Re: AAII Sentiment Survey> Gap Up Monday newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5392 comments) on Fri, 03/25/2011 - 19:24 #82377 (in reply to #82363)
'The latest Investors Intelligence poll pegged bullish sentiment at 50.6% and bearish sentiment at 22.4%'
Not sure which week those numbers refer to, but this week's numbers are markedly more bullish from a contrarian perspective-
http://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey
For the week ending 3/23/11: Bullish 37.7% and Bearish 35%
Since the indexes are higher now than when the (presumably) earlier survey was taken, I take that as an extremely bullish signal. I think we gap up Monday, probably >100 points on the DJIA.
I may end up being spectacularly wrong, but that's my honest take.
I must be a certified CC shit-starter, but someone has to counter the incessant bearish tone on that blog.
ReplyDeleteRe: US tax payers should give BAC the middle digit newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5393 comments) on Fri, 03/25/2011 - 19:57 #82380 (in reply to #82378)
ReplyDeleteWhich is the more challenging position?
(a) Arrive at your desk at 9 am. Borrow money at 2% and lend it at 5%. Two martini lunches to help with the boredom. Leave at 3 pm for the golf course.
(b) Arrive at the classroom at 7 am. Ensure 25-30 kids learn/master the necessary social/classroom skills to succeed in life. Finish grading at home.
Which pays more? Which is held in higher esteem?
Actually, bankers can't even borrow money at 2% and lend it at 5% without ----ing things up.
The Bakken's Best Stocks
ReplyDeleteBy DONALD H. GOLD, INVESTOR'S BUSINESS DAILY Posted 03/24/2011 04:36 PM ET
Featured Stocks
*
BEXP *
Brigham Exploration Co (Added 03/24/2011)
CLR *
Continental Res Inc (Added 03/23/2011)
OAS
Oasis Petroleum Inc
* Top-Rated Company
Oil experts knew for decades that North Dakota's Bakken Formation hid a huge petro-reservoir within its rocks. But as soon as drillers figured out the power held in the union of two key technologies, hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling, the Bakken came alive.
Here are some of the best-rated names active in that area.
Brigham Exploration (BEXP) may shine best. It bounced off its 10-week average two weeks ago and now stands 8% off its Feb. 28 peak.
Brigham notched a 700% EPS gain in Q1 of 2010 and 425% in Q4. Q2 and Q3 earnings were compared against year-earlier results. The Street looks for a 175% gain in the current period.
Sales in the past four quarters surged 76%, 327%, 84% and 159%. After-tax margin has boomed in the past four periods, with the most recent reading at 46%. A year earlier, that gauge read 18%.
A Feb. 28 report from Dougherty & Co. notes Brigham's expansion in the Bakken.
"Brigham announced that it will expand its seven-rig drilling program in the Williston Basin, adding an eighth in May and operating 12 rigs by September 2012. ... We believe this was the highlight of the December quarter release."
SA article today...
ReplyDeleteThe price of oil continues to go higher. For the past six months, it has been hard not to be bullish on the oil exploration and production stocks. Now that oil is priced over $105 per barrel, it may be difficult to know what stocks have a forward valuation that is sustainable when the market has a downward correction. The P/E and forward P/E ratios give an idea of how much an investor is paying for a stock's earnings, but in the case of growth stocks, the PEG ratio can be a better indicator.
The first stock is Brigham Exploration (BEXP). Brigham has what may be the best management team in the Bakken. The company has beat analyst expectations for four straight quarters. Brigham also outperforms the competition drilling wells. Brigham consistently has higher IP rates, longer laterals and more stages. Brigham started purchasing Bakken leaseholds in 2005. By doing so the company acquired acres at low prices. Brigham: Outstanding Drilling Results in the Bakken Shale is a more in depth article about this company. Analyst estimates have Brigham growing 40.8% per year for the next five years. Brigham's valuation metrics are:
*
P/E Ratio-89.5
*
2011 Annual EPS Growth-91.7%
*
PEG Ratio-.976
FWIW, both of those articles came out after the close today.
ReplyDeleteI absolutely love trading over here in the orient. It truly takes 90% of the emotion out of trading.
ReplyDeleteI am only really able to trade for about an hour a day due to the time difference.
I was getting really nervous being out of UNG, so I decided to buy it back .03 above my sales price 2 or 3 days ago. I went to bed and just looked at the close. Nice. Next week is THE moment of truth for UNG that I have been waiting for 2 years for. It went up to 11.66 (I predicted 11.75ish in an earlier post) to test the descending trendline. It was violently rejected and it has responded with an equally forceful push right back to super duper long term resistance. I think it is time. The next couple of weeks will tell...
http://www.stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID660602&cmd=show[s207384618]&disp=O
TOF- BYD is forming a nice little pattern here. Do you have any interest in this one?
ReplyDeleteJesse- Yep, you called it! I have no Fing idea how considering injections are likely next week.
This is actually a big deal. NATO to expand mission in Libya.
