For no particular reason, I had this song playing in the background off and on during the day. And what a day it was! Every time I checked the tickers the indexes were higher.
COW - Looks like it could roll over, but it might have a little more life left in it if you're already long or can dart in and out like a barn swallow and not a Buceros Rhinoceros.
CADC might have made a third higher low since September, and if it goes up today, then the chance of last Friday indeed being the low will rise markedly. In that case, CADC will become a great buy. Hence, I am placing a buy stop limit order on it for 1000 shares (small starter position) at $4.75/$4.77.
Cheryl is from deep SE Missouri, the bootheel. She liked to play in St. Louis and was a favorite of thousands. Here in central Illinois the snow and wind continue more furious than before. First time I have experienced thunder and lightning with a winter storm. Living in St Louis in 1982 I experienced a 20 inch snowfall but it was not a blizzard. More of a stationary dump. That closed down schools for a week. STL was spared the worst of this one but had a close call with ice.
We had thunder and lightening in our most recent rain/sleet/snow storm. This year feels just like the 60's all over again to me, although I don't recall ever having experienced T&L in winter even back then.
Well it had to be on the verge of Bankruptcy at some point. Right? It was a $40 dollar stock. Team and me had conversations about it years ago on CC. It was one of his Idea stocks and I think i even owned it for a trade back then. Well maybe it was some other truckstop stock. is there another one? Anyway are you looking to go long? that book to stock ratio is just stupid.
I had thought about going long, but now I'm beginning to think most everything's priced in except for economic recovery, and BK is certainly pushed out much further now.
I just thought it would be interesting to see if I could learn a thing or two about it, really, and I bet it's back on the table for some traders now.
Heck, I probably won't take a position but it doesn't cost much to watch.
Damn I'm beat. Haggling over a few hundred thousand $'s with clients really sucks. 5 Fing hours. They signed of course, knowing full well the changes were fair. Such a stupid Fing pissing match...Well, I'm dry.
I believe they would. I am surprised they don't own the property. Because there seems to be value in the complex, because other vendors lease space like fast food places. Maybe HPT would be a way to play it.
Gold - I still stick with my $1570 call though, it's just that I'd rather put money on molybdenum going to $20. Even there, it's a long way from hitting new highs. TC is a pure play there if you don't want GMO's permit risk, which I'm pretty confident with anyway, especially since it's still all house money.
Try this link, the auction is over, so I'm not sure if any link can work. I didn't make the reserve by a wide margin but I was high bidder, so hopefully I can haggle a deal.
man, i was looking at the range today in RAS and it looks like i lucked out pounding it right at the open. my POS broker for my 401k only allows orders of 5k shares at a time so i wasted about 5 minutes just constantly entering the order and then hitting submit and doing it over again. it's really an annoying process and i wish my company would just go with Schwab again. oh well.
PM's - Ah yes, it's possible they may be consolidating I suppose. GLD/SLV have been moving basically sideways for 3 months now while supposedly foreign inflation is roaring....
I think though, as foreign currencies rise against the dollar, they obtain more buying power across the board and US equities prices look attractive. Also, they would be tempted to take any gains if the dollar were to rise, perhaps moving them into gov debt and PM's?
You know I'm continually trying to think things through...
Right now, I'm just cautious. Common sense comes in handy here- the market's come a long way. I'll jump in on a hard sell-off, but I just can't see holding for extended periods right now.
Yet again, it's not the news, it's the reaction to the news.
And, what a reaction! The Ps banged out new multi-year highs. The Quack isn't too far behind and Russ gained over 2%.
The sectors with a few caveats continue to look great.
Big Dave's staying bullish as long as this market can continue to climb the worry.
Since the methodology requires a pullback, I'm not seeing lot of new longs setting up. Therefore, manage existing positions: honor your stops and trail and scale as offered.
Private-Sector Payrolls newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5217 comments) on Wed, 02/02/2011 - 09:19 #78846 http://tinyurl.com/45dpete
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — Private-sector employment rose in January, and “strength was evident” in all major industries and sizes of business, according to Automatic Data Processing Inc.’s employment report released Wednesday.
