MDW BHI WPRT MHS RWT AA Thinking about AEM and why is PAAS GETTING KILLED, some silver stocks are trading strange. Sorry boys and girls I'm not much for sub $5 stocks
) options are active on total call volume of 14K contracts (20K puts) following a report that the Bolivian government is considering scrapping concessions on four silver, lead, zinc and tin mines run by Pan American Silver (PAAS
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), say's Reuters. May put option implied volatility of 58 is above its 26-week average of 45 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.
"David - I guess the only thing that can go wrong is if the precious metals market peaks. It's been a decade long bull market."
TOF, precious metals will peak only when US gets its deficit under control. One benefit of reading Hussman was a realization that it is the *government deficit* that fuels PMs and inflation rather than the Fed's monetary policy. The latter creates a short-term perception of inflation/deflation, but it is powerless to change the long-term trend of the huge government debt that we already have and the rate at which it will keep growing due to the constant deficit. The are only two ways to deal with that debt: either make an eventual default (which US will not do) or inflate it away via declining US dollar and constant high inflation. There are no other alternatives.
Down on GOOG/ Up on INTC newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5526 comments) on Thu, 04/14/2011 - 14:00 #83878 Mark- Personally, I think expectations are too high for GOOG, and too low for INTC. I won't be trading ahead of earnings for either company, but if the above is true, then I think a 2-3 day sell-off precipitated by GOOG might take sentiment to the point where an earnings/guidance surprise from INTC could be the springboard to new highs.
Oh, sorry, I am not supposed to look at the market anymore. :) But I did have a feeling that gold will break out to new highs today, and I wanted to see it with my own eyes before turning away from the market for a while. Also, I had a July $75 call on MON (which I bought for $580 a month ago), and seeing that MON is down so much, I just sold it for $155 and instead bought 2 July $65 calls on MON for $570 each. I don't like using way out of the money options, which keep decaying over time. I actually be the side that *sells* those options and pockets the premium with high probability. But now that all my portfolio is dedicated to PMs, I have no money to spend on MON, and so I have to resort to using calls.
Glow worm is a short. I predict it will put in a bear flag on low volume. The plunge to new depths. It goes down in a bull market where tech is going crazy?
Incidentally, if I hadn't stopped myself out of DANG yesterday at $19.43 and instead kept my stop at $19.25, then I would have been stopped out today at $19.25. So my only mistake with DANG was *choosing* DANG in the first place. Should have kept playing REDF instead, since REDF had an obvious and strong long-term uptrend, while DANG was actually in a long-term donwtrend. Moral of the story: it is not worth buying pullbacks in a downtrend hoping for a reversal of that trend. Instead, it is much safer to buy pullbacks in a strong long-term uptrend. But being on a long trading holiday, these are just hypothetical thoughts on my part. :)
Damn Mark...I see you got ADES...hope you make it through ok.
I was away all day but I did manage to buy the crap out of MITK in the morning...I'm pretty sure I'm single handedly responsible for its up move today. I'm so excited about this company and I have already considered it a long term hold for myself. That is, unless it doubles in the next month. I honestly think this has as good of a shot as any at being a multi bagger. The risk is that people continue to abandon using checks. While I see this happening over the longer term, there are still 60+ Billion checks cashed in the US alone each year. So it's still a huge business. If mobile deposit can capture 5% of this and MITK captures a 50% share (which is definitely possible given it owns patents on mobile deposit and has 5 of the top 10 banks using their software) then MITK should be able to generate $150 Million in revenues a year assuming it charges $0.10 per check deposited. At a 85% gross margin rate (which is what their margins are on mobile deposits) then you get a gross profit of $127 Million. Annual expenses are currently around $5 Million so if you double that you get net income of $117 Million. After tax earnings would be $76 Million or $4/share. Most new technology companies can trade at 20-30 times earnings so that would be a $80 to $120 price target if all went well. Obviously I wouldn't expect that but I think $20 is definitely reasonable.
AEM, Tele that chart is strange considering golds lofty levels. I think hedge book. Are you buying on valuation,technicals or possible up coming news event. If you don't mind me asking.
[13:13] {Threei} 12:17:04Pan American Silver Corp. (USA Bolivia Mining Minister: Bolivia govt considering withdrawing mining concessions for PAAS and Glencore - financial press [13:13] {Threei} - Bolivia President Morales plans to announce a decree May 1 to "dismantle the privatization model." Bolivia state mining company Corp. Minera de Bolivia, known as Comibol, may rescind contracts with companies including Glencore International, Pan American Silver, and Coeur d'Alene Mines.
