Wednesday, March 30, 2011
3/30/11 Hanging With The Raisin Girls
Just felt like playing Tori. Too tired to work up a post, so splashing my last Cara post instead.
Re: Closing OAKBX at end of day/ 87% Cash newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5426 comments) on Wed, 03/30/2011 - 20:02 #82689 (in reply to #82683)
Pz- I know exactly what you mean. OAKBX was actually a two-step trade for me:
(a) Opened March 16 on the post-tsunami drop @ 27.81.
(b) Closed March 18 @ 28.15, thinking we would retest 1250.
(c) Instead, the market continued up.
(d) Reopened March 22 @ 28.44 based on failure of bears to take the market down. So I missed a 1% move.
(e) Closed today @ 29. Reboarding the train at higher prices paid off.
I prefer day trading with OAKBX for the simple reason there are no ST fees for 'excessive' trading. Probably would have doubled the gains using a sector fund, but I'm happy with 3%. The entire buy-and-hold half was invested, so it works out to a 1.5% return for the portfolio. Nothing to brag about, but a decent 2-week return.
Selling the GE leaves me with positions in CSCO/INTC/WFC totaling 13.4% of the portfolio. I'm OK with that even through a pullback.
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OK, I'm calling a breakout on BEXP. There. I did it. Now it can crash and burn. :)
ReplyDeleteWell it's pretty inevitable to me that we retest 1,343. the question is: where to from there. It's clear sailing to 1,440 if we clear it. I personally think we see 1,500 in 2012.
ReplyDeleteI'm convinced we see at least 1400. But I'm also convinced we see 1250 again.
ReplyDeleteTOF- I agree that the financials look good here. I saw some talk about the SOX too. Looks like we are in the process of a V bottom. SO... in my book, every index will head right back up to old highs. So, if and when the semis reach old highs, the S+P will probably be in the 1380 ballpark. I get really concerned when the semis are outperforming and extended to the upside. That's always a clue to me that a rally is about to breakdown.
ReplyDeleteI took a 9% hit in LMLP today and obviously dumped it. Luckily, it was a small position. I'm holding a small ATEA position and sold my DPTR even and rolled cash back into UNG around 11.35 in addition to the 11.25 yesterday. So, all in all, given the small hit to the port in LMLP, I'm very happy that I was able to miss the UNG decline and (since it was a HUGE position) and was able to re-load at lower levels. I'm trying my best to make it a long-term (maybe 6 months) position. My itchy trigger finger makes it tough at times:).
ReplyDeleteI'm watching the shippers here. I have no idea where the BDI is, but I would suspect its low. I'm sure there are some articles floating around about how the economy is about to fall off a cliff due to the low BDI. Hogwash. The market always rockets when the BDI is low. In such cases, there's nowhere for it to go but up...taking the market with it.
Quite a few tempting 50% pullbacks out there- LMLP (&%^!), OPXT, AFOP, FNSR, MGIC (too late), OTIV, ENTR, MIPS. A basket of these will outperform the market many fold over the next couple of months imo.
ReplyDeleteLMLP looks like a decent company. What was the driver for today's sell-off?
ReplyDeleteAnyone planning to play the NGas lottery tomorrow?
ReplyDeleteHey 2nd-
ReplyDeleteNo driver that I know of. I'm guessing it reverts to the $4 range w/in 2-3 weeks.
2nd - I have been watching CLNE, WPRT, and HEK for months now and can't seem to get myself to buy, unfortunately. I bought some HEK but sold after a 5% gain. I love the idea of nat gas but I just don't get as comfortable with plays like these because I don't understand them. The ones that I get comfortable with and can sit through volatility on are ones that I feel like I know the business well enough and feel comfortable that it's a good risk-reward. So generally speaking I don't have enough conviction on these commodities. CP and all of these other guys are way smarter than I can ever be in the commodity world. I just feel like there's way too much extraneous stuff going on.
ReplyDelete2nd- No Natty play here. We will likely see an injection in the 30BCF range. Fall.