The ADP report showed that private-sector employment rose 187,000, with the service-producing sector gaining 166,000 and the goods-producing sector increasing 21,000.
Employment rose 97,000 at small businesses, 79,000 at medium businesses and 11,000 at large businesses.
For December, ADP reported that private payrolls gained 247,000, compared with a prior estimate of 297,000.
Long some FCX puts on the last pullback. In Feb $54.50's at $3.37 average. I think the stock goes back up to highs and idiot traders buy more because the price is "lower" after the split. Also, copper is at YTD highs again.
Not at all TOF. MOG is on the board at PCAR and although I haven't talked to him about it in a while, I'd know what he would say. Anyway, for me, it's really a way to park some unused cash and look for some EEM exposure.
I know BBY is a dog and the chart looks ill, but I've managed to trade this thing successfully 3 times in the past month. If people ever come around to the stock, which I think they should given a strengthening economy and a cheap valuation (10 times trailing earnings, 9 times trailing FCF), then the stock could be a really good investment at these prices. It also offers a 1.8% dividend.
Just a quick boots on the ground comment about CREE. LED lights are really starting to make a move into homes here. Yeah, I do high end, but the prices have gotten a lot more reasonable. Also, in Ca. a lot of new homes are mandated to use energy effic. lighting as part of the permit process.
Egypt - Rather than send all those planes in to evacuate vacationers and tourists from Egypt, the US should send a helicopter to Cairo and extract Mubarak.
I think I need to look into upgrading my internet connection in the near future if I'm gonna keep doing this, so I can integrate statistical analysis into my decision making process.
Truthfully, I hate being on line all the time though, never intended on doing that again... Didn't think the S&P would collapse to 666 either, I figured the FED would take action a bit sooner than they did.
Yea, if I could get a live stream into Excel, I'd implement a string of formulas for real time calculation. It'd be cool if I could just get past that first hurdle.
CP - no problemo my friend. Outside of selling it last week, I've basically just been sitting and watching the action. Even though I got lucky and re-entered at a better price, I was wrong to sell this. There is really no reason to be selling the shares right now. The property markets are improving, rental rates are rising, occupancy rates are rising, the stock looks great technically, and most importantly, they are starting to pay dividends again. Ultimately, this should be a long term hold. If you want to put stops in the stock, I'd suggest putting them about 15% below the current price because the stock is volatile. I expect it to be very volatile around earnings next Thursday.
RAS - YHOO indicates earnings Thur 2/10 BMO, finviz 2/13. I'm going to assume YHOO's 2/10 is correct, and I also think recent high is a reasonable goal between now and then.
No improvement will be punished without appeal.
Kyle - Thx for links, I'll look over the CC post during tonight's homework session.
Just sold my SDS even and picked up DUG 30.76. If I was salivating over XLE short yesterday, I think its time to put some money on the line w/ it up yet another .32 today.
All right you guys, I am tried of watching the action in RAS from the sidelines, and so I have just purchased 1000 shares just to be in the game. Putting aside all my prejudices against the financial sector, RAS is making steady higher lows since March 2009. Each of those lows has been only a little higher than the previous one, and all the spikes it had in between were almost completely reversed. If history is any guide, the current spike that started in December 2010 will also be reversed and RAS should drop to around $2, which will be the time to load up on it. So my plan now is to scale into RAS gradually, buying incrementally more shares (2K, 4K shares, etc.) as RAS goes down toward $2. If it never drops materially below the current level, then so be it -- I'll watch my 1K shares grow to the sky. :)
CP - There's a lot of noise in the P/E. I wouldn't pay a ton of attention to it. Rather, I'm focusing on the book value (currently at over $9/share) and at the above positives I mentioned. Some people are skeptical of the book value, but note that they recently sold a property at above the carrying value on their books so there may be more value to it than people are giving it.
RAS - Actually, since RTH looks pretty strong, I would think that should trickle into commercial real estate and it doesn't look like there's any recent institutional dumping of RAS that I can identify.
