Tuesday, December 21, 2010

12/22/10 It Never Rains In Southern California



The guy that bought Monday's SPX close?

Got on board a northbound one-two-forty-seven
Didn't think before deciding what to do
All that talk of 1300
Tax-cut breaks and groovies
Rang true, sure rang true
Seems it never rains the last two weeks of Q4
Seems I've often heard that kind of talk before

It never rains when it's De-cem-brr
But girl, don't they warn ya
It pours, man it pours

113 comments:

  1. Kyle- I haven't dated CAF in months, so I'd hate to say anything about her.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Igor- Did CP give you enough info on imbalances?

    ReplyDelete
  3. RBY - Wow, it sure did pop. Nice call CB! I just couldn't do it...

    ReplyDelete
  4. Imbalances: All you need is a simple bar chart.
    If it closes higher than the open there were more buyers. If it closes lower then the open there were more sellers.

    I'm amazed at how much distraction and noise I paid attention to for five or six years when I could have simplified it, had less frustration and made more money.
    When someone figures out how to read what will happen off the far right hand side of a chart, let me know! LOL!

    FF

    ReplyDelete
  5. Here we are at the gate of the S&P 500 bull pasture...

    ReplyDelete
  6. "SEC Probes Chinese Firms Doing`Reverse Mergers' and Their U.S. Auditors
    By Joshua Gallu - Dec 21, 2010 2:04 PM ET "

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-12-21/sec-probes-chinese-firms-doing-reverse-mergers-and-their-u-s-auditors.html?cmpid=yhoo

    ReplyDelete
  7. Trivia quiz:

    CSCO/JNPR - Compare the two, which is a better buy?

    ReplyDelete
  8. CSCO/JNPR - Compare the two, which is a better buy?

    Answer- Neither. It's BAC!

    ReplyDelete
  9. JKS - You want volume, look at this one.

    Personally, I don't really care for solar-voltaic stocks, I have my doubts about how green they really are in a bottom-line comparison to fossil fuels.

    Same with nuclear really, but much less doubtful if the waste issue is resolved.

    ReplyDelete
  10. NO CONTEST.

    JNPR on the next pullback and re-establishment of that trend.

    CSCO has to build a base, break out, pullback, then go again before it's a buy.

    JMHO.

    FF

    ReplyDelete
  11. JNPR: Only thing you have to ask is.....
    Is it worth more than it was in 2007 when it was last at these levels?
    Double top dead ahead...see 10/15/07

    If it made it this far and broke that high it's in free air.
    CSCO has work to do.

    FF

    ReplyDelete
  12. Session: A day of trading in the markets.

    ReplyDelete
  13. 2nd/TOF- You guys might have a good case here. I usually look @ 180 day charts for entry. Now it's more like 360 or longer.

    ReplyDelete
  14. JNPR - Well, the forward P/E is only 24.6, so maybe your right but I like CSCO's 10.7 P/E much better...

    ReplyDelete
  15. Did a quick took back @ 720 day charts. Energy/financials have the most room by far.

    ReplyDelete
  16. I think going forward the safest plays are a few select stocks on the long side only. Exit index funds.

    ReplyDelete
  17. P/E is irrelevant.
    There are all kinds of high and low P/E stocks that either rise or fall or that fall after awesome reports. That's just noise.
    what's the price doing? I just trade the price.

    Who said buy stocks that are going up? Was it Will Rogers? Whoever it was was right.

    CSCO is going down and the trend is down.
    JNPR is going up and the trend is up.
    Far be it from me to pick a fight with my friend the trend.
    However, I'm not establishing new positions right now, i'm good trailing and scaling my current positions. CAVM triggered today and all my other holdings are killing, so I'm just moving stops up and taking partial profits at pre-determined levels as they present themselves.

    JNPR needs a pullback anyway. That's the methodology.

    FF

    ReplyDelete
  18. Thank god CB. I've been staring at this screen waiting for an answer. Whimp! WTF are you holding so much cash! ;) Go get-um my friend!

    BTW, JB likes TRE. Some interesting news today. Any take?

    ReplyDelete
  19. everything but 1 account that has 800 shares of DGP...

    Not sure when/where I unwind it. Sometimes I just have these strong feelings and just throw everything in. I didn't sleep well last night as a result, but I did time it pretty well.

