I'm hoping all the bad news is priced in. Never know for sure on a stock under siege like this, but the value should show through in time.
I was looking at Carlsberg (CABGY) today as they are under pressure from getting 35% of their business from Russia, but not cheap enough for the risk for me. Maybe if it pulls back another 15% I'd jump in.
That hasn't really gotten dinged on the US exchanges. Pretty solid stable growth. My only concern would be dilution. Seems like shares outstanding have grown significnatly the past 10 years.
I actually like that pick a lot though. How did you find it? I noticed they paid what looks like a $0.29 dividend this year. Is this a one time thing or are they changing their payout policy?
I bought back into SNE today at $19.01. Not the greatest entry but I think that one has to go higher over time. It's trading at a big discount to book value and I think it's another case where the sum of the parts is worth a lot more than its whole, just like NOK at $3.50. I think it can get to $30+ if the market prices the sum of the parts properly. The crown jewel in my mind is Sony Pictures. Content is what people are clamoring for now.
CABGY looks good but I have to say BUD looks like the best one valuation wise vs growth etc. TSGTY has the best compounded growth rate. There are a lot of Indian breweries that don't have any way of investing in them unfortunately. Another one that is interesting is SMGBY, but it looks like they're a conglomerate. They have paid pretty hefty dividends the past 10 years and have the best growth rate at 19% compounded over the past 9 years. They paid out about $7.25 in dividends the past 10 years.:
P/FCF: CABGY - 17.8 SAM - 77.7 BUD - 18.0 HEINY - 19.6 FMX - 39.7 TAP - 12.3
P/E: CABGY - 15.2 SAM - 45.3 BUD - 12.5 HEINY - 10.5 FMX - 28.22 TAP - 18.9
P/BV: CABGY - 1.16 SAM - 10.55 BUD - 3.57 HEINY - 2.43 FMX - 2.82 TAP - 1.24
Growth Rates: 9 year compounded: CABGY - 8.2% SAM - 14.6 BUD - 15.7 HEINY - 8.5 FMX - 8.9 TAP - (0.3)
There was a portfolio manager on TV I respect talking about CABGY. I was looking for some stocks beaten up due to the Russia/Ukraine mess and this seemed like a good play. Putin may cut off the natural gas, but no way he cuts off the alcohol.
But, I didn't realize the P/E on BUD had gotten so low. When I looked at it previously, it was always high. Have to do some more digging into that. BUD has the best economies of scale and supposedly excellent management.
My trading account is at new highs for the year thanks to BALT/FLWS/BSBR and to some extent NLY coming back. Probably about time for another round of disappointment? Hoping FLWS really begins to take flight, earnings are just around the corner on the 29th BMO.
Really still seems that people are getting negative on the market, but it really is just portions of the market getting hit, and they are the parts that should get hit.
I have some Ying-Ling Black & Tan that was brought to me last week sitting unopened, in preparation for summer yesterday recharged the automobile AC and today my splurge on car stuff involves a handful of windshield wiper refills and supercharger oil Yeah, big day! :)
Congrats CP. BB, it depends on what you define as 'portions'. About 75% of stocks are in downtrends right now, even with the spy looking positive. There is some serious weakness under the hood. We are near new highs, so I'm not fighting it, but I'm cautious.
CC, are those 75% consumption oriented? I have my personal suspicion you know. That is consumer over consumption in developed countries is a dying phenomenon from our past, given the strategies being implemented to curb global warming, currently emphasis is on the energy industry but expect this to spread throughout sectors.
California is looking at desalinization, correct? Who will be the companies to implement this solution?
Here's what the database is showing CP: "The Ps (S&P 500) had another decent up day. They are now just a stone's throw away from all-time highs. Taking this at face value, you'd think that all is good in the world. However, since most stocks seem to be in downtrend, one has to wonder, what's propping up the Ps?
I'll tell you. For those who like stats: Only 36% of the 500 stocks are in an uptrend as defined by uptrend proper order of the Bowtie moving averages-10SMA>20EMA>30EMA.* And, most are defensive in nature. Consumer Non-Durables (8), Energies (29), Foods (14), Tobaccos (4), and Utilities (32). The other standouts are Metals & Mining(7)-some of which are Energy related and there are 15 REITS.
*See my new Youtube video on Bowties for more on uptrend proper order (scroll down).
With the Ps just shy of all-time highs, I'm guessing the media is getting ready to put on their S&P 1900 hats. I'm just not sure you can build a bull market on defensive issues, a few commodities, and some REITS."
At least you get a peek at what sectors are strong!
TZOO is in the online travel space but they mainly operate as a vacation package deal site. They focus on the higher end deals and don't offer much online booking. It's pretty old school and its the reason why they trade at 1/10th the valuation of every other player in terms of traffic they get to their site. My argument isn't that they will take away market share...just that they can monetize their traffic better by offering a booking platform which is what they're in the process of rolling out for hotels. It will cannibalize some of their revenues but I think it's a much more sustainable model especially when you consider how mobile works.
Right now for anyone that comes to their site, sees a deal but sees that the deal isn't available on the days they're interested...those people can't book the stay on Travelzoo. They either redirect people to the providers' websites which might not be mobile ready or they direct them to call the provider to book a stay. In both cases they don't capture any revenues. I personally think this is a big catalyst at some point in the future and have been waiting for the right entry point to get in. I think it's safe to start putting money into the stock.
I started managing my in laws accounts this year primarily because they have been so bad with managing their money for so long that I wanted to help. It's been a really good experience for me because it has forced me to be a little more conservative with the number of holdings I have in my own account. I've had a lot of success primarily because of oversized concentrated positions but that risk catches up with you at some point. For me it was FMD. I was up about 200% last year after selling YRCW but ended up the year around +95 or +100% because I had a huge position in FMD which crashed. That was kind of a wake up call because I had the majority of my $$ in it. I still think having concentrated holdings is the only way you can really outperform the market and the only way you can know the ins and outs of your holdings.
I was lucky enough to sidestep the damage this year in their accounts. I had them in cash from about a month ago until last week and got them in ENPH, DATE, CSIQ, FIG, SNE and TZOO. They're up about 8% this year. It will be fun to see how this goes. Hopefully I'll be able to string together enough gains to cushion the blow when a downturn happens :)
I can see how managing large amounts of money for other people would become stressful though. Having a benchmark to perform against with impatient clients breathing down your neck has to be rough.
Yep, US coal is under heavy artillary attack meanwhile China is gassifying Mongolian coal at a carbon emissions price of 2x that of burning coal directly. Near 2x net carbon emissions in the name of clearing the air in cities.
UNG has tacked on a $10 gain despite having to roll forward contracts, wonder how many X our electricity prices (that never did go down as eluded to) are about to increase?
This market is pretty funny man. It's amazing how polar opposite emerging markets and mature markets are...and then within that how old stodgy vs momentum stocks.
I haven't looked at TM lately but I kind of get the sense that the Japan trade that was so popular a while ago is going to come back en vogue over the spring/summer. I think SNE right now is very similar to NOK last summer...before it catipulated almost 100%. NOK was a sum of the parts play. It traded below book for a while. Now it's what...3X book? SNE is still below book. I find it hard to believe their music and movie studios aren't worth more than $19 Billion. We can ignore all of the other parts of their business too.
As far as cars go these days, I think most are pretty good and capable of lasting into 200,000 miles and more as a design rule, this wasn't the case a couple decades ago, but the vehicles cost easily 4x more now.
Fuel efficiency without doubt will become more important going forward so it's my guess as gasoline is approaching $4 and probably will reach beyond $5 before we might imagine. Implementing new technology something like this will dictate who the winners are, and the financial position of the company as well, pension burdens accounted for?
FLR/BMY - Are these in downtrends? It doesn't appear that way to me, in trading ranges if anything as far as I can tell. Okay, by definition so I should get them cheaper if they are in downtrends, right?
