(a) FXI. Will be looking to scale in. (b) Miners continue to rally, preventing an easy 'board.' My take is that a retest lies around the corner, and in any event I don't chase prices. (c) The US Dollar has taken a pretty good hit recently, and hints at a reversal this morning. Adding UUP and RYSBX to the watch list for pitches.
Shorts still getting run down like the convicts they are, surely they make a stand at some point but maybe BB's right, the traders are being left in the dust. TBT - Next time I shouldn't let go so easily.
AGO - I dunno, kinda think South America is the focus of rescue assistance but Puerto Rico should benefit as well. Ross may have just felt compelled to take gains if he found something else such as EM's
I've noticed more and more Chinese items showing up in fleabay, have they discovered a mechanism to navigate around Wal-Mart to reach a customer base?
Man look at this f'in thing, what the hell is it? A quad core Android stick the slips into your HDMI port of a monitor or television, where's Sony with this, surely it's a high performance game box the size of a clothes pin + something more?
Wow there was a huge spike in LEJU this morning. Was out on a walk and missed it. I still think this sucker is a big long term winner. Just gotta hold through the volatility. They have only penetrated about 5% of the total real estate market in China and have partnerships with SINA, Tencent, Baidu, and Zillow. I'm still holding a good chunk of shares from $10 and don't see any reason why it can't get to $30+ next year.
If China has a good July like it seems to have every month (no guarantee) then what better way to play it than BALT? It continues to put in higher highs while rates have flatlined. Investors might be pricing in higher rates and it seems like they're just patiently holding. Barring a collapse in rates to below all time lows which I don't see happening, I expect rates to rise like they do into most Octobers. At a BDI of around 1200 they're profitable. Considering the 200% rise in rates from June to September last year, it wouldn't surprise me to see rates well into their breakeven level fairly soon.
"My take is similar to what I’ve been saying for a long time now. We are in a bull market. The price action is strong and trying to pick a top is a fool’s game. This study only confirms that we could see some decent gains the rest of ’14."
I feel better about leju given it's investment from tencent and partnerships with bidu sina z. Ej is the more boring play given leju is where the growth is
I just like the getting the safety factor from the sum of the parts discount. EJ’s 75.5% ownership of LEJU plus net cash is above its market cap, so you get the agency and consulting business for free. Plus if LEJU goes down some, you've got some other value which may help on the downside.
Went to Jefferson Starship tonight, great free concert at Herman Outdoor Theater.
Jefferson Starship soar into their 40th year in 2014, carrying one of rock music's greatest legacies and halcyon repertoires. The band continues to perform their repertoire of hits spanning all eras of their existence, including “Jane,” “Somebody To Love,” “Miracles,” “White Rabbit,” “Volunteers,” “Count On Me,” “Find Your Way Back,” “Wooden Ships,” “Today,” “Lather,” “Crown of Creation” and many more.
Ve sounded like a lame-o downgrade which is why I bought:
Morgan Stanley downgraded Veolia Environnement to equalweight from overweight as the stock has now rerated. However, the firm also said water and waste are "structurally growing industries," in which the group is well positioned. Further, Morgan Stanley sees material cyclical upside in waste management and also believes Veolia "boasts of the most ambitious restructuring programme in the sector." Shares fell 3.1% to $18.67.
GM gains opportunity from recalls, customers find it a good time to buy
General Motors' (GM) sales keep rising, despite all the recalls; instead of showroom business tanking - as Toyota’s did during its recall crisis four years ago - GM’s U.S. market share in June was 18.8%, up from 16.9% in January before it began its massive recall campaigns.
“The hardest part of selling is getting people in the door. Multiply that by millions of recalls, and that’s a lot of people coming to the dealership,” says Cars.com analyst Jesse Toprak.
Citigroup’s team thinks GM is well on its way to 10% margins, thanks in part to three uniquely valuable assets compared with Ford: a larger luxury business (Cadillac ~2x Lincoln), strong presence in high-margin large SUVs, and OnStar - combined, the three comprise ~20% of GM’s North America revenue base.
Not sure but I think fuel efficiency has increased substantially in these vehicles over the past several years, as injection fuel pressures have shot up?
BXE - Not sure if this one's running outta steam but I intend on adding into weakness. Oil has backed up in West Texas, so lack of pipelines supposedly is helping to keep prices down while pipelines are under construction.
When do automakers electric vehicles hit the market, they should be doing that into the demand !!! Maybe there's soft demand for electric vehicles?
DG - I'm thinking we need to form a bull flag instead of this bear flag, but everyone seems so anxious to jump in that might not happen, it may just rocket right back up to $60's
I'm seeing coal, copper, steel and china all rebounding nicely. I see China as currently going through a transformation right now that will smooth out over the next decade. When the US was growing rapidly and transitioning to a thriving economy in the 40's and 50's it took some time for that to develop. I do think Wilbur Ross and others will be very right on the dry bulk space. It just will probably take some time to play out. If that's the case and the 10 baggers come over say 10 years that would equate to a 26% annualized return. Nothing to sneeze at in any way, but I figure if I can get a move from $6 to $9 in the span of 3-6 months, I might subsequently miss out on more gains but in that move I'm picking up between an annualized return of 125% to 400% (50% over a 3 to 6 month span).
Obviously the challenge is in finding another big winner but I've found that the bulk of an annual move occurs within the span of 3 months or so and typically if you keep track of several ideas that are transforming into growth industries you can time several of them pretty well by buying after sharp short term pullbacks and create outsized returns vs the market. Obviously you can miss huge winners like VIPS / BIDU / CTRP / YRCW etc but you can also miss huge losers like FMD / NILE / AUMN etc.
Trivia fact - Who's the single largest employer in the county of Henrico Va.? ans: Henrico County Public Schools This has me wondering if maybe prison is anywhere near the top of the list.....
TOF, re EJ and LEJU, you are of course right. I tend to lean the other way and prefer more options for success while reducing upside and downside. Like NM for shipping with all sectors covered.
