Wednesday, January 5, 2011
1/6/11 Time Is On My Side
Go ahead, go ahead and light up the town
And baby, do everything your heart desires
Remember, I'll always be around
And I know, I know
Like I told you so many times before
You're gonna come back, baby
'Cause I know
You're gonna come back knocking
Yeah, knocking right on my door
Yes, yes!
Well, time is on my side, yes it is
Time is on my side, yes it is
Damn, I missed a great day for trading!
tof/t3d- Nice gains on RAS/MOTR!
As for me- time is....
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
Covered 1000 shares of my UNG short AH @ 6.12. 3000
ReplyDeleteon deck for tomorrow. Enough $'s for a nice weekend :)
I'm taking solace in Tatro's recent revelation re De Porre's extraordinary patience. Looking back over today's action, I might have swung at SLW with a 34-handle- but who knows? What ifs are a dime a dozen in this business. Also taking solace in a dark British ale.
ReplyDeleteI notice Kass is still hammering away at his bearish take.
ReplyDeletehttp://seabreezepartners.net/letters&catid=15
How many different ways are there to say 'I'm bearish, gosh darnit!'
TZA/VXX/UNG- Can you imagine these dogs again rising to the top of the heap one day? Great examples of the phrase 'the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.'
ReplyDeleteWhat's your take on the new phone?
ReplyDeleteI thought someone said Kass was long?
ReplyDeleteAnyway, I'm gonna stick with a price target of $20 for MoS2 by July 4th, which is a 25% gain from today's price ($20/$16), and TC/GMO are the purest plays there.
I tend to disagree with some folks who say the flooded coal fields down under should increase metal ore prices, I would think the opposite on a short time horizon b/c if there's no coal then who needs ore?
Speaking od new phones, I guess you guys know about the Vegas electronics convention in progress... Apparently everyone's trying to get the scoop on the new technologies.
ReplyDeleteCP- Are you drinking?
ReplyDeleteI've used the phone 3-4x to make calls. And I checked quotes using the Fido app one afternoon. That's all I've had time for so far.
ReplyDeleteIf CP passes, I'll take his shot.
ReplyDeleteMark- In a way, I'm doing much better this year. A year ago, I had plenty of practice taking losses quickly. Now, I'm more inclined to wait. No gains, of course. But far less work.
ReplyDeleteMark, your question is a bit broad but no, I'm too young to drink! Or at least that's what I tell the waitress who asks me that same question ("what would you like to drink").
ReplyDeleteI was getting low a week ago, so had to polish off the last bit when I realized I was about to develop a drinking problem. ;)
OAKBX has actually declined in value the past two days. So I also take solace in not having risked the buy-and-hold- it would have been a losing bet.
ReplyDeleteOkay guys, why would you think I'm inebriated? Last I checked, I wasn't.
ReplyDeleteWith the notable exception of Japan, little exuberance in Asian markets tonight.
ReplyDeleteYou'll have to ask Mark, cp. I thought he was politely offering to buy you one.
ReplyDeleteYeah, there's really been an impressive run in a wide range of stocks, it's getting considerably more difficult to identify what might be a bargain.
ReplyDeleteEspecially for me, the untrained amateur. This is where I think FF's method begins to outshine a buy/hold strategy.
I still think the sell-off in gold/silver is worrisome.
ReplyDeleteAnd I still can't understand how investors with large holdings in metals do it- the swings are wild. I'd have to be stoned all day and all night to get through it.
ReplyDeleteNo one expects a global meltdown tonight. So I say we get one.
ReplyDeleteSee y'll in the am...
"I'd have to be stoned all day and all night to get through it."
ReplyDeleteThat probably goes a long way towards explaining the mood swings.
Metals themselves haven't been all that volatile though, just certain (popular) ones? DBB only has a couple of harrowing turns since June?
Kinda looks to me like it's just back testing and ready to resume upward from here...
2nd- Now your comment makes sense!
ReplyDeleteCP- Check your last 2 posts before mine. Spelling/typo :) Hey, if I'm going to get nailed for a lack of caps, which I don't really get btw, I'm on the prowl for a scapegoat ;)
"No one expects a global meltdown tonight."
ReplyDeleteJust go read the yahoo boards, you'll find plenty of young retail bears there just itching at the chance to fork over their newly acquired "check into cash" fortunes.
Mark.
ReplyDeleteYour Uncle did what to a horse. LOL. Reminds me of that really bad Chevy Chase movie.
