Tuesday, January 4, 2011
1/5/11 Evil Ways
Re: Gold and Silver/ Evil Ways newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5130 comments) on Tue, 01/04/2011 - 19:54 #77132 (in reply to #77107)
'it might be your moment to jump back in'
http://tinyurl.com/38qtcsl
You've got me running and hiding all over town
You've got me sneaking and peeping and running you down
This can't go on, Lord knows you got to change, baby
analyst65- For some reason, positions in gold/silver make me feel like that more than any other holding. Maybe later.
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Yep, ground-hog day, and I not referring to a common spiced pizza ingredient.
ReplyDeleteCraig- I think you boarded the spaceship sometime in 2005.
ReplyDeleteTRID - Those poor saps can't win for losing! -18% after-hours...
ReplyDeleteOkay kids.....
ReplyDeleteRolling correction, lots of sectors got hit fairly hard with the Russell and the Q's closing down a bit. S&P masking what happened to R2000 and Q's. Airlines did well. PM's got whacked. Duh! Long term uptrend remains intact but some caution is required as we don't want to give back all our gains from yesterday or late December. No shorts.
CP, your favorite stock is on the long list. WAIT for entries. IOW, wait for trend to resume, the second mouse gets the cheese. Requirements: Market up, indices up, sector up, stock up.
Textbook entry **BY ME**. From stockcharts it looks like entry above top of today's bar (6.85 or so) stop below todays bar at about 6-6.15 (top of previous high/support looks to have stopped todays decline). PT would be entry plus stop amt. IOW, equal risk. If it doesn't set-up, we wait.
2nd....spaceship indeed!
When did sharkie part ways with us to climb solo? If he decided to follow the PAL trail, I think he's kicking --s right now.
ReplyDeleteFutes turning south.
ReplyDeleteSilver (Mar futes) reversed from +0.97% to +0.10% in the time it took me to eat dinner.
ReplyDeletequite a doozy of a head and shoulders pattern on the Dow if you look over a 15 year window.
ReplyDeleteYep, GMO had some wind knocked out of it's sails early today, I think Coghill was busy converting their warrants at the same time, adding to the confusion and maybe explaining a stronger recovery than I anticipated. After giving it further thought, I'm more inclined to expect additional downside with that one until I witness differently, meanwhile I'll take what I can get and be happy about it. Doesn't matter if weakness persists into tomorrow, the trend will re-establish, only a question of when.
ReplyDeleteSomebody was sending a confidence shattering message today I don't think the market was too happy about. I'm gonna have to see how things go tomorrow and take it from there.
"head and shoulders pattern on the Dow"
ReplyDeleteThat might explain the recent focus on large caps? Haven't we recently been hearing whispers and premonitions about how large caps should outperform with increasing interest rates?
West Tx. nuclear waste dump approved...
ReplyDeleteMan, that was one LONGGGGGGG Fing meeting 6hrs. I think we nailed down the location of 2 light switches.
ReplyDeleteDoesn't this kinda sound like a witch hunt?:
ReplyDeleteThe Delaware U.S. Attorney’s office is looking into allegations that Tea Party candidate Christine O’Donnell has used funds from her failed Senate campaigns to pay personal expenses, the Associated Press reported.
But a million Frenchmen aren’t always wrong immediately
ReplyDeleteMarket Sentiment:
A good part of the market sentiment quantification problem is clearly that the majority is not always wrong, nor are they wrong immediately upon the development of their strong collective sentiment. In other words, the market sentiment theory is, like all other indicators and market theories, not always right. It is precisely this aspect of market sentiment that points out the need for additional filters or timing indicators, which are likely to weed out false signals from the various market sentiment indicators.
From High Performance Futures Trading, power lessons from the masters by Joel Robbins, copyright 1989, 1990. A very interesting book has “Twenty-One Tools for Better Trading which is worth the price of admission.
Les, congratulations on your decision to graduate from trading school. Now your real leaning can occur through self discovery of what suits your personality.
