Monday, February 28, 2011
3/1/11 A Common Disaster
Run away with me from a life so cramped and dull
Not worry too much about the happily-ever-after
Just keep the Caddy moving
'til we're well beyond that hill
Won't you share a common disaster?
Share with me a common disaster
A common disaster
We have all shared the same experience with the leveraged inverse ETFs. A common disaster in every sense.
A candle burning for everything I've ever wanted
A tattoo burned for everything I've ever wanted and lost
I had a long list of names that I kept in my back pocket,
But I've cut it down to one and your name's at the top
Which names top the list? I successfully traded TZA/VXX this morning. The trades weren't posted because (a) the positions were small (total net gain was $115), and (b) I would have looked like a dumb--- if they had turned into losses. In fact, had I held either one longer than a half hour, the trades would have ended up in the red.
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'HSBC shares dive 5.1% in early Hong Kong trade'
ReplyDelete2nd- Why?
ReplyDeleteI think it's time for the market to finally reward Doug Kass for taking the wrong side of the trade. He's been wrong about two months now.
ReplyDeleteBecause-
ReplyDelete(a) HSBC is calling for lower profit margins (for banking in general) going forward, and
(b) Two months seems punishment enough for Kassistas.
(b) works for me....But only a small amount of relief :)
ReplyDeleteGreat idea, don't post trades in case maybe you're wrong you avoid looking silly!
ReplyDeleteWe should all do that ;)
We just had our pullback. We even retested the lower trend line on S&P, not good enough for Kass?
ReplyDeleteCP- My sentiments exactly!
ReplyDeleteI will admit I don't post many of my profitable trades, not because they are infrequent but because they are boring and small. Billy ball. No grand slams. Usually sell too soon.
ReplyDeleteHere is a tax time trivia question: How many pages do you file under the Continuation Sheet for Schedule D (Form 1040), Part 1 (Short-Term Capital Gains and Losses)? Last year I was at 4 and suspect similar for the return due APR 18.
"We just had our pullback. We even retested the lower trend line on S&P, not good enough for Kass?"
ReplyDeleteCP, I am afraid the pullback we had was a disaster for Kass, since he probably thought the "Big One" is finally starting, and so instead of closing his shorts at good prices he most likely added some new shorts at the bottom of the pullback. I've been in that boat in late 2009, where I couldn't make any money on the short side during the shallow pullbacks we had since I was waiting for the Big One.
Illini- I'd have to check, but I'm pretty sure I had 7 pages. I'm afraid to look this year. I'm going to get killed :(
ReplyDeleteNLY - Almost back to $18
ReplyDeleteI've been saying this since Egypt exploded...
ReplyDeletehttp://www.cnbc.com/id/41795342
I think this is tremendously bullish longer term. Listen to what these people are protesting for: basic human rights, freedom and democracy. Is that not three tenets for economic growth? A huge percentage of the Middle East population is suppressed and unable to work. If they go to work and are productive members of society, that's tremendously bullish for the global economy. I ain't saying it's gonna happen tomorrow but it's a positive long term.
Since we're fessing up to trades not posted, I should do the same. I bought SONS at the close.
ReplyDeleteIllini - I'll let you know when I get a round toit. ;)
ReplyDeletePoor Kass, trading the left side of the reversal! ;)
It's amazing how even though oil still hasn't retreated much, the market keeps rising. As if the market was anticipating higher oil and already priced it in.
Something tells me we're not done unwinding the last two decades of dollar propping and/or the market thinks corporate profits are going to hold up.
For the last 4 years, I am only giving the year-total gain/loss number for each ticker, and IRS never had any problems with it. This was suggested to me by a CPA who said their firm would write one short-term and one long-term gain/loss number PER BROKER for some of their active traders, and IRS never bothered them as well. So those of you who don't want to have a nightmare filling in every trade can try something like this as well.
ReplyDeleteIts a pain in the "arse" to tabulate each trade. But it can be a good review of your folly or success.
