Wednesday, March 23, 2011
3/23/11 Smokin' In The Boys Room
Smokin' in the boys room
Smokin' in the boys room
Teacher don't you fill me up with your rules
Everybody knows that smokin' ain't allowed in school
Trading rules surely include a few regarding volume. Is the Market allowed to 'smoke' without volume? Well, I don't know what the indexes are smoking, but they seem to be having a good time in the boys room.
Lack of conviction is driving this market. We end the week well above 1300.
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I know what I'm smoking. Good stuff.
ReplyDeleteI'm telling you, NO ONE believes in this rally. They're all sitting on the sidelines waiting for the 'retest.' They'll still be sitting there when the Lions make it 63-0.
ReplyDeleteHell, even I don't believe in this rally. Which is why I believe in this rally.
ReplyDeleteActually, I can easily imagine a neophyte trader reading my posts and wondering seriously what I'm smoking ;)
ReplyDeleteHere comes Portugal to further jack up the indexes. Good news is good news. Bad news is good news. No news is good news.
ReplyDeleteLate Post: CP: "I'm pretty sure no one will read this, not sure why I even bother.".....I read it and applaud you on such international, socio-economic thinking.
ReplyDeleteI am reminded of something remembered from the 1960's or 70's, when the environmental movement was just kicking up. The question raised was "what will happen when 700 million Chinese get cars?", regarding air pollution. Well, there are now 1.2 billion in China and not many have cars yet industrial pollution is rampant. My hope for them is that they will become smarter as they work hard.....and do not commit to "conventional" nuclear power plants.
March 23, 2011 7:14 PM
2nd - You're cracking me up man. But you're totally right...absolutely no one believes in this market. I have ThinkorSwim through TD Ameritrade and I go in their chat room once in a while and you should read the skepticism in there. Most of them think they know more than the market and they say there is no reason for the market to be going up. And just about everyone agrees that once QE2 ends the market will tank. Everyone is feeding into the skepticism. I wouldn't be surprised if in 3 years we're at S&P 2,000 and people will be saying the same crap. It's really unbelievable.
ReplyDeleteTOF/2nd- Your right, no one believes. Just might be enough to push us higher. Of course, like a little girl, I bailed on my small SOS position for a loss today.
ReplyDeleteI'll sit in the corner now and twist my hair...And snap my gum...And...
Sentimentrader
ReplyDelete"Over the past week, the VIX has gone from more than 30% above its 10 day average to more than 15% below. That gives us precious few historical comparisons, but when we relax the parameters to 15% both ways, we get a few more.The results were weak across the board, with extreme volatility in the results. During the next week, the S&P was +/- 3% on 7 out of the 8 occurrences. During the next three months, the median drawdown in the S&P 500 was -15.5%, compared to a median maximum gain of only +5.5%.
Median 1 week return for the VIX+ 11.2%
20/50ema crossover for the Wilshire 2 sessions ago. If another thrust lower is setting up, the market should have traded up to the downward sloping 20 day moving average before heading back down. Wilshire hit 13796 yesterday. 20 day is heading lower and stands at 13808. VIX looks to be setting back up.
ReplyDeleteAll of the charts I'm looking at seem too good to be true. Too easy. I'm going to take the contrarian route and transition into VIX derivatives at the open...
Europe opened strong. Looks like we'll gap up above the 20 day. All is clear for now on the long side. Doesn't look like I'll be looking at VIX plays today.
ReplyDeleteCleared For Takeoff> Adding GE/INTC @ 19.68/20.43 newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5376 comments) on Thu, 03/24/2011 - 09:02 #82220
ReplyDeleteScaling into each at 25% of allocation. Looking to add to positions in CSCO/SMH. Hoping semis bounce right back to February highs. WFC on the watchlist.
[Edit] There's a distinct possibility it could be 'liftoff' rather than 'takeoff.' At some point, 1300 becomes a distant memory.
Adding WFC @ 31.30 newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5377 comments) on Thu, 03/24/2011 - 09:32 #82224
ReplyDeleteI'll take WFC over BAC any day.
