TOF- Agreed. Would you be happy right now if he was trading your $'s on THAT? Missed BYD today by .03. Maybe tomorrow. Still working NLS through my head.CP- I give some weight to CADC's price action today. Just wish the damn thing had some liquidity.
TZA - I'm seriously considering taking a position, hope I didn't miss an opportunity today.CADC - Mark, liquidity can be considered an expensive luxury.
David- If I recall correctly, you have position sizing protection in place, so I don't feel too bad about the post. TZA and UNG/HNU.to-> Man, we should all have shorted both of them. So we missed the top? It wasn't too late even last month. They should take these two dogs out back and put them to sleep...
2nd_ave -- I was adding to HNUZF in laughably small sizes (in chunks of about $2000), so my account is still not completely destroyed by it. Right now I have about 8% of my port in HNUZF. Once it starts tracking the December futures (next Friday), I'll seriously considering doubling my position, since contango will pretty much be out of the picture by then.
Mark, when REDF was shooting up, it was doing so mostly during the day and its gap ups were very small. So I seriously doubt that REDF can gap up above my limit at $5.35. Anything can happen, but I think the odds are on my side now.
That's the beauty of small position sizing- a position could to go zero, and still leave >90% of your portfolio untouched.
Notice how ADBE spiked at the least likely time and for an impossible-to-predict reason. Classic market action. It's like throwing my last green chip on 'Tie' at the baccarat table and walking away expecting to lose- only to have them call me back to collect my chips.
Tomorrow's employment numbers could be the catalyst we're all waiting for- either way. I can't bet ahead of the release, but trading on Friday should be quite a bit more exciting than it was today. My only problem is limited access- I'll be tied up at work for much of the morning.
Doesn't trouble usually come in threes? I've completely lost count, which explains why I'm feeling lost.... Isn't Rome still burning, anybody here been keeping count?!?!?"Cash-strapped US state cancels massive tunnel project– Thu Oct 7, 5:43 pm ETNEW YORK (AFP) – The governor of cash-strapped New Jersey on Thursday terminated work on a multi-billion dollar train tunnel linking New Jersey and Manhattan, one of the country's largest infrastructure projects.Governor Chris Christie's office said the project, which has been in the planning for two decades, said the project was expected to substantially exceed its current budget of 8.7 billion dollars, reaching at least 11 billion dollars.Following a 30-day review of the project, his office said "the ARC project will be terminated and staff will immediately begin an expeditious and orderly shutdown.""http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20101007/ts_alt_afp/usinfrastructuretransport
"I'll be tied up at work for much of the morning."You something's amiss when these kinds of posts repeatedly show up here... ;)
Yes, well you'll notice I didn't elaborate on how I'll be tied up or in what position.
Exactly what have the sneaky Pete's been up to lately and further proof of legislators asleep at the wheel? Surprise, surprise!!! This kind of crap goes on all the time in WDC, it's what we pay taxes for, right? Is it any wonder we have an economy at all?"Obama kills foreclosure bill as fury mounts"" By Caren Bohan and Scot J. Paltrow Caren Bohan And Scot J. Paltrow – Thu Oct 7, 4:26 pm ETWASHINGTON (Reuters) – President Barack Obama killed proposed legislation on Thursday that struck at the heart of growing political rage over how banks have moved to evict struggling borrowers from their homes.The bill, which would have made it more difficult for homeowners to challenge foreclosures, came under the spotlight this week as the furor grew over disclosures that some of the biggest U.S. mortgage processors filed false affidavits in thousands of foreclosure cases.Obama sent the bill back to the House of Representatives for further discussion on how it would affect the foreclosure crisis, one of the most visible signs of the deep economic problems gripping the country."http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/us_usa_housing_whitehouse;_ylt=AlWD13feFIET.LB3q17VPgvZa7gF;_ylu=X3oDMTM3OWZraThvBGFzc2V0Ay9zL25tL3VzX3VzYV9ob3VzaW5nX3doaXRlaG91c2UEY2NvZGUDbXBfZWNfOF8xMARjcG9zAzMEcG9zAzMEc2VjA3luX3RvcF9zdG9yaWVzBHNsawNvYmFtYWtpbGxzZm8-
I don't know guys, we may have an even larger housing mess on our hands soon, I recommend this read:http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/10072010_foreclosure_legality.asp
At least China started off green, hopefully it remains that way...
