DavidV- With all due respect, here are the playing rules for VXX (copied verbatim from cartoonist Chuck Jones' rules [8 through 11] regarding Wile E. Coyote:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wile_E._Coyote_and_Road_Runner
8. Whenever possible, make gravity the Coyote's greatest enemy.
9. The Coyote is always more humiliated than harmed by his failures.
10. The audience's sympathy must remain with the Coyote.
11. The Coyote is not allowed to catch the road runner.
Igor- The 'buy-and-hold' is my workplace retirement account, which is limited to mutual funds that trade EOD. I celebrate every win twice as hard, since I won the round with one arm tied behind my back.
ReplyDeleteDavid- VXX pretty much has to be an intraday trade right now, IMO. Wait for a reversal to establish itself before any overnight holds.
ReplyDeleteThe last paragraph is yet another reason why I think RAS will be one of the best investments in 2011:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.cnbc.com/id/41044236
These are the kinds of headlines I haven't seen in awhile:
ReplyDelete8:24p
Bank of Korea reportedly ups key rate to 2.75%
7:39p
Australian jobless rate drops to 5.0% in December
TOF- Imbalances. Yep.
ReplyDeleteHmmm...C @ 5.11 AH.
TGB - Something going on under the hood?
ReplyDeleteMan, Obama is the absolute master at public speaking. Unreal.
ReplyDeleteWhen he's got something to talk about, he does quite well.
ReplyDeleteToo bad I missed it...
Take a look at LIWA. Posted on SOH. Beautiful pattern. I'm interested for a short trade.
ReplyDeleteI should say "short term trade"..as in long.
ReplyDeleteLIWA - Looks interesting. Metals - Silver/gold ratio is low. Maybe we're going to run into some metals volatility? I'm a little concerned with the price of gold lately, not sure if it's a warning message or if it's being abandoned for risk or what, but it seems too weak compared to copper/silver, etc.
ReplyDeleteIt could just be a costly mistake, but until gold perks up a bit I'm leaning toward a warning sign, especially if it continues falling behind.
So, my current plan is to leave core holdings in place and keep some cash ready to do heavy lifting in case metals prices inexplicably drop.
Like I said, keeping too much cash could be a mistake if gold catches a bid or if it turns out gold is being abandoned and metals continue to leave gold in the dust.
I meant gold/silver ratio is low...
ReplyDeleteRE: VXX
ReplyDelete2nd_ave, do you think we won't get a 3% pullback for the next month? If so, when do you think we'll get a pullback of 3% or more?
CP- Great job on the CADC trade BTW. You crafty bastard :)
ReplyDeleteRE: VXX
ReplyDelete"2nd_ave, do you think we won't get a 3% pullback for the next month? If so, when do you think we'll get a pullback of 3% or more?"
Boy, this is one of those loaded questions? Sort of like Clint Eastwood...
Well, do you feel lucky? I know what you're thinking, now was that five shots or six?
Well punk, do you feel lucky?
At leas the punk has a shot at guessing how many rounds were fired. 2nd? How can he know?
He has to rely on his internal odds calculator.
He has to know how much POMO is injected, if Portual goes tits up, or if some other off the wall circumstance is going to occur.
Might as well flip a coin, the odds are about the same. We've gone for a while now without a 3% correction. Does it count if we keep going up another 5-6%, then pull back 3%? What will the VXX look like after another 5% up? Will it even get back to even if we go 5% and then pull back 3?
So how many rounds was it? 5 or 6? Do ya feel lucky? ;>)
I see your point, Craig. :) Initially, I hoped that VIX will stay flat even if S&P will rise another 5%, just like VIX stayed flat as S&P rose from 1230 to 1270. But today's action proved me wrong... One day does not make a trend yet, so I still feel like a lucky punk. :)
ReplyDeleteLOL! Sometimes it's better to be lucky!
ReplyDeleteIf we can go up and still have he vxx go your way them I'm good to go!
Maybe take a look at autoparts stores and major airlines and short those and let the rest continue the uptrend? Look at the semis! Still reaching new highs.....it will stop some day, we know that much! We just don't when.
Well, 2010 totalled out at about 60% profit on all trading and ira accounts combined.