Santana mix:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MXp413NynFk&feature=list_related&playnext=1&list=MLGxdCwVVULXegxty1kM39I4xUbyU--Z3v
T3D
Craig enjoyed your lecture or was it a rant? on trend is still our friends. I agree, but for protection. I was wondering where you place stops on initial buys and when you are trailing a stop. Is it mechanical percentage or use days lows or maybe moving averages.
ReplyDeleteBob
Mark,
ReplyDeleteHave you discussed flooring yet? Better block off a week!
Father-Son Duo Rand and Ron Paul Love Silver and Gold, But Differ Significantly in Personal Investment Strategies
ReplyDeleteBy Lauren Hepler on December 27, 2010 12:07 AM
"According to his most recent disclosure report, Rand Paul has invested between $1,001 and $15,000 in American Century’s Global Gold fund, which includes stocks in gold, silver and other mining operations. Ron Paul, meanwhile, has invested hundreds of thousands of dollars in 17 different gold, silver and other mining companies. Three-fourths of Ron Paul’s assets are within the mining industry, according to the Center’s analysis of his most recent report.
"[Ron Paul] owns gold and silver as an inflation hedge and as a 'store of value,'" said Jeff Deist, chief of staff for Ron Paul, in an e-mail to OpenSecrets Blog.
By “store of value,” Deist explained that the Ron Paul's gold and silver investments are "static" and that they do not pay dividends or provide any cash flow for Paul. Instead, they act as a safeguard in the event the paper dollar loses significant value.
Among Ron Paul's largest gold investments is between $500,000 and $1 million worth of stocks in gold producer Goldcorp, Inc. and between $250,000 and $500,000 a piece in multi-national gold mining companies AngloGold Ashanti and Newmont Mining Corporation, according to the Center’s analysis of records on file with the Senate Office of Public Records. (Federal politicians are only required to disclose the value of their assets in broad ranges.)"
http://www.opensecrets.org/news/2010/12/rand-paul-ron-paul-gold-and-silver.html
RB- Normally I'm used to this crap. But these people really are crazy. Nice as hell, don't get me wrong, but damn. REALLY? I'm working on a design right now for a wall safe, behind a TV, behind a one way mirror so you can watch the tv in the bath room. ALL mechanical/automated....
ReplyDeleteAnd I need to rake the leaves at home.
Light switches - Yes, but are they 3-way light switches, and are either of these operating wall outlets, overhead light fixtures, or both?
ReplyDeleteYou've still got to spec the color and style of those fixtures and cover plates!
Send the girls out to rake leaves, they're old enough aren't they?
ReplyDeleteSOL - +4%
ReplyDeleteDavid - it was your post on TBT that reminded me of something else I had read and that's why I looked at the chart so thanks. I hope it works out for both of us.
ReplyDeleteAfter looking at ?Craig's? example on GMO I realized this is not a Landry trade per the webinar. I'm guessing with the amount of movement in TBT Landry would probably pass if he wasn't in the trade already.
So how do I place my stop? My entry price wasn't that great this morning. By the time I was able to pull up my trading account TBT had traded up to $37.80 and that's where I bought it. Since there is a FEELING of market weakness, I'm going to place a hard stop somewhere in the $34.00-$34.50 range which is what I view as the first strong level of support. That would protect me from a 3% correction (or more) in the S&P and I can always get back in later. At $34.00 my total loss would be $760.00 My target sell price would be $42.00.
In a way I would prefer to have a mild correction in the S&P because I think it would create a lot of new setups in several other stocks.
CP- All Homeworks controlled. 8 buttons per/location and and can turn on/off/dim any "scene" in the entire house. Really the only cool thing about it is the lights power on/off at a slowly. Control system for the lights costs $25K.
ReplyDeleteYou can turn all your lights on/off from your car or computer, if that matters ;)
ReplyDeleteBob, I'll leave it to you to decide which! LOL.
