Wednesday, October 6, 2010
10/7/10 Who's Next
Alcoa. This stock looks as if it's ready to head for the teens. But that's exactly why I'm leery, and have no plans to trade it ahead of earnings. A safer play may be to either go long/short XLE on a good/bad reaction to the news. Or as The Who might put it:
When my fist clenches, crack it open
Before I use it and lose my cool
When I smile, tell me some bad news
Before I laugh and act like a fool
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Tried to pick up my HERO AH, but no dice.
ReplyDeleteKyle- All I could find was a large put block on it today that appears to be a hedge against a large position also opened.
V filled @ 74.10
EQIX filled @ 70.50
I won't mess around to much with EQIX. I did as much DD as possible this AM. The wording of the guidance sucked, but their projected #'s aren't that crazy. I think traders are just pissed off at management for getting hung out to dry. Can't blame them really. We'll see.
A few months ago, the CEO of AA claimed that his company was poised to excel in case of a stronger dollar. Unfortunately he didn't expound much on the subject...
ReplyDeleteAA - I wonder if there's any connection with this chemical effluent spill supposedly from an alumina plant? I heard about this subject early this morning but it didn't click at the time:
ReplyDelete"Toxic Sludge Turns Hungary Town Into Red Ocean
Deadly Sludge Could Flow Into Danube River, Threatening Six More Countries
By JESSICA HOPPER
October 6, 2010 "
http://abcnews.go.com/WN/toxic-sludge-turns-hungary-town-ocean-red-fears/story?id=11817330&page=1
Maybe not, I've never heard of MAL Zrt:
ReplyDelete"The Ajkai Timfoldgyar Zrt plant, owned by MAL Zrt."
Here's their web page:
ReplyDeletehttp://english.mal.hu/engine.aspx?page=bemutatkozunk
The good news is they use Varian spectroscopy and ion-chromatography equipment for their chemical analysis...
ReplyDeleteVarian's instrument division was bought out by Agilent Technologies, ticker (A).
ReplyDeleteCP- I was just thinking the same thing ;) I suggest we both be careful here with CADC.
ReplyDeleteHeard on the radio today WFC has not stopped any foreclosures and was "cleared", if that is the right term, by frannie/freddie. Also opening 200, I think, branches on the east cost to service private banking clients. MOG is one and likes whatever that service is.
ReplyDeleteI don't think I've been "serviced" since college :(
Mark, I had the impression you were interested in cutting CADC loose? I nearly sold half once I saw the price began to decay from the peak but it remained above it's opening price so I just held...
ReplyDeleteI'm still convinced it's priced incorrectly but that doesn't mean the market won't take it down again...
Up to $5510 in papertrade now. Gold trades round the clock, so there are more opportunities. About 4 more winning trades, no losers since last post.
ReplyDeleteIts a PITA entering the stops, but it forces me to notice and think, and DECIDE where support is, and decide the size of the position based on its profit/loss potential, which is something I have tended to skip over in the past.
WFC really needs to open shop on the East Coast. Perhaps you're referring to "self-service"?
ReplyDeleteFruity Nut Roll? "Calif. budget plan relies on accounting maneuvers"
ReplyDeleteCP- Not really, just letting the price action dictate any trades. It poked above 3.81 once and closed that day at 3.73. Same as today. 3 other times it was rejected right at 3.81 on the penny, same as today. If it doesn't get through here very soon, I'd give up if I were a buyer.
ReplyDeleteJust the way I see it. I know you'll do what's best for you.
CP- You must have forgotten I'm married. That's the definition of "self-service." :)
ReplyDeleteWell, the RSI(7) is well into the 70's and it may be turning down but I do like the action on the 50SMA retest.
ReplyDeleteIf the market "collapses", CADC probably won't display an immunity.
CP- NOTHING is immune if we sell off hard. Nothing.
ReplyDeleteWhat c'ya want for breakfast honey? Get it yourself, nuttin-bits!
ReplyDeleteFWIW- If I were here when EQIX filled I would have sold it on the bounce to 72ish.
ReplyDeleteTOF- Thanks for the comments on NLS.
ReplyDeleteJB- Re- EQIX...I suspect a lot of this is due to increased concerns re big players moving into the space. Your take?
ReplyDeleteTudor Pickering comment today
ReplyDelete“You can own gassy E&Ps for optionality and stock specific situations, but owning in size is waiting game that will underperform oily peers for foreseeable future.”