ReplyDeleteI sorta lost track of how I was doing, I guess, and didn't realize how big the gains were in some accounts. If it hadn't been for the one big losing gold buy at $1330 that stopped out for a at $1318 for a huge 1 trade $77k loss, I'd have had a great year.
PS: Tradestation is great from a trading standpoint showing me my buys, sells and p/l on each position over time on the charts, but their tax reporting is absolutely atrocious. It took me 3 hrs to guess how much money I made in that 1 account alone, for the 2000 odd trades I did with that broker last year. The profit was stellar though, at about 95% for the year. A good use for 8 screens, IMO.
ReplyDeleteDoug Kass on cnbc this morn...
ReplyDeleteCB - How is trade execution with Tradestation? I've heard mixed reoprts.
ReplyDeletethx!
Kyle- What did Kass have to say? I'm sure he hasn't changed his stance.
ReplyDelete2nd - You're right...same opinion that we're over extended. He admitted that he very much under estimated the impact QE2 would have. Expects PE contraction in 2nd qtr.
ReplyDeleteRe Jeffrey Saut/ What UP! newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5147 comments) on Thu, 01/13/2011 - 09:57 #77673
ReplyDelete'Jeffrey Saut claims he has not seen such a buying stampede for more than 40 years'
(a) Neither did Saut previously experience sell-offs like October 2008 or the Flash Crash of May 2010.
(b) The market discounts several months out.
(c) We can't predict anything- but the Market has a proven track record. Given a choice between Saut and the market, we have to go with the market.
The 2nd qtr is light years away for most of us.
ReplyDeleteok, why do you guys have to scare me out of all of my best picks? anyone see CHGI this morning?
ReplyDeleteLet me put it this way- 'Sell in May' starts in the 2nd qtr.
ReplyDelete2nd - I think it's kinda crazy not to expect a selloff until May. If the parallel to 1998/99 plays out then we see a really sharp and fast sell off to 1,220-1,230ish in about 5 days then we trade sideways for a month or two and eventually go up. I think this would make a lot of sense so that it clears out the excessive bullishness out there. Traders just don't think stocks can go down now, bears are completely disheartened...that's a dangerous mix.
ReplyDeleteRe: Jeffrey Saut/ What UP!
ReplyDeleteSubmitted by jack black (1107 comments) on Thu, 01/13/2011 - 10:22 #77675 (in reply to #77673)
"but the Market has a proven track record"
You mean like in April 2009 or October 2007? I don't know what you are talking about. Market prices are mostly based on emotions and crowd running in one direction or another. After all there are 85% dumb money and 15% smart money. You should know better.
Jeffrey Saut/whats up //2nd ave newSubmitted by tobyt (129 comments) on Thu, 01/13/2011 - 10:26 #77677
Sorry 2nd but Saut did pare back his holdings to "core only" shortly before the flash crash. Do not know about 2008 but he has a superb track record......a must read every monday. Toby
Re: Jeffrey Saut/ What UP! newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5148 comments) on Thu, 01/13/2011 - 10:28 #77678 (in reply to #77675)
Let the market tell you when the trend ends. I don't think it's over. I also think that the rally we're having is telling us (a) the '08 sell-off way overshot to the downside, and (b) in six months the US economy will be in better shape than most people think (ie, it hasn't been 'priced in' yet).
Also, while Saut hasn't seen a crash like 2008, he has been around for the the 1974/75 50% crash, the one day 1987 crash...no markets are exactly alike but when a guy like him that has been right for a long long while now with as much experience as he has, I gotta listen to him. That doesn't mean we should be all out bearish, but it does suggest we should be cautious.
ReplyDeleteTOF- It's what we do?
ReplyDeleteGun to head, we close slightly down today to about 1,283, then up to new highs tomorrow around 1,292, then gap open lower on Tuesday and go down about 1% to 1,280, then gap about 2% lower on Wednesday to about 1,260. My thinking is the market hasn't completely washed out the bears. Today and tomorrow should pretty much do the deed.
ReplyDeleteACMR > I really think it's time to buy this one.
ReplyDeleteGot to run. Stinky on LIWA @ S2 (10.02).
