Friday, January 14, 2011
1/15/11 SOX Rocks/ Days Like This
When you don't need to worry there'll be days like this
When no one's in a hurry there'll be days like this
When you don't get betrayed by that old Judas kiss
Oh my mama told me there'll be days like this
Do holders get betrayed next week? Risk and sentiment are high. However- I think we see SPX 1300+
(an accelerated wave of buying to June '08 levels, even) before the Judas kiss.
+2.3% since Tuesday night. Had I sold INTC pre-market @ 21.95 (thought about it), it would be +3.2%- but (a) I was a pig, and (b) I was a pig.
Screw it. It was a decent week. Hope to see more days like this.
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TOF-
ReplyDeleteNice calls this week. I think you may have also called a 1292ish close. Google finance charts don't do much for me. Check out AAPL on bigcharts.com and hit "all data". I've never seen a rubber band pulled so tight. I'm not sure exactly when, but AAPL is going to snap back so hard and fast that the market won't know what hit it. I see long term support at $200 and a lower trendline at $125ish.
Good chance Landry has it nailed as 'the pause that refreshes.' It could be one hell of a rally to 1320. J6P gets sucked in. THEN we go down- but only enough to shake out weak hands.
ReplyDeleteRe: SOX Rocks/ Days Like This
ReplyDeleteSubmitted by Pillzilla (441 comments) on Fri, 01/14/2011 - 19:34 #77827 (in reply to #77825)
We had similar thoughts 2nd. I took my INTC off post market yesterday at 21.72. Sold a big chunk of OAKBX today at close and even hedged my remaining 50% equity position with some SDS (probably to much in hindsight) at the close.
Bought BRK\B on the breakout yesterday 80.42 and I am pleased with its behavior thus far.
Looking to add to my UXG and RBY early next week hopefully.
Have a great weekend.
Re: Positively VXX
Submitted by 2nd_ave (5155 comments) on Fri, 01/14/2011 - 19:51 #77829 (in reply to #77827)
Pz- I notice we share the same feelings about a certain VIXen as well-
http://tinyurl.com/4tq9kmz
I must be getting old. Haven't had a drink since last Saturday, and no interest in getting up to pour one.
ReplyDeleteDavid- You need to take VXX out back and waste it close range with a shotgun.
ReplyDeleteLove that song.
ReplyDeleteReferring to Van Morrison or Johnny Rivers?
ReplyDeleteMorrison. His voice is amazing.
ReplyDeleteJesse - I got lucky in nailing those calls on the S&P the last two days...too bad I haven't made a trade in over a week. Just sitting and watching for the most part. For some idiotic reason I didn't part with my SPY puts this whole time...I think I'm just using them as portfolio insurance at this point because I have a very large position in RAS.
ReplyDeleteI might be parting ways with my stocks though. Just talked to my woman and we agreed that I need to just quit my job and give it a go on the full time self employed thing. There are a couple of contingencies, though...first being that I need to sell my business to raise money. I think now might be the best time to do it. Our revenues grew 100% in 2010 over 2009 and hit an all time high. We're an internet only business which should increase the sales price a little bit...maybe not to Groupon levels but still not too shabby.
TOF- I know you've said you don't like the accounting job before. Is that what you want to quit? And if you sell the business, what sort of "self employment thing" do you want to do?
ReplyDeleteEmployment...If my trading accts keep this up I will keep doing it. Pretty steadily making one to several K per day. I know at some point my stops will get hit, but by then the indices and MA's will be sending short messages and the service will be going short for the slide. That may be FASTER $$$ than long trading.
ReplyDeleteTook on a full load in several accts of MHR @$7.50. PT was $7.97 and it amazingly hit $8 today. I booked a few K on 1/2 and let the remainder run.
The more 'sky is falling' that happens the higher we go. Reloaded some HDY and FTK today.
Not over done, but enough to make a difference if Henny Penny continues to stand under the oak tree. Should have added some more VVTV.
Mark - yeah the tax accounting job blows man. and it's busy season so it doubly blows. I have a lot of experience starting up a web business and getting it to $100k or so in sales pretty quickly (which would mean about $15-$20k in profit) so I think I could do a few of them right off the bat in related industries to what I'm currently in and then branch out, hire someone to run them and then either pursue a few ideas for startups that I have or buy a business. If we cashed everything in right now and paid off the wedding debt we would have about $190-200k. I feel like I need more than that but we were thinking of setting aside $40k, seeing how the business start ups get going, then re-assessing in 12 months. If it wasn't working as planned then we could use the savings to buy a business or I would get a real job again.
