Sunday, August 24, 2014

8/24/14 Reading the next play

(a) Note the spectacular dive in commodities since early summer: http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=DBC+Interactive#symbol=DBC;range=

(b) Sentiment in the commodities sector?  If you've been following crude, NGas, and gold (or simply watching prices at the pump), it's no surprise we're at a low.

(c) On the other hand, emerging markets (notable producers and consumers of commodities) have been on a tear.

Gretkzy liked setting up behind opponents' nets, and so do I.  The reversion-to-the-mean play here appears to be DBC/RYMBX (Rydex Commodities) off the sentiment low/ EEM high.

122 comments:

  1. Feel the earthquake last night, Mark?

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    1. http://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/Magnitude-6-0-earthquake-reported-in-Napa-County-5708791.php

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  2. Perhaps with commodities as low as this, there's a lot of deliveries taking place and this helps explain the recent strength behind bulk shippers and BDI?

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    1. Market moves are always stealth moves, and it's up to us to read the clues.

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    2. Of course, I'm hoping for a capitulation move in miners, which may coincide with a capitulation move in oil/gas as well.

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  3. 2nd- Yeah. It was pretty strong. Only some broken pictures though.

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    1. Glad your all ok over there, Mark.

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    2. How are things with you, illini? How's the knee?

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    3. Hi 2nd. It was a hip 4 years and its doing ok except for one big thing: The implant device has been recalled because of metal on metal deterioration. Now I am monitored for cobalt and chromium poisoning. I hate the Stryker Corporation.

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    4. Product recall? A lawsuit can't be far behind. Are they offering a revision surgery?

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    5. Stryker is already deeply involved in litigation. They do not "offer" revision surgery. They contest it. Your orthopedic surgeon does the revision surgery for those with sever pain. I have mild pain so far. I am lawered up. The industry has managed to obtain a statute of limitations on device failure. Most disgusting is that they pushed through the FDA a fast track approval process for the devise. Of course it was approved by our corporate controlled government.

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  4. LOS ANGELES (MarketWatch) -- U.S. stock-index futures and other trading on CME Group Inc.'s CME, +0.29% Globex platform has been delayed due to an unspecified technical problem, the bourse operator said Sunday. In an alert on its website, CME said the normal Globex open at 5 p.m. U.S. Central time (6 p.m. Eastern time) had been delayed for all its markets, with the sole exception of Malaysian derivatives. A post on Twitter from the group's account added: "CME Globex is experiencing a technical issue, and we're working towards a solution. We'll keep you posted on any updates." CME analyst Jerry Kukowski said that any orders which did go through before the halt would be canceled, according to Business Insider, which quoted him as saying: "Nothing traded tonight is going to stand."

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  5. But he said the crisis in Ferguson could help niche firms by increasing demand for cameras, more coordinating centers and better training.

    Digital Ally (DGLY.O), which makes tiny digital video cameras worn by police officers, and Taser International Inc, which makes stun guns, have seen a sharp increase in interest in their products since Aug. 9, the day of the fatal shooting in Ferguson.

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  6. This is one thing that concerns me and I think about quite a bit:

    http://www.crossingwallstreet.com/archives/2014/08/the-small-cap-cycle-could-be-over.html

    Because we've been in a small cap outperformance cycle since 2000, which is basically when I actively started trading my own stocks, I wonder how my trading will be affected if we are in a large cap cycle. Hopefully I will be smart enough to identify it and and jump on board, but I'm really not sure if I would be better off trading large caps or still do better with small caps, but will just be more work.

    I think figuring this out could be one of the most important factors for market outperformance for the next 10 years.

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    Replies
    1. Buy a large cap leveraged index.

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    2. Assuming this migration is happening, might be the best approach. The information advantage we have in small is gone when buying stocks with 40 analysts covering them.

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    3. There are still plenty of small cap opportunities though. Plenty. The fact that a lack of liquidity is a major concern is what will keep most of the market away from them.

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  7. TOF, re energy companies, I also find them hard to completely understand. I get the concepts behind them, but they are not as easy to analyze as many companies. But I will often buy stocks that I don't fully understand if I think the macro trend is important to catch or for diversification, etc. I generally try to find a smart investor to get ideas from and take smaller positions and over diversify to protect risks. Which is why I have a lot of small energy holdings instead of a couple of large ones.

