Wednesday, December 22, 2010
12/22/10 The Crying Game> Human Nature and The Taoist Trader
For those of you who prefer reading to watching a clip, the pertinent story is linked here:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Scorpion_and_the_Frog
With homo sapiens, the stumbling blocks in life are always mental. We have trouble staying out of our own way (sounds more than vaguely familiar, no?). Human nature predisposes us to make the wrong moves when trading. To paraphrase something my youngest son likes to say when he's caroming the Sea Devil up river banks and over cliffs at the video arcade, 'I am way not a good trader-' caroming my entries and exits up and down price gyrations in response to predictable emotional swings:
(a) I opened several positions the past few days against my better judgment. I was fully aware the trades were ill-advised. But I entered the trades anyway. Why? Hubris.
(b) Of course, there's an element of hubris in any post- otherwise, why post at all? But more so should the post contain statements regarding specific entries and exits. And most of all when positions are opened countertrend using leveraged ETFs. So every trade the past week was opened on hubris, then (appropriately) quickly closed as each position moved against me.
(c) In an effort to 'analyze' why I overrode my own judgment, I started drafting some crap about human nature and 'subliminal sabotage.' Too funny. The fact is, we're not really competing with other traders. The real battle is with our own nature. That helps to explain why we often describe successful entries/exits as counterintuitive. 'Counterintuitive' is just another way of saying pulling in the reins on the 'Id.'
Anxieties about external market events start to fade when the focus is on controlling internal states of mind.
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"Don't break it if it's not fixed"
ReplyDeleteThunder Lizard
Hey, where's pretty-boy jbmadera?
ReplyDeleteI've got the perfect screen handle for him: Terrapene ornata
ReplyDelete2nd- I just printed out that post. Nailed me too the floor.
ReplyDeleteCP- JB got his tractor fixed and is headed this way hoping to land a job with me. He figures he'll be here in 4-5 days. I'll try to be gone by then :)
2nd- I lost tract. Still long UNG? I know everything else is flat.
ReplyDeleteCB- Still long RBY? I'm thinking of pruning some dead wood and picking some up.
ReplyDeleteLandry show tonight shows indices reaching new highs, sectors, including banks and regional banks trending, a few weak spots but mostly trending higher. When we see new highs and higher trends on such low volume and sellers refuse to hit the button then it is hard to imagine how this can be a bad thing unless they are keeping their powder dry for January and a new tax year.
ReplyDeleteI've been paring back positions as they hit price targets. SIRI came within .03 cents so I took partial profits there.
I agree with the psychological reasoning in this thread. I've noticed that if the trend is higher then taking a little heat usually works out. I'm very slightly underwater on UNG and NGD, but showing great gains in my other positions after taking partial profits.
Getting the upper hand is a great confidence builder, but I'm seeing this is done by finding the right stocks, ie: picking the right trending stocks with a sound screening tool and acting when it is right and doing nothing when it is appropriate. It's very useful to have a professional coach, which is how I see Landry.
It's been very helpful to me.
FF
Sorry, I really don't understand it at all.
ReplyDeleteThe stock's trading action looks miserable. As a matter of fact, all small miners looked miserable today.
But with RBY its a question of valuation. I just don't get it why the market thinks its only worth $200/oz off the low end of the gold estimates. Anyway, I think it will change drastically in the next 7 or 8 months. If I have to turn the screens off and go hide in a tent for 8 months, I will.
CB- I know you know this, but leave bread crumbs.
ReplyDeleteJo-Ann Stores got bought out. Keep an eye on ACMR. I say it rallies up to $4.
ReplyDeletenatty storage etimate for today is -180
ReplyDeleteport
Thanks, Bill- I did just that> Opened INTC @ 20.82 newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5084 comments) on Thu, 12/23/2010 - 08:36 #76467
ReplyDeleteIn addition to Bill's comments, note the current dividend yield of 3.3%.
In reference to my thoughts last night about getting out of our own way: Vad has a system that works consistently on an intraday basis. I've always thought that Bill's AZ/DZ works as well for longer time horizons.
