Sunday, January 2, 2011

1/3/11 I Just Can't Help Believing/ For No More Than Just A Day




I just can't help believing
When she slips her hand in my hand
And it feels so small and helpless
As my fingers fold around it like a glove

I just can't help believing
When she's whispering her magic
And her tears are shining honey sweet with love
This time the girl is gonna stay
This time the girl is gonna stay
For more than just a day

Here's a strategy that involves buying the SPX at the close of the last trading day each month, and selling at the close of the first trading day of the succeeding month.

http://tinyurl.com/27r2p88

'..a very simplistic form of market-timing has worked for the past 11 years. It involves owning the Standard & Poor's 500 stocks, but only for the first day of every month.

'An S&P report recently found that someone who invested $10,000 in the S&P 500 on Dec. 31, 1999, and left the money there until Dec. 1, 2010, would have just $8,209. An investor who was in the market only on the first day of every month over the same time -- for example, buying at the close on Dec. 31 and selling at the close of the first trading day in January -- would have $13,816.

'That's nearly 70 percent more than buying and holding the whole time. S&P didn't include reinvesting dividends in either scenario because of the complications of figuring out which companies paid dividends on the first trading day of the month for 11 years. But even if you include all possible dividends for the buy-and-holders, the first-day trade strategy came out 33 percentage points ahead.

'The strategy appears to work because of a market quirk. Money tends to go into stocks of the first day of the month as institutional investors reopen their books for a new reporting period. It's also the day when money tends to go into 401(k) or other retirement accounts.'

"It's a quirk that works," says Howard Silverblatt, a senior index analyst at Standard & Poor's. "It's hard to argue with someone who made well over 30 percent compared to someone who's down almost 20 percent."'

139 comments:

  1. David- Yes, I agree. I feel like our hands are tied right now unless LT BIG players are willing to wait and prices don't come in enough for us. I refer to the producers of course...

    Just take a look at what happened to CHK when Icahn's stake was made public.

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  2. Mark and gang, here is a presentation by UPL, which covers a lot of data and comparisons of Nat Gas companies. You can see SWN is a solid company. The CAGR chart by Credit Suisse explains why CVX bought ATLS.

    A very nice presentation somewhat biased from UPL's point of view.

    http://www.ultrapetroleum.com/Home-3.html

    and click on recent presentations, you should get the 20 Aug presentation.

    Long UPL

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  3. That's recent presentation in the

    INVESTOR RESOURCE CENTER

    t3d

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  4. BAC....

    * Bank reviews cases of missing computers - report
    * Bank has found no evidence that WikiLeaks has a hard drive-report
    PHILADELPHIA, Jan 2 (Reuters) - A team of up to 20 Bank of America Corp officials, led by the chief risk officer, Bruce
    Thompson, have been reviewing thousands of documents amid a threat that it may be a target of WikiLeaks, The New York
    Times reported on Sunday.
    The director of WikiLeaks, Julian Assange, previously said he had intended to "take down" a major U.S. bank and reveal an
    "ecosystem of corruption" from data from an executive's computer.
    Bank of America has been reviewing cases in which any computers were lost and was looking for signs that its systems
    might have been compromised, the newspaper reported in its electronic edition.
    The bank has hired consulting firm Booz Allen Hamilton to help manage the review and has sought advice from several top
    law firms, the report said.
    Bank of America's internal review has turned up no evidence to support Assange's claim that he has a hard drive, the
    newspaper reported.
    In December, Bank of America said it would not process payments intended for WikiLeaks, which has angered U.S.
    authorities with the mass release of U.S. diplomatic cables.
    Bank of America joined a growing group of financial services companies, including MasterCard, PayPal and Visa Europe,
    that are restricting payments to the global organization which has said its next large document release will be bank
    information.
    WikiLeaks has said it will release documents early this year that will point to "unethical practices" at a major U.S. bank,
    widely thought to be Bank of America.
    Bank of America was not immediately available for comment. (Reporting by Jessica Hall; Editing by Dhara Ranasinghe) (For
    more M&A news and our DealZone blog, go to http://www.reuters.com/investing/news/mergers)

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  5. Craig, The chart I wanted to post did not work. Your methodology is basically the same thing I do. I call a "knock out bar" A bar of strength. Instead of 7 or 8 days I use moving averages. Will not enter if trending stock is below 50 day. Entry, stops and scaled out exits are similar.
    http://www.freestockcharts.com/tweets/?chart=92b4cccd-0c79-469e-8f87-4816682bd313&refURL=http://fsc.bz:81/A6l