Bob
Mark, being your scapegoat sounds like a very risky proposition and "d" and "f" keys are RiGhT nExT to one another on my qwerty keyboard!
ReplyDeleteHow they do it.....large holdings of anything that is.....
ReplyDeleteThis is the reason I like dip buying trends.
You get in early enough to capture a short term return and raise stops. Then you can sit and relax and ride out ups and downs because the torture is psychological. If you already have a profit and break even stops and your holdings are far enough away from the stops, it makes trading a hell of a lot more pleasurable.
Wasn't CP buying GMO in the $3-$4 area. Now that it's over $6 and he's taken some off the table, what's the worry?
The worry is when you first get in. If you constantly trade in and out that worrying is a constant.
It's really hard on the nerves and it makes for some frantic jumpy thinking, fortune telling and worrying about the next wiggle - waggle or zig - zag.
It might even make you a user of zig zags.
BTW, the report tonight is pretty good with all but the R2000 finishing at new highs.
BB Arrow still pointing higher.
RB- My Uncle used to be a cop and was in the Secrete Service. I kid you not.
ReplyDeleteAnd I don't ever recall seeing you type without use of caps, but in no event does that observation in any way permit you to take such liberties with me!
ReplyDeleteI was just teasing you Mark. Your caps are usually good, but your spelling isn't as good as your drafting abilities. Your uncle jack is a little off though. I don't think I'd let him get too close to my scapegoat if I were you.
ReplyDeleteOh great, now we have to be cautious of Mark trying to show us some kind of secret squirrel handshake when we least expect it!
ReplyDeleteI knew it. The secrete service? What a perv.
ReplyDeleteNo goat kids for him!
Oh wait...do you mean secret? That would be better....although now the secret is, uh, not so much.
Definitely, the channels are fairly well defined and have been for a while now, we can just jump in at the bottom of the channel and ride it to the top.
ReplyDeleteOkay, maybe that's a little too simplistic but I'm a distiller.
Yeah, well you REALLY, REALLY want to avoid the secrete handshake! LOL!
ReplyDeleteOh man am I glad I learned to spell. ;) I was the first kid in my class to learn to read and write, too.
ReplyDeleteCrap. If the little spell check line doesn't appear I'm screwed :)
ReplyDeleteOne word: Wow
ReplyDeletehttp://www.cnbc.com/id/40928915
Mark, you must be a human. I have to admit at this point that I am as well.
ReplyDeleteTOF - Whatever it is, it must be large b/c it doesn't download over my tin-can and string configuration. ;)
ReplyDeleteOkay, I got it, had to google search it:
ReplyDelete"Should the stock market continue on its current trajectory, the Standard & Poor’s 500 will approach 3,000 within the next two and a half years, analyst Laszlo Birinyi said.
Analyzing bull markets going back to 1962 led the Birinyi and Associates president to call for a 2,854 S&P when the current bull market wraps up on Sept. 4, 2013. That would represent a 125 percent gain from Tuesday’s closing price.
How can he be so precise?
Based on his tracking, Birinyi divides bull markets into four “quartiles,” each lasting 410 days. He labels them as “reluctance,” “digestion or consolidation,” “acceptance” and, finally, “exuberance.”
You guys are suck wimps. Don't you remember the 2012 3,000 calls I bought?
ReplyDeleteLeave me alone. I can't even help my 4th grader with her spelling tests.
Funny, it's not every day but not uncommon either, that I feel all four of those emotions in a single day.
ReplyDeleteMark -- great timing on your UNG short! Congratulations!
ReplyDeleteYeah, come to think of it I do recall your mentioning buying some kind of calls like that but had nearly forgotten about it.
ReplyDeleteSo, what was that about, anyway?
Somehow I get the impression we bruised Mark beyond repair...
ReplyDeleteI can still do partial differential calculus though. And 6 ball juggling. I break both out during a slow party... Don't get invited to many parties lately.
ReplyDeleteAGQ - Hmm, anybody think this chart looks like an entry here?
ReplyDeletePartial differential? Is that like getting half way through and then giving up?
ReplyDeleteCP- Your right. I'm a broken man. My wife has been hammering on me for 17 years, but the final straw was the blatant smack down from my trading friends.
ReplyDeleteI'm emailing my resume to Boehner.