ReplyDeleteSince I'm buying extremes in pullbacks/knockout moves (many happened today - SEE GMO for example). I place initial stops under the bottom of the knockout bar. Where exactly is some technical and some art. I guess you would call it mechanical. Unless I'm leaving I use my discretion. You never know, the market could get close and reverse right around my stop. If I leave I might enter a conditional stop order to execute at market if the bid hits my stop price. It depends on how far the stock could possibly move on noise alone. I want the stop outside normal noise, yet not so far that I might sustain larger losses than necessary if it's hit. Say there is another flash crash or God forbid 9/11 for example.
Textbook is right below the knockout/pullback bar. A volatile stock might demand more room.
The stop doesn't move until I hit the initial price target, which is the same distance above the buy pt as the stop is below it. Once the initial price target is hit, I take half the position off and move the stop to the break even/initial buy pt. From there it gets moved up very gradually as the price moves in my favor, which gradually gets looser and looser so as to capture longer term moves.
Right now I have a list of a handful of stocks that had knockout patterns today, with entry prices, stops, price targets and position sizes. If the market moves in my favor and one or more trigger I'm prepared.
I will have those plus my current holdings and the indices on my screens tomorrow.
Mark, this is why people should hire a good architect, a contractor they trust, and go on vacation and return to a completed home.
They would save the cost of the vacation by not obsessing on minutia. Decide on what you want and let the contractor and electrician deal with it.
Port, Landry might not trade TBT for other reasons. 1. It's an ultra. 2. It's well traded and fairly thick.
ReplyDeleteHowever, your entry is reasonably close to a safe entry at yesterdays open price of $37.72.
TBT could move $2 or more per day and the bottom of that bar is $36.68. You could probably put a stop between $36.68 and $35.80 and be safe, but you could also hold a larger position with a lower stop. $34 - $34.50 would give you more room and time to decide if the market really turns ugly and there is a rush to safety (?) in TLT. Does your broker have conditional/advanced orders? Those are hard stops yet they are held by the broker and are not visible in level II.
Craig
FF- That's my dream. Would you believe the project, 4 years in the making, was @ 1.2M. Now it's $1.98M. I'm guessing I've 'lost' $40K through the C/O's.
ReplyDeleteI need to get another job!
I got home much latter than I thought, so my SSO trade is still on the books for tomorrow. Oh well.
Craig can you share a few symbols you are looking at so i could play at home. I will watch the video. I thought i knew, what a knock out bar was, but now not sure.
ReplyDeleteTrend is All Our Friend,
Bob
Mark, LOL I do side electrical/HVAC jobs for a contractor friend. In September we fished a copper line set 45 feet through a maze of attics, crawl space and space between floors with out kinking it!, so this guy could have a 1 ton mini split in a 40 square foot closet that he wanted to turn into a wine cellar.( Room temp is a little bit hotter in Arizona). We probably could of added on an entire super cooled room to his house for what he paid, but he just had to have it in that space. Unfortunately the customer is always right.
DJIA -70, SPX -7. Silver futes down -0.70%. So an opening pullback seems clear.
ReplyDeleteI have meetings today, and unlikely to be posting until lunch time.
'When I come home, my house is dark and...'
Looks like BYD got an upgrade and has gapped up. I'm still holding shares but unfortunately, no options.
ReplyDeleteJust a few interesting charts to ponder
ReplyDelete~~~~~~
http://cdnmo.coveritlive.com/media/image/201101/phpuhLLRrchart.png
http://cdnmo.coveritlive.com/media/image/201101/php1NxtZEchart.png
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_w_OE7neHnUI/TSRDjsAxH_I/AAAAAAAABrs/wVCXeS2M5J4/s1600/110105+Vix+Weekly+Support+Trendline.png
From this chart it looks like this move up from July is close to topping.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$CPCE&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=t39666823101&a=217542525&r=9655&cmd=print
Just read BC's opening diatribe:
ReplyDelete"There is no bubble anywhere unless you want to listen to storytellers. If you do, I recommend watching TV. But if you are serious about trading prices, you will be focused on prices, and little else."
Funny he says that after ranting about how the drop in gold is some conspiracy by the major governments in the world.
Bought a 7 x BBY $33 Feb Calls at $2.55.
ReplyDeleteSold only 1000 of my CHGI at $1.98; still holding about 75% of my original position, unfortunately.
