That's four stars, not letters. At some point, if one is make any money in the market, one needs to take on risk when others are avoiding it. No one earns four stars staying home playing the board game, right? The portfolio should be managed as a real-life battle- it often feels like one.
August 31 of this year was a good starting point. The China/Ireland/North Korea jitters offered other good entries. Stocks like AA/BAC/CSCO/GE/INTC/MSFT/WFC/XOM (mainly DJIA components, for crying out loud) were pricing in the opposite of where the economy now appears headed, which might best be described as a stealth recovery- difficult to glimpse, but when I watch/listen to shoppers at the store or colleagues at work, it's clear confidence is returning. You have to pay attention to notice it.
Of course, this is JMO. But I have to act on my opinions, or I might as well be playing the board game.
[edit] Has anyone noticed that 'buy-and-hold' has been working, now that it's officially dead? Another 'strategy' that may once again hold water- 'Sell in May?'
We returned last night from 'The Happiest Place On Earth.' I decided to make the 7-hour drive in the evening rather than do it today.
ReplyDelete2nd - Is that Disneyland?
ReplyDeleteATNI - Mark, this is the company that bought Alltel assets from the Verizon Alltel acquisition.
ReplyDeleteLooked like volume was picking up but maybe not. I'll probably just wait a bit before adding, no hurry...
I thought Disney World claimed to be the happiest place on earth. One in the same or are we talking in the plural? ;)
ReplyDeleteAnd I agree with Bill (Miller).
ReplyDelete[edit] Has anyone noticed that 'buy-and-hold' has been working, now that it's officially dead? Another 'strategy' that may once again hold water- 'Sell in May?'
ReplyDeleteYes, Anaheim. In fact, it rained briefly in the morning on Monday, which led to the shortest wait times ever experienced (10 minutes max) for most rides. The 8-year-old + his best friend hit so many rides they asked to leave at 3p b/c they were tired!
ReplyDeleteBuy and hold has been working quite well for me up until recently where my port has been flat to down for weeks.
ReplyDeleteCopied from the old post...
ReplyDeleteTBT off @ 37.83 on the auction. +6.50%
BORN also filled @ 10.24. Didn't really think it get there. We'll see.
MMYT is getting closer and closer to me wanting to buy it, stash it away, and look at it a few years down the road.
ReplyDeleteGMO - Be prepared for the fat lady's song, the state engineer is set to make a water rights ruling following this week's hearing.
ReplyDeleteAt the moment it's unclear if the time line in reference is a day or a month...
BORN- Man, that's a tough way to enter a trade :)
ReplyDeleteplayed TZA for 10 cents, now up $300 for the day
ReplyDeleteBORN - To be wild!
ReplyDeleteCADC - Can this one reclaim the 50SMA?
ReplyDeleteIt must at least close better than $4.09...
Exiting TBT for BORN...Man, so far that looks like ONE of my dumbest moves :)...Thank god I have a ton of BAC.
ReplyDeleteBORN - Putting aside my unfamiliarity with details of the business model and market share, etc., my only concern with an entry here is the PE is near the top of the range of where these Chinese small caps stubbornly reside.
ReplyDeleteCP- Yeah, I've followed it for a while. 1000 share starter position. If you have time, check it out for me. Seems pretty good with the new plant to open in Jan.2011. Maybe traders think it will add too much capacity.
ReplyDeleteONP - Somebody likes this one today...
ReplyDeleteBAC- Got to be shorts bailing. That's crazy chit man.
ReplyDeleteDGW - Same thing's true with this one, near top of PE range.
ReplyDeleteI would like to own large(er) (in terms of my port) chunks of Chinese infrastructure plays and would, if there weren't such a large crowd constantly screaming about risk, doom, gloom, and the impending end of humanity.
Damn, we really F'ed up on CREE.
ReplyDeleteBAC - Seems like the gain should hold if shorts are bailing.
ReplyDeleteI'm watching silver closely. Didn't have the brains or whatever's required to short @$30, failure there might signal weakness across the board?
I'll see if I can abscond any data/info on BORN....
CREE - I fear we're also f'ng up on CSCO...
ReplyDeleteBORN - Looks promising, doesn't mean it won't trade down in PE but speaking in longer terms I think it's not unreasonable to anticipate a $15 target. I bet there are an entire waft of Chinese stocks that will eventually prove themselves.
ReplyDelete"The Daqing Phase III facility is on schedule to become operational in January 2011, which will expand the Company's total production capacity by 120,000 tons, or 46%, to 380,000 tons. Of the increased 120,000 tons capacity, the Company has already won pre-sale letters of intent totaling 107,000 tons, or 89% of the increased capacity. For the full year of 2011, Borun's Daqing facility and Shouguang facility together have already entered letters of intent with customers to sell a total of 305 thousand tons of edible alcohol, accounting for over 80% of Borun's expanded total production capacity.