ReplyDeleteTOF- It was a pretty big step for me to start my own business. That was about 8 years ago. In construction, the only person who really makes (or losses) any real $'s is the owner. After working for 15 years I was at the top of my financial growth curve. So, I took the plunge. Had about 70K to fund the business which was a little tight at first, but I got lucky. My first job out of the gate was a 2.2M house. I honestly thought I would be building fences and doing bathroom remodels.
ReplyDeleteAnyway, go for it man! Don't forget though, if there is any human contact in what you wind up doing you will STILL have bosses (clients).
On the plus side, I can keep an eye on the market and more or less self schedule my time. My net worth is 10X higher than it was 8 years ago. If I can keep up this pace, which I doubt, I'll be able to retire in another 8 years.
FF- Are the adds you made following Landry's system? I've really only heard about taking partial profits and moving up stops.
ReplyDeleteMark - Congrats man. Sounds like things are going well for you. Did you start your biz before you had kids? What was your fall back plan? The issue we have is my girl has big time student loans to pay off so we need to be somewhat cautious.
ReplyDeleteI know all about customers being bosses. I've been doing the furniture biz for 10 years now on the side. We're actually up to about $500k in sales now so one option we might go with is just cashing in my 401k and using that to fund my start ups.
"David- You need to take VXX out back and waste it close range with a shotgun."
ReplyDeleteThat's the feeling I have, 2nd_ave. To be fair, though, last time I had such a feeling and was receiving similar advices (it was about UNG), it was around THE low for it (I think about $5.30), and after having made several large purchases at that level, I was able to sell them into the ensuing rally between $6 and $6.30 and walk away only with a minor overall loss on the whole UNG business despite the fact that I started scaling in (using small positions) at about $8.50.
Fall back was simple. Return to doing what I did before. I know this sounds cocky, but there are very few people with my background that do what I do.
ReplyDeleteYeah, we only had Kendra at the time. 1 year old. It really was make or break time. I was making about $35/hr with fairly good bennies at the time, but I really wasn't going anywhere. Think about it. I had been able to save 80K in 15 years. We really were living pay check to pay check. Your WAY ahead of me at your age. I'll be 48 in a few days...I know, hard to believe, I still look 35. :)
Your damn smart my friend. That's obvious. Don't short change yourself or your trading ability.
Oh, so the flooding in Australia has wiped out a good percentage of the wheat crop.
ReplyDeleteThat's not going to help food prices much, sure pours when it rains. I bet some African nation is on the verge of overthrowing their government and rioting over high food prices right about now.
Odd thing is, what ever happened to the CFTC's commodities position limit plan and who really holds that 80~90% of LME copper?
You guys watching CNBC never hear about this stuff?
ReplyDelete"WRAPUP 1-JPMorgan cuts silver short; denies 90 pct copper data
JPMorgan paring large silver short position-FT * Says does not hold 90 pct of LME copper stock warrants * In spotlight as U.S. moves ahead on tougher regulations (Add details, exchange-set limits) By Frank Tang NEW YORK, Dec 14 (Reuters)...
Related Topics
* Stocks »
* Regulatory News »
* Global Markets »
* Funds News »
* ETFs News »
Stocks
JPMORGAN CHASE & CO.
JPM.N
$44.91
+0.46+1.03%
12:00am EST
THE GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP, INC.
GS.N
$175.00
+3.43+2.00%
12:00am EST
MORGAN STANLEY
MS.N
$28.98
+0.68+2.40%
12:00am EST
Tue Dec 14, 2010 11:22am EST
* JPMorgan paring large silver short position-FT
* Says does not hold 90 pct of LME copper stock warrants
* In spotlight as U.S. moves ahead on tougher regulations
(Add details, exchange-set limits)
By Frank Tang
NEW YORK, Dec 14 (Reuters) - JPMorgan's (JPM.N) commodity
business was uncomfortably in the spotlight on both sides of
the Atlantic on Tuesday amid reports it had amassed a large
copper long position and was unwinding a big silver short.
