Tuesday, December 28, 2010

12/28/2010 Commment Cleaner.



There are very few TA things I follow, but gaps are like magnets.

53 comments:

  1. Speaking of gaps, there's a beautiful 3.55-3.49 gap in RAS :)

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  2. There you have it David. SGG hit 100 today.

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  3. Could it possibly be? A gap higher tmrw? That would be a doozy.

    Cheapy congrats on the return in the ira. One of my iras I started in 2007 with only $2k is at about $40k now which is crazy.

    I always daydream abt how I wish I could've had those returns in all accounts

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  4. I'm really ham strung with my accounts. Only 10% of my funds are available to trade in tax deferred accounts.

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  5. I'm trying to link to my charts on screencast so lets see if this works.

    I've been trading in and out of EPM over the last few months. I still have 1,000 shares and I'm curious to see how you guys would handle this. For now I'm thinking I would set a stop somewhere around $6.15 which is the low for today and yesterday. If we trade up over the next two days then I'm thinking I would move the stop up to the midpoint of today's candle which is around $6.46. Another method might be to place a $.50 trailing stop on it now and then tighten that up some if the trading range narrows like it did in the month of Sep10. WHat do you guys think?

    This is the weekly chart
    http://www.screencast.com/t/5gYtGffAbUbU

    This is the daily chart.
    http://www.screencast.com/t/EwL0iagyQQ2

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  6. I haven't added up the numbers, yet, but on a percentage basis it hasn't really been a great year, maybe 25 or 30% overall, but it was enough money in dollar terms to add 5 yrs to my retirement, so it was good from that respect.

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  7. Charts work great Port. Did you get my email about the con call?

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  8. MCP - Unfounded knee-jerk reaction yesterday, lose hands shaken out.

    It's been a real tear from $30, I'll give it a while to see if the enthusiasm wanes...

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  9. Re: Wrap It UP newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5103 comments) on Wed, 12/29/2010 - 10:00 #76719
    Ron- I enjoyed reading your son Conor's year-end retrospective/outlook. Very creative arrangements of major themes. To the extent 'reality' depends on the angle from which we view the (same) world, I found it quite useful.

    Link reposted from December 28 thread-

    http://tinyurl.com/2ucdqgc

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  10. Long CMG at $221.3. I have been watching this and waiting for a break of $221. Now that it broke this I think it can run up to $240.

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  11. Kyle- Thanks for the link.

    Hussman, Hulbert and Kass can be/have been wrong. Unlike mutual fund mgrs, however, we don't need to be fully invested at all times. It's also hard to read much into price movements last week in December. Add up all of the above, and I'm going to take a hike.

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  12. Long 500 shs BBY at $34.45. It broke through $34.42 resistance.

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  13. Sold CMG at $222.7. Made $130.

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  14. Nice little scalp TOF. Now you can buy your lovely bride a ring :)


    Not much cooking here. Kinda looks like we fade to black over the last few days. BTW...1/2 day on Friday?

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  15. 2nd - That's probably a smart move. I tried to trade LVS yday from the long side 2-3 times and was stopped out on all attempts. Today's adventure is AVL. Looks like the same thing is going to happen...

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  16. Added 500 BBY at $34.36

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  17. Long a few EBAY $26 Jan Calls at $2.73.

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  18. Looks like MMR is going to have to carry the team today.

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  19. 2nd - Best I can figure is that 2010 was like 2004 and 2005 combined probably due to QEx. Some of the 2003 levels were tested. 2006 levels may have some relevance as we go forward.

    http://www.screencast.com/t/gC08J1qtybE

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  20. SHLD - You don't suppose the giant-sized PE on this one has anything to do with the price moving higher today, do you?

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  21. Took my loss in BBY at $34.32. False breakout perhaps.

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  22. PAL/GMO - Running neck and neck again, the correlation is uncanny.

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  23. BBY - Ha! Don't feel bad, I bought ATNI @ $38.80 and rode it down to $32, where I should've added but didn't!

    Now I'm almost back to even, no doubt I'll enjoy some gains in the not so distant future...

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  24. Sold 500 shares of FTK on today's little spike up.
    Still have a sizable position in multiple accts and will re-load as presented. $300 is $300...smoke em if you got em.

    Hmmm....there it goes again, maybe should have been more patient? NAH.
    If it goes back to it's previous highs I'll be partying like it's 1999.

    FF

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  25. SHLD - I just don't get why anyone would buy an equity trading at 55x earnings (and PEG of 4.52, no less!) unless maybe they were anticipating a sharp earnings increase... I suppose miracles have been known to occur around this time of year, or that's the claim...

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  26. Just a reminder for today's market action....
    Positions sold today won't settle until 2011.

    I'm seeing substantial moves/volatility and sales.
    Some are mine.

    FF

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  27. Hope you acted on your SHZ idea Jesse!

    GL guys...at the close.

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  28. SHZ - Yeah, XING is flying today as well.