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  6. Hussman's weekly comment is out.

    http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc110103.htm

    'The Strategic Growth Fund finished the year with a slight loss of 3.62%. The loss resulted from our defense against an overvalued, overbought, overbullish, rising-yields condition coupled with a runup in risk assets that was still uncorrected as the year came to a close. While the decline was minor from a long-term perspective, it felt excruciating in the final weeks of 2010, as stocks characterized by low-quality, low yield and high risk persistently outperformed those ranked higher in quality, yield and stability. The result was a series of small but relentless day-to-day pullbacks in the Fund, while the major indices registered a series of marginal new highs for the year.

    We enter 2011 at a point where investors have pushed risk assets to a speculative extreme, on the belief that the Fed has provided a "backstop" against losses. While there's no assurance that we won't see a further extension of this over the short-term, we've found more often than not that speculative setups in the financial markets are followed by a striking degree of subsequent resolution in the opposite direction.'

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  7. One take-away from Hussman's comments:

    'On the basis of the relative standing between indices, one would expect small cap stocks to underperform the S&P 500 by roughly 8% annually over the coming 4-year period. On this expectation, we're in pleasant company with Jeremy Grantham at GMO, who also expects large-cap, high quality to strongly outperform small-cap and low quality over the next several years.'

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  8. Perhaps another reason to like the DJIA components right now.

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  9. T3D- I just sent you an email. Hope your well.

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  10. Has anyone heard from vb lately?

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  11. 2nd- I'm more convinced that ever it's going to be the year of the "real" players. No more OPEN, etc. Real co.'s that have broad exposure to international markets that "investors" can hold for more than 5 days. AA is one of them.

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  12. We could just buy DIA. I'm wondering if DIA is one of the ETFs Fidelity offers at no commission?

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  13. Alternatively, buy the DJIA + short the small caps.

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  14. So BAC is uncertain enough to investigate, is that it? Hmm...

    Dirt Bags?

    I don't know about these banks, kinda think these fat-cat dudes are gonna be skating on thin ice for quite a while. We hear BAC say they want to raise their dividend so that might boost share price at least initially, but is it already priced in and/or are they really going to be able to pull it off considering the dead weight presented by ML and Wachovia in the first place?

    I heard a little ditty about C getting their tit caught in a ringer over in Asia recently, the same place they're placing on top of their priority list. Not exactly starting off on the right foot there...

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  15. Thanks Mark, I am. Nice pic of your son and enjoyed the inside look by your friend.

    BTW, 2nd, CNBC RT has a stock app, I have it and Fido's but have not used either very much.

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  16. T3D- I thought you'd get a kick out of that. Bottom line is MOG will be long energy until the day he dies. Can we blame him? I can't.

    All right guys. Remember, we will be trading for the entire year. Catch you at the open.

    $2 for anyone who can tell me who said..."Hell no we don't!!"...all the while crying:)

    Ciao.

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  17. Da new speaker of Da House. Cry baby Boehner.

    It's gonna be a wild year! LOL!

    NG plays: don't forget pipelines, fracking fluids, drillers, LNG co's, some utilities like Sempra.
    Aren't there a few Canadian oil trusts heavy in NG that pay those nice monthly dividends?

    Just thinking out loud for CRYING sake! LOL!

    Good luck to everyone for a prosperous new year.
    FF

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  18. Looks like smart $ sentiment suddenly has risen 9% while dumb $ has declined by 3%. Sentimentrader was calling for a "false initial move" out of the 6 tight trading sessions which would be followed the real move in the opposite direction. If smart $ is suddenly becoming more bullish, my guess is the small move down late last week (at least in techs and small caps) was the "false move" and now the real move begins....higher.

    Regarding NG, I posted my thoughts on natural gas plays at the very end of the last post well after 2nd's new post went up- forgot to refresh the browser.

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  19. For non-technical investors looking for a reason to invest in natty: Some notes from "Natural Gas Week"...

    Trend for power plants to move from coal generation to natural gas...because coal is a dollar-denominated internationally traded commodity, its rising price is due in part to the weakening US dollar. So US Federal Reserve plans to pump $600 billion into the economy, which is sure to further weaken the dollar, could help boost coal-to-gas switching well into 2011. Potentially a very positive trend for the natural gas sector: In October, coal-to-gas switching averaged just below 2 billion cubic feet per day in the US. However, seasonal winter demand and weakness in the greenback is expected to increase coal-to-gas switching to nearly 4 Bcf/d in January and February. Incremental demand for natural gas from fuel switching could have unexpected benefits to the natural gas markets, and investors in the sector, in 2011.

