Friday, November 12, 2010

11/12/10 1987

Re: Taking bets on direction/ bull trap/ 1987 newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4946 comments) on Fri, 11/12/2010 - 06:50 #74068 (in reply to #74051)
Damn. Should have put a little money on it.

Still think the best trade right now is no trade. Inclined to go long, but only below SPX 1200. I also have in the back of my mind Bill's free association reference to 1987 a few days ago- if it starts in Asia on Friday, why risk opening positions before next Monday?

74 comments:

  1. Beijing tightened, ordinarily this would strengthen a currency that's not pegged.

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  2. The absence of posts indicates-

    (a) We're at a loss as to how to trade this sell-off?
    (b) We're all busy trading the open?

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  3. or just tuckered out

    weather report for natty
    "Strong Cold gets locked in Western Canada
    Warmer Rockies/Plains
    Forecast Discussion: The warmer trends have continued today, predominantly in the Rockies and a bit less so in the Plains for the 6-10 day period. The 11-15 day period is also slightly warmer across the North. Importantly, forecast changes like we’ve seen over the past couple of days may not be uncommon this season. Models often have difficulty latching on to overarching driving climatological forces, such as La Nina. As such, they produce forecasts ignorant of such factors. Then, as the forecast progresses and these factors begin imparting their influence, the models finally “see” this and trend towards the more climatologically favored pattern. That is the case we’re seeing now. Though a precise La Nina pattern may be even warmer than is now expected, especially across the South, the locking up of the cold air in Western Canada is strongly favored by the influences of La Nina."
    port

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  4. (c)- Everything I want to get back into isn't coming in enough. I came close on BAC. I want to get in some positions before next week. OPEX and historically the week before Thanksgiving is very good.

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  5. 2nd - was looking at some Fib Levels...1246 on up-side or 1170 on down...no-man's land now??

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  6. I'm just waiting to see if a selloff materializes or not. So far I'm lumping this action into the consolidation bin.

    In retrospect, we shouldn't be too surprised at Beijing's rate rise so it may be already priced in?

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  7. Bidding CADC @ 4.72. We'll see,

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  8. CADC - I suppose I should've taken gains there but I'd really rather be long for the Monday earnings report.

    ATNI - Me thinks I was a tad early there... Hope $38 holds.

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  9. Bids lined up on CRYP @ 1.29. They reported yesterday.

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  10. CADC. On second thought, I'll pull that one for now.

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  11. GMO - They're buying the dip so far seems like, wonder how much longer that can last? I'm surprised at the recent interest , almost spectacular considering their mine has yet to become a reality...

    Too good to be true.

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  12. I still think they're trying to suck in dip buyers with this early ramp.

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  13. 'Let prices come to you.' Now's as good a time as any to remind ourselves of that.

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  14. CADC - Have you ever slammed your thumb in a car door and not realized it until after you try walking away? The pain follows immediately afterward. ;(

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  15. This is shameful, but....Bidding CADC @ 4.29.

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  16. Bernanke's QE2 seems to be serving it's published goal of keeping T rates low...

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  17. it is hard getting into the groove of the new scottrade trade streaming quote board. slow motion trading

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  18. CP- T's...I'm in round 2 of my refinance now. The first rate was 4.5%. Now it's 4.25%.

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  19. vb- No changes at Schwab, but it's been really slow the last few days also.

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  20. CADC - What price would be considered sinful? I might add there...

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  21. CP- ANTI...You could put a floor under that sucker by simply bidding 500 shares :)

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  22. slow motion trading - Same here, different broker, more layers to navigate through and almost no conditional orders.

    What's up with this? If it got any worse, I wouldn't be capable of buying or selling on my own behalf at all.

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  23. ATNI - Okay, give me a sinful price target and I'll try being a hero...!

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  24. This little piggy went to market, this little piggy stayed home...

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  25. GLD - I bet it moves back to the lower trend line @ $132.5 or thereabouts.

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  26. 33.85 - Thanks, I'm gettin' jiggy with that!

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  27. SPY - We're gonna retest the SMA20 for sure, no doubt in my mind. The only question is if we hold or fail.

    Thia little piggy had roast beef. ;)

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  28. Sellers hitting the gas pedal newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4947 comments) on Fri, 11/12/2010 - 10:57 #74094
    Recent bulls undoubtedly adding fuel to the fire.

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  29. CADC - That's a pretty good haircut there, hold her down Luke, she's suckin' mud!

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  30. Looks to me like U$D is moving the wrong way. And what happening to our inverse ETF UNG?

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  31. EBAY - Less than 1% loss there so far, holding up damn well I'd say.

    Maybe selloff's based on tightening are just fakeouts?

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  32. Hmm, if Ben could provoke some profit taking into end of year Timmy might not have to sell so much paper?

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  33. NG - David had the correct trading method on UNG and HNU.to in taking some off with the wave up. I was patiently looking at the longer swing trade, but maybe it would be wise to make partial trades on the smaller wave movements. So I will adjust or get out.

    Port# also posted on the weather trends and this was something I pondered this morning over coffee. When I put on the recent trade the short-term weather forecast for the upcoming week was for colder than average temperatures and at the beginning of this week warmer than normal for the north-eastern part of North America. In hindsight I should have been trading this information rather than storage numbers.

    Also keeping an eye on higher lows (UNG/HNU) with these trading instruments. It better hold! I need this to be the start of a trend up. I only have so much patience.

    So we learn to be just a bit better by the sharing of information as it makes us think about our methods of trading the market.

    Have a great weekend everyone. Sitting on my hands although I am giving back recent gains.