NLY - An entire six months of dividends gone in just a four days, LOL. SOSDD, this puppy will probably run right back to recent highs before next ex-div
"There is a new industrial revolution taking place around the world based on innovation. It is centered in California but there are pockets of it elsewhere in the United States and in a few places abroad. There are creative new companies being formed every day. Investors underestimate the significance of this change. It is not only in Internet-based technology, but also in biotechnology. Over the next few years you will see blockbuster products being approved for cancer and heart disease. Alzheimer's and Parkinson's are proving harder to deal with. In information technology the primary beneficiaries will be Google, Facebook, Salesforce.com, Microsoft, Amazon, LinkedIn and a few others, but not Twitter, which I view as a company feeding off the primary companies driving the change.
The money's going somewhere, VAR has been on a tear.
I dunno about the medical profession, seems like by now there'd be considerably more progress concerning treatment, not just diagnosis. Perhaps it comes eventually in a large leap.
I can definitely see and feel the surge in electronics technology, has me wondering how the shink is working out. I can tell ya, the last considerable shrink implemented at INTC was a difficult one to successfully digest through the entire line.
(a) FXI jumped +1.08%, another example of the Market disallowing easy boarding. Being a pullback guy, I'll have to keep waiting. (b) EJ closed flat. I added an additional position in LEJU @ 11.50. (c) RYSBX was closed end-of-day for a +0.74% gain! The US Dollar bounced beautifully off the 'lower band,' as is often the case (http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=UUP+Interactive#symbol=UUP;range=) which made it a high odds play. I would normally hold for further gains, but when trading leveraged funds a short holding period offers protection against what often amounts to unpredictable price behavior. The only 'guaranteed' 2x correlation is for one-day price moves.
HDSN - While out running errands in the July heat and humidity today I was sure glad the car's AC is frosty and thinking about returning home to check on this ticker. Probably not coincidental, today it broke out.
Thank you for your support as an investor in Leju.
As you mentioned, in the first quarter of 2014 Leju issued 48,440 discount coupons, of which 33,872 were redeemed. For your reference, Leju began selling discount coupons in the first quarter of 2012 and this business grew substantially in 2013. The company sold 231,008 discount coupons in 2013, with 136,106 of those coupons being redeemed.
Last year total new home sales in China numbered around 12 million in volume, which was above the average range of 9 million to 11 million witnessed during the past few years.
Reading One Up on Wall Street for the nth time. Priceless:
"In centuries past, people hearing the rooster crow as the sun came up decided that the crowing caused the sunrise. It sounds silly now, but every day the experts confuse cause and effect on Wall Street in offering some new explanation for why the market goes up: hemlines are up, a certain conference wins the Super Bowl, the Japanese are unhappy, a trendline has been broken, Republicans will win the election, stocks are "oversold" etc. When I hear theories like these, I always remember the rooster."
The real challenge of trading is to identify the controllable factors and build into the trading process means to control what can be controlled. The markets will do what the markets will do whether I buy, sell, hold, or do nothing. At the end of the day, the only control I have is over the orders I enter. – Peter L. Brandt -
It seems that when people say "this time is different", we are quite a ways along (80%) in the process. You still have some more to go so people will feel it is right and pile on, then it crushes the latecomers.
SAN DIEGO--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- Cytori Therapeutics (NASDAQ: CYTX) has received preliminary written notice of intent to exercise 'Option 1' of the Company's contract with the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA), a division of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services.
Cytori was awarded a contract with BARDA in September 2012 for the development of Cytori Cell Therapy for thermal burns combined with radiation injury worth up to $106 million. On June 10th Cytori presented data generated during the Base Period of the contract at an In-Process Review (IPR) meeting to a panel of representatives from BARDA, the Department of Defense, the Center for Disease Control, the Food and Drug Administration, and the National Institute of Health. Receipt of this notice demonstrates that this panel has determined that Cytori has accomplished the goals of the Base Period to the government's satisfaction. These goals involved preclinical studies, preliminary design and development of Cytori's next generation Celution(R) System, and an assessment of Cytori's technology in tissue samples from burn patients. Based on this notification, Cytori and BARDA are in negotiations on the specifics for the additions to the Statement of Work to be executed in the Option 1 period which will extend the contract to September 2016. It is anticipated that this process will take several weeks. Cytori will announce the contract details as soon as completed.
This project has been funded in whole or in part with Federal funds from the Department of Health and Human Services; Office of the Assistant Secretary for Preparedness and Response; Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority, under Contract No. HHSO100201200008C.
"Bank of America downgrades Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) to an Underperform rating from Neutral.Online competition could chip away at the retailer's market share, warns BofA.The investment firm drops its price target on the stock to $51."
I like both for at least a double longer term. I'm holding but I have a very low basis (~10.2).
Looking to add to BALT soon. I'm down about 5.5% on it and have a fairly large position but I think it rebounds sharply after we go through this pullback, which my best guess is it will probably be really sharp and seem pretty rough.
Mark, I don't really have a good answer on CYTX. I have a 4% position in it and am planning on holding it for a while in the hopes that it takes off like a lot of the biotechs have. No idea. It has promise but they're all very difficult to predict.
I bought some shares in ENSV today. It's a fracking / oil field services company, amongst other things. About 50% of their revenues are recurring and they're getting really strong end demand. I think it's a sleeping giant. Here's some more info: http://www.theenergyreport.com/pub/co/6224
Nautical aptitude test: You have a hen, a fox and some grain you need to transport to the other side of the river using your rowboat but there's only enough capacity for one item each trip. You can't leave the chicken behind alone with the grain b/c the chicken will eat the grain, and can't leave the fox with the chicken b/c the fox will eat the chicken, etc. Fortunately the fox doesn't eat grain.
So how many trips are required to safely transport all three cargo items?