ReplyDeleteMan. I just looked at the charts for UNG/GAZ. The leverage in GAZ is obvious.
ReplyDeleteWPRT - I guess Obama must've mentioned natty for transportation?
ReplyDeleteCopper - Down three days in a row now... I guess demand is soft since automakers are struggling to obtain parts.
ReplyDeleteBEXP breaking out? Geez its up 11% the last 5 trading days. You have high standards.
ReplyDeleteMAKO going for breakout manana
ReplyDeleteCornflake Girl, I'm in love.
ReplyDeleteWPRT 29-31 by eoy. Sold today and tried to buy back after hours and some jerk takes 20 shares. Thanks for nutin.
https://mail.google.com/mail/?hl=en&shva=1#\\
ReplyDeletet3d
AAII newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5427 comments) on Thu, 03/31/2011 - 07:12 #82701
ReplyDeletehttp://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey
dave- There is now an 8 point gap between Bulls and Bears. Sentiment, if not exactly signaling a reversal, is at least moving in that direction.
Sold metal at 1433.50 + prem to fund my bad RBY buying habits. Had hoped to wait out 1438, but chart getting iffy. Added more RBY in 4.40's yesterday afternoon. Will make another sale if needed to fund if a news panic occurs, but that will probably be the last if it gets to that.
ReplyDeleteI'm thinking I'll be eating gruel for breakfasts, peanut butter and crackers for lunches, and mac and cheese or vegetarian baked beans plus whatever I can catch for dinners for the rest of my life if I don't get back to winning soon. Just kidding :)
Murphy's Law, gold taking off, now
ReplyDeleteTARGET HIT, OH WELL
ReplyDeleteLooks like it was lucky I plowed into RBY on margin yesterday afternoon and took the overnight risk selling the metal. RBY news is out. I don't pretend to really understand it, but it looks like the drill results were not questioned except that they disallowed the huge 1900 to 2500 gpt areas completely. I would guess they will dig to those areas as soon as reasonably possible, so the proof will eventually be in the pudding, regardless whether they get included in the estimates or not.
ReplyDeleteRBY - News, looks like a 3Moz restatement.
ReplyDeleteUp $250,000 so far this am. I hope it holds...
ReplyDeleteThey have 9 months of drilling not included in those numbers, I think. I'm guessing we'll see press releases over the next week or two
ReplyDeleteoops, use calculator next time... only about $200,000
ReplyDeleteRBY....Sell, sell,sell!!!!!
ReplyDeleteYou crazy man :)
I got lucky on RBY today also as I got back in it at yesterday at $4.48. Up to $5.11 as I write.
ReplyDeleteBought some more JDSU at $20.05 this morning. Chart looks quite bullish to me.
ReplyDeletePAL - Making her way back to $7?
ReplyDeleteOpening HPQ @ 41.40 / Adding INTC @ 20.25>The Marrying Kind newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5429 comments) on Thu, 03/31/2011 - 09:49 #82716
ReplyDeleteIt's just a matter of time before investors stop chasing airheads and start dating the marrying kind.
INTC- To 100% of allocation @ 20.11 newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5430 comments) on Thu, 03/31/2011 - 09:53 #82717 (in reply to #82716)
ReplyDeleteFor better or worse....
By my calc, and if this is 3Moz, which none of this I really understand, wouldn't that put the share price just north of $7?
ReplyDeleteAnd then of course with a better defined deposit as time passes, would go on up from there, Peter Georges numbers are probably more right than wrong, they just couldn't allow the risk on the interpolation?
Isn't $7+ what we had figured earlier...?
All I know is I was just getting ready to add on the lower price when BOOM!
At least now I'm nicely green... ;)
out UNG even. I don't have a good feeling about today. Added some LMLP.
ReplyDeleteRB- I have no idea why these guys are wetting their pants over RBY when we have PXP? :)
ReplyDeletePXP - The reason we haven't shown an interest is you guys barely ever mention jack squat about it.