Just technically speaking...traders would buy FLR above $80. BMY looks good. I like the false breakdown from last week and then the follow through above those prior lows. I don't follow those two companies though so can't speak to fundamentals.
Been pretty preoccupied since last Nov. with a health issue for Patricia that hopefully will be eliminated (removed) this Friday. So lots of positive energy on the 25th!!
hey man - yeah i used to write articles on SA under an alias but I've been busy and I also started getting a bit uneasy with how much they can affect stocks. I feel like its a bit unethical. I guess its ok to write up about your holdings but when your holdings go up 30% in a week or two it's hard not to sell into that strength and that strength is sometimes not authentic. I even found analysts copying my articles verbatim which really made me uneasy.
I like it on a really short chart (pullback yesterday) but when you back out in time the ideal time would have been around 2.40. THAT would have been a great trade. Thanks. Hopefully it pulls back more. Psychologically it would be better.
CP, I answered your question (above) but thought I would post it here so everyone can see. Which sectors are holding up the S&P?
"The Ps (S&P 500) had another decent up day. They are now just a stone's throw away from all-time highs. Taking this at face value, you'd think that all is good in the world. However, since most stocks seem to be in downtrend, one has to wonder, what's propping up the Ps?
I'll tell you. For those who like stats: Only 36% of the 500 stocks are in an uptrend as defined by uptrend proper order of the Bowtie moving averages-10SMA>20EMA>30EMA.* And, most are defensive in nature. Consumer Non-Durables (8), Energies (29), Foods (14), Tobaccos (4), and Utilities (32). The other standouts are Metals & Mining(7)-some of which are Energy related and there are 15 REITS.
*See my new Youtube video on Bowties for more on uptrend proper order (scroll down).
With the Ps just shy of all-time highs, I'm guessing the media is getting ready to put on their S&P 1900 hats. I'm just not sure you can build a bull market on defensive issues, a few commodities, and some REITS."
Today Big Dave said he hasn't seen the markets so internally weak since 2008 before the big roll over. That isn't a prediction, he is just concerned about why there is so much internal weakness and defensive strength.
Yes, definitely words worthy of consideration. Ya know, those are the very same words I've been hearing for several years now almost verbatim. Honestly, my guess is economic recovery isn't exactly robust (YET) thus stocks which have run big simply cannot justify further upside. So SPX is now red today, surprise, surprise. And like trees, prices don't grow to the moon, do they?. Amazing aside, I notice my computer always seems to half-sieze at tops and needs rebooting for some reason..
The only issue I have with the weakness under the hood argument is breadth is actually at all time highs. It made a new all time high yesterday. Here's the past 35 years on this (not sure if you can view this):
Heres the past 10 years: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=!ADRLINYA&p=D&yr=10&mn=0&dy=0&id=p57875790417
Notice that every top (I checked back to 1940) has a rollover in breadth before the top. No indicator is perfect but I find it interesting that this hit a new high yesterday.
Dave scans thousands of charts each night. I know what he is looking at and it is easy to understand. I have no idea what the breadth indicator is looking at. Most indicators are a product of price, but breadth would seem to be something different.
I will say, just before we saw the latest pullback and there was talk here of rotation and 'momo' stocks pulling back, Dave's database was indicating that change for about five trading days. We are very close to new highs, but we all know how the market likes to do the most obvious thing in the least obvious, most painful way, for the most people. I'm long, I'm short, I'm very cautious right now.
We were bullish on solar coming into 2014. I was looking for a dip. We got one. I like them a lot now. Strong tailwinds behind this sector longer term as we need alt energies globally to fix pollution
That tax credit subsidy makes the TSLA roadster more attractive: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?key=0AnTJaKTgGoNLdGF6TDJmaVp0LWlPQk8zY1JNMWM2QkE&output=html
Sorta looks like not only if I don't buy one I get to buy one for someone else but if I don't buy I also get to pay taxes not just on the debt but I get to pay Goldman Sachs for carbon credits they hedged by renting vast tracts of the Amazon Forest.
But I've got one for them, native grasses in the polar ice cap regions that have died off trap 2x more CO2 than all the world's tropical rain forests put together.
Our little site here isn't clogged enuff with meaningless comment, so here's more: "Cheesecake Factory's 1Q profit hit by weatherAP(Wed 5:52PM EDT)" "4:18 pm Varian Medical beats by $0.01, reports revs in-line; guides Q3 EPS below consensus; guides FY14 EPS in-line, revs in-lineBriefing.com(Wed 4:18PM"
Hang onto your hats and grab your flux capacitors, here comes expensive electricity? http://www.technologyreview.com/news/526646/the-cost-of-limiting-climate-change-could-double-without-carbon-capture-technology/
Here's another one. Kind of sounds like mlp's. No wonder these have run so hard. The suned one is debuting soon so I'd have to imagine renewed focus in this space soon
People are loving the yield stocks still. Can't find the exact report, but the Canadian Energy Junior stocks with yield trade at a premium (I think it was 20% higher P/NAV) than non-yielders. So, the exact same company is worth more just because it sends some money back to shareholders instead of investing in the business. You would think this gap would close over time and be tradeable, but it has persisted for a long time.
Seems a bit too excited in the markets this morning - wouldn't be surprised to see a pullback this morning before we move higher. Earnings seem to be generally good and I think that drives the marker higher, but I just think we'll see some profit taking and pain for buyers of this bounce.
Updating coal demand model to reflect positive trends We are updating our coal supply-demand model to reflect more switching from gas to coal, a higher net generation outlook, and higher coal demand view. Our new model has coal demand growing 2% this year (up from prior 0%) and inventories being draw down by 32mm tons (up from 16mm tons). Our model assumes flat trends for the balance of the year after what has been a very strong 1Q for coal burn. Companies in our coverage that can benefit from an improving thermal coal outlook include Cloud Peak, Arch Coal, Peabody Energy, Alpha Natural, and CONSOL Energy. Net generation trends benefiting coal so far this year Coal continues to recapture market share from natural gas. Net generation in Feb rose 4.6% yoy and is up 6.5% ytd. Coal consumption for electric generation rose 13.7% yoy and is up 12.6% ytd. Meantime, gas consumption fell 3.4% yoy and is up 0.7% ytd. Assuming flat trends for the balance of the year and normal summer weather, coal consumption should finish up about 3-4%. Coal’s share of net generation surged to 44% in Feb while gas declined to a 23% share. High gas prices have helped coal to regain lost share. The average Henry Hub spot price in Feb was $5.97/mmBtu and 1Q average was $5.16/mmBtu. With the spot price down to $4.74/mmBtu in April, we’d expect coal/gas share trends to be more stable going forward. Utility inventory trends remain favourable The EIA released Feb 2014 inventory data this week. Coal stockpiles fell 13mm tons or 10% in Feb to 119mm tons. This is well above the 10-year average inventory drawdown of 2mm tons. Harsh winter weather and PRB rail congestion has led to above average inventory drawdowns. Feb inventories were at 47 days of supply vs. 56 days in Jan. We assume a further inventory drawdown in March (vs. typical build of 6mm tons) and normal seasonal trends thereafter. Based on our outlook, utility coal stockpiles can exit the summer at 105-110mm tons or 30% below prior year levels. Based on our analysis, inventories could finish the year around 120mm tons and be at the lowest levels seen in a decade.
FuturesTrader71 @FuturesTrader71 11m Situation in Ukraine escalating dramatically with Putin direct warning to Kiev on violence: http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/04/24/us-ukraine-crisis-idUSBREA3L11A20140424 … #FT71 #ES_F It is not common for #ES_F to play out Hypo 1 this quickly. Makes up for yday's non-action #FT71 Unconfirmed talk of an emergency press conference with Putin to take place in 1 hour #FT71 #ES_F Caution on headline risk here coming out of Ukraine/Russia situation #FT71 #ES_F
And I'm having an underperforming day. Different type of market today I think with the more growthy, high-value stocks outperforming and the cheaper stocks underperforming.
Will be interesting to see if this is a new trend or just a blip in the trend we've seen so far this year of momo underperforming and value outperforming.
