http://tinyurl.com/54qccl
While it's true that Twiggs is often a lagging indicator, his recent targets for the global indexes have all been hit. Maybe it's due to the fact that recent rallies have been backed by strong moves in both the 'Twiggs Momentum Oscillator' and 'Twiggs Money Flow' metrics.
In any case, this time he's in sync with my sixth sense- I think if we are to get that 'big move' that really takes us to new highs, now's the time. If not now, when? What's left in Ben's bag of tricks? Everyone wants the markets higher- and if that includes the Central Banks of the G20, we are likely to see just that.
QE2 can be viewed as bad news. Or it can be taken as another shot fired off the bow of the good ship 'Don't Fight The Fed.'
It's easy to make fun of Bernanke (reminds me of how the media loved to make fun of Carter in the seventies). But if QE ultimately restores millions to full employment, then they'll be penning books about Bernanke in ten years that compare him quite favorably to Greenspan (as Carter is now recognized for his true stature). Greenspan? You mean the 'Most Powerful Man In the World?' The guy who faced Congress after the sub-prime crisis and said there may have been 'a flaw' in his financial ideology- and then walked off?
Mark - good to hear Kendra did so well man. That's exciting.
ReplyDeleteSo just wanted to point out that MGM is close to the secondary price of $12.50 thanks to Cramer's recommendation after hours. I think it's a STRONG BUY if it breaks through $12.50. Maybe it's a good idea to buy it at around $12.70 just in case its a fake out...if you believe like I do that the economy is back on its feet then Vegas will thrive and MGM, with it's huge debt load and leverage, will skyrocket in the next year or 18 months.
Re: Bad News Bears/ Bad News, Bears
ReplyDeleteSubmitted by Mark H (184 comments) on Mon, 11/08/2010 - 08:57 #73716 (in reply to #73713)
Once earnings season is over focus will switch back onto the macro. If money is really flowing into equities why aren't bonds a lot cheaper?
Re: Bad News Bears/ Bad News, Bears newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4924 comments) on Mon, 11/08/2010 - 09:07 #73719 (in reply to #73716)
Mark- Sometimes we have to wait for the real story.
Remember the bizarre sell-off in 'value' stocks + simultaneous rallying of 'momentum' stocks during the subprime crisis? No one could make sense of it. Until it was revealed that large hedge funds were being forced to unwind their 'long value/short momentum' positions to raise cash for margin calls.
tof- Your point about buying on breakouts is well taken. The market itself is breaking out right now. We could wait for a pullback that never comes. Or we can buy in and not sweat any pullbacks.
ReplyDeleteThe end of daytrading. Scaling into AA/CSCO/GE + Adding to BAC. newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4925 comments) on Mon, 11/08/2010 - 09:14 #73721
ReplyDeleteDay trading is fading as an effective strategy, IMO. You could term the above stocks 'momentum' or 'breakout' plays if you wish. But I think they're value plays.
Sold my BAC pre market...going to leave that money aside in case MGM breaks out.
ReplyDeleteTOF,
ReplyDeleteOn MGM, The juggernaught that is LVS is looking weak for the first time in a year technically. It could actually pullback $10.00 and still be in a confirmed up trend. If LVS breaks down it could effect all casino stocks.
A funny side note. I bought lvs at 16.00 and rode it all the way to $20. When I closed the trade I thought I was Jesse Fn Livermore. What A retard. I have a Post It on my computer that says. Remember LVS. as a note to stay in stocks that are trending up.
Bob
Actually based on valuation, BYD is still cheaper is we assume that BYD and MGM return to 75% of 2005 earnings (I'm not going to assume the peak earnings because those were bubble earnings) and assign a 20 p/e on those earnings...reason being MGM diluted shares by 50% since 2005.
ReplyDeleteRoBear - You know what, you're right about LVS...that looks like a blowoff top right there. At least in the short term.
ReplyDeleteOn second thought LVS has been trading on its own planet and probably has no relation to the casino industry itself. MGM came up on my finviz screener as having over 30% short float(dated info). You catch a breakout and the rats jump ship the thing could have nice legs.
ReplyDeleteBob
Alright...long MGM November $11 calls at $1.65 average....playing the breakout.
ReplyDeleteLooks like MGM is backtesting the breakout, which would actually be good for the stock if it finds support.
ReplyDeleteRE: REDF...could be making a double bottom at around $3.40...with Obama in India and the Sensex at highs I have to imagine investors will focus on India even moreso than China.
Actually double bottom for REDF is $3.35 per Think or Swim...in hindsight it would have been smart to wait for the bottom and to buy on the upswing. Kind of like buying the breakout on a stock. Gotta remember that for future reference.