BTW, I think it's shameful the way the news has treated his emotional outbreaks. Give me a break. The guy started out as a janitor, as did I, with 12 siblings. Agree/disagree whatever. Let it go and nail him on the issues if you want. As will I.
Bite me Chicken...
ReplyDeleteIn mathematics, differential calculus is a subfield of calculus concerned with the study of the rates at which quantities change. It is one of the two traditional divisions of calculus, the other being integral calculus.
The primary objects of study in differential calculus are the derivative of a function, related notions such as the differential, and their applications. The derivative of a function at a chosen input value describes the rate of change of the function near that input value. The process of finding a derivative is called differentiation. Geometrically, the derivative at a point equals the slope of the tangent line to the graph of the function at that point. For a real-valued function of a single real variable, the derivative of a function at a point generally determines the best linear approximation to the function at that point.
Differential calculus and integral calculus are connected by the fundamental theorem of calculus, which states that differentiation is the reverse process to integration.
Differentiation has applications to all quantitative disciplines. In physics, the derivative of the displacement of a moving body with respect to time is the velocity of the body, and the derivative of velocity with respect to time is acceleration. Newton's second law of motion states that the derivative of the momentum of a body equals the force applied to the body. The reaction rate of a chemical reaction is a derivative. In operations research, derivatives determine the most efficient ways to transport materials and design factories. By applying game theory, differentiation can provide best strategies for competing corporations[citation needed].
Derivatives are frequently used to find the maxima and minima of a function. Equations involving derivatives are called differential equations and are fundamental in describing natural phenomena. Derivatives and their generalizations appear in many fields of mathematics, such as complex analysis, functional analysis, differential geometry, measure theory and abstract algebra.
No problem, then you get a partial break on the calculus examination, but only if you can complete the following integration:
ReplyDelete2A int(s ds)
Cont...
ReplyDeleteSuppose that x and y are real numbers and that y is a function of x, that is, for every value of x, we can determine the value of y. This relationship is written as: y = f(x). Where f(x) is the equation for a straight line, y = m x + b, where m and b are real numbers that determine the locus of the line in Cartesian coordinates. m is called the slope and is given by:
m={\mbox{change in } y \over \mbox{change in } x} = {\Delta y \over{\Delta x}},
where the symbol Δ (the uppercase form of the Greek letter Delta) is an abbreviation for "change in". It follows that Δy = m Δx.
In linear functions the derivative of f at the point x is the best possible approximation to the idea of the slope of f at the point x. It is usually denoted f'(x) or dy/dx. Together with the value of f at x, the derivative of f determines the best linear approximation, or linearization, of f near the point x. This latter property is usually taken as the definition of the derivative. Derivatives cannot be calculated in nonlinear functions because they do not have a well-defined slope.
A closely related notion is the differential of a function.
The tangent line at (x, f(x))
When x and y are real variables, the derivative of f at x is the slope of the tangent line to the graph of f' at x. Because the source and target of f are one-dimensional, the derivative of f is a real number. If x and y are vectors, then the best linear approximation to the graph of f depends on how f changes in several directions at once. Taking the best linear approximation in a single direction determines a partial derivative, which is usually denoted ∂y/∂x. The linearization of f in all directions at once is called the total derivative. It is a linear transformation, and it determines the hyperplane that most closely approximates the graph of f. This hyperplane is called the osculating hyperplane; it is conceptually the same idea as taking tangent lines in all directions at once.
That's as fast as I can type/think ;)
ReplyDeleteCraig - thx for the feedback on TBT. My stop is now in place.
ReplyDeleteBy the way, does anyone have the Bernanke memo on how high he'll let the 20 yr rates go? I seem to have misplace mine and my bankster buddies won't give me a copy of their's.
Marriage: When woman marries a man hoping he'll change and a man marries a woman hoping she wont?
ReplyDeletemark, there's a lot of big words in there. My boss and I sometimes have differentials and I usually loose.
ReplyDeleteI seem to recall 4% on the 10yr as one of the targets, not sure if this came from Uncle Ben himself...
ReplyDeletePort- 20yr? I must have missed that. From a speech?
ReplyDeleteI notice the spelling is quite good too...
ReplyDeleteTOF's wedding is this weekend. WTH are we going to get him? I'll deal with it up front.
ReplyDeleteI'm serious BTW.
2A int(S ds) -> ?
ReplyDeleteI always have to be nervous about something and today I was wondering what my buddy Ben was thinking about these long term rates rising as I watched TBT trade up. Maybe he really is more focused on deflation/inflation and he's not so concerned about the long term rates.