Yep, seven crossings total. It's been a while since counting the number of crossings, so let's see... First, transport the chicken to the west side - (1st crossing) Then return to the east side to pick up the fox. (2nd crossing) Transport fox over to west side. (3rd crossing) Pick up chicken from the west side and return to the east side for the grain (4th crossing) Leave the chicken on the east side and transport the grain to the west side (5th crossing) Return to the east side pick up the chicken. (6th crossing) Transport chicken to the west side (7th crossing)
That's a lot of rowing and my arms are tired, time for a rest under the shade tree! :)
In my opinion, his call on tactical moves is only so-so. He is better on long term trends and industries. But I guess to be fair, it is very difficult for anyone to call corrections and their timing.
"Rapidly rising demand for retail and e-commerce logistics in China is providing warehouse property developers with a constant stream of business in both cities along the coast and the less developed inland regions."
News out today on EJ/LEJU: http://www.streetinsider.com/Analyst+Comments/Goldman+Sachs+Expects+Strong+Quarter+at+E-House+%28China%29+%28EJ%29+and+Leju+%28LEJU%29/9641668.html?si_client=st
I didn't see this until now. That's why it's doing well today. Will probably take its usual header into the close though. Seems to be a daily ritual before rebounding into the close.
Anyway, the fact of the matter is that 1% of homes sold are using the internet coupon / discount service that LEJU offers on its site and thru partnerships with BIDU/SINA/Tencent. Plus you have a co-branded exclusive partnership with Zillow launching in the next month or two. Lots of near and long term catalysts regardless of a 10 or 15% market pullback.
Obviously that doesn't mean EJ/LEJU will be immune to a broader market selloff. Very few companies will. But there's a massive shift moving online in China for everything and I think both of these companies stand to benefit tremendously. I like LEJU better because they are online only (and that's where everything is heading) and EJ has a non-compete with them.
Sure is but when it happens it's good to stay with things that are either dirt cheap or having unstoppable trends behind them. MA and V come to mind during 2008/9
I was watching some CNBC over lunch and it seems like the standard market theory is "we're due for a 10% correction, but we will buy that".
Thinking about it from a hedge fund and game theory perspective, that means you want to get in before it is down 10% to ensure you don't miss it, so any downturn in the market, even a 3% one will see some buying.
So, logically then, the only way we get a 10% correction is from an unexpected event that drives overwhelming selling that the dip buyers can't absorb. So we should continue to grind higher until something bad happens (bad bond sale, bad earnings, interest rates rise, political tension, terrorist attack, etc.)
Definitely some risk off today. I think this is perfect for higher prices. Not sure if they're coming but it sets the ground work. The April/May momo pullback is fresh in the minds of traders and this is the first real sign of weakness. They will bail immediately on the first sign of weakness out of fear of a repeat. That's what is happening now. So they will lay the groundwork for further upward pressure as even more money moves to the sidelines....
OINK - If any Chinese stock should go up this is one I think can b/c people need to eat, they want meat and understand the importance enough to purchase Smithfield.
Our E&P team maintained its natural gas price forecast, with 2014 natural gas price estimate at $4.75/MMBtu, 2015 at $4.50/MMBtu and 2016-2018 at $5.00/MMBtu.
Bought back my shares in BALT at $5.42. Added to SPWR at $36.4. I believe we're going through a well deserved shakeout in a lot of these stocks. And SPWR is on my short list of stocks to own for the longer term.
I like energy still and think BXE is a good buy. WTIC is only down 0.33% today on a bad market day, so showing strength. Plus with an improving economy, energy demand will almost certainly grow. ANd North Dakota producers are starting to get some pressure to act more responsibly, so will hurt supply growth there.
Yeah I read that too. I don't know what to make of the trading today. The skeptic in me says its bad that they're up into earnings but the fact it has been a dog for so long probably means it is a winner for a long time too.
Fujitsu (FJTSY) just keeps chugging along. It's thinly traded but just shows you how a company's stock can perform after they turn things around. Very similar to AA. I think SNE does the same eventually...hopefully I'll still be alive when it does!
Russell 2000 was down 4% in 4 days. That to me is at least reason for a bounce. Not saying it's a definite bottom but that's a sharp pullback and a lot of stuff I follow was down 15%.
Jeez is this Rick Santelli guy ever optimistic about anything? I just turned on CNBC for lunch to see what they were talking about and this guy just continues to be a downer.
When I look at their long term chart, it is very good other than the financial crisis. That tells me that they know how to run this business well compared to a Inco or US Steel (if those charts are still around). They must be managing the commodity cycles well to avoid the major peaks and troughs. So there move into higher end components is probably well though out and will pay off.
(a) FXI. Will be looking to scale in.
ReplyDelete(b) Miners continue to rally, preventing an easy 'board.' My take is that a retest lies around the corner, and in any event I don't chase prices.
(c) The US Dollar has taken a pretty good hit recently, and hints at a reversal this morning. Adding UUP and RYSBX to the watch list for pitches.
It's going to be a difficult trading environment. Not that it's ever easy.
ReplyDeleteRight now I'm waiting on the sidelines, but also 'vigilant.'
DeleteShorts still getting run down like the convicts they are, surely they make a stand at some point but maybe BB's right, the traders are being left in the dust.
ReplyDeleteTBT - Next time I shouldn't let go so easily.
GM - Notice the knockout just prior to the lift-off.
ReplyDeleteAGO - I dunno, kinda think South America is the focus of rescue assistance but Puerto Rico should benefit as well. Ross may have just felt compelled to take gains if he found something else such as EM's
ReplyDeleteI've noticed more and more Chinese items showing up in fleabay, have they discovered a mechanism to navigate around Wal-Mart to reach a customer base?
Man look at this f'in thing, what the hell is it? A quad core Android stick the slips into your HDMI port of a monitor or television, where's Sony with this, surely it's a high performance game box the size of a clothes pin + something more?