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  20. Barry.... is this the right spot?

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  21. CHGS - looks like people discovered that they don't have jack to do w/ rare-earths.

    Kim - welcome...liked your charts posts from the other site...good stuff

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  22. Kyle..thanks...

    For those who follow Elliot Wave counts. There is a trader name Pug who has an ego as big as [you know who] but he has been spot on in his count since April 2010. Even called the bottom at 1015 or so. Here is his latest count as of last Friday.

    "...blast-off higher to first week of the new year with a first target of 1283 for 3-iii and 1295 for iii-(5). Final target for v-(5) is 1304.."

    So far we are off and running.

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  23. CSCO off @ 20.47 (traded around the position also, opened large @ 20.38, off @ 20.47)
    RAS off @ 2.22
    INTC off @ 20.95 (minor loss)

    Up +0.26%. I know. I'll take it. Positive start to the year, right?

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  24. Craig- FTK has me thinking WTF almost every day. That has to be the ultimate real time Landry tutorial. Congrats. And congrats. And...

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  25. [Just Saying]... maybe this is the blow off top before the reversal. We are getting near the end of the 6-7 day window on this chart which if it plays out we should drop late today or tomorrow. Just something to watch.
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPASX200&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p94193502472&a=210103821

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  26. Welcome Kim...

    Busy start to the year. Damn! Looks like I sold too early again. Oh well, my big slug of SSO is softening the blow...

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  27. CSCO off @ 20.47 newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5123 comments) on Mon, 01/03/2011 - 10:03 #76998
    Wife and I were discussing the possibility of using stocks like CSCO/INTC as an alternative to parking in cash. CSCO opened Friday @ 20.17/21, closing now @ 20.47. That's +1.47% in 24 hours v probably a negative return on cash.

    An alternative to selling CSCO outright would be to raise stops. But with another gap up, I'm even less inclined to hold risk this morning.

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  28. Kim- Not sure if you looked back at any off my comments, but the first 2 days of Jan. have a win rate of 60/80%ish. I'm going to "try" and hold on into tomorrow.

    CE- Upgraded by CS to 55. Had that puppy back at 7.

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  29. AVL - Nice JBE that I missed...too busy watching VXX

    Kim- have a dumb question for you. There was an SPX Fib Lvl chart you posted last week that had the 161.8% lvl in the Fib Lines. How do you select that option in the stockcharts annotation. I can get the 0-100% normal fib lvl range???

    Thanks

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  30. Mark- Nice entry into SSO at Friday's close. I had about 15 minutes to consider OAKBX at the same point in time, and elected to stay out. The problem with mutual funds is the EOD crap-

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  31. Added STVI at $1.67 and eBay at $28.3 this morning.

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  32. INTC- Looks like Piper Jaffray agrees with all of you about the lack of exposure to mobile computing.

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  33. MarkW ... interesting stats.. Keep holding.! Doesn't look like this market is going to turn anytime soon. ;-)

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  34. PMI - Looks like a buy if I didn't know better.

    Just watching out of curiosity...

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  35. Crikes...In the 5 minutes I took to look back more into STVI the thing shoots up 15%. Now THAT'S a fast market.

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  36. kyle... not a dumb question... with Stockcharts hold down the Ctrl key when using the Fib ext tool.

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  37. kim...thanks man

    HL/SLW bounce time

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  38. Damn LNG is taking off. I missed entering that one. I think RAS will be taking off soon as well.

    If the parallel to 1998/99 holds true, as it pretty much has since August, then we have another gap higher tomorrow to 1,290ish, then we sell off quickly to 1,220-1,230ish before moving higher again.

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  39. CADC - Will this one clear $5.00 today, or will I be forced to wait longer?

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  40. Just a what if? http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=1&dy=0&id=p02390783094&a=219406350

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  41. Kim- You do beautiful chats my friend...

    These moves seem artificial to me. MM jacking up prices to sell into over the next day and a half?

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  42. Or...is it just everyone going...Buy anything that isn't up 5% already!!!!

    GL guys...At the close.