RAS - I've got a bid set up right under recent lows to double my position should someone get cute and try to domino the stops. I'll keep this as a day order and hope nothing goes haywire AH.
25% increase - No wonder then why RAS has been in rally mode, resumption of div supports the trend, too many positive indicators to ignore, I need some negative ones to ponder.
Anyway, we may have arrived to the party slightly late but seems like it's just getting going. Aside from the last 10 min bout of profit taking, what's not to like?
Mark - am looking at some fib lvls on PCAR...starting w/ 39.27 from July 08 and going to 58.06 from Dec EOY highs on weekly 5yr (39.27-46.44-48.86-50.88-58.06)
Am short May 44.7 puts...plan to work up from there...FWIW...
Copper set another new high, so did tin, on supposed consumption and forecasts. Base/PM metals divergence widens even more, a red flag for metals traders. FCX/TC far off their highs, still hanging in there. Moly has yet to join base metals party, still $17, leaving upside o' plenty, in comparison.
Good for moly:
"World Stainless Steel Output Hits Record High In 2010; Another Expected in 2011: MEPS (Kitco News, Montréal, 02/02/2011)"
I read somewhere that Nickle supplys are more than adequate, so lower nickle prices may be holding moly back (In some instances, these two compete in stainless alloy manufacture).
The blizzard left only 15 inches here but tonight will be brutal at negative nine. I bought COW as replacement for some stocks sold. Still have much cash awaiting opportunity.
TRID - Reports tomorrow after earnings, this could be interesting. I'm not expecting much, but you never know, it's beat down pretty good and looks like it's down for the count. CEO was just sacked and there's a management revolving door still spinning but they make a lot of those TV chip sets in cable tuner boxes and video streaming machines.
David - That's what I call a SWAG, and I understand the logic completely!
ReplyDeleteCOW - Looks like it could roll over, but it might have a little more life left in it if you're already long or can dart in and out like a barn swallow and not a Buceros Rhinoceros.
ReplyDeleteI'm the latter.
SPX and NDQ both up well over 1.5%. OAKBX closes up +0.57%- that's less than yesterday!
ReplyDeleteI just reviewed my 2011 'forecast,' and man- it's pretty damned close!
ReplyDeleteI have to say the Steelers win by 10.
I'll bet money the Redskins don't win this one.
ReplyDeleteCP: what is SWAG?
ReplyDeleteCADC might have made a third higher low since September, and if it goes up today, then the chance of last Friday indeed being the low will rise markedly. In that case, CADC will become a great buy. Hence, I am placing a buy stop limit order on it for 1000 shares (small starter position) at $4.75/$4.77.
ReplyDeleteCP WHAT DOES a Gaseous stomach and farmers fungal lung disorder have in common?
ReplyDeleteSWAG - Scientific Wild-Ass Guess!
ReplyDeleteCabin fever might cause stomach cramps and difficulty breathing, maybe just a strange way of describing symptoms of claustrophobia.
Honestly though, I can't lay claim to experiencing any of those symptoms as described, but it sounded good at the time. ;)
Or perhaps if the gaseous condition were severe and quarters tight, it might spiral into an aggravated respiratory event....
ReplyDeleteCheryl is from deep SE Missouri, the bootheel. She liked to play in St. Louis and was a favorite of thousands. Here in central Illinois the snow and wind continue more furious than before. First time I have experienced thunder and lightning with a winter storm. Living in St Louis in 1982 I experienced a 20 inch snowfall but it was not a blizzard. More of a stationary dump. That closed down schools for a week. STL was spared the worst of this one but had a close call with ice.
ReplyDeleteConcerning the funny spores, they may have some relationship with asphyxiation, spores are fungal in nature.
ReplyDeleteThe entire passage was completely convoluted...
We had thunder and lightening in our most recent rain/sleet/snow storm. This year feels just like the 60's all over again to me, although I don't recall ever having experienced T&L in winter even back then.
ReplyDeleteThis winter feels just like the mid 60's to me.