ReplyDeleteCADC - I've selected this one as a money pump, waiting for another add opportunity.
ReplyDelete"why do you guys have to scare me out of all of my best picks?"
ReplyDeleteWe're no longer looking after your interests, we're more concerned with the welfare of your future family. ;)
I have been busy. Yesterday I went long SWC even though I was short two days ago. I bought TWI in anticipation of a $20.00 break. ICO acted well after a bad ACI earnings announcements and I should of added to my position. Lesson stock acts well in face of bad news buy it. I bought a starter position in RLD because there was no sell off after the lock period ended. Other than RLD all other stocks were bought after large moves up because of simple chart formations without a care for overal market . I'm buying high hoping to sell higher. Thank god, Cable news has left Tucson.
ReplyDeleteBob
IPAS - TOF, why didn't you get us into this one before it took off?
ReplyDeleteAnatomy of a DL trade: Suggested VVTV. no entry/stop/pt. I came up with $6 entry, $5.30 stop, 6.70 pt for 1/2 partial profits.
ReplyDeleteSize 7500 shares over two accts. Closed last night $6.25. Right now trading at $6.96.
God bless America. Took partial at $6.80 as it ran past my PT. Holding last 1/2 up over 15%
BAM!
ReplyDeleteLove that high and tight cup pattern on the daily. Do you enter with buy stop over resistance?
I moved my stop loss up on RAS to $2.40 to keep trailing it 20% off current prices yet still keep it above my $2.21 buy-in price. I also put in a sell limit order at $4.20 for 20% of my position.
ReplyDeleteI'm very tempted to sell the entire position because I'm up about 35-40% and because I think the market is very close to a sharp selloff, which would allow me to buy the stock back lower, but if I'm wrong there is a very good chance the stock goes up to $5 and leaves me regretting selling it. This is definitely the hardest part about investing in my mind...when to sell. I like the Landry method of just keeping your loose stops in place and if you have a big gain (on a stock in a clear uptrend) then making sure that the gain is ensured but that it would take a big move to get you stopped out.
Don't look now but MUB is sell off hard...let's see if it double bottoms at high 96's. If the muni market is really as bad as Meredith Whitney says, then it seems the market is very overvalued.
ReplyDeleteBAM! I just use regular mkt orders since I'm sitting here watching several set-ups to trigger. I haven't used buy stop orders.
ReplyDeleteYou will see the same thing for another shot at CAVM.
Textbook is to buy as it clears the top of the last pullback bar (red). VVTV cleared at $6 and CAVM at $43.80. I don't know the terminology.
Landry calls is a trend knockout.
I'll tell you guys, it's crazy. I've gotten 4 calls over the last 2 days for new projects. I know I work in a wealthy area, but those spent $'s on projects trickle down everywhere.
ReplyDeleteMUB - That chart does have an ominous look to it.
ReplyDeleteYou would think that gold would be anticipating a state coffer bailout, you know those public employee pensions will be defended at any cost, especially at the detriment of the U$D.
It's coming.
CAVM is a text book BULL Flag pattern. Very nice. The pull back has to be on low volume. Enter on strength or as DL puts it past the knockout bar. Doesn't matter what it is called. It is a high probability set up. Stock needs to be in a significant up trend as indicated with a high ADX.
ReplyDeleteOh I forgot. BAM!
ReplyDeleteGuys and Gals Is that irritating yet.
Mark, awesome news. Time to raise prices :). If you need a slow electrician that takes frequent breaks during market hours let me know. I will take union scale. What is that in Cali now, $150 an hour.
RB- During the slow down here, labor rates pulled back a bit. Electricians used to go for 150/hr. Now it's 149.22....But you'd actually show up?
ReplyDeleteBAM! - Ok, works for me Emeril!
ReplyDeleteI'm feeling some negative G-forces this afternoon.
ReplyDeleteV/MA???
ReplyDeleteRBY - holding up well here... How long?