Not sure I agree man. Look at LNKD, FEYE, NOW, YNDX, GOOGL, PCLN, etc. They're all down, some big. I think you can parse through the growth stocks one by one. I'm in CSIQ, ENPH, DATE, SNE, FIG, and XUE. I consider all of them to be heavily beaten down and prior momentum names (except SNE).
CSIQ for example, a momo stock, trades at 8X earnings estimates for 2013. No idea if those estimates come through but you have the potential for Yieldco IPOs in the entire space. People are still reaching for yield, as you say. But that trend could last for a long long time because rates don't look like they're going to go up any time soon. The majority of investors expect rates to rise...in fact I think I just read that all economists recently surveyed expect them to rise. That's a little one sided to me. The true bubble could be in high yield stocks and we might still be a long way away from the top. If the yieldco IPOs come what's to say people won't clamor for those too, driving solar stocks ever higher. Shit a few of these were just decimated recently so there's a decent chance if the Sun Edison yieldco deal gets pushed up then all solars would benefit. Just a thought.
Having said this, I did take a 25% of CSIQ and ENPH off the table at $30.8 and $8.1 primarily because I'm still a little uneasy about the overall market and would like to lock in some of those gains. I kept half in cash and bought some SNE at $18.11.
I have to say that I'm beginning to warm up to some of the cloud/security names only because the media has shit on them for a while now and traders are avoiding them like the plague.
Yeah I guess I'm just thinking about the sentiment here. It's pretty friggin awful. The drop down below the panic lows from last week is part of the reason I decided to bail on most of CSIQ today and hope for a better entry point. Nothing has changed in fact some of those cloud/security guys have reported solid earnings but the market just wants a pound of their flesh at any cost. What's to say they don't do the same to the solars given they're up 25 to 35% in 9 days?
Anyway, I do think NOW will be a huge winner longer term. I kind of view them like a CRM / VMW. Something that's always overpriced and hard to buy on valuation reasons. Shit when CRM was at 1/20th of its current price it was extremely expensive.
Sold all of my TZOO today and most of my CSIQ and am holding 2/3 ENPH, DATE, and a little SNE and FIG. About 30% long, the rest in cash. I honestly don't know what to make of the overall market. I think I'm paying way too much attention to it for one (which is hazardous for your wealth) and I think traders are way too skeptical / pessimistic so I think there's a good chance we rally right into the fed meeting next week. If we do end up going lower I'd expect to see a big spike up move followed by a complete reversal to mark the top. Maybe something like today but on a grander scale? Perhaps a move to 1900 then a drop to 1850 all in one day. Not sure. Either way I'm back to right around YTD highs and I don't mind being cautious until I get a better feel for things. I think solar could withstand a market pullback because of the longer term tailwinds but I'm willing to pare down risk until I feel better about things. I'm only working 1/3 days right now as I'm helping out a lot with the new baby so the lack of focus makes me more risk averse.
You guys see copper today by the way? Not exactly bearish. BID had a great day today too. Could be breaking its downtrend finally. SOX near YTD highs again. I love that sector longer term. That's part of the reason I like CREE even though I got stopped out of a trade in that yesterday. CREE is a major component of the SOX and that index is breaking out much like the Nasdaq did a while ago as it tries to head back up toward all time highs.
SPWR had a solid earnings report and raised full year guidance a little bit. It's rocking higher after hours. Now, of course, I regret selling any CSIQ as its also up 2% after hours and will probably test $34 again.
I did actually buy back some CSIQ at $30.81 and $30.9 before they started running it after hours. Oh well. Gotta man up and take some more risk from time to time.
Solar is very strong in Hawaii and is causing a lot of problems for Hawaiian electric, HE, as there customers go off grid, but infrastructure costs continue to rise.
I think I found it but not sure it's correct, otherwise electricity on Oahu would all be solar given the price differential of 1/3? This figure doesn't include any carbon taxes that might be in the pipelines either, there's no mention of it.
"Solar is closing in on price parity with the likes of coal — with full-cycle, unsubsidized costs of about 13 cents per kilowatthour, versus 12 cents for advanced coal plants."
This article claims solar is cheapest of all power sources, did you guys know that already? http://www.treehugger.com/renewable-energy/solar-power-cheaper-natural-gas-coal-and-nuclear-power-texas.html
Hawaiian electric is doing all they can to slow/stop demand of solar, losing battle. But that is one be drawback to living in a condo in paradise, almost no way to tap into to solar for most do to small footprint and/or cost.
For solar to really work long term, we need a better electricity storage mechanism. The big problems with the utilities now (look at Germany for an extreme) is that solar is inconsistent. The utilities are expected to maintain their generation facilities (eg. coal) for when electricity is needed and can't be provided by the preferred solar. this is working now just because the utilities have huge sunk costs, but no new backup generation will be created.
Here in Ontario, our electricity is primarily nuclear, with a lot of hydro-electric (Niagara Falls) and our costs average out around $0.09 per kilowatt. The wacky thing is we are paying farmers $0.60 per kilowatt to install solar and $0.12 for wind and funding this out of our taxes. It is mainly a job generation play as we want to build the expertise to be world leaders in green energy and have the jobs here. Politics driving business, not a good thing.
My one utility investment is Spanish utility Iberdrola (IBDRY). I like them because they are cheap, have a good dividend and have some strong regulated and unregulated markets and are a world leader in green energy. Their debt is higher than it should be, but they are working this.
Can't believe the prices you pay in Hawaii - at that price though, solar should be very competitive.
Yes but certainly even ?Hawaiian electric must have plans to construct large tracts of solar installations to replace fossil fuels, the cost of electricity should drop to 13 cents, a win-win, right?
"The utilities are expected to maintain their generation facilities (eg. coal) for when electricity is needed and can't be provided by the preferred solar."
Yes but the article claims the solar electricity costs 13 cents So I wonder if this a good reason to own utilities, they get paid not to burn coal but continue to have it on hand in case the sun sets? I think the old boilers aren't designed for thermal cycling, they crack from thermal stress. So this supports gas turbine generation for when the solar supply is malfunctioning (every night).
Yes, 13 cents for solar is much less than the 34~44 cents Hawaiian customers pay. Full solar implementation would cause electricity price deflation, right? I pay 12.1 cents here, I'm looking forward to much lower electricity prices, bring it on!.
"Nuclear is cheap, once the reactor is built." Absolutely, a thimble-full of uranium contains enough energy to push a full size electric car over 100,000 miles.
This is confusing me a little, if coal is getting cheaper b/c we don't need it anymore, and gas is going down as well as cost for solar, then wouldn't electricity prices follow and thus the rental model become cheaper as time passes, not more expensive as this claims?
This is not the first time Google has invested in residential solar leasing. In 2011, it invested $280 million in partnership with SolarCity. This time, however, the partnership is with SunPower*, which is investing another $150 million itself.
The story with solar leasing is rather simple: instead of buying their own solar power systems, customers have a solar company (e.g., SolarCity, SunPower, Sunrun, Sungevity, Vivint Solar, etc.) pay for the installation of a solar power system on their roof and then pay that solar company monthly for the electricity it produces. Often, this means a homeowner can go solar for $0 or close to $0 down. The solar companies generally aim to make it such that a homeowner pays less monthly for their solar electricity than they would pay to their utility for the same amount of electricity. Payments rise over time, but so would electricity rates, and the projected long-term savings are generally in the tens of thousands."
Why isn't Elon Musk working on this as opposed to trying to recolonize another planet, get that man going on this! My idea, why not just use a 35,000km long superconductor thread?
By pollution you mean carbon emissions and the other gunk, heavy metals and sulfur, that solar doesn't generate right? I think that article tells us we should consider pollution capture technologies, there was a company I had found but can't recall the ticker. It's probably run up by now anyway.
And the XLE is up 15% since the beginning of February, so the stocks are good.
