Saturday, February 26, 2011
2/26/11 Turbo Tax Blues
I set a new record for 'doing taxes' this year. Put in around 4 hours Friday + 3 hours today. What I've done the past several years is use a combination of Turbo Tax (the program is free of charge until you reach the point where it populates/generates forms) + forms downloaded from irs.gov, fill in the numbers, then hand the entire binder over to our CPA for double-checks/validation. She usually does a good job of finding things I've missed. For those of you with kids in college, there are many expenses that can be deducted or credited: tuition (1098-T), books, materials, and computers (if required for school).
Time to hit the mean streets for a little fun.
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how many of us are real here?
ReplyDeleteSubmitted by davefairtex (2687 comments) on Sat, 02/26/2011 - 04:27 #80500
As opposed to being semi-automated corporate shills doing sell-side or pro-HB&B marketing. A thought-provoking question. Here's an article that talks about current USAF plans to build an in-house astro-turfing capability. How many organizations out there currently have such things in place, and are operating here today?
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/georgemonbio...
Re: how many of us are real here?/ Astro-turfing newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5284 comments) on Sat, 02/26/2011 - 14:02 #80518 (in reply to #80500)
ReplyDeletedave- It doesn't surprise me. Life is full of power plays, and this is just the same old same old using new technology. As a group we're probably able to separate the wheat from the chaff.
That said, there are extremely sophisticated/perceptive minds capable of fooling most of the people most of the time- good examples abound on the tube. What does most of them in is the dishonesty that lays their souls to waste- rather than serving as rocks for their children/grandchildren/communities, they resemble the empty shells shopping for meaning on Rodeo Drive.
From the post-close, which I basically agree with:
ReplyDelete'We still believe the S&P is due for a 5-8% correction, currently only having declined -3% from multi-year highs hit last week. Even during rip roaring Bull phases prices occasionally get too far ahead of the fundamentals and need some time backing and filling. Topping is a process regardless of the time frame; after a lengthy jaunt higher markets need time to digest their gains, recharging the batteries for the next upward assault.
There are plenty of charts that look toppy, the current price below a declining 20- and a flattening 50-day moving average. If the S&P takes out 1270 there is a decent probability 1220-1230 could be seen in short order.
Minor resistance now comes in around 1325, with the recent high of 1345 and a higher projection of 1360 still upside targets.'
Topping is a process: Here is an interview of Paul Desmond regarding topping. A very good researcher.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.ritholtz.com/blog/category/technical-analysis/
You have to go to the link, its too long
A better link to Desmond article.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/02/qa-paul-desmond-of-lowrys-part-ii/#more-62772
JNJ - Really looks sad, has underperformed the market in a big way. Wonder if/when/ever they can overcome the stigma of poor quality control?
ReplyDeletePer Stephanie Pomboy from barrons online.
ReplyDeleteLet's move on to your recent research note, which is titled "Springing Leaks." What are some of your key points?
I think the Fed isn't anywhere close to tightening. But the markets have pulled forward expectations of tightening from the November Fed meeting to the September meeting, on the back of these stronger data points. But it is almost laughable to think that the Fed can tighten in this environment. I expect that, at the end of June, unless you have had one of the two things I mentioned -- a spontaneous increase in consumer borrowing or an increase in job creation -- the Fed will be forced to extend QE [quantitative easing], because it needs to arrest this back-up in mortgage rates before it starts to get into those ARM resets. And it also needs to mitigate the blow from higher commodity prices.
The whole article is worth reading.
T3D - Thanks, I don't think the economy is able to stand on it's own two feet yet either, I expect the FED won't raise rates until well after employment begins to improve, if ever.
ReplyDeleteLow rates to eternity, inflation will be limited by demand and demand will be limited by availability of food and energy, both of which appear to be in short supply given current circumstances.
I'll read the article today.
I hope you guys been practicing your non-rotic dialect if you're still hoping to locate a deal on a lobster dinner.
ReplyDeleteJNJ under 60 seems in bargain territory but so do MRK & LLY. I went long MRK @ 32.31 last week. Call it a div play on the premiere drug research company. (MRK is not reducing R&D contrasted to PFE who is giving up on their ability to discover}. Merck has a good pipeline.
ReplyDeleteMRK - Yep, that does look like a better choice than JNJ.
ReplyDeleteMRK is in an account where I hold longer term, hopefully. But who knows? The track record has not been good over the last ten years as can be said for many blue chips. My account record in that regard borders on pitiful to holding on.
ReplyDeleteI say reality is we are on the same or worse glidepath as Japan, but decades behind them...
ReplyDeletehttp://www.zerohedge.com/article/reggie-middleton-cnbc%E2%80%99s-fast-money-discussing-hopium-real-estate
I honestly wonder about all of the legacy big pharma plays. The pipe line seems to be getting tighter and tighter with pattens coming off line.
ReplyDeletePerhaps a large basket of single drug plays would pay off better???
Either way, this is a really tough area to play.
Wouldn't a better divy play be be energy pipeline mlp's???