Went back to real money trading today. Yesterday was enough to prove the concept. Today I tried to apply it in the real world, with more limited position sizes till my confidence level improves. Played TZA during the day and a bit of Gold Futures. Again, as with the play world yesterday, I ended up cancelling as many orders as I traded, but I'm getting better at the mechanics of doing it.Anyway, results for the day was 6 wins, 1 loss, net of $1000 profit.On the subject of profits, I tallied up 2010 so far, as part of completing 2009 taxes, and to be honest, I don't FEEL like I'm doing so well, even though I've been averaging double or triple my daily goal. Unfortunately it means the goal should be higher, at least $1000, and more like $1500 or $2000 a day, not $500. What's the point of doing this if after meeting and exceeding your goal, you feel like you didn't do well? Maybe its just that I did so well in 2009, that makes it harder to be "happy with" a dramatically lower number for 2010. What makes it so tough is that 90% of 2009's profit was in GSS, RBY and NGD (incl WGW), and only a small amount of profit came from what I'd call "trading". Maybe there is a lesson in that, but to be honest, I don't see values like those out there to invest in today.
So $500/day isn't enough, or is it not your potential? I'd suggest that whatever your goal, you should not take on too much risk so you're not put in a position that's unrecoverable, and you should at least cover your daily expenses + time and effort?FD: I'm probably much more frugal than anyone you may know, so I don't have to make money on a daily basis although it would be nice to.
"take these dogs outback and put them to sleep"HA!!! i needed thatFYI - i hung on to my dead dog till it hit 5.00 and then cut the leash. so broke even on that one - maybe a little upI also followed my lucky star, tof, into ebay and byd - hope everyone is doing okay. :)
Here is what is being searched for Yahoo YTRENDING NOW1.1.Kim Kardashian2.Dracula Fish3.John Lennon FBI4.Food Stamps5.NHL Tickets6.Venus Williams7.Yoda Bat8.Arthritis9.Arizona Tornado10.Bankruptcy
cp,I only spend $4000 a month incl college tuition, etc, so I only actually NEED to make $200 or $250 a day to keep from spending any of my savings. Its more that it just isn't FUN if I can't make $1000 a day. I don't want to have to ADMIT it if I couldn't make $1000 a day.
LOL, our spending is 1/3 insurance, 1/3 college, 1/3 everything else combined.
tof is right, UNG is a dog. I have 800 shares at an average of $6.44. I’m holding on to them now but I’m thinking we have a little more downside first. The Nov/Dec and Dec/Jan spreads are ugly.One thing I missed is that the natty calendar strips for cal 2012 and 2013 have turned up over the last couple of weeks but 2011 seems to have a nice steady drop. Let me know if anyone wants to see the charts on the calendars or the spreads or any other charts for the futures. I used to post some natty charts on cc from time to time but I don’t think they add any value so I stopped.The rig counts dropped a little last week. Let’s see how they look tomorrow.On Doug Kass, I used to subscribe to RealMoney Silver and he was the first person I recall talking about the low in March 2009. He was also the first commentator I heard to set a target for the SPY at 1000 by the end of the summer of 2009. I think he started shorting it after it passed 1000 and I think he’s been wrong on most of his calls since then, at least the calls I was paying attn to.
Well, I got to $1500 playing gold futures, so now I feel better :)
Since I sold 1/3 of my CEF at $17.30 yesterday and purchased one FCX put, I decided to remove the stop under my remaining CEF. If PMs collapse now, I'll make money on the FCX put and will then reload CEF at a lower price, so I won't let that decline go to waste and will make some money off it.
made $1520 so far playing gold futures. Got stopped out one time, all other trades winners. That's enough for a while.
also, reloaded wife's DGP sub $38 in premkt. She wants to hold it till next May or so...I suggested she sell if gold hits $1600+. Who knows anything anymore?
Gotta be honest, todays jobs report makes me really worried about my longs.
Now at $2210 for the day, still playing gold.
Yet I still managed to buy more BYD at $7.6
Looks like BYD and I are not meant to be. Had an order in @ 7.50 that didn't fill this AM.
I'm a little worried that my firm belief that BYD is going to get bought out might cause me to hold on to BYD too long. The way I see it:1.) MGM is being forced by the state to sell it's stake in the Borgata which is a prime property.2.) BYD has first dibs on the remaining 50% stake.3.) BYD doesn't have the capacity to raise more debt.4.) If BYD doesn't have the capacity to raise more debt then it must find a suitor for the purchase of the remaining stake. 5.) Why would someone want to buy out BYD if BYD can't raise the capital needed to buy the rest of the Borgata? Because if they don't then someone else will step in and do it. And if that doesn't happen it will go to a bidding war and the ultimate price someone else pays is going to be higher than just buying out BYD.
now at $3070, still playing gold fut
David- You see SGG is trading at 76?
Hey now!David gets the Evil Knievel "what goes up must come down" award of the day for REDF, the downward dog:):)Any of you guys watching the HBO show "Boardwalk Empire" with Steve Buscemi? Check it out, it's mighty good.
Shark - yeah i'm watching that show...it's great. I'd also recommend checking out Eastbound & Down, easily one of the funniest shows and characters ever created.