Not sure if you guys saw this the other day. My grizzled gas veteran contact thought this had a lot to do with the weakness in the forward calendar strips. Maybe they will level off now but I have not read anything recommending buying natty now.
Chesapeake Sells Output to Barclays for $1.15 Billion
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-10-04/chesapeake-sold-volumetric-production-payment-for-1-15-billion.html?cmpid=yhoo
BNP Paribas is showing an est storage injection of +78 for tomorrow. Last year the number was 68. CIBC is showing +80.
I liked what MON had to say in their latest earnings call transcript. I just placed a buy stop limit order for 100 shares at $50/50.05, so as to catch it in the morning in case it shoots up after today's post-announcement shakeout.
ReplyDeleteJust reading through some old stuff tonight:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/08/aftermath-of-secular-bear-markets/
I decided to cancel the sell stop order under my GLD since I have already sold some CEF today and purchased one put on FCX. If metals start their collapse tomorrow, I'll still feel like I've reduced my exposure at the very top, which is enough for me. If metals continue to ramp up, I'll keep scaling out of CEF (at $18 and $19) while adding one slightly out of the money FCX put for each $5 rise in the stock from the current levels.
ReplyDeleteBloomberg consensus on storage is for +79 Bcf injection. Seasonal norms are +69 Bcf.
ReplyDeleteport
Landry-
ReplyDeleteRandom Thoughts:
The Ps ended flat so there's not too much to report there.
Some brick and mortar type stocks actually ended higher--hence the Dow tacking on a few points.
What has me concerned is the action in tech. The Nasdaq didn't come unglued but a lot of individual high flyers were hit fairy hard.
As usual, follow through will be key.
I'm still seeing setups though. However, in light of this lack of follow through, make sure you wait for entries. That in and of itself might keep you out of trouble.
Futures are firming pre-market so we might get another stab at follow through today.
Don't forget to call in sick--Chart show at 11:00 AM EST.
Best of luck with your trading today!
Shark...random thoughts.....
ReplyDeletePAL in play today.
DXY breaks down and just as I had predicted a few weeks back, the government goes to war with
China...at stake....Our global competitiveness.
Other random thoughts......Yankees suck!
shark - Looks like Bill wants to kiss and make up with you... He wants you to come trade with him in the Bahamas...
ReplyDeleteDuring the next six months I will be discussing my own Group of 20, all independent traders like myself who may wish to co-develop with me a one-of-a-kind trader’s village (condo’s for living and co-op’s for working and playing) sited in tax-free Bahamas, near the Nassau International Airport, combined with an upscale boutique hotel of about 100 rooms. If you have a minimum $1 million investable funds and are seeking to work alongside managers of hedge funds and family offices, please feel free to contact me at village@caratrading.com. I have the land plus the requisite permits and plans in place and could possibly break ground this year for occupancy and start-up within 18 months. I am aware of nothing like this for traders in the world. As soon as we close on this one, I will organize a similar one for Freeport Bahamas.
Added to RAS at opening at $1.77.
ReplyDeleteEQIX off @ 71.50. 2% is enough.
ReplyDeleteKyle,
ReplyDeletethat sounds awesome and one more reason I continue to be a big fan of bcara.
Very brilliant !
sharkie, you should go for this
kyle,
ReplyDeletere-read, apologies, looks like you are the brilliant one (although, i am a fan of bc)
Dang...Looks like I got shaken out of EQIX. Risky trade really, so I can't really complain.
ReplyDeletevb - no, this is a bc thing...I'm just passing it along from his morning blog remarks.
ReplyDeleteOn a more serious note,
PCX - Coals were strong yday. Watching the pullback to see how it unfolds.
Fast currents.
ReplyDeletevb- You're out of REDF, right?
ReplyDeletehi 2nd,
ReplyDeleteout of most of it. should i dump rest?
I would.
ReplyDeleteyeah, def seeing lower lows (redf)
ReplyDeleteI'm such a frigin lightweight.
ReplyDeleteAdded more RAS at $1.78. Now with my BYD, NLS, and RAS holdings I'm about 85% long. I'm pretty heavy in BYD.
ReplyDeletePCX - Nice climb-out of a DB @ 12.99 round 9:50
ReplyDeletePersonally, I think we're going down. We need a pull back.