ReplyDeleteAdding to REDF @ 3.32.
ReplyDeleteInteresting news on HEK today.
ReplyDeleteBob: "I have a Post It on my computer that says. Remember LVS. as a note to stay in stocks that are trending up."
ReplyDeleteI think a lot of people are saying that about the market right now, no?
Here's another breakout stock: SOHU.
ReplyDeleteDip buyers showing up?
ReplyDeleteSeems like pretty typical action so far.
ReplyDeleteAt the close!!
Hmm, seems like we're still inversely correlated with U$D, or that's todays illusion exclusive of simple profit taking.
ReplyDeleteAPC/RIG??
ReplyDeleteSold my MGM calls at $1.75. I didn't realize it but I made a mistake on the breakout price...the secondary was at $12.65, not $12.50. So technically, today's trading was a fakeout breakout so far.
ReplyDeleteBought back my MGM calls at $1.7. Man, there is no quit in my BYD. I can't believe I didn't just keep all of my original position. Still have a decent options position in it, though, so I shouldn't complain.
ReplyDeleteLPX looks like a good breakout trade. Stop is below $8.40.
ReplyDeleteATNI - Initial position @ $38.80
ReplyDelete"World Bank chief surprises with gold standard idea"
ReplyDeleteCADC - I think might have a rough go trying to break through $5.15 but we'll see...
I suggest using molybdenum as a currency standard considering there's not enough gold. ;)
ReplyDeleteTOF: "I can't believe I didn't just keep all of my original position." Remember LVS. :)
ReplyDeleteSince your playing in my ball park today. Take a look at RLD. Could be A 2x , 3x gainer. Starting to break away from last weeks huge gap up.
Bob
RB - I'll have to take a look at RLD.
ReplyDeleteFreaking BYD just continues to bust higher. My out of the money calls are almost in the money, my in the money calls are up big...I swear with this kind of move either it was way to undervalued or some kind of buyout deal is in the works.
RE: REDF:
http://www.medianama.com/2010/11/223-rediff-vubites/
Not exactly the greatest take on non-public news as of yet. An arms-length deal with its founder...Gotta love the shadiness of overseas companies.
Speaking of REDF...today's action sure as shit looks like a confirmed double bottom. I wonder if I had waited for this and saw this article above whether or not I would be buying here...
ReplyDeleteRLD is interesting but I would think they would be susceptible to bad movie releases no?
ReplyDeleteI'm listening to trades audio of the s@p pit, pretty interesting.
ReplyDeletebased on what I hear, I can't see how the spy doesn't turn down pretty fast
went short /es at 1220, let's see how all my new work pans out
ReplyDeletecovered all at 1218.50, nice!
ReplyDeletebased on my 5mins of experience, futes trading is really stressful, not sure it's for me but I'm going to stay with it for awhile
Seems like you're not the only one listening in, I'm getting an afternoon ouchie on GMO here!
ReplyDeleteHL - Quite a run there...
ATNI - Hmm, maybe I should perform a little DD on this one...
ReplyDeleteREALD is the 3d technology not the movies. There bussiness model is basiacly changing a regular theater with their equipment into a 3d theater at a loss to get market share and in the future once they are industry leader make profit from licennsing.Typical tech business plan. Earnings are not going to be a catalyst for a couple of years. The growth in theaters that order their equipment will drive price.
ReplyDeleteBob
GMO - Dumped enough to bring my basis to $0.0, so it can run on fumes from here.
ReplyDeleteGMO - And of course it moves up immediately following that decision... If your balloon has too much weight, just throw something overboard. ;)
ReplyDeleteREALD - Kinda like IMAX in some ways?
ReplyDeleteCongratulations David on holding onto ECU.to.
ReplyDeleteUp 24% so far today at 1:55pm.
Makes one wonder who is buying and where were they two weeks ago. It's up over 50% in less than 10 trading day.
Way to go .... an excellent trade.
Last week, when ECU.TO pulled back below $0.75, I made a prediction that it will rise above $1 before the end of 2010. I didn't expect it to happen so soon, however! ECU.TO is trading at $1.09 today, up 24%. And it's all without any news yet, which are supposed to prove that the company has a great future, just on the back of the rising silver price. So maybe the stock will still find the firepower to move even higher once the news are released. In order to guarantee that I don't regret missing the recent surge in ECU, I sold today 9000 shares of ECUXF at the bid of $1.05, when I saw that the intraday up move was flattening out.