ReplyDeleteS&P, Moody's Warn on U.S. Credit Rating newSubmitted by teamonfuego (2339 comments) on Thu, 01/13/2011 - 14:46 #77721
ReplyDeleteNot that these companies matter much anymore, but figured I'd post it:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703583404576079311379009904.html?mod=rss_markets_main
LONDON—Two leading credit-rating firms have cautioned the U.S. on its rating, expressing concern over a deteriorating fiscal situation that they say needs correction.
The warnings issued Thursday echoed prior statements by the companies, however, and financial markets largely ignored them. Treasury yields, which move in the opposite direction as prices, were lower in late-morning trade and the cost of insuring U.S. debt against the risk of default, already below that of Germany, the euro-zone benchmark, barely budged.
"My traders are shrugging it off as stuff we've heard before," said Tom Di Galoma, head of interest-rate trading at Guggenheim Partners in New York.
Moody's Investors Service said in a report that the U.S. will need to reverse an upward trajectory in the debt ratios to support its triple-A rating.
"We have become increasingly clear about the fact that if there are not offsetting measures to reverse the deterioration in negative fundamentals in the U.S., the likelihood of a negative outlook over the next two years will increase," said Sarah Carlson, senior analyst at Moody's.
Standard & Poor's Corp. also didn't rule out changing the outlook for its U.S. sovereign-debt rating because of the recent deterioration of the country's fiscal situation. The U.S. has a triple-A rating with a stable outlook at both raters.
"The view of markets is that the U.S. will continue to benefit from the exorbitant privilege linked to the U.S. dollar" to fund its deficits, Carol Sirou, head of S&P France, said at a conference in Paris on Thursday. "But that may change. We can't rule out changing the outlook" on the U.S. sovereign debt rating in the future, she warned. She added the jobless nature of the U.S. recovery was one of the biggest threats to the U.S. economy. "No triple-A rating is forever," she said.
ReplyDeleteMoody's said the U.S., Germany, France and the U.K. still have debt metrics, including the debt affordability, compatible with their triple-A ratings at Moody's. But all four countries must bring the future costs arising from pension and health care subsidies under control if they "are to maintain long-term stability in their debt burden credit metrics," Moody's said in its regular triple-A Sovereign Monitor report.
rise to 17.6% by 2020, from 8.6% in the last fiscal year. "These figures are "quite high for an Aaa-rated country," Moody's said.
Debt affordability is "very important to the rating process," Ms. Carlson said. U.S. general government debt affordability, including states and municipalities, is "rising over time to a high level for an Aaa-rated country," the report said.
While China celebrates New Year, metals market takes a break?
ReplyDeleteI'm surprised the SPX isn't a lot lower looking at the stuff I follow. BORN working to keep me afloat.
ReplyDeleteJust bought 5 February 130 puts on FCX at $12.20. Let's see how that goes...
ReplyDeleteLittle short squeeze in BORN? Price spiking on volume.
ReplyDeleteBidding 5000 RAS @ 2.90 in the trading account, but I'm not alone. Pretty crowded here.
ReplyDeleteI forgot to mention that I got stopped out of my SLV short yesterday at $29, as SLV broke out above its recent resistance at $28.75. My total loss on this temporary SLV hedge was about 0.3% of my port.
ReplyDeleteThis was a part of the reason I got into FCX puts today, so as to once again have some commodity shorts so as to counter the possible decay in ECU.TO. I saw that both the copper price and FCX made what looks like a double top, and I will sell my FCX puts if it rises above this double top level.
As for the VXX money pump, it is turning fast into a VXX money sink. :) S&P is down now, and VXX is down as well! Apparently, the traders of VIX futures do not believe that the current dip will translate into anything serious by February, and so the February VIX futures are actually down now... My buy limit order at $33 did get hit for 100 shares of VXX, and I placed a sell limit order at $34 for these shares.
ReplyDeleteMan, the miners are getting killed even with the $USD down.
ReplyDeleteDavid - To me it seems like VXX will only do well if we have a really sharp sell off like we did back in May. I just don't see that happening right now. Otherwise, the ETF clearly looks broken. If you want to get bearish, unfortunately I think the only way to do it is via deep in the money puts on SPY.
ReplyDeleteThis is coming from the guy still sitting on a few SPY in the money puts that were up 33% and are now down 25% so what do I know?!