    Exit/unwind is another problem, but it looks like it won't be a problem in this case.

    ReplyDelete
  20. TRE is not one I really know. Sinclair is a guru, but it doesn't mean I risk my money on his co., nor would it prevent me from investing in it if I saw something big that was significantly undervalued there.

    ReplyDelete
  21. CB- This is a serious question. I couldn't sleep holding a position that large. How would you handle a big down draft on bad news. I'd puke. Seriously, all over my computer, wife, kids, dogs, and the fed-x guy. Then I'd hit the scotch.

    ReplyDelete
  22. CB- Too funny. You almost answered my question the same time I asked it.

    ReplyDelete
  23. Get some coffee mugs a pretend you are Nolan Ryan hurling them like fastballs into the wall. Steer clear of wife, kids and dog. Go to the couch.

    You are right, those are real tough days.

    But to be honest, what is the POINT of being REALLY RIGHT if your accounts don't VINDICATE YOUR CONVICTIONS?

    ReplyDelete
  24. Till tomorrow. I was worried how the market would react at first, but am not worried anymore. The AH action tells me the analysts thought it was very good news.

    ReplyDelete
  25. PS: Is is ANY MORE SANE to bet your life savings on the value of the US Dollar every night?

    Think on that one... We shouldn't have to worry about such things, but not to, anymore, would be very foolish.

    ReplyDelete
  26. FF- MORT fits you methodology nicely. Gap fill to boot.

    ReplyDelete
  27. CB- Your right. I guess I'm just a wuss. Maybe someday, but can't do it now. BAC is a very big play for me and not in line with how I normally trade, but it's working.

    ReplyDelete
  28. Mark, do you mean MRT?

    ReplyDelete
  29. FF- I understand Landry's work well. How do you handle position sizing compared to your overall port? Or do you ignore that?

    ReplyDelete
  30. Ya' know, I get some much pleasure out of going into my girls room's and wiping the hair off their face, putting the book away, and turning off the light. Priceless.

    ReplyDelete
  31. No, its not being a "wuss". I know its a HUGE risk doing what I did, but I really, REALLY believed in it. I actually have sufficient funds in a bank account earning 3% to last maybe 3 yrs, but even so, putting the entire portfolio into one single stock is just wild, and I know it.

    But think about how many nights you went to bed with all your accounts in US dollars, cash or debt. We don't even consider that as "taking a risk" at all, let alone it being a HUGE RISK, do we? But it really is, I think, and nobody sees it.

    ReplyDelete
  32. All positions have equal risk.
    Risk depends on your tolerance, but between 1 & 2% of total portfolio.

    So, to ascertain position size, you divide 1-2% of your portfolio by the dollar amt of the stop.
    Stop is determined by historical volatility of your stock.
    IE: $100,000 portfolio risk for any one holding is $1000 (1%) to $2000 (2%).

    So let's say you are buying a stock for $22 and the volatility of this stock and the recent pullback/knockout pattern dictates a $20 stop, or $2 at risk and you have decided you want to risk 2% of your port. The position size would be $2000 (2% of $100,000) divided by $2 or 1000 shares.

    In this way ALL positions have equal risk (in this case 2%) and position size is determined by how much risk in % you build in.
    Then, in the above example, you would set an equal price target of $22 plus the risk of $2, or $24 where you would take half of your profits and move your stop up to break even at $22 on the remaining shares.

    This is because the short term swing trading entry has better odds of succeeding than a longer term hold. So the first part of the trade (500 shares)is a swing trade and the second half (500 shares)is as long as possible.
    As the second half moves in your favor you trail the stop higher and loosen it as you gain more and more so as not to get taken out by noise.
    This way fewer trades fail, losses are limited to 2% and once you get to the price target it's very difficult to have a losing trade and you increase your chances for long term holding where the bigger money is made.
    It's essentially the best of both worlds, short term and longer term trading.

    ReplyDelete
  33. Craig- I hear you. Maybe I'll try making life easier on myself as well.

    ReplyDelete
  34. FF- Thanks. So I guess my question then would be, do you have 50 positions on now? Or am I wrong in looking at the total return of my port as a goal post? I can see keeping track of 20 positions, max, but that's it.

