http://tinyurl.com/yau3bmh
You guys need to read the above book. I picked it up at the local library this week, and it was one of those cover-to-cover in less than 2 days experiences.
After you've all read it, let me know what you think. There's an unmistakable connection between trading and everything we get into on this blog- blackjack/roulette, the search for patterns and mispriced securities, short/long arbitrage, a willingess to bet big and/or double down, and the fascination with picking up the pieces of trades (put on by others) gone bad.
We missed our calling, man. But it's not too late. We need to come up with a system, tweak it 'til it becomes an ATM, then start our own hedge fund.
Re: The Wall Of Worry/ Skeptical of AAII Surveys/ aikido newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4922 comments) on Sun, 11/07/2010 - 10:21 #73687 (in reply to #73669)
ReplyDeletedave- Regardless of the accuracy/utility of the AAII, I agree that the probability of a sell-off is much higher now than it was in September. So it makes sense to be cautious- I'm leaning long, but no permabull. On the other hand, neither am I 'worried' about being long- I'd be much more anxious holding shorts. As I mentioned recently, my confidence level in opening just an intraday short position was 70% of that in having been long earlier in the day. I suppose (as you once suggested) it's possible to distill my entire take down to 'trading with the trend,' and I would have no problem with that.
les/dave- The analogy to aikido is spot on. What we're all trying to accomplish on this blog (which is pretty much a real-time trading forum), is nothing less than what's accomplished on any live trading floor. We're all trying to make money, we're all pushing ideas, and we're all giving/receiving feedback on those ideas. Any and all lessons are appreciated. Any and all 'sparring' is good- it challenges our preconceptions and sharpens our instincts. There are endless ways to earn a black belt. It's entirely possible for one trader to hit +20% for year trading multiple times each day on the long/short side, while another takes/accumulates a position ahead of a sharp move that eventually earns him +20 in a few days. Plenty of room for 'disagreement' on a daily/weekly basis along the way. But hey, the last thing we need is a room full of people who 'agree' with us.
I understand, btw, that technology now exists to connect all of us together in a 'virtual' site. The use of avatars and specialized A/V equipment can make it seem as if we're all in the same trading/conference room. Now that would be a hoot.
Gold - Way too much partying going on there, everyone's making money especially when they're not posting their trades.
ReplyDeleteBesides, my picks have outperformed gold by a wide margin anyway.
Why is it those who distrust US government statistics always seem to overlook upward data revisions while never missing downward revisions?
ReplyDeleteCould they be fear mongers?
Well, we might have some more upside room coming... The bears are hyperventilating again!
ReplyDeleteJust got back. Much to my surprise, Kendra's team was 3-0 in the round robin part of the tourny, and won the last game 4-1 in a single elimination game. Off to the the quarter finals in 2 weeks in Manteca.
ReplyDeleteKendra had her best game ever in the elimination game and scored the winning goal in a tight 2-1 win in game 2. Proud papa right now...
So, I'm totally clueless going into tomorrow. Looks like nothing really interesting happened over the weekend, right?
Don't bother getting back to me. One quick glance at SOH is enough. "Obama will be the last POTUS, and Ben will be the last head of the FED." Etc.
ReplyDeleteSo the choice seems to be that will happen or we go higher. I'll stick with the latter.
Congrats to Kendra.
ReplyDeleteBD
Three Momentum plays I am looking at if market positive.
ReplyDeleteAXL
EXM
BZ
Bz I will look to add to my position on a 8.00 break or a pull back to the 20 day MA. For the first time in over a year I read a report on a companies fundamentals. It earned .41 last quarter per share. This is an $8.00 stock.
RB- Too funny. I was looking at BZ a few days ago.
ReplyDeleteThanks, re-Kendra. It's funny man. I honestly really don't care if they win or lose at this age. 3 of her teammates slept in our room last night and they played "pick-up-sticks", etc and had a blast. When we loaded up and left for the last game, the girls actually debated whether they wanted to win and travel to Manteca. No shit. They decided, OK, lets win this one and see if it's fun! Man, I wish I was 9 again :)
SOH has been a total waste of time to look at every time I have taken the time to try to read thru it.
ReplyDeleteEveryone is a commodian, there...
Looks like Europe playing "devalue us because Ireland is screwed" tonight. Its an every other week thing where some nation or group thereof pulls some stunt or another to devalue itself.
ReplyDeleteWhy can't we all just agree that *ALL* this frigging paper is worthless and can/will NEVER be repaid?
Isn't that really where it all ends up?
looks like a great book, just placed my order thru amazon, thx 2nd
ReplyDeletemy son in law, phy physics, has been messing around with the quant idea. we has a model, just hasn't had the time to really tweak it. now that he is out of school and working for Intel he may get back at it. I told him I would fund the venture and we would split the profits.
re SOH - I love some of those guys there, I don't have time to check it out during the trading day but after hours I think it is funny as hell, superior comic relief, at least for me!
Gosh, palladium and silver are looking good along with molybdenum but gold seems to be having a difficult go at it... must be taking a breather?
ReplyDelete