ReplyDeleteImbalances...
ReplyDeleteBUY- BAC/C/WFC/GS/JPM/AA/X
SELL- Nada.
Lower lows for SLW/GDX etc...
ReplyDeleteI'm watching copper, silver, and gold mostly, there's a lot of air that needs filling on gold's end, else metals are coming down. I guess this excludes whatever the dollar does, which meanwhile can only help compress the spring that much more.
ReplyDeleteEven oil doesn't know which end is up...
TOF- I wonder if BC took your advice to lighten up on the miners?
ReplyDeleteMark - probably not...then again he let his emotions get in the way of his trading there and it's hard to reason with a man in an emotional state.
ReplyDeleteCADC - OMG, looks like running stops again like yesterday. Good thing I've got a bid there, hope they can hit it!
ReplyDeleteHad to push RAS up to 2.92 to get filled.
ReplyDeleteWell, was able to pocket $400. I'll take it.
ReplyDeleteLater...
ReplyDeleteI still say gold moves to $1500, however, my target is more like by July 4th. It's quite possible other metals just move sideways in a range till gold catches up.
ReplyDeleteWith INTC + JPM reporting, I think we will gap higher tomorrow and hit 1,290ish. However, I think the market drops pretty hard on AAPL earnings on Tuesday. I think we could see a 8% drop in AAPL shares on Tuesday which would work out to a 2% drop in the Nasdaq.
ReplyDeleteActually, if AAPL reports after the bell on Tues then the drop would be on Wed.
ReplyDeleteI know it's crazy...but I shorted AAPL at $346.55 after hours.
ReplyDeleteINTC - Currently $21.80 after hours, that puts it back to the top of it's trading range.
ReplyDeleteZLC - Bang, ZOOM. KGJI - Nothing, nada!
CCME - Headed for $22+? Currently $20.65
ReplyDeleteCALM...Good job egg heads.
ReplyDeleteBORN finished # 3 in the NYSE top ten list. Coming off a long basing pattern, this could attract some interest.
LIWA/FSIN - Both of these are manufacturers of copper-clad aluminum and copper-clad steel wire, so it might help to compare these two.
ReplyDeleteThese are probably a decent China infrastructure/growth play.
I also found this article pertaining to copper, it's probably not new news, but it's dated 1/12/2011:
"Bloomberg - Copper `Not Supported' by China Power Grid Buying, Scotia Adviser Liu Says
By Glenys Sim -
Copper’s recent rally is “not fully supported” in the near term as demand from the power industry in China, the largest user, may fall short of expectations, said Na Liu, China strategy adviser to Scotia Capital.
China State Grid Corp., the nation’s largest operator of electricity networks, is planning an 11 percent increase in fixed-asset investment this year, the Beijing-based company said in a Jan. 10 statement. That is less than the 45 percent increase the market had been expecting, Liu said in an e-mail to Bloomberg News.
Expectations for supply to lag behind demand this year helped to drive copper to a record $9,754 a metric ton on Jan. 4. State Grid is the largest single user of copper in China, accounting for about 13 percent of total consumption, according to Beijing Capital Futures Co.’s analyst Xiao Jing."
More here:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-12/copper-not-supported-by-china-power-grid-buying-scotia-adviser-liu-says.html
CALM - Mark, this one doesn't seem to have moved much in the past few days. With all the terrible weather, grains could remain in their uptrend, keeping chicken feed prices up but if grain is topping CALM could be ready to move up?
ReplyDeleteNot that I would know much about the price of chicken feed, but I buy ~200lbs/month and my most recent purchase was ~$4+ higher than previously.
ReplyDeleteThat's an increase of about 9%
ReplyDeleteCP- Check it out at CSCO. I'm pretty sure I saw a 50,000lbs bag of Premium Chicken Feed for $6.99.
ReplyDelete9%? I guess chicken feed adds up to some serious chicken scratch.
ReplyDeleteBTW, are the chickens for the eggs or the dinner plate?
ReplyDeleteYeah, never did stop to think about how much I spend feeding ducks... Somewhere around $700-$800/yr.
ReplyDelete50,000lbs of layer feed would cost me ~$12,500, that's a lot of chicken butt! You'd have to throw in the beaks and lips free, to seal the deal.
