On the other hand, S&P closed at 1178 on October 13, and now, more than two weeks later, we are still essentially in the same place, at 1184. So the market is no longer overbought in the short term, and another leg up is definitely possible now if this week's events will be viewed as favorable.
Having said that, I hope we get a brutal 10% sell off over the next three weeks, so as to close my November puts with a large gain and then become fully long and unhedged for the rally to new highs.
i'm afraid too many people are hoping/expecting a sell off...i say we don't get one. these intraday pullbacks are all we're getting.
http://kottke.org/10/10/di-fara-pizza-documentaryits stories like this that make me miss the northeast so much.
TOF/David- I agree with you both here. IE, everyone is expecting a pull back that should be bought hand over fist. It can't be that easy, right?For me though, today's lucky play in XCO put me above what I had hopped my year end balance would be, so I decided to play it safe. Maybe that means I'll never be a great trader, but I have 3 young kids to think about, and earn my living in an industry that is still beaten down.
Having said that, give me an opening I like and I'm back in hard. All of you guys have given us some great ideas and I still believe as 'small' players we can beat the averages as long as we are careful and aggressive when the time is right.
On a lighter note, word is Charlie sheen spent $14k this weekend on powdered Halloween candy.
GMO - That's still some monster volume if you ask me...
REDF - CP here, I hate to break it to you guys but I don't like today's candlestick or volume but those RSI's are in the basement.Have a great evening!
So it looks like everyone got their favorite stock to run recently while having a FULL position in it: TOF with REDF, CP with GMO, Mark with XCO. So I guess it is time for my poor old ECU.TO to double as well. So here is my bet: ECU.TO will be above $1 at some point during the rest of 2010 (and most likely will close 2010 above $1 as well). There are several announcements in the pipeline now, each of which will dispel a lot of uncertainty about the company and will probably have a very positive impact on the stock price:1. An economic feasibility study of a twice larger mill, 2. New drill results that will hint at how big their "massive sulphide" discover is, which has up to 8X silver equivalent grams/tonne than the rest of their deposits based on two holes they made in 2008 before they ran out of money 3. Refinancing of their debt.So I will now be buying ANY pullback in ECU.TO this week, since announcements can start coming out as early as this Friday.
A few weeks ago I picked up two USO November $35 calls for $1.73 and then added two more for $1.06. In case we first get a head fake up and then a 10% correction, I am placing staggered sell limit orders on these calls: at $2, $3, $4, and $5. Let's see how many of them get hit before expiration. :)
Which is it?Everyone is expecting a rally on QEII....Everyone is expecting a pullback on QEII....Anyone see the Barron's cover?If the cover story indicator is for real the top is in and we get the pullback.1. If the prognosticators are right and the Tea Baggers win, then there won't be anymore stimulus and spending will go down (more???)2. QEII may speak more to how F'ed up the economy really is and trigger a sell off instead of a rally.3. Ben may only ease a little bit and disappoint the markets.4. no one knows.FF
Twiggs:According to wikipedia the word Halloween (or Hallowe'en) is a Scottish variant of All Hallows Evening: the night before All Hallows Day. The celebration traces its origins to the Celtic festival of Samhain which celebrates the end of the "lighter half" of the year and beginning of the "darker half". The ancient Celts believed that the border between this world and the Otherworld became thin on Samhain, allowing spirits (both good and harmful) to pass through. I hope that the FOMC commitee at the Federal Reserve remember this at their meeting on Monday/Tuesday. Any wrong step could bedevil the markets. The Fed chairman announced his intention to pursue quantitative easing, fixing market expectations. Failure to deliver would whip up a market storm. Similarly, "shock and awe" measures in excess of market expectations would induce panic and a flight to safety. The Fed is walking a tightrope of its own making. I question the wisdom of holding a public debate on such a sensitive issue. Mid-term elections on Tuesday also add to the mix. Surveys indicate a large swing to the GOP/Tea Party, which is likely to restrict any further fiscal stimulus. Leaving Fed monetary policy as the only game in town. And one with a poor track record at that. We also have the next throw of the dice in the global currency dispute, at the November 11-12 G-20 summit. The normal Monday newsletter will be withheld until Wednesday, when we have more clarity on the elections and the FOMC meeting. Hopefully we will not witness any ghouls leaping out of the closets. Happy Halloween. From ghoulies and ghostiesAnd long-leggedy beastiesAnd things that go bump in the night,Good Lord, deliver us! ~ Scottish saying FF
CADC- Purchased 7 new portable concrete plants. $4.6M.