ReplyDeleteLike what's a fair price, etc...
Friggen HERO. I honestly don't get it.
ReplyDeleteRe: INTC- To 100% of allocation @ 20.11/ Downgraded newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5431 comments) on Thu, 03/31/2011 - 10:18 #82721 (in reply to #82717)
ReplyDeleteDowngraded by Morgan Stanley. Same old same old.
I got totally shafted this morning. I still had 700 shares of DANG from a few days ago...I closed it at $21.56 this morning, walked away and took a shower, came back and saw that I held 600 shares. Apparently I entered the order online to close the position and then it automatically entered an order to buy 600 shs 10 seconds later. Now the stock is $1 lower than when I "bought" it and my broker won't cancel the trade which is total bull shit.
ReplyDeleteCP- I'll try to put something together on it after work.
ReplyDeleteTOF- Hun?
ReplyDeleteNatty. Hey! I got it right...Injection of 19BCF.
ReplyDeletetof- WTF, man. How did they explain the buy order?
ReplyDeletePicked full UNG position back up at 11.09. 20 day at 11.08, 50 day at 11.12. If natty is to run, this should be massive support. Good area for a stop...
ReplyDelete2nd - they didn't. i asked why i would close a position and reenter it 10 seconds later: no response. i also mentioned that it was ironic how the sale price was exactly the same as the buy price: $21.5601. now i'm out about $600. not a huge deal but its pretty damn annoying. the reps explanation for not flattening the trade: the price moved too far by the time i called. so i asked him if they would have flattened it if the price was the same as when the buy was triggered and he said yes. you believe that shit?
ReplyDeleteTOF - The lesson is to never take a shower!
ReplyDeleteCP- Your a wise, all be it stinky man.
ReplyDeleteGL players!
UNG - Seriously, is it really an acceptable practice to use TA on a chart that tracks rolling futures?
ReplyDeleteI'm sure some folks do that, but I think of it like a leveraged 3x or some such sort of ETF that can move suddenly in a fashion unrelated to the index it's supposed to track.
Perhaps the TA would be applicable only for short periods of time?
Hey CP- In terms of natty, believe it or not, UNG has been responding much better to its technical levels than the actual commodity. I'm starting to think that the buying and selling thrusts in UNG have a greater effect on the commodity price than the futures traders. UNG has been very responsive to its channels and technical levels.
ReplyDeleteFor what its worth, natural gas hit its 20 day to the penny today at 4.20. That's the line in the sand...
UNG = the place where money goes to die.
ReplyDeletei'm gonna hold out on my DANG shares. Maybe i get lucky and they close green.
PXP - Mark, I never even saw your re-entry, didn't know you were long.
ReplyDeleteThat's how much you don't talk about your positions and what you think of them, the rest of us (me) don't even know what you're holding.
What's that tell ya?
TOF - Here's an article exploring some interesting aspects of Chinese equities that longs might've overlooked in their DD:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.chinaaccountingblog.com/weblog/the-emperors-new-suit-vies-.html
Not sayin' it's gospel, just that it's something to consider and perhaps often overlooked.
RBY - Bounced within $0.02 of the upper trend line, I wouldn't be surprised to see today's opening price very briefly again in the not too distant future.
ReplyDeleteThen as drill results come out, RBY is gonna be a monster.
Hey, I could be wrong too... but I doubt I'm far off.
CB - BTW, thanks for sharing your thoughts on this one.
Dang picking it up...maybe my broker was telling me something...
ReplyDeleteTOF - I was serious about that article, not sure if you read it yet but I'd like to hear your take.
ReplyDeleteSold my DANG at $21 and took the $300 hit. Still annoyed with my broker.
ReplyDeleteCopper - Nice patina today.
ReplyDeleteMy port consists of GLD, CSCO, KMI, NLY, RBY, and CALM. The last two were added just yesterday and NLY the day before. Still have 30% cash.