ReplyDelete2nd - if the jobs numbers are good tomorrow then ironically we will most likely gap higher and sell off.
ReplyDeleteFast Currents/ TZA hedge newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4711 comments) on Thu, 10/07/2010 - 10:44 #70985
ReplyDeleteWe need to pull back- that's true whether we continue higher through the remainder of the month, or whether we pull back more significantaly as part of normal consolidation.
Opened a very small (small enough to carry) position in TZA as a hedge @ 24.34.
GL guys... CP, keep buying more CADC today! ;)
ReplyDeleteOK, second leg down for UNG. Bidding 5.80. I'll look to reopen my gas plays if they follow along. So far they are holding up pretty well.
ReplyDeleteCADC - I'll keep buying until it reaches $6, gotta make this work! ;)
ReplyDeleteguys - whats the fascination with UNG? It looks it's just a broken ETF?
ReplyDeletePMI - Check it out...
ReplyDeleteUNG - Some day in the future it's gonna fly on contango reversal?
ReplyDeleteUNG will fly the day after Pigs do....
ReplyDeleteAnd why is it the beautiful women always fall for the pricks?
ReplyDeletePWER - nice gap up open, pullback then continuation
ReplyDeletejust as I suspected, CREE looks like it's ready to fall to the low to mid 40s, at which point I think it would be a decent point to start going long the stock.
ReplyDeleteRe: Fast Currents/ TZA hedge closed newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4712 comments) on Thu, 10/07/2010 - 11:58 #70992 (in reply to #70985)
ReplyDeleteTZA closed @ 24.65. I'm just going to stay out of the water.
EBAY - Was definitely a set it and forget it play, wasn't it?
ReplyDeleteREDF & SIFY - spike
ReplyDeleteKyle - If I were willing to trade both sides on this I would be shorting this spike in REDF. But I refuse to do that and will only spectate.
ReplyDeleteTMV - Looking good to go? Maybe it already got up and went...???
ReplyDeleteDEER - This one's been doing well, I guess all those empty apartments in Beijing need to look like they're lived in (so as not to be taxed) and what better way to accomplish the feat than by loading it with electricity consuming appliances?
ReplyDeletesold some NLS at $1.32. Moving to a higher cash position because I want to buy some more RAS and BYD.
ReplyDeleteBYD - Testing the 50SMA then a home run?
ReplyDeleteAdded more BYD at $7.55. Position size is official too large.
ReplyDeleteSMH - Green
ReplyDeleteCan copper still reach $3.90 by Thanksgiving?
ReplyDeleteI say yes!
Today's malaise: Seems like China has attempted a counter move in the currency war, doesn't it?
ReplyDeleteGRMN - Oh lookie there, it's green...
ReplyDeletejust got long pal
ReplyDeleteHey check out Gasco GSX....
Looking good eh? Thinking of buying gsx
Although Joe Biden wasn't there to recover the presidential seal as it fell off Obama's podium, it's good to know Hilary was there to catch it!
ReplyDeleteDon't worry about me. I'm here and pulled my ung bid. Might open after the floor close.
ReplyDeleteStill bidding BYD like I said yesterday at the 50. 7.50.
I suspect NLS is going to move higher soon. There have been several chances for the stock to sell off via mini selloffs but each time it comes back.
ReplyDelete"Growth Enough To Support Commodities
ReplyDeleteChinese gross domestic product growth peaked in the first quarter of this year but will still be strong enough to boost demand for key commodity products in 2011, a senior executive at Bank of America Merrill Lynch said Tuesday.
David Goodman, global co-head of commodities, said GDP growth peaked in the first quarter of 2010 at 11.9%, and will slow to 9% in the fourth quarter.
"But GDP growth of 9% is still strong enough to boost oil, coal, iron ore and copper demand next year," he told the Commodities Week conference in London.
"We think that 33% of oil demand will come from China alone," he added. This makes it difficult to argue that China isn't key to investor strategies, Goodman said.
Bank of America-Merrill Lynch continues to see overall growth in China going forward, Goodman said.
-By Andrea Hotter, Dow Jones Newswires; +44 (0)20 7842 9413; andrea.hotter@dowjones.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
10-06-10 1158ET"
CP- Andrea Hotter? You might be posting on the wrong site.