Deletehttp://www.ebay.com/itm/Android-4-2-RKM-XBMC-Quad-CORE-Bluetooth-1-6GHZ-TV-Stick-Box-Wireless-Keyboard-/281375032475?pt=US_Internet_Media_Streamers&hash=item418342449b
EBAY - Speaking of this one, is it overpriced here?
ReplyDeleteGTS - You wouldn't know things in PR took a turn for the worse lately by looking over this chart.
ReplyDeleteDG - This one looks like it could serve as a money pump if you were quick on the draw..
ReplyDeleteTBT - Today's line in the sand is $62.76
ReplyDeleteWow there was a huge spike in LEJU this morning. Was out on a walk and missed it. I still think this sucker is a big long term winner. Just gotta hold through the volatility. They have only penetrated about 5% of the total real estate market in China and have partnerships with SINA, Tencent, Baidu, and Zillow. I'm still holding a good chunk of shares from $10 and don't see any reason why it can't get to $30+ next year.
ReplyDeleteMKSI - Not bad, eh?
ReplyDeleteNATI too, flew right back up. NATI isn't quite the same thing but is more into providing development solutions as opposed to manufacturing solutions.
DeleteURG - Shit-ton of volume lately.
ReplyDeleteDoubled down on BALT $6.05.
ReplyDeleteTripled down at $6.05/6.06
DeleteIf China has a good July like it seems to have every month (no guarantee) then what better way to play it than BALT? It continues to put in higher highs while rates have flatlined. Investors might be pricing in higher rates and it seems like they're just patiently holding. Barring a collapse in rates to below all time lows which I don't see happening, I expect rates to rise like they do into most Octobers. At a BDI of around 1200 they're profitable. Considering the 200% rise in rates from June to September last year, it wouldn't surprise me to see rates well into their breakeven level fairly soon.
Deletelike it seems to have every year, that is.
DeleteAdded another bunch at $6. Now a 25% position
DeleteKMP let the other half go
ReplyDeletethis thing needs a rest, i'll try to get it back on a retrace
DG - Out @ $57.93, someone else can ride it up now.
ReplyDeleteMore reasons not to look for a top in 2014 from Ryan Detrick - What To Do When ‘Sell In May’ Doesn’t Work?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.seeitmarket.com/what-if-sell-in-may-doesnt-work-13661/
"My take is similar to what I’ve been saying for a long time now. We are in a bull market. The price action is strong and trying to pick a top is a fool’s game. This study only confirms that we could see some decent gains the rest of ’14."
LEJU and EJ added to the watch list. Here's to a rip in Shanghai.
ReplyDeleteScaled into EJ after hours @ 9.40
ReplyDeleteOnly Wednesday !?!?!?
ReplyDeleteBased on my quick review, EJ seems like a no-brainer to me. If it wasn't China, I'd be looking hard it tonight. But it is China, so am hesitant.
ReplyDeleteGood find though TOF.
I feel better about leju given it's investment from tencent and partnerships with bidu sina z. Ej is the more boring play given leju is where the growth is
DeleteThat'd be me - go for the more boring play!
DeleteI just like the getting the safety factor from the sum of the parts discount. EJ’s 75.5% ownership of LEJU plus net cash is above its market cap, so you get the agency and consulting business for free. Plus if LEJU goes down some, you've got some other value which may help on the downside.
My experience is the market rewards the high growth spinoff more than the parent. Case in point: NYLD up 100% in past year vs about 35% for NRG.
DeleteWent to Jefferson Starship tonight, great free concert at Herman Outdoor Theater.
ReplyDeleteJefferson Starship soar into their 40th year in 2014, carrying one of rock music's greatest legacies and halcyon repertoires. The band continues to perform their repertoire of hits spanning all eras of their existence, including “Jane,” “Somebody To Love,” “Miracles,” “White Rabbit,” “Volunteers,” “Count On Me,” “Find Your Way Back,” “Wooden Ships,” “Today,” “Lather,” “Crown of Creation” and many more.
Make that Miller Outdoor Theater.
DeleteVe sounded like a lame-o downgrade which is why I bought:
ReplyDeleteMorgan Stanley downgraded Veolia Environnement to equalweight from overweight as the stock has now rerated. However, the firm also said water and waste are "structurally growing industries," in which the group is well positioned. Further, Morgan Stanley sees material cyclical upside in waste management and also believes Veolia "boasts of the most ambitious restructuring programme in the sector." Shares fell 3.1% to $18.67.
MS was probably buying their downgrade.
DeleteGM gains opportunity from recalls, customers find it a good time to buy
ReplyDeleteGeneral Motors' (GM) sales keep rising, despite all the recalls; instead of showroom business tanking - as Toyota’s did during its recall crisis four years ago - GM’s U.S. market share in June was 18.8%, up from 16.9% in January before it began its massive recall campaigns.
“The hardest part of selling is getting people in the door. Multiply that by millions of recalls, and that’s a lot of people coming to the dealership,” says Cars.com analyst Jesse Toprak.
Citigroup’s team thinks GM is well on its way to 10% margins, thanks in part to three uniquely valuable assets compared with Ford: a larger luxury business (Cadillac ~2x Lincoln), strong presence in high-margin large SUVs, and OnStar - combined, the three comprise ~20% of GM’s North America revenue base.
Not sure but I think fuel efficiency has increased substantially in these vehicles over the past several years, as injection fuel pressures have shot up?
DeleteGBX / ARII - Still heading North.
ReplyDeleteBXE - Not sure if this one's running outta steam but I intend on adding into weakness. Oil has backed up in West Texas, so lack of pipelines supposedly is helping to keep prices down while pipelines are under construction.
ReplyDeleteWhen do automakers electric vehicles hit the market, they should be doing that into the demand !!! Maybe there's soft demand for electric vehicles?
EPD - These are the guys who own the major pipeline hub, supposedly.