Ducks, in this case. Ducks eat like pigs, much more than chickens do.
ReplyDeleteDuck-pets with the benefit of eggs. Most eggs get thrown away, too many. Once in a while someone wants a duck dinner so I try to off the males b/c they're just trouble makers.
I couldn't kill my little buddies myself.
CP: Whats this? Your Duckiepookie. What a let down.
ReplyDeleteI couldn't kill them either :(
ReplyDeleteTrade execution isn't that bad at TS. Seems like it doesn't automatically trade with all bidders or askers, and I am last to get a fill at a price, then it gets creamed or zooms, opposite of what I'd wish for 80% chance. Not sure all of that is a TS problem, though. Partly a size problem for me because that account is now huge.
ReplyDeleteBeen taking a trading hiatus while vacationing in Oregon. I got stopped out on VXX (a royal smackdown) yesterday. I entered more qqqq puts at the close today but I'm starting to have second thoughts as I read through the boards.
ReplyDeleteSeems like the only way we'll break the now famous "streak" is to go slightly parabolic first before a selloff. All weekly index rsi's are at levels attained just prior to large selloffs in the past.
Some observations giving me second thoughts about holding puts- FXI looks like it wants to head back to 48 while it forms the right side of a cup. INTC has clear sailing to 23, and "trading vehicles" are literally rocketing when they hit their 10wma. Going through all my charts, I've never seen anything like it. Then, we have continued pomo and a short trading week next week w/ opex which should limit any downside.
Lastly, AAPL earnings. The estimates for Q1 are ridiculously low. They should blow Q1 estimates out of the park. I think the street is playing games not significantly raising Q1 estimates to reflect VZ news, ipad 2.0 etc. If I had to guess, I would say the stock spikes after earnings, trades sideways for 3 days or so then plummets as there is will be little to look forward to for quite some time.
Back to the market holiday for me....
CB/JB- It depends on the ECN your trades are placed. You can specify which one you want, but that can be dicey. Fills aren't bad until it runs through your price. I have my system set up for all of my to go through ARCA. This can be scary, like during the flash crash. Schwab's is set up to book all trades through UBSS @ NYSE. FWIW.
ReplyDeleteFound an interesting article on VIX.The Author writes almost daily on VIX and has good insight on market.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.investorplace.com/27936/vix-volatility-still-on-hold/?cp=stocktwits&cc=synd
Honestly, the weakness in the major miners has me concerned. OK, I'll be a dick head here..So does BC's recent bullish stance. I wasn't around when some of you guys followed his calls. For me, all I've seen is the worst track record ever. I don't like being on the same side of the trade. Sorry, but that's how I see it.
ReplyDeleteJesse- You move around a lot!!
Back off RB!!! The "major miners" comment was intentional. I know what your were thinking ;)
ReplyDeleteI'm sticking to my theory that tomorrow is the squeeze that kills the bears, then we open up lower on Tuesday and then gap lower on Wednesday on Apple earnings that don't meet heightened expectations perhaps because of weaker margins. Also, the stock is up 7% in 2011 alone (not to mention 37% in the past 6 months and 63% in the past year) and it's due for a sharp correction. I think it corrects down to $320, which would put a major hurting on the markets and QQQQ if only in the short term.
ReplyDeleteBy the way, I'm not saying AAPL will miss earnings, just that people have gotten accustomed to a huge beat...they will beat, but if it's only by 0.10 or 0.15 and margins are weaker, the stock could be in for big drop. It makes up 20% of the nasdaq. I don't think people have factored in a possible 10% selloff in the stock, which would crush the market. I have a little on for this possibility.
ReplyDeleteMajor Minors? I think I have a few of those in my class.
ReplyDeleteBill has been right a few times, but I don't see how you could trade his calls. I know the feeling though. A couple years ago when I use to watch Crammer I would sell a stock if he mentioned it in his program. A painfully learned superstition.
Bob
Also on Bill. I know he bought a sit load of SLW in the $3.00 range that I'm sure he still owns. Now if we all did that we be worried about a little correction?
ReplyDeleteBob