While analysts and traders have said both positions could
be tied to the bank's large customer trading business rather
than any proprietary strategy, the reports have placed the bank
in the public eye at a time when U.S. and European regulators
are cracking down on commodity market concentration."
More here:
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUS1437388920101214
Fire storms in Russia, flooding in Australia, sounds like a well planed CIA op to me :)
ReplyDeleteCP- I'm sure JPM's commodity positions are well covered @ CC.
ReplyDeleteI'm looking for more funny pictures of Harlan to post ;)
CC? You must be joking. Those guys concentrate on the 10 minute move, best I can tell. Barely enough time to, well, you know what I mean.
ReplyDeleteI'd much rather talk about Harlan's adventures...
VXX- I've seen quite a bit of VXX bashing both here and in articles posted all over the internet over the past 2 weeks. God knows I lost my ass w/ VXX earlier this week. All of the articles as well as everybody on the message boards are coming up w/ hedging schemes for the "perfect short" since VXX will "go to zero eventually".
ReplyDeleteI probably won't be buying any more VXX any time soon. However, I do know that it will go to at least $50 on its next leg up (although it may go to $25 first).
Here you go CP...
ReplyDeletehttp://www.screencast.com/t/jv8hsKVq
Were partying here. Neil's team just beat their arch rival Big shot Catholic school 1 nil. Which was amazing because I guess if your catholic it is impossible to commit a foul :). Anyway the top players on that team and the top players on Neil's team all play together on the highfalutin club team. This should give us the number one seed in the state tournament and better yet bragging rights when club starts up again.
ReplyDeleteIll buy the next round,
Bob
Double Stoli with a splash please!!
ReplyDeleteWay to go Neil! Maybe I should fly Kendra out there to give him some skill lessons ;)
Photo's please!
Also, last massacre comment. They had a ceremony before the game showing unity and each team played without one player for five minutes because the Judge that was killed went to the Catholic high School and Gabby Giffords and her aid that was killed went to Neil's. It was touching for those five minutes. Then it was beat the crap out of those bastards afterwords. Its great to be an American.
ReplyDeleteRB
Good going! Catholics must abstain from eating meat on Fridays, fish isn't foul, either.
ReplyDeleteKinda reminds me of why fire trucks are painted red.
Harlan - That smile for the camera cracks me up, just like the one I had at that age!
ReplyDeleteTOF - I searched around a bit to see if I could locate an answer to your earlier question, here's what I found:
ReplyDelete"S&P 500 Is Poised to Drop; RBC, JPMorgan Differ on the Timing for Decline"
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-14/s-p-500-is-poised-to-drop-rbc-jpmorgan-differ-on-the-timing.html
I am revising my strategy with the VXX "money sink." Instead of placing buy limit orders for 100 shares at 50 cent increments, I decided right now to place a buy limit order for 200 shares at $30, since it seems that every time I wake up I see VXX down about $1.5. So why buy it early on during the daily decline, when I can buy it being down more than $1 by the time I wake up?
ReplyDeleteOverall, I should say that I feel I have improved my money management skills, as I figured out a strategy of betting on market reversals without requiring me to go into the margin! :) During my first few years of the market I would take positions that were way too large and would get into the margin heavily when the market pendulum would swing to an extreme. But not now! So I *WILL* catch the bottom of VXX, and hopefully I'll be able to take a large position right at the bottom...
Mark: Yes, using Landry system. Remember, each time you take 1/2 profits you free up capital and even with all the possibilities, I have yet to be 100% invested. At one point I think I was about 66% in. Then I'd have a big run up to a price target and take 1/2 off, move stops and let the remainder run, which freed up more cash for another set-up. Each night is a list including some picks that haven't triggered yet or perhaps won't, and a few more that are new and might or do set-up. Then some set-up again after the initial PT which allows me to add more to my 1/2 position. It's not as rigid as just buying a whole position, reaching the PT and holding half. Trends have a way of running, pulling back, running, pulling back, and so on. So it cycles on some holdings. For instance FTK and CAVM have presented more than one trigger. The methodology is more dynamic because of the risk/money management. Hard to get in too deep if you already booked 1/2 profits and are only holding 1% risk on what remains.
ReplyDeleteAlso, I can't shake off the feeling that copper cannot keep going up when silver is already going down. It is too late to short SLW, but it is not too late to short FCX! So I just placed a sell short stop limit order for 200 shares of FCX at $114.99/$114.89, below the recent support level for FCX.
