Larry Dignan Summarizes INTC Conference Call newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5152 comments) on Fri, 01/14/2011 - 08:20 #77766
http://tinyurl.com/4e6nz4r
'Intel’s fourth quarter results and outlook were upbeat, but the future can be boiled down to three words: Datacenter, tablets and netbook reinvention.
'What strikes you about Intel’s quarter—beyond the optimism of CEO Paul Otellini and how 2011 is the year “everything gets better—is that there are two sure-things (data center and PC cycles) and a big wild card in tablets. If Intel’s Atom-based tablet strategy works—and we’ll know next year—the chip giant is in for one helluva 2011.'
Landry-
ReplyDeleteRandom Thoughts:
It was a mixed day. The indices ended flat. Some sectors rallied, some ended lower.
Boring huh?
Silver and Gold got whacked pretty hard. Those areas are looking a little questionable. A few other areas such as Selected Retail are also looking questionable.
Overall though, most sectors, like the market itself, remain in solid uptrends.
So, hopefully this is just the pause that refreshes.
Continue to focus on the long side but take profits/trail stops as offered and of course, wait for entries on new positions---especially since the futures are weak to soft pre-market.
Running stops on INTC?
ReplyDeleteWhat up with SLW? May be nearing a buy point.
ReplyDeletesold my puts. Don't want to be too bearish when INTC opens down.
ReplyDeleteZZZZZZ.....
ReplyDeleteNutten interesting I can find. GDX/GDXJ better get up of the floor soon.
GDX just lost S1..S2 is 54.15.
ReplyDeleteGL players...Mighty quiet at the tables here.
ReplyDeleteMetals remain under pressure I see, gonna wait a while and see where this goes and try to catch a low if possible. Meanwhile, I'll note my observation of how metals direction always seem to lead equities.
ReplyDeleteRB - There still are a few chickens roosting around here, they keep the ducks in line.
My AAPL Preview:
ReplyDeleteCurrent consensus is $5.36. Next Q est. $4.42. Analysts haven't upped their estimates yet for next Q to reflect VZ deal or new ipad (depends on release date).
Here is Citi's updated estimate commentary released yesterday- http://hedgeanalyst.com/2011/01/pearls-of-wisdom-from-ubs-and-citibank-on-apple/
"We expect gross margin to be 60 basis points above our previous estimate and 150 bp above guidance.....due to the dramatic decline in component prices....we consider this revised estimate conservative."
So, AAPL knocks the cover off the ball w/ $6.40 eps, over $1 above estimates, raises guidance ABOVE analysts estimates (which rarely happens w/ AAPL's lowballs), the stock heads slightly higher or treads water at current levels.
Then the next week, it starts to plummet...unexpectedly and without reason, catching everybody off guard. Here's a great chart analysis why this could happen.
http://chart.ly/aib4w8f
http://chart.ly/aib4w8f
Jesse, They will never Guide above estimates. They know how to do earnings reports.
ReplyDeleteBob
jessie - There are two things that repeatedly happen to me when I read such bearish comments:
ReplyDelete1) I set my bids too low and miss the trade.
2) I sell just prior to the next leg up.
Well, Copper rose back to $4.40, maybe metals aren't about to collapse after all?
ReplyDeletePutting it in bird terms, wouldn't that be a hoot!
MUB new lows for the year.
ReplyDeleteIf we close at 1,292 to 1,296 this plays exactly into what I was thinking 2 days ago:
ReplyDeleteClose at 1,283
Open lower and then close at 1,292ish to finally crush the bears
Long weekend
Close 1% lower on Tuesday
Apple earnings disappoint (not miss, just disappoint) and market falls 2%.
PMI - Keeps moving up.
ReplyDeleteWe're about to hit 1290, why is everyone so damn bearish?
http://www.benzinga.com/markets/bonds/11/01/780848/jamie-dimon-more-municipal-bankruptcies-jpm-mub
ReplyDelete"We're about to hit 1290, why is everyone so damn bearish?"
ReplyDeleteChicken - not sure I agree...have you read an analyst with a forecast for a downturn in 2011? I haven't.
Sheesh, even BAC is back over $15...
ReplyDeleteTOF - An analyst is like a broken clock.