CSCO - Preparing to retake 50SMA?
ReplyDeleteAA - I'm really wondering how the earnings will go on this one.
ReplyDeleteha ha, this is really good, not mkt related.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/01/12-year-old-basketball-phenom/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed:+TheBigPicture+(The+Big+Picture)
Setting a sell price on my 10 x SPY $126 Calls expiring on Friday at $1.55.
ReplyDeleteAt risk of jynxing this once again:
ReplyDeleteGo RAS!
U$D pretty strong here, hasn't penetrated the upper trend line though... on the hairy edge of it.
ReplyDeleteCYD - Green
ReplyDeleteNice call on MORT so far T3D. I missed it by .10.
ReplyDeleteASTI breaking out of its weekly setup. SOL started popping out of its weekly base yesterday. Its back to bed for me. Still having a rough time w/ the time change from Beijing....
ReplyDelete"You can turn all your lights on/off from your car or computer, if that matters ;) "
ReplyDeleteOkay, but can you set the dispense temperature of the bath water?
Sold half of my BYD at $11.62 that I bought a week or so ago on a breakout.
ReplyDeleteScrew it...completely out of my BYD at $11.61.
ReplyDeleteSo far my cash position is up 1%! Should I take the money and run...???
ReplyDeleteI'm feeling much better about my positions this morning than last night. Hopefully the U$D fails to impress...
ReplyDeletenice one tof (on byd)
ReplyDeleteand thanks anon for the big picture. very enjoyable! by!
Nice call by Jesse on ASTI.
ReplyDeleteMark MOTR got goosed by Cramer in lightening round. Love em or hate him, he sure moves stocks.
t3d
XING - "InPlay: Qiao Xing wins bid and acquires equity interest in large copper-molybdenum mining company Briefing.com"
ReplyDeleteI kinda like the story behind this company. Family has a successful mining background but tried to enter cell phone business and failed, now re-entering the mining business.
Another screw it...screw it I sold my SPY calls at $1.3. I added 3 more Feb BBY $33 calls at $2.45. I think BBY ultimately rebounds like every other big cap stock has from oversold positions. It's never as good or as bad as it seems with these big caps...at least that's my take.
ReplyDeleteConstructive action in V/MA/AXP.
ReplyDeleteCatch you guys in a few.
Don't like the volume and price pattern in UNG here. Sold it 6.22. Hopefully, I'll get a better entry to re-load. Sold ASTI as well at 3.74. Back to bed for me...
ReplyDelete"Okay, but can you set the dispense temperature of the bath water?"
ReplyDeleteOf course! What's your budget?
We can also lower or raise the lighting levels, lower or raise the shades, change the channels and volume levels for the widescreen behind the mirror, and set the ambient temp for the bathroom and toilet seat.....from your car, office, boat, aircraft, or your coop.
Who's Cramer? :>)
ReplyDeleteIs he that guy that lives with the Bhagwan and Ramtha?
Back in eBay stock at $28.61 and eBay Feb $27 Calls at $2.39.
ReplyDeletePerfect, I'll take one if I can get Tierra Del Fuego on that thing! Coop-de-lux model please!
ReplyDeleteI'd also like to order the full-option list consisting of sneeze-through wind vents, starch-on mud guards, twice pipes and chrome fender dents!
ReplyDeletePicked up full position of QID 11.12
ReplyDeleteOne can't help but be concerned about proper grammar, spelling and the use of capitalization here on the list. I received this reminder from a friend and thought I would pass it on. Everyone (Mark) should make note of it and try to take such concerns into consideration.
ReplyDeleteThe Art of Capitalization
In this world of hi-tech, I have noticed that many who send text messages and e-mail have forgotten the "art" of capitalization. Those of you who fall into this category, PLEASE take note of the following statement:
Capitalization is the difference between "helping your Uncle Jack off a horse" and "helping your uncle jack off a horse".
I cannot stress enough that proper use of grammar can be MOST IMPORTANT!
CP: Dingle Balls, hydraulic lift shocks, electric doors and lighted wheel wells with that too?
