Tuesday, January 11, 2011
1/12/11 You Can't Always Get What You Want
But if you try sometimes
You just might find
You get what you need
The Stones 40 years later. Recall the jokes in the nineties about the band getting old(er)- no, they're just getting better.
I would agree with Dave Landry about 'semis breaking out to new highs.' Unable to find killer entries, yet sensing a killer quarter, I opted for a combination of INTC/CSCO/FSELX. Which may be what I need.
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Damn- my post printed at 444. You all know what that means in Chinese culture, right? I'm ----ed!
ReplyDeleteBesides it seems your ----ed, no.
ReplyDeleteAll right CP, but I'm going in under the cover of darkness. Say about 2am tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteGuys, this might just be it for me. In case I seemingly just disappear tomorrow, keep up the good fight. TOF still might have a shot at life. Don't let him down.
4 is pronounced 'si' in Chinese. There are four tones in the Chinese language. 'Si' prounounced with the fourth tone refers to the number 4. Pronounced with the third tone, it means 'dead.'
ReplyDeleteCADC - TSTC, Another Chinese reverse merger, was hit today with possible accusation of being a fraudulent operation. It's entirely possible this had some effect on today's downward action in CADC.
ReplyDelete2nd- OK, good to know. I'll make sure I don't start my recon tonight @ 4:44.
ReplyDeleteThe post close is worth reading. Right on, Patrick! Hehe.
ReplyDeleteI love the way Richards opens the song. Like he could do it half-asleep, in his jammies, on his way to the john.
ReplyDeleteThat's funny 2nd. Almost the exact same words!
ReplyDeleteMan, can you imagine Hussman and Kass taking a walk in Bill Miller's shoes in 2011?
ReplyDeleteTSTC - Oh boy it sounds like these guys pulled a RINO. Busted by the financial police!
ReplyDeletehttp://www.zerohedge.com/article/telestone-technologies-tstc-rino-sheeps-clothing
Kass maybe, but not Hussman. I think all of the big fund managers would do better if they just kept their mouths shut and concentrated on making money for their clients instead of trying to prove why they are right while NOT beating the indicies. Yes, I understand they have to take huge positions because of their size, but come on. There's another one who does that, but can't think of his name right now.
ReplyDeleteCut to the chase CP, I've got other things to worry about tonight. So, TSTC is a BUY? ;)
ReplyDeleteToo funny. Across all 3 accounts I lost $1 today.
ReplyDeleteTSTC - I expect more downside but final outcome is up in air as it seems some customer contacts have been verified by frantic shareholders.
ReplyDeleteEven so, there's a pretty strong case they may have to restate their finances, which will go over like a lead balloon.
I'd stay away for now, give it at least a week or two if you're looking for more than a day trade.
CP- Does any of this nonsense worry you about CADC? Even if they are clean...baby in the bath water type thing.
ReplyDeleteThat is of course, if you believe what you read on Zerohedge!
ReplyDeleteHarlan says he's not going to bed until you tell him to CP.
ReplyDeleteCADC - Baby and bathwater about sums it up for CADC, doesn't mean it can't revisit the 52 wk low, but I'm not counting on it.
ReplyDeleteI'll keep an eye out to see if I can add to CADC once the selling subsides, which could be a while depending on how convincing the argument over TSTC gets.
TSTC - Today 6.85M shares traded of the outstanding 10.56M.
Tell Harlan he's welcome to stay up as late as he wants, or until the monsters come out.
ReplyDeleteSo far, Asia's mostly green...
ReplyDeleteBedtime for Bonzo, I'm tired. g-nite!
Great, thanks CP...I'll send him over to your house tomorrow when he's fried!
ReplyDeleteThe more I think about my VXX money pump, the more I like it. So I decided to increase my buy limit orders to 200 shares at $34, $33, and $32, so as to have a bigger bang during every round trip on VXX.
ReplyDeleteDavid- You do realize the VIX has traded in the high ten's before? GL. If anyone can prime that pump it's you!!
ReplyDeleteYes, I realize that, Mark. However, at that point all stock markets of the world were assumed to be in a steady upward trajectory with nothing that could possibly deter that climb. Right now, the European mess by itself should prevent VIX dropping below 15. If we add to that the uncertainty of what will happen to the US stock market after QE2 finishes, I think 17 will be THE bottom for VIX (which would be punctured on the way down only very temporarily, for a few days at most, and I will BUY those dips).
ReplyDeleteYeah, I hear you David. Did you also believe the Q's could regain their 2007 high's already? I'm not pulling your chain. I've just given up on getting ahead of anything.
ReplyDelete4 is pronounced 'si' in Chinese. There are four tones in the Chinese language. 'Si' prounounced with the fourth tone refers to the number 4. Pronounced with the third tone, it means 'dead.'
ReplyDeleteJust scanning the blog. This stood out.