ReplyDeleteTA - Wow, that was a move...
ReplyDeleteTA ya they must of raised the price on the trucker shower stalls.
ReplyDeleteTA - Low debt, traded to cash on hand today, and has a book around 16, twice current price.
ReplyDeleteWhat's not to like about this one?
TA - Looks like they received a ~$50M reduction to their bottom line in the form of a rental concession from HPT, a landlord.
ReplyDeleteHPT - They apparently own, or did own, 1.54M shares of TA, so the value of their position increase by a factor of 2x today, about $7M.
ReplyDeleteWell it had to be on the verge of Bankruptcy at some point. Right? It was a $40 dollar stock. Team and me had conversations about it years ago on CC. It was one of his Idea stocks and I think i even owned it for a trade back then. Well maybe it was some other truckstop stock. is there another one? Anyway are you looking to go long? that book to stock ratio is just stupid.
ReplyDeleteTA - They are still showing a large loss, even though over half of it was eliminated today.
ReplyDeleteI had thought about going long, but now I'm beginning to think most everything's priced in except for economic recovery, and BK is certainly pushed out much further now.
ReplyDeleteI just thought it would be interesting to see if I could learn a thing or two about it, really, and I bet it's back on the table for some traders now.
Heck, I probably won't take a position but it doesn't cost much to watch.
Robear > yep that was the one. I owned TA for a little while and made some coin on it. They get a majority of their profits from selling gas, right?
ReplyDeleteDamn I'm beat. Haggling over a few hundred thousand $'s with clients really sucks. 5 Fing hours. They signed of course, knowing full well the changes were fair. Such a stupid Fing pissing match...Well, I'm dry.
ReplyDeleteYou know what, my favorite saying until the day I die will be, 'Then just don't do it'.
ReplyDeleteI believe they would. I am surprised they don't own the property. Because there seems to be value in the complex, because other vendors lease space like fast food places. Maybe HPT would be a way to play it.
ReplyDeleteGood lord, I traded TA here after I was released from CC!
ReplyDeleteTA was spun off from HPT, I guess for tax purposes. Sounds good enough for gov. work...
ReplyDeleteThat is a good one - "Then just don't do it" - Kinda turns things around, don't it?
ReplyDeleteI'm beat, time to cut some Z's. Maybe I'll get up early enough to watch RAS retake $3? ;)
ReplyDeleteGuys, the GLD chart is just plain fugly.
ReplyDeleteCP- After all of that today, they are going tomorrow to pick up their new special order Jag. And I have to smile the whole time.
TA - I bet the profits come from selling Diesel, but they sell merchandise as well. Both of those should be turning back up.
ReplyDeleteI dumped my ABX today, gold really makes me nervous in an economy that appears to be recovering.
ReplyDeleteI had thought about a Jag, until they started looking like a Taurus.
I made a bid on a fun little hooptie today, I've been wanting one of these a long, long time:
http://cgi.ebay.com/ebaymotors/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&item=220731889591&ssPageName=STRK:MEDWX:IT
CP- Try that link again. No workie.
ReplyDeleteGold - I still stick with my $1570 call though, it's just that I'd rather put money on molybdenum going to $20. Even there, it's a long way from hitting new highs. TC is a pure play there if you don't want GMO's permit risk, which I'm pretty confident with anyway, especially since it's still all house money.
ReplyDeleteTry this link, the auction is over, so I'm not sure if any link can work. I didn't make the reserve by a wide margin but I was high bidder, so hopefully I can haggle a deal.
ReplyDeletehttp://cgi.ebay.com/ebaymotors/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&item=220731889591
Else, maybe a search on the item #? (22073189591)
Oops, I left an 8 out of there.
ReplyDeleteAt least I can tell it's a duster CP. GL on the bid!
ReplyDelete2nd's been asleep for 4 hrs.
ReplyDeleteSometime near the open boys...
ReplyDeleteAh, the guy called a duster, it's really a '67 Barracuda.