    These funds will hopefully be used for retirement, so daily returns are are not important. I should add that 80% of my port is in a taxable account.

    ReplyDelete
  35. cb- I'm glad it worked out. (You might ask your MD for a sleeper for nights when you need one.) Nothing beats the high of being right when you're all-in- maybe you can buy the pooch rib-eye for putting up with you ;)

    ReplyDelete
  36. Anon, I don't disagree, and know that I'm probably risking 5 to 10% instead of 1 to 2%.

    But at the same time, I will illustrate where I see the logic is flawed. Its based on "historical volatility". Ok, realistically, that's all we know, isn't it? But that DOES NOT guarantee that tomorrow's volatility will be within our expectations based on past history. Example: On Sept 11 2001, in the morning, everyone thought it would be a normal day. Example 2: On the day before the US dollar collapes, everyone will go to bed not expecting a collapse before they have a chance to hedge or move out of US dollars.

    I'm sorry, but I don't have the detailed knowledge of the timelines of previous currency collapses to prove that, but I think in time, proof will appear.

    We do not build in much risk of that type of event EVER occurring, let alone TOMORROW or next week, yet most of us have almost everything bet on it, and give it little thought.

    I guess I should try to find out... But if nothing else, I think it illustrates a huge flaw in most portfolios.

    Late 1980's USSR collapse would probably be a good example, I think...

    ReplyDelete
  37. JNPR vs CSCO: I think JNPR is a momentum stock which will do well if the market does not collapse, CSCO on the other hand will keep value better during the correction. JNPR claims that they are eating part of CSCO business while CSCO states that there is slowdown in government spending. Your decision on what stock to hold might partly depend on who sounds more credible here.

    ReplyDelete
  38. CYD - Chinese diesel engine manufacturer, looks like they got out from under the financial microscope they were mired in back in Sept and moved on.

    ReplyDelete
  39. CSCO - Just seems to me like a majority of the risk is already priced in. I guess if you're looking for a day trade JNPR might be a better choice but as far as parking money, I prefer CSCO.

    ReplyDelete
  40. "On the day before the US dollar collapes, everyone will go to bed not expecting a collapse before they have a chance to hedge or move out of US dollars."

    Yep, I've been hearing those words all my life! Yet, there are no better alternatives, gold just doesn't work in quite the same way when you've got to fish it out of a vending machine using one of those miniature cranes.

    ReplyDelete
  41. Mark, the risk is based on the stop, not the position size. 2% is the STOP for each position.
    IE: The example is for a $100,000 port.
    If all positions were in $22 stocks, then you could never have 50 positions. The STOP is 2% of total port. If ALL positions were $22 with 2% at risk then you could only have four full positions ($88,000) and one partial position of $12,000 (unless you used margin).
    Right now the Landry portfolio is around six stocks. With $100,000 @2% risk you couldn't hold all of them.
    Full disclosure: I am a Landry customer (I paid for 8 mos. of the service in one day) and I have to say it is easily the best, most reliable and well thought out methodology I've seen. I get an update every evening with a list of stocks long or short if it applies, entries, stops and initial price targets. We also get a list of possible stocks that may set-up so there is some discretion. WFT was one of those. So it is not in the Landry port but it was listed as a possible set-up in the last week. The evening updates also list which sectors are trending or what have you as Dave screens using Telecharts using a formula to initially screen the entire market which narrows it down, then he looks at the charts of the remaining stocks for possible set-up patterns. ie: persistent pullbacks long or short or knockout patterns, etc. etc.
    The evening updates are like a very long market in a minute with all sectors, the Landry portfolio and a list of other possible set-ups.
    This is also in written form for reference during trading hours.

    CB, it is true there could be a big gap down.
    If so, you would be stopped out of all positions at the first possible trade (my stops are advanced/conditional orders at market).