ReplyDeleteSOXL semi etf has now TRIPLED since the lows.
ReplyDeleteINTC knocked cover off the ball and is up only 15% from the lows.
I don't follow semis anymore and this is just speculation on my part, but back in the day, everybody (myself included) was willing to pay big money for the most recent pentium. You go from 200mhz to 300mhz and your computer speed jumped by a whopping 50%. Intel was the leader in producing next-gen chips.
Today, each subsequent generation is perhaps 5% faster (say 3.0 to 3.2 ghz). For my tablet or cellphone, a 1 or 2 ghz chip from any semi manufacturer is lightening fast and dirt cheap. It seems to me that chips will be more and more a commodity as time goes on which would have to drop Intel's 67% margins dramatically.
INTC seems dirt cheap by every metric w/ earnings and guidance near perfection. Has the street been looking far into the future seeing this as an eventual commodity play?
Back to semis- SOX seems like its maxed out to the upside and SMH looks like its just getting started off its strong base. Hmmm.....
MUB is now officially crashing.
ReplyDeleteAMAT - Nice move there...
ReplyDeleteINTC - I suppose they're counting on emerging markets to pull them through. Converting silicon into money is almost as good as converting paper into money?
ReplyDeleteI would like to see them develop some new products though, or a new game changing generation of technology, b/c traditional silicon processes are very near the limit of physical constraint.
They can make up some of it by moving to larger substrates to capitalize on economies of scale, and multi-chambered machines to eliminate handling between steps, but even there, there are limits. The only way to make a faster device is by shrinking it and from what I know, it's impossible to print a line less than an atom wide.
MUB? Hell, it's still nearly $100! I wouldn't touch it until it was under $3.
ReplyDelete1290 - Ding, ding, ding!
ReplyDeleteAdded 25 shares short AAPL at $347.5..now have 75 shares short at $346.9 avg. Will add another 25 shares at $350.
ReplyDeleteSeriously though, wouldn't the threat of municipal bk be an effective means of keeping the dollar from rising? Not that the dollar wouldn't rise initially (b/c initial moves are always contrary), but I wouldn't think it would be positive for the dollar.
ReplyDeleteGuys- 90% of the stuff on my "momo list" is down. Some substantially. This is on an up day for all indices (perhaps a trend day in the making). Back in the day when I traded momo stocks exclusively, My whole port would get literally creamed a few sessions before the entire market dumped.
ReplyDeleteades,stvi, eee, gmo, wlt, ppo, shz, nflx, rloc, webm, tzoo, gmo, pcln, sbay, vlnc, wlt, mako, avl, urz, nxpi, urre, artw, cien, logm, dhx, arb, ffiv
Going along with mainstream application of logic, here's an excellent reason to sell off!
ReplyDelete"Industrial production rises by most in 5 months- AP
Industrial production rose in December by the largest amount in five months, providing the economy with solid momentum heading into the new year."
Man, CPE is still flying.
ReplyDelete"90% of the stuff on my "momo list" is down."
ReplyDeleteCase in point, doesn't it seem odd? I wish I'd had a nickle for every time I heard that one in the last two years!
Could be nervousness over approaching 1290?
Jesse- Same thing I'm seeing on my watch list.
ReplyDeleteLuckily NOT on my position page.
ReplyDelete$8.22 for REDF today.
ReplyDeleteMan, what a luck I have with my VXX money sink! VIX was nice and flat for a month at $17.50, and the day I buy VXX, VIX goes through the floor and falls below a 3-year low today. Maybe I wasn't meant to buy that nice little house in Campbell, maybe that's how the fate is trying to keep me away from the troubles of homeownership...
ReplyDeleteI don't know about you guys, but I'm trading a global economic recovery over here.
ReplyDeleteI just noticed that instead of continuing down to form a clear double top, the copper price rallied back to the all-time high at $4.40. As such, I just sold at $13.50 the 5 FCX January $130 puts I purchased yesterday at $12.20, and also one left over FCX February $129 put at $12.50 that I purchased at $12.35 when FCX first rose to $120. This, I think, is the first time EVER I made money shorting FCX...