ReplyDeleteSorry...Link:
ReplyDeletehttp://news.blogs.cnn.com/2011/03/25/libya-live-blog-uae-to-support-enforce-no-fly-zone/?hpt=T1
dave-
ReplyDelete(a) So at the time of the Rosenberg commentary, AAII sentiment was running 2:1 Bulls:Bears. Now it's 1:1. Since the indexes are now lower than when Rosenberg made his comments, I take the fairly dramatic decrease in the number of Bulls as a bullish development.
(b) I don't pretend to be 'well-informed.' To begin with, I take everything I read with a grain of salt. Second, information readily available tends to be priced in, which generally makes it less than useful when placing future bets. Most of the time, my sense of market direction is derived from trying to put myself in the crowd's shoes. Then I simply fade my take on crowd behavior. To be sure, it doesn't always work. A great deal of the time, the crowd is right- or my take is wrong!
Rain....again. Crikes...
ReplyDeleteWont happen, but good read anyway.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-26/u-s-1st-qtr-gdp-may-not-be-as-strong-as-expected-bullard-says.html
Mark I was thinking abt BYD the other day and I think now that lvs is in play byd may follow...I think I like penn just as much as any casino stock...honestly though the one stock that I think has huge turnaround potential is nls...listen to the last conf call a couple of weeks ago and read their quarterly report...I could see double digits in 2011/12
ReplyDeleteThis is the type of crap I have to put up with when it rains...
ReplyDeletehttp://www.screencast.com/t/lcDP5irLo
Detroit- 'A Tale Of Two Cities' newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5396 comments) on Sat, 03/26/2011 - 18:45 #82403
ReplyDeletehttp://tinyurl.com/4kxlgla
The Motor City is far from dead. Maybe they'll call it the Coder City. Or the e-Motor City.
Mark- You have the picture perfect family.
ReplyDeletevb- It's been an incredible year for storms in the Bay Area. I'm assuming several hundreds of inches of snow in Tahoe for the season.
ReplyDelete"All Hell Breaks Loose in the Middle East"
ReplyDeletewww.juancole.com
Prof Cole is not an alarmist. He is an expert. He calls em as he sees em at his post in Ann Arbor. Sometimes on PBS-TV News Hour. The tensions are a-building.
2nd- I tend to agree with you most of the time, but I'll take the opposite view on this one. Based on the VIX being stretched like a rubber band to the downside and the huge intra-month reversal in the S+P back up to the top of its monthly bollinger band, I'm prepared for quite a doozy of a market rout this week to end the month...
ReplyDeleteI was just looking at the chart of crude oil to natural gas going back to 1995. After every spike in the crude oil to natural gas ratio, the ratio usually reverts to the 4-6 (2.2 in 2001) range within 4-8 months after the peak.
ReplyDeleteI'm thinking we may see $150 oil this year. That gives me a POTENTIAL price target of 25-37.5 for natural gas. Probably beyond comprehension. Food for thought. With the 2 year downward channel close to being broken, this would be the year for such a crazy move. Time will tell....
What Radiation Spike? newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5397 comments) on Sun, 03/27/2011 - 08:54 #82420
ReplyDeleteOfficials: Measurement of huge spike in radiation at Japanese nuclear plant was a mistake
http://tinyurl.com/457rlvt
TOKYO (AP) -- Emergency workers struggling to pump contaminated water from Japan's stricken nuclear complex fled from one of the troubled reactors Sunday after reporting a huge increase in radioactivity -- a spike that officials later apologetically said was inaccurate.
The apology came after employees fled the complex's Unit 2 reactor when a reading showed radiation levels had reached 10 million times higher than normal in the reactor's cooling system. Officials said they were so high that the worker taking the measurements had withdrawn before taking a second reading.
On Sunday night, though, plant operators said that while the water was contaminated with radiation, the extremely high reading was a mistake.
"The number is not credible," said Tokyo Electric Power Co. spokesman Takashi Kurita. "We are very sorry."
He said officials were taking another sample to get accurate levels, but did not know when the results would be announced.
The situation came as officials acknowledged there was radioactive water in all four of the Fukushima Dai-ichi complex's most troubled reactors, and as airborne radiation in Unit 2 measured 1,000 millisieverts per hour -- four times the limit deemed safe by the government, Kurita said.
Officials say they still don't know where the radioactive water is coming from, though government spokesman Yukio Edano has said some is "almost certainly" seeping from a cracked reactor core in one of the units.
While the discovery of the high radiation levels -- and the evacuation of workers from one reactor unit -- again delayed efforts to bring the deeply troubled complex under control, Edano insisted the situation had partially stabilized.
"We have somewhat prevented the situation from turning worse," he told reporters Sunday evening. "But the prospects are not improving in a straight line and we've expected twists and turns. The contaminated water is one of them and we'll continue to repair the damage."
The discovery over the last three days of radioactive water has been a major setback in the mission to get the plant's crucial cooling systems operating more than two weeks after a massive earthquake and tsunami.