    Some might be for 2% and some would be for more but it is unlikely to be more than around 10% total but it wouldn't wipe a person out as some could be for more and some would be for less.
    For example I have held Cenex (CHSCP) for years, through the 2007-2009 period and the flash crash and it has such low volatility that it was essentially flat the entire time. Take a look at the chart of CHSCP for 5 years. Then there were stocks like C that went from the 50's to 97 cents in the same time period.
    Still, theoretically, risking 2% of $100,000 on each position would allow something like a $10,000 loss or 10% total, so you would live to trade another day.
    Since Landry encourages traders to be present for the open to take advantage of opening gap reversals I would still be present pre-market to see my 2% stops were gapped and exit as soon as possible. If not my conditional market orders would be hit to exit.
    I also keep a reasonable % of physical gold and silver. It might help in the event of a currency collapse or something insane, unless we have a nuclear winter in which case let's face it.....we're all screwed.

    FF

    ReplyDelete
  42. It should be noted that rarely is anyone (except CB right now) fully invested. A $100,000 portfolio usually has some available cash for unforeseen events or opportunities.

    FF

    ReplyDelete
  43. I'm not going to pretend its "common" for me, either. I have done this before, but its a few times a year at most, and only when I see fear and bashers in abundance all over an otherwise promising company. That is my cue for opportunity.

    ReplyDelete
  44. Mark- Thanks for checking with me on imbalances question. CP and FF covered it pretty well. How do you exit positions you pick up on imbalances ?

    ReplyDelete
  45. morning all - sold off a bit more BTX (it's moved well above my short term target), holding TRE (too many shares, forgot I had a buy limit order in there and during one of its dips it got triggered), expect some news any day regarding a new land lease, AEE, this one has been slow death and will bail if it pierces S1.

    overall still around 60% equities, 30% cash and 10% bonds.

    gl today

    ReplyDelete
  46. TZA/VXX> Closed 15.18/36.52 newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5079 comments) on Wed, 12/22/2010 - 09:17 #76416
    I was wrong. Took the hit. 'Nuff said.

    ReplyDelete
  47. CADC - I feel like I should add here but the price just isn't low enough yet to justify that.

    ReplyDelete
  48. Igor- I don't buy on imbalances. They are posted about 15 minutes before the close. If I'm looking to exit a position, that might be enough to make me do it. It's also very rare for the market to sell off if the financials have a buy imbalance going into the close.

    JB- Great patience with BTX. You've been well rewarded.

    ReplyDelete
  49. 2nd- Yeah, baby's got BACk :).

    Good WTIC report today. -6M bls.

    ReplyDelete
  50. HERO just fell off a cliff. Makes me a little nervous with MMR. No news I can find.

    ReplyDelete
  51. Gap fill for BAC. Next target is the 200ema @ 13.69. Although it's now starting to turn up also, so it might have to chase it higher.

    ReplyDelete
  52. Re: speaking as a bear newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5080 comments) on Wed, 12/22/2010 - 10:54 #76422 (in reply to #76418)
    dave- I agree. In a way it's almost as if the bear's been trying to take things down one stock at a time. HPQ. BAC. INTC. CREE. CSCO. V. BBY. They've all been taken down and have yet to recover.

    ReplyDelete
  53. Chinese companies upgrading their auditors this month:

    - December 16: China Integrated Energy (CBEH) appoints KPMG
    - December 15: Skystar Bio-Pharmaceutical (SKBI) Appoints Crowe Horwath
    - December 13: China Automotive Systems (CAAS) appoints PricewaterhouseCoopers
    - December 6: Wonder Auto (WATG) appoints PricewaterhouseCoopers

    ReplyDelete
  54. TOF- RAS might be forming a nice little flag pattern here.

    ReplyDelete
  55. RBY down. I guess I should have sold. I see bc put in a no comment post on it. I don't see the point of posting links to day old news without any comment on it, and to be honest, I thought it looked good, but am I really qualified to comment on it?

    ReplyDelete
  56. BBY?

    2nd/TOF- Is it possible that the high flyers can pull back and we get back to the blocking and tackling of the market. Energy/Financials/Con. desc.?

    That make up the bulk of SPX?

    Later gators.

    ReplyDelete
  57. Mark - I added to my RAS position this morning. I now have a decent sized position in the stock. I think it goes to $6 in 2011.

    ReplyDelete
  58. Re: UNG still bullish IMHO despite the drop/ UNG off @ 5.57 newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5081 comments) on Wed, 12/22/2010 - 11:37 #76425 (in reply to #76421)
    jack- You're probably right about this one taking off soon, but I've been 'off' on every call the past few trading days, so I'm going to cut this one loose.

