Tuesday, November 2, 2010
11/2/10 REDF Rocket/ Change Of Plans> Big Yellow Taxi
Late last night, I heard the screen door slam,
And a big yellow taxi took away my old man
Now don't it always seem to go
That you don't know what you got till it's gone
They paved paradise and put up a parking lot
Obviously, I don't tell the Market where to go- it tells me where to go. At the very least, where to stick my opinions.
I no longer expect a sell-off. I'm back to thinking the bears get back in the same cab, with the same driver, and ask for the umpteenth time, 'Take me to the cleaners.'
Congratulations to REDF holders- sometimes I wonder if I'm just 'gettin' too old for this shit!'
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
Big Yellow Taxi newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4886 comments) on Tue, 11/02/2010 - 19:04 #73340
ReplyDeletehttp://tinyurl.com/5lmh8n
Late last night, I heard the screen door slam,
And a big yellow taxi took away my old man
Now don't it always seem to go
That you don't know what you've got till it's gone
They paved paradise and put up a parking lot
I rounded the corner of Wall and Broad, and caught a bunch of Bears getting into the same old cab, with the same driver, and ask for the umpteenth time, 'Take me to the cleaners.'
The Worst Hand in Liar's Poker newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4887 comments) on Tue, 11/02/2010 - 19:09 #73342
ReplyDeleteTZA, TZA, VXX, VXX, UNG. And the Joker, HNU.to.
After hours bid/ask on TZA? If you're a bear, 'you don't wanna KNOW.'
ReplyDeleteAlright- 21.36/21.35. No typo- the bid is higher than the ask. A sure sign of concussion.
TZA 21.26/21.27...un----ingreal. Completely believable, however.
ReplyDeleteThis has been a tough market to trade. On the other hand, it's been an 'easy' market to buy and hold. Buy and hold has probably outperformed most hedge funds since March '09.
ReplyDeletePost-close report- Someone explain to me exactly what he's trying to say.
ReplyDeleteI just tried to post a message and it blew up on e-blogger with error message. I cant repost but it was re RBY and thanking Cheapy for bringing it to forefront at CC. I own 1000 shares since Oct 5, at a loss. Still like it as a speculation.
ReplyDeleteRe: Tough market/ Easy market
ReplyDeleteSubmitted by Vadym Graifer (1569 comments) on Tue, 11/02/2010 - 20:21 #73349 (in reply to #73348)
Isn't it ironic that this happened just when buy-and-hold was pronounced dead?
The accuracy of this eternal law never ceases to amaze me.
2nd - sounds like a whole lot of frustration / pessimism to me. There have been way too many stubborn/skeptical people on that blog and other blogs for far too long. People don't understand that the markets can do the complete opposite of what people expect them to do.
ReplyDeleteRe: Tough market/ Easy market newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4889 comments) on Tue, 11/02/2010 - 20:38 #73351 (in reply to #73349)
ReplyDeleteLooking back, it was inevitable that bears find themselves at the cleaners time and time again. Now that many of the bear blogs have conceded new highs are likely, there is at least the possibility of a top forming. Unfortunately, it's likely to be a painful topping process.
Re: Tough market/ Easy market newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4890 comments) on Tue, 11/02/2010 - 20:47 #73353 (in reply to #73350)
ReplyDeletetof- I would also chime in with 'the closet majority.' Surveys such as the AAII Sentiment Survey may well mislead- let's face it, most traders keep their cards hidden, and the best ones bluff their way to the bank. When it comes to discerning real sentiment, I would trust intuition over (easily manipulated) surveys.
Post-close report- It's a nonsensical post about nothing because he is weary of the market.
ReplyDeleteI think the last sentence may hold a clue.
ReplyDeleteAnother 'tell' might be Bill's recent decision to split CTAB into three trading teams, each responsible for trading 1/3 of assets, with compensation commensurate with results.
ReplyDeleteMake that next to last sentence.
ReplyDelete2nd - I actually was very close to opening up TZA after hours. I think a short term top could very well be near given what I sense to be the broad based capitulation by bears and adulation by bulls. Valuations still aren't even close to high enough to seriously consider shorting though. I'm now 80% long, 20% cash, and 100% sure I will not be shorting. However, there have been some underlying problems in Ireland / Portugal that aren't getting the headlines that they probably will get soon so I think it makes sense to step back on the risk just a little bit...not a ton but enough to respect the contrarian power of bullish sentiment.
ReplyDeleteI think bulls might celebrate more in the AM. Maybe the PPT has to kepp things afloat till ther GM shares are sold, but my opinion is this is "froth at the top", all silliness based on money being dropped from heliocopters.
ReplyDelete"Don't confuse the issue with facts"
ReplyDelete-Dave Landry
If facts controlled anything we wouldn't have a stock market and the country would have declared insolvency some time ago.
