JB > No I wish I was still long REDF...sold at $7...ouch.
2nd > I'm no longer looking to short term trade this market but if I had to guess I would say its just buying time here before moving higher.
I've been reading One Up On Wall Street by Peter Lynch (for the 10th time) and its a great reminder of how dumb it is to focus on the short term gyrations of stock movements and the markets in general. After all, stocks are companies and the ones that make great investments take time to develop into great investments. That's what I have been focusing on...trying to find great long term investments. My list so far includes:
Short strength v Buy weakness newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5542 comments) on Tue, 04/19/2011 - 09:44 #84157 Anyone have a bias going into IBM/INTC earnings? Can't say I have enough conviction to trade either way ahead of the news. But my bias would be to short any optimism.
We have MAJOR seasonality due post tax day and pre Good Friday. Especially so if they are both in the same week. Basically, the market never goes down in this instance. If the market does not chug higher the rest of this week, there's no doubt we're seeing a major change of character. Looks like INTC has tons of room to run to the upside and IBM has lots of room to the downside. Probably means they both go up.
Per ST:
"Again, we have some pretty strong seasonality for the bulls here, but the bad part is that we're not nearly oversold despite heavy losses on Monday, we have the negative technical development of dropping below last week's low, and the additional negatives discussed before. The index could save itself by holding above 1300ish, but at this point that looks like little more than a toss-up odds-wise."
My trading has been piss poor. Out of my tiny position in CREE calls -10% and yes, you guessed it, back in UNG 11.05, 2.3% HIGHER than where I sold it yesterday:( Once again, tested the 20 day to the penny at 11.12 and bounced lower.
One of these days, she's gonna blow and there will be no looking back. When it happens, I think it will be in the blink of an eye leaving everyone in the dust. Speaking of which, the UNG Yahoo board used to have literally 1,000 posts a day. Today, there are 17 posts. The prior 4 days: 22, 11, 7, and 28. I truly think that all retail players have lost all of their money in UNG and will never be back...leaving the big boys as the only ones left to play.
In the meantime, I wait and roll with the punches.
Steel demand is forecast to increase, and a miner like FCX with a copper production cost of $1/lb with copper trading north of $4/lb, sounds like a recipe for success to me.
Dollar down, TLT up, I guess whomever is buying TLT doesn't mind that their loss on the dollar is greater than their gain on TLT, their time horizon is beyond today apparently.
JB - If I had to guess all we're doing here is churning before moving higher. Corp earnings are still very strong. The only impediment is a blowup in the Middle East which will shoot oil higher.
Man, look at REDF go. I don't even want to bother with the what could have beens.
Just checking in, folks. I see today is a good day to bitch about what could have happened if I held my DANG and REDF, and I will join the group in bitching... But then, the losses I took on REDF and DANG were the price I paid for my recent peace of mind (no short-term trading) and all the free time I now have!
Besides, when preparing my long-term positions, I made a lateral move from CSCO at $17.40 into a somewhat larger position in GDXJ at $39.60. As of right now, at least, that move seems like a good one.
There was one item left on my "to do" list of things to do for my long-term positions: I wanted to have more GMO. And today I finally decided to double my position from 1K shares to 2K shares and purchased 1K shares at $4.75. How did I do that, you might ask? Easy: I just sold 10 September $7 puts at $2.25. I seriously doubt GMO will rise above $7 by September, and so this is pretty much a guaranteed buy, at $4.75. The big move in GMO will happen when they get their permits in early 2012, at which point GMO will probably double or triple. But until then, there will be no serious catalysts for GMO. Another great aspect of buying GMO via selling long-term puts is that I am already on margin, and with this strategy I won't pay any extra margin interest on GMO until the shares are assigned to me in September. :)
Mark > I've seen this happen before...in late 1999. Things are getting that way with these China/India stocks. But REDF in particular could probably go all the way up to $30-$40 before it gets China stock / 1999 dot com stock ridiculous. Back in August last year I was thinking this would eventually happen with REDF given the big investment India is making in broadband access. Not sure why I ever sold...oh yeah, because they did some shady arms length deal with their CEO.