    Having said that, I am generally more successful, when I fully analyze and understand a stock. Currently, over half of my portfolio is in my top 6 stocks and these are all stocks without analyst coverage where I have done a lot of work on my own.

    Would I be better off if I just stuck to my well-researched stocks and put more money into these instead of diversifying into some of these less understood stocks? Maybe (and I should probably figure it out), but I do see value in being more diversifies and reducing risks.

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    1. I'm a big believer in not diversifying. I think having more than 10 holdings is way too much. But I understand the reason why people do it, especially if you don't have a ton of time to look at them. I pretty much obsess over my holdings and spend the majority of my day researching things pertaining to them or to others that I'm considering. If people have full time jobs and are generally not as focused them I get it.

      With energy - its similar to my concern about gold / mining stocks: you're very subject to a commodity whose price is difficult to determine based on supply and demand. However, its definitely easier with oil and its tied into economic growth so that makes sense. I am a bit of an optimist with regards to alternative energy sources though and I think this will have a major impact on the oil/energy field and casts a lot of doubt in my mind about the long term sustainability of $100+ oil.

      By the way the retail trade is definitely gaining steam. Look at BBBY, PIR, ARO, TLYS, M, JWN, etc. The media is trashing on them yet their trading is strong.

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  8. S&P 500 now above 2000. You'd generally expect a pullback at such a major round number.

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  9. 11:42 AM EDT, 08/25/2014 (MT Newswires) -- Shares of Digital Ally (DGLY), a maker of video imaging products for law enforcement, surged 60% on Monday on news that President Obama has ordered a review of the distribution of military equipment to local and state police forces.
    The review was ordered out of concern at the ways in which military equipment was used by police to quell racial unrest in Ferguson, Missouri.
    Last Wednesday, DGLY made a statement that inquiries for its FirstVU HD Body Camera had increased dramatically following the unrest in Ferguson, Missouri. DGLY shares were up 216% over the past 5 days as of Friday's close.
    In Monday late morning trading, DGLY were changing hands at $12.75 per share on nearly 10 million shares, 10 times average daily volume. The 52-week range is $3.03 - $17.47.

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  10. I ended up bailing on a good chunk of my longs today. Sold EJ at $11.9ish avg for a 2% or so gain. I had a good feeling I should have bailed on it all when it was up today but only sold a little then.

    Just holding DGLY ENSV and PIR right now.

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  11. The way retailers are trading makes me think that the casino stocks are a good bet soon.

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    1. I don't follow the casinos, but I do follow the hotel industry quite closely and they are in a very good spot. The last down cycle was so harsh that we are not seeing the typical level of investment we would see in them so rates are holding up very well and are expected to for much longer than usual. I would imagine the same applies to the casinos.

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  12. I agree that small caps are still fine now. But I do remember in the late 1990's, the large caps were the place to be with the s&p 500 up 20% a year.. We may be moving into something like that over the next couple of years.

    I'm just be extra conscious of this because small caps seem so extended in general

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  13. Was thinking more about this and went back and did some chart eyeballing.

    From 1995 - 2000, the S&P 500 went up twice as much as the Russell/2000
    From 2000 - 2014, the Russell/2000 has gone up more than triple the S&P 500

    SO, big long trends with substantial outperformance in the 2 periods.

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  14. Needham initiates ENPH with $20 Buy.

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  15. TOF,

    the thing about the oil market in particular is most easy substitutions (eg. home heating, commercial use) have been made and the bulk of oil use now is in transportation. And oil is a very efficient delivery mechanism - think that 1 gallon of oil can move a 3000 pound machine 30 miles - for $3.00. Electric and natural gas cars are a nice idea, but at $3.00 gas, it's hard to justify the switch, especially since all the oil infrastructure is in place through gas stations. Maybe it makes sense in big trucks or locamotives where the fuel costs are so high, but I Jet FUel is a very hard one to substitute

    With cars, you've got growing demand from China, etc. being offset by better fuel efficiency and public transportation in the developed world, but you still have China with 10% of the per capita oil usage of an American, so I think demand grows.

    The harder part of the equation is supply growth. For many years, well life cycles were pretty predicable, but with fracing and horizontal drilling, so much has changed. Most of these new types of wells require say $70+ oil, so there will be a floor on pricing or supply will be cut.