ReplyDeleteDavid - Let me know if you ever do manage to generate an reliable algorithm for picking a bottom!
ReplyDeleteAnd yes, I too am observing the point jessee's making, not trying to claim otherwise. I'm more of the impression someone's trying to shake me out of my positions.
The curious thing is that S&P March futures are DOWN right now, despite the spot price being up strongly. That's the first time ever I see such a discrepancy...
ReplyDeletehttp://quotes.ino.com/chart/index.html?s=CME_SP.H11.E&t=l&a=2&w=5&v=s
David- Just buy the damn house!!...When can I come for a sleep over? :)
ReplyDeleteSLW bounced off the 100sma today. Let's see if it can hold. I expect so.
ReplyDeleteSLW - That's a low price! What's wrong?
ReplyDeleteI'm seriously considering selling my RAS or at least parts of it...but then again it just paid a dividend, which is a sign of a huge turnaround in my mind, and it hasn't really had a huge thrust upward. I'm just worried about this market. it's way overbought in my opinion, and susceptible to a 5% dump like that.
ReplyDeleteLong TEX at $31.60.
ReplyDeleteHere is what I'm seeing-
ReplyDeleteSPX monthly upper bollinger band stands at 1280. The last time it closed a month a few points above it was 2007. Prior to that, it last closed a month above its bb was 1997. Both were followed by selloff. Usually is rejected during month and closes below.
Wislshire weekly rsi- 75, which is highest as far as my charts go back (5 years)
SOX daily RSI 87- never seen rsi so high for etf. Its weekly is 76.
RUT weekly rsi 74
QQQQ/naz weekly rsi 75
VIX weekly lower bollinger band is 15 daily is
CPC stands at .62 which would be lowest close since April.
Hindenberg Omen valid for 2 more weeks.
Momo stocks selling off (REDF and couple others exceptions)
Not trying to scare Chickenpookie out of his positions, but just saying that I'm licking my chops over here.
If only we could trend into the close w/ VIX close to 15 and put/call around .60......
I was looking for short setups in commodities, but too afraid tohold over long weekend. Even thought about VXX. They can wait until tuesday. Novagold had no shares available to short. First time I have been rejected of a short at IB. Might be a crowded trade.
ReplyDeleteRB
Maybe I should proofread my posts for grammar mistakes. I was trying to quickly throw a bunch of notes together as I'm looking through tons of charts...
ReplyDeletebrutal day, got creamed on my EUR short and TRE is tanking, AEE has been slow death.
ReplyDeleteso glad that my boss and I WEREN'T on the org charts yesterday during the all hands webinar. I certainly ready for full time trading - NOT.
hope everyone's doing great!
Short more AAPL at $347.65. Short now 90 shares. Avg is around $347 even.
ReplyDeleteI'll bet this action in gold and silver is like having a wooden stake through the heart for a PM bull.
ReplyDeleteIm still seeing a bullish market overall. Commodities are weak, but some stocks look good. Bidu, SNDK, Some finnis, some financials ect. MOMO stocks are way over extended a 5% pullback to the 20 day would be much appreciated.
ReplyDeleteRB
PS Since I say This the market must be doomed.
"Not trying to scare Chickenpookie out of his positions, but just saying that I'm licking my chops over here."
ReplyDeleteYou're not scaring me, but I'm keeping my powder dryer than normal(usually a mistake) in case you're correct.
I'm hearing some accounts about JPM having won some grandfathered reprieve on commodities position limits or some such horror, so disgust there might be causing PM weakness.
At this juncture, I kinda hope you're right, a breather for metals prices might be helpful.
I just wish this day would end.
ReplyDelete24mins and the day is essentially over bro, you can make it!
ReplyDeleteI suspect a sharp decline in PM's on Tue. morning that will be bought.
ReplyDeleteJB- Yeah, this is just so Fing boring.
At least the imbalances will pop up soon...
ReplyDeleteWhat do you do with the imbalances. Is this some ARB play.
ReplyDeleteRB
FSELX off the table at the close/ Holding INTC+CSCO newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5153 comments) on Fri, 01/14/2011 - 15:47 #77810
ReplyDeletePosition in FSELX was opened at Tuesday's close in the buy-and-hold half. However, with:
(a) SOX up +2.3% today, making it 9 gains in ten sessions. Now at a 3-year high.