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  43. Re: CSCO off @ 20.47 newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5124 comments) on Mon, 01/03/2011 - 11:11 #77008 (in reply to #77001)
    SiO2- Good point, and if I'd thought about it, that's what I would have done. That's one advantage of trading teams- multiple skill sets and higher odds of covering every angle.

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  44. "These moves seem artificial to me."

    If I were Mr. Jack Be Nimble I might sell and wait for lower prices to return, but I'm not.

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  45. Mark- Yeah, I just can't get into buying this move.

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  46. Thanks MarkW but they haven't been making me any $$$ lately.

    I have been waiting for the 13 EMA on the VIX for the turn up.

    http://tinyurl.com/2db2wa9

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  47. I'm planning on adding a few in the money SPY puts today and tomorrow. I think we will test the 1,230 level soon.

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  48. Sold my BYD shares at $10.89 and moved more into SPF at $4.71.

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  49. Short UNG @ 6.24.

    OK, I'm stupid, and really am out of here now :)

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  50. Opening TZA/VXX @ 14.61/36.09 newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5125 comments) on Mon, 01/03/2011 - 11:26 #77009
    Betting on a ST ebb in the wave of bullish sentiment.

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  51. happy new years everyone. vb is aok (thanks for asking 2nd). Just busy with some other projects and enjoying all the POW up here. :)

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  52. Happy New Year, vb! I hear the snowpack is >200% of normal.

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  53. Added more STVI at $1.945

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  54. tof- Consider trading around your position? At one point you had a +34% gain on your initial purchase.

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  55. VXX starting to make the turn???

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  56. Opened up a short on oil

    http://tinyurl.com/22sabfb

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  57. 2nd - Social marketing is reaching bubble status and bringing a lot of attention to these smaller companies. The Goldman investment in Facebook is only adding to this. I believe the hype will last for STVI for at least a little while longer. Plus they are going to release initial numbers for the last quarter soon given they haven't given an update since November. And if they do a $10 Million rev run rate (currently at $7 Million) I see no reason why they can't get to a market cap of $100-$150 Million (10-15 times revenues) given Facebook is worth 25 times and Zynga is worth around 20 times.

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  58. Exited SMN at open w/ stop loss. Took me the better part of an hour to scale out of a small position in STVI. Not a bad one session hold. Just holding UNG and looking for a spot to short the market.

    Per Sentimentrader's twitter page:
    $SPY started a new year with >+1% gain 6 times. Here are its next 3-week returns: -1.4%, -2.0%, -2.6%, -0.1%, -10.6%, -3.1%.$$

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  59. "OK, I'm stupid"

    What's really stupid is not selling every single morning pop then buying back once the caffeine buzz subsides.

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  60. MarkW... looks like UNG still has some room to run yet. Be careful...

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=UNG&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p02163088051&a=216678155

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  61. "Social marketing" Yep, private companies like Facebook that don't face the same disclosure requirement standards that public companies do.

    vb - Are you skiing that POw?

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  62. ATNI - Maybe today we hold $39, on the way to $44. I'd like to see continued progress there.

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  63. GEDU - Running into resistance, wish I'd gotten into that one mid sevens, couldn't take on more risk though..

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  64. MCOX - Watch this one outta the corner of your eye...

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  65. Sold my shares in STVI I bought today at $2.02 and $2.04. Now have 10k shares.

    Bought 2 x Feb $134 SPY Puts at $6.97.

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  66. Solar catching bids?

    Is solar net energy positive? Seems like it takes quite a bit of energy to manufacture, wonder if/how long it takes to break even?

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  67. MCOX - "came under heavy pressure when U.S. shareholders sued the company and its underwriters for not disclosing shrinking margins in the IPO prospectus."

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  68. Yes, the skiing is great!
    http://tiny.cc/zpdqe

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  69. CCME - There's something I like about the sound of this business model.

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  70. vb - I assume that's you on snow board? Gimme downhill skis with that powder, you won't see me til dark.

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  71. Sold my small SPF position. Bought 1 more SPY $134 Feb Put at $7.04 and 1 Jan 22 $130 SPY Put at $3.09.

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  72. Interesting:
    http://cdnmo.coveritlive.com/media/image/201101/php1NxtZEchart.png

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  73. Big gap today on the monthly index charts. Last time I remember this happening while market was trending was March of '09. It trended a little more for 8 sessions or so and reversed violently. SPX above upper bollinger bands on monthly (daily as well) chart. Odd thing is that smart money % usually trends down into inflection points. As I pointed out earlier, it jumped substantially over the weekend. I'm having a problem understanding that.

