I can't shake the '87 blues, now that it's been moved front and center from the back burner. History 'rhymes,' so it's unlikely to play out the same way, but a rhyme is a rhyme. Shanghai sold off, and so did we. I'd rather not spend the weekend worrying about Monday morning.
It could all be a non-event, but why bet the portfolio without a compelling need to be long right now? We just hit new highs for the year- why push it.
tof- All the best for your wild weekend.
ReplyDeletetof
ReplyDeletebon voyage.
i once asked a real old dude, what he thought was the source of his old age, his answer was," just keep breathing young fellow".
i've been successfully married 53 years; i'd put it into a long term build up of committed friendship and appreciation of your partner assistive effort on your behalf.
enjoy your trip,
e5
This will be a temporary selloff, a consolidation period if you will, so prepare for reentry once/if the downtrend (hopefully not too deep) fails to materialize.
ReplyDeleteATNI - Money flow popped up a bit...
ReplyDeleteCSCO sell-off in perspective newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4951 comments) on Fri, 11/12/2010 - 21:55 #74122
ReplyDeleteThe brutal sell-off over the past two days takes the stock price all the way back to...August 31. I think it needs to spend some time in the 'teens before it comes back to life.
JNPR - Moved up nicely, takeover rumors?
ReplyDeleteWell, at least my port outperformed gold today, but only slightly...
ReplyDeleteZSL - Very nice gain there, silver was thoroughly thrashed.
ReplyDeleteI don't recall seeing those gold buying commercials on television recently, have I just been missing them?
ReplyDeleteWhy worry one second about CSCO? Like MSFT and INTL it has been basically dead money since 2001. Has csco at anytime in the last decade outperformed the QQQQs?
ReplyDeleteOverall market is still in a up trend. S+P bounced off the 20 day. Sideways consolidation would be healthy for markets. A buy the dip and run has been the norm of this rally. Probably should of held my nose and bought market leaders, but didn't. A close below 20 day will cause me to look to short weak stocks. Sitting on my hands wondering what shark would do.
Bob
I answered my own question. I did look at cisco and it did significantly out perform QQQQ from AUG 2006 to aug 2007 (80% to 20 %). It even significantly outperformed apple from aug 06 to july 07. Who knows it could have an IBM like resurgence. Every large switch and router at work is Cisco. I have never seen another brand. Juniper? That is why when people say its poor performance is a cisco only problem and not a poor economy problem. I wonder if they realize the enormous monopoly that Cisco has in this space. Maybe the wireless revolution is changing the playing field in networking and the cisco problem is that they are being rendered obsolete.
ReplyDeleteBob
Holy crap, I thought IREland was the catalyst. Have you seen CALI municipal bonds! Has this been headlines? I guess I am doing a good job avoiding news.No worries Uncle Ben to the rescue. Cali and Ireland and Spain and Illinois and Arizona and Nevada. ECT> ECT.
ReplyDeleteI gather Obama's message wasn't well received during his visit to Asia...
ReplyDeleteDid you know that 50% of S&P ownership is foreign based? I wasn't aware of this high ratio, now yesterday's move and perhaps more of the action is a little more comprehensible to me.
Interesting chart....
ReplyDeletehttp://www.screencast.com/t/Y8caB6pMNJiA
CP- Scope out the fundies on this baby!!
Oh, LOL! Cramer was buying gold at this week's peak for the "big breakout"?
ReplyDeleteMELI - EABY competitor? Good volume, nice large market cap, good inside ownership, high short float, good cash levels, no debt, PEG is greater than 1 though.
ReplyDeletePE is still pretty high, unless justified by market expansion but I don't have any other south american equities for comparison (it this PE typical for South American companies?).
MELI could be a good long term hold (on the order of a decade?) for giant returns if EBAY doesn't knock them off or maybe EBAY buys them out?
Does EBAY even have a presence in that market?
Enlighten me if I've overlooked something but not knowing the situational detail I tend to think MELI may be slightly overpriced here?
Not that it can't grow into a giant in the longer run, it very well might considering rate of growth in South America and this might be a unique opportunity to take advantage.
Wonder how much longer it'll take before the media starts telling us the Chinese economy is the world's largest?
ReplyDeleteFiat currency - I think that anyone holding a majority of their wealth in fiat currency, by default, must accept the risk involved should the value of that currency take a major dump for some reason.
ReplyDeleteSame thing is true of course for nearly any kind of asset or financial vehicle, why should a currency really be any different?
CADC - If this one doesn't start moving quickly towards $5 again Monday morning, I'll probably just take it off to preserve my gains.
ReplyDeleteThat would be trading the right side of the reversal, IMO.
Hopefully I can buy it back lower in December b/c I think there's a fantastic growth story behind this one.
MELI - I just noticed, this one hasn't retested the 200SMA in nearly a year, that's pretty impressive!
ReplyDeleteCongrats to Kendra's team. They finished league play today undefeated. 13-0-1. 2 more games next weekend and you guys will be spared any more of this crap until the spring!
ReplyDeletehttp://picasaweb.google.com/109683553999877022878/10LGSRU?authkey=Gv1sRgCIOAk4alspLNeA#
Mark, Nice pics. I kinda feel sorry for the other girls getting so dominated by Kendra:).
ReplyDelete"Hu’s Pledge
ReplyDeleteAt the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum in Yokohama, Japan, China’s President Hu Jintao today pledged in a speech to business executives a “steady” reform of its exchange rate policy, a day after U.S. President Barack Obama criticized it for keeping the yuan “undervalued.” China also “aims to balance the trade gap by boosting domestic demand,” including by increasing regional development, he said.
Hu’s remarks come as a spat between China and the U.S. over which country is doing more damage to global trade intensifies. U.S. officials have complained about the weak yuan giving China an unfair trade advantage, while Chinese policy makers say the Federal Reserve’s monetary easing poses risks for financial stability.
“In the next five years, we would be more open,” Commerce Minister Chen said in Macau. “We will stabilize existing exports, actively boost imports, so our trade balance account would be kept at a basically balanced, reasonable level.” "
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-11-13/china-assails-monetary-easing-citing-imported-inflation-bubble-risks.html
NANO - Coming back to me, guess I'll have to start doing DD on their outlook over the next few quarters.
ReplyDeleteI asked MOG to take a look the XCO deal. I thought it might be worth a second look now that it has come off 2 bucks. Short version, he says pass on it for now.
ReplyDelete"BHP Billiton on Sunday withdrew its takeover bid for Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan, saying it cannot convince Canada's federal government to approve of the deal."
ReplyDeleteBack to mid/low 100's?
CASH - Keep a close watch on this one, their payday loan division was shut down by authorities, which cut the share price in half.
ReplyDeleteIf the decision is rescinded, this one could be an easy double?
I interviewed at a payday loan co this yr. They charge astronomical amounts to whoever takes money from them if calculated as a percent (ie wild fees). With the economy bad, the politicians are going to go after them for raping the poor.
ReplyDelete"With the economy bad, the politicians are going to go after them for raping the poor. "
ReplyDeleteAbsolutely, that's precisely what's happened to CASH.
Will there be an appeal and will the final decision be in favor of payday lending?
It's doubtful that payday lending will emerge unscathed, but it's possible...
No positions and no interest right now.
ReplyDeleteCP- What did you think of CADC's earnings?
ReplyDeleteCADC - Ouch, big haircut this morning...
ReplyDelete