DeleteNVDA - Some speculation concerning NVDA:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.tomshardware.com/news/nvidia-shield-gcf-4g-lte-tegra-k1,27184.html
Picked up some balt for the in laws account just now
ReplyDeleteDG - I'm thinking we need to form a bull flag instead of this bear flag, but everyone seems so anxious to jump in that might not happen, it may just rocket right back up to $60's
ReplyDeleteI'm seeing coal, copper, steel and china all rebounding nicely. I see China as currently going through a transformation right now that will smooth out over the next decade. When the US was growing rapidly and transitioning to a thriving economy in the 40's and 50's it took some time for that to develop. I do think Wilbur Ross and others will be very right on the dry bulk space. It just will probably take some time to play out. If that's the case and the 10 baggers come over say 10 years that would equate to a 26% annualized return. Nothing to sneeze at in any way, but I figure if I can get a move from $6 to $9 in the span of 3-6 months, I might subsequently miss out on more gains but in that move I'm picking up between an annualized return of 125% to 400% (50% over a 3 to 6 month span).
ReplyDeleteObviously the challenge is in finding another big winner but I've found that the bulk of an annual move occurs within the span of 3 months or so and typically if you keep track of several ideas that are transforming into growth industries you can time several of them pretty well by buying after sharp short term pullbacks and create outsized returns vs the market. Obviously you can miss huge winners like VIPS / BIDU / CTRP / YRCW etc but you can also miss huge losers like FMD / NILE / AUMN etc.
DeleteINTC - Punching through $31 today. Nice move from $20, huh?
ReplyDelete13:00 market close today, so get 'em while they're hot sports fans! :)
ReplyDeleteTrivia fact - Who's the single largest employer in the county of Henrico Va.? ans: Henrico County Public Schools This has me wondering if maybe prison is anywhere near the top of the list.....
ReplyDeleteHow about a mid-year portfolio update from everyone? I'll start, but leave off my Canadian-only listed stocks unless anyone is interested:
ReplyDeleteNWLI
ORI
AGO
ING
IBDRY
MET
AEG
FIATY
GM
UNP
AA
JONE
AHT
AP
NM
FLY
SORL
CNQ
BXE
SU
GIB
GIL
Ha, my list is nowhere near as extensive!
DeleteNWLI
NLY
BXE
There are a host of tickers I wish I'd bought last year !!!!
I tend to hold around 40 stocks. Half of my holdings is in the top 5 though, but I never let one stock get over 20%.
DeleteOnly holding 3 would probably be too boring for me - haha
Jesus man. Lots of holdings how do you keep track?
DeleteI have
Leju
Balt
Sne
Cytx
VE
Este (too small to count though)
Very close to adding spwr back again
I feel incrementally richer at the close, left wondering if that will still be the case come Monday morning.
ReplyDeleteTOF,
ReplyDeletere EJ and LEJU, you are of course right. I tend to lean the other way and prefer more options for success while reducing upside and downside. Like NM for shipping with all sectors covered.
You gotta be true to your style
I love nm. In fact listening to the call from q1 is what prompted me to get back into balt
DeleteNLY - An entire six months of dividends gone in just a four days, LOL. SOSDD, this puppy will probably run right back to recent highs before next ex-div
ReplyDeleteByron Wien
ReplyDeletehttp://online.barrons.com/news/articles/SB50001424053111904248904580005073897702184?mod=BOL_GoogleNews&google_editors_picks=true
"There is a new industrial revolution taking place around the world based on innovation. It is centered in California but there are pockets of it elsewhere in the United States and in a few places abroad. There are creative new companies being formed every day. Investors underestimate the significance of this change. It is not only in Internet-based technology, but also in biotechnology. Over the next few years you will see blockbuster products being approved for cancer and heart disease. Alzheimer's and Parkinson's are proving harder to deal with. In information technology the primary beneficiaries will be Google, Facebook, Salesforce.com, Microsoft, Amazon, LinkedIn and a few others, but not Twitter, which I view as a company feeding off the primary companies driving the change.
"Over the next few years you will see blockbuster products being approved for cancer and heart disease."
DeleteI've been waiting for a very long time for substantial progress and when I take a look it always seems the treatments remain symptom oriented.
CP, Isn't that the truth, I remember when I was 12 and they said we would have a cure for cancer in 20 years and that was 48 years ago.
DeleteAnd at what cost? some new cancer drug came out recently (Hep C?) and its $84,000 per month, yum. My chemo's run $54,000 per cycle.
DeleteThe money's going somewhere, VAR has been on a tear.
DeleteI dunno about the medical profession, seems like by now there'd be considerably more progress concerning treatment, not just diagnosis. Perhaps it comes eventually in a large leap.
I can definitely see and feel the surge in electronics technology, has me wondering how the shink is working out. I can tell ya, the last considerable shrink implemented at INTC was a difficult one to successfully digest through the entire line.
PGH - This one seems to be a hot one.
ReplyDelete(a) FXI jumped +1.08%, another example of the Market disallowing easy boarding. Being a pullback guy, I'll have to keep waiting.
ReplyDelete(b) EJ closed flat. I added an additional position in LEJU @ 11.50.
(c) RYSBX was closed end-of-day for a +0.74% gain! The US Dollar bounced beautifully off the 'lower band,' as is often the case (http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=UUP+Interactive#symbol=UUP;range=)
which made it a high odds play. I would normally hold for further gains, but when trading leveraged funds a short holding period offers protection against what often amounts to unpredictable price behavior. The only 'guaranteed' 2x correlation is for one-day price moves.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HRql4xdsMdM
ReplyDeleteIf they'd only had youtube in the Sixties.
DeleteDude, that's cool!
DeleteHDSN - While out running errands in the July heat and humidity today I was sure glad the car's AC is frosty and thinking about returning home to check on this ticker. Probably not coincidental, today it broke out.
ReplyDeleteInteresting article and take on the plight of the middle class in USA.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.newyorker.com/talk/financial/2014/07/07/140707ta_talk_surowiecki
Happy 4th fellas. Good article on how hated this market is. Shit we could see 3000 on the s&p by the time the public is all in:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.cbsnews.com/news/stocks-soar-and-most-americans-just-dont-care/
From leju ir
ReplyDelete"Dear Mr.,
Thank you for your support as an investor in Leju.