2010-11-16 Cowen & Co. Reiteration Outperform n/a
2010-11-09 Piper Jaffray Reiteration Overweight $22.00
2010-10-20 Piper Jaffray Reiteration Overweight $22.00
2010-08-05 Piper Jaffray Reiteration Overweight $9.70
2010-08-03 Cowen & Co Initiation Outperform n/a
CSCO- 2nd's got that one covered for the team :)
ReplyDelete$15 or better, that is. Meanwhile, more downside would offer sinful opportunities?
ReplyDeleteSinful Opportunities...I think I dated her in college.
ReplyDeleteGood, at least 2nd's got it covered!
ReplyDeleteAAII Survey/ WSJ take newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5022 comments) on Thu, 12/09/2010 - 15:48 #75719
ReplyDeletehttp://tinyurl.com/2dub8ya
WSJ article affirms my doubts about the statistical utility of the survey. On the other hand, fading the results seems to work a surprisingly high percentage of the time.
'What Mr. Springer and few on Wall Street know is that the survey's sample size is typically so small, and its methodology so fraught with holes, as to render it statistically worthless.
'Just 200 to 300 investors respond each week, less than 0.2% of the association's 150,000 dues-paying members, according to the Chicago-based group, which doesn't publish the sample size. Among them are a large number of retirees, the AAII says—giving this tiny slice of the investing community an unusual amount of sway over Wall Street.
'From a strict, statistical perspective, the AAII's survey is "pretty much useless," said David Madigan, professor and head of the Department of Statistics at Columbia University, who is particularly troubled by survey's reliance on voluntary self-reporting.
"The thing you worry about is the bias of the people who volunteer. The concern is, why would someone choose to respond to this?" Prof. Madigan says. "If you were using it to make statements about how the general membership feels, then you're on really shaky ground. But maybe the opinions of the 200 who are motivated enough to respond is predictive of what the markets are going to do."
'And despite its formidable statistical limitations, the survey has been surprisingly useful as a marker of turning points, especially market bottoms.
"It's almost like clockwork," said Al Frank's Mr. Buckingham. "The reaction is immediate and it's fascinating."
'For instance, on March 5, 2009, the AAII survey registered its lowest bullish reading in 17 years. Days later, the Dow Jones Industrial Average embarked on a 13-month bull run that sent it up more than 80%. This year, in late August, bearishness jumped to its highest point of the past five months, just as the Dow began a 14% rally.'
For all these years we've been relying on the voluntary reporting of btw 200-300 people? For crying out loud. I suppose it's amazing it works as a contrarian indicator.
ReplyDeleteImbalances...
ReplyDeleteBUY- BAC/WFC/MS/JPM/GS/IBM/PAL/MGM
SELL- 0
2nd- I think the sample pool size is roughly the same for the Mich. Consumer Confidence index.
ReplyDeleteMaybe we get more definition on China's monetary policy soon?
ReplyDeleteRe: AAII Survey/ WSJ take newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5024 comments) on Thu, 12/09/2010 - 19:26 #75740 (in reply to #75738)
ReplyDeleteDave- My comment may have been unclear- I was trying to say that in spite of the fact that the article seems to validate my 'objections' to its utility, the survey has nonetheless been quite successful in marking turning points. So I can continue to argue why it's useless, or I can accept its track record in predicting market direction.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?play=1&video=1640401359
ReplyDeleteGreat interview. This guy's company is one of my clients on my "real" job.
Thanks for the link TOF. I saw part of that but just watched it in full.
ReplyDelete2nd- Are you still on vaca, or do I have to fill in?
ReplyDeletehey guys - i gotta say that the more i'm looking around at these high fliers, the more nervous it makes me feel about holding anything. i think there is way too much speculation in the markets right now. look at the valuation on the following companies:
ReplyDeleteCRM: trades at 60 times free cash flow
OPEN: trades at 121 times FCF
NFLX: trades at 45 times FCF
FFIV: trades at 40 times FCF
The more I peel back the onion the more it stinks to me. I think there is way too much speculation in this market. What do you guys think?
TOF - How can you make such a conclusion about the market in general based on just 4 separate stocks?
ReplyDeleteSurely the entire S&P isn't trading at 40x FCF?
It would be nice though if someone who knew what they were doing, such as an industry veteran or even a wizard perhaps, were to take a brief hiatus from ranting and raving long enough to show us how to assess such a metric by ourselves.
ReplyDeleteFat Chance! Build a platform and monetize it!