    Back to 100% cash. A little less cash than a few days ago.

    ReplyDelete
  59. CB - I'm not bashing RBY (A large part of my RBY knowledge is limited to your shared research), but I did read a month or so ago where BC wrote "In reality RBY is a pig in a poke".

    That's not made up, I read it. So why does a guy who thinks RBY is "a pig in a poke" start buying? Paranoid schizophrenia comes to mind.

    I'll stick with my own battles of delusion, don't need added complications from seemingly unstable individuals (BC).

    ReplyDelete
  60. 1252 - As long as we continue to hold this level, we're at the gate to the bull pasture.

    Draw a horizontal line from here over to the left side of the chart going back to 2008 for further explanation.

    ReplyDelete
  61. adding a new one for me, strictly a TA/swing trade, FXE @130.34

    ReplyDelete
  62. Mark - Why would not one consider buying on imbalances? Yesterday's call would have been excellent especially looking at BAC and WFC today.

    ReplyDelete
  63. Later guys, we have no food in this house...

    ReplyDelete
  64. Bought 1 x RIMM Jan $62.5 Put at $4.55.

    ReplyDelete
  65. An imbalance to the buy side is certainly a positive indicator for your long positions, one of numerous indicators for consideration when making a trade.

    I doubt any of us has attempted a trade on just one indicator, it might work for short periods of time, especially in a trend?

    ReplyDelete
  66. Added more RAS at $2.31 now. Sold my BGZ at $8.77 that I bought at an avg of $9.05. Bummer. I decided to move some of that money into 10 x Jan SPY $127 Puts at $2.55 instead. I'm using this to hedge some of my longs, which include AAPL Calls and RAS. I still have 70% cash.

    ReplyDelete
  67. Re: VIX on sale. Ridiculously low price newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5082 comments) on Wed, 12/22/2010 - 12:31 #76427 (in reply to #76426)
    Les- I hear you. Somehow I don't think buyers here will be rewarded quickly.

    ReplyDelete
  68. did you see the honorable mention for teamonfuego buried in a motley fool article on REDF!!!!

    "But India is making an investment now to boost that number to 75 million by 2012 and 160 million by 2014, which would give the Indian portal a preeminent position. It's that projected penetration that has CAPS member teamonfuego expecting Rediff to prove that its current valuation is exceptionally cheap:"

    http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2010/12/21/tomorrows-monster-stock.aspx

    ReplyDelete
  69. RIMM, NFLX, and cable companies are great shorts longer term in my mind. Each of these will be crushed by streaming video from Apple / Google TV.

    ReplyDelete
  70. Anon - Haha...that's funny stuff. I posted that a couple of months ago on the Motley Fool Caps site that I was using to track some of my picks a while ago.

    ReplyDelete
  71. U.S. credit-card delinquencies fell in November to the lowest in almost three years as the six biggest issuers posted improved numbers, according to Moody’s Investors Service.

    Loans at least 30 days overdue, a signal of future write- offs, dropped for the 13th consecutive month to 4.38 percent, the lowest since December 2007, Moody’s said today in a report. Loans delinquent 30 to 59 days, the earliest sign of trouble, declined to 1.14 percent, near an all-time low. Write-offs for loans deemed uncollectible, a lagging indicator, fell to 8.58 percent from October’s 8.79 percent.

    The drop in new delinquencies bolsters the firm’s “expectation that charge-offs will ultimately break below the 7 percent mark later in 2011,” Jeffrey Hibbs, a Moody’s analyst, wrote in the report.

    The top six U.S. credit-card issuers, including JPMorgan Chase & Co., Bank of America Corp. and Citigroup Inc., all reported lower delinquencies for November in regulatory filings earlier this month. Write-offs climbed at JPMorgan and McLean, Virginia-based Capital One Financial Corp. They fell at the other four, including American Express Co. and Discover Financial Services, based in Riverwoods, Illinois.

    ReplyDelete
  72. Igor- I'm not saying imbalances might be an interesting scalp play. I just don't really use it that way. I'm more of a swing trader, and just like to keep an eye on it.