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  29. Mark-

    Unfortunately, I'm just holding some UNG at the moment. I'm on the road and not doing too much trading. SOL looks to be setting up. RAS continues to look good. That ones been on my radar for a couple of years now....REDF continues its march. That one had the very best weekly chart I've ever seen during the last week of November when it was basing at $3. I bought a bunch then unloaded it due to my dire market predictions:(:( Boo

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  30. btw- Still waiting for smart money to spike down and PC ratio to close below .65 ish before making any bearish bets. Until then....anything goes.

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  31. jesse - REDF looks really strong. I made gobs of money on that one back in Sept...bought it at $1.9ish and sold it at around $4.80. I then bought back at $4.2 or $4.1 and sold at a loss at $3.6, which totally sucked. I almost bought back in at $3.9 a week or two ago much to my dismay. Oh well. I like them and RAS a lot long term.

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  32. At this point in the short term I like RAS more than REDF given the run in REDF and the fact that RAS is trading at a tiny fraction to book value and earnings and the weekly chart looks fantastic. I'm long RAS with a large position right now so I'm definitely biased.

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  33. Man......FTK up 12% on nearly dbl volume.
    God bless America.

    FF

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  34. Long CMG again at $221.33.

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  35. RAS - Isn't debt to equity ratio a little high, is this debt financed and locked to today's low rates?

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  36. Chicken - Debt to Equity, at about 2.7, is actually on the lower end when compared with its industry. But they have been shrinking this ratio through debt repurchases at significant discounts to par. Debt to Equity was about 25:1 at 12/31/2007, 7:1 at 12/31/2008, and 3:1 at 12/31/2009. They don't have any significant debt due in the near term and they have plenty of cash to cover short term debt. Also, they are meeting all debt covenants.

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  37. Just ran in for a sec. Sold BAC in my IRA and bidding 8K RAS @ 2.22.

    Later...

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  38. Seeing that SWN followed the market up today, I decided to sell what I have in all my accounts, with the intention of re-entering SWN in the fall of 2011. In my trading account I sold 100 shares at $37 (which I bought at $31.79, and I still have a couple of January $37 puts on SWN that I sold for $2.33, so I will naturally re-load SWN at better prices if those puts are assigned to me).

    When SWN traced out a bottom and started going up, I put all my children's Coverdell ESA accounts and 1/2 of my small IRA account into SWN at $34, and I just sold all of that at $37. Finally, during the summer I placed the other 1/2 of my IRA into ECUXF at $0.6, and I just placed a sell limit order for those shares at $1.28. I suspect that silver and ECUXF will not be able to withstand the sharp broad market correction when it comes, and I'll reload ECUXF in my IRA at the bottom of that correction.

    Also, in a preparation for that correction, I placed sell stop limit orders in the Coverdell ESA accounts for TWM at $12.50/$12.53 for all the cash I have in each one (3K in one and 6K in the other), and then placed a similar order in my trading account for 500 shares (I have already purchased 500 shares at $12.39 last week).

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  39. I know I've mentioned the 1998/1999 parallel before but it's worth posting again. The marking is acting almost identically as it did back in the fall/winter of 1998. If history is any guide, we should get another push higher and then a sharp/quick 5% pull back before continuing higher.

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  40. I'm sitting here watching SHZ trade. Unreal.

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  41. BYD, one of Tof's current/old likes.

    On tube likes it at b/o of 10.20 was 10.10 when he spoke. has a 40% short interest.

    FWIW t3d

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  42. BYD I guess the pumps in force just broke while doing above post

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  43. re:shz, from what i can see they have less than 300 people employed...crazy times

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  44. was slow on the mouse but I did pick up some rnow, takeover target, my guess IBM

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  45. 10% haircut on BTX, should have taken another 1/3 off...live and learn

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  46. Picking up some SPXU/TZA 19.31/15.23. The market should not dip due to the heavily upside biased seasonality here, but man, these inverse etf's look poised to explode. Strange market here- emerging markets- EEM/FXI etc. look like they are about to take off and U.S. market looks cooked. As always, will have a VERY short leash on these inverses....

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  47. BTX- Yikes. No news I could find.

    Probably best to retire the 9er helmet. Man, they SUCKED on Sunday.

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  48. t3d > I bought the spike in BYD...bought 30 x Jan $10 Calls at $0.65, thinking this could run more tomorrow and give me a nice gain on the options. there is pretty decent resistance at 10.35 on a closing basis and if it goes through that then the upside is possibly to $12.

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  49. I sold my eBay calls earlier at $1.91 that I bought yesterday at $1.81. I also sold my April $26 calls at a small profit.

    Like an idiot, I decided to buy 2 x CMG $210 Jan Calls at $15.5 even though I knew I should have waited until it broke $222 on the upside. So now I'm stuck with these suckers and am hoping/praying that tomorrow the market doesn't continue its late day slide from today.

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  50. Re: I'm not buying risk at this juncture newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5104 comments) on Wed, 12/29/2010 - 19:08 #76768 (in reply to #76761)
    That's about as 'sound' a judgment call as exists in trading. Unlike fund managers, none of us are required to be fully invested at all times nor to chase performance. There will be much better (aka safer) entry points, even for those with bullish outlooks for 2011.

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