As you mentioned, in the first quarter of 2014 Leju issued 48,440 discount coupons, of which 33,872 were redeemed. For your reference, Leju began selling discount coupons in the first quarter of 2012 and this business grew substantially in 2013. The company sold 231,008 discount coupons in 2013, with 136,106 of those coupons being redeemed.
Last year total new home sales in China numbered around 12 million in volume, which was above the average range of 9 million to 11 million witnessed during the past few years.
Best
Looks like around 1% penetration of new homes. I followed up to see what existing homes market size is and if they will offer coupons for those
ReplyDeleteSpeaking of coupons, I plan to use this one today: http://app.bedbathandbeyond.com/prefs/pref.cfm
ReplyDeleteHope it saves one of you a little pocket change (prior to expiration 7/14/14).
Reading One Up on Wall Street for the nth time. Priceless:
ReplyDelete"In centuries past, people hearing the rooster crow as the sun came up decided that the crowing caused the sunrise. It sounds silly now, but every day the experts confuse cause and effect on Wall Street in offering some new explanation for why the market goes up: hemlines are up, a certain conference wins the Super Bowl, the Japanese are unhappy, a trendline has been broken, Republicans will win the election, stocks are "oversold" etc. When I hear theories like these, I always remember the rooster."
cockadoodledoo
ReplyDeletehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gJ493mj27I8
"this time is different" - hmmm
ReplyDeleteMakes you wonder if bulls aren't getting too cocky huh?
ReplyDeleteThe real challenge of trading is to identify the controllable factors and build into the trading process means to control what can be controlled. The markets will do what the markets will do whether I buy, sell, hold, or do nothing. At the end of the day, the only control I have is over the orders I enter. – Peter L. Brandt -
ReplyDeleteIt seems that when people say "this time is different", we are quite a ways along (80%) in the process. You still have some more to go so people will feel it is right and pile on, then it crushes the latecomers.
ReplyDeleteNews from cytx today is good
ReplyDeleteSAN DIEGO--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- Cytori Therapeutics (NASDAQ: CYTX) has received preliminary written notice of intent to exercise 'Option 1' of the Company's contract with the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA), a division of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services.
Cytori was awarded a contract with BARDA in September 2012 for the development of Cytori Cell Therapy for thermal burns combined with radiation injury worth up to $106 million. On June 10th Cytori presented data generated during the Base Period of the contract at an In-Process Review (IPR) meeting to a panel of representatives from BARDA, the Department of Defense, the Center for Disease Control, the Food and Drug Administration, and the National Institute of Health. Receipt of this notice demonstrates that this panel has determined that Cytori has accomplished the goals of the Base Period to the government's satisfaction. These goals involved preclinical studies, preliminary design and development of Cytori's next generation Celution(R) System, and an assessment of Cytori's technology in tissue samples from burn patients. Based on this notification, Cytori and BARDA are in negotiations on the specifics for the additions to the Statement of Work to be executed in the Option 1 period which will extend the contract to September 2016. It is anticipated that this process will take several weeks. Cytori will announce the contract details as soon as completed.
This project has been funded in whole or in part with Federal funds from the Department of Health and Human Services; Office of the Assistant Secretary for Preparedness and Response; Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority, under Contract No. HHSO100201200008C.
BBBY announced a $2 billion stock buyback and still has $861 million open on the current buyback on a $11.8 billion market cap. No debt.
ReplyDeleteStock still under $60.
I've been watching it closely
DeleteNot bad to see either:
Delete"Bank of America downgrades Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) to an Underperform rating from Neutral.Online competition could chip away at the retailer's market share, warns BofA.The investment firm drops its price target on the stock to $51."
Thanks for the update on CYTX. I was looking at it this weekend and need to do a lot more. It's pretty complicated.
ReplyDeleteKaas always tweets about this one. MONIF. Has something to do with mobile/finance I think.
ReplyDelete(a) EJ off @ 9.80 (+4%).
ReplyDelete(b) LEFU off @ 11.78 (+2.4%).
Miners headed down.
ReplyDeleteGood morning all! :)
ReplyDeleteTBT - Coming back to me under $60 ???
ReplyDeleteNGas taking a hit.
ReplyDeleteSomething to do with Russian withdrawal from Ukrane?
Delete'Morning, CP!
ReplyDeleteENPH..wow.
ReplyDeleteWow in a good way. I think we had a $10.xx target on that one.
DeleteTrying UGAZ @ 20.06.
ReplyDeleteCYTX- I'm a little surprised...unless this option is always extending pending review?? So no real news?
ReplyDeleteBALT - Coming to us
ReplyDeleteBXE - I wanna add to this one or re-enter DG, not sure which is the better move.
ReplyDeleteLEJU taking off.
ReplyDeleteLove a good sneeze in the morning! :)
DeleteNLS - Maybe we get "lucky" and NLS comes back to fill the $9 gap up?
ReplyDeleteBALT - Getting whacked pretty good, it's tempting.
ReplyDeleteWatching EJ and LEJU for re-entries.
ReplyDeleteWatching TSEM on the breakout above 10 (Shark's pick).
Israeli stock, my policy is only buy those once they're already beat to heck, like 50% discount from 52 week highs.
DeleteUGA - Down even more, I noticed gasoline prices came off late last week which was a bit of a surprise considering the summer holiday.
ReplyDeleteTSEM @ 9.95.
ReplyDeleteEJ @ 9.75. LEJU @ 11.95.
ReplyDeleteI like both for at least a double longer term. I'm holding but I have a very low basis (~10.2).
DeleteLooking to add to BALT soon. I'm down about 5.5% on it and have a fairly large position but I think it rebounds sharply after we go through this pullback, which my best guess is it will probably be really sharp and seem pretty rough.