ReplyDeleteSONS - Hey, so did I! ;)
ReplyDeleteCNN UPDATE 18:48 EST
ReplyDeleteAP ROUTE #54312
LYBIA HAS HIRED BAGHDAD BOB
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TrXhxmQJSS0
MORE TO FOLLOW
illini - Sounds like maybe you're doin' it wrong! ;)
ReplyDeleteDavid. So you submit a form with The ticker and net gain or loss and that is it? That would be great. I have over 400 trades between two brokers. I don't want to write it out.
ReplyDeleteHow many trades do you guys have.? I am obviously under trading.
Baghdad Bob: "It has been rumored that we have fired scud missiles into Kuwait. I am here now to tell you, we do not have any scud missiles and I don't know why they were fired into Kuwait."
ReplyDeleteCheney: "And we believe he has, in fact, reconstituted nuclear weapons,"
Baghdad Bob: "The simple fact is this: they are foreigners inside a country which has rejected them. Therefore, these foreigners wherever they go or travel they will be rained down with bullets from everyone. Attacks by members of the resistance will only go up."
Cheney: fight would be "weeks rather than months"
Baghdad Bob: "“We have placed them in a quagmire from which they can never emerge except dead”
Cheney: "I think they're in the last throes, if you will, of the insurgency."
"David. So you submit a form with The ticker and net gain or loss and that is it? That would be great."
ReplyDeleteYep, that's exactly what I do. Each of my brokers provides me a consolidated gain/loss statement at the end of the year, and I just use that statement. If I trade the same ticker in several rokebrages, then I consolidate the results for all of them into one line.
I think the red flag goes up automatically in IRS if the total proceeds of stock trades are not equal to the sum of total proceeds reported on 1099 for all brokerages, and I always check my results to make sure that these two numbers match.
"I have over 400 trades between two brokers. I don't want to write it out. How many trades do you guys have.? I am obviously under trading."
ReplyDeleteRoBear, I think I trade on average a couple of times per day (maybe more), so I might have close to 1000 trades per year. Even if I only had 100, I would still not want to write them all out. :)
Silver spot just broke through $34, so I would be very disappointed if my sell limit order for ECUXF at $1.16 does not get triggered tomorrow bright and early, just like today. :)
ReplyDeleteguys - i hate that i know this, but being a tax accountant and all...you don't need to fill out all of your trades. all you need to do is put "Various" for buy and sell date and "Details Available Upon Request" or "See Attachement" and then print out the details from your broker as supporting documentation for your total gains/losses that you put in Schedule D.
ReplyDeletei don't do personal taxes but this is what we do for our client hedge funds and its what i've done on my tax return for several years now. i used TD Ameritrade for trading in large part because they have a great tool called gainskeeper that keeps track of everything for you.
i'm such a freaking nerd.
The index futures are already shooting up! Will all of these buyers be disappointed when the 1st of the month will have a big slide instead of a rally, like everyone expects now? Somehow, I have a feeling that we won't see a rally tomorrow, and if we do get a gap up then it will be sold.
ReplyDeleteDavid - I can't help but think the market is going much much higher. I hear ya on the short term but the S&P earnings are too damn high (http://blogs.wsj.com/metropolis/2010/10/19/rent-is-too-damn-high-single-issue-singular-candidate/).
ReplyDeletehttp://www.zacks.com/stock/news/48188/Strong+Earnings+Season+Almost+Done
If we do EPS of $100 in 2011 then I'd have to imagine the majority of investors will be ok with paying 15 times earnings or 1,500 S&P.
About 5000 trades per year lately not including the retirement accounts. It takes a week just to calculate the p/l because some brokers don't do it.
ReplyDeletei'd recommend all of you guys use TD AMTD. much easier to track things.
ReplyDeleteCheck out Bll's trades last Friday.
ReplyDeleteThis higher oil is putting a crimp in things this morning. I'm moving more to cash now.
ReplyDeleteMarch 1, 2011, 1:49 a.m. EST
ReplyDeleteCiti sees peak-cement scenario in China
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/citi-sees-peak-cement-scenario-in-china-2011-03-01
hopped back into WLT at $121. Also bought a little DANG(!) at $24.7
ReplyDeleteI've never seen this before. QPSA is 'RCB'..."regulatory circuit breaker'.