    Having said all that, I picked up some ASTI 3.43 as I really like its weekly and monthly charts...especially the decreasing volume trend on the weekly which is somewhat similar to REDF's when it closed its weekly at $3. Will sell in a second if/when I feel market reversal is imminent.

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  74. Wow, what a market response to the New Year! You guys did say that a market gap up on Monday was the outcome with the most pain, and intuitively I felt that such an outcome would be most unexpected and hence most likely. But then, my mind turned on and said that the market has been bullish for sooo long -- where will the additional buyers come from on Monday? But they did appear from somewhere...

    The pleasant surprise here is that UNG is up strongly as well. The unpleasant part of it is that I already sold all my HNUZD... Well, seeing such a strong move, I decided to sell 500 shares of UNG at $6.28, and now I only have 1700 shares left. Even though I feel bad about selling HNUZD too early, but the current outcome is definitely better for my portfolio than being proven right in selling HNUZD last week and seeing UNG plunge today. :)

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  75. kim - neat chart. If I recall correctly, Jim Rogers mentioned in an interview that 2011 was a cyclical recession year, but I didn't know where he got that.

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  76. Re: Opening TZA/VXX @ 14.61/36.09>>OFF 14.74/36.25 newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5126 comments) on Mon, 01/03/2011 - 13:30 #77018 (in reply to #77009)
    A minor gain will do it. Should a sell-off materialize and accelerate, will consider jumping back on the short side.

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  77. After seeing all of this additional hype surrounding facebook and social networking, along with the upcoming profile on social networking by CNBC on Thursday, i think it's prudent to wait on selling STVI.

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  78. Long Bidu. 99.64. Day of strength or whatever Landry calls it.

    Kim, Glad your here. Welcome. I'm Bobbyo from the other site. Was there some histrory with that shmoe or did he attack you for no reason?
    Bob

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  79. RoBear... thanks for the welcome.. He came out of no where Friday at me. I tried to be careful in my responses because I got banned for no apparent reason a few weeks ago. I use to be able to post under just Kim, but for some reason someone had me banned. Friday was my first drama exchange ever there. Go figure!

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  80. A couple of other things happened for me today. First, I was stopped out of my CRM put at $14.80 (I purchased it at $15). Apparently, failed bearish patterns (break of the $132 support level on Friday) produce VERY strong bullish reversals. If CRM were at $134 now, I would jump on the long side, but at $137, I almost feel like I have missed my chance... What do you guys think?

    Then, a break of the $78.50 support level for IWM on Friday produced a very strong bullish reversal today (just like Quint Tatro mentioned in his interview), and once again, it feels almost too late to jump in on the long side. My buy limit order for 250 shares of TWM was triggered this morning at $12, increasing my total TWM position to 1250 shares.

    If the $132 support for CRM and $78.50 for IWM were formed after a few months of a downtrend, I would be much more likely to jump on the long side now. But right now, could this be just a quick shakeout of early bears before a real move down?

    Finally, TBT hit my buy stop limit order this morning at $37.60 for 4% of my port.

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  81. Apkt and its 10 % gain is irritating the heck out of me!!!! The whole cloud space is ripping the shorts a good one.
    RB

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  82. cp,

    haha not me. but,,, I am hoping to learn snowboarding this year. wish me luck!

    so far, my year has been pretty lucky!

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  83. Gap filled on USO...which way will it break now?

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=USO&p=60&yr=0&mn=2&dy=0&id=p64747441879&a=218235459

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  84. Kim- Thanks for the UNG chart. I'll be careful. I like the way the floor sold it off just now. We'll see, I'm not sticking my neck out here that's for sure.

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  85. GDX/GDXJ/SLW et al are having some trouble.

    So that is you, Kim/Kim. I thought so. I had no idea you got banned way back then. I find that really hard to believe.

    David, on the other hand, has almost been banned here many times ;)

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  86. Cu, Ag, FCX, TC, UXG New Highs... Pretty impressive start.

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  87. Crap! The coppers are onto me!

    "Flotek will not comment on unusual market activity. Flotek Industries reported that in view of the unusual market activity in the company's stock, the NYSE had contacted the company in accordance with its usual practice; the company confirmed that its policy is not to comment on unusual market activity."