ReplyDeleteAll that tax money and still nothing to show for it. Looks like I'm gonna have to fly over to Tripoli myself and give Gadaffi a terminal case of lead poisoning before we can move on with our global economic recovery.
ReplyDeleteI've got RBY/NKE/GMO at the moment. The RBY pop to the upper trend line was an obvious trade I passed on, I figured I owed it to CB to stay out of the way so he could trade it.
ReplyDeleteCP- I posted when I picked up PXP in the 3/27/11 post.
ReplyDeleteOnly 2 positions 2,000 PXP @ 35.60 and 8,331 BEXP @ 33.48.
Give Gadaffi a pop from me.
Nice pop in RBY today. As I wrote yesterday, this whole dispute as to whether their resource size should be adjusted up or down by 10% is totally irrelevant for determining their cashflow for the first 5 years of their mine life, and THAT cashflow is what will determine the RBY price in two years once the mine starts operating. So we were just given a great buying opportunity, that's all.
ReplyDeleteECU is supposed to report today, and I hope to see a similar chart to that of RBY. :) So I just did a lateral move from RBY (sold at $5.20 the 1K shares I purchased at $4.60) into ECUXF (bought 5K shares at $0.99).
I still have 2K shares of RBY (1K purchased at $5.15 and 1K at $4.60). Will sell these if RBY approaches $6.
TOF -- you were right about REDF testing $8 and then going down! The question now is whether the pullback away from $8 is over and REDF is ready to move past it...
ReplyDeleteMy buy limit order for 1000 shares of SOKF was triggered today at $4.01. Should have probably waited until SOKF came out with its own accounting scandal and then bought it at $2. :))
ReplyDeleteI just calculated that I have close to half of my portfolio in ECU right now, so any sizable move up in ECU should have a noticeable impact on my port.
ReplyDeleteMark with that less than diversified portfolio I think you would want the Q man to live as long as possible. I'm heavy in oil also and worry CP may take him out over night. I'm not saying it is a right worry. It is just business right. Don't need a big gap down in HERO.
ReplyDeleteWow BEXP from $1 in 09 to $37 now. Crazy.
ReplyDeleteDavid - I think we need to give REDF a little time to pull back here and build out this base around $6.5-$7.
RB- Hmmmm. Good point.
ReplyDeleteYeah, I was worried about diversification also. That's why I opened PXP ;)
AAPL looks good right here. Broke through 50 DMA and is coming back to retest it. Could be a low risk trade with a stop around $345.
ReplyDeleteThursday/Friday take? newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5434 comments) on Thu, 03/31/2011 - 15:05 #82766
ReplyDeleteA flat close today bodes well for a gap up tomorrow on decent Payrolls.
If I were a fund manager, I'd be on my knees thanking my lucky stars (check with loannetter on that) the indexes recovered from the mid-March lows. In addition, I'd be hoping for a flat to slightly red close today-> that would pretty much nail the March bonus, and set up a great launch to a June bonus should the jobs report surprise to the upside.
I'm almost tempted to reopen OAKBX. But I've seen too many players in Vegas give it all back on the next roll. +7% for Q1 is fine with me.
What would You guys do. I have close to a 10 % gain in SGI in one day. Normally I would book it, or take half off. I think I will hold and see what happens.
ReplyDeleteNice entry on UNG, jesse. Should have played NGas in place of INTC/HPQ.
ReplyDeleteHey cb! I've lost track of where you are with RBY, but if you're holding>>>Yipee-ki-yay!
ReplyDelete10% in one day? You know what I would do.
ReplyDeleteTOF- Nice job with JDSU.
ReplyDeleteRB- I'd add...With your money, of course.
ReplyDeleteRB- OK, seriously. How many shares?
ReplyDeleteI put in a limit order right at 10%. It has went through it twice today, so it is not out of the question. i will let the market decide.
ReplyDeleteRBY - Interesting, I had a sell signal on RBY back on March 3rd, @ $5.17, right where it's trading now.
ReplyDeleteTherefore, I have to agree that anything under $5 is a buy.