MA earnings were solid. Sights increased expansion in EMA. +3.66% PM.
RBY filed a NR saying they will be filing a 43-101 in Nov 2010. I suspect that's why its trading at 3.80 this am. They wouldn't be filing it if they didn't have at least decent numbers, I wouldn't think.
Republican victory - I believe this will lead to increased pressure on too big to fail.
JB- Looks like BTIM is now trading under BTX??
Added one final lot of REDF at $3.47. Average is now around $4.05 or so.
CB- What form is a 43-101?
CB- No worries. I see it.
3993.HK - Started off strong last night in Hong Kong but closed almost flat, so it seems the molybdenum rally is taking a breather.Keeping an eye on ATNI/GBCI here.
X is strong....
HAR looks interesting. Nice break out. Gap to fill @ 50.23. Anyone follow it?
RAX - unreal! here is another example where I really thought I understand the space and their specific business model and I was totally WRONG.YEA GIANTS.....bro, remember all those nights sitting out at candlestick freezing our butts off, when they stunk...now they win
CADC - What the heck, I'm going to try scalping if they hit it hard again today...GMO - If it can hold $5.42 it may just move higher.
Stinky on CADC @ 4.36.JB- Yep. Last night I was thinking I must have gone to almost 500 games in my life. Was at the stick during the earthquake, etc...I actually think Kendra kinda understood how special last night was.
yeah I hear you bro, regardless of how horrid the 'stick was, living in sf (or marin) and being a rabid fan was such great fun......i feel asleep in the 8th so Boo and the Bug had to wake me to let me know they did it - getting old SUCKS!
the famous Doug Kass was officially all in short yesterday...JB- BTIM now BTX??
GMO - I hope I was able to scalp the POMO guys on this one. So far, so good, a satisfying form of poetic justice.
Mark - yes, BTIM is now BTX, something about warrents
REDF- Alright, I admit to being a chicken. I opted out @ my opening basis of 3.55. Back to 100% cash and looking for a sell-off...
JB- How many warrants are out there and what is the exercise price/time period?
CP- If you interested in getting back in GMO, S2 is 4.80 today.
Mark - from what I can tell, very little info in the press, the whole deal was completed yesterday
TNA - Back above $50 I see. I really like that ETF b/c it saved my sorry butt a year or so ago...
Thanks Mark, yes I'm interested.
Does LVS ever go down???
2nd - I'm actually seeing buy orders come into REDF today for the first time in a while. 29k buy order (purchased on the ask) just came through.
Mark - re: LVS - I know man I watch it every day. MGM looks like it has been forming a bottom for the past few weeks. These stocks in this industry move fast.
David- OK, I'll take a shot at your mining co. What price/size should I open @?
Man, NOBODY is trading FTWR anymore.
FTWR: How is Sprint going to service a 4G network?FF
Nice to see REDF reversing course...BYD is becoming a mini-beast and is close to a breakout, but then again so is the market. Would be a doozy if we breakout at the close and reverse hard tomorrow.
The parallel with late 2002/early 2003 is still holding for REDF. I don't know why I didn't pay more attention to this. If this holds then a bounce to the 20 DMA wouldn't be out of the question, which is at about $4.4.
BAC @ 11.37. I just like the pricing.
On the bar chart the reversal in REDF sure looks like an island reversal, which from my experience is a very powerful chart pattern. MGM is a recent example of a negative island reversal...
Fitch: US Credit Card Defaults Declined In Oct To Level Not Seen Since Mid-2008
tof- Guess I'm just not a sub-$5 stock player. I've been burned in the past on them, and psychologically ill prepared to hold.
GMO - Come to me baby, so I can jump your bones @ $4.90!
Ode to GMO:Now all my buddies said to mark their word, our honeymoon was soon gonna end.Now they all stand around just a scratchin` their heads cause they know how long it`s been.They wanna know what the secret is, they`re beggin` me for a clue.I told them it`s simple, they gotta have a honey like you.