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  34. Not sensing quite the same level of giddiness today as I sensed last week.

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  35. Brokers:

    I just want a simple interface to do my swing trades.

    Broker #1 excels at this and real-time flashing streaming quotes takes little bandwidth with their third-party application. The trading platform is basic and take little bandwidth. The IT guys have kept this super simple by doing nothing to change it. Now I could use the higher level platform, but for what, I am not a day trader.

    Broker #2 has made the the basic trading interface useless for me. In fact, a Google search of this firm provides traders complaining about that fact that they let users beta test the production mode. The IT guys here seem to want to put a lot of bells and whistles into this basic (java?) platform and change it frequently. Since Nov 2 I have not been able to log into the platform if I have limited bandwidth. It just spins its wheels. Even with bandwidth it takes about a minute to log in and do anything. I have a four letter word for this.

    Broker #1 provides about the same trade options as Broker #2 but do it better. Broker #2's customer service is rated 0 out of 10 and they have earned(?) it.

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  36. SMH - Doesn't want to stay red, does it?
    CSCO - Seems like a pretty good price here if we don't fall into crisis aversion mode.

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  37. Brokerage ratings - Yeah, I guess that step in the DD process shouldn't be overlooked:

    http://www.brokerage-review.com/

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  38. Sell baby, sell! Still can't see the bottom from my porch.

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  39. CP: Thanks for the link. Interesting diversion for today.

    When things work, I am happy with both brokers.

    Brokers are not as competitive here north of the border. Two of the big banks adjusted their fees in October, so we will see if a bit more competition creeps in for the new year.

    Sea of red today, could be the making of a trend down. Stocks I sold two weeks ago are down so not selling them would have been a drag on year to date gains. Almost want to buy them back. G20 meeting did not help market sentiment.

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  40. update from es, 6e land - based on yesterday pm and this am, i can no longer afford for taylor to attend community college

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  41. ASTM & SHZ held up. AONE almost kept it going...

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  42. Walmart PAYS for training :). Just moved 1/2 off my cash into the brokerage account.

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  43. I don't get the move in AONE today. Are you in the other 2?

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  44. Wonder is somethings up with BYD. Lots of big block orders flashing.

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  45. Mark - I'm in all three. REE as well. Looking to make an upturn.

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  46. sh*t I had to trade my a** off to only be down $2k, not including my long portfolio losses which must be huge. euro/usd contract is HUGE so .0001 moves are big $$$

    Given my "special" talents I'm think Bev Mo is in my future

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  47. Sell-off in US->Sell-Off in Asia Monday->Why buy today? newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4949 comments) on Fri, 11/12/2010 - 14:08 #74106
    JMO

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  48. CADC Run baby run, gimme sweet shugga into this close!

    GMO - keep fallin' please, give those late comers a coaster ride to remember!

    ATNI - Come on now baby, gimme gravel. Let's git jiggy sinful!

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  49. I woke up this morning (1hr ago), saw a welcome pullback, and did a few things. First, I sold one MON January $60 put for $3.30. MON is one of the very few good stocks on my radar that is both in an uptrend (made a higher low and a higher high) and is also very near its bottom (I seriously doubt MON will drop below $55 even if this pullback lasts another 2 weeks).

    Then, I saw that my sell limit order for 5 CSCO January $20 puts was hit at $1, giving me an entry into CSCO at $19 (or a large profit on the shares I am currently holding if this is THE bottom for CSCO).

    I also saw that my sell short stop on SLV was triggered at $25.95 for 300 shares. Will cover at $24 and will start thinking about going long SLV under $24.

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  50. Since JJS (currently at $70) is down significantly from where I shorted it (at $75.30), I decided to place a buy to cover stop limit order at $75.30/$75.40 so as not to let a profit turn into a loss.

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  51. Kyle- What was your trigger on AONE?

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  52. AONE - Mark, liked the up-trend since end of Aug. Took a probe position when SRSI40 went red (<0.20). Am trying to practice JL's approach of taking small probe positions and only adding @ higher prices...

    http://www.screencast.com/t/hXvClTJ8f

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  53. Finally, I decided to place a buy limit order for 500 shares of UNG at $5.40, so as to replace the shares I sold at $5.89 and thus finish reloading the full position I had before the recent rally.

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  54. Kinda thought that might be it. Thanks Kyle. GL.

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  55. SPY is up against the underside of S2. If it get's through, 120.90 is not out of the question.

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  56. PWER & MU - small positions

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  57. As I thought a little more about UNG, I figured I should just buy 400 shares now at $5.50 (which I just did), replacing the shares sold at $5.89. Then, I also placed a buy limit order for 500 more shares at $5.30. I believe we have seen the bottom in UNG, and buying it right now near THE bottom is a very safe trade.

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  58. Also, I just placed a sell limit order at $5.80 for the 400 shares I just purchased at $5.50 and then at $6 for the 400 shares I purchased yesterday at $5.67.

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  59. That was not a solicitation, investments may lose value...

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  60. If the market keeps selling off, then TBT will have a hard time sustaining its recent rally. So I decided to place a sell stop limit order at $36.60/$36.20 for the 200 shares of TBT I purchased right after the FOMC announcement at $34.60. There are some good bargains appearing now (CSCO, UNG, MON), and so I would rather redeploy my cash in those stocks.

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  61. SOMX - interesting...I'm looking at more of the bio-techs lately.

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  62. Hmm, U$D down, T's down, PM's down... What besides short ETF's and perhaps a few equities here and there experienced upside today?

    AONE - That must've been some impressive news, too bad about the timing?

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  63. I'd rather be at a bachelor party right about now...

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