ReplyDeleteDo you want to Super Size that?
Please, as long as I can get the factory air conditioning from the air conditioned factory.
ReplyDeleteOkay guys and gals, I've gotta go feed ducks, they're tapping their feet and glancing at their watches...
ReplyDeleteGood ole RASy breaking out if it clears $2.42.
ReplyDeleteRBY - I think there's a good chance the special sale is nearing an end.
ReplyDeleteGold - $1570 by July 4th...
BBY!!!! Rumor has it Bill Ackman is interested in the company. I put $3k in options in this that are up about $600. Sweet. My theory that these big caps are never as good or as bad as they seem, for the most part, seems to ring true.
ReplyDeletePMI - Moving up slowly...
ReplyDeleteWow...this is turning out to be a really good day in the markets for me. I'm probably jynxing it but I'm up about 8% today.
ReplyDeleteBBY - You know I'm a sucker for charts like that, I salivate at those kind of gaps.
ReplyDeleteI decided to cover at $0.11 the 5 CSCO January puts I sold a month ago at $1.00. I have extracted most of the absolute gain from them, and now I would rather have the capital backing up these puts available for other adventures. :)
ReplyDeleteI see that the broad market decided to rally a little, but it will have a hard time sustaining the rally if the bond yields are going to RALLY during every rally attempt by the equity market.
ReplyDeleteport2013, congratulations on your TBT entry. :) I didn't have a stop placed on my TBT position, but right now I figured I should place it a little above my entry price, so as to guarantee myself some profit on it. I just placed a stop/limit at $38/$37.95.
IDX - Gonna break through $90 soon?
ReplyDeleteI decided to use Craig's strategy with UNG and place a fairly loose stop (relative to yesterday's $6.30 level) under my remaining 1700 shares, at $5.94/$5.92.
ReplyDeleteJan 5 2011 - Indonesia Expects 50% Rise in Investment From Singapore
ReplyDelete"Jakarta. Indonesia expects neighbor Singapore to boost its investment in the country to capitalize on the conducive political climate and growing economy, a top minister said.
Investment from Singapore is expected to increase 50 percent this year, Coordinating Minister for the Economy Hatta Rajasa said.
He expressed his optimism after meeting on Tuesday with Lim Hng Kiang, Singapore’s Minister of Trade and Industry, in Jakarta.
“Having Singapore as an international financial hub will hopefully help promote investment opportunities in Indonesia to investors,” Hatta said on Tuesday.
Foreign direct investment from Singapore was valued at $5 billion last year.
Indonesia is struggling to attract more foreign investment to spur growth. President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono had conveyed the same message to Singapore’s deputy prime minister, Teo Chee Hean, during a bilateral meeting in Bali last month."
http://www.thejakartaglobe.com/bisindonesia/indonesia-expects-50-rise-in-investment-from-singapore/415295
PKX - There's no stopping this one?
ReplyDeleteTOF -- great calls on BYD and RAS! Somehow, all impressive up moves in stocks tend to occur when I am most scared of the broad market collapsing and so afraid to take long positions in individual stocks. But I should probably learn by now that not only individual stocks, but also the broad market tends to move the most when I am in a most bearish mood...
ReplyDeleteTSTY. What? No one likes tasty treats any more.
ReplyDeleteGot to lay low today. Looks like the Caps Cops are all over my ass..:)
SLV had a decent pullback already, and so I decided to place a buy to cover stop limit order on my SLV short (4% of my portfolio) at $28.78/$28.80, just above today's intraday high.
ReplyDeleteAt least it's not the CAPS-LOCK cops! You definitely don't want them coming after you, they're relentless.
ReplyDeleteTime to but a pant-load of something?
Got to catch the swearing in at the House...
ReplyDeleteRe-entered UNG 6.09. Might be enough of a pullback for today.
ReplyDeleteThat wasn't necessarily an inference on obtaining a pant-load of TSTY, just came out that way by accident.
ReplyDeleteOPEN. Glad your out of that one my friend.