Mark, I don't really have a good answer on CYTX. I have a 4% position in it and am planning on holding it for a while in the hopes that it takes off like a lot of the biotechs have. No idea. It has promise but they're all very difficult to predict.
I bought some shares in ENSV today. It's a fracking / oil field services company, amongst other things. About 50% of their revenues are recurring and they're getting really strong end demand. I think it's a sleeping giant. Here's some more info:
http://www.theenergyreport.com/pub/co/6224
LEJU off @ 12.09.
ReplyDeleteThat was you selling all of those shares?!?
DeleteTSEM off @ 10.23.
ReplyDeleteUGAZ off for a loss @ 19.79.
ReplyDeletePicked up a little SPWR at $38.96. Not really expecting this to be THE bottom so I'm just looking for a snap back rally this afternoon.
ReplyDeleteIf there's no rally back to the $40 area soon I'm out. Basically just a day trade.
DeleteNautical aptitude test:
ReplyDeleteYou have a hen, a fox and some grain you need to transport to the other side of the river using your rowboat but there's only enough capacity for one item each trip. You can't leave the chicken behind alone with the grain b/c the chicken will eat the grain, and can't leave the fox with the chicken b/c the fox will eat the chicken, etc. Fortunately the fox doesn't eat grain.
So how many trips are required to safely transport all three cargo items?
I get 7.
DeleteRound trips or one way trips?
DeleteYep, seven crossings total. It's been a while since counting the number of crossings, so let's see...
DeleteFirst, transport the chicken to the west side - (1st crossing)
Then return to the east side to pick up the fox. (2nd crossing)
Transport fox over to west side. (3rd crossing)
Pick up chicken from the west side and return to the east side for the grain (4th crossing)
Leave the chicken on the east side and transport the grain to the west side (5th crossing)
Return to the east side pick up the chicken. (6th crossing)
Transport chicken to the west side (7th crossing)
That's a lot of rowing and my arms are tired, time for a rest under the shade tree! :)
Looks like that would be 3.5 round trips.
DeleteEJ off @ 9.82.
ReplyDeleteRe-entry into TSEM @ 10.11.
ReplyDeleteTrying UGAZ again @ 19.51.
ReplyDeleteOut 19.61.
DeleteSaut calling for a 10 to 12% correction imminently:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.raymondjames.com/inv_strat.htm
If the media is keyed in on this then it probably means it happens in another month.
In my opinion, his call on tactical moves is only so-so. He is better on long term trends and industries. But I guess to be fair, it is very difficult for anyone to call corrections and their timing.
DeleteAnd I do like him - he is one the guys I make sure to read every week,
DeleteYeah he's not perfect and I don't hold anyone to that standard. Just worth keeping in mind because he's pretty good.
Delete"Rapidly rising demand for retail and e-commerce logistics in China is providing warehouse property developers with a constant stream of business in both cities along the coast and the less developed inland regions."
ReplyDeleteSold SPWR at $38.87. Raising some cash in stuff underperforming. Sold some BALT at $5.65 to $5.7 today as well.
ReplyDeleteNews out today on EJ/LEJU:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.streetinsider.com/Analyst+Comments/Goldman+Sachs+Expects+Strong+Quarter+at+E-House+%28China%29+%28EJ%29+and+Leju+%28LEJU%29/9641668.html?si_client=st
I didn't see this until now. That's why it's doing well today. Will probably take its usual header into the close though. Seems to be a daily ritual before rebounding into the close.
Anyway, the fact of the matter is that 1% of homes sold are using the internet coupon / discount service that LEJU offers on its site and thru partnerships with BIDU/SINA/Tencent. Plus you have a co-branded exclusive partnership with Zillow launching in the next month or two. Lots of near and long term catalysts regardless of a 10 or 15% market pullback.
Obviously that doesn't mean EJ/LEJU will be immune to a broader market selloff. Very few companies will. But there's a massive shift moving online in China for everything and I think both of these companies stand to benefit tremendously. I like LEJU better because they are online only (and that's where everything is heading) and EJ has a non-compete with them.
DeleteBroad market selloff "gonna happen someday" = Broken promise.
DeleteSure is but when it happens it's good to stay with things that are either dirt cheap or having unstoppable trends behind them. MA and V come to mind during 2008/9
DeleteRight, have to keep the market phobia alive and well, discourage exposure therapy.
DeleteENPH - Ah, shit! :(
ReplyDeleteTSEM off @ 10.33
ReplyDeleteEJ on again 9.72, off again 9.80.
UGAZ @ 19.41.
ReplyDeleteOff 19.56.
DeleteGood trading today.
DeleteHeres what I'm thnking:
ReplyDeleteI was watching some CNBC over lunch and it seems like the standard market theory is "we're due for a 10% correction, but we will buy that".
Thinking about it from a hedge fund and game theory perspective, that means you want to get in before it is down 10% to ensure you don't miss it, so any downturn in the market, even a 3% one will see some buying.
So, logically then, the only way we get a 10% correction is from an unexpected event that drives overwhelming selling that the dip buyers can't absorb. So we should continue to grind higher until something bad happens (bad bond sale, bad earnings, interest rates rise, political tension, terrorist attack, etc.)
Definitely some risk off today. I think this is perfect for higher prices. Not sure if they're coming but it sets the ground work. The April/May momo pullback is fresh in the minds of traders and this is the first real sign of weakness. They will bail immediately on the first sign of weakness out of fear of a repeat. That's what is happening now. So they will lay the groundwork for further upward pressure as even more money moves to the sidelines....
DeleteUSU - Wild ride there, eh?
ReplyDeleteAll right. Everything I can find on CYTX seems pretty interesting. In at 2.32... but I'm a sucker for these medical plays.
ReplyDeleteGot your waders and Google goggles on? BACML has a $12 objective assigned to OREX, a double from here.
DeleteOINK - If any Chinese stock should go up this is one I think can b/c people need to eat, they want meat and understand the importance enough to purchase Smithfield.
ReplyDeleteUUP - iH&S, no wonder PMs are taking a break.