ReplyDeleteWell okay, I read several reports claiming JPM has been covering their silver short, which might explain some of the run up in the metal (market will always roast large position holders).
ReplyDeleteSo, assuming some single entity also holds nearly 90% of the copper position, they too are subject to being roasted by the market gods.
Assuming gold, silver and copper are headed back to earth, my target for silver would be ~$20.
Molybdenum was ~$16 last time I checked, less than 1/2 of all time high. Not such a strong case there of overvalue like PM's may be.
So let's see how this pans out... my feeling is gold and silver resume their rally but if not, equities should begin feeling the pinch (because metals are the tell).
"China engages in copper politics
ReplyDeleteThe Pakistan-Afghanistan border areas are facing two wars — one on terror and the other for minerals
* By Syed Fazl-e-Haider, Special to Gulf News
* Published: 00:00 January 3, 2011"
http://gulfnews.com/opinions/columnists/china-engages-in-copper-politics-1.739858
"Silver price correction to be short-lived, fireworks ahead - Rakhimov
ReplyDeleteSilver Strategies Editor Sean Rakhimov; reckons better things are ahead for the white metal expecting it to rise well above its 2010 high at some point in 2011. Gold Report interview.
Author: Brian Sylvester
Posted: Saturday , 15 Jan 2011 "
http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page32?oid=118547&sn=Detail&pid=65
David - I really like the FCX short trade. I already have shorts on the SPY and QQQ at around 1,273ish and don't want to risk any more on a downside bet. I think your intuition is spot on...Like Jeff Saut said, "Nothing lasts forever". I am just not sure that VXX is the vehicle of choice. I know you don't like in the money SPY puts but I think those minimize your risk and have the potential to pay off 3 fold when the correction comes.
ReplyDeleteSo what if the big silver short was also long at the same time, wouldn't he/she'd be able to accumulate all the while keeping the price from rising?
ReplyDeletePerhaps it's really China dumping dollars into these derivatives in exchange for physical metal?
What happens to metals prices when that trade (assuming it exists) unwinds?
$40 silver by July 4th.
ReplyDeleteTOF - Did you see the article I dug up for you?
ReplyDeleteJust wondering...
When a 9yr old child dies; The US military machine and the mindset inside the capital beltway:
ReplyDelete"When Bill Clinton’s U.S. Ambassador to the UN, Madeleine Albright, was asked by 60 Minutes whether the deaths of half-a-million Iraqi children had been worth it, her answer perfectly reflected the mindset of Washington officials for the past two decades: “I think this is a very hard choice, but the price — we think the price is worth it.”
Planes, Trains & Automobiles/Affirmations, Platitudes & Rules newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5156 comments) on Sat, 01/15/2011 - 10:28 #77839
ReplyDeletehttp://tinyurl.com/47mkckb
(a) Nothing lasts forever, but lots of things go on for a long, long time. Things can go on for a long time, but nothing lasts forever.
(b) Diversify for risk control. Concentrate your bets to get rich.
Platitudes such as the above persist due to the unending need to make sense out of the market. Getting one's head around the market leads to the realization that it's crowd behavior we're trying to understand- we can make generalizations about crowds, but we can't predict short-term movements.
Platitudes turn into 'affirmations' when things are going our way. 'Rules,' however, are what keeps us out of trouble. Even then, each of us needs to find a set of rules that work best- for our personalities, our needs, our goals.
Bill Miller had his ass kicked in 2007-09. Then TK got his assed kicked 2009-10. From time to time, everyone gets it wrong, big time. Maybe sentimenttrader has it wrong right now.
ReplyDeleteMiller's problem was no stops. O/w, 'rules' can keep you solvent when trading the wrong direction.
ReplyDeleteRight now, I see Hussman and Kass waking up each morning to traders kicking sand in their portfolios. They'll eventually get it together and do the same to others.
ReplyDeleteCP - Yeah, I saw that article. That's the first I've seen from analysts at big brokerage houses say anything about downturns. Lee at JP Morgan has actually been spot on for the past 2 years...he's more in the permabull camp though. I'm surprised he's calling for a downturn.