ReplyDeleteThis link should work:
ReplyDeletehttp://cgi.ebay.com/ebaymotors/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&_rdc=1&item=220731889591&ru=http%3A%2F%2Fshop.ebay.com%3A80%2F%3F_from%3DR40%26_trksid%3Dm570%26_nkw%3D220731889591%26_sacat%3DSee-All-Categories%26_fvi%3D1&viewitem=
man, i was looking at the range today in RAS and it looks like i lucked out pounding it right at the open. my POS broker for my 401k only allows orders of 5k shares at a time so i wasted about 5 minutes just constantly entering the order and then hitting submit and doing it over again. it's really an annoying process and i wish my company would just go with Schwab again. oh well.
ReplyDeletechicken here's to a lower open in RAS that lets you hop on at good prices too. although if we go to $4 soon then these prices work too.
ReplyDeleteRAS at open was a great move. Closed at high though, so that made me happy. ;)
ReplyDeleteTOF - I'm in today @ $2.69, hit the trigger just in time to catch some of it.
ReplyDeleteDon't tell my broker about a 5k share limit, they'll set theirs @ 2.5k just trying to beat the competition.
ReplyDeleteoh didn't realize you got in. nice.
ReplyDeleteby the way, check out the 1 year chart of BYD and RAS...they're almost identical
http://peakwatch.typepad.com/.a/6a00d83452403c69e201347fc1ea86970c-800wi
ReplyDeleteInteresting similarities.
Morning Thought - If inflation throughout the world is such a problem, then why aren't PM's at least keeping up with base metals?
ReplyDeleteCP- Maybe they've run ahead of themselves? Gold/silver were on a streak through January.
ReplyDeleteOIH - It seems this instrument would be a decent vehicle for going long crude. It even has the benefit of a dividend.
ReplyDeletePM's - Ah yes, it's possible they may be consolidating I suppose. GLD/SLV have been moving basically sideways for 3 months now while supposedly foreign inflation is roaring....
ReplyDeleteI think though, as foreign currencies rise against the dollar, they obtain more buying power across the board and US equities prices look attractive. Also, they would be tempted to take any gains if the dollar were to rise, perhaps moving them into gov debt and PM's?
You know I'm continually trying to think things through...
Right now, I'm just cautious. Common sense comes in handy here- the market's come a long way. I'll jump in on a hard sell-off, but I just can't see holding for extended periods right now.
ReplyDeleteI shouldn't admit this for various reasons, but it's going to be in the 50's here today.
ReplyDelete2nd - I agree, but in my case I wouldn't mind adding to any of my positions and they still have a long way to go before reaching their potential.
ReplyDeleteI intend on using whipsaw in order to take advantage of short-term bargains, taking on more risk at those opportunities.
For today, I anticipate we'll probably retest 1300 from above and if buying comes in, we should close with a gain.
ReplyDeleteI would reopen CSCO @ 21. BAC @ 13.85. AA/GE are at 52-wk highs.
ReplyDeleteLandry-
ReplyDeleteRandom Thoughts:
Yet again, it's not the news, it's the reaction to the news.
And, what a reaction! The Ps banged out new multi-year highs. The Quack isn't too far behind and Russ gained over 2%.
The sectors with a few caveats continue to look great.
Big Dave's staying bullish as long as this market can continue to climb the worry.
Since the methodology requires a pullback, I'm not seeing lot of new longs setting up. Therefore, manage existing positions: honor your stops and trail and scale as offered.
PLOW - Anyone like this one here? Kinda looks like we're a little late to the party but ya never know...
ReplyDeletehttp://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-private-sector-jobs-up-187000-adp-2011-02-02
ReplyDeleteCSCO - What happens when they announce an acquisition that plunks them down right smack in the middle of the cloud?
ReplyDeletePrivate-Sector Payrolls newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5217 comments) on Wed, 02/02/2011 - 09:19 #78846
ReplyDeletehttp://tinyurl.com/45dpete
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — Private-sector employment rose in January, and “strength was evident” in all major industries and sizes of business, according to Automatic Data Processing Inc.’s employment report released Wednesday.