2nd - i hear you man. i think this period (and most periods coming out of a recession) warrants taking flyers on sub $5 stocks. the first move i made from the long side last spring was to just comb through the entire S&P 500 and pick out the lowest priced stocks and I put a few thousand in each one. they included WYN, CBS, XL, all of which are pretty well known companies. even now there are some fairly well known beaten down companies in the process of turning things around and if the economy continues to improve they will become very good investments. ODP is one i'm watching closely...
Obviously the market is stronger than I'd guessed. Still happy though.
GMO- It might what to test it's recent break out @ 4.31ish.
Today might be the last for some of you to smoke marijuana illegally, better toke up!
Since I don't think any of us are going to trade it, let's guess the close....Mark, here- 1188.23
So funny, now the Reps are promising change!GMO - Okay, I'll finish loading the boat around $4.31-ish!
URRE - Uranium is another metal forecast to be in short supply.
CP- URRE...Yeah, but did everyone figure that out 6 hours ago? :)
SGEN- I must have missed some news.
When I woke up this morning I saw ECU.TO being down and right away placed buy limit orders for 5000 shares of ECUXF at the ask of $0.74 and 5000 more at $0.71. Unfortunately, only 1500 shares were purchased at 0.74 and then the ask moved up to 0.758. So to answer your question, Mark, if I were you, I would place the following buy limit orders for ECUXF as a fraction of a full position that you are willing to allocate to it (say 1/10 of your port): 1/5 at $0.74, 1/5 at $0.71, 1/5 at $0.68, 1/5 at $0.65 and 1/5 at $0.62, realizing fully well that you might get a chance to buy ECUXF under $0.7 only if the Fed says something stupid tomorrow.
TOF, congratulations on REDF today -- you are making much bucks once again! I am with you this time once again, having bought some yesterday at $3.44...
David- What's the OTC ticker for the leveraged natty etf you trade?
Guys, did you see the run up in aluminum and copper prices today? Aluminum is touching its April's peak now (AA is still lagging significantly, so if aluminum stays where it is, AA will most likely keep moving up) and copper is above the April's peak already. Is it a preview of coming attractions?
"David- What's the OTC ticker for the leveraged natty etf you trade?"HNUZF
Remember my comment about shorting AONE? Would have been good for 10% already. Dang.
ESLR had a scary open.
RAS coming back into support.
i wouldn't be shocked if we turn down now...in fact, i'm contemplating clearing the deck on all holdings except REDF.
URRE - Well, perhaps it just goes to show the entire world doesn't revolve around American beliefs and the concern over global warming seems to be a higher priority outweighing the overhead concerning nuclear power?Perhaps Americans need to better educate themselves on the modern aspects of the technology?Or, it could simply be a fluke similar to those we're so used to observing.
Imbalances...BUY- C/JPM....wait for it....GMO!!!!!!SELL- AA/WFC.
I think we see selling the news.The question: What does the FED see that makes QEII necessary? THAT should be everyone's concern.Nice returns on GMO and REDF today. Sold half of each at the peak and used a slightly above break even stop on both. GMO triggered but REDF held until I sold it manually. Hard to ignore a 12.5% return in one day....Made 10% on GMO.Awesome trade for you CP. Same with TOF.I'm not worthy----Garth.FF
Ok, sold my International Index Fund and my SPY index Fund holdings at the close, which accounted for 20% of my portfolio. Kept my REDF, BYD, and STT holdings so I'm currently 80% long with those.
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FF- I agree. I'd much rather see the fed with a soft QE2..left open ended. I think that would be bullish over the shock event for the market. I suspect the dollar would rally on that and then the market would follow. But WTF do I know?? :)
FF - Great work! I'm surprised to hear of the buy imbalance for JPM, b/c I hear there are storm clouds brewing for those too big to fail firms.
GMO - Actually, I just want to make sure I've got my foot in the door when the announcement of water permit approval comes across the wires.
Crap, crap, crap.....I lost track of BORN. I really need to work on this harder.
shoot, redf was up almost 9% today, arun was up a 1.46, the frickin' day job cost me a bundle today
ESLR opened 14% down and closed 3% up today...
David - ESLR's chart (today) looks like an inverse ski slope....it was a whacky day
mark,yes i remember your comment on aone and I sold it the next days. thanks! and I do read and listen but don't always comment. :)hope all is well and what about those giants? my old friend brian sabian just locked in his career again. yeah !