A little profit-taking by near-sighted Nervous Nellies.
ReplyDeleteAdding to BEXP @ 33.65. Full position now.
ReplyDeleteCSCO> To 50% of allocation @ 17.49 newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5378 comments) on Thu, 03/24/2011 - 09:48 #82225
ReplyDeletenew 52 week high for HEK...doh!
ReplyDeleteclosing out INFA, been a nice ride but almost all of the takeover premium has got to be backed into the price at this point.
out MGIC 6.30 +1.00
ReplyDeleteout LMLP 3.50 +.14
bought TVIX 39.59
ReplyDeleteout MERU for lunch money.
ReplyDeleteLook at F go on good news.
ReplyDeleteout DPTR +6%
ReplyDeleteWilshire being rejected at the junction of the 20/50 day crossover at 13833. High of day is 13832.32. Love the VIX pullback. Dollar stochastics setting up for a dollar run perhaps....
ReplyDeleteOK, I lied...Adding to BEXP @ 33.25 ;)
ReplyDeleteHEK...Yeah, and SD :(
ReplyDeletesh*t! didn't need to look at SD either.
ReplyDeleteThankfully I'm still loaded to the gills with TRE... double :(
The Bug has gotten in to UCD and UCSC, only waiting on Cal which s/b tonight. did you know that it costs over 120k to go to a UC for 4 years. un-freakin-real. I really need one of my holdings to take off.
ReplyDeleteNo one's playing the NGas lottery this morning?
ReplyDeleteI have always got the nat gas trade wrong, perfect 0 for every trade record. hope someone here makes good $$$ on it.
ReplyDeleteRe: heavy fight on the 1300 front/ Early am profit-taking by NNs newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5379 comments) on Thu, 03/24/2011 - 10:47 #82235 (in reply to #82232)
ReplyDeleteNervous Nellies, aka Non-believers. JMO.
What happened to the Seattle one?
ReplyDeleteShe's still thinking about it, but now that she has gotten $$$ for UC's I think she wants to stay in CA.
ReplyDelete2nd leg up for F.
ReplyDeleteBest-selling Financial Author in 2012: 'Laszlo!' newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5380 comments) on Thu, 03/24/2011 - 10:50 #82236
ReplyDeleteReplaces Roubini on the talk show circuit.
Did she get a scholarship for a UC school?
ReplyDeleteyeah, partial but it really helps since her mom is kicking in 0. over the past two years tuition and fees have gone up 40% so I was really hurting.
ReplyDeleteout TVIX -2%. Gonna call it a night. All cash.
ReplyDeleteRe: Best-selling Financial Author in 2012: 'Laszlo!' newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5381 comments) on Thu, 03/24/2011 - 11:16 #82244 (in reply to #82239)
ReplyDeleteballw- Actually, I was referring to: Laszlo 'SPX 2800 by September 4, 2013' Birinyi. But hey, I prefer reading Hunter Thompson!
JDSU baby! Man if there is any doubt that this isn't a rolling bull market, I don't know what to tell you.
ReplyDeleteDECK looks like a good rebound play as well. And I bet we see AAPL up at $360 once again very soon.
By the way, have you guys been watching HEK at all? It's in clear breakout mode.
Sold my JDSU at $20.25 just now. Sold my JDSU April $17 calls at $3.4
ReplyDeleteRe: csco newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5382 comments) on Thu, 03/24/2011 - 12:25 #82256 (in reply to #82251)
ReplyDeleteI agree, but I also think the 'large-cap value' play is just around the corner. We'll see.
illini - Yes, it seems there still are a few bugs that need to be worked out before nuclear can be considered a viable alternative. It's pretty obvious we can no longer continue accepting this level of risk.
ReplyDeleteI need to see all risk of thermal runaway completely limited, perhaps that may involve a solution for fuel storage problems as well.
Something's not right when PM's are getting hit, the market's gonna notice isn't it?
ReplyDeleteChicken > maybe the PMs are noticing that the economy is strong?