ReplyDeleteHey Guys,
ReplyDeleteI believe the premise of this article: http://tinyurl.com/4ntoo3l
any ideas how to short ANZ RE? Just short the banks, and if available short the shadow bankers?
thx!
That is Fing unbelievable bro. I'll sniff around. Timing is everything. It could take years. I wonder, the article didn't mention anything about credit scores, etc. If the loans are only for those with excellent credit, the bubble will be much longer than it was here.
ReplyDeleteIf CMG can get back to the 240 area, I'll short it.
ReplyDeleteTECK CEO Don lindsay was on BNN
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bnn.ca/News/2011/1/14/Tecks-outlook-for-metals-and-mining.aspx
Hey Guys- I think I found a way to have streaming comments here. It costs a few bucks, but no big deal. It looks like you guys will have to create an account to comment. It also looks like you can comment as a guest, but I'm not sure if you have to sign in each time.
ReplyDeleteDo you want me to see if I can make it work? It looks kinda cool. Take a look at Chartroll.
test
ReplyDeletetest
ReplyDeletetest
ReplyDeleteSo what did TECK CEO Don lindsay have to say, I'll bet it wasn't pessimistic.
ReplyDeleteAA CEO seemed quite upbeat with his outlook.
We're likely to see some hesitation each time China raises rates to cool growth (inflation), I just wonder how much longer they intend on retaining the $USD/yuan peg.
"Ancient relics will delay huge Afghan copper mine
ReplyDeleteDec 6, 2010 8:59 AM | By Reuters
Safeguarding ancient Buddhist relics at a huge Chinese-run copper mine in Afghanistan could take three years and delay the country’s biggest foreign investment project, the Afghan mining minister says."
"China engages in copper politics
ReplyDeleteThe Pakistan-Afghanistan border areas are facing two wars — one on terror and the other for minerals
* By Syed Fazl-e-Haider, Special to Gulf News
* Published: 00:00 January 3, 2011
* Gulf News
Interestingly, China is exploiting the world's largest untapped deposits of copper under a security cover being provided by the US and Nato forces in the turbulent border areas of Afghanistan and Pakistan. China has already taken control of copper and gold deposits at Saindak and Aynak in Pakistan and Afghanistan, respectively.
China's thirst for strategic mineral deposits to fuel its growing economy does not end here. Chinese companies are currently competing with Canada's Barrick Gold and Chile's Antofagasta to get a mining licence for Reko Diq, the world-class copper and gold mine in Balochistan's Chagai district.
While the US wages a war on extremists in the region, China is engaged in a resource war. The US attacked Afghanistan in October 2001. In September 2002, state-owned Metallurgical Corp of China (MCC) acquired the Saindak copper project in Balochistan on lease for a period of 10 years.
CP- Refresh your screen. Try the new comment thingy.
ReplyDeleteOkay - pffff, is this thing on?
ReplyDeleteCP- It's at the top of the post. Start fresh.
ReplyDeleteCP- Go back to the original post before clicking on the comments.
ReplyDeleteIt works for me just as is, I've got the site partially blocked so might not see what you see but appears to be working same as before aside from a slightly larger font, which I like anyway.
ReplyDeleteThe reason I've got it partially blocked is to avoid the bandwidth overhead of downloading more than is necessary.
I see the box at the top of this page but only your posts appear there, not mine.
ReplyDeleteYou guys post all those 6GB files and if I don't block them I'm dead...
Testing post on here. Different looking screen.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.google.com/finance?q=NYSE:BORN
ReplyDeleteSeeing if we get cool http
CP- I think you'll be ok. See the empty box under the new comment box? That's where you post. I checked the system requirments for this and it is tiny. If I doesn't work for you we will switch back.
ReplyDeleteCSTR - Took one in the gut, not sure I like the business model but interesting to watch anyway...
ReplyDeleteCP- Take a look at this screen shot.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.screencast.com/t/EPfSga75Iv
Mark, I'll try and see how to enable it, right now it must be blocked b/c it won't allow me to enter text in the text box (nothing happens).
ReplyDelete2nd,
ReplyDeletei just watched the van the man Video and it just reminded me of what a great Album that was. I wore out a cassette and a CD listening to it. I might even wear out a MP3 player if thats possible,thanks to you.
RB
the new format looks great, can you get some of those ads to pop up on the side, to help cover the cost?
ReplyDelete