SGI - Tough call there but it fits your favorite model perfectly. Steep channel, it could be another high flyer...?!?!
ReplyDeleteRally began 11/26ish and keeps on truckin', I say keep it here and see what happens.
400 shares, up under 800. I usual enter trade at 10% of port. so a 10% gain is a 1% gain in total port. But I don't want to think like that. I'm a trader (LMAO) I see set up, I buy set up, ride trend until it ends. Rinse and repeat. Well typing that cost me $100 bucks!
ReplyDeleteMark - I won't take congrats on JDSU until I realize the gains...still holding. Average around $19.9 I think between today and yesterday.
ReplyDeleteYou guys want fireworks? Watch KKD the next few days...earnings after hours today.
SGI? Damn that looks kinda parabolic. I mean who knows we have seen these suckers go from $10 to $60 so you never know. I don't know jack about the company. Maybe just let it ride with a breakeven stop? Depends on how much you want to bag those gains I guess. Those parabolic moves for the most part either keep going up or crash...
Team, YES. REALLY up or really down.
ReplyDeleteNautilus Started At Buy By Sidoti >NLSLast update: 3/31/2011 3:33:13 PM(END) Dow Jones NewswiresMarch 31, 2011 15:33 ET (19:33 GMT)
ReplyDeleteC'mon NLS
If NLS turnaround happens this sucker has huge amounts of operating leverage. It could easily go up 5 times its current price. That's why I'm long. Last quarter was a good sign that things are indeed turning around.
ReplyDeleteNLS - Interesting, in my mind it kinda fits the SBUX model I always thought sucked and couldn't justify @ $15, so no doubt it's a keeper!
ReplyDeleteThanks for jynxing me Mark. JDSU is off $0.50 after hours because of weak EXFO earnings.
ReplyDeleteMy port at the minute. IO HERO PXP SRZ PXP WY.
ReplyDeleteEvertime I type what I own up on the blog I think, Oh my God! What shit. and sell everything the next day, And guess what I am having that feeling again. But they all have nice charts. Ah wtf....
I might buy some KKD tomorrow. Down big on earnings.
ReplyDeleteTeam making me hungry.
ReplyDeleteMy RBY position is in the $1 to $2 mm range and in the green overall at present. My reasoning for owning it hasn't changed, but I am not got to sit here and say I want to be that long one issue forever, so unless it gets hammered again, my next move will be to unwind, but I think it will be a good bit above $5.50 before start trimming the position, and I plan to keep the majority of it for a few years till its producing unless I see a huge spike that I can't resist selling, like that 33% day a few months back.
ReplyDeleteIf only I had waited longer to reload....
ha RB...that's funny man (about your positions).
ReplyDeleteTeam it is actually true. It was a week or maybe two weeks ago. You or maybe CP asked me what I had. I wrote it, looked at it and I was so embarrased by it. I sold everything. So my policy will be write only one stock at a time. looking at all the positions at once is really scarry.
ReplyDeletefunny stuff robear. can't say i haven't had that feeling before...an aha moment when i'm like wtf am i holding again?
ReplyDeleteTrolling AH's for 1,000 shares of BEXP @ 36.77.
ReplyDeleteRB- OK, that's pretty much the same why I play it. My suppersized combo plate of BEXP/PXP is unusual.
I think your doing the right thing then. Put in a stop and let the market determine the outcome.
Mark, Other than its normal goodness is there anything super special going on with BEXP To warrant after hour bids? Seems every other day BEXP pulls back a buck at the open and it is quickly bought up to a positive day. right. I watch this stock fairly closely, but can't quite catch the rhythm. SAME with WNR. Here is my dream if then scenario. Oil pops to 110 at the open. My shitty oil stocks go parabolic. I sell. Q gets a bullet right between the eyes. Oil drops to under a 100 I swoop in and pick up BEXP at 31.50 and WNR at 14. I turn off the screen for a year. Hows that for a plan?
ReplyDelete