Keep going back and looking at BP. It's the cheapest of the majors, has budgeted for likely all of the Gulf costs, is committed to improving shareholder value, and seems like almost the value guys like it. Not sexy or a 5-bagger, but I'm thinking of adding as a stable stock for my portfolio.
Okay, now I understand the excuse for wanting to short the indicies, it's "about" Putin and the continuing invasion of Ukraine. Should help keep PM's from crashing further and present a PM shorting opportunity for once the spat is resolved if PM's move high enough.
Ammonia production (for high hydrogen content) (or possibly straight hydrogen) would be a real tailwind for solar but competitive electricity production cost alone can carry solar a long way.
Solar panels for EV's - Somewhere I read an article a guy had written in which he was pleading for EV manufacturers to install solar panels on the vehicles, but the subject didn't really ring a bell with me b/c that wouldn't produce enough energy to operate even the HFC A/C compressor used in an EV, LED brake and other lights yes, or perhaps a decent fan motor at times.
Helicopter transport service - Somewhere I'd been looking at a company that transports offshore oil platform employees, can't recall that ticker either....
Meant to post I sold dang on Friday mark, fortunately. I also sold sne on fri unfortunately
ReplyDeletePKX - Maybe coming back to us?
ReplyDeleteDoes the next round of profit taking begin today, which day this week?
ReplyDeleteELNK - An even better day.
ReplyDeleteGM - Looks like BB nailed this one too.! :)
ReplyDeleteI'm hoping all the bad news is priced in. Never know for sure on a stock under siege like this, but the value should show through in time.
DeleteI was looking at Carlsberg (CABGY) today as they are under pressure from getting 35% of their business from Russia, but not cheap enough for the risk for me. Maybe if it pulls back another 15% I'd jump in.
That hasn't really gotten dinged on the US exchanges. Pretty solid stable growth. My only concern would be dilution. Seems like shares outstanding have grown significnatly the past 10 years.
DeleteThanks for pointing that out - I hadn't noticed. They've been growing a lot through acquisitions and must have paid for some of these in shares.
DeleteAs long as they are making acquisition which add to EPS, I'm OK with that as a straegy, but a lot of companies aren't good at that.
There's been a lot of consolidation in the beer market and the top 4 (Carlsberg is #4) now produce 50% of global beer.volume.
I actually like that pick a lot though. How did you find it? I noticed they paid what looks like a $0.29 dividend this year. Is this a one time thing or are they changing their payout policy?
DeleteNIHD - This dynamo might actually close better than $1?
ReplyDeleteSold BIB after hours at $74
ReplyDeleteI bought back into SNE today at $19.01. Not the greatest entry but I think that one has to go higher over time. It's trading at a big discount to book value and I think it's another case where the sum of the parts is worth a lot more than its whole, just like NOK at $3.50. I think it can get to $30+ if the market prices the sum of the parts properly. The crown jewel in my mind is Sony Pictures. Content is what people are clamoring for now.
ReplyDeleteMy take right now? I don't have one. Just warming up in the batter's cage.
ReplyDeleteRob Arnott: Demographics Are the Markets' 800-Pound Gorilla
ReplyDeletehttp://online.barrons.com/news/articles/SB50001424053111904703704579510010993205146
I like beer.
ReplyDeleteCABGY looks good but I have to say BUD looks like the best one valuation wise vs growth etc. TSGTY has the best compounded growth rate. There are a lot of Indian breweries that don't have any way of investing in them unfortunately. Another one that is interesting is SMGBY, but it looks like they're a conglomerate. They have paid pretty hefty dividends the past 10 years and have the best growth rate at 19% compounded over the past 9 years. They paid out about $7.25 in dividends the past 10 years.:
ReplyDeleteP/FCF:
CABGY - 17.8
SAM - 77.7
BUD - 18.0
HEINY - 19.6
FMX - 39.7
TAP - 12.3
P/E:
CABGY - 15.2
SAM - 45.3
BUD - 12.5
HEINY - 10.5
FMX - 28.22
TAP - 18.9
P/BV:
CABGY - 1.16
SAM - 10.55
BUD - 3.57
HEINY - 2.43
FMX - 2.82
TAP - 1.24
Growth Rates:
9 year compounded:
CABGY - 8.2%
SAM - 14.6
BUD - 15.7
HEINY - 8.5
FMX - 8.9
TAP - (0.3)
There was a portfolio manager on TV I respect talking about CABGY. I was looking for some stocks beaten up due to the Russia/Ukraine mess and this seemed like a good play. Putin may cut off the natural gas, but no way he cuts off the alcohol.
DeleteBut, I didn't realize the P/E on BUD had gotten so low. When I looked at it previously, it was always high. Have to do some more digging into that. BUD has the best economies of scale and supposedly excellent management.
Baltic Dry Index (BDI) +9 939
ReplyDeleteMy trading account is at new highs for the year thanks to BALT/FLWS/BSBR and to some extent NLY coming back. Probably about time for another round of disappointment? Hoping FLWS really begins to take flight, earnings are just around the corner on the 29th BMO.
ReplyDeleteThat's great news!
DeleteReally still seems that people are getting negative on the market, but it really is just portions of the market getting hit, and they are the parts that should get hit.
Nice Chicken! Have a SAM!
DeleteI have some Ying-Ling Black & Tan that was brought to me last week sitting unopened, in preparation for summer yesterday recharged the automobile AC and today my splurge on car stuff involves a handful of windshield wiper refills and supercharger oil Yeah, big day! :)
DeleteCongrats CP.
DeleteBB, it depends on what you define as 'portions'. About 75% of stocks are in downtrends right now, even with the spy looking positive. There is some serious weakness under the hood. We are near new highs, so I'm not fighting it, but I'm cautious.
Good stuff man!
DeleteCC, are those 75% consumption oriented? I have my personal suspicion you know. That is consumer over consumption in developed countries is a dying phenomenon from our past, given the strategies being implemented to curb global warming, currently emphasis is on the energy industry but expect this to spread throughout sectors.
DeleteCalifornia is looking at desalinization, correct? Who will be the companies to implement this solution?
Here's what the database is showing CP: "The Ps (S&P 500) had another decent up day. They are now just a stone's throw away from all-time highs. Taking this at face value, you'd think that all is good in the world. However, since most stocks seem to be in downtrend, one has to wonder, what's propping up the Ps?
DeleteI'll tell you. For those who like stats: Only 36% of the 500 stocks are in an uptrend as defined by uptrend proper order of the Bowtie moving averages-10SMA>20EMA>30EMA.* And, most are defensive in nature. Consumer Non-Durables (8), Energies (29), Foods (14), Tobaccos (4), and Utilities (32). The other standouts are Metals & Mining(7)-some of which are Energy related and there are 15 REITS.
*See my new Youtube video on Bowties for more on uptrend proper order (scroll down).
With the Ps just shy of all-time highs, I'm guessing the media is getting ready to put on their S&P 1900 hats. I'm just not sure you can build a bull market on defensive issues, a few commodities, and some REITS."
At least you get a peek at what sectors are strong!
Added sne at 18.7 pre market
ReplyDeleteENPH - Holy crap that's nice! Well, I'm totally surprised but given yesterday's news concerning ethanol bio-fuels sustainability it should figure.
ReplyDeleteIt's my best performer since I started loading up longs. Up about 12% in past 2 weeks
DeleteNow if sne and Tzoo (which I'm now up on after averaging down) can cooperate this could turn out to be a nice day
DeleteDoes TZOO compete with Kayak, or different ball of wax?
DeleteTZOO is in the online travel space but they mainly operate as a vacation package deal site. They focus on the higher end deals and don't offer much online booking. It's pretty old school and its the reason why they trade at 1/10th the valuation of every other player in terms of traffic they get to their site. My argument isn't that they will take away market share...just that they can monetize their traffic better by offering a booking platform which is what they're in the process of rolling out for hotels. It will cannibalize some of their revenues but I think it's a much more sustainable model especially when you consider how mobile works.