    So, the safe approach is to buy the high ROE, low cost energy producers as they can make money as most prices, but those ones don't give the leverage for good returns.

    But, the hard part with energy and all commodities is they are riskier than normal business and seem to hit lots of issues. So, another reason I like to own a basket.

    The other rational I have for owning oil is to kind of offset my own usage. I figure if oil goes up, my cost of living goes up, but it will be offset by my energy stocks going up and vicaversa.

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  16. The big guy 'played up' this weekend at a local tournament (U14 rather than his usual U13) as a guest. They placed first.

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  17. http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2014/08/25/two-buck-chuck-earthquake-damage-two-bottles/?mod=MW_story_latest_news

    'Fred Franzia, founder of the Bronco Wine Company that sells the cheap wine, said only two bottles were broken by the earthquake and none at the warehouse at Napa Ridge Winery warehouse facility, located near Napa County Airport in American Canyon.

    '“God takes care of people that price the wines fairly,” said Franzia. “A lot of the wineries that have overpriced their wine got hurt, but God doesn’t punish people that are fair.”'

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  18. SD - Wonder if Leon's still in this one?

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  19. Funny how we were talking about how August can be crappy and it is now looking to be one of the best months of the year.

    Not sure what that implies for the fall, but I guess it is a positive.

    This is by far the strongest bull market I've even invested in. Just seems that strength leads to strength.

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    1. It started off crappy as anticipated! This won't be the first time I've seen a n upside reversal this month.

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  20. ENPH pt. raised to $7500 on expected EPS of .01 in 3Q 2016.

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    1. As a rule of thumb, all of these stocks like that go to $20 Take PEIX for example.

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  21. OZM - Long, from less than $12, will add if possible lower price comes to me.

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  22. I'm mildly near sighted and thinking of getting Lasik. I can see perfectly up to about 5 feet and will lose that good vision with the procedure. The benifits for my longer vision are obvious. Not sure it's worth the trade off. Have any of you guys had it? Just get reading glasses??

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    1. A girl I am good friends with from college had it about 10 years ago and she said it is amazing.

      I meant to ask...how strong was that quake?

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    2. I had Lasik about 15 years ago as well and my long vision is still 20/20. My short vision is good still also, but it seems that many of my friends are getting into the reading glasses.

      Have you considered mono-vision where they correct your dominant eye for distance and your other eye for up close, so you can see both without glasses? I know a couple of guys who had that and it worked great, but another said it was fine for close and far, but then the inbetween got difficult. It sounds like you might be even able to just get the one eye lasered and leave the other alone (one person know did that successfully). Or try wearing one contact and see how it goes.

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    3. I vote for bifocals.

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    4. I have a terrible time seeing up close anymore, distance is still great. Too much time spent staring at this stupid LCD screen.

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    5. That quake was a 6.0, probably felt like riding a bowl of jelly. Liquifaction of the ground can create a new slant on life.

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  23. Sold 3 stocks today - MET, NM and EXE.TO

    I'm probably wrong, but I'm just feeling uneasy about the markets now and am leaving for vacation in a couple of days, so want to raise some cash and reduce risk some.

    I still own life insurers NWLI and AEG which have better upside than MET and MET is getting fairly valued, so you need business improvements to drive price increases
    NM - I sold my second half - it seems like th supply coming on board could be increasing and I think upside gets harder
    EXE.TO - was an arb play on the spinout of their US business and there could be more upside, but I made 23% in 6 months, so am good with that.

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    1. BB - I'm in the same exact boat as you. My cash levels are up and have been staying up for the past week or so. I see stuff that looks interesting like SB/BALT but I'm staying away for now.

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    2. I actually started buying a little UGAZ for a potential 1 week to 3 month trade at $15.5 but of course because it wasn't a big stake it went up immediately.

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  24. FIATY vehicles doing well in consumer reports - nice to see:
    https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/consumer-reports-says-ram-top-152615126.html

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  25. TAXI - Haven't heard much about the Iraqi Taxi Service taking a bite out of high prices by skirting the licensing issue lately.... 6,5,4,3,2,1...

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  26. BXE - Trying to decide if I should peel some off with the expectation of adding it back lower....