ReplyDeleteI got it CP :)
ReplyDeleteJesse- I usually wait for the floor to close trading for the day. 15 minutes from now. Sometimes you get pretty wild swings.
ReplyDeleteMOTR, 1/2 of position sold @20.17, put in an order around 2.5% below to see if I can get them back. I will ride the rest for now.
ReplyDeleteMark- Yes, I usually wait until the 2:30-4:00 time frame for natgas, but I've been watching a bunch of dojis form around 4.45 on the 10 minute chart. http://www.oilngold.com/data/charts/nymex-natural-gas-charts-200808191156/
ReplyDeleteThat could be the bottom. If not, its a good place to place a stop loss. Tomorrow's report should be interesting especially w/ the pullback the last 2 days on decreasing volume.
I might be joining you again in GMO CP...
ReplyDeleteDavid, T rates are still pretty darn low, (I remember considering 7.5~8% a great rate on 30yr mortgages) while equities and commodities prices have risen considerably, do you think the market has begun to price in some inflation?
ReplyDeleteIt kinda looks that way to me, I guess it all depends on which side has it right this time, maybe we're liable to oscillate sideways for a while???
Jesse- Yeah, I'll cover before tomorrow's report. My short was just a quick pull back play. I do have ST concerns though about natty as anything other than a scalp.
ReplyDeleteMark - GMO - Quickie update: I figure GMO is worth about $3.50 right now if you consider it was trading around $12 when moly was $30.
ReplyDeleteIf moly can move to $20 by July 4th, that would put GMO around $7.70, notwithstanding the permitting process.
The public release of the BLM environmental impact statement is our next milestone, slated for first quarter, at which time public comment begins. Maybe we get a pop on news or gradually rising moly prices create room for price increase.
The expectation as of this moment is beginning mine construction by end of year, so it's slipped slightly from mid-year.
Still some pretty large bids for RAS. If, if it can hold here and clear 2.60ish, it will get into a very steep slope to the downside. That's usually good news. VWAP above is tiny.
ReplyDeleteCP, I think the market is definitely pricing in some inflation now -- that's why the yields were rising right after the QE2 announcement.
ReplyDeleteTBT is on a tear today...
CP- Thanks. 3.50?
ReplyDeleteThere is a serious buyer in RAS.
ReplyDeleteTOF- RAS just popped up on the NYSE top ten. We might get some mo-mo players here.
ReplyDeleteC going for $5.
ReplyDeleteBook value on RAS is about $9/share just an FYI.
ReplyDeleteRAS, jackpot of the day.
ReplyDeleteDO interesting
Yeah, DO/RIG. Whispers yesterday about relaxing OS drilling regs.
ReplyDeleteC has 28M $5 asks right here to chew through. If it can???
ReplyDeleteOops, no, I meant $6.50! But actual current moly price is $16(from GMO web site), and $16/2.6 -> $6.15, so I should've said GMO is worth $6.15 in today's market.
ReplyDelete$3.50 would be a steal at this point. ;)
Australia floods to hit global steel supply
ReplyDeleteBy Agency reporter
Wednesday, 5 Jan 2011
"QUEENSLAND: The Queensland floods could have a significant long-term effect on the global steel industry, the premier of the Australian state, Ms. Anna Bligh has warned.
According to a British Broadcasting Corporation report on Tuesday, Bligh‘s comments came as three quarters of the state‘s coal fields were unable to operate having been flooded.
The situation in Queensland is being closely watched by the global steel industry, because it exports half the coking coal needed to make the metal.
However, steel analysts say it is too soon to be able to quantify the impact.
They say this is because it depends on how long the floods continue, and the size of the coking coal stockpiles the world‘s steelmakers currently have in place.
Bligh said in an interview with Australian broadcaster ABC, ”We have three-quarters of all of our coal fields unable to operate and unable to supply markets.”
Railway lines that transport the coal to ports for export have also been flooded.
Bligh added that until the waters recede, ”it‘s going to be hard to really fully assess the long-term economic and social impact”."
http://www.punchng.com/Articl.aspx?theartic=Art201101051561078
RIMM?