ReplyDeleteAdded WLT at $119.5
ReplyDeleteI have a feeling I'm going to be hanging @ 2nds pad for a while.
ReplyDeleteRB- Seems there was a little scuffle at Kendra's school yesterday. The soccer girls v. the cheerleaders...Too funny :). From what I'm told, it didn't last long :)
BCOND just went RCB. I wonder if this has been happening and only now am I seeing it??
ReplyDeleteGreat... Looks like Davids ECUXF money pump hit again. Now we are going to hear about it AGAIN ;)
ReplyDeleteAUTO sales coming up.
ReplyDeleteThere is a lot of volume in SPY already.
ReplyDeleteBCOND -> RCB? NFW!
ReplyDeleteMark - prob first of the month volume...right?
ReplyDeleteWaiting for Kass to Cover...
ReplyDeleteI got stopped out of VLO which was a confused play on decling oil that did not happen.
ReplyDeleteI took a plunge in the seedy side of the Silver market by buying EXK pre market.
Thanks for all the tax responses that will save me alot of time.:)
PSTR - an ODPSF!
ReplyDeleteLoaded up on WLT at $119.4
ReplyDeleteAONE - Another "flywheel" project:
ReplyDelete"Carmakers focus on green power as fuel costs rise"
Where's Fred Flintstone when we need him?
I think REDF looks like it is set to move up...it has held this $6 level.
ReplyDeleteDANG has some serious upside to fill...I wish I loaded the boat on this one instead of WLT.
ReplyDeleteI wonder if Bernanke loaded up on commodities securities, etc. when the S&P was 666?
ReplyDeleteHome improvements up 11%
ReplyDeleteIYT - Failed at the 50
ReplyDeleteLooks like I guessed it correctly with the opening gap up being sold today. If I read an idea on CC (about first days of the month having a tendency of being extremely strong), then it is a public knowledge and hence cannot come true.
ReplyDeleteAs for the longer term:
"If we do EPS of $100 in 2011 then I'd have to imagine the majority of investors will be ok with paying 15 times earnings or 1,500 S&P."
Well, Hussman did show that statistically, S&P returns have a very poor correlation to changes in YoY earnings. There is a much better correlation to smoothed trailing 10-year earnings...
And yes, I forgot to mention my ECUXF money pump. :) The damn thing is not working yet! Even though yahoo finance shows $1.16 being hit this morning, my sell limit at $1.16 was not filled! Well, the current ask is $1.16, so there is still a chance that my order gets filled today...
ReplyDeleteGood to see nat gas selling off. We need some order in this market.
ReplyDeleteLooks to me that the indices might have bottomed for the day -- it is rare to have more than 2 intraday legs down. So I just bought 300 shares of SSO at $52.65, placed a sell stop order for these shares at the day's low of $52.45, and also placed a buy stop limit for 200 more shares at $52.76/$52.78, just above the most recent intraday high.
ReplyDeletethere goes gold...damn.
ReplyDeleteOn a second thought, I have just canceled my second buy stop at $52.76, since I got a feeling that even if SSO hits it right now, it will still re-test $52.60 before moving up. Even a re-test of $52.50 is likely, as my sixth-sense (called fear) just told me.
ReplyDeleteOK, so the $52.76 mark was just hit, and I have just placed a buy *limit* order for 200 shares at $52.60. Let's see if my intuition is correct and SSO retests that level soon. If not, then my original 300 shares purchased at $52.65 will go a long way. :)
ReplyDeleteWell, the script has played out almost perfectly so far -- after hitting $52.78, a spike down in SSO had occurred all the way to $52.65, and I decided to jump in and add a little more at $52.67 (100 shares), as I think this is just a shakeout rather than the start of a move to new daily lows.
ReplyDeleteif bears don't get any more momentum soon i think we may see a breakeven close.
ReplyDeleteWhy would this be the real reversal for the day? Well, just like on Friday, both USO and VXX started retreating after that "capitulation low," which should push up the stocks.