DeleteRight now for anyone that comes to their site, sees a deal but sees that the deal isn't available on the days they're interested...those people can't book the stay on Travelzoo. They either redirect people to the providers' websites which might not be mobile ready or they direct them to call the provider to book a stay. In both cases they don't capture any revenues. I personally think this is a big catalyst at some point in the future and have been waiting for the right entry point to get in. I think it's safe to start putting money into the stock.
I started managing my in laws accounts this year primarily because they have been so bad with managing their money for so long that I wanted to help. It's been a really good experience for me because it has forced me to be a little more conservative with the number of holdings I have in my own account. I've had a lot of success primarily because of oversized concentrated positions but that risk catches up with you at some point. For me it was FMD. I was up about 200% last year after selling YRCW but ended up the year around +95 or +100% because I had a huge position in FMD which crashed. That was kind of a wake up call because I had the majority of my $$ in it. I still think having concentrated holdings is the only way you can really outperform the market and the only way you can know the ins and outs of your holdings.
ReplyDeleteI was lucky enough to sidestep the damage this year in their accounts. I had them in cash from about a month ago until last week and got them in ENPH, DATE, CSIQ, FIG, SNE and TZOO. They're up about 8% this year. It will be fun to see how this goes. Hopefully I'll be able to string together enough gains to cushion the blow when a downturn happens :)
I can see how managing large amounts of money for other people would become stressful though. Having a benchmark to perform against with impatient clients breathing down your neck has to be rough.
DeleteGood story.
DeleteACI = ouch.
ReplyDeleteYep, US coal is under heavy artillary attack meanwhile China is gassifying Mongolian coal at a carbon emissions price of 2x that of burning coal directly. Near 2x net carbon emissions in the name of clearing the air in cities.
DeleteUNG has tacked on a $10 gain despite having to roll forward contracts, wonder how many X our electricity prices (that never did go down as eluded to) are about to increase?
Have you guys looked at TM at all?
ReplyDeletePretty beat up, a sign of the anti-carbon global warming times?
DeleteThis market is pretty funny man. It's amazing how polar opposite emerging markets and mature markets are...and then within that how old stodgy vs momentum stocks.
ReplyDeleteGold is so done. Should have just held the GLL.
ReplyDeleteSilver could potentially reach $13.50....
DeleteI haven't looked at TM lately but I kind of get the sense that the Japan trade that was so popular a while ago is going to come back en vogue over the spring/summer. I think SNE right now is very similar to NOK last summer...before it catipulated almost 100%. NOK was a sum of the parts play. It traded below book for a while. Now it's what...3X book? SNE is still below book. I find it hard to believe their music and movie studios aren't worth more than $19 Billion. We can ignore all of the other parts of their business too.
ReplyDeleteAnd TM is probably much like the US automakers right? Except they make more reliable cars.
DeleteAs far as cars go these days, I think most are pretty good and capable of lasting into 200,000 miles and more as a design rule, this wasn't the case a couple decades ago, but the vehicles cost easily 4x more now.
DeleteFuel efficiency without doubt will become more important going forward so it's my guess as gasoline is approaching $4 and probably will reach beyond $5 before we might imagine. Implementing new technology something like this will dictate who the winners are, and the financial position of the company as well, pension burdens accounted for?
Gasoline Direct-Injection Compression Ignition (GDCI)
http://www.caranddriver.com/features/hyundais-experimental-gas-engine-runs-without-spark-plugs-feature
GEVO - +26%, LOL.... "Gevo Jumps on Lufthansa Deal to Test Renewable Jet Fuel at Bloomberg +21.84%"
ReplyDeleteFLR/BMY - Are these in downtrends? It doesn't appear that way to me, in trading ranges if anything as far as I can tell. Okay, by definition so I should get them cheaper if they are in downtrends, right?
ReplyDeleteJust technically speaking...traders would buy FLR above $80. BMY looks good. I like the false breakdown from last week and then the follow through above those prior lows. I don't follow those two companies though so can't speak to fundamentals.
DeleteAh, yes but if you buy over $80 then you left $5 on the table by not scooping it up at $75!
DeleteReally wish I bought CSIQ in my personal account as well. Huge day today
ReplyDeleteI kinda like that chart, seems like a well defined entry area?
Delete+40% now
ReplyDeleteBSBR - Now +2%, I have to say I was NOT EXPECTING this today AT ALL. :)
ReplyDeleteCEVO - Why is it so often stocks seem to be crushed hard always just prior to a PR announcement that causes a rebound to prior levels?
ReplyDeleteGE - Alright then so, weakness in healthcare sector if due to competition the answer might be verified tomorrow in VAR's report AH.
BSBR/FLWS - Why did both of these open today at the same price?
ReplyDeleteENPH - I wanna know who the F-heads are that were selling this one at $7 man.
ReplyDeleteI sold it at 7.70- 8.30ish.
DeleteGreat job with the longs guys.
ReplyDeleteBeen pretty preoccupied since last Nov. with a health issue for Patricia that hopefully will be eliminated (removed) this Friday. So lots of positive energy on the 25th!!
Oh good luck man. Hope you guys are doing well
DeleteYeah, good luck Mark. Much more important than the market!
DeleteKinda like Cree here
ReplyDeleteLong 53.9 if it trades below 52 I'm out
DeleteThere are many gaps up from around October that recently filled, I keep finding them. CAKE is yet another.
ReplyDeleteGood writeup on TZOO on seekingalpha:
ReplyDeletehttp://seekingalpha.com/article/2154383-travelzoo-an-undervalued-internet-company
TOF, are you Jonathan Verenger or do you just have the same analysis?
hey man - yeah i used to write articles on SA under an alias but I've been busy and I also started getting a bit uneasy with how much they can affect stocks. I feel like its a bit unethical. I guess its ok to write up about your holdings but when your holdings go up 30% in a week or two it's hard not to sell into that strength and that strength is sometimes not authentic. I even found analysts copying my articles verbatim which really made me uneasy.
DeleteEnergy stocks still looking good:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.thereformedbroker.com/2014/04/22/chart-o-the-day-energy-breaks-out/
I always scan the earning results each day. So far seems about 50/50 to me.
ReplyDeleteThanks. Speak up if you see something, okay?
DeleteCC- Here's one that might be setting up for you. AXAS.
ReplyDeleteThanks Mark, I'll take a look. I hope Patricia is well.
DeleteI like it on a really short chart (pullback yesterday) but when you back out in time the ideal time would have been around 2.40. THAT would have been a great trade. Thanks. Hopefully it pulls back more. Psychologically it would be better.
DeleteFLWS - Let's trade this one using market orders only.
ReplyDeleteWLT - This one doesn't seem too risky here, oversold I think is safe to say?
ReplyDeleteShort float is like 50% or so?
DeleteThis one was downgraded to sell the other day. By WFC I think. $5 pt I think.
DeleteI honestly don't know how you price coal stocks now. NSC reported coal revenues down 15% this morning as coal demand continues to tank.
DeleteMight be good for a bounce here but I'd really want to understand the industry fundamentals better to make a longer term buy at this point.
I'd downgrade coal too, if I held a monstrous short. :)
DeleteI bought a chunk of csiq today at 29.29. I think the solar stocks have the best chances of going back to old highs
ReplyDeleteDavid Eichhorn wrote about buying SUNE -the old MEMC this quarter.
DeleteCP, I answered your question (above) but thought I would post it here so everyone can see.
ReplyDeleteWhich sectors are holding up the S&P?
"The Ps (S&P 500) had another decent up day. They are now just a stone's throw away from all-time highs. Taking this at face value, you'd think that all is good in the world. However, since most stocks seem to be in downtrend, one has to wonder, what's propping up the Ps?
I'll tell you. For those who like stats: Only 36% of the 500 stocks are in an uptrend as defined by uptrend proper order of the Bowtie moving averages-10SMA>20EMA>30EMA.* And, most are defensive in nature. Consumer Non-Durables (8), Energies (29), Foods (14), Tobaccos (4), and Utilities (32). The other standouts are Metals & Mining(7)-some of which are Energy related and there are 15 REITS.