(b) Top holdings MRVL + AMAT + MU + BRCM up big in the last three sessions.
(c) Sentiment in semis has to be (ST) sky high.
I feel it's prudent to take it off the table into today's close.
Will continue to hold INTC/CSCO as proxies for cash.
RB- It could be an ARB play, but I don't really do that. I just like to see how things might go into the close.
ReplyDeleteImbalances...A handful of buys in the financials.
UB called just a bit ago, from his first class seat, he's doing the NY game, should be a fun one to watch.
ReplyDeleteSLW- Maybe next week. If it opens with a 28-29 handle, absolutely.
ReplyDeleteThey're really selling off JPM into the close, which is kind of surprising. Looks like I somehow nailed the close on yesterday and today (if we close here at 1,292). I think today could be the nail in the coffin for bears in the short term, which is actually good for a selloff, which I think finally commences next week as a result of Apple's earnings. I think we could see a 3-5% pullback next week.
ReplyDeletetof- We get the -5% sell-off AFTER we breach SPX 1300. JMO.
ReplyDeleteLIWA - Bloomberg 1/13/2011 Texas Short Seller Fights China Fraud in $20 Billion U.S. Shares
ReplyDelete"A Detroit forensic accountant, Steven R. Chapski, posted an analysis on Seeking Alpha of the 2009 SAIC and SEC filings for cable- and wire-maker Lihua International Inc. Lihua responded by posting its 2009 SAIC filings and a reconciliation with SEC filings on its website. Lihua gained 7.6 percent last year. Chapski continues to question the company. “It just doesn’t add up, and I’ve never heard anybody tell me a good reason why my thinking is wrong,” Chapski says. "
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-13/texas-short-seller-fights-china-fraud-in-20-billion-u-s-shares.html?cmpid=yhoo
Picked up March 60 qqqq puts at close.We got the trend close at hod that I was looking for.
ReplyDeletePut call closed at off the charts .58. Only 2 others that low in past 2 years were .56 and .58 just prior to 10 and 20% corrections.
Most momentum stocks took a beating with market up nicely.
Vix closed at 15.40 at daily and weekly (15) lower bollinger bands.
SOX 14 day rsi at unheard of 87.14
20 day put call ratio at .75 which is as low as I've ever seen.
AAPL closed at high of day around 348.40 w/ most of the margin expansion hopefully priced in prior to earnings.
Cara SPX target of 1292 hit.
S+P 13 points above monthly bollinger band. You have to go back to 1995 to see monthly closes above the band.
Is it 1995 all over again. Could be. If it is, the market will be up 50%+ this year. I'm betting that there's still news out there that will blindside the market.
LIWA - Steven Chapski's latest article on his concerns pertaining to Lihua:
ReplyDeletehttp://seekingalpha.com/article/242255-lihua-financial-reports-raise-questions
NANO - on the move...
ReplyDeletehttp://interactivebrokers.com/en/p.php?f=daily_analysis
Bottom of Page
Roku - Does anyone know what a Roku machine/player is? I guess they're used to stream video over the internet.
ReplyDeleteTRID apparently makes the chips for this application.
SBAY - Looks like it's running out of gas.
ReplyDeletePerhaps municipal bonds will take center stage going forward w/ the Vix at 15 and change.
ReplyDelete3 years ago this weekend- Per Weyland Capital Management:
"we decided to reduce our overall weighting in equities on January 17th
and 18th. As you may recall, on the following Monday (Martin Luther King Holiday), and the
following Tuesday morning, global markets sold off aggressively. How aggressively? In just a
little over 24 hours the FTSE (London’s S&P 500 equivalent) was down nearly 10%."
But with pomo, of course, we gap higher on Tuesday....
This price action in the market is really kind of disturbing if you think about it. We've never seen a rally straight up like this before. I read that we haven't had more than a 0.3% pullback since November. How crazy is that? Go to Google Finance and look at the 5 year chart of the Nasdaq. The run from August is basically a parabolic move higher.
ReplyDeleteBALT - Sitting on lower trend line.
ReplyDelete