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    1. This is a seasonally weak period for energy, but tough to play the sell and buy back later. Plus, if the weather starts to cool quickly as some are suggesting, you could see energy futures jump dragging up stocks with them.

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    2. Right, and I'm remembering the natty low from last August as well as I can see it's still not reached that low so just 'cause the storage is full might be a poor excuse to dump at this time.

      Perhaps I'll stick with the original plan and just add if price comes down further.

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  27. UNG - What are the chances natty bottoms in Aug., like it did last year?

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  28. Copper - Okay guys, are those government sponsored electric vehicles gonna use copper motor windings or aluminum?

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    1. TOF - What was that graphite play, those mega batteries will have graphite electrodes, I think.

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  29. teamonfuegoAugust 26, 2014 at 9:47 AM
    I actually started buying a little UGAZ for a potential 1 week to 3 month trade at $15.5 but of course because it wasn't a big stake it went up immediately.

    I agree. Reopened UGAZ @ 15.5x.

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    1. Yes, but keep in mind TOF's picks are based on the premise they will go up! :)

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    2. As they all should be CP, as they all should be :)

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  30. OZM - Still a ton of volume, have you guys looked at this one with your magic analyzers? It's on the US1 list....

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  31. THAT's more like it. Added UGAZ at $15.08.

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    1. What would a trade in UGAZ be without an immediate gut check? Exhibit A why scaling in works best on these leveraged ETFs

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  32. I like this chart:
    http://stocktwits.com/message/26096112

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  33. From Senitmentrader, looks like odds are for a weak September:

    When $SPX was up >3% in August and at 12-month high, September was up only 1 out of 12 attempts.

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  34. (a) US indexes still climbing. Even I’m turning bullish, which probably means shorts are close to capitulating. Opening a small position in RYTPX at the close on that premise.
    (b) Reopened a position in UGAZ with an average basis of 15.4x. My willingness to hold a position is based on the pummeling NGas has taken over the past six months. There’s no other way to capture what can often be spectacular overnight moves.
    (c) Miners are up +2% today. A missed ‘opp’ for me, but I can’t say checking my swing yesterday was the wrong move. It wasn’t a low-risk entry, and I had no reason to take unnecessary risk.

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    1. Interesting, because I though hard today about buying SPY puts to fully hedge my portfolio.

      I didn't do it, but made a few sales instead. Puts are generally money losers, but the way I looked at it was my portfolio is up over 20% YTD, so for 2.3% I could have been hedged till November or 1.7% till October (expirations, not month-ends).

      I also went through all of my stocks several times again looking for sell candidates, and there maybe is a couple more, but I'm pretty happy holding most of them through any downturn we have.

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    2. Good stuff guys. I sold down half of my DGLY and am just sitting on that, UGAZ, ENSV now. I have very small positions in BALT / SB that I opened today although I will probably sell them, as well as ESTE. Sitting on 50% cash in all accounts. Tempted to take a flyer on TZA / SPXS knowing my lack of desire to do so is probably a feeling many others are going through.

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    3. I still think its best to just focus on individual stocks. I'm still finding plenty of stuff that looks interesting to me and whose charts are setting up. Had we paid attention to our natural skeptical "gut instincts" about the market since 2009 we wouldn't have ever made any money. Its often times best to ignore our grand theories about the world because they're usually wrong/too pessimistic.

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    4. (a) HSGFX (Hussman) closed at a new low today. YTD (through July 31) -2.43%
      (b) ATACX (Michael Gayed). YTD (through July 31) +0.45%.
      (c) Cody Willard. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/revolution-investing-closed-positions-2014-08-26

      Interesting stuff. All smart guys who pale in comparison to some of the amateurs here.

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    5. Re Hussman, wow, I'm surprised he still has any money in his funds.

      Re the markets and our gut instincts, you make a good point. When I look at my individual stocks, I am happy with them, but when I think about the market I'm concerned. Better to forget about the market and concentrate on stocks.

      But re the broad markets, I have been very positive on them for several years now with 90%+ equity exposure, but am starting to feel cautious. I had similar feelings back in 2005 or 2006 (can't remember exactly), and tried unsuccessfully to short the market. I think that just making some sales like I have been is a better approach.

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    6. DB is gaping up every day, so it's hard to not like that!