I already told you guys you cant think of this as an "each day every day" business like the bearded Russian does by necessity. It is not.The money is made on a fairly small prcentage of the plays, a fairly small percentage of the days, on average. It 'aint about 400 a day. It's about riding the hundred k worth of RBY, for example, from about 3.50 to 4.20 (I know Bob owned it lower but I'm talking about where the move became obvious) making 20 grand, and then waiting a couple of weeks til I tell you which junior miner is next, like ANO was and will be, as they announced they are doubling their platinum output in the next few years.:)Anooraq....Don't hate them because they're black....Love them because they will make you money:)
TOF/CP- Take a look at DCTH on the fundy side. Chart is interesting.
Not another day like this, please.
now at $3590 for the day. Doing pretty well with gold futures. Better than I expected, actually.
Go Cheapy!!!...GL Giant fans!!!
Shark, the higher the price, the greater the risk, and when you put 1/3, 1/2 all, or 150% of assets (ie margining over a million shares of a $3.00 miner) into a stock like I did, its not easy to get out if you decide you were wrong.20 cents doesn't justify that kind of risk. It takes 4 or 5 DAYS to sell when I load up. That's why I take a doubling or tripling, or quadrupling of my money and walk away, usually
Highest drawdown for the day was sub $1000, and only used a total less than $50k of my accounts to do it, so I consider that a big win in terms of only stopping out once for the day, and the rest winners.LOL, not that I'd want to increase the position size any. I got up to 8 contracts there. If it turned against me, losses would rack up quickly...
Busy morning for me. I exited all of my RAS at $1.75 which was a small profit for me all told. I also exited NLS at between $1.28 and $1.32 for a small loss. I'm now really heavily into BYD and nothing else. Kinda just sitting on my hands right now not sure where the market will go. I do see the VIX down at its lows so it sure looks like we could be going to 1,170 but it's so damn volatile right now. I just want BYD to be bought out already so I can take a break...and maybe put some money into WATG, IMMR, and EBAY all of which I love long term. Speaking of casinos I saw that Penn National bought out a casino...that's probably added some fuel to the fire that is the casinos today. M&A Speculation.Mark - DCTH...I won't have time to look at it today but I do recall looking at it a while ago and not liking it for some reason...can't remember why.
Good morning Vietnam! This is not a test! This is rock and roll! Time to rock it from the Delta to the D.M.Z.!
Holy shit...1.3 million share trade just went through on BYD.
PMI - Kicks butt!
Bob. Considering what you've told me, and believe me, it is out of ignorance that I ask this so go easy on me, butDoes it really make sense to buy that much on margin when you have enough cash to buy a more approprately sized position in case the shit goes south on you in a major way?I'm just asking. Like, since your stated goal is a hundred k a years, and since you seem to be pretty good at buying good positions, then doing the math on the back of my napkin here it would seem that you could achieve your monetary goals more safely by taking on less leverage. How does that scenario compute? Like, if I traded at a bank and had oodles of free leverage, that's one risky thing, but paying interest on margin to risk it personally is quite another, no?
Shark, I averaged $8000 profit a day, then, and was trying to get from being unemployed to being comfortably retired. I already won. I could spend $2000 a week till I'm 100 and not run out of money, so at this point, its not that I NEED to make $500 or $1500 a day, its just that I WANT to, to prove to myself that I can, and that it wasn't just luck.Its sorta like playing pinball all night on 1 dime, and leaving the machine maxxed out with 40 free games on it at the end of the night. Its beating the game that makes it fun. Otherwise I'd just go race, get a boat, or fix that old pinball machine...
GMO....guess they did get that zoning variance...go long that shit immediately.
will buy it soon in the 390s
GMO - The Hanlong financing Chinese government approval deadline is Oct. 13th, rumor is approval is forthcoming
Probaly a wrong asshole but I did buy SOME gmo in the 3.90's kind of a lark.
GMO - GMO announces confirmation of approval:General Moly Announces Hanlong's Receipt of Key Chinese Governmental Approvalhttp://finance.yahoo.com/news/General-Moly-Announces-bw-1019814517.html?x=0&.v=1
Ok, last post on BYD, I swear...Check out the 2009 financials for the Borgata:http://www.state.nj.us/casinos/financia/qtrincome/2009/4th%20Quarter/borgata.pdfHighlights:Operating Income: $204,385,000Dep/Amort: $78,719,000Net Income: $108,241,000Cash From from Ops: $193,634,000Cap Ex: $(17,889,000)FCF: $175,745,000So essentially BYD is trading at 8 times their share of the Borgatas FCF and 12 times their share of Net Income. Remember they have 1st dibs on the remaning 50%. This property alone is worth about $1.5 to $2 Billion. Yet BYD is trading at about $700 Million market cap. Hmmmm.