    ReplyDelete
  73. Nice headline in Yahoo Finance: "US Stocks Rise To Fresh Two-Year Highs, Led By Financials," and indeed, while the market is flat, XLF is up 1%. At the same time, DB is down 0.5%. THAT'S what I call choosing the proper market to short -- not the US market, but European!

    ReplyDelete
  74. Sold my AAPL Calls at $5 that I bought at $4.5 yesterday....but I'm already regretting it.

    ReplyDelete
  75. Guess there's a run on staplers...(ODP)

    ReplyDelete
  76. There's obviously a lot of supply in V still. I might bail with my profit. I just think over a little longer time frame I have this one right.

    ReplyDelete
  77. Saw this on SOH. Very short read and WAY funny.

    ReplyDelete
  78. http://www.businessinsider.com/check-out-this-epic-response-from-the-cleveland-browns-to-an-angry-fan-2010-12

    There you go...

    ReplyDelete
  79. Re: VIX on sale. Ridiculously low price / VXV
    Submitted by DavidV (51 comments) on Wed, 12/22/2010 - 15:08 #76440 (in reply to #76436)

    Thank you, Seamus, for the Barron's explanation. While having a noticeable impact on VIX, the end of December holidays have a much smaller impact on VXV, the 3-month volatility index for S&P 500. If you go to http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui and look at the $VXV weekly chart, you'll see it is at a 2-year low now, the level that was touched in May 2008 (when Dow rallied from 12000 to 13000 as a result of Paulson's money printing and everyone's conviction that he could take Dow to the moon) and then in April 2010.

    I have already picked up some puts on EWP and DB at the top of their amazing rebound in early December, since their 1-year chart is in a downtrend and indeed they have been recently going down despite the US markets going up. When VIX dropped to 16, I couldn't resist the temptation and picked up some Feb $78 puts on IWM and March 125 puts on SPY. I'll try to hold off from buying any more puts until next week, when the holiday season will be almost over, as I suspect the market will most likely stay afloat until the end of the next week. January should be fun, though, just like it was in 2010. :)

    ReplyDelete
  80. added 5 more Jan $127 SPY Puts at $2.56. Now have a total of 15.

    ReplyDelete
  81. I figured that instead of hoping to catch the market top and load up with puts right at the top, I'll just keep scaling into puts now. So I just picked up one February $126 put on SPY at $3.21. Will buy one more put of choice next Monday and then next Wednesday. And then I should be all set for the fireworks in January. :)

    ReplyDelete
  82. Imbalances...

    BUY- C/BAC/WFC/MS/JPM/COF/AXP

    SELL- AA

    ReplyDelete
  83. Oh man...my timing is impeccable right now. RAS is tanking for whatever reason. I'm glad I didn't go all in but I do have about 15,000 shares of it with an unrealized loss of about $1,200.

    ReplyDelete
  84. And I see that just when i was going to buy REDF it ran up oh only 29% today. between that and ADES I could have made a decade's worth of gains in a month.

    ReplyDelete
  85. I'm calling it a double. +1.56%

    At the bar!

    ReplyDelete
  86. ATNI - Heading for $42 or better if this market can just keep from falling apart.

    CADC - Will add once this one stops falling.

    ReplyDelete
  87. SBAY - Reports earnings tomorrow, this could get interesting from an observation standpoint....

    ReplyDelete
  88. Hey, what are you Mud Ducks up to out there?

    ReplyDelete
  89. CSCO - Notice, this one's been flat for a month now, and up ~ 0.45% in the last 5 or so therapeutic sessions.

    ReplyDelete
  90. Jeez this market is a hot one eh? I've basically sat out of the past month's worth of gains, making money the first two weeks and losing money the past week.

    ReplyDelete
  91. For what its worth (and I've been wrong for the past week), this feels a lot like fall 2007 just in terms of how thing have traded. I can remember doing a ton of research on the housing market and being convinced that everything was going to hell back then. Yet the market continued to rise after August right through to the end of October. I actually got bullish and went long Cisco stock and a small amount of in the money CSCO calls. I made a lot of money but I decided to hold through their call in January. Needless to say I lost a good amount on those investments.