Anyway, now it's MITK's turn! This will be a $1 Billion company (currently $120 Million) in 2012-13.
As far as banks go....I kinda think this is the final dump before it becomes a great long term buy. I was looking at how tech stocks traded back in the early part of last decade and the banking stocks are following them in many ways. Huge crash, followed by reflexive buys then another dip before starting a long term trend up.
Holiday shortened week w/ mega bullish seasonality. Low volume. Big drops rarely happen during holiday weeks. Like clockwork, traders tend to run up the momentum small cap plays during these weeks. We should see these guys "in play" all week. Lets try to find some more.
Illini - I LOVE CTCT. I think it's a great long term play. I use their software for my web business. The company stock is a bit overvalued here so it will most likely not go up any crazy amount but I think they will be adding services over time and can see them becoming a big cloud play. I think they could be a 5 bagger over the next 3-5 years.
Sold UNG +.10. Per recent data, to garner support for the energy bill, nat gas producers are flooding the market with as much natural gas as they can possibly produce to keep prices as low as possible. They have taken on a record short position in nat gas futures to offset this increased production. So... not really trusting this UNG break above 20 dma. Probably a mistake, but I had too much capital at risk to play games with the producers ahead of this bill.
Re: $VIX is back in 15's/ Sell-off in the wings newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5543 comments) on Tue, 04/19/2011 - 15:59 #84201 (in reply to #84197) jack- I can't believe the VIX numbers. I think it spikes soon enough. We almost have to move down.
I was wondering why my port didn't budge today. I forgot about those darn CREE calls. I had NO idea they were reporting today. Pure luck on my part.
Given INTC blockbuster earnings, SOX looks like a "W" double bottom pattern at 420. It may not have any resistance until 470's. Hopefully, my MIPS can tag along:)
CSCO is indeed trading up after hours. I have been hoping on this one for quite a while myself. CSCO is the largest single stock position in my portofolio.
There was one thing that I did right during the Japan sell-off (besides picking up some ECUXF at $0.86), which was to buy some May $40 puts on VXX at $6.95 when VXX was at $37. These puts have doubled since then. I have a temptation to close them now, but then I just checked the VIX futures and I see that the April futures closed today at $16 while the May futures closed at $19.10. So VXX will be having a MAJOR value destruction every day that such a huge contango is present.
My thinking now is that yesterday's low in S&P of 1295 was good enough of a pullback after the incessant rally from March 16 to April 6. If S&P drops below that low soon, then I would say that a double top is really in place and S&P is going WAY down, until Bernanke's nerves give in and he announces QE3. So I'll close my VXX puts if S&P drops below $1295.
I just realized another great aspect of buying more GMO via selling long-dated deep in the money puts: I got a lot of cash upfront for those puts, and that cash reduced my margin balance and the interest I am paying to OptionsHouse! So I have actually increased my leverage AND reduced the interest I am paying for that leverage. :)
Molybdenum - "April 11 (Reuters) - Moly Mines Ltd said China Development Bank (CDB) had doubled its financing for developing the base-minerals explorer's Spinifex Ridge molybdenum and copper project in Western Australia, sending its Toronto-listed shares up 16 percent."
Up here ladies...
ReplyDeleteWhat happened to the Briefing.com earnings calendar?
ReplyDeleteMorning bro.
hey bro - decided that a 24x7 Demerol dip is the way to go
ReplyDeleteThere's one on Yahoo...
ReplyDeletehttp://biz.yahoo.com/research/earncal/today.html
I'm more inclined to short strength than buy weakness. Anyone else with a bias?
ReplyDeleteTake a look at the shakeout in AAPL at the open.
ReplyDelete2nd- I'm going to stick my data play...for now!
ReplyDeleteBTU getting drubbed on outlook.
ReplyDeleteJB > No I wish I was still long REDF...sold at $7...ouch.
ReplyDelete2nd > I'm no longer looking to short term trade this market but if I had to guess I would say its just buying time here before moving higher.