*See my new Youtube video on Bowties for more on uptrend proper order (scroll down).
With the Ps just shy of all-time highs, I'm guessing the media is getting ready to put on their S&P 1900 hats. I'm just not sure you can build a bull market on defensive issues, a few commodities, and some REITS."
Today Big Dave said he hasn't seen the markets so internally weak since 2008 before the big roll over.
DeleteThat isn't a prediction, he is just concerned about why there is so much internal weakness and defensive strength.
Yes, definitely words worthy of consideration. Ya know, those are the very same words I've been hearing for several years now almost verbatim. Honestly, my guess is economic recovery isn't exactly robust (YET) thus stocks which have run big simply cannot justify further upside. So SPX is now red today, surprise, surprise. And like trees, prices don't grow to the moon, do they?. Amazing aside, I notice my computer always seems to half-sieze at tops and needs rebooting for some reason..
DeleteDon't make me buy something I'd rather sell! :)
The only issue I have with the weakness under the hood argument is breadth is actually at all time highs. It made a new all time high yesterday. Here's the past 35 years on this (not sure if you can view this):
Deletehttp://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=!ADRLINYA&p=D&yr=35&mn=0&dy=0&id=p19604503631
Heres the past 10 years:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=!ADRLINYA&p=D&yr=10&mn=0&dy=0&id=p57875790417
Notice that every top (I checked back to 1940) has a rollover in breadth before the top. No indicator is perfect but I find it interesting that this hit a new high yesterday.
I wonder how this indicator is calculated.
DeleteDave scans thousands of charts each night. I know what he is looking at and it is easy to understand. I have no idea what the breadth indicator is looking at. Most indicators are a product of price, but breadth would seem to be something different.
I will say, just before we saw the latest pullback and there was talk here of rotation and 'momo' stocks pulling back, Dave's database was indicating that change for about five trading days. We are very close to new highs, but we all know how the market likes to do the most obvious thing in the least obvious, most painful way, for the most people. I'm long, I'm short, I'm very cautious right now.
ALDW - Oh of course no pullback or retest of lower trend line, oh no indeed, just a continuous climb higher.
ReplyDeleteMark Great luck with Patricia. Health is wealth.
ReplyDeleteXLF and IYT are up today. IYT at new all time highs right now. Interesting...
ReplyDeleteIYT - Wow, that's one strong performance considering all the "weakness under the hood",
DeleteTZA TWM on the 50 sma
ReplyDeleteCashin mentioned that cycles show strength till the EOM, FWIW
DeleteI've also been eyeing 4/30 which is the Fed meeting.
DeleteWLT - Now has closed the gap down looks like, I would probably take some gains.
ReplyDeleteTWM, long at 47.33 never saw the fill, my stop around 46
ReplyDeletemay get stopped out tomorrow.
DeleteLooks like you might be able to add a few @ $46.98 in AH? I'm a chickenshit of the 1st order not knowing if AH earnings are bullish or not.
DeletePretty impressive earnings out of FB.
ReplyDeleteWeren't we interested in FB under $60?
DeleteNVDA - Will this one EVER get spanked?
ReplyDeleteAAPL - Happy days are here again?
ReplyDeleteTM - Well, I must admit I'm tempted by this chart.
ReplyDeleteWe were bullish on solar coming into 2014. I was looking for a dip. We got one. I like them a lot now. Strong tailwinds behind this sector longer term as we need alt energies globally to fix pollution
ReplyDeleteThe gaps in the CSIQ chart cleaned up nicely.
DeleteThat tax credit subsidy makes the TSLA roadster more attractive:
ReplyDeletehttps://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?key=0AnTJaKTgGoNLdGF6TDJmaVp0LWlPQk8zY1JNMWM2QkE&output=html
The spreadsheet comes from this analysis:
Deletehttp://www.teslacost.com/
Sorta looks like not only if I don't buy one I get to buy one for someone else but if I don't buy I also get to pay taxes not just on the debt but I get to pay Goldman Sachs for carbon credits they hedged by renting vast tracts of the Amazon Forest.
DeleteBut I've got one for them, native grasses in the polar ice cap regions that have died off trap 2x more CO2 than all the world's tropical rain forests put together.
SODA - Damn if this one didn't shoot up on news too.
ReplyDeleteAnother that did this right after getting the crap smacked out of it, WTF?
DeleteOINK - Oh yes, this one did run. Proof even Chinese people have to eat?
ReplyDeletea 21% gain from $1.80
DeleteSmall positions in TZA (16.04) and FAZ (19.84) after hours.
ReplyDeleteOur little site here isn't clogged enuff with meaningless comment, so here's more:
ReplyDelete"Cheesecake Factory's 1Q profit hit by weatherAP(Wed 5:52PM EDT)"
"4:18 pm Varian Medical beats by $0.01, reports revs in-line; guides Q3 EPS below consensus; guides FY14 EPS in-line, revs in-lineBriefing.com(Wed 4:18PM"
TNA/TZA - Nice wave structure -- obvious is down but more pain is up ...
ReplyDeletehttp://www.screencast.com/t/xAuzasoBaQ
Useful information? Eh, maybe...
ReplyDeletehttp://goldstocksforex.com/2014/04/23/sp-500-and-nasdaq-selling-pressure-2/
We probably find out soon, a wild guess is money left tech in favor of energy but that's a pretty narrow window I'm looking through...
DeleteActually, that is a pretty good analysis based on just those charts.
DeleteCVI - Nice move there too.
ReplyDeleteHang onto your hats and grab your flux capacitors, here comes expensive electricity?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.technologyreview.com/news/526646/the-cost-of-limiting-climate-change-could-double-without-carbon-capture-technology/
BTU sure is taking it on the chin lately....
ReplyDeleteHave you guys looked at this yieldco stuff at all? I started reading about it after seeing einhorns note on sune.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.altenergystocks.com/archives/2014/02/sunedison_launches_yieldco_trend_will_be_transformative_for_solar.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+AlternativeEnergyStocks+(AltEnergyStocks.com)
Here's another one. Kind of sounds like mlp's. No wonder these have run so hard. The suned one is debuting soon so I'd have to imagine renewed focus in this space soon
Deletehttp://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSL4N0JE2NU20140116?type=companyNews&irpc=932
People are loving the yield stocks still. Can't find the exact report, but the Canadian Energy Junior stocks with yield trade at a premium (I think it was 20% higher P/NAV) than non-yielders. So, the exact same company is worth more just because it sends some money back to shareholders instead of investing in the business. You would think this gap would close over time and be tradeable, but it has persisted for a long time.
DeleteSeems a bit too excited in the markets this morning - wouldn't be surprised to see a pullback this morning before we move higher. Earnings seem to be generally good and I think that drives the marker higher, but I just think we'll see some profit taking and pain for buyers of this bounce.
ReplyDeleteCoal per UBS
ReplyDeleteUpdating coal demand model to reflect positive trends
We are updating our coal supply-demand model to reflect more switching from gas to coal, a higher net
generation outlook, and higher coal demand view. Our new model has coal demand growing 2% this
year (up from prior 0%) and inventories being draw down by 32mm tons (up from 16mm tons). Our
model assumes flat trends for the balance of the year after what has been a very strong 1Q for coal
burn. Companies in our coverage that can benefit from an improving thermal coal outlook include Cloud
Peak, Arch Coal, Peabody Energy, Alpha Natural, and CONSOL Energy.
Net generation trends benefiting coal so far this year
Coal continues to recapture market share from natural gas. Net generation in Feb rose 4.6% yoy and is
up 6.5% ytd. Coal consumption for electric generation rose 13.7% yoy and is up 12.6% ytd. Meantime,
gas consumption fell 3.4% yoy and is up 0.7% ytd. Assuming flat trends for the balance of the year and
normal summer weather, coal consumption should finish up about 3-4%. Coal’s share of net generation
surged to 44% in Feb while gas declined to a 23% share. High gas prices have helped coal to regain lost
share. The average Henry Hub spot price in Feb was $5.97/mmBtu and 1Q average was $5.16/mmBtu.