Got it Bob. That puts the matter in a different light:)Chicken what's the approval re GMO really all about, you seem to know:)Still in it to win it GMO>
Good job TOF/CP. I can't believe how many trades I tried to make this week only to miss by a few pennies. Cost me about 5K I'm guessing.
TOF- Keep an eye on MGM also. Their both trading on the same pattern today.
If BAC can't hold here, it could go back to 12.15.
CMEGroup Yesterday was a record in trading gold options at the exchange with 102,292 contracts traded $GC_F
"David- You see SGG is trading at 76?" I know, it's crazy. When are we finally going to learn to ride the trend???
"David gets the Evil Knievel "what goes up must come down" award of the day for REDF, the downward dog:):)"shark, I wish I had done that with ESLR. :))
Hopefully soon David.
I have just lowered my sell stop on REDF to $5.05/$5.10, so as to exit this trade essentially flat if REDF turns up again.
Mark - yeah i've been watching all of the casino stocks today. they're all on fire after the report that revenues on the strip were up 21% last month year over year. just lends further credence to the idea that BYD is undervalued. they have huge operating leverage should things turn around in vegas. there's heavy duty short interest in MGM and BYD too.
David - I think you might be better off just taking profits when you can on a short on REDF no? the thing is quite volatile.
Also, my buy stop order on MON was triggered at $50 this morning. It now looks pretty obvious that MON is going to be in a long-term downtrend, after making a double bottom and finally responding favorably to the management forecast in the earnings announcement. Let's see if I'll be able to ride THIS trend up.
Still fun watching NLS...Right at the edge of a cliff. Does it fall off or get pulled back to safety?
Since my account is still net long now with respect to the market, I have just added one more November put on FCX, this time with a strike of $95 for $5.15.
I decided to raise my buy to cover stop on REDF just a little, to $5.11/$5.15, so as to decrease the chance of being stopped out by a late day spike. The REDF looks and feels VERY sluggish this week, and the only decent rally on Tuesday was sold pretty quickly. So I want to hold that short a little longer, since sluggish action after a huge advance usually implies a gradual slide down.
TZA/VXX? Actually, they look good here. Opening @ 25.53/16.43 newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4716 comments) on Fri, 10/08/2010 - 15:48 #71090 At some point, the short squeeze ends. I have no idea if it ends here, but I think these ETFs are due for a little upside.
Imbalances...BUY- C/BAC/WFCSELL- AA/GS/JPM
GMO - Shark, as you probably remember, GMO had announced a new investor (Hanlong) had made an offer to arrange the financing necessary to bring the Mt. Hope mine to full production with certain conditions.One of the necessary conditions was Chinese government approval, which today was confirmed.Where are we today and what are we awaiting?* Certificate for overseas investment approval (forthcoming, next few days).* Final confirmation of actual financing arrangement.* Public release of BLM Draft Environmental Impact Statement (Currently BLM Preliminary Draft Environmental Impact statement is under review by State Engineer) by EOY.* Public approval of DEIS.* State Engineer grant of water rights permit.* Maybe some other kind of permits to begin actual excavation, probably only a formality.I recommend reading this article in addition to the most recent earnings statement, etc. available on GMO's website:www.generalmoly.comhttp://finance.yahoo.com/news/General-Moly-Announces-bw-1019814517.html?x=0&.v=1Personally, I suspect in order to reap the rewards, one must maintain a holding at the time of key announcements throughout the process.
Short Squeeze - That's funny, were shorts actually awaiting a better than expected employment report along with a subsequent sell off?I believe bulls were awaiting an employment disappointment in anticipation of FED action and end of day selling came from nervous momentum players in the face of the WDC currency talks/decisions scheduled for this weekend.I don't really expect much to come from Washington considering CONgress is on vacation once again, but the ball may be back in Uncle Ben's court now???Or has Ben already spoken this afternoon?
Actually, a good portion of today's action was probably attributable to momentum players capitalizing on a no-brainer opportunity.
GMO - Excluding today's action, I have the intraweek high as $3.88. Notice real buyers stepped in at that level, so I wonder what percentage of momentum players were burned?
REDF will stop going down when instead of making opening spikes and then red closes, it will have opening drops and then green closes.
David - not to nitpick but REDF did that yesterday.
Any of you guys remember Leisa (perplexed investor) from CC? She posts a lot now on SOH and is really good. Anyway, today she commented about why she left. No need to guess why. I went back and read the comments from a day in Dec. 2008. Man, what a shame. I really miss some of those guys/gals.
Mark, do you think we can get Leisa to double post at our blog as well? Maybe you can send her a message through CC inviting her to this blog?