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  35. Only 2 hedge funds up over 20% so far this year with Ackman leading the show:

    http://www.valuewalk.com/2014/08/pershing-squarer-returns/

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  36. UGAZ off @ 15.89 on opening strength (+3%).

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  37. BOBE - "Bob Evans Q4 Sales Down 2%; Swings To Net Loss"

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  38. DB - That gap down is now filled, so I'm gonna hope some selling occurs here......

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    1. Yeah, only got my smallish position as never got down to $31. I'm up 6% in a couple weeks, so can't complain. Things seem to be getting dealt with in Europe on the banking side, so maybe I should add here instead of waiting?

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    2. My observation is the Germans are capitulating on the austerity demands, now their own economy has slowed as well. Crazy Europe, actually raised rates in 2012 under the previous ECB head, most likely at the request of Germany, LOL!

      Germans think the planet revolves around them.

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  39. BACML sights geopolitical risk but seems to me the tougher things get the more easy money central "bankers" provide?

    Interesting isn't it, the middle east is in a state of turmoil yet oil has come off? I think it's trapped in the US and refining to finished products is the only way it can leave shore?

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  40. One guess which mutual fund is getting called out in Motley Fool.

    The worst mutual fund to own over the last 10 years -- one that has underperformed all of its peers and trailed its benchmark by 150% -- still manages more than $1 billion.

    http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2014/08/27/finance-is-a-strange-industry.aspx

    As an aside, this Morgan Housel is doing some really good writing and definitely worth following on twitter.

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  41. I sold the UGAZ at $15.85 this morning and added back to my DGLY at $13.8, $12.9, $13.6. Looking for a day trade in the latter. May re-enter the UGAZ later.

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    1. My whole thinking on this DGLY has been two things:
      (1) volume like this doesn't just happen randomly. Typically on a pump and dump it fizzles out immediately. This has been going on for a week now. Perhaps it does just fizzle out but my suspicion is it leads to much higher prices.
      (2) the media hype surrounding the Ferguson shooting has created something of a tipping point in terms of how our police departments operate. There is a national movement going to get a mandate that all police officers wear body cameras. The market for this is pretty large...certainly large enough to support a 2nd tier player like DGLY with a market cap of about $40 Million.

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    2. My uneducated guess is it should begin to form a bull flag?

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    3. I got stopped out. Meant to post this earlier. Sold at $12.5 (below pre market lows). I should have read this closer:
      http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1342958/000149315214002745/form8k.htm

      convertible price is $6.10. That can't be a good thing for the sentiment of this stock...

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  42. Tempted to buy back into LEJU but I'll hold off. Looking at $13.4 still...

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    1. Although $15 is probably most likely.

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  43. I still think we would do well to be highly interested in India.

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  44. REDF - TOF, what's your take on this one, do they have a snowball's chance?

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  45. BTU - OMG, this one's green. Are utilities ordering winter coal?

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  46. I got rid of all long positions. I honestly don't have any basis for this move. I'm up to the highest point I've been this year on the back of a nearly 70% run since April. When its that easy to make money I've found its best to just step aside. The feeling of immortality quickly evaporates.

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    1. I'm holding a small chunk of ENSV still and ESTE but other than than I've moved entirely to cash. Most likely foolish to "panic" but I prefer panicking now while I'm up significantly.

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    2. The question is: a year from now do we look back and say "aha, oil / bonds / commodities were all trying to tell us something"? I used to look back at prior periods when the market topped out and see obvious correlations between certain inter market relationships and wonder why people never saw the obvious signs. But having traded through this bull market, its pretty obvious why people ignore a lot of signs. Higher prices can make us do that.

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  47. Replies
    1. 1st allotment off @ 15.6x. Amazingly volatile sector.

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    2. Nice trade. We know how this trades in relation to the overall market. It's not an extremely strong correlation, but it does seem that as the markets have short term tops natty gas tends to strengthen. That's what got me interested in checking it out yesterday. The weekly chart on nat gas looks like it could head up some...

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  48. My best guess is when a pullback comes it will be one or two weeks and lop off 8% or so. Kind of like Sept 1986:

    big run into July, then sharp pullback in July, then big rally in August, then 1 week 8 to 10% drop in beginning of Sept.

    Here's to getting some fat pitches in September.

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  49. Hope so!

