(a) RYWBX closed down -0.66%. On top of the -0.59% decline last Friday, total 2-day loss on the position is -1.25%.
(b) RYMBX closed down -1.92%. Net loss (against Friday's +0.62% gain) over 2 days is -1.3%.
(c) I left out RSX earlier, which was stopped out around 24 for a -2% loss.
(d) Total 2-day portfolio performance is -0.4%. My benchmark recently has been ATACX, down -1.57% today or -0.9% over 2 days.
Not all losses are equal. My perspective on today's devastation in the commodities sector? It's a windup. The market is preparing to deliver (or not) the next fat pitch. A significant rally, more often than not, is preceded by a step backward. Similarly, significant gains are often preceded by minor losses.
The only commodity I feel somewhat confident about is nat gas only because it went thru a horrible bear market and is seemingly out of it. The others had massive bull markets during the 2000s. Perhaps all along oil is the reason we never got into a major bull mkt in equities?? I bet today's move in natty was a baby out with the bath water type move and the rest of the week is up and away. Then again I'm biased
ReplyDeleteBOBE - $42.75 - Out with slight loss, wasn't a well conceived idea.
ReplyDeleteBLL - Why aren't we riding this one?
ReplyDeleteI had a pretty lousy day in the market today so far. I am kicking myself for not loading back up on LEJU. Just had a feeling that was ready to go and I think it continues.
ReplyDeleteI got my butt whooped on UGAZ right from the open. I averaged down to $14.2 with a big position and will probably try to unload either by EOD or tomorrow before the report.
I got my ass kicked on BALT/NM/SB. I panic sold on all of those at varying prices...$5.7 for BALT, $8.98 for NM, and 8.20ish on SB. hopefully they don't mark bottoms. I think I took about a 3% hit to the port from those.
I've completely limited my exposure to the broad market as I'm getting quite nervous by the moves in speculative stocks like DGLY, ISNS, HGSH, JRJC, etc. I also think everyone is hiding in China stocks leading right into the Alibaba IPO. That seems very risky to me. I probably should be loading up on TZA.
It's alright. Let it go. Happens to me all the time.
DeleteIt's all good. A down 3.5% day at the end of the day. When I'm all in on a stock I feel very strongly about it's not uncommon to see 7% swings daily
DeleteThe $USD (finally) pulling back, albeit modestly (-0.15%). I'm not going to try calling a top, but I would expect at least a day or two of consolidation, if not outright weakness.
ReplyDelete(a) Reopening RYMBX (Rydex Commodities) at the close. Based on current pricing for DBC (+0.6%)/DJP (-0.19%), it may price at a slight premium to yesterday's close.
(b) Opened WEAT (wheat) @ 12.47 (about -2% from yesterday's close).
(c) Opened SOYB