I've been reading One Up On Wall Street by Peter Lynch (for the 10th time) and its a great reminder of how dumb it is to focus on the short term gyrations of stock movements and the markets in general. After all, stocks are companies and the ones that make great investments take time to develop into great investments. That's what I have been focusing on...trying to find great long term investments. My list so far includes:
MITK
REDF
VRA
BCPC
DXPE
CTCT
Short strength v Buy weakness newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5542 comments) on Tue, 04/19/2011 - 09:44 #84157
ReplyDeleteAnyone have a bias going into IBM/INTC earnings? Can't say I have enough conviction to trade either way ahead of the news. But my bias would be to short any optimism.
TCK?
ReplyDeleteMan, they've been hitting the sell button hard on GS.
ReplyDeleteDay 2 for DANG.
ReplyDeleteLooks like we might head lower. The market normally wouldn't give passengers a 2nd chance.
critical level in ES, we break below the opening range, could get rough
ReplyDeleteSSO off at 51.88. I'll take the 200 bucks. GS scares me.
ReplyDeleteJB- TOTALLY agree, thus my timely exit.
ReplyDeleteTake a look at BAC.
ReplyDeleteHistorical hiccup ;)
ReplyDeleteI am bullish 2nd. Just not in financials or Mega cap tech or Precious metals.
ReplyDelete2nd- YEP!
ReplyDeleteWe have MAJOR seasonality due post tax day and pre Good Friday. Especially so if they are both in the same week. Basically, the market never goes down in this instance. If the market does not chug higher the rest of this week, there's no doubt we're seeing a major change of character. Looks like INTC has tons of room to run to the upside and IBM has lots of room to the downside. Probably means they both go up.
ReplyDeletePer ST:
"Again, we have some pretty strong seasonality for the bulls here, but the bad part is that we're not nearly oversold despite heavy losses on Monday, we have the negative technical development of dropping below last week's low, and the additional negatives discussed before. The index could save itself by holding above 1300ish, but at this point that looks like little more than a toss-up odds-wise."
AKAM tells it all. I've been watching this one like a hawk. Nice little 2 day rally and strong open today...then...
ReplyDeleteGMO - Like a fool, bidding to add @ $5.02 ---- Take a chance, take a chance on me.... ----
ReplyDeleteIt's filling....
Load up now fellas!
ReplyDelete"Geithner: No Risk U.S. Will Lose AAA Credit Rating"
AKAM - am short the May 35 puts. Maybe just an effort to control the rate of advance
ReplyDeleteIf I were to guess, it will be an ugly, ugly day on Wednesday.
ReplyDeleteMy trading has been piss poor. Out of my tiny position in CREE calls -10% and yes, you guessed it, back in UNG 11.05, 2.3% HIGHER than where I sold it yesterday:( Once again, tested the 20 day to the penny at 11.12 and bounced lower.
ReplyDeleteOne of these days, she's gonna blow and there will be no looking back. When it happens, I think it will be in the blink of an eye leaving everyone in the dust. Speaking of which, the UNG Yahoo board used to have literally 1,000 posts a day. Today, there are 17 posts. The prior 4 days: 22, 11, 7, and 28. I truly think that all retail players have lost all of their money in UNG and will never be back...leaving the big boys as the only ones left to play.
In the meantime, I wait and roll with the punches.
Steel demand is forecast to increase, and a miner like FCX with a copper production cost of $1/lb with copper trading north of $4/lb, sounds like a recipe for success to me.
ReplyDeleteDollar down, TLT up, I guess whomever is buying TLT doesn't mind that their loss on the dollar is greater than their gain on TLT, their time horizon is beyond today apparently.
ReplyDeleteREDF going to $13 tomorrow before its inevitable pullback to $8?
ReplyDeleteGS has been a buyer, ES, again today and more so now as we touch near the highs. I can't get a buy signal so I'm just sitting on my hands.
ReplyDeletewow, that REDF is a real screamer tof. hope you find a spot to jump back in
ReplyDeleteJB - If I had to guess all we're doing here is churning before moving higher. Corp earnings are still very strong. The only impediment is a blowup in the Middle East which will shoot oil higher.