Best regards,
vb
SI in Spanish means YES! :)
ReplyDeleteHulbert: Contrarian Tailwinds For Gold newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5145 comments) on Wed, 01/12/2011 - 06:23 #77572
ReplyDeletehttp://tinyurl.com/47wlbyk
'According to contrarian analysis, major market tops are typically accompanied by excessive levels of bullishness that are stubbornly adhered to in the face of any market weakness. On neither count does the current sentiment picture qualify.
A similar pattern to what we’ve experienced over the last six weeks is the declining bullishness witnessed since mid-September, some four months ago. At the time, with gold bullion trading below $1,300 — more than $100 below its current price — the HGNSI stood at 59.2%. That’s nearly double where it stands today, despite bullion today being much higher.
In other words, in the face of a four-month net increase in gold’s price of over $100 per ounce, the average gold timer is today only slightly more than half as bullish.
This is a textbook illustration of the kind of wall of worry that bull markets like to climb.'
The Hulbert comment makes sense which to me also supports Landry's (thx Craig) method of buying dips and putting in a stop.
ReplyDeleteport
Is this run from August to now the strongest 2nd leg in a bull market run ever? I mean in August we were up what? 50% already? Now we're up about another 25% since August 31. Crazy.
ReplyDeleteLandry-
ReplyDeleteRandom Thoughts:
The market didn't set the world on fire but it did end in the plus column. This action keeps the indices at/near multi-year highs.
The sector action continues to look great. Aside from a few select weak areas, most remain in solid uptrends. Further, many that have lost steam as of late have come back strongly.
Obviously, the big blue arrow continues to point higher.
As mentioned recently , ideally, I would like to see some acceleration higher.
The good news is that the futures are super duper strong pre-market.
So, Big Dave might just get his wish.
Best of luck with your trading today!
Dave
DPTR making a move?
ReplyDeleteI'm definitely NOT moving any of my cash into longs at this point. Not after a 230 point S&P rally in 4.5 months and not after a rally straight up for 100 S&P points since 11/30. I loath chasing things and this time is no different to me.
ReplyDeleteTried to get into CADC @ 4.50. No dice.
ReplyDeleteLoath chasing things?...I see. Now that your married you have to say that.
I see it's already to late for TOF guys...I thought we had a few days. Guess I was wrong :)
tof- With stocks like INTC/CSCO, you're hardly chasing.
ReplyDeleteDPTR- Now that's an old fashioned wildcatter! I'll keep an eye on it, thanks.
ReplyDeleteWhat if I told you I foresee DJIA 12,000 before the end of January?
ReplyDeletegood one mark.
ReplyDelete2nd - CSCO looks interesting, but i still think there is a damn good reason INTC is not trading well.
by the way, one stock that looks interesting to me is ACMR, both technically and fundamentally.
"What if I told you I foresee DJIA 12,000 before the end of January? "
ReplyDeletepossibly, but that can change in a heartbeat. especially if a couple of earnings guidances are not as strong as hoped for. drawdowns are always faster than the moves up. i still think the 1998/99 parallel plays out over the short term. back then a 60 point drop in the S&Ps cleared the excessive bullishness out and then it traded sideways for a little while before going further up.
VXX - Why not just buy options, they must be fairly cheap by now?
ReplyDeleteLater guys. So far so good here...
ReplyDeleteCADC - Sold those shares bought yesterday @ $4.42
ReplyDeleteRAS looking strong yet again. I wonder what earnings are going to be in Feb.
ReplyDeleteES is now at R3 with a weak ticks according to Shadow Trader. They recommended shorting ES at this level (around 1,285 S&P).
Shadow Trader closed their ES short at the opening level because they expected the rapid rise higher to be followed with a rapid drop. This market is a beast.
ReplyDeleteRAS - Kinda looks like it's headed for $4+ again, doesn't it?
ReplyDeleteChicken - if RAS is headed to $4 I might be headed to full time self employment.
ReplyDeleteHonestly, though, I think $5 is a good target, depending on how earnings come out in Feb. If the report is good and book value continues to march higher to $10/share, I see no reason why the stock can't get to 0.50 times book value. Especially when valuations and risk appetites are expanding all across the market.
TOF - I would think RAS has to resume paying a dividend at some point, otherwise how do they distribute their income to shareholders, by buying stock?
ReplyDeleteChicken - they just announced on Monday that they are going to pay a $0.03 dividend for 2010 and will determine the payout for 2011 some time next year. Just the fact that they are ok enough to pay a dividend for 2010 is a huge sentiment booster. It means the q4 report is probably going to be good and they're confident about their prospects going forward.
ReplyDeleteCopper really roared ahead again today, leaving gold in it's dust.
ReplyDeleteI gotta wonder if I should be just cashing in everything. The market is up 3% in 2011, up 10% in the past 1.5 months, up 23% in the past 4.5 months...all without a big pullback. Shit, the 2nd largest company in the world (AAPL) is up almost 7% in 2011 alone. Those are exponential moves.
ReplyDeletePlus, I'm now up 24% already for 2011. I wonder if I'm getting greedy. RAS looks great longer term and just recently broke out so I think what I'll do is just set stops around $2.32.