With the spot price down to $4.74/mmBtu in April, we’d expect coal/gas share trends to be more stable
going forward.
Utility inventory trends remain favourable
The EIA released Feb 2014 inventory data this week. Coal stockpiles fell 13mm tons or 10% in Feb to
119mm tons. This is well above the 10-year average inventory drawdown of 2mm tons. Harsh winter
weather and PRB rail congestion has led to above average inventory drawdowns. Feb inventories were at
47 days of supply vs. 56 days in Jan. We assume a further inventory drawdown in March (vs. typical build
of 6mm tons) and normal seasonal trends thereafter. Based on our outlook, utility coal stockpiles can exit
the summer at 105-110mm tons or 30% below prior year levels. Based on our analysis, inventories could
finish the year around 120mm tons and be at the lowest levels seen in a decade.
TZA/ FAZ off at the open.
ReplyDeleteOpening a small position in RSX @ 22.29.
Looks like selling into strength, maybe.
ReplyDeleteWhatever happens, fade it.
ReplyDeletePretty crazy open.
ReplyDeleteWhoooooooof on the TWM, nice call.
ReplyDeleteTWM off at 48.18
ReplyDeleteFuturesTrader71 @FuturesTrader71 11m
ReplyDeleteSituation in Ukraine escalating dramatically with Putin direct warning to Kiev on violence: http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/04/24/us-ukraine-crisis-idUSBREA3L11A20140424 … #FT71 #ES_F
It is not common for #ES_F to play out Hypo 1 this quickly. Makes up for yday's non-action #FT71
Unconfirmed talk of an emergency press conference with Putin to take place in 1 hour #FT71 #ES_F
Caution on headline risk here coming out of Ukraine/Russia situation #FT71 #ES_F
HDGE off @ 12.85.
ReplyDeleteEEM @ 41.07.
ReplyDeleteThe market looks like a compressed here and I just don't think we have the energy to break through it.
ReplyDeleteI expect not as well honestly b/c the real moves come when nobody is expecting them?
DeleteOkay, so I admit I'm rather clueless as to what the whole exercise is about this morning, has Congress passed a new anti-smoking ban or something?
ReplyDeleteFLWS - Snagged by a thorn, no breakie-outtie today it seems. Surprise! :)
ReplyDeleteI'd add here but $0.10 is not enough to get me offa my ass..........
DeleteEnphase is unphased by the action.
ReplyDeleteSomeone had to say it
You should be ashamed of yourself.
DeleteSquare wave! :)
DeleteBuzzing higher!
DeleteBAS - Can't believe I missed out on this f'er.....
ReplyDeleteRH- Let's wait until 55.
ReplyDeleteMight not make it that low, but I'll join the party.
DeleteI'm still eyeing the $35 gap!
DeleteOkay then, that's a good point if the gap isn't material (and thus doesn't deserve to fill).
DeleteGM - WTF man, someone got overzealous?
ReplyDeleteidk, silver seems to be hanging in there....
ReplyDeleteWow I'm having a surprisingly good day due to csiq enph and Tzoo. I may sell some solars to buy sne. Ideally is like to build a big position in sne
ReplyDeleteAnd I'm having an underperforming day. Different type of market today I think with the more growthy, high-value stocks outperforming and the cheaper stocks underperforming.
DeleteWill be interesting to see if this is a new trend or just a blip in the trend we've seen so far this year of momo underperforming and value outperforming.
Not sure I agree man. Look at LNKD, FEYE, NOW, YNDX, GOOGL, PCLN, etc. They're all down, some big. I think you can parse through the growth stocks one by one. I'm in CSIQ, ENPH, DATE, SNE, FIG, and XUE. I consider all of them to be heavily beaten down and prior momentum names (except SNE).
DeleteCSIQ for example, a momo stock, trades at 8X earnings estimates for 2013. No idea if those estimates come through but you have the potential for Yieldco IPOs in the entire space. People are still reaching for yield, as you say. But that trend could last for a long long time because rates don't look like they're going to go up any time soon. The majority of investors expect rates to rise...in fact I think I just read that all economists recently surveyed expect them to rise. That's a little one sided to me. The true bubble could be in high yield stocks and we might still be a long way away from the top. If the yieldco IPOs come what's to say people won't clamor for those too, driving solar stocks ever higher. Shit a few of these were just decimated recently so there's a decent chance if the Sun Edison yieldco deal gets pushed up then all solars would benefit. Just a thought.
Having said this, I did take a 25% of CSIQ and ENPH off the table at $30.8 and $8.1 primarily because I'm still a little uneasy about the overall market and would like to lock in some of those gains. I kept half in cash and bought some SNE at $18.11.
So what really happened is the bears realized they stepped in a pile of poo, so they all doubled down first thing on the open?
ReplyDeleteTVIX - Apparently the VIX has lifted, but that's about all I see the bears have been able to force/scare/convince/BS bulls into doing?
ReplyDeleteWell, the overall indeces are still up today.
DeletePS, I think these bears are the same guys who had their lunch money stolen by PM miners crashing 99%.
DeleteI have to say that I'm beginning to warm up to some of the cloud/security names only because the media has shit on them for a while now and traders are avoiding them like the plague.
ReplyDeleteLike FEYE or a cloud OR security name??
DeleteI think NOW has the best long term prospects. FEYE now has what? $2 Billion in cash after 2 stock offerings?
DeleteI don't know. Just know what they do. Finnys are your game.
DeleteYeah I guess I'm just thinking about the sentiment here. It's pretty friggin awful. The drop down below the panic lows from last week is part of the reason I decided to bail on most of CSIQ today and hope for a better entry point. Nothing has changed in fact some of those cloud/security guys have reported solid earnings but the market just wants a pound of their flesh at any cost. What's to say they don't do the same to the solars given they're up 25 to 35% in 9 days?
DeleteAnyway, I do think NOW will be a huge winner longer term. I kind of view them like a CRM / VMW. Something that's always overpriced and hard to buy on valuation reasons. Shit when CRM was at 1/20th of its current price it was extremely expensive.
Sold 2/3 of my CSIQ. Heading into earnings for SPWR today just makes me cautious. Probably a dumb move. Sold for avg of $30.7.
ReplyDeleteStill holding 2/3 of my ENPH.
Sold all of my TZOO today and most of my CSIQ and am holding 2/3 ENPH, DATE, and a little SNE and FIG. About 30% long, the rest in cash. I honestly don't know what to make of the overall market. I think I'm paying way too much attention to it for one (which is hazardous for your wealth) and I think traders are way too skeptical / pessimistic so I think there's a good chance we rally right into the fed meeting next week. If we do end up going lower I'd expect to see a big spike up move followed by a complete reversal to mark the top. Maybe something like today but on a grander scale? Perhaps a move to 1900 then a drop to 1850 all in one day. Not sure. Either way I'm back to right around YTD highs and I don't mind being cautious until I get a better feel for things. I think solar could withstand a market pullback because of the longer term tailwinds but I'm willing to pare down risk until I feel better about things. I'm only working 1/3 days right now as I'm helping out a lot with the new baby so the lack of focus makes me more risk averse.
ReplyDeleteYou guys see copper today by the way? Not exactly bearish. BID had a great day today too. Could be breaking its downtrend finally. SOX near YTD highs again. I love that sector longer term. That's part of the reason I like CREE even though I got stopped out of a trade in that yesterday. CREE is a major component of the SOX and that index is breaking out much like the Nasdaq did a while ago as it tries to head back up toward all time highs.
ReplyDeleteYNDX
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-04-24/yandex-sinks-as-putin-hints-at-stronger-internet-controls.html
Rough stuff. Glad I sold it.
DeleteSPWR had a solid earnings report and raised full year guidance a little bit. It's rocking higher after hours. Now, of course, I regret selling any CSIQ as its also up 2% after hours and will probably test $34 again.