ReplyDeleteMan, look at REDF go. I don't even want to bother with the what could have beens.
now GS has flipped back and is on the offer, must be some super secret black box trading methodology
ReplyDeleteagree tof. looking at 2/3 min charts the ES looks like it's just going to chop along. some selling pressure now. my guess is that we close at 05.
ReplyDeleteREDF/SIFY/QIHU/DANG/ZIP...on and on...WTF is going on. I've never seen anything like this.
ReplyDeleteI think those were all stocks that I recommended yesterday. :)
ReplyDeleteJust checking in, folks. I see today is a good day to bitch about what could have happened if I held my DANG and REDF, and I will join the group in bitching... But then, the losses I took on REDF and DANG were the price I paid for my recent peace of mind (no short-term trading) and all the free time I now have!
ReplyDeleteBesides, when preparing my long-term positions, I made a lateral move from CSCO at $17.40 into a somewhat larger position in GDXJ at $39.60. As of right now, at least, that move seems like a good one.
There was one item left on my "to do" list of things to do for my long-term positions: I wanted to have more GMO. And today I finally decided to double my position from 1K shares to 2K shares and purchased 1K shares at $4.75. How did I do that, you might ask? Easy: I just sold 10 September $7 puts at $2.25. I seriously doubt GMO will rise above $7 by September, and so this is pretty much a guaranteed buy, at $4.75. The big move in GMO will happen when they get their permits in early 2012, at which point GMO will probably double or triple. But until then, there will be no serious catalysts for GMO. Another great aspect of buying GMO via selling long-term puts is that I am already on margin, and with this strategy I won't pay any extra margin interest on GMO until the shares are assigned to me in September. :)
Even QPSA? You've got to be kidding me.
ReplyDeleteCP- Looks like GMO is just caught up in all the RE crap.
ReplyDeleteBidding GMO @ 5.00.
ReplyDeleteMark > I've seen this happen before...in late 1999. Things are getting that way with these China/India stocks. But REDF in particular could probably go all the way up to $30-$40 before it gets China stock / 1999 dot com stock ridiculous. Back in August last year I was thinking this would eventually happen with REDF given the big investment India is making in broadband access. Not sure why I ever sold...oh yeah, because they did some shady arms length deal with their CEO.
ReplyDeleteAnyway, now it's MITK's turn! This will be a $1 Billion company (currently $120 Million) in 2012-13.
QpSA IS UP. Isn't that a pump and dump play. Why are you watching that one?
ReplyDeleteAs far as banks go....I kinda think this is the final dump before it becomes a great long term buy. I was looking at how tech stocks traded back in the early part of last decade and the banking stocks are following them in many ways. Huge crash, followed by reflexive buys then another dip before starting a long term trend up.
ReplyDeleteMark-
ReplyDeleteHoliday shortened week w/ mega bullish seasonality. Low volume. Big drops rarely happen during holiday weeks. Like clockwork, traders tend to run up the momentum small cap plays during these weeks. We should see these guys "in play" all week. Lets try to find some more.
Just picked up MIPS again at 9.93.
TF,
ReplyDeleteYou getting into CTCT as it breaks further down today? Buying opportunity? Also, have you ever checked out LOGM, another software stock?
RB- TOF brought up QPSA a few months ago. I asked about 20 guys at work about it and non of them have heard of it. Kinda let it go.
ReplyDeleteJesse: "MIPS" sounds like something you caght in China. You better get a shot of penicillin now.
ReplyDeleteIllini - I LOVE CTCT. I think it's a great long term play. I use their software for my web business. The company stock is a bit overvalued here so it will most likely not go up any crazy amount but I think they will be adding services over time and can see them becoming a big cloud play. I think they could be a 5 bagger over the next 3-5 years.
ReplyDeleteGMO - Yes, there is a correlation with RE's apparently, GMO is apparently included in the REE ETF, so that might be a large part of it.
ReplyDeleteChina reclassified moly as a strategic, and so maybe this is cause?
SHZ doesn't mine RE's either, as far as I'm aware.
Picked up some LMLP but didn't get nearly what I wanted. Its been running away from me. 28 consecutive sessions closing below 10 day moving average.