ReplyDeletei'm seeing a lot of stock turning around here.
ReplyDeleteactually, the market hasn't broken it's downtrend from this morning's highs so maybe i'm wrong...
ReplyDeleteLooks like I rushed it just a little with buying 100 shares of SSO at $52.67 -- SSO just had a real spike down to $52.59, and so my buy limit at $52.60 got hit for 200 shares, just like in my original script. So now I have 600 shares at the average price of $52.63 -- at least I have accumulated these shares at a decent price on pullbacks, instead of paying a much higher price while buying a breakout to the upside.
ReplyDeleteNow, my task is not to get shaken out of these shares. I just lowered my sell stop to $52.40, so as to be just a little below the low of the day.
ReplyDeleteWow, SSO has just not only re-tested $52.60 and $52.50 -- it came within a penny of retesting the day's low at $52.45! Boy, did I feel a shakeout coming, but I didn't know it will be THAT scary.
ReplyDeletePicked up 200 more shares at $52.50 and placed a sell stop for all my shares at $52.40.
ReplyDeleteGasfrac - +4%
ReplyDeleteThat was a mean spike down in SSO, coming down 2 pennies below the day's low and making a new low at $52.43. Naturally, that spike down was followed by an immediate spike up to $52.53, for the viewing pleasure of all those who placed their stops at the previous low of the day.
ReplyDeleteWell, my foray into SSO today has ended -- I got stopped out of all my 800 shares at $52.39. My cost basis for all shares was around $52.59, so it was a loss of $160 for me. That's a reasonable loss for the fun of day trading. :)
ReplyDeleteWell, at least CCJ is not breaking down today...
ReplyDeleteIs it too late to call a flat close?
ReplyDeleteIt's about time for the market to stop making new intraday lows, as USO is still below its morning highs!
ReplyDeletePlacing a buy stop order for 800 shares of SSO at $52.41, basically the same price at which I was stopped out, so as to catch a reversal, if it occurs.
ReplyDeleteAll my stops are getting hit today -- this time it was the buy stop at $52.41, which got executed at $52.43 for 800 shares. Placing a sell stop at $52.23, today's low so far.
ReplyDeleteUnbelievable! Got stopped out of SSO again for another loss of $160!
ReplyDeleteThis could get serious now, people may just give up and we may see a major capitulation spike down.
ReplyDeleteagree David, this is the start of the 10% correction.
ReplyDeletesolidly in black territory for 6E and ES, made one wrong move and CL crushed me, back to the futures penalty box for JB, F*CK, I was greedy and man I paid for it.
Looks like I've returned to a sale. Hmmmm..
ReplyDeleteBCOND- WTF is wrong with the gizmo? Blew a fuse?
ReplyDeleteCLNE is worthless again.
ReplyDeleteTOF- Any take on BYD earnings?
ReplyDeleteWhat do you know, 1st day of the month "ATM" is empty.
ReplyDeleteCry Me A River
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SMwXPueu-RM
t3d
Mark > BYD earnings were weak man. Def not good. I decided to buy a handful of SPY $130 Calls at $1.7 just now for a trade because I'm bored...they expire Friday.
ReplyDeletelooks like my buy was $1.72 on the SPY Calls.
ReplyDeleteif we get a big move up right now to reverse the majority of these losses,that's gotta piss off a lot of bears.
ReplyDeleteTOF- Thanks. That was my quick take also.
ReplyDeleteAdded more SPY Calls at $1.75. Everyone > Here is part of the reason why I added some calls on SPY just now...
ReplyDeletehttp://www.cnbc.com/id/41723696
Good ole Warren will be on the boob tube tomorrow morning for a while. He's very bullish on our country.
Yeah, the market is up 100%, let's get buffy of the govv't on pumping how great Amerika is so we can suck in the public.
ReplyDeleteYeah.
Did not the previous spike in oil prices stop visitors going to vegas, maybe it will repeat.
BAC is damn close to making a new low.
ReplyDeleteT3D- You have a price target for ALU?