Joe and Jenny aren't going to invest in the market. 1st...they don't HAVE any savings, they are underwater on their mortgage and knee deep in CC debt.
Patrick is looking through 'Patrick' colored glasses. Or through the bottom of a beer bottle, judging by the content of the story.
FF
Just got back. 2nd, you post is brilliant!!
ReplyDeleteOK, I was baited into reading the post close report. My take? You guys actually read ALL of that!? :)
jeez - i breeze through these posts too quickly. i didn't even notice it was joni mitchell. my mom used to love her and my father has always said she had the best voice he ever heard. speaking of which, nothing beats this voice:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-q4foLKDlcE
CNN- ACORN files for BK....
ReplyDeletehttp://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2010/11/02/acorn-files-for-chapter-7-bankruptcy/
TOF- I've always loved Joni Mithcell. I also really like Amy Da Laura.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A2qZt8l7Xy8
Thanks to Banks newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4891 comments) on Wed, 11/03/2010 - 08:18 #73378
ReplyDeleteIf we rocket past SPX 1200 today, I think that's why. Starter positions in BAC/JPM/WFC at yesterday's close/this morning's premarket.
2nd- I think that's a smart play.
ReplyDeleteThere's a 100K share bid for CRYP. Probably just short covering.
ReplyDeleteAdded some more BYD March 2011 $9 calls at $1.05.
ReplyDelete'Brown In, Pelosi Out'- this morning's headlines in the Chronicle.
ReplyDeleteGot to run. See you guys at FOMC.
ReplyDeleteSomething is going on with BYD today..it's up on some big buying. Maybe its just shorts covering or maybe (as I'm still hoping) its a buyout in the works. There are only 9 days left on the deadline on the Borgata. I know they refused to match the deal given to MGM but that doesn't mean another buyer won't come in. Harrah's wants to expand their reach in the Philly/AC area from what I've read.
ReplyDeleteTGB - Mine permit denied, longs trapped under bus.
ReplyDeleteOCLR - coming off bottom;
ReplyDeleteTGB - mid-Oct spike down to 4.58 was just about right as it turns out...
GRMN - Selling on earnings news. Back to $26?
ReplyDeleteOCLR - Looks like classic case of oversold.
ReplyDeleteSell the schnitzel?
ReplyDeleteFCX - Will the 20SMA hold?
ReplyDeleteOh well, it was fun while it lasted.....
ReplyDeleteTGB - Turns out selling post flash-crash woulda been the move, bet the flash crash wasn't a mistake and someone had advanced knowledge.
ReplyDeleteTGB - Yep, my thoughts too...
ReplyDeletecp - i'm struggling to keep up, what were you thinking on getting back into gmo or did you do that already? for some reason i had $4.74 in my mind
ReplyDeleteport
GMO - I think $4.74 would be a good starter position, I bought back 2/3 @ $4.90 but this one could go back to $3.00~$3.50 pretty easily if agricultural interests impede progress.
ReplyDeleteI just don't want to be caught flat-footed in case GMO management pull another rabbit out of their hat in their effort to expedite.
India is where it (opportunity) is at newSubmitted by teamonfuego (2271 comments) on Wed, 11/03/2010 - 12:35 #73411
ReplyDeletehttp://www.nytimes.com/2010/11/03/opinion/03friedman.html?_r=1&hp
FD:
Long REDF
GMO - I'm basically just selling the on second day of each positive announcement and then rebuying after some of the enthusiasm dies off while waiting for the big announcement, which will likely cause more than a couple of days of enthusiasm (or not, see below).
ReplyDeleteInteresting that TC didn't move much on today's positive news, their permit announcement seems to have been factored in as was TGB's... except TGB's didn't happen and so longs were thrown under the bus.
TOF- BYD...Might it have to do with Icahn backing the MGM BK?
ReplyDeleteDavid- OK, I checked ECU out last night.
ReplyDeleteBidding 10K shares @.64 GTC/AON for a starter position.
Sigh, I guess there's no chance of a promotion coming for Obama...
ReplyDeleteJB- I'm trying to get out of BTX @ 6.17.
ReplyDeleteWant to talk me out of it?
Markets spike up after the Fed announcement?
ReplyDeleteSubmitted by teamonfuego (2272 comments) on Wed, 11/03/2010 - 12:59 #73414
I think they will. I also think the jobs report on Friday will be better than expected.
I'm a little pissed I sold 20% of my longs index funds yesterday.
Mark - I think the bid in BYD has more to do with the positive reaction to earnings in MGM.
ReplyDeleteIs MGM gaming separate from MGM entertainment?
ReplyDeleteDidn't MGM entertainment file BK?