The ADP report showed that private-sector employment rose 187,000, with the service-producing sector gaining 166,000 and the goods-producing sector increasing 21,000.
Employment rose 97,000 at small businesses, 79,000 at medium businesses and 11,000 at large businesses.
For December, ADP reported that private payrolls gained 247,000, compared with a prior estimate of 297,000.
Cloud nine, baby, cloud nine.
ReplyDeletePigs will be flying.
ReplyDeleteJNJ - There's a pullback there just begging for an add
ReplyDeleteProduction gold/silver miners should have a great balance sheet this quarter.
ReplyDeleteAnybody have that S&P Mapquest link bookmarked?
ReplyDeleteUS officials were caught completely off guard by Egyptian uprise?
ReplyDeleteI can believe that. Obviously the citizens were left in the cold when decisions were made, no wonder they rebel.
Eww...terrible call on MWA...sorry for leading you into that one Mark. The smart move was to wait until after earnings to open a starter position.
ReplyDeleteI've been buying some in the money June/March BBY Calls this morning. Bought some $30 Junes at $5.4 and $32 Mays at $3.2
APA running.
ReplyDeletePCAR @ 51.79
ReplyDeleteLong some FCX puts on the last pullback. In Feb $54.50's at $3.37 average. I think the stock goes back up to highs and idiot traders buy more because the price is "lower" after the split. Also, copper is at YTD highs again.
ReplyDeleteSold 2k shs MWA at $3.86 that I bought yesterday at $4.39. Yeesh...
ReplyDeletePCAR is interesting Mark.
ReplyDeleteMWA - TOF, Looks like you'll have to refund your finders fee from Mark... ;)
ReplyDeletetof- At least you're not talking about 10,000 shares of OREX.
ReplyDelete2nd - Yeah. Just never expected to lose $1k as quick as I did on a $8.8k investment.
ReplyDeleteWow look at LNG go.
ReplyDeleteNot at all TOF. MOG is on the board at PCAR and although I haven't talked to him about it in a while, I'd know what he would say. Anyway, for me, it's really a way to park some unused cash and look for some EEM exposure.
ReplyDeleteWow, all three of my holding are green! That wouldn't have happened if I hadn't horse traded my old ABX plug for an RAS quarter horse.
ReplyDelete$3 Come on, baby!
I know BBY is a dog and the chart looks ill, but I've managed to trade this thing successfully 3 times in the past month. If people ever come around to the stock, which I think they should given a strengthening economy and a cheap valuation (10 times trailing earnings, 9 times trailing FCF), then the stock could be a really good investment at these prices. It also offers a 1.8% dividend.
ReplyDeleteJust a quick boots on the ground comment about CREE. LED lights are really starting to make a move into homes here. Yeah, I do high end, but the prices have gotten a lot more reasonable. Also, in Ca. a lot of new homes are mandated to use energy effic. lighting as part of the permit process.
ReplyDeleteJust a thought.
RAS- S1 is 2.83 and S2 is 2.91 today.
ReplyDeleteBEXP just broke S2. Can this one really get to $46? Long 1,500 @ 24.78.
ReplyDeleteRAS - Thanks for S#'s, CREE sounds like a bright idea to me.
ReplyDeleteJNJ - Cheap here?
ReplyDeleteMark > wouldn't those be R1 and R2? S stands for support right? BTW where do you get that info?
ReplyDeleteWe've had a series of disappointing Friday's lately, is it about time for a good one soon?
ReplyDeleteLooks like this is a range day...with a late day surge of about 5 points on the S&P, of course.
ReplyDeletewow. Look at ADES...I can't believe I almost loaded the boat at $5.
ReplyDeleteprobably the only time i wish i had ades.
ReplyDeleteEgypt - Rather than send all those planes in to evacuate vacationers and tourists from Egypt, the US should send a helicopter to Cairo and extract Mubarak.
ReplyDeleteCOW - Running out of gas...