ReplyDeleteThis 9000 share bunch was the only one that I could sell without disturbing my potential long-term capital gains. In fact, the cost basis for these shares, after a little trading I did in ECU in 2008, was $1.2 (my original purchase was 5000 shares of ECU.TO at $2.2 in 2007). So today's sale was still at a loss. However, the remaining 61K shares I currently own were purchased around $0.6, and so I'll now have to be careful with my future sales so as not to forego the long-term capital gain. The next sale I can make is 12K shares after 2/5/11 and then 7.5K more after 4/26/11. So I will have to stomach the volatility in ECU.TO until then.
On a second thought, I *will* be able to buy ECUXF in another brokerage (Etrade), and my subsequent sales of ECUXF will count as the sales of the newly purchased shares. So I can wait for a decent pullback in ECU and then start scaling into ECUXF. Needless to say, today will be yet another record up day for my portfolio. :)
Thanks, CI. :)
ReplyDeleteCI: my trade in ECU was to buy 10K shares on the Fed day and then sell for a 5% gain the next day.
ReplyDeleteToday's gain to my portfolio, however, is not a trade but rather a result of the due diligence I made researching the company. I guess this shows that the time spent researching small "off the radar" stocks can pay off MUCH better than the time spent trading those stocks. TOF's results are another excellent example of this.
Chicken, Imax is Reald main competitor.Different business model though. Nice playing with house money right.
ReplyDeleteDavid- WAY TO GO!!!! Thanks so much for trying to get me in!
ReplyDeleteAn unexpected thing happened today with my NG trade, and I can't decide whether it is good or not. I had a sell limit order for 1000 shares of HNUZF at $3.25, which I bought at $2.75. Currently, HNUZF *would* have been trading at around $3.20 or maybe $3.25, and so I would have most likely sold those 1000 shares now. However, HNUZF is going through a reverse 2:1 split today and all my orders were canceled. I was thinking of selling instead the 1000 shares of HNU.TO I have in my Canadian Etrade account, but that would incur a CAD$20 commission, instead of the $7 Scottrade commission for HNUZF.
ReplyDeleteSo, in order to minimize my trading commission, I decided that it doesn't really matter in which way I reduce my UNG exposure, and so I just sold 800 shares of UNG in my OptionsHouse account at $5.88 and paid a $2.99 commission. :)
The total dollar amount that I took off the table was $4700, which is equivalent to selling 735 shares of HNUZF at $3.2 (a twice smaller dollar exposure in HNUZF has the same amount of daily risk than a twice larger dollar exposure in UNG). I reduced my NG exposure today by a somewhat smaller amount than I originally planned because UNG made a higher low recently and is set on making a higher high today, so I'll most likely have a chance to sell more UNG at a much better price this week.
Yes, best to take risk off the table here, planning a deep south adventure soon.
ReplyDeleteYes, Mark -- I tried... And I made a number of posts about ECU on this blog over the past few months, starting when it was trading at $0.6 (that's when I purchased most of my current position), and it became clear to me that the bottom it made at $0.5 would hold and now it can only move up. It moved up quick. :)
ReplyDeleteGMO - Damn if I didn't get faked out by this morning's action...
ReplyDeleteIn the light of the large surge in my portfolio over the recent month, I think I should switch into a conservative mode and reduce my risk exposure as much as possible. So I just sold at $13.97 the 500 shares of AA that I purchased at $14 but then, through sales of puts and covered calls reduced the cost basis to $11.20. I still have 400 shares of AA left with a cost basis of $14.90. If AA rises above $14.50, I'll sell $15 covered calls against these shares for around $0.5 and will try to have them taken away from me at $15.50, for a small gain.
ReplyDeleteImbalances....
ReplyDeleteBUY-C/JPM/AA/XCO
SELL-BAC/CHK/WFC/GG.
BUY- MGM.
ReplyDeleteRDN/PMI = Ouch/Ouch!
ReplyDeleteRe RDN/PMI, in the current environment, title insurance seems like a joke.
ReplyDeleteAll of my crappy foreign stock positions decided to have a field day today: ECU.TO, AZM.V, PNP.TO, WATG, HNU.TO, etc. My account is up 10% today, yet another record up day. This was probably a blow off top, however. I did sell some ECU and AA today, so at least I'll be able to say that I sold some at the top. :)
ReplyDeleteEven though today's gain calls for buying a new Lexus, I'll try to stay true to my tradition and will get a new bottle of Nadurra today. Nadurra seems to go out fast in my household lately -- I've already finished the bottle I picked up a couple of weeks ago! :) OK, OK, I didn't do it alone -- my friends came over a couple of times, and instead of drinking vodka, I told them that we are now upgraded to Nadurra for the next 10 years. :))
ReplyDeleteHey David - Congrats on the trades man! And if today's gains call for buying a new Lexus, then you're rolling in some serious dough!