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  88. Long CHGI at $1.88/1.89 just now. This is a play on graphite, which is used significantly more so in lithium ion batteries than lithium, unbeknownst to many people. And graphite has significant supply constraints.

    CHGI recently announced earnings and their revenues rose about 80% and they did $.09/share in earnings in the last quarter. They are boosting capacity to meet increased demand, which is a good sign. The stock has popped recently but why shouldn't it be trading at a good deal higher multiple than 6 times last quarter's run rate? That's my thinking at least.

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  89. ATPG...Interesting action just now. That's a big short ratio????

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  90. TOF- Man, it sure looks to me like it's caught up in the whole RE crap no?

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  91. FCX has rolled over and entered the red territory now -- looks like today's rally might have killed the remaining bears and now, with a total absence of buyers after the prolonged period of bullishness, the market is really in trouble...

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  92. ZSL may be on the runway...

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  93. Three weeks ago, when SWN dipped below $36, I sold 2 January $37 puts on it for $2.33 each. Just now, I repurchased them at $0.54 each. I figured that I have already extracted most of the benefit from this short position and that I would rather free the capital backing up these puts for new adventures.

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  94. Sold half of my STVI at $1.97 to $2.0.

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  95. S+P 20 day historical volatility hits 39 year low today...

    http://vixandmore.blogspot.com/2011/01/s-500-index-20-day-historical.html

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  96. Mark I hear you on the rare earth thing, but the valuation is way too low. It's trading at 0.90 times book value, 6 times last quarter's earnings run rate, and it has $0.45/share in cash. I figure its worth it to take a starter position in the stock.

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  97. Just to keep the record straight...TIE is an actual POS :)

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  98. TOF- OK, you obviously trust the earnings. What do you think of CDII?

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  99. I don't know Mark. CDII is losing money and not growing revenues. Why not go with a company making money, growing fast, and with a huge market opportunity at a cheap valuation?

    I was only able to get 5,450 shs in CHGI before it just exploded higher.

    I sold most of my remaining STVI just now at $1.93-95...should have followed you guys earlier but still made some nice coin.

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  100. Only imbalance I can find is...

    BUY- AA.

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  101. Added 3 x SPY Feb $134 Puts at $7.29 just now so I now have 6 of these and 1 x Jan 22 $130 Put.

    I also sold the rest of my STVI at $1.93 and added 1,000 to CHGI at $2.02. Both of these are hard to get in/out of.

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  102. Average in CHGI is now 1.904.

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  103. Mark - On CHGI you can see that they at least have a history of making money...they did well in 2 out of the last 3 years (1 bad year due to recession).

    http://financials.morningstar.com/income-statement/is.html?t=CHGI&region=USA&culture=en-US

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  104. Man you gotta be quick in these small caps and even in the market in general. I got lucky buying CHGI when I did and unlucky selling STVI where I did. Alternatively, buyers in the market today for the most part were not rewarded. I managed to pick up 3 more Feb $134 SPY Puts at $7.34 so I now have 9 total puts at $7.21 avg. After a big run, I think the best way to play the inevitable pullback is through deep in the money puts instead of playing those ridiculous ultras.

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  105. CDII - If you don't mind, where did you pick up on this one, trusted reference? CDII looks like a startup company to me, need to do some serious DD there, their press releases paint a pretty picture if you can believe the story...

    No ratings agency coverage, auditor is Sherb & Co(do these guys have a good rep?). Has CDII been diluting, why aren't they able to access cheap credit by taking on some debt or will banks not provide financing?

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  106. CDII - "31-Dec-10 09:30AM InPlay: China Direct to raise $4 million in registered direct offering at $1.80 Briefing.com -18.82%"

    When a tiny stock drops on news like this, it's gotta make you wonder... Yeah, maybe Johnny Be Quick can get a good entry and maybe if you could really drill into it a come out with really thorough DD but this one seems pretty bottom of barrel on the surface.

    Not that it couldn't perform from here but on the surface it really seems like something I'd stay away from.

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  107. +1.84% today, was over +4% at one point though...

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  108. Put call ratio closed at lowest level since April. P/C ratio of <.64 is that level I've been looking for. 10 day p/c ratio closed at .79 and looks to be rolling over. Previous instances have preceded large downturns. W/ Hindenburg omen mid-December, Hussman's historical research, and extreme bullish sentiment, I'm going to stick my neck out and say we get a wallop (10-20% to start)of a pullback w/in 1-3 weeks that reminds investors that once again, fear is an integral part of the market. Best short setup would be for the market to meander around at these levels for at least the rest of this week....