    Anyway, I knew the market was bound to correct yet I ignored my research and intuition and went long at the wrong time. I'd have to imagine there are a lot of people doing the same thing now. We had our first hiccups in Greece, then Ireland, and people were convinced the world was crashing. Yet the market has now rallied over 25% from the lows in the summer. Stocks like TIF, COH, CAT, DE, etc are running like crazy. People are exceptionally bullish and calling for 20%+ gains in 2011. Yet there are some big names that are crashing, like BBY, CSCO, NKE, and the highfliers are losing steam. It just sounds like some strange dream reminiscent of 3 years ago.

    ReplyDelete
  92. I noticed there were some major reversals in those very names I mentioned above...look at SNDK, TIF, COH, M, DE...maybe its time to sell calls on those?

    ReplyDelete
  93. By the way, before the close today I entered a straddle of sorts that involves 6 x Dec 23 $185 Puts at $1.5 and 1 x $Dec 23 $180 Call at $5.7. I'm doing it with the off chance that the market gaps lower and NFLX gaps lower as well. If this happens and NFLX goes to $180 then I would make have a return of about $3,000 on a trade of about $1,500. If the stock opens unchanged then I would probably lose about $500. If it opens up at like $190 then I would lose about $400.

    I also added one more RIMM $62.50 Jan Put at $4.55 so I now have 2 x RIMM Puts.

    I also added a few more SPY Jan $127 Puts at $2.57 and now have 20 x SPY Puts. It's a pretty large position but I'm willing to take this risk because of the likely drop that I think is coming in the market.

    To offset this, I began building a position in RAS at $2.3 that I unfortunately built too quickly over the past 2 days. I have about 15k shares in that, which I really like longer term. The weekly chart looks like it's in a clear uptrend with a series of higher lows and higher highs. The swings between lows and highs are crazy - even after a move up of about 50-60%, the stock is 50% from its highs in May.

    ReplyDelete
  94. "We had our first hiccups in Greece, then Ireland, and people were convinced the world was crashing. "

    Actually, I'm more concerned with California (no more foie gras for you, end of grace period), everyone says the debt there is much larger.

    So I was wondering what assets Cali might have that could be auctioned off to cover the debts, there must be some?

    ReplyDelete
  95. And if/when bond holders decide they don't want to carry risk any longer, where does their money go?

    ReplyDelete
  96. CP- Back away from my Fing foie gras man. We take such threats seriously here.

    ReplyDelete
  97. Is there any market related website that has been as consistently wrong as Zerohedge? I can only think of one close second.

    ReplyDelete
  98. Hold onto your hats Natty players. Futes up .001!

    BTW, I can't believe no one commented on the picture I posted with Kendra looking at that much larger play. By far my favorite pic. She was playing a game with an older team. They won 4-2 and she had 3 goals. That girl was all over her. Too funny :)

    Speaking of soccer, where's RB?

    ReplyDelete
  99. Either gold has a move up in store, or copper needs to come down.

    ReplyDelete
  100. DBB - Another copper green day.

    And, who is the single trader that reportedly owns 80~90% of the London copper inventory anyway?

    BTW, copper inventory figures have been on the rise recently, but:

    "Copper for delivery in March fell 0.6 cent, or 0.1 percent, to $4.27 a pound at 10:55 a.m. on the Comex in New York, after earlier today touching a record $4.2965. Copper for delivery in three months lost 0.2 percent to $9,350 a metric ton on the London Metal Exchange. The metal reached a record $9,392 a ton in London yesterday....

    The International Copper Study Group is expecting a 435,000-ton global deficit in the refined metal next year.

    Tin for three-month delivery on the LME fell 0.9 percent to $26,650 a ton. Nickel lost 0.5 percent to $24,500 a ton and zinc slid 0.2 percent to $2,325 a ton. Aluminum gained 0.9 percent to $2,456.50 a ton and lead rose 0.5 percent to $2,445 a ton.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-12-22/copper-falls-in-london-on-higher-stockpiles-decline-in-chinese-equities.html

    ReplyDelete
  101. I thought I had gotten the household well on the way in preparation for the coming giant snow storm, but I see there's maybe a jigger of cognac in the cupboard, oh CRAP!

    ReplyDelete
  102. There's no longer a jigger of cognac in the cupboard... Problem solved!

    ReplyDelete
  103. Sit tight CP!! I'll hook up the booze wagon to my truck and be there in 4 days.

    ReplyDelete