ReplyDeleteADES - Looks like a clean coal play. Great for the repackaging and repricing of the same old dirty power generation. Looks like institutional selling?
ReplyDeleteSold my FCX puts at $3.15. Took a $200 loss on that. I think I need to stick to the RAS money train.
ReplyDeletetof - For Pivot Points try
ReplyDeletehttp://www.freestockcharts.com/
Select Pivot Points under 'Add Indicator'
Under 'Settings' select 'More Scaling' if needed
S1/S2 - I assumed these were upper and lower limits of standard deviation? Maybe +/-one or +/- two std. deviations?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.earnforex.com/pivot-points-calculator
ReplyDeleteI think I need to look into upgrading my internet connection in the near future if I'm gonna keep doing this, so I can integrate statistical analysis into my decision making process.
ReplyDeleteTruthfully, I hate being on line all the time though, never intended on doing that again... Didn't think the S&P would collapse to 666 either, I figured the FED would take action a bit sooner than they did.
Unions are incensed Democratic party chose Charlotte, N.C. a city that doesn't have union labor monopoly of hospitality/hotel sector. ;)
ReplyDeleteKyle - I like that pivot point calculator, thanks.
ReplyDeleteIt really would be cool if you could just type in a ticker and hit go...
cp - Here is a Fib PP calculator I sometimes use
ReplyDeletehttp://www.mataf.net/en/tools/03-03-fibonacci-pivot
I use Interactive Brokers and you can select the PPs under 'Add Study'
Yea, if I could get a live stream into Excel, I'd implement a string of formulas for real time calculation. It'd be cool if I could just get past that first hurdle.
ReplyDeleteRAS - TOF - I'm glad you called attention to this one yesterday, thanks for doing that...
ReplyDeletecp - Interesting idea. There was someone over on CC 'Northern Otoko' that put some Market Analysis Excel out there...
ReplyDeletehttp://caracommunity.com/content/bill-cara%E2%80%99s-blog-april-9-2010-see-post-close-report
comment #60646, 60651, 60655
Might could use that as a starting point...
CP - no problemo my friend. Outside of selling it last week, I've basically just been sitting and watching the action. Even though I got lucky and re-entered at a better price, I was wrong to sell this. There is really no reason to be selling the shares right now. The property markets are improving, rental rates are rising, occupancy rates are rising, the stock looks great technically, and most importantly, they are starting to pay dividends again. Ultimately, this should be a long term hold. If you want to put stops in the stock, I'd suggest putting them about 15% below the current price because the stock is volatile. I expect it to be very volatile around earnings next Thursday.
ReplyDeleteRAS - YHOO indicates earnings Thur 2/10 BMO, finviz 2/13. I'm going to assume YHOO's 2/10 is correct, and I also think recent high is a reasonable goal between now and then.
ReplyDeleteNo improvement will be punished without appeal.
Kyle - Thx for links, I'll look over the CC post during tonight's homework session.
Just sold my SDS even and picked up DUG 30.76. If I was salivating over XLE short yesterday, I think its time to put some money on the line w/ it up yet another .32 today.
ReplyDeleteCP - Looks like RAS might test prior highs today actually.
ReplyDeleteLong BTU again at $64.5
2/10 is also GT earnings, and FWD-P/E is still reasonable... Should be checking out the others.
ReplyDeleteRAS - Technically, looks like a good exit point here if you aren't keen on the immediate future.
ReplyDeleteAll right you guys, I am tried of watching the action in RAS from the sidelines, and so I have just purchased 1000 shares just to be in the game. Putting aside all my prejudices against the financial sector, RAS is making steady higher lows since March 2009. Each of those lows has been only a little higher than the previous one, and all the spikes it had in between were almost completely reversed. If history is any guide, the current spike that started in December 2010 will also be reversed and RAS should drop to around $2, which will be the time to load up on it. So my plan now is to scale into RAS gradually, buying incrementally more shares (2K, 4K shares, etc.) as RAS goes down toward $2. If it never drops materially below the current level, then so be it -- I'll watch my 1K shares grow to the sky. :)
ReplyDeleteCP - There's a lot of noise in the P/E. I wouldn't pay a ton of attention to it. Rather, I'm focusing on the book value (currently at over $9/share) and at the above positives I mentioned. Some people are skeptical of the book value, but note that they recently sold a property at above the carrying value on their books so there may be more value to it than people are giving it.