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  109. TIE - I know it's always a challenge to find something undervalued, margins aren't too impressive, do they have some sort of proprietary or intellectual assets like Brush(BW) has?

    "15-Dec-10 05:02AM Zacks Releases Four Powerful ''Buy'' Stocks: CGI Group, IDEX, Brush Engineered Materials and Genesco Zacks"

    I don't know, maybe for some of these stocks that have experienced healthy run ups since mid year, the best play is probably the one FF has been describing lately....

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  110. I looked at my list of stocks that I watch and noticed that not only did FCX close red, but it also had a nice intraday reversal. The stock is up 100% from July and at a $56 Billion market cap, it's safe to say it's not a buyout candidate. I've been watching this one for a while now and wondering when it would be a good time to short. I was waiting for a reversal day like this after a huge run and on a day when the market runs higher and it looks like this is the day. The same happened to the high fliers back on Dec 1, which was a tell to me to short them.

    As such, I decided to short 65 shares at $119.37 after hours.

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  111. Well, obviously something smacked metals a bit today, dollar up I guess but everything's following copper and that's held 80~90% by a single trader?

    Crazy stuff going on?... silver still near $31, too, nice looking channel that sooner or later will turn at least sideways, but when?

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  112. "After a big run, I think the best way to play the inevitable pullback is through deep in the money puts instead of playing those ridiculous ultras."

    That would be so, TOF, if you knew that the market will drop significantly below the current level before your OpEx (February). However, if the market stays flat or goes up for a couple more months, then put options will expire, while ultras will suffer only a minor volatility hit, which will then be promptly recovered when the pullback starts. So ultras are actually put options WITHOUT expiration, which have a GRADUAL decay that is an increasing function of the time between now and when the market crosses the current level on the way down.

    Moreover, ultras naturally encourage one to trade them, and so if the market oscillates at this level for the next few months, then I'll actually make money scaling in and scaling out of TWM, while my put options will simply expire.

    I just placed a sell limit order at $13 for the 250 shares of TWM I purchased today at $12.

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  113. GMO - "General Moly to Restart Liberty Project Evaluation and Development

    LAKEWOOD, Colo.--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- General Moly (NYSE AMEX: GMO) (TSX:GMO.to - News) announced that the Company will allocate $2.5 million in its 2011 budget to advance the Company's Liberty project, located in central Nevada.

    A pre-feasibility study released in April of 2008 indicated annual moly production of 19 million pounds and annual copper production of 18 million pounds per year, at moly cash costs of $6.15 per pound (net of copper credits) for the first five years of operations. That cost figure was based on a copper price assumption of $1.50 per pound. Based on today's copper prices of over $4 per pound, the Liberty project's cash cost could be closer to $4 per pound of salable molybdenum with copper credits over the first five years of operations."

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/General-Moly-to-Restart-bw-2649369651.html?x=0&.v=1

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  114. TTM - Looks as if some upside from here is possible?

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  115. I don't know fellas, seems like Uncle Ben has stolen all the marbles from most of the bears.

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  116. Any one have the balls to short AA here based on it's AH action/Cramer take? :)

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  117. AA short - I'd watch and see the reaction to earnings on the 10th...

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  118. Short - Why not short SHZ, they've been caught in the REE runup and don't even have any REE assets?

    I think it's headed back to $1...

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  119. Mark - I just read the article recapping Cramer's show. I like how his #3 pick is projected to return more than his #2 pick which is projected to return more than his #1 pick. I wonder if he even has an editor.

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  120. CP- CDII was just a symbol I found in a small cap Asia scan.

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  121. S&P, Q's, R2000 all gaped up and held.
    Metals and mining, aluminum, rare earths all strong.
    You have to ask...do you short stocks in strong sectors? Do you fight the trend?
    Short at your own risk! NOT ME.

    I'm up pretty good to start the year.
    I posted CAVM a while back. Entry at 38.35. Up over 5% as of today. Closed at 40.30.
    FTK started out great, finished weak. Sold some early (couldn't help it) Reloaded some at the close.
    SIRI at new highs.
    CYD up big in the AM, closed flat.
    XL up nicely.
    Moved up a few stops.

    At some point there will be a pullback with more set-ups.
    A few shorts listed, not advised at this time.
    The big blue arrow points up.

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