Re: Thanks, Bill- I did just that> Opened INTC @ 20.82 newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5085 comments) on Thu, 12/23/2010 - 09:22 #76476 (in reply to #76468)
ReplyDeletejack- I still think the McAfee acquisition will in retrospect look prescient. Security is everything in cyberspace. It diversifies the company, and will add to earnings in ways we can't even imagine right now. JMO, of course.
morning all.
ReplyDeleteperhaps ya'll have seen this but I thought it was cool:
http://www.babelgum.com/Floored
fxe bounced off S3, probably a bad trade
ReplyDeleteAnother take on 'Overbought' newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5087 comments) on Thu, 12/23/2010 - 09:46 #76479
ReplyDeletehttp://tinyurl.com/2d5tykh
'The RSI oscillates between zero and 100, with moves above 70 believed to indicate an overbought condition, and declines below 30 suggesting prices are oversold. But meaningful market tops and bottoms don’t occur simply because technical indicators reached overbought or oversold extremes. The ability to reach those extremes helps support the longer-term trend.'
Broke even on my straddle on NFLX...Sold calls at open and just sold puts. I think it goes higher from here.
ReplyDeleteLong ACMR at $2.47.
ReplyDeleteINTC - Yes definitely a Christmas gift, especially if it retests the previous low, I must say.
ReplyDeleteLet me know if it does, I'll jump in too.
"Maersk to buy Brazilian oil fields from SK Energy for $2.4B."
ReplyDeleteTOF- That takes guts man. GL.
ReplyDeleteBro - the track is equipped with wireless broadband, so I'm a lot closer than you think!!!
ReplyDeletetrack=tractor.....hard to type and drive this beast at the same time...LOL
ReplyDeleteI took David's advice and added to the short side on a stock that looks weak and whose story I can get behind on the short side. I added to my RIMM $62.5 January puts at $4.43 average. The stock is now below its pre earnings level and its longer term chart shows a series of lower highs and lower lows. I'll probably be adding longer term in the money puts on the stock as well.
ReplyDeleteMark- I decided on the Droid. Should receive it in the mail next week.
ReplyDeleteCrap. Thanks for the heads up bro :)
ReplyDelete2nd- Good choice. I honestly can't believe how much I like/use mine. And I'm not a gadget guy.
ReplyDeleteRe: Thanks, Bill- I did just that> Opened INTC @ 20.82 newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5088 comments) on Thu, 12/23/2010 - 10:25 #76486 (in reply to #76483)
ReplyDeletejack- That's OK, man. You know, I bought/sold BAC several times the past few months. Whereas my wife bought around 12.50 and is still holding. She watched it drop to 11, of course. On the other hand, she'll probably still be holding when it hits 18.
Igor- Today is a good example of using imbalances. All the financials are getting creamed and AA is UP! Go figure.
ReplyDeleteToo funny!
ReplyDeletejb, Ms. Oliver Wendell Douglas sends seasons greetings:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b4_EdJ-XkUA
Please tell me that's not Art Cashin with the freaking Santa hat.
ReplyDeleteDear god, it is...
ReplyDeleteStay frosty guys. This action is crazy...
ReplyDeleteAt the close.
CP - you been sneakin' around filming my neighborhood? great video, the grandkids are coming over tomorrow and they will love to see it!
ReplyDeletesold FXE @130.61, scary ride
ReplyDeleteEh, not much going on with my port today...
ReplyDeleteScream at you guys later, still got some pre-snowstorm work to do!
Closed SPY Puts at $2.66 that I bought yesterday at $2.56. Added a little bit to RAS at $2.15.
ReplyDeleteAdded to RIMM Jan $62.5 Puts at $4.4. Now have 10 x Puts. May buy some March puts as well.
ReplyDeleteMark - good point.
ReplyDeleteI woke up this morning to see my stop loss execute on INTC at 20.80. The stop was set a while back below recent lows in preparation for Jan correction. Yesterday the stock got dangerously close to hitting the stop and I said to myself: "Leave it alone, let it execute if INTC shows continued weakness". Just after the stop executed I read Cara's blog which co-incidently talks about INTC as Christmas gift. So I gave it another chance for 500 share with a tight stop at 20.50. No more chances after that.