ReplyDeletet3d > its his annual shareholder meeting so i don't think he's sucking anyone in. however, dude ain't called the oracle for nothing.
ReplyDeleteImbalances favor da bears.
ReplyDeleteMark, I sold ALU yesterday. The mkt looks to vulnerable here to me, all cash except metals.
ReplyDeleteWill re-access, based on mkt conditions. So sorry no price target. The mkt does not pay attention to me anyway.
Moving 100% of my slow moving money (i.e., the stuff i have in my 401k that is long only) out of the money market account that i unfortunately went into back in November and into the S&P Index fund at the close.
ReplyDeleteAll right. I'm not buying here. Any of you?
ReplyDeleteTOF, did not know it was his annual, I thought it was a CNBC dog and pony show, thanks.
ReplyDeleteHowever, with all the bailout programs some of his insurance companies were big beneficiaries. I have owned his stock for about ten years now, I just never look at it.
Anyway GL, I prefer to defend capital here and the hell with missed opportunity.
GL all
Go ahead David ;)
ReplyDeleteI took a look at my parallel with the 1999 market and this is playing out in real time man. why didn't i just hold on to those SPY puts? oh well. anyway, if the parallel holds it looks like we get another down day tomorrow which will mark the bottom of the pullback. then we retest old highs within a week or two. the market will then trade sideways within the 1,290 to 1,350 range for a month or so.
ReplyDeleteYes, Mark -- my ECUXF money pump did complete today its round trip, hit my sell limit at $1.16 and spit out another $250 for me. :) Instead of screwing around with SSO (up $300 on Friday, down $360 today), I should have just focused on the ECUXF money pump. Isn't it obvious that it has nowhere to go but up, with SLV making new highs and ECUXF still stuck way below its previous highs? This discrepancy will be corrected, and I doubt it will be corrected by SLV plunging down by 30%.
ReplyDeleteMark, imagine what happens tomorrow if Buffett says that he is concerned about the rising oil prices...
ReplyDeletePlacing a buy limit order for the same 5000 shares of ECUXF at $1.11 -- wash, rinse and repeat. :)
ReplyDeleteMark and gang ALU: If this new cube technology is for real and they execute, I think this is something you can put away for 2-5 years. The stock has had a good run, so with mkt looking shaky I'm not in a hurry.
ReplyDeleteThe businessweek mag had an article on page 35 on ALU. There is one thing that I would like to claryify with investor relations, the presentation said they had five mobile carriers lined up, but the article states no carriers have committed to testing it yet.
This is a big divergence from what ALU stated. Someone is not passing the Pinocchio test, which one?
KNDI - Reports on the 4th, and it's really beat up. I'm gonna keep a close eye on this one, their electric vehicle rollout was delayed till late last year b/c the electric utility hadn't installed the planned charging stations.
ReplyDeleteALU - I see a big gap up that very well could close...
ReplyDeleteMaybe the Libyan protesters managed to get their hands on Charley Sheen's stash?
ReplyDeleteT3D- I watched the whole presentation also. You do point out a major difference. Thanks and let us know what you find out.
ReplyDeleteALU Investor Relations:
ReplyDeleteOn or about 7 Feb 11, ALU had a presentation on lightRadio posted on your website. In it your presenters made the following statement:
Paraphrasing, we have five mobile operators lined up who want to use this technology. Three of the five are willing to go public. They are Verizon, Orange, and China Mobile.
In the issue of Bloomberg Businessweek page 35 (28 Feb to 6 Mar) an article by Peter Burrows states:
“While carriers say they are very interested in the technology, none have committed to testing it yet, let alone buying it.”
These two statements represent a wide dichotomy. Please add some color and clarification with respect to the above.
Let's see how they respond.
Probably wont happen, but SPX 1272 is an interesting area.
ReplyDeleteI hope it happens mark. I bailed on about 60% of my positions today so I'm sitting with cash in hand. i still can't believe i ignored my own intuition that we would retrace...oh well, i'm starting to see some nice setups...just waiting for the whites of their eyes.
ReplyDeletenew post
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