ReplyDeleteSold CREE @ flat. Hit the pipe on MWA. Want to concentrate on PCAR.
ReplyDeleteYes, S= support, R= resistance. TOF, I'll post the formula I use that is part of my charts tonight.
RAS - Actually, since RTH looks pretty strong, I would think that should trickle into commercial real estate and it doesn't look like there's any recent institutional dumping of RAS that I can identify.
ReplyDeleteStill looks good to me, could be super good.
They just were talking (CNBC) about the recent data on commercial real estate report. Roughly +25% increase in price over 2010.
ReplyDeleteRAS - I've got a bid set up right under recent lows to double my position should someone get cute and try to domino the stops. I'll keep this as a day order and hope nothing goes haywire AH.
ReplyDelete25% increase - No wonder then why RAS has been in rally mode, resumption of div supports the trend, too many positive indicators to ignore, I need some negative ones to ponder.
ReplyDeleteAnyway, we may have arrived to the party slightly late but seems like it's just getting going. Aside from the last 10 min bout of profit taking, what's not to like?
RAS - I'd like to see that high again today but it feels like the momo guys are done.
ReplyDeleteOK, got the Okey Dokey from MOG just now on PCAR for a LT investment. Added @ 50.51. 400 shares total.
ReplyDelete$49.10 would be my next buy point for PCAR.
ReplyDeleteAdded to my BTU at $64.6 in my trading account.
ReplyDeleteMark - am looking at some fib lvls on PCAR...starting w/ 39.27 from July 08 and going to 58.06 from Dec EOY highs on weekly 5yr
ReplyDelete(39.27-46.44-48.86-50.88-58.06)
Am short May 44.7 puts...plan to work up from there...FWIW...
Thanks Kyle!
ReplyDeleteCopper set another new high, so did tin, on supposed consumption and forecasts. Base/PM metals divergence widens even more, a red flag for metals traders. FCX/TC far off their highs, still hanging in there. Moly has yet to join base metals party, still $17, leaving upside o' plenty, in comparison.
ReplyDeleteGood for moly:
"World Stainless Steel Output Hits Record High In 2010; Another Expected in 2011: MEPS (Kitco News, Montréal, 02/02/2011)"
I read somewhere that Nickle supplys are more than adequate, so lower nickle prices may be holding moly back (In some instances, these two compete in stainless alloy manufacture).
ReplyDeletesupplies, or surplies!, whatever...
ReplyDelete10 days forward, 9 days backward? That would make it easier to day-trade the short side.
ReplyDeleteThe blizzard left only 15 inches here but tonight will be brutal at negative nine. I bought COW as replacement for some stocks sold. Still have much cash awaiting opportunity.
ReplyDeleteNAV - Deutsch bags pumped this one a few days ago and now it's fallen.
ReplyDeleteYRCW - Is this old POS gonna get up off the mat any time soon?
Maybe the transports need some review, TA just swung a deal. Is some upside coming to that sector or am I picking up on some kind of pump/dump vibe?
PLOW - Actually kicked up today...
ReplyDeleteillini - Is that light fluffy stuff or heavy wet and icy? Brrrr, -9 would do me damage for sure.
ReplyDeleteYRCW - Reports Friday before open, wonder if transport is about to give us a beauty day or a haircut?
ReplyDeleteTRID - Reports tomorrow after earnings, this could be interesting. I'm not expecting much, but you never know, it's beat down pretty good and looks like it's down for the count. CEO was just sacked and there's a management revolving door still spinning but they make a lot of those TV chip sets in cable tuner boxes and video streaming machines.
ReplyDeleteI'm gonna be watching...
KCAP - "Kohlberg Capital Pays Off Its Debt"
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