I opened a position today at a financial services company BEN which was recently dumped on concerns around people pulling money out of bonds funds. The company has strong balance sheet and seems to be oversold at this point. I started with 150 shares at 109.50 and then added 50 more at 108.25 as I was watching the stock slide a bit this morning (following David's philosophy of scaling into the position). I put a stop loss of 108 on it.
I also opened a small position in IT consulting company TECD.
I am currently looking to buy some stocks/
ETF that benefit from increased commodity value/demand and that could protect me against US currency crash ( No I have not been reading a lot of Peter Schiff lately). I am looking at countries with large natural resources pool: Australia and Canada. I am exploring currency plays FXA/FXC, ETF's of the respective countries EWA/EWC, Aussie's bond fund FAX and two big natural resources companies: BHP and TCK. Any thoughts?
AAII results
ReplyDeleteSubmitted by DavidV (52 comments) on Thu, 12/23/2010 - 13:50 #76505
Did you see the AAII sentiment results that came out today? They are off the charts! The bullish percentage jumped more than 10 points to 63.28 and the bearish percentage collapsed more than 10 points to 16.41. I am pretty sure that such a bullish-bearish spread has NEVER been observed before. This definitely will not end well -- who will keep doing the buying in January, when humans return to the floor?
I posted yesterday that I will try to hold off from buying any more puts until next week, but with such an extreme sentiment I'll probably add to my short exposure today (either through puts or through ultrashorts, I haven't decided yet).
David - I'm with you man. I'm currently about 50% in cash with about 30% longs in RAS (ouch) and ACMR and 20% shorts in SPY (I decided to short SPY today at $125.56) and RIMM Puts.
ReplyDeleteI am just about certain that the market tumbles again, but a slow tumble, between now and 2013. I think the speculation needs to be thoroughly cleansed from the markets before we begin a new bull market. I don't think 2008 did it. It was too quick and too many people (myself included) have made too much money too quickly after the crash to make it a market that is completely unloved. As Todd Harrison says, they have masked the symptoms with an enormous amount of drugs (stimulus) but the underlying disease (too much debt) has not been cured.
I just bought a couple more February $78 puts on IWM at $2.52. Now I think I have enough at-the-money puts (on SPY, IWM, OPEN, DB, EWP, CRM) and the risk of the market trending slightly higher and having all my puts expire is too high.
ReplyDeleteSo it is time to start buying ultrashorts. I just bought 500 shares of TWM at $12.39 and will buy 500 more next week if the market rises even more next week.
SBAY - I guess they liked the earnings...
ReplyDeleteSold SSO in one IRA and used 1/3 to open RAS @ 2.11 and 1/3 BAC @ 12.98.
ReplyDelete1/3 RAS @ 2.08.
ReplyDeleteA lot off big blocks of CRYP are trading @ 1.31.
ReplyDeleteCP- Didn't you mention SBAY yesterday? I thought it was a typo :)
ReplyDeleteIgor - "two big natural resources companies: BHP and TCK. Any thoughts?"
ReplyDeleteI've been watching TGB, the price is depressed more than others, IMO. Maybe there's a good reason, but I'm hard to convince.
Got stopped out on BEN this morning, probably because of the finanical sector being down today. I guess will need to find a better day for the entry point (may be after the correction).
ReplyDeleteFollowed David's lead on TWM opened 1000 shares position at 12.43. Now I have 3 126 SPY puts and TWM to play the downside. I will keep adding put and ultrashorts if the market continues the ascend.
Keeping tight stops on all long positions and 70% in cash. Hoping for orderly sell-off during the correction next year and picking up the last pennies of this rally.
Natural Resources - Don't forget about, CDE either, another candidate...
ReplyDeleteSBAY - These moves are for day traders, I'm trying to stay away from those b/c I don't have the capacity to evaluate on a real time basis.
BEN - My superficial quickie: Looks headed for 200SMA. Where it goes from there is hard to say, maybe just retest and consolidation period?
ReplyDeleteCould be a good entry if 200SMA proves support...
ATNI - How many times is this thing gonna bounce off $37?????!!!!