ReplyDeleteI think the VIX is a pretty strong indication that the market is not ready to sell off, for what its worth.
ReplyDeleteSold my Chinese diseased MIPS:) and picked up its May $9 calls for 1.30.
ReplyDeleteSold UNG +.10. Per recent data, to garner support for the energy bill, nat gas producers are flooding the market with as much natural gas as they can possibly produce to keep prices as low as possible. They have taken on a record short position in nat gas futures to offset this increased production. So... not really trusting this UNG break above 20 dma. Probably a mistake, but I had too much capital at risk to play games with the producers ahead of this bill.
ReplyDeleteRe: $VIX is back in 15's/ Sell-off in the wings newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5543 comments) on Tue, 04/19/2011 - 15:59 #84201 (in reply to #84197)
ReplyDeletejack- I can't believe the VIX numbers. I think it spikes soon enough. We almost have to move down.
CC - I see BC finally returned from his detox treatment facility?
ReplyDeleteDo you guys think Bernanke's been selling puts on Treasuries?
ReplyDeleteCADC - Ready to begin a leg up?
ReplyDeleteI'm glad your out of the CREE calls Jesse :)...Yikes.
ReplyDeleteRally time tomorrow. Everyone is going to look at IBM/INTC. Nobody gives a shit about CREE except Jesse and I.
ReplyDeleteVMW!!
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteGuess they shouldn't have held the CC for IBM ;)
ReplyDeleteMark - Are you censoring yourself?
ReplyDelete"Mark - Are you censoring yourself?" About time somebody is.
ReplyDeleteAny thoughts on picking up some semis after hours based on INTC performance. AMAT, NVDA come to mind?
ReplyDeleteMark, what is the deal with VMW?
Mark-
ReplyDeleteI was wondering why my port didn't budge today. I forgot about those darn CREE calls. I had NO idea they were reporting today. Pure luck on my part.
Given INTC blockbuster earnings, SOX looks like a "W" double bottom pattern at 420. It may not have any resistance until 470's. Hopefully, my MIPS can tag along:)
Hopefully INTC will pull up other tech stocks including even CSCO, which really needs an anti-depressant plus a dose of vitamins.
ReplyDeleteilini,
ReplyDeleteCSCO is indeed trading up after hours. I have been hoping on this one for quite a while myself. CSCO is the largest single stock position in my portofolio.
There was one thing that I did right during the Japan sell-off (besides picking up some ECUXF at $0.86), which was to buy some May $40 puts on VXX at $6.95 when VXX was at $37. These puts have doubled since then. I have a temptation to close them now, but then I just checked the VIX futures and I see that the April futures closed today at $16 while the May futures closed at $19.10. So VXX will be having a MAJOR value destruction every day that such a huge contango is present.
ReplyDeleteMy thinking now is that yesterday's low in S&P of 1295 was good enough of a pullback after the incessant rally from March 16 to April 6. If S&P drops below that low soon, then I would say that a double top is really in place and S&P is going WAY down, until Bernanke's nerves give in and he announces QE3. So I'll close my VXX puts if S&P drops below $1295.
I just realized another great aspect of buying more GMO via selling long-dated deep in the money puts: I got a lot of cash upfront for those puts, and that cash reduced my margin balance and the interest I am paying to OptionsHouse! So I have actually increased my leverage AND reduced the interest I am paying for that leverage. :)
ReplyDeleteMolybdenum - "April 11 (Reuters) - Moly Mines Ltd said China Development Bank (CDB) had doubled its financing for developing the base-minerals explorer's Spinifex Ridge molybdenum and copper project in Western Australia, sending its Toronto-listed shares up 16 percent."
ReplyDeletehttp://www.reuters.com/article/2011/04/11/molymines-idUSL3E7FB2K320110411?feedType=RSS&feedName=basicMaterialsSector&rpc=43
new post (which includes CSCO)
ReplyDelete$11B Glencore IPO - Is Glencore dumping on an unsuspecting public/is this ringing a few alarm bells?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-04-14/goldman-sachs-misses-out-on-11-billion-glencore-initial-sale.html