ReplyDeleteYo Pinhead! (JB)....What you doing?
ReplyDeleteLet me see if I can lose only a little (rather than a lot) of money shorting REDF now. Placed a sell short limit order at $5.00 for 1000 shares. REDF had two spikes today to $5.05, so if my order is executed, then I'll place a buy to cover stop at $5.08.
ReplyDeleteThe spread in November $5 puts on REDF is not very kind to put buyers (or sellers for that matter): bid 0, ask 1.15.
ReplyDelete"You might be posting on the wrong site."
ReplyDeleteNo comprendo, help me out on this one... I provided her email address, what more could one want? I'm afraid you're on your own from there my friend... ;)
David - SIFY isn't giving up any gains...might be an indicator of how REDF ends up today.
ReplyDeleteSidenote:
Look at NLS just absorb that selling and stand its ground. 3 tests of $1.25 seem to have been sufficient enough for now.
CP- :)
ReplyDeleteOK, 650 shares of REDF so far were shorted at $5.00 for me. The daily chart shows that today's high was actually at $5.12, but I hope that with only 30 min remaining in the trading day, REDF will close below $5 and hence will make a lower high between today and Tuesday.
ReplyDeleteOK, all 1000 shares of REDF were shorted at $5.00. Let's see how this saga ends. :)
ReplyDeleteMSFT in talks to buy ADBE.
ReplyDeleteMy buy limit order for 500 shares of HNUZF was hit today at $3.25. The most unpleasant thing about today's drop is that November futures are down much more today than December ones, so once UNG and HNUZF fully roll over to December futures next week, this relative loss will become permanent. Crap...
ReplyDeleteOnly imbalance I can find today was BUY- AA.
ReplyDeleteDavid- What's the roll day for UNG? Wed.?
ReplyDeleteMark: I think UNG rolls around the 14th of the month, so Wednesday is a good guess. Hopefully today was the capitulation day for NG holders...
ReplyDeleteI am placing a buy to cover stop limit order for REDF just above Tuesday's intraday high, at $5.30/$5.35. My maximum loss on this trade is $350, which is exactly the profit I made shorting it the first time. If I give back that profit, I'll still be OK. Life is life. I am losing much more on HNUZF now, so the few hundred bucks lost on REDF would be noise for my portfolio. :)
ReplyDeleteAA - Initial reaction is positive, 3rd-Q income off 21% doesn't sound very good to me though...
ReplyDelete#imbalance Summary: $200,462,704 x $2,794,842
ReplyDeleteHussman's prediction
ReplyDeleteSubmitted by DavidV (31 comments) on Thu, 10/07/2010 - 19:05 #71034
On August 23, John Hussman titled his weekly commentary as follows: "Why Quantitative Easing is Likely to Trigger a Collapse of the U.S. Dollar." So those who listened to him back then and immediately invested a lot of money in gold/silver got rewarded handsomely.
Here is an excerpt from that commentary:
"In short, quantitative easing is likely to induce what the late MIT economist Rudiger Dornbusch described as "exchange rate overshooting" - a large and abrupt shift in the spot exchange rate that occurs in order to align long-term equilibrium in the market for goods and services with short-term equilibrium in the capital markets."
This suggests that the collapse of the $USD we are witnessing now will stop at some point and will turn into a gradual appreciation of $USD, until the next round of QE is announced. The recent rally in PMs will have a very violent reversal at that point, when people realize that $USD will not keep falling forever but in fact will start *appreciating* over the short-to-medium term.
David- GL. Even with a small position I couldn't make that trade over night. A gap above my stop scares the hell out of me.
ReplyDeleteDougKass
ReplyDeletei am renting a short in adbe at 28.60 because i think the msft/adbe story is not true, if it was msft would have been weaker $$
6.78 closes the gap in REE.
ReplyDeleteTRID - Broke out on Needham upgrade, will it stick?
ReplyDeleteREE - Just retesting the 20SMA?
ReplyDeleteMark - that comment from Doug Kass is a perfect example of how crazy it is people give him so much weight on CNBC. the dude is 100% a trader. nothing wrong with that but he has had so many bad calls over the past couple of years. yet when he makes a good call he gloats and people call him a genius. if he had more humility i would probably listen to him. i've heard him on fast money a few times and he has a habit of talking over people just to get his point across. seems like a pretty annoying guy.
ReplyDelete