ReplyDeleteAre you guys ready to saddle up for the search party to find CB?
ReplyDeleteNOW? everyone wants RAS :)
ReplyDeleteHiding under the covers on the couch. Its kinda like a tent, but warm, especially if you turn on Sesame St and Thomas the Tank Engine instead of CNBC or Bloomberg
ReplyDeleteAh...That's what my son is doing also. But he's watching The Last Airbender :)....Home sick :(
ReplyDeleteCB is still doing alright. Not as alright as he was a couple days ago, but his head is still above water by .30 or so.
ReplyDeleteI doubt he even made it to the couch and his coffee cups and walls are still in fine shape and the dog still thinks the world of him.
That all might change if RBY get's much under 5.11 though.
Mark you dirty dog. You crushed me on your initial entries on RAS. I'm probably gonna double up on my shares next week. I'd like to have about 25-30k shares.
ReplyDeleteOh good....see? He's fine although hiding on the couch...but that is WAY better then watching CNBC or Bloomberg, or reading BC's blog.
ReplyDeleteTHAT place is positively psychotic and depressing.
Like a PTSD survivalist therapy session.
Sold TIE at no change and added to MMR @ 16.88.
ReplyDeleteYeah, I was the big buyer from 5.10 (no fills), 5.11 (partial, but large) thru to 5.16 (all filled), which averaged in with what I'd bought higher (5.30-5.33) the day before, I think.
ReplyDeleteJust daytrading while I wait (not patiently). Took about $4500 in profits today playing and DGP TZA again before I went to the couch. Cajme back to see the close. RBY did ok at the close considering gold was down a bunch on the day.
We watched Last Airbender marathon the other day. Then we had a self inflicted Lord of the Rings marathon. But the kids are out shopping today with their Mom.
ReplyDeleteI don't start shopping till tomorrow. It helps me get into a more Christmasy mood doing it that way, but its almost hopeless because I refuse to buy anything not made in North America. I always get depressed and desperate in the end and buy everyone goodies to eat or drink. Welcome to 21st century America.
There are those two words again: "therapy" and "session" in the same sentence!
ReplyDeleteJust a couple days left before the big snow storm comes crashing down on us in these parts...
Since BEN turned around ( I guess I got faked out of this one) I entered the position again with 150 shares at 18.89. Put a lower stop/limit 107.00/106.95. May be I should be more carefull with higher priced stocks and put stops lower since daily noise can easily trigger my stop position
ReplyDeleteSBAY - How 'bout them apples?
ReplyDeleteWell, they sucked another 0.83% out of my trading account today, and I haven't even got them where they want me, far from it!!!
ReplyDeleteGBCI - Another one that got away...
ReplyDeleteTOF- Yeah, I have no idea how I got that second 5,000 share lot @ 2.08. I entered my order once it was trading 2.08/2.09. There must have been 300K shares bidding @ 2.08 on level 2 when I placed my order. I figured it wouldn't get filled because the were so many ahead of me. It was trading really fast at the time, mostly @ 2.09. In the middle of all that green, one little 5K red trade went through and a second later it showed up as filled on my screen. Then of course, it shot up higher. That's never happened to me before.
ReplyDeleteMan it's quite here. Girls are off to the city for the night with their aunt and Harlan is sick up stairs. I'm sure Patricia is here some where...I think.
ReplyDeleteHo, ho, ho Merry Christmas everybody! Boy I'm glad this week is over...
ReplyDeletePKX - I'm a little surprised to see some green there, as Korean tensions appear to be building...
ReplyDeleteLME Molybdenum broke through $17 yesterday. ;)
The reason why I didn't make mucho bucks during the flash crash of 2010 was that I didn't have sell limit orders set on my put options. So as not to repeat the same mistake again, I just placed staggered sell limit orders on my January and February put options.
ReplyDeleteOn the other hand, in case the market makes a final thrust up next week before collapsing in January, I placed buy limit orders for 250 shares of TWM at $12 and 250 at $11.50, in addition to the 500 shares I picked up today at $12.39.
Sonoma mall report when I get back. Just to play it safe, I'm leaving all of my guns at home. Wish me luck.
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