    The other thing it makes me think is that is why these pullbacks have been so shallow - All that dry powder, someone will jump at a few percent pullback.

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  50. EXACTLY. That's why I still think it makes sense to stay long...and be aggressive on pullbacks. Shit I'm even convincing myself that staying in cash for very long is a bad idea.

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  51. Opening two positions going into the close:

    (a) RYJUX (Rydex Inverse Long Bond). Treasury yields down (ie, TLT up) another +0.86% today. That feels overdone.
    (b) RYWYX (Rydex 2x Inverse Emerging Markets). EEM continues to rally (and I like the sector longer term), but this week’s relentless gains are likely driven by shorts (rather than value-seeking longs).
    (c) Closing RYTPX end of day (mainly to hedge against opening RYWYX).

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  52. I’m turning bullish for the last 4 months of the year. The ‘V’-shaped rally since early August has sentiment implications that tell me a +8% gain from here is well within reach. There are simply too many non-believers out with their version of ‘This won’t end well’ comments/articles for me to believe the markets decline significantly. However, I can’t chase prices here. The best (and most realistic) scenario would be a -5% to -10% correction prior to a +15% rally that takes us to SPX 2150. If you’re in the buy-and-hold camp, you won’t be fazed by a -10% pullback.

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    1. 2nd - After I moved to cash I spent a good deal of time double checking old charts to see where we stand and what we might be able to expect. Being in cash gives you a little clarity to think things through better. I like referring to old charts to get a sense for what can happen because I think we're always conditioned to expect the crash. I too am becoming more bullish just from looking at older charts. These V-shaped rallies actually tend to lead to further gains. Essentially we traded sideways for the first 5 months of this year. We broke out and retested the old highs and have moved back up. This should lead to higher highs at first glance. So I agree with your SPX 2150 but I think odds are we get there without a pullback.

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    2. The only wild card in my opinion is whether or not traders panic over the Fed ending and the Alibaba IPO? Does this cause the much anticipated pullback?

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  53. Given the nice run retailers continue to have and the fact that PIR is everyone's favorite wicker wonder, I did manage to grab some shares right into the close at $16.14. It's stair stepping its way to closing the gap from mid June. That would give it another 12% higher. However, most of those tend to rally a good deal more after filling the gap (see BID / BBBY). So I'm thinking a target of $18.75 to $19 is reasonable. 18% higher.

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  54. Anyone buying WSM on the drop after hours?

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  55. I really think that the whole rates are down because of the Fed is wrong. If it were correct, why do other countries have so much lower rates, like Germany? I think that people will be pleasantly surprised at how interest rates react to standard supply demand dynamics once the Fed is out of the market.

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  56. rWarren Buffett, I'm not sure how is involved but he's contributing 3 billion dollars to the Burger King by out of Canada's coffee chain Tim Hortons. So he is investing some.

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  57. I still think the guy you want to watch is David Tepper. He had a great read on the market for the last few years and has a terrific long-term record. At the start of the year he called for a 20% increase this year. 10% earnings increase, and a 1 point increase in the PE multiple.

    but if you look at his actual holdings, he's gone from leveraged long at the start of the year to "not so frickin" long at midyear and now just sold off about another 20% of his holdings. His sells were mainly in market index products and their calls. But he did buy specific stocks. So I believe he is thinking the market is getting a bit tough, but you still want to be in stocks. I don't think he has any shorts.

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  58. Cp - sorry missed your message about redf. I don't know. I check it out from time to time. I think it has a small shot but my gut tells me it's a second rate internet site that will fade into oblivion. They were foolish for not raising capital in 2011 when they had a chance.

    Mmyt intrigues me though as far as very long term plays go

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  59. FIATY - Potential transmission warranty issues?

    "Well my 6 month old Jeep Cherokee with 3,000 miles on it bit the dust today. Wife went shopping with it and called and said when she started it to come home SERVICE TRANSMISSION message came on and it would not go into gear. After several attempts she said it went into gear and she limped it home, kept going out of gear at stop signs, she said she was going up a hill and it went out of gear and actually started to roll backwards. She made it home safe. Jeep has been flatbedded to the dealer, awaiting a report tomorrow."

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  60. "Geopolitical Tensions - Ukraine, Russian troops crossed the border"

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