I gotta stop talking to myself.
RAS - Agreed, $5 does seem reasonable. RAS is seriously under priced given the momentum for economic recovery appears to be accelerating.
ReplyDeleteI see upwards of a 60% gain potential there....
RAS - Let me know if it hits to your stop, I'd love to buy there.
ReplyDeleteCP - I only have 50% of my shares on a stop at that level. My buy in is $2.21 so that would guarantee a small gain.
ReplyDeleteVIX is at 16.28 now -- can you believe it???
ReplyDeleteMy VXX money pump moved its cylinders down today, sucked in some new VXX shares on the long side, and now stands ready to spit them out at higher prices. :)
A buy limit order for 200 shares was executed at $34 and I placed a sell limit order for these shares at $35. Then, I decided to reduce the increments of my orders to 50 cents, and so I just bought 100 more shares at $33.45 and placed a sell limit order for them at $34.50. My next buy limit orders are for 100 shares at $33, $32.50 and $32.
2nd: - I am curious about your pick of FSELX. I understand your believe that tech is at a breakout point. On the other hand we know that the market is overbought, overbullish, etc. That means the correction can occur at any time which I assume we indiscriminately sync all stocks (including tech). It is very difficult to put tight stops against mutual funds. Would it make more sense to go with technology ETF or purchasing a basket of core Tech holdings of FSELX (like MRVL, NVDA, BRCM, etc) and put tight stops on them.
ReplyDeletePAL - Back over $7, I guess the world still plans on burning gasoline.
ReplyDeleteDavid - VXX looks like a broken ETF on all time frames. Look at today. The VIX is now at an intraday high while VXX is near an intraday low.
ReplyDeleteWhat's that, the market is overbought? The hell you say, next stop 1290! All Aboard! ;)
ReplyDeleteVXX - I bet the options are really cheap on a broken ETF!
ReplyDeleteI guess the NY traders finished their pastrami sandwiches...
ReplyDeleteCP: "RAS is seriously under priced given the momentum for economic recovery appears to be accelerating."
ReplyDeleteNot sure the economic recovery is accelerating as much as the market is accelerating, but I get your point and it's a big reason why I bought the stock.
TOF: VXX is not supposed to track VIX. VIX is the spot price for volatility, while VIX tracks a weighted combination of front month and next month futures. Yesterday, VIX was tracking 25% January futures and 75% February futures. So it is entirely possible, just like during a flash crash, for VIX to spike up while VIX futures have only a minor bump if anything, if investors don't believe that the current state of panic will persist for more than a month. So only a real multi-day correction with get VXX going steadily higher.
ReplyDeleteRAS = $3!
ReplyDeleteRBY!
ReplyDeleteWent on margin this am adding RBY at low $5.40's. Lucky break, I'd say.
David - gotcha on VXX...
ReplyDeletegeez - you guys see the moves in PCX, NAK recently?
I still can't figure out what moves gold, seems to live in a neighborhood adjacent to the other metals.
ReplyDeleteAs long as a miner can make an $800-$1k/oz, it's nothing to sneeze at.
I just reviewed my previous post, and what I meant to say was that *VXX* tracks a weighted combination of front month and next month futures.
ReplyDeleteWow...look at the exponential move in ONNN. seeing lots of these as i flip through charts.
ReplyDeleteTOF -- good pick with RAS! It was indeed a coiled spring. As always, the craziest moves occur when I am most scared of the market and, correspondingly, when fewest passengers are on board.
ReplyDeletePCX - Australian flood consequences.
ReplyDeleteNot much of a reaction to the Fed today.
ReplyDeleteWho mentioned DPRT?
DPTR...
ReplyDeleteAny of you guys had Lasik surgery?
ReplyDeleteLasik? Sure!
ReplyDeletehttp://www.lasikathome.com/
CP- You have got to be kidding me!!! I can't believe that appears to be real! F... even I'm not that stupid.
ReplyDeleteYeah, the internet is a real treasure trove! I wonder if the order form even works, I see they don't accept Pay-Pal....
ReplyDeleteDollar index down 1% today. Bet it drops more overnight...
ReplyDeleteYep, I see the dollar took quite a hit today. Too bad I'm 34% in cash...
ReplyDeleteRAS - $3 Stuck!
Had to pick up the girls. Just checked the Imbalances. Yikes, I didn't even have to get through the B's...
ReplyDeleteI didn't expect VIX to break its 1-month support at 17 (outside of the winter holiday period) as soon as I bought VXX. As such, however, I decided to modify my trading plan for VXX and placed a sell limit order at $36 for all 600 shares I purchased at $35, so as to be able to reload those shares gradually on the way down once VXX drops below $35 again.
ReplyDeleteMark - Major buy imbalances?
ReplyDelete"Yikes, I didn't even have to get through the B's..."
ReplyDeleteIs this a dangling participle? Where are those Nazi police when I need them, and where's my imbalance report!!!
C - When does this one hit $10?
ReplyDeleteCSCO - Twice as good as cash today...
ReplyDelete