ReplyDeleteI did actually buy back some CSIQ at $30.81 and $30.9 before they started running it after hours. Oh well. Gotta man up and take some more risk from time to time.
DeleteSaw that go up 6% at open, go flat (did not have kahuna's) and back up 5.5%, amazing
DeleteNot likely in our lifetime, but fascinating. Some major powers would object due to weaponization potential.
ReplyDeletehttp://energyapps.github.io/solar/
Solar is the future, no doubt about it.
DeleteSolar is very strong in Hawaii and is causing a lot of problems for Hawaiian electric, HE, as there customers go off grid, but infrastructure costs continue to rise.
DeleteAnd dig this, in Hawaii electricity is .34 cents a Kwh on Oahu and up to .44 cents Kwh on outer islands.
DeleteOurs here is $0.121 /kwh including fees and taxes, how much does solar run?
DeleteI think I found it but not sure it's correct, otherwise electricity on Oahu would all be solar given the price differential of 1/3? This figure doesn't include any carbon taxes that might be in the pipelines either, there's no mention of it.
Delete"Solar is closing in on price parity with the likes of coal — with full-cycle, unsubsidized costs of about 13 cents per kilowatthour, versus 12 cents for advanced coal plants."
This article claims solar is cheapest of all power sources, did you guys know that already?
Deletehttp://www.treehugger.com/renewable-energy/solar-power-cheaper-natural-gas-coal-and-nuclear-power-texas.html
Hawaiian electric is doing all they can to slow/stop demand of solar, losing battle. But that is one be drawback to living in a condo in paradise, almost no way to tap into to solar for most do to small footprint and/or cost.
DeleteFor solar to really work long term, we need a better electricity storage mechanism. The big problems with the utilities now (look at Germany for an extreme) is that solar is inconsistent. The utilities are expected to maintain their generation facilities (eg. coal) for when electricity is needed and can't be provided by the preferred solar. this is working now just because the utilities have huge sunk costs, but no new backup generation will be created.
DeleteHere in Ontario, our electricity is primarily nuclear, with a lot of hydro-electric (Niagara Falls) and our costs average out around $0.09 per kilowatt. The wacky thing is we are paying farmers $0.60 per kilowatt to install solar and $0.12 for wind and funding this out of our taxes. It is mainly a job generation play as we want to build the expertise to be world leaders in green energy and have the jobs here. Politics driving business, not a good thing.
My one utility investment is Spanish utility Iberdrola (IBDRY). I like them because they are cheap, have a good dividend and have some strong regulated and unregulated markets and are a world leader in green energy. Their debt is higher than it should be, but they are working this.
Can't believe the prices you pay in Hawaii - at that price though, solar should be very competitive.
Yes but certainly even ?Hawaiian electric must have plans to construct large tracts of solar installations to replace fossil fuels, the cost of electricity should drop to 13 cents, a win-win, right?
Delete"The utilities are expected to maintain their generation facilities (eg. coal) for when electricity is needed and can't be provided by the preferred solar."
DeleteYes but the article claims the solar electricity costs 13 cents So I wonder if this a good reason to own utilities, they get paid not to burn coal but continue to have it on hand in case the sun sets? I think the old boilers aren't designed for thermal cycling, they crack from thermal stress. So this supports gas turbine generation for when the solar supply is malfunctioning (every night).
Coal, NG, and solar with numbers and projections of need to replace coal.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.forbes.com/sites/christopherhelman/2014/04/24/solar-is-booming-but-will-never-replace-coal/
Yes, 13 cents for solar is much less than the 34~44 cents Hawaiian customers pay. Full solar implementation would cause electricity price deflation, right? I pay 12.1 cents here, I'm looking forward to much lower electricity prices, bring it on!.
DeleteHere in Ontario, we were $0.068 per kilowatt up until a few years ago when we decided to go solar/wind. Nuclear is cheap, once the reactor is built.
Delete"Nuclear is cheap, once the reactor is built."
DeleteAbsolutely, a thimble-full of uranium contains enough energy to push a full size electric car over 100,000 miles.
This is confusing me a little, if coal is getting cheaper b/c we don't need it anymore, and gas is going down as well as cost for solar, then wouldn't electricity prices follow and thus the rental model become cheaper as time passes, not more expensive as this claims?
ReplyDelete"© Google / SunPower
Google is one of the leading corporations in the US for investment in renewable energy. On Earth Day (yesterday), it announced its 15th renewable energy investment, the purchase of a gigantic 407-megawatt wind farm in Iowa. Just one day later, it just announced its 16th renewable energy investment, a $100 million investment in residential solar leasing.
This is not the first time Google has invested in residential solar leasing. In 2011, it invested $280 million in partnership with SolarCity. This time, however, the partnership is with SunPower*, which is investing another $150 million itself.
The story with solar leasing is rather simple: instead of buying their own solar power systems, customers have a solar company (e.g., SolarCity, SunPower, Sunrun, Sungevity, Vivint Solar, etc.) pay for the installation of a solar power system on their roof and then pay that solar company monthly for the electricity it produces. Often, this means a homeowner can go solar for $0 or close to $0 down. The solar companies generally aim to make it such that a homeowner pays less monthly for their solar electricity than they would pay to their utility for the same amount of electricity. Payments rise over time, but so would electricity rates, and the projected long-term savings are generally in the tens of thousands."
Vivint is a ENPH partner.
DeleteWhy isn't Elon Musk working on this as opposed to trying to recolonize another planet, get that man going on this! My idea, why not just use a 35,000km long superconductor thread?
ReplyDeletehttp://energyapps.github.io/solar/
You guys are missing one huge factor: pollution
ReplyDeleteBy pollution you mean carbon emissions and the other gunk, heavy metals and sulfur, that solar doesn't generate right? I think that article tells us we should consider pollution capture technologies, there was a company I had found but can't recall the ticker. It's probably run up by now anyway.
DeleteT3d's article puts in perspective how small solar actually is.
ReplyDeleteNot that there aren't opportunities there, but the broad economy by far is still carbon based.
And the XLE is up 15% since the beginning of February, so the stocks are good.
DeleteKeep going back and looking at BP. It's the cheapest of the majors, has budgeted for likely all of the Gulf costs, is committed to improving shareholder value, and seems like almost the value guys like it. Not sexy or a 5-bagger, but I'm thinking of adding as a stable stock for my portfolio.
Okay, now I understand the excuse for wanting to short the indicies, it's "about" Putin and the continuing invasion of Ukraine. Should help keep PM's from crashing further and present a PM shorting opportunity for once the spat is resolved if PM's move high enough.
ReplyDeleteAmmonia production (for high hydrogen content) (or possibly straight hydrogen) would be a real tailwind for solar but competitive electricity production cost alone can carry solar a long way.
ReplyDeleteYep. FT71 gave a nice run-down of it on his stream -- https://twitter.com/FuturesTrader71
ReplyDeleteEspecially like his last thought: Good luck. Keep ur Chimp Brain in check today. It is Friday #FT71 #ES_F
Solar panels for EV's - Somewhere I read an article a guy had written in which he was pleading for EV manufacturers to install solar panels on the vehicles, but the subject didn't really ring a bell with me b/c that wouldn't produce enough energy to operate even the HFC A/C compressor used in an EV, LED brake and other lights yes, or perhaps a decent fan motor at times.
ReplyDeleteHelicopter transport service - Somewhere I'd been looking at a company that transports offshore oil platform employees, can't recall that ticker either....
ReplyDeleteOkay so what can we buy at a discount now that will eventually pay a dividend once rates do increase in a decade or so?
ReplyDeleteAdded to RSX @ 21.91.
ReplyDeleteAdded to EEM @ 40.66.
KB Financial - Okay, so this chart looks like a fake break of lower trend line to me.....
ReplyDeleteBTU - Up another 4%, eh?
ReplyDeleteAdded back some CSIQ at $30.1 and ENPH at $7.9
ReplyDelete