Yogi the Bear, aka RoBear none of the above really I'm just playing a little game.
I do not think AEM hedges, but not 100% sure. Valuation, I think it has been a laggard and deserves to play catch up here, look at NEM. I have a view similar to David with respect to the gold market and have had a core holding since about 1986 or so. Never sell and probably will die with the position.
The game I like to play is trying to take advantage of the algos and day traders based on the day's range. Generally you can test this yourself, find 3-5 stocks you like and know that day traders or skittish traders frequent in. They close their positions in the last 30 minutes. So I'm taking advantage of their desire not to hold overnight and am buying on their weakness.
The drawback is that you have overnight risk, but this does not bother me and I think an overblown fear. I then sell it back to them during the first hour of the open. High percentage pattern with practice, just favor this with trending markets and strong stocks so its to your advantage.
Sometimes you get caught, but I can usually get out of it not too hurt. I have been doing this more lately. Any its just something I used to do 1998-2000 and it seems to be working again. HA HA, they will probably bite me tomorrow.
RBY - My guess is traders were cautious and fearful of a pullback in gold that didn't materialize, that plus there may have been some earlier selling due to lack of news. Seems folks are kinda pissed RBY isn't chunking out news on a daily basis when RBY has already laid out a plan to process two 10 ton core samplings and will "take a while". They also have mentioned they don't want to help day traders by scheduling announcements in advance.
I could be wrong of course, RBY underperformed GDXJ so maybe traders would rather play a stronger stock that moves instead of throwing "dead money" on RBY just to sit and watch no action?
I figure gold will reach my target but may pullback first so I'd like to add to RBY if/when that happens. Kinda kicking myself for not adding under $4.40 but I was in the NKE trade at the time...
GS - They're a PITA, did they mention Saudi Arabia cut production slightly? I'd be afraid of someone getting to Gadaffi early some morning when he steps outside to take a leak.
RBY is acting crazy similar to SORL where I cut the bungee cord yesterday. Won't cut RBY though since I am in at 4.48. Margin to spare and more faith in gold/miners. Could change of course if RBY throws me into the torture chamber. Would be "max pain".
RBY - 4/16 MP is $5, a magnet that may have been keeping it down? 5/21 MP is $5 as well, which kinda seems to fit with the speculated June date of the next drilling results...?.?.?
Also fits with my target of $1570 gold early July...
AONE/RBY - Since I feel there's still time to find an add opportunity on RBY between now and early July(since RBY is waiting for bulk analysis and impatient traders want to jump on something that's moving, not "under performing"), I'm gonna try my hand at AONE.
Or, perhaps trader's impatience with RBY may produce an add opportunity tomorrow????
Up here guys...
ReplyDeleteYeah, I hear those adds all day long. Did you jump in TOF?
ReplyDeletePAAS- That's what scares the chit out of me.
ReplyDeleteHow the hell is this market flat?
ReplyDeleteMITK.OB - Sounds pretty good, I like the smartphone with charge card reader idea.
ReplyDeleteZIP - Broke through 200SMA, but RSI(7) looks high now...
GLW looks interesting here.
ReplyDeleteMy current mix
ReplyDeleteMDW
BHI
WPRT
MHS
RWT
AA
Thinking about AEM and why is PAAS GETTING KILLED, some silver stocks are trading strange. Sorry boys and girls I'm not much for sub $5 stocks
Geographic location risk
ReplyDeletePan American Silver (PAAS
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) options are active on total call volume of 14K contracts (20K puts) following a report that the Bolivian government is considering scrapping concessions on four silver, lead, zinc and tin mines run by Pan American Silver (PAAS
Loading... Loading...
), say's Reuters. May put option implied volatility of 58 is above its 26-week average of 45 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.
"David - I guess the only thing that can go wrong is if the precious metals market peaks. It's been a decade long bull market."
ReplyDeleteTOF, precious metals will peak only when US gets its deficit under control. One benefit of reading Hussman was a realization that it is the *government deficit* that fuels PMs and inflation rather than the Fed's monetary policy. The latter creates a short-term perception of inflation/deflation, but it is powerless to change the long-term trend of the huge government debt that we already have and the rate at which it will keep growing due to the constant deficit. The are only two ways to deal with that debt: either make an eventual default (which US will not do) or inflate it away via declining US dollar and constant high inflation. There are no other alternatives.