ReplyDeleteFracking - Mark, this makes more sense to me than water injection and the associated cleanup:
ReplyDelete"Non Water-Based Fracking Technology"
http://seekingalpha.com/article/251422-gasfrac-non-water-based-fracking-technology-should-handsomely-reward-investors?source=yahoo
Public Service Announcement...
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NxJMDzNZWsE&feature=email
RB... Go outside and get the spelling of your street right...NOW!
An article on water based hydro-fracking:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/27/us/27gas.html?_r=2&pagewanted=1&hp&adxnnlx=129877921
Japan's glide path - The big difference I see is the debt load acrried, while Japan's yen has strengthened over the decades and deflation has been a problem, I hope that doesn't happen to the dollar.
ReplyDeleteNo, I think part of Japan's problem has been similar to ours in the sense that emerging countries have maintained currency pegs for decades, which in the longer time horizon is an unsustainable practice.
Believe what you want.
Energy pipeline mlp's? OYOCTR!
ReplyDeleteIf, by some miracle, the US manages to somehow increase exports, but still has the big budget deficits, we would be in the same boat as Japan, long term, would we not?
ReplyDeleteWhat if it caused the dollar to strengthen vs other paper as Japan's has?
And what if our housing bubble burst turns into a 20 year downtrend as Japan's did?
Just thinking aloud...
CP- I just had time to read the article you posted about propane fracing. Interesting, thanks.
ReplyDeleteCP, I liked the propane frac article too.
ReplyDeleteBut, the first comment gives me great pause,
Yea, the only problem is the fluid is somewhat similar to what we used to call napalm...
Hello Vietnam
CTRP?? Anyone?
ReplyDeleteNice and toasty 28˚. Same for you T3D? :)
T3D - It's far from being napalm, that was plain wrong. This mechanism makes use of the expansion and solvent properties of the propane (actually, many liquified gases could be used, even inert ones) to assist in fracturing the substrate.
ReplyDeleteA light petroleum would act as a solvent on the existing hydrocarbons, to lower their viscosity and aid in the process of collection.
There has been one mishap reported among the 260+ or so completed wells, where a fire was started, and this could become an issue when using a hydrocarbon based liquified petroleum gas under certain conditions and inflammabe concentrations. I don't know the details of the reported mishap, it may have been something as simple as a leaking tanker truck valve or something.
Anyway, the point is, injecting refined light petroleum species underground eliminates the contamination hazards specific to hydro-fracking.
As far as Vietnam goes, I always thought the Agent Orange posed more of an persistent environmental and health hazard than the gelled gasoline. The use of gelled gasoline was intended to create an immediate health hazard.
"What if it caused the dollar to strengthen vs other paper as Japan's has?"
ReplyDeleteThen the dollar could potentially outperform gold.
The Japanese public had a persistent habit of saving, therefore the Japanese government couldn't dilute the currency, they chose to lower rates, which created demand for the currency(carry trade), resulting in deflation.
Japan's situation was considerably different than ours today, although there are some parallels, it's a completely different animal.
The FED, as I see it, has several routes at it's disposal, I have much more faith in Bernanke's philosophies than any of the rest of the peanut gallery. They say Bernanke's policies will create hyperinflation, I say these foreigners have ulterior motives that aren't aligned with our best interests.
That should be pretty obvious by now. They will still be telling you that a lobster dinner should cost you $0.50, even after the species had become extinct from overfishing.
Once more lobster comment and I'm heading into the city for lunch!! :))
ReplyDeleteHow about instead of using LPG, fracking used liquified CO2? I would fret over the effectiveness because the hydrocarbon target probably isn't very miscible in CO2. Yes, it probably could be made to work and perhaps even better than water, it just might not be nearly as effective as LPG.
ReplyDeleteLet's leave those decisions to the geologic chemists, they can torch as many drilling rigs as they dare, I'm satisfied so long as they're not busily contaminating ground water and propagating persistent environmental havoc.
Scream at ya' later, I'm off to mix up a batch of napalm. ;)
Mark its a balmy 72 here at the moment and it has been cold all winter, but it starting to turn warm.
ReplyDeleteCp interesting, thanks don't burn yourself playing with napalm while grilling lobster.
Off to the gym.
Okay, a simple search and one discovers CO2 has and is used heavily in the oil industry for both, flushing trapped oil from old wells and fracking.
ReplyDeleteKinder Morgan is the largest supplier of CO2, other sources include ethanol production facilities.
So I guess we're back to Mark's pipeline mlp suggestion.
Kinder Morgan has no less than three tickers, KMI/KMP/KMR... Which one?
The entire subject confuses me to the point of paralysis.
Another tidbit to further add to my confusion:
ReplyDelete"Patent application title: Use of Carbon-Dioxide-Based Fracturing Fluids
Inventors: Gregory Kubala Bruce A. MacKay
Agents: SCHLUMBERGER TECHNOLOGY CORPORATION;David Cate "
http://www.faqs.org/patents/app/20090260828
So honestly folks, I doubt many industry outsiders have any idea of what combination of these technologies the oil industry will eventually implement.