Thursday, August 21, 2014

8/21/14 Einstein's Greatest Hits

This has to be his number one hit:


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/investing/10742396/When-saving-for-10-years-pays-more-than-saving-for-40.html


'Save from [age] 21 to 30, then stop. You will have a bigger pension than a saver who starts at [age] 30 and stops at 70. The miracle of compound interest, Einstein's 'eighth wonder of the world.’ 

If you have the maturity and discipline (I didn't get there 'til my mid-thirties) to begin saving immediately upon graduation, do it.

28 comments:

  1. How many of us actually pull that off? Not me :(

    BB- Honestly we don't do any UC fridges in the kitchen any more. Frankly bending over to reach in there sucks...think hotels. A 4' fridge wont hold all your beer? Mine does.

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    1. Thanks Mark. You probably just saved me $1,500!

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  2. I love articles like this. Thanks for sharing. I passed it on to the younger ones in our family. Reminds me to get going on setting up the 529 plans for my kids

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  3. Since Blogger is owned by GOOG, why is it such a piece of shit platform?? I mean seroiusly, web links don't work? No way to insert simple pictures into comments.

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  4. I saved by entering real estate, that was my plan once mortgage rates were 7% it seemed like a bargain.

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  5. So what will the FED be harping today at JH?

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  6. Canada - "Canada Economic Weekly: Finally, cause for optimism 8/22/2014 1:39 PM
    CPI surprised to the downside in July, falling 0.2% mom, taking the yoy rate to 2.1%. Core inflation also cooled to 1.7% yoy. GDP likely rose by 2.6% in 2Q (Fri), and June GDP growth of 0.2% would provide a decent handoff to 3Q. We are seeing encouraging, but nascent, signs that stronger US demand is translating to higher Canadian growth and exports."

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  7. Real Estate works as an investment if your levered. Otherwise make it a good LT investment and LIVE in it. Do you guys know what renters look like? :)

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  8. Had a pretty active morning. Sold ARO pretty much at the bottom..$3.55. Bought a bunch of EJ in the $11.3 to $11.6 area. My average is $11.6 on everything.

    I also bought some more BALT unfortunately too high. At $5.99. I have about 10% in that one and am looking to just hold on to it for a while and maybe trade in and out.

    I also bought a small position in this company XXII which has patents on genetically modifying plants so that they can control the amount of nicotine in them. Its an interesting little company.

    By the way, the dollar continues to set up for a potential parabolic move higher just like Nat Gas did. I think I mentioned this back in March maybe...If that happens I would avoid all US based stocks in the short/intermediate term as it would create significant headwinds for them. On a spike I could see stocks cascading lower. The things that SHOULD hold up would presumably be China/emerging market stocks and Japan stocks, amongst others.

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    1. "The things that SHOULD hold up would presumably be China/emerging market stocks and Japan stocks, amongst others. "

      You would think so, and US rates are higher than Germany too....?

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  9. That EJ chart is just percolating.

    Any of you guys follow this Ferguson thing at all? There's a company that has been running on this news: DGLY. I bought a few shares in it at $7.90 today in the off chance that it does a TASR circa 2003. Company is only worth about $19 Million.

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  10. (a) RYTPX was closed at the 1030 window for a +0.26% gain.
    (b) I decided against making a U-turn into RYTNX, as the tepid morning pullback never provided a decent entry on the long side.
    (c) I traded EJ (China real estate services) between 11.45 and 12 (currently bidding 12.30, so I left money on the table).
    (d) I took a flyer in UGAZ @ 14.69, which I closed @ 14.53 for a minor loss.
    (e) Miners? Closing SLW here @ 24.95 for a minor gain. Closing Goldcorp flat. GDX currently up slightly +0.2%, which may give me a small gain on RYPMX at the close.
    (f) I have no high conviction takes heading into the weekend, so my only remaining position will be the small HDGE I’ve had running for a few weeks.

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  11. One of these years I'm going to get better at exiting my winners later or at least over a period of a few weeks. I sold my LEJU at $14 average. I am having deja vu with YRCW all over again.

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  12. I guess the good thing is I have EJ and I would suppose that it's only a matter of time before EJ ramps higher. Based on the closing price it looks like EJ's stake in LEJU is worth:

    133 million shares x 18.4 x 0.75 = $1.835 Billion

    EJ's market cap is $1.77 Billion as of the close

    EJ has $600 Million in cash and I think about $110 Million in debt so net cash around $490 Million. So that would be another $3.30 or so to add on top of the $12.60 asset value of LEJU holding. Very interesting scenario here.

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    1. Although you could argue that a company like SINA is a perfect example of why this might not happen. SINA owns 60% of WB which is worth $4.0 Billion. That equates to $2.4 Billion. SINA has about $1 Billion in net cash. The combo is $3.4 Billion. SINA is worth $3.1 Billion. The issue with that comparison is WB is a social platform that is unprofitable and has a huge valuation. Plus WeChat is a major competitor of Weibo and it is beating them. So odds are WB goes down in value.

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    2. I remember seeing this a bunch of times back in 1999 / 2000, and things did eventually get in synch, but it took longer than I thought it would. The last few years, these types of situations haven't been that common and I think get back to proper values pretty quickly.

      I think the EJ / LEJU situation is similar to the one you described, where the traders are playing the LEJU because it moves faster and the investors and more interested in EJ because of the value. But the investors are probably concerned because it is newly public, small float (how much does EJ own) China, moved up quickly, etc.and aren't willing to give it full value. But traders don't care - they just hear the good story and buy, even if owning EJ makes much more sense.

      It's amazing how dumb some traders are if you actually look at what they do.

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    3. Yeah there's definitely a discount for not being sure if leju was worth what it is trading for. The discount is far greater than the sina / wb one though which doesn't make sense because leju appears to be taking market share from sfun the leader while wb is losing market share from tencent and that is reflected in the prices of wb and leju. In the case of sina / wb the stake sina has isn't worth nearly as much relative to its market cap as the leju / ej relationship. I had a strong feeling this disparity would occur which is why I chose leju initially so I should have stuck with my gut. The zillow partnership should be coming out which will be a catalyst as well

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  13. Wow "@MktOutperform: Commodity relative strength at new 14-year lows, back to 2000 levels. $CRB $SPX pic.twitter.com/zryGHlLB0Z"

    Twitter from Detrick. Pretty amazing.

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    1. Yeah, oil looks like it going to $81, sheesh! Hope it happens fast, this is taking way too long.

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  14. I think I made about 45% on my ENPH trade. If I bought when I sold I would have made 100%.

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    1. I need to find one that actually goes up instead of down.

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  15. ALDW - This refiner sits right there where the oil is. Anybody guess what happens when a refiner has access to plentiful cheap feedstock?

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