Down on GOOG/ Up on INTC newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5526 comments) on Thu, 04/14/2011 - 14:00 #83878
ReplyDeleteMark- Personally, I think expectations are too high for GOOG, and too low for INTC. I won't be trading ahead of earnings for either company, but if the above is true, then I think a 2-3 day sell-off precipitated by GOOG might take sentiment to the point where an earnings/guidance surprise from INTC could be the springboard to new highs.
"damnnnnn REDF!"
ReplyDeleteExaccccctly!
Oh, sorry, I am not supposed to look at the market anymore. :) But I did have a feeling that gold will break out to new highs today, and I wanted to see it with my own eyes before turning away from the market for a while. Also, I had a July $75 call on MON (which I bought for $580 a month ago), and seeing that MON is down so much, I just sold it for $155 and instead bought 2 July $65 calls on MON for $570 each. I don't like using way out of the money options, which keep decaying over time. I actually be the side that *sells* those options and pockets the premium with high probability. But now that all my portfolio is dedicated to PMs, I have no money to spend on MON, and so I have to resort to using calls.
No GLW comments?
ReplyDeleteBORN...I guess that one's a fraud also.
ReplyDeleteGLW - If it looks to close better than $19.34?
ReplyDeleteGLW has gorilla glass. Easy trade bounced off 200dma today. If you want to spec buy here with stop below lows of last three days.
ReplyDeletewe all know the drill, rinse & repeat
I took almost all small China stocks off my screens. Trading is hard enough, who needs the extra grief?
ReplyDeleteCREE...Of course.
ReplyDeleteT3D- Thanks. That's kinda the idea. I'll give it a shot if I can get an easy entry.
ADES baby!!
BORN - I think the concern involves the concept of how ownership isn't legally enforceable, the Yuan should rise, China needs to tighten.
ReplyDeleteThese are my guesses, prices tell the story no matter what I might think I know.
BTU - Don't forget about this one?
ReplyDeleteGlow worm is a short. I predict it will put in a bear flag on low volume. The plunge to new depths. It goes down in a bull market where tech is going crazy?
ReplyDeleteIncidentally, if I hadn't stopped myself out of DANG yesterday at $19.43 and instead kept my stop at $19.25, then I would have been stopped out today at $19.25. So my only mistake with DANG was *choosing* DANG in the first place. Should have kept playing REDF instead, since REDF had an obvious and strong long-term uptrend, while DANG was actually in a long-term donwtrend. Moral of the story: it is not worth buying pullbacks in a downtrend hoping for a reversal of that trend. Instead, it is much safer to buy pullbacks in a strong long-term uptrend. But being on a long trading holiday, these are just hypothetical thoughts on my part. :)
ReplyDeleteTechnology?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.reuters.com/article/2011/04/14/us-earnings-idUSTRE73D3ZX20110414?feedType=RSS&feedName=businessNews&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+reuters%2FbusinessNews+%28News+%2F+US+%2F+Business+News%29
t3d
David- I agree with your hypothetical. Still trying to get myself to ONLY do that.
ReplyDeleteRB- We agree on the flag part. Thanks.
ReplyDeleteADES/AAPL off for a round trip total of $833 smackers. Wheeeeeeee!!!!!
ReplyDeleteAll right, strictly for a long-term hold (and not for trading), just bought 1000 shares of CADC at $3.06.
ReplyDeleteNVDA trying to beak out of it's wedge again.
ReplyDeleteAEM at 65.32
ReplyDeleteGOOG pooper...
ReplyDeleteI'll buy drinks tonight. Later Gators.
I want to buy something, Just don't see any setups.
ReplyDeleteDavid you want to trade, so why don't you just open a little trading account and just don't look at your core positions.
Damn Mark...I see you got ADES...hope you make it through ok.
ReplyDeleteI was away all day but I did manage to buy the crap out of MITK in the morning...I'm pretty sure I'm single handedly responsible for its up move today. I'm so excited about this company and I have already considered it a long term hold for myself. That is, unless it doubles in the next month. I honestly think this has as good of a shot as any at being a multi bagger. The risk is that people continue to abandon using checks. While I see this happening over the longer term, there are still 60+ Billion checks cashed in the US alone each year. So it's still a huge business. If mobile deposit can capture 5% of this and MITK captures a 50% share (which is definitely possible given it owns patents on mobile deposit and has 5 of the top 10 banks using their software) then MITK should be able to generate $150 Million in revenues a year assuming it charges $0.10 per check deposited. At a 85% gross margin rate (which is what their margins are on mobile deposits) then you get a gross profit of $127 Million. Annual expenses are currently around $5 Million so if you double that you get net income of $117 Million. After tax earnings would be $76 Million or $4/share. Most new technology companies can trade at 20-30 times earnings so that would be a $80 to $120 price target if all went well. Obviously I wouldn't expect that but I think $20 is definitely reasonable.