ReplyDeleteI would think a strengthening economy might be a good reason for rates to increase as well, the TOG basically involves selling T's and buying PM's doesn't it?
ReplyDeleteUnless of course the TOG is just a myth....
Of course it's possible the TOG may in actuality be an Armageddon play reserved for extremists!
ReplyDeleteNever did get the full benefit of an explanation and it does seem rather convoluted, possibly contrived during an alcoholic binge of some sort. ;)
Any reason CSCO is down this morning?
ReplyDeleteAAPL going to $360 next week. As such, I bought some at $344.05 to go with my AAPL $335 Calls expiring next Friday that I bought this morning at $10.4.
ReplyDeletesold RBY is running up against the 50 dma and has had a good run from recent lows. I do not like the way the stock has been trading but if it pulls back will reconsider buyback.
ReplyDeletesold 1/2 TEVA same reason up against 50 dma, plus the stock rarely moves big (for it) more than twos days in a row. TEVA seems a reasonable valuation.
Thses seem to have mojo and prefer over just barely a pulse CSCO.
ALU 0.20 5.34 + 5.35 3.89%
JDSU 1.22 20.23 - 20.24 6.41%
FNSR 1.16 23.12 - 23.13 5.28%
OCLR 0.38 11.02 - 11.03 3.56%
Is it Fried Day yet?
Igor, this is some discussion on CSCO at CC. It does not specifically address your question.
ReplyDeleteBOYZ.... :))...BEXP anyone? :)
ReplyDeleteT3d -- Agree w/ you on OCLR FNSR check out NPTN
ReplyDeleteCAR- Damn. Lost track of that one.
ReplyDeleteORCL margins look good.
ReplyDeleteKyle, NPTN -56.44%, not for me as I do not know why the company sold off plus its a failed IPO.
ReplyDeleteJust from the charts JDSU and ALU are in confirmed uptrends with pullbacks, much more so for JDSU. I have a much stronger preference to trade in the direction of the trend.
Just me and my preference FWIW.
Re: Cleared For Takeoff> Adding GE/INTC @ 19.68/20.43 newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5383 comments) on Thu, 03/24/2011 - 16:09 #82276 (in reply to #82270)
ReplyDeleteJohnny- Good to hear. Wish I could say the same for the Cisco Kid. CSCO's taking a knife in the palm right now, but heavyweights are able to take one in stride (fast forward to 2:30)-
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ai3fH0BiXh8
Not worried about CSCO.
igor- To make big bucks, sometimes you have to endure the long plateaus.
ReplyDeleteHere's the kind of bullshit that can sucker punch an investor- from marketwatch:
ReplyDelete4:03p Oracle shares fall 2% after Q3 results
That's NOT what I see- ORCL after hours bid/ask unchanged...
ReplyDeleteKYLE- Do you know anything about NTPN?
ReplyDeleteSee you guys at the bar :))
Took 2/3 of my AAPL $345 calls that expire tmrw off the table...only had a total of 40 at a cost of 0.65. Sold them at $1.33. Letting the rest ride as well as the stock position and the $335 calls expiring next week. ALso picked up 1 x AAPL $350 put expiring tomorrow at $5.1 in case something bad happens.
ReplyDeleteI really like that AAPL is kinda left behind here. Nothing is wrong with the company...probably just in neutral because of Jobs. I will probably sell some if it gets to $350ish.
I also started a small position in SPF. I think this one is going to be a very good long term hold. Assuming we have a great bull market, real estate will bottom before people expect. And if we have a stagnant market then inflation will come into play which should eventually help out real estate. If the stock goes up 25% quickly, though, I'll probably sell.
WATG - David, aren't you trading this one? I'm wondering if you've got an idea when their 10-K form will be filed?
ReplyDeleteLooks like a little GAPPLE tomorrow on the back of bad RIMM earnings.
ReplyDeleteGapple- Your funny bunny.
ReplyDeleteman...this week has been incredible. just give me a big move up in NLS and i'm set.
ReplyDeleteand to top it off...my brother's wife gave birth to their third kid today: charlotte! needless to say my brand new wife is getting the itch.
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