TOF: REDF indeed had a reasonably bullish intraday action yesterday, but it formed a lower high w.r.t. Tuesday, and that's why I shorted it yesterday. Its bullish intraday pattern did not appear today, which is why I decided to hold my short until next week.
the muni crisis coming? Submitted by DavidV (32 comments) on Sat, 10/09/2010 - 01:42 #71130Here is a good article by Brian Pretti from Financial Sense Online:http://tinyurl.com/2d5g229where he suggests that investor's response to QE will not be that positive if QE is done for some unexpected reason, such as bailing out failing municipalities. He is mentioning a couple of municipal bond funds and is suggesting that a decline in their prices will be an early warning of the muni problem becoming a big issue. Both of those funds have peaked over the past month and one of them started making a clear series of lower highs.Brian is also suggesting that a pretty big QE will be needed this time around, bigger than QE1. So if we don't get such a high QE in November, the market may sell off. Or it may sell off in October, so as to make it easier for Bernanke to do a large round of QE.
IMO, we are in the first stages of hyper inflation, where people buy stocks and hard assets because they know these things will rise as people flee the collapsing currency.It amazes me that the Fed actually intends this. They sure aren't very good students of history. Wouldn't it be wiser to just tell the nation it has to live within its means, than to risk the potential fall from a yet higher, more dangerous height? Aren't things bad enough without risking a complete currency collapse?
Morning Bob- Might be. Harvest forecast sure as hell didn't help. Probably see a lot more limit locks on Monday.Looks like your having success with your "new" system. Good job.
CP- Thought you might want to read this.http://seekingalpha.com/article/228510-xinyuan-real-estate-probably-the-most-undervalued-stock-on-the-nyse
Mark - As you know, I had considered XIN, and another Chinese RE play and I do agree that they are, or were, undervalued but have concentrated my focus primarily on GMO/CADC.So I'm now back to all-time portfolio high's and struggling mightily with an urge to sell.Pigs get eaten? Well, I'm still long...
CVS - Took a sudden hit but partially recovered.
Mark - The Onion should offer a stock picks column, I think they'd outperform.
CP- Yeah, their really clever.
Enjoy the day guys...Off to the killing fields of soccer.
Mark,I remember Leisa fondly.She probably left for the same reason everyone else left except for Bull Hunter who doesn't seem to mind the fact that Bill's a major asshole:)
There is someone who is more asshole than shark? That's a surprise.
Yea, I hear he sometimes goes by the name "Shark-kicker", and other times by "Anonymous".Although he's probably just a run of the mill coward, some might contend it qualifies as Cyberstalking:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyberstalking
"...run of the mill coward.."You mean shark is a very brave, and what he does barking at Bill here is a reflection of his bravery... yep, got it! Or biting at Bull Hunter's ankle because a day ago Bull Hunter said something not too flattering about shark... got it again.
Glad you approve
Harvest article from the WSJ....http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704657304575540251765885876.html
JJG - Anybody? Grains were limit up last session, so this could get interesting...???
kick a shark = lose a leg!:)HAHAHAa...I guess Bill himself is now posting here at TT:)
2nd, You may enjoy this, it's about the brain and Marc Yu, a child prodigy concert pianist.http://tinyurl.com/2c5mcg4
"lose a leg?"Was it another one of your empty threats? You already tried to threaten me with physical violence once. Sure you want to go there again? Because, you know, sooner or later you will slip and post something allowing me to meet you and give you this chance. And more you insult people who really worth something, more motivated I feel.
Natty, the last commodity still in bear market territory, rig count info below"Natural Gas Rig Count The natural gas rig count decreased for the second time in many weeks to 962 rigs (a loss of 5 from the previous week). Despite the weekly decline, the number of gas-directed rigs are just 30 short of an 18-month high reached during mid-August and have rebounded strongly after bottoming out to a 7-year low of 665 on July 17, 2009. Still, the rig count remains 40% lower than its peak of 1,606 in late summer 2008. In the year-ago period, there were 712 active natural gas rigs."http://www.zacks.com/stock/news/41004/Rig+Count+Up+Despite+Natgas+Slip+
for the sake of any doubters/bears on this board I really hope you didn't go heavy on the short side on friday cuz this is shaping up to be yet another gap up. look at the china markets.
i'll admit that the jobs numbers were weak but i'm not even close to shorting this thing...there is just too much vested interest in having this thing go higher and too many doubters/skeptics for it to crash. at least that's what i'm thinking.
oh a side note, for you San Fran boys, how about alex smith making a stand here...
TOF- I closed my eyes for the Giants and it worked. Doing the same for the 49ers!!
haha. well, the niners have a real dilemma here. i didn't realize they had a shot at going for mcnabb...bad move.
TOF, I see that Russell 2000 futures are up only 0.19% now. So the chances of a gap up at this point are pretty much the same as those of a gap down.