ReplyDeleteI think he hinted already, at a coupla cases of cheap wine, but I kept my response mum...
ReplyDeleteI really think a steeper curve tends to help banks, it sure pumps MREIT dividends...
ReplyDeleteBen wants jobs, seems he's willing to "allow" some inflation to get 'em. Remember, he and everyone has said repeatedly that jobs recovery has been too slow, this includes Geithner in delivering this message loud and clear, one of the most repeated messages I can recall in recent history.
ReplyDeleteHe's covered on the cheap wine. Shipping would kill us anyway. It's got to be something from us/this. Maybe some blinkers?
ReplyDeleteI think Tudor Pickering lowered their price forecast on Natty for Cal 11 from $5.00 to $4.00 so that makes it official. Every piece of commentary I have more or less keeps natty in the $3.75 to $4.75 range for 2011.
ReplyDeletePort, I sure hope Mark doesn't have another one of those differentials with his wife again!
ReplyDeleteRates. There is a disconnect here. Mortgage rates are generally based on the 10 year. TBT is 20 and longer which I don't think they are worried about NOW.
ReplyDeleteReading all of the above, maybe BC's TOG is really ready to move?
ReplyDeleteDisconnect? No comprendo, where/how?
ReplyDeleteMy Total Pillow should be here tomorrow. That, and my Pajama Pants, and I'm ready to roll.
ReplyDeleteCP- Ben's buying mostly durations from 2-10. TBT is beyond that. Agrees with your LT call on some inflation is expected.
ReplyDeleteI was going to try and google who the banks are lending to but I'm getting too much stuff and it's too late to go through it. I'll ask one of my bankster buddies tomorrow and report back.
ReplyDeleteI do want to warn you guys that I'm starting to get BULLISH. This is more of a "there's never gonna be a correction so I might as well get in" type of feeling and I think that's exactly the type of signal you would be looking for from a retail investor.
For TOF, almost any electonic or remote controlled gizmo would be fun. I bought an indoor gyro from Fry's and I have a lot of fun chasing the kids with it. I can't wait for one that will shoot nurf darts.
Good trading tomorrow.
BC's TOG - I'm not sure I really ever got a clear definition on the expectation, he's been executing on that trade for a couple of years now?
ReplyDeleteSounds kinda like something nebulous that can be used as a sales tool, or something that you trade on constantly, probably no relationship with a buy and hold strategy?
Take a look @ AGQ and provide some feedback for once.
After recent poolback I opened a starter GLD position with 100 shares at 134.40. Since it is below 50 day MA looks like a decent entry point. I will be adding to the position if the pullback continues.
ReplyDelete2-10 is also a lot easier for Ben to unwind. ;) He's no slouch when he's got his thinking cap on.
ReplyDeleteAlright that's some funny stuff up there I just read....ahhh just got done buying wine...went with all tj's...let's see 36 bottles of 2 buck chuck (split reds and white); 5 concannan petite syrah, 5 red diamond cab, 10 trellis chardonnay and 4 bottles of napa river merlot. Only 100 ppl coming and we have 60 bottles of wine, 2 kegs, and 17 handles of vodka/gin/whiskey/rum...I believe that comes out to about 10 drinks a person, including small children and the elderly. Yes, we do have an affinity for drinking
ReplyDeleteIgor, I like it, ease on down the road!
ReplyDeleteBen has to still keep rates low to keep banks solvent. It is priority number one and you would be fighting the fed in my opinion by placing a sizable short against bonds. That and the extreme sentiment against the fed bonds makes me extremely bullish on bonds for an intermediate term. Like wise Gold and PM are close to breaking major support. I will be looking to short leveraged crap miners which is pretty much everyone of them. Once support is broken.
ReplyDeleteTeam, sadly if that was my family we would be passing the hat by 10:00 PM.
ReplyDeleteSounds like a great time! just one piece of advice I know from experience make sure your best man makes a nice classy censored toast. An improper story could put a damper on the festivities real fast. Your family and more importantly her family does not need to know about that trip to Tijuana with Mark's uncle and that feisty burro. I'm just saying......
Bob
RB - I agree, which is why I like metals. Silver looks good for a pop and probably a bunch of other commodities, like molybdenum, for instance, but with silver mining costs @ $6 and the metal trading @ $30, miners are going to make hay.