FF
With crude at the tippy top of the range, and XLE/OIH both selling off a little, I suspect we will see some good entries in this space soon. $'s from XLE going into XLF. Let's wait until that flips back the other way. Believe me, it will.
ReplyDeleteAdded another small lot of REDF at $3.64.
ReplyDeleteI was going to point out that LVS was actually red today. So much for that nonsense.
ReplyDeleteThere was some dude on CNBC 2 days ago saying he's been short OPEN for a month and couldn't wait until earnings today. Oh well....
ReplyDeleteOPEN - I guess the "obvious" trade isn't always the one that pays? OPEN was near the bottom of it's range, short float 22%. Today's enthusiasm may have presented a better short opportunity.
ReplyDeleteThese guys only report earnings after they delist? That's what I call chickenshit!
ReplyDelete"Government-controlled mortgage buyer Freddie Mac on Wednesday posted a narrower loss of $4.1 billon in the third quarter"
OPEN- I think the lesson here is don't underestimate what people will pay for potential growth, regardless of it's current P/E.
ReplyDeleteI have about $50K in play right now in some pretty high beta plays. Right now I'm up $2.
ReplyDeleteCLNE??? I didn't hear Obama say anything that might have caused that.
ReplyDeleteDoesn't oil look a little pricey here? Not that it can't move up but in a straight line?
ReplyDeleteTime for UCO to make another trip to the bottom of it's range?
AUY- I bet if I didn't look at this sucker for 50 years, it would still be 10.
ReplyDeleteBetter take that gain, LOL!!! I have none to show today aside from CADC but that'll change soon I'm sure. ;(
ReplyDeleteMark - that's a nice return! $2/$50,000!
ReplyDeletejust kidding bro
CLNE: WSJ story pushing NG for trucking worldwide yesterday.....also an analyst for one of the broker-ages.
ReplyDeleteAlso:
AONE
HEV
ADES
AEP
AYE
LNT
ALTI
ADGE
WTR
ACI
BTUI
BWC
CCC
CVA
CMI
FSYS
WPRT
FF
FF- I missed that article. Thanks. I've been on that bandwagon for 2 years. We'll see. MOG's take is the EPA in this area will have NO effect.
ReplyDeleteXCO- This one will come back into play. My concern is the Co. rejects the bid for the same reason it was made.
ReplyDeleteTOF- No kidding!! I can sure balance out the babies :)
ReplyDeleteCADC - I know I'm day dreaming when I look at this chart and see consolidation before a move higher...
ReplyDeleteCADC- Could be. It's behaved beautifully off the 10.
ReplyDeleteWhat the heck was THAT???
ReplyDeleteDPW - Why didn't Mark's stock bot alert us on this one?
ReplyDeleteLooks like the bond market expected more QE.
ReplyDeleteFED to expand asset purchases by $600B, $70B/month.
ReplyDeleteThat's a pretty big schnitzel and market likes it initially...
UPDATE!!..I've now rocked up to $32.
ReplyDeleteCome on, play schwing the schnitzel!
ReplyDelete"David- OK, I checked ECU out last night.
ReplyDeleteBidding 10K shares @.64 GTC/AON for a starter position."
Mark, I doubt you'll get a chance to buy it that low. The rest of my buy limit order for 5000 shares at $0.74 was filled today and, seeing ECU down a little more, I placed another buy limit order for 5000 shares at the ask of $0.72. Only 700 shares were purchased at $0.72 so far.
One of my USO November $35 calls hit its sell limit today at $2. If one more calls hits its sell limit at $3 (i.e., if USO goes up by one more dollar), I will cover my cost basis on these calls and the remaining two calls will be a "free ride" for me.
ReplyDeleteUPDATE!!!...I'm now down $1.
ReplyDeleteLong UGL at $63.3. First time I've ever gone long Gold.
ReplyDeleteDavid- Maybe not. I just can't believe we won't get some sort of pull back in the PM's. If not, I'll pay up.
ReplyDeleteMark - you might try adding...
ReplyDeleteGuys, did you see that TBT jumped by 5% after the announcement? This suggests that the current policy is being viewed as a long-term inflationary. So I would expect PMs to soar to new highs very soon and today's minor drop is a buying opportunity.
ReplyDeleteAs for the overall market, the Fed said "it would regularly review the pace and size of the program and adjust it as needed depending on the path of the recovery." So who in their right mind would short the market long-term with a such a clear "Bernanke put"?
TOF- When I first saw your post I thought you bought UNG. I almost fell out of my chair.
ReplyDeleteOK, TBT made a clear higher low this morning on a 3-month daily chart and is breaking out to a new high now. I just purchased 200 shares at $34.63.
ReplyDeleteDavid- TBT..I saw that. I think it is more simple than that. Purchases in the 5-6 year range might have been a little shorter than expected.