As for vested interests in the market, it may very well be the case that they favor a move down to 1040 on the S&P so as to get a better QE2 package from Bernanke. After all, if the Big Boyz want to make money trading this market, then taking it down now and then up again after the QE2 announcement in November is a much easier way of making money than to keep pushing this market higher and higher from the currently overbought and overbullish levels, where too many other investors have already boarded the northbound train.
Raiders finally got their seven year itch scratched... Thirteen losses to the Chargers?TOF - Thanks for the post, saved me some work tonight...
"Chinese buy third of Chesapeake South Texas field- APChina's state-owned offshore oil and gas company has bought a one-third interest in 600,000 acres that Chesapeake Energy leases in a South Texas oil and gas field."
Having said that, I don't want now to play the dangerous game of scaling into a large ultrashort position so as to profit from an inevitable market decline. I played this game between February and April and it caused too much volatility in my portfolio (although eventually I profited a little from this game). I'll try a different strategy now -- staying long and "insuring" my gains by gradually buying puts on FCX with ever increasing strike prices as FCX itself keeps moving higher. My latest purchase was a put with a strike of $95, and once FCX rises above $100, I'll buy a put with a strike of $100, and so on.
port2013, why do you think the storage injections have recently been higher than the 5-year average, after being lower than the 5-year average between May and August? Do you think the NG companies are choosing to store their gas now as opposed to selling it at such low prices? If this is the case, then it is creating a vicious loop, since traders are looking at these storage increasing, panicking, and driving the prices even lower...
FCX made a bottom on August 25 at $66.66 and since then was rallying nonstop, in a straight line, as if it was running from a Devil...
I just got done watching some Japanese TV and thought I'd mention that one of their ministers (industry, I think) was explaining the predicament over rare earth materials and that Japan will be shopping for alternative sources to ensure their access in case things continue to be dicey with China.This is precisely how the Japanese work, they never rely on just one source for anything, I'm surprised they haven't already established alternative sources.
BYD - 30% of float is short, LOL!
Chicken - Yeah I saw that (re: BYD). Could it be the ultimate short squeeze along with a buyout as a capper???
I suspect that a short term short position in gold will work well right now just by looking at this chart:http://www.kitco.com/charts/popup/au3650nyb.htmlI've bet against gold twice in my life: both times in the past year. I bet extremely heavily (for me at least :)) against it right before the peak in early December 2009. It turned out to be a really good trade. I was just looking at the chart and it sure looked to me like at least a short term blow off top. The other time I did it was in early August of this year, which was a bad call. So I'm 1 for 2 on this. I think now is looking like another (at least short term) blow off top. I wouldn't be surprised to see another 12 to 15% drop in the short term in the price of gold.
It very well could be one hell of a move, sure looks like it... I hope it happens.
Gold - I don't expect I'll ever trade it again, no desire for trading something I can't understand very well.
Below is a link to the interview with Bill Gross last Friday, where he expressed the same concern that I had for a while: rising commodity prices because of QE2 expectations are not good for the economy, and he confirmed that the Fed does not like this side effect. What can we conclude from this? The Fed will soon intervene in the currency market by propping up $USD temporarily so as to kill off the speculative spirits in commodities for some time. http://finance.yahoo.com/video/marketnews-19148628/22349616#video=22351759So I think my strategy of scaling into puts on FCX with ever increasing strike prices will work out very well in the near future...
I don't know David, I listened to that Bill Gross interview and if you go to the 6:30ish mark you'll hear him say that the Fed is willing to accept some sort of inflation if it means that the nominal GDP growth is around 5%. He said without that then he believes the economy will ultimately collapse under the excessive debt load in the private and public sectors.
No one understands gold either. Not Gartman, and sure as hell not you-know-who (hey Bill!)I am wondering if I didn't screwdoodle myself buying GMO in the previous session...It is beginning to feel like it was a "sell the news" opportunity.....maybe....Don't know yet but I didn't like the way it traded the rest of the day (below my price) and has me wonderin'.
Hey Friend of Bill there.....I'm not threatening to actually touch your skeevy self in order to kick your ass...I wouldn't want to get cooties which we all know you have plenty of:)I still marvel at the vitriol targeted at myself.....we live in an age where, as someone said recently regarding Facebook and all that nonsense, we live in an age where you can be a complete nobody (Bill, for example) and yet, because of ones blogging activites, still be famous, in a sense.Anyway I have to time for friends of Bill so go collect butterfies on their way down to Mexico or whtever else floats your dinghy but leave me the "F" alone okitay:)?
Re: TZA/VXX @ 23.53/15.43/ Closed premarket @ 23.78/15.43 newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4718 comments) on Mon, 10/11/2010 - 09:03 #71219 I had hoped for a gap-down pre-market/open, and it appears I was wrong. On to the next trade...