ReplyDeleteOne more thing before I go. Looks like DBA fits the Landry profile. I'd like to see a bit more of a pullback say to the blue line which is a 34 day EMA.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.screencast.com/t/o81JjJsk
Of course there could be more pain in store for metals, I'm jst saying, inflation is our friend as opposed to deflation, so Ben's gonna let that slide until everyone gives up on holding cash.
ReplyDeleteWhat I wanna know is, have you guys looked at your silver charts???
ReplyDeleteTOF- You counted all of us in that total, right?
ReplyDeleteCP needs to be worried about weather for is flight. I'm pretty damn sure he'll be pissed if the booze runs out.
RB- Sorry, I really don't understand your last post. You want to go long bonds and short crappy miners? Which ones? Most come with 100% margin.
Nice chart port. I see your into the blue thing also. What the hell is wrong with Dun? Who doesn't like Dun? :)
ReplyDeleteAlright guys. I'll see you all at the open.
Mark - Damn right I included you guys in.
ReplyDeleteRB - My bro is my best man and I'm confident he'll be ok with the speech. Man I can't believe it's only 3 days away!
CRAP, three days? RUN!!!!!
ReplyDeleteGood god, i leave for a little while and all hell breaks loose. Gotta give Mark points, I know it's cut and paste but screw it, it's all spelled correctly.
ReplyDeleteI think some yield inflation on the long end could actually help the economy, old people buy bonds and higher yields will get them on the other side if this living hell Ben has put them in stealing their income to save banks.
I just happened to be reading about this very topic today and was wondering where I could recognize that bonds were really going to the bears and TBT was a go for a while.
I brought up a TBT chart and the MA's have all bowtied (flipped over) to the upside which is the earliest indication of a change in trend.
Louise Yamada says when yields are 5.5% on long bonds, but Louise should also know about reading MA's about better than anyone I would think.
I'm not so sure Ben cares about the long end, but that's where the TOG will be first, the banks and Fed play the short(er) end.
I would be watching the TLT like a hawk on the weekly chart. The LT low is around $80.51-$81 from memory, for years. If it is able to break that LT support then it will have free air underneath.
Same for TBT. It can make something like ten bucks but then runs into some overhead at around $50, but I was thinking...these are bonds and bond ETF's, so they merely track the reality of the vigilantes and international loan sharks.
So overhead on the TBT ultra might be purely academic. The rubber meets the road at $80.51 for TLT going back about 8-9 years. It didn't exist before then. If it gets at or below that look out below, you better be extra long TBT.
Everyone talks about rates being extreme at 6%, I think with all this debt and liquidity 6% is overly optimistic, being that I've seen over 20% in my lifetime. Ah give me a 30-40 yr bond at 20% and I'm living on a beach in a foreign country with tall drinks.
I'd also be buying stuff while deflation is da ting. I still have a sling of 3/4" T-111 I bought for $8 a sheet in my barn. So buying hard goods that keep and are useful is also a good inflation strategy. Remember the 70's-80's when everyone had fuel storage on their place and 2nd was wearing patched bell bottoms?
I bet at least one of those makes a return. Thanks Ben.
Mark,
ReplyDeleteNo you understood perfectly. It is basicly a long dollar play. Gold goes down because dollar goes up. Bonds go up because the market goes down when the dollar goes up. I think this a correction with in a longer trend which is fine since I am a swing trader. I will only enter the trade on confirmation and on strength. See charts. Risk reward ratio on TLT is a play I look for. Stop for a dollar risk at 90.70 or so Scale out 1/2 at 93.50 ish. http://fsc.bz/AEV #WORDEN. Gold looks sick already. I need to see a candle completely below the 50 dma.http://fsc.bz/AEW #WORDEN. Then i will look for a technically week miner to short. The reason is miners are like 2x, 3x gld in volatile times. Like wise though since I am market neutral type guy. I will go long SLW if it holds its 50 consolidates and then breaks the 20.
Hope thats clear.
Lets see if I can get a chart to work. Lame
ReplyDeletehttp://www.freestockcharts.com/tweets/?chart=8ac4bd9d-2432-4883-b99a-6bdc5bba8912&refURL=http://fsc.bz:81/AEW
http://www.freestockcharts.com/tweets/?chart=6d585a68-2c4c-4f02-94f0-157a752171b1&refURL=http://fsc.bz:81/AEV
new post
ReplyDelete