Sunday, January 2, 2011


I'll have to get a Christmas picture with his truck. I'm sure Patrica has one...


  1. re-post...

    Interesting, interesting take on Natty. Really explains MOG's take better than I can. Not to long to read or download.

    TOF- Get up to speed on this brother!

  2. Good one! He doesn't look spoiled enough to me, you need to work on that. I hope you take him and maybe his best friend to the roller rink or something like that once a week.

    Alright, so as far's nat gas is concerned, are we talking UNG, PXP, or what exactly is the best angle there?

  3. Natty- I honestly don't think we have a play right now. But I'd keep an eye on SWN. I am interested in LNG though. Big ruling expected soon on it's ability to ship to countries without trade agreements. Tough call. I also see LNG popping up as a trade on a few popular sites. Never good for longer term traders.

  4. CP- I'm guessing it's not on your charts, but I like to use the 365sma in my charts. CADC is right at it. Last average to clear that I have.

  5. Mark W.
    LNG, You actually turned me on to that stock right after the BP disaster. I had a large position right before OBAMA's speech. All he had to do was just say the word NATgas, but noooo. He was lame and I soon got stopped out. The time I owned LNG it would not trade at all based on energy prices. There was no correlation. It traded more like a high short position crap stock like Rhino or seed than a fundamentally sound company.
    My E-mail is
    Nice pic!

  6. Mark, the Natty article seems to be right along the lines of the consensus view: further price decreases in 1H2011 and then a possible recovery starting 2H2011. To make sure that I don't get killed by the Fall contango, I won't venture into UNG until November 2011. I might, however, venture into SWN in October 2011.

  7. Craig, The chart I wanted to post did not work. Your methodology is basically the same thing I do. I call a "knock out bar" A bar of strength. Instead of 7 or 8 days I use moving averages. Will not enter if trending stock is below 50 day which probably close to your. Entry, stops and scaled out exits are identical.

  8. Mark, I don't figure the 365 will represent much of a challenge, I think it's a multi-year/decade growth story worthy of plenty of body English and table pounding, just wish it had pulled back to my basis price for an add so now I'm stuck letting it run further to the end of the spool.

    I hate chasing, can't do it, would rather add to an underwater position making new lows!

  9. Mark and gang, here is a presentation by UPL, which covers a lot of data and comparisons of Nat Gas companies. You can see SWN is a solid company. The CAGR chart by Credit Suisse explains why CVX bought ATLS.

    A very nice presentation somewhat biased from UPL's point of view.

    Long UPL

  10. OK, the link does not work, try this,

    and click on recent presentations, you should get the 20 Aug presentation.

  11. Been w/out internet in my new temporary home in Portland. Catching up on a what seems to be quite a lively weekend on the board. Funny how we all seemed to follow "Shark Trading" back in the day. That's where I got my start back in '03. What a time!

    As for natgas plays, my stocks for '11 were DPTR and GMXR. I like GMXR a heck of a lot more than DPTR and see it as a multi-bagger as natgas runs in '11. As for a way to play it directly, I see little risk in holding UNG as long as contango lies dormant. Holding UNG as my core position. I probably should pick up some GMXR very soon as its starting to pick up steam on its weekly....

    And yesterday picked up another ticket to China for February so I can yet again spend days in those infamous traffic jams cited in earlier links:(

  12. For non-technical investors looking for a reason to invest in natty: Some notes from "Natural Gas Week"...

    Trend for power plants to move from coal generation to natural gas...because coal is a dollar-denominated internationally traded commodity, its rising price is due in part to the weakening US dollar. So US Federal Reserve plans to pump $600 billion into the economy, which is sure to further weaken the dollar, could help boost coal-to-gas switching well into 2011. Potentially a very positive trend for the natural gas sector: In October, coal-to-gas switching averaged just below 2 billion cubic feet per day in the US. However, seasonal winter demand and weakness in the greenback is expected to increase coal-to-gas switching to nearly 4 Bcf/d in January and February. Incremental demand for natural gas from fuel switching could have unexpected benefits to the natural gas markets, and investors in the sector, in 2011