Link to 60 Minutes segment on HFT...http://www.cbsnews.com/video/watch/?id=6945451n&tag=topnews
Landry-Random Thoughts:The market didn't set the world on fire but it did manage to close at new multi-month highs.The sector action is still looking good. Most tech, chemicals, transports, retail, metals & mining, Internet, and many others remain in nice uptrends.Based on the above, continue to look to nibble but only on entries. Ideally, I'd like to see some serious follow through in the overall market but I'm not complaining. Futures are flat to firm pre-market. Best of luck with your trading today!
"we live in an age where you can be a complete nobody"Finally you are speaking about your area of expertise - who would know better than you.Anyway, continue spewing your insults. I'll be happy to carry out karma when the time comes.
Re the shark/shark-kicker debate, here's my take:We get our asses kicked by life itself enough as it is (at least I do)- why waste time looking for more grief?
I see your still buying up shares of CADC CP.....Any news?Added to V @ 73.90. This is now a full position for me.
Wow....looks like it's time to add to the GMO maybe eh?
PCX - an absolute rocket...
By the way for what it's worth...I WILL continue to exercise my right to call an asshole an asshole, and will feel only encouraged by hecklers to do even more of it.I'm kind of a contrarian....I do what people DON'T want....you should know me enuff to know that.So if I feel like calling Bill an asshole, I will do so, and I will feel unrestrained in my ability to do so, and will continue to do so with vigor.How's that work for you, asshole?
Oh, that works for me alright, piece of crap. Like I said - you do that, and I will exercise my right to call you piece of shit, little jealous nobody chocking with vigor (sic) on his envy for everyone who achieved something. Exercise away, I'll wait for you to slip, like i said, all the while having fun kicking your pasty fat ass every time you launch another of your idiotic tirades.
VXX down big. Under 20.
SD not happy. Might have something to do with the CHK news???
Look at WATG rocket higher. Wish I wasn't so heavily into BYD waiting (hoping?) for news on this sale of the remaining stake of the Borgata so that I can participate in stocks like this one. oh well. I have some friends in it and that's good enough for me.
End of the run for SGEN? Looked to short, but no shares available.
TOF- Looks like we should have held RAS....Oh well, on to the next one.
Hey, be cool to sharkie, he left the bc site so why does he need to be heckled over here?? He isn't bothering anyone here, in fact, we like him so f off
Mark - Yeah RAS should do quite well IF the economy continues to rebound...
Little sharkie started posting under different name to create impression of support... awww, how cute.You fuck off asshole. If he didn't bother anyone, no one would be bothering him. He chooses to attack people behind their back - he better be ready to take the response. Don't dish it if can't take it. Got it, "friend"?
Good luck guys.
Back to leaning long> Opening WFC/INTC @ 25.61/19.67 newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4720 comments) on Mon, 10/11/2010 - 10:59 #71228 Small positions. IMO, bears have yet to capitulate. On the other hand, this could be the losing trade that establishes a change in sentiment.
Interesting article on Minyanville:http://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/nasdaq-100-ndx-rydex-hedge-counter/10/8/2010/id/30463
CADC - The news is already out and will continue to deliver, it's just taking some time to sink into the thick skulls of doubting Thomes'.GMO - Could easily see $5 soon and will continue to climb as progress reflects price.
Rocket Higher On Earnings? newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4721 comments) on Mon, 10/11/2010 - 11:26 #71231 No one believes in a bull market when it starts. No one. And right now, no one believes one has started. What better time to jump start the next bull?
MSFT - Does your new MS phone have a virus yet? It will.
Long a small amount of Gasco GSX...just several k shares as a several day/week hold.
Boy the volume in WATG is off the hook right now.2nd - If this is the start of the next bull market (well I guess it actually started 19 months ago) then companies like ODP/NLS/RAS/ACMR are probably going to significantly outperform here. They are the ones on the brink of disaster that are heavily levered to a rebounding economy.
Oh and I'll throw BYD in there too.
High oil prices: You didn't really expect BP to pay for the GOM oil spill, now did you???
Re: Back to leaning long> Opening WFC/INTC @ 25.61/19.67Submitted by jack black (832 comments) on Mon, 10/11/2010 - 11:35 #71232 (in reply to #71228)You are often right, but I'm not going to follow you, VIX jumped way below the BB today. The last time we had that was 1/11/10. I'm not saying bull is dead but expecting some easing at this time especially with dollar bounce.reply Contact the author Bookmark this Ignore thread Ignore user Re: Rocket Higher On Earnings?Submitted by davefairtex (2299 comments) on Mon, 10/11/2010 - 11:41 #71233 (in reply to #71231)2nd_ave - "No one believes in a bull market when it starts. No one. And right now, no one believes one has started. "This is a great example of the use of a logical fallacy. Let me turn it around and see if the statement still provides insight.Does a bull market start every time nobody believes that one has started?