ReplyDeleteI've been TBT do this before. Let's check back in in a week.
Mark, given such a small order size for your portfolio, if I were you I would buy 5000 shares of ECUXF at the $0.73 ask now and THEN I would relax and place staggered buy limit orders at $0.7, $0.67, $0.64, etc.
ReplyDeleteTBT is up 4% already...
ReplyDeleteSilver/gold made a head fake up, then collapsed to shake out the weak hands and have then rebounded almost up to the level of the initial head fake. Supposedly, it's the third move that has the most credibility, and so, as I posted earlier, I believe PMs will make new highs in a short order.
ReplyDeletehey guys - glad I missed that whipsaw, thx day job!, nice action in TRE and BTX is holding its own...wonder what's going on w/CRYP.
ReplyDeleteTDC rumors are heating up, again, but I bet most of the deal premium is already built into the stock
$'s going into XLF.
ReplyDeleteMark - UNG is a widow's maker. I want nothing to do with that broken ETF.
ReplyDelete$'s going into V.
ReplyDeleteI suspect there will be a gap up on GLD tomorrow. The FOMC statement is about as good as it gets for Goldbugs.
ReplyDeleteTOF- I know. That's why I was shocked :)...
ReplyDeleteTRE- That is a nice bounce.
ReplyDeleteBAC/WFC/JPM...Nice play 2nd.
ReplyDeleteSilver has already surpassed the initial spike it made after the announcement before it got dumped. At the same time, 4200 shares of ECUXF have already been purchased for me at $0.72. So now I can sit back, relax, and watch ECU soar BOTH on its internal news and because of silver/gold making new highs.
ReplyDeleteTBT is up 4.5%...
ReplyDeleteRe: Weak hands taken out?/ BAC/JPM/WFC closed out newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4895 comments) on Wed, 11/03/2010 - 15:20 #73440 (in reply to #73437)
ReplyDeleteBAC Opened at average basis of 11.39/ Closed 11.55
JPM Opened 37.11/ Closed 37.79
WFC Opened @ average basis of 26.06/ Closed 26.45
Good enough for day trades.
TBT- I do like it on the chart though. Let's see if it can finally break out here.
ReplyDeletenice work guys!
ReplyDeleteOpening TZA @ 21.51> Shifting attention to nervous longs newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4896 comments) on Wed, 11/03/2010 - 15:27 #73441
ReplyDeleteMy degree of confidence in this trade is 70% of that in buying the banks this morning- ie, very short time frame...
Don't forget guys, BOJ has vowed to counteract any FED QE moves.
ReplyDeleteI'm not quite sure what that means for PM's but so far the previous moves have been positive for almost everything except for the U$D, right?
How much longer can/will recent correlations remain?
Chicken - thanks for the reminder on the BOJ. i read that earlier in the week.
ReplyDeleteRe: Opening TZA @ 21.51> Shifting attention to nervous longs/OFF newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4897 comments) on Wed, 11/03/2010 - 16:02 #73445 (in reply to #73441)
ReplyDeleteStopped out 21.41...
$USD closed the day at the new low since December 2009...
ReplyDeleteRe: Opening TZA @ 21.51> Shifting attention to nervous longs/OFF newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4898 comments) on Wed, 11/03/2010 - 16:08 #73446 (in reply to #73445)
ReplyDeleteThere's probably some kind of trading law that says if one tries to get too slick, the market senses it and will exact a price.
BOJ - I'm not sure if "counteract" or "complement" would be the best description of how this will work out but I'm sticking with the current trend until after it reverses.
ReplyDeleteWake me up then, please...
natty storage estimates and commentary
ReplyDelete"NEW YORK, Nov 3 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas storage levels on average are expected to rise by 67 billion cubic feet when weekly data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration are
released early Thursday.
In the weekly Reuters survey of 25 industry traders and analysts, injection estimates for the week ended Oct. 29 ranged from 57 bcf to 82 bcf.
Stocks rose an adjusted 29 bcf for the same week last year, while the five-year average gain for that week is 26 bcf. The median build in the survey was 65 bcf."
" A total build Thursday at the Reuters survey estimate would leave stocks at a 37 bcf surplus to last year, the first surplus to year-ago levels in more than four months.
The surplus to the five-year average would grow by 41 bcf to about 353 bcf, a 10 percent cushion to help meet winter heating demand,"
Chicken - Seeing how this is going to be a currency war (based on BOJ's comments), I'm going to put the rest of my cash (20%) all into the International Index fund, 25% of which is a Nikkei index fund. I think the Nikkei is about to do a moonshot higher.
ReplyDeleteJust like I was suspecting earlier today, silver just broke out to a 3-day high...
ReplyDelete