ReplyDeleteLME LATEST - Metals traders digest strong US data, reassess sentiment
ReplyDelete"By Barbara Stcherbatcheff, Correspondent barbara.stcherbatcheff@fastmarkets.com +44 (0)20 7929 6339
- Base metals traded sideways on Wednesday afternoon, shrugging off better-than-expected US economic data, but major buyers largely avoided the complex following an earlier sell-off in which copper and nickel fell more than two percent.
- Copper traded at $9,472 per tonne, down $108, while nickel traded down $325 at $24,725 and aluminium was down $37 at $2,448. “The market is likely to be quite erratic over the next month or so, with an episode of potentially quite intense activity likely giving way to a period of Chinese reticence,” Leon Westgate, analyst at Standard Bank, said. “The potential for significant price volatility therefore looks like hanging over the market until mid-February, when conditions should start to normalise.”
- Economic data showing that US private employers added 297,000 jobs in December, almost three times the size of economist forecasts, while services industries grew at the fastest pace since May 2006 boosted investor optimism and the dollar, which rose as much as 1.5 percent in the biggest intraday gain since September 15.
- A rebound in the dollar - which traded firmly at 1.3138 against the euro - also eroded the appeal of metals as alternative investments on Wednesday, with the greenback rising for a third day against a global basket of currencies.
- Aluminium has risen over the past month but has not managed to replicate the impressive gains of copper - a divergence mainly attributable to supply levels, with large overhangs in aluminium. But copper stockpiles have rebounded from historic lows, climbing a net 1,575 tonnes on Wednesday to 379,250 tonnes, the highest since September 24.
(Reporting by Barbara Stcherbatcheff. Editing by Mark Shaw"
LME LATEST - Metals traders digest strong US data, reassess sentiment
ReplyDelete"By Barbara Stcherbatcheff, Correspondent barbara.stcherbatcheff@fastmarkets.com +44 (0)20 7929 6339
- Base metals traded sideways on Wednesday afternoon, shrugging off better-than-expected US economic data, but major buyers largely avoided the complex following an earlier sell-off in which copper and nickel fell more than two percent.
- Copper traded at $9,472 per tonne, down $108, while nickel traded down $325 at $24,725 and aluminium was down $37 at $2,448. “The market is likely to be quite erratic over the next month or so, with an episode of potentially quite intense activity likely giving way to a period of Chinese reticence,” Leon Westgate, analyst at Standard Bank, said. “The potential for significant price volatility therefore looks like hanging over the market until mid-February, when conditions should start to normalise.”
- Economic data showing that US private employers added 297,000 jobs in December, almost three times the size of economist forecasts, while services industries grew at the fastest pace since May 2006 boosted investor optimism and the dollar, which rose as much as 1.5 percent in the biggest intraday gain since September 15.
- A rebound in the dollar - which traded firmly at 1.3138 against the euro - also eroded the appeal of metals as alternative investments on Wednesday, with the greenback rising for a third day against a global basket of currencies.
- Aluminium has risen over the past month but has not managed to replicate the impressive gains of copper - a divergence mainly attributable to supply levels, with large overhangs in aluminium. But copper stockpiles have rebounded from historic lows, climbing a net 1,575 tonnes on Wednesday to 379,250 tonnes, the highest since September 24.
(Reporting by Barbara Stcherbatcheff. Editing by Mark Shaw"
My guess is you guys get this news and so I probably shouldn't feel a need to post it.
ReplyDeleteBTW, sorry for double post...
Will be buying index puts for first time in a year or so if we continue to trend into the close.
ReplyDeleteSold my CHGI at $1.90 so I believe I made $0 on this! I really can't complain tho...RAS + BBY = woo hoo!
ReplyDeleteanyone know anything about up move in vgz?
ReplyDeleteJeez...the year is 3 days old and I'm up 12% already. It's official. RAS will gap lower tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteVGZ-
ReplyDelete"Vista Gold Corp. Announces Results of a New Preliminary Feasibility Study at the Batman Deposit at its Mt. Todd Gold Project, Northern Territory, Australia; Doubles Estimated Proven and Probable Reserves to 4.1 Million Contained Gold Ounces"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Vista-Gold-Corp-Announces-prnews-2540873284.html?x=0&.v=1
VGZ - That was a PR from yesterday morning though, not sure about the delayed reaction.