AEM, Tele that chart is strange considering golds lofty levels. I think hedge book. Are you buying on valuation,technicals or possible up coming news event. If you don't mind me asking.
ReplyDeleteCDE & PAAS had news...from Vad's log...
ReplyDelete[13:13] {Threei} 12:17:04Pan American Silver Corp. (USA Bolivia Mining Minister: Bolivia govt considering withdrawing mining concessions for PAAS and Glencore - financial press
[13:13] {Threei} - Bolivia President Morales plans to announce a decree May 1 to "dismantle the privatization model." Bolivia state mining company Corp. Minera de Bolivia, known as Comibol, may rescind contracts with companies including Glencore International, Pan American Silver, and Coeur d'Alene Mines.
damn this market is gonna go higher. VIX is low, the GOOG / JPM / AA earnings reactions were awful....yet we go higher.
ReplyDeleteYogi the Bear, aka RoBear none of the above really I'm just playing a little game.
ReplyDeleteI do not think AEM hedges, but not 100% sure.
Valuation, I think it has been a laggard and deserves to play catch up here, look at NEM.
I have a view similar to David with respect to the gold market and have had a core holding since about 1986 or so. Never sell and probably will die with the position.
The game I like to play is trying to take advantage of the algos and day traders based on the day's range. Generally you can test this yourself, find 3-5 stocks you like and know that day traders or skittish traders frequent in. They close their positions in the last 30 minutes. So I'm taking advantage of their desire not to hold overnight and am buying on their weakness.
The drawback is that you have overnight risk, but this does not bother me and I think an overblown fear. I then sell it back to them during the first hour of the open. High percentage pattern with practice, just favor this with trending markets and strong stocks so its to your advantage.
Sometimes you get caught, but I can usually get out of it not too hurt. I have been doing this more lately. Any its just something I used to do 1998-2000 and it seems to be working again. HA HA, they will probably bite me tomorrow.
Hope this helps, sorry no magic. t3d.
I kinda do that once in a while also T3D. How much do you use in this type of play? I usually stick to about 30K.
ReplyDeletePretty crazy trading today in RBY. Any ideas?
ReplyDeleteRBY - My guess is traders were cautious and fearful of a pullback in gold that didn't materialize, that plus there may have been some earlier selling due to lack of news. Seems folks are kinda pissed RBY isn't chunking out news on a daily basis when RBY has already laid out a plan to process two 10 ton core samplings and will "take a while". They also have mentioned they don't want to help day traders by scheduling announcements in advance.
ReplyDeleteI could be wrong of course, RBY underperformed GDXJ so maybe traders would rather play a stronger stock that moves instead of throwing "dead money" on RBY just to sit and watch no action?
I figure gold will reach my target but may pullback first so I'd like to add to RBY if/when that happens. Kinda kicking myself for not adding under $4.40 but I was in the NKE trade at the time...
NKE reached my op-ex target today...
Thanks CP.
ReplyDeleteOK, I'll admit it. The reason I didn't jump back in PXP/BEXP on this last pull back was GS's call on oil. There, I said it. Now leave me alone.
Don't forget the Sharks start their playoff run tonight.
ReplyDeleteGS - They're a PITA, did they mention Saudi Arabia cut production slightly? I'd be afraid of someone getting to Gadaffi early some morning when he steps outside to take a leak.
ReplyDeleteAONE - Take a look at this chart, looks like a nice bottom formation.
ReplyDeleteMP for this and next month is $7...
RBY is acting crazy similar to SORL where I cut the bungee cord yesterday. Won't cut RBY though since I am in at 4.48. Margin to spare and more faith in gold/miners. Could change of course if RBY throws me into the torture chamber. Would be "max pain".
ReplyDeleteAAPL - 4/16 MP = $335, 5/21 MP = $335
ReplyDeleteRBY - 4/16 MP is $5, a magnet that may have been keeping it down? 5/21 MP is $5 as well, which kinda seems to fit with the speculated June date of the next drilling results...?.?.?
ReplyDeleteAlso fits with my target of $1570 gold early July...
AONE/RBY - Since I feel there's still time to find an add opportunity on RBY between now and early July(since RBY is waiting for bulk analysis and impatient traders want to jump on something that's moving, not "under performing"), I'm gonna try my hand at AONE.
ReplyDeleteOr, perhaps trader's impatience with RBY may produce an add opportunity tomorrow????
new post
ReplyDelete