ReplyDeleteThat would only be a small and basic Lexus, TOF, say IS250. :)
ReplyDeleteBuying such a Lexus now, however, would not be a responsible thing to do, since I still don't own a house and hence I don't know how much money I'll need for the house we will ultimately like to buy. Once that purchase is out of the way, THEN I'll know how much cash I really have left for entertaining myself, such as buying a new car and doing other useless consumer spending.
For now, however, I'll have to restrict myself to doing only "useful" consumer spending (from which one gets an undeniable "kick"), such as buying Nadurra, trying new absinthe, etc. :))
No bank will loan without a title insurance policy.
ReplyDeleteGMO - I keep rubbing my eyes in disbelief of the AH price...
I guess China must adore having the FED to set their monetary policy?
ReplyDeleteKinda feels like housing is entering into a capitulation phase, doesn't it? You know sentiment sucks when title insurance policies are unloved...
ReplyDeleteSo let me just throw an idea out there by connecting a few dots:
ReplyDelete1) FED policy will fail without some other government branch joining the effort (El Erian)
2) FRE/FNM resolution proposal to be announced prior to next year or early January.
3) Appears to be the rats are deserting title insurers at an ever increasing pace.
Any conclusions? I suspect push is coming closer to shove and expect a turn around for title insurers in the wings.
Hopefully I won't be asleep at the wheel if/when something like this happens...
ABK - LOL, glad I wasn't buying there today... Those poor dumb bastards!
ReplyDeleteI remember John Mauldin said a couple of years ago that Ambac was heading for a bankruptcy. I even tried shorting it around $20 but was faked by the powerful short squeezes. How can one possible hold a reasonably sizes short position till bankruptcy through all that volatility and government intervention?
ReplyDeleteDavid - That's great man. Congrats again. My trades didn't make me a ton of money today...maybe a couple of grand, but that's including a bounce from REDF that is still underwater.
ReplyDeleteI did, however, manage to land the second biggest deal ever for my furniture website!!! We're providing office furniture for a design client down in Puerto Rico. They're redesigning an entire office with our line of modern office furniture.
Congratulations on your business deal, TOF! Unlike trading, where good luck alternates with bad luck, a successful business makes you money EVERY day, and is ultimately a much better source of income. Trading is just a game, as we have observed before.
ReplyDeleteThat's some cool office furniture deal, maybe I'll go to Puerto Rico and have a look-see!
ReplyDeleteTOF- Nice man!
ReplyDeleteAfter Hailey decided to cut her hair herself today, Patricia had to fix it. Upon returning from the store....
ReplyDeleteHailey, why is your hair so short now!
Well, mom just picked a hair and copied it.
Sounds like tons of fun going on over there!
ReplyDeleteOh, it's a laugh-o-minute with these 3 :))
ReplyDeleteInteresting action in GMO AH. It wasn't one of those strange single print things, but not a ton of shares either.
ATNI - Perked up a little AH...
ReplyDeleteOK, beside capitulation, what's the trade with ATNI? Doesn't look like your typical play.
ReplyDeleteGMO - Well, I don't see how that rally can continue on like it has on no news, it's getting silly.
ReplyDeleteTo me it seems like a blow-off top just before waves of selling come into play so I needed to react with some sort of discipline.
The only thing I can possibly lose at this point are the time and effort I've put into it consisting of an entire summer and a couple more gray hairs.
Actually it's been fun, I'd love to buy it back in a couple of months around $3.00 or less! ;)
ATNI - Actually I don't know a damn thing about it except they bought a big chunk of one of ALLTEL's regions and it looks like they bit off more than they can chew.
ReplyDeleteMy little death wish I suppose, no real theorem yet, just a hunch...
Here's a little bit of the history in a virtual nutshell:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.wirelessweek.com/news/2010/01/policy-and-industry-FCC-oks-Verizon-ATN-deal/
OK, thanks CP. I'll watch it.
ReplyDeleteWonder how long it'll take before email shows up in my mailbox proclaiming Obama's Hindu heritage?
ReplyDeleteATNI - If we get some clarification and they get things turned around, I imagine this one could easily run back up to $54 or thereabouts. The market is just too impatient?
ReplyDeleteoh man guys...i didn't tell you but i'm going on my bachelor party this weekend. 15 of my closest friends...we're going to scottsdale for a golfing trip. driving out wednesday night and staying til sunday. i'm psyched for the long, much needed break. here's to a couple of good days of trading to help pay for a few rounds of golf! good luck everyone.
ReplyDeleteHi Team, Congrats and so happy for you! Have Lots of fun!!!
ReplyDeleteI see the December NG futures are up 2% right now, so I figured that I should place a sell limit order on another 500 shares of UNG I own at $6.1, since my HNUZF is still in the process of going through a reverse split.
ReplyDeletenew post
ReplyDelete