Re: Rocket Higher On Earnings? newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4722 comments) on Mon, 10/11/2010 - 11:55 #71235 (in reply to #71233)Dave- I'm not one to put much stock in either logic or logical fallacies. I'm only interested in how the market might manage to frustrate the majority of traders. And if it takes a logical fallacy to do it, I don't discount that possibility.
Re: Rocket Higher On Earnings?Submitted by davefairtex (2300 comments) on Mon, 10/11/2010 - 12:29 #71238 (in reply to #71235)2nd_ave - Logical fallacies are useful in pointing out instances of sloppy thinking. Just because people don't believe a bull has started, it does not follow that one has started - or that one is even likely to have started. One can draw no conclusions from such a statement at all.Logic helps us notice statements which on their face sound definitive, but which may in fact hold only a small percentage chance of having predictive value.One last point - slightly off the topic, but interesting nonetheless. Would it surprise you to know that there ARE people who think a bull has started? Would that influence your thinking? Or your statement? See Market Vane's Bullish Consensus.http://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurveyHere I'll save you the mouse click (as of October 6th):* Bullish: 49% +6.5%* Neutral: 23.2% -2.6%* Bearish: 27.7% -3.9%Amusingly enough, on Aug 26 (the last time we were at 1040) AAII showed a very low bullish rating (20%), and the bullish value has climbed ever since then. See this chart:http://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey/sent_results
Re: Rocket Higher On Earnings? newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4723 comments) on Mon, 10/11/2010 - 12:45 #71242 (in reply to #71238)What's interesting about the AAII survey is that it recently peaked at 50.89% on September 16, and the market has done nothing but move up since?
BORN - Get a load of that one...
BORN- Yeah, I've been watching that one. Crazy stuff happening in a lot of these babies.
LVS has been on a rip for 4 1/2 months.
HERO cut by Raymond James.
Just saw a post on SOH about how the EUR is going to go back down which should end the equities rally. I still don't know why it is that people place so much emphasis on short term correlations. If you look at periods in the past when the euro went down...i'm referring to periods before the past year or two...you'll see this correlation doesn't hold up. I feel bad for the bears but you gotta be flexible in your thinking and look at things in longer term time frames.
TOF - There's never any end to the staying power of doomsayers, they're a lost cause for the most part... Old trick, new dog? If only I had a dime for every time I've read about how the dow is destined for 1000!
LVS - Looks kinda pricey here, too bad we missed out on all the fun.
Chicken - the run in BYD is just starting!
BYD - Yes, I'm sure the fun has only just begun with that one, wait and see what happens when traders start moving out of LVS and into BYD!Bang, ZOOM!
Re: Rocket Higher On Earnings?/ Long FSRBX/FSELX at the close newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4724 comments) on Mon, 10/11/2010 - 14:54 #71255 (in reply to #71244)Dave- I don't understand why you're trying so hard to pin me down on this. You know my style, right? It's pretty much all intuitive. On top of that, my level of trust in any data/sentiment point culled from media sources is quite low. So all I'm saying is that in my opinion (a) there are still too many bears out there, and (b) if I were the Market my take on Maximum Frustration right now would be to rocket the indexes higher this week on earnings releases by a few major players in the technology/banking sectors. If my goal is to take it up to 1200/12000, I have to start somewhere- why not here and now?In fact, I plan to reposition the buy-and-hold half of the portfolio in FSRBX/FSELX at the close.
CHK - A prime example of how to get snookered, or screwdoodled... I bet some traders thought today was gonna add 10% to the share price...
"Look at WATG rocket higher... I have some friends in it and that's good enough for me."I hope you count me as a friend, TOF :), as I have a long-term position in WATG now. Thanks for digging that stock up and presenting it to us!
Returning to the Bill Gross interview, he did say that the Fed wants to create some inflationary expectations now, hoping that it will stimulate consumers to start spending again. At the same time, he said that the Fed *doesn't* want a high inflation in raw commodities, since it will negatively affect the US consumers and will eat into their spending budgets. So Fed is doing the only thing that is left for them now while being clueless as to whether or not it will actually work (i.e., whether they WILL be able to generate some inflation and if so, whether that inflation will be in the right areas). Right now, incidentally, it seems like the Fed's bet is not working out: food and metal prices shot up over the past month, and oil is joining the pack as we speak...
SSO back in the IRA @ 40.87. PP.
Probably dumb but I moved the rest of my money into the following funds at the close:SPYIWMMDYIn equal parts.
TOF- Let's hope not for both our sakes!At the bar/Giants game tonight gents!!
David, There's really not much Bernanke's going to be able to do about commodity prices going forward while the human population is expanding at logarithmic rates. I think we're just going to have to get used to the idea of higher prices...
David, In addition, isn't the value of a currency in a long term sense typically dependent on more than just monetary policy? I tend to believe America must concentrate on getting back to work producing wealth.