Wednesday, December 8, 2010

Big Bill...No, not that one.

NEW YORK, Dec 8 (Reuters) - Legg Mason Inc's Bill Miller, the star stock picker who was hammered by the recession, is
bullish once again on stocks because of President Barack Obama's tax cut plan and the stimulus it will provide to the U.S.
economy.
Miller, famous for beating the returns of the S&P 500 Index for 15 straight years and then crashing spectacularly in 2008,
believes U.S. stocks are undervalued by 20 to 30 percent and under appreciated by institutional and retail investors.
Using a calculation called Present Value of Growth Opportunities, which normally shows about one-third of market value is
pricing in expectations of future growth, Miller said that metric is low.
"Right now, the S&P 500 is pricing in zero growth, even though manifestly earnings growth has been jugging along very
nicely for six quarters. The market is valued as if there would be no more growth forever," Miller said in an interview at the
Reuters 2011 Investment Outlook Summit.
Until share prices climb higher, many investors will stay out of the stock market, Miller said.
"What people aren't paying enough attention to right now is the U.S. is uniquely and powerfully positioned relative to the
rest of the world. That is, we are following economic policies that are far superior," Miller said.
The euro is acting as a modified gold standard, forcing deflation and austerity on European countries in economic trouble,
Miller said.
But the United States has latched onto what he called a Keynesian prescription, increasing government spending to spur
economic growth.
Miller hailed Obama's compromise to extend Bush-era tax cuts for two years and implement a 2 percent employee payrolls
tax cut, calling it "a very big deal."
The tax cuts could add between one half to three quarters of a percentage point to gross domestic product in 2011, he said.
The tax cuts are good for jobs and the stock market, and would likely force the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates
sooner than expected, which has been reflected by a rise in bond yields this week, he said.
Miller, who likes out-of-favor stocks, said financials and big tech companies should do well next year. The KBW Bank Index
is trading at below book value, a rare occurence. Yet 25 percent of 2011 earnings growth in the S&P 500 will be driven by
four banks: Citigroup Inc, BANK OF AMERICA, JPMorgan Chase & Co and Wells Fargo Co
Miller said that in addition to BANK OF AMERICA, tech heavyweights CISCO Systems Inc and INTEL Corp represent great value.
Miller's flagship Legg Mason Capital Management Value Trust is underperforming 98 percent of its peers year to date as of
Tuesday, according to Lipper Inc, a unit of Thomson Reuters Corp.
The fund, however, rose 40.6 percent in 2009, beating the S&P 500 index. Miller said he expected the fund to underperform
in 2010 as managers rotate their portfolios.
"I didn't expect we'd be down this much relative to the market because I didn't expect the rotation would be this strong," he said.
"But what I did expect was the groups that did really well, the best groups last year, would not be the best groups this year.
So the top groups last year are among the bottom groups this year," he said.

OK, so I highlighted BAC :)

[edit] And I added CSCO and INTC to the highlights- Hehe.

26 comments:

  1. I guess I should have posted another "Baby Got Back" video :(

    ReplyDelete
  2. CP- Best I can tell ANTI fills it's gap @ 30.21.

    What's the story again with this one??

    ReplyDelete
  3. evening folks, tired from a long day of traveling

    TBT is my focus now. There are two guys that talk about bonds on Real Money and one of them says there is a 30 yr auction tomorrow. Now if you believe in intervention and conspiracy theories like I do, then you would think their might be a little nudging to get those rates down meaning a pullback for TBT. Long term I still like it. All I have at this point are my shares at cost of 36.93 and short the DEC 37 calls at .91. TBT closed at 38.22 and the calls are now $1.63. I may just wait till Friday before I do anything.

    One guy is suggesting that bonds will keep selling off short term but you would be rewarded by going long bonds in the 1 to 2 month time frame. His first pick is High Yield followed by TIPS, then MUNIs, then investment grade corp (especially financials), treasuries, then MBS. Hmmmmm. I wonder what he means by High Yield (junk bonds or maybe just below investment grade)? Seems like he's at least recommending getting long TLT though and that is the opposite of my strategy now.

    Any ideas?

    have a good evening

    ReplyDelete
  4. Port- I'm not much into the conspiracy thing, as the Fed has said they are buying 2's through 7's, but I suspect they don't like to see the 10's this high as that is what mortgages rates are based on.

    I'm long 1000 shares from 35.22. I'll get "try" to get stopped out at 36.91 depending on how things shake out. GL!

    ReplyDelete
  5. Had a solid 1.33% day. Catch you cats at the open.

    ReplyDelete
  6. Great post, Mark! I edited the post to reflect the obvious influence my stock picks have had on Bill Miller.

    ReplyDelete
  7. bought some gold fut at 1384s and sold at 1386s for $220 profit.

    ReplyDelete
  8. What's the talk about interest rates going up?

    The only thing preventing the revealing of the depression is the Govt borrowing and Fed printing it for them. Otherwise everyone would see the economy for what it really is, a hollowed out shell.

    ReplyDelete
  9. I'd have made a killing if I'd held either or both.

    ShakenOutAgain should be my name its so bad...

    ReplyDelete
  10. A better descriptor might be "pathetic" instead of "bad".

    ReplyDelete
  11. 2nd- I was hoping you'd see that :)

    ReplyDelete
  12. OPEN broke it's 10. Go get-um TOF!!

    ReplyDelete
  13. Don't look now but OPEN is breaking down!

    ReplyDelete
  14. I'm glad I swapped out to the $75 Puts on OPEN so I wouldn't have to worry so much about time value decay. Did anyone see the Oppenheimer report today on the company? Apparently they think it's fairly valued based on 2015 earnings. How the eff can they estimate 2015 on anything? This company has no proprietary technology and a crapload of competition. I'm shocked it's trading at 100 times free cash flow. It should be trading in the 20's-30's.

    ReplyDelete
  15. 70 and 68 are huge numbers for OPEN.

    ReplyDelete
  16. Natty estimates of -80 to -90 bcf. 1 minute...

    ReplyDelete
  17. Added OPEN $75 Puts at $4.5 just now when the stock spiked to $71.50.

    ReplyDelete
  18. This market does NOT want to go down. We should experience what Landry refers to as the indexes 'decisively hitting new highs' soon. JMO.

    ReplyDelete
  19. 2nd! Good to hear from you again my friend. It appears to me that the market doesn't want to go down or up. Like I said before, short high fliers (not named CRM) and long banks is the best trade going forward..

    ReplyDelete
  20. jeez - there is too much strength in OPEN man. This sucks. Just when I get my hopes up.

    ReplyDelete
  21. TBT off @ 37.83 on the auction. +6.50%

    ReplyDelete