ReplyDeletePicked up Feb QQQQ $59 puts at close.
ReplyDeleteMy rationale: S+P closed above its monthly bollinger band today for the first time in 4 years. Weekly rsi above 70 for all indices except for Dow which I believe is at 69 (maybe 70 after today). Put/call ratio three straight daily closes between .65 and .70. 10 day put/call ratio at .77. Lastly, per Sentimentrader from a couple of weeks ago:
If we bought QQQQ on the 8th trading day of January and held until the end of the month, we would have had returns of -2.3%, -3.1%, -2.3%, -2.7%, -4.1% ,-1.6% and -7.7%. The median maximum gain during those trades was +0.7% compared to a median drawdown of -5.3%.
The factors working against the trade are 1) It isn't the 8th trading day of the month yet, 2) The VIX looks like its rolling over and wants to form a double bottom, and 3) Smart money bullishness as of last week spiked from 29 to 38%. #3 is a major concern for me since smart money always spikes DOWN at market tops.
So...as always, I'll keep a short leash on the trade.
"3 days old and I'm up 12% already"
ReplyDeleteTake out your false teeth mamma, I wanna suck on your gums!
Later Gators.
ReplyDeleteJesse - I have been patiently waiting to go short the QQQQs but I still can't find a great reason to go short them. I almost did at the end of last week but fear got the better of me. I saw a lot of the leaders trading poorly. Come the new year and that ain't the case. I think there is a strong case for going short, though, and that is (in addition to the reasons you cited), waning enthusiasm after the CES show is done.
ReplyDeleteQ's at multi-year highs. Trend is up.
ReplyDeleteSo it's time to go short?
Please 'splain that to me...I'm no "Carnac the Magnificent". Sounds like something they would do over at SOH while losing their lunch money.
Agree, trade the right side of the reversal, not the left.
ReplyDeleteCP: Here's a fundamental idea. (?!)
ReplyDeleteWith the way these guys throw money at brokers, they have to be a killer money maker.
You just have to pick the best management with lowest costs. Fees don't matter as long as they are inline.
I know I used to make Roger Reiney wealthy.
Bloomberg By Yi Tian - Jan 5, 2011:
ReplyDelete"Copper futures for March delivery rose 3.9 cents, or 0.9 percent, to close at $4.408 a pound at 1:16 p.m. on the Comex in New York. The price reached a record $4.498 on Jan. 3.
Earlier, futures dropped as much as 1.8 percent on bets that demand may wane in China amid moves to damp inflation.
On the London Metal Exchange, copper for delivery in three months fell $30, or 0.3 percent, to $9,550 a metric ton ($4.33 a pound).
Inventories monitored by the LME have climbed to the highest since Sept. 24.
Aluminum, nickel, tin and zinc also fell in London. Lead rose."
"With the way these guys throw money at brokers, they have to be a killer money maker."
ReplyDeleteETFC pops into my head on that idea...
WNR - Man, that's been some run in the face of these higher crude prices! And to think I haven't been watching. Shame on me!
ReplyDeleteCP how far away are you from Houston/Sugar Land?
ReplyDeleteCheck out HDY.
Lots of whiny comments still on those Barrons articles, my guess is these are shorts complaining about their losses and they're not about to switch sides because the market is wrong and they're still right.
ReplyDeleteHDY was hyperdynamic for my port today. Strong AH.
ReplyDeleteCAVM ran way past the price target!
CYD finished nicely.
XL doing it's thing.
No complaints here.
Sugar Land? Dude, about as far as you! I'm on the East Coast but I've still got eyes and ears on/in W. Texas. I'm thinking of E. Texas all the time though, I don't care for our long bouts of freezing weather and I'm big on green grass and open space.
ReplyDeleteHDY - Man, I really need to find a good coach and learn a few things about how markets work.
ReplyDelete