ReplyDeleteie: Putting the brakes on PMs, woe Nelly.
DeleteTaking an overnight position in TSEM @ 10.18.
ReplyDeleteSH - Talk about donning your waders, the SH looks like a storm victim.
ReplyDeleteARNA - " Arena CEO Dumps Stock as Share Price, Investor Confidence Slide at TheStreet"
ReplyDeletehttp://www.fool.com/investing/general/2014/07/07/dryships-and-navios-maritime-holdings-are-at-odds.aspx
ReplyDeleteInteresting article on shipping prices:
UBS NG guess
ReplyDeleteOur E&P team maintained its natural gas price forecast, with 2014 natural gas price estimate at
$4.75/MMBtu, 2015 at $4.50/MMBtu and 2016-2018 at $5.00/MMBtu.
UGAZ 19.03, seems overdone
ReplyDeleteMorning ladies.
DeleteGood morning, my pretty!
DeleteNWLI - There are no sellers, my sell bid is showing $262.62
ReplyDeleteZGNX - Ouch, down.
ReplyDeleteAnother sucker bet for me. Long MONIF @.70...I know, I know...
ReplyDeleteMan, we bounce a little and immediately get hammered lower. That's new.
ReplyDeleteBizzaro world this morning, looks like the buying op we were denied last week.
ReplyDeleteTrying BALT @ .42. .40, .38
ReplyDeleteHas a bomb gone off somewhere or what?
ReplyDeleteBXE - Added to this one, now a 3/4 position.
ReplyDelete$8.80
DeletePartial fill of remaining 1/4 at $8.72
DeleteAll done, ready for for ride back up.
DeleteMONIF..Holly crap, I know I should take the easy win but I'm going to be patient for a change. Kiss of death I know... later gators.
ReplyDeleteBought SPWR back at $36.5.
ReplyDeleteBought back my shares in BALT at $5.42. Added to SPWR at $36.4. I believe we're going through a well deserved shakeout in a lot of these stocks. And SPWR is on my short list of stocks to own for the longer term.
ReplyDeleteAdded more SPWR at $36.09
ReplyDeleteIronically, does AA come to the rescue today? The former dog now the leader?
ReplyDeleteNG/oil - I guess this is about Putin changing his tune and playing nice for a while.
ReplyDeleteSoftware Coding is the new literacy:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.motherjones.com/media/2014/06/computer-science-programming-code-diversity-sexism-education
Added more SPWR at $36.07.
ReplyDeleteKB - Upgraded - "29-Mar-07 Upgrade Bear Stearns Peer Perform → Outperform"
ReplyDeleteEnjoying today's energy stock discount, maybe this lasts a few days before shooting up a flag pole?
ReplyDeleteSold SPWR at $37.3. Bought some more LEJU at $10.75.
ReplyDeleteCP,
ReplyDeleteI like energy still and think BXE is a good buy. WTIC is only down 0.33% today on a bad market day, so showing strength. Plus with an improving economy, energy demand will almost certainly grow. ANd North Dakota producers are starting to get some pressure to act more responsibly, so will hurt supply growth there.
Looking at the industry ETF's, other than the safety stocks (Staples and Utilities), Energy and Basic Materials performing the best.
DeleteStill seem to me like we are moving into more of a late cycle economy and energy should do well.
Yep, I'm under the assumption this must be some sort of fake knockout play.
DeleteAA green today so far - hope expectations aren't too high.
ReplyDeleteDetrick has an interesting chart on Alcoa results:
http://ryandetrick.tumblr.com/post/82219003268/so-goes-alcoa-goes-earnings-season
Yeah I read that too. I don't know what to make of the trading today. The skeptic in me says its bad that they're up into earnings but the fact it has been a dog for so long probably means it is a winner for a long time too.
DeleteBack in SPWR long at $36.7
ReplyDeleteFujitsu (FJTSY) just keeps chugging along. It's thinly traded but just shows you how a company's stock can perform after they turn things around. Very similar to AA. I think SNE does the same eventually...hopefully I'll still be alive when it does!
ReplyDeleteRussell 2000 was down 4% in 4 days. That to me is at least reason for a bounce. Not saying it's a definite bottom but that's a sharp pullback and a lot of stuff I follow was down 15%.
ReplyDeleteYeah, it's amazing how fast some of these things come off.
DeleteXLE is green.
ReplyDeleteCP- What do you know about BXE?
It's one BB sniffed out, I'm just buying the pullback! :)
DeleteMBI- Anyone have a take on this POS?
ReplyDeleteClosed HDGE @ 11.95. Opening RYJUX at the close.
ReplyDeleteUGAZ off at 19.33
ReplyDeleterotated to XCO
Jeez is this Rick Santelli guy ever optimistic about anything? I just turned on CNBC for lunch to see what they were talking about and this guy just continues to be a downer.
ReplyDeleteThey sure nailed shippers and solar today.
ReplyDeleteEnergy getting a small bid.
Mark, re BXE:
ReplyDeletehttp://reminiscencesofastockblogger.com/2014/06/22/taking-advantage-of-the-disappointment-with-bellatrix/#more-5090
I've owned it for several years and bought under $4 back in the bad times. They have great resources and are doing a good job of unlocking the value.
Looks like some good numbers out of AA with beats on earnings and revenues and the stock up after hours.
ReplyDeleteIt's my feeling (I haven't done any work on it) that earnings season has been good for stocks the last few quarters, so may be the same here.
They're saying AA's components manufacturing efforts are paying off.
DeleteWhen I look at their long term chart, it is very good other than the financial crisis. That tells me that they know how to run this business well compared to a Inco or US Steel (if those charts are still around). They must be managing the commodity cycles well to avoid the major peaks and troughs. So there move into higher end components is probably well though out and will pay off.
DeleteIs it time to sell stocks now that Mexicans have begun migrating north instead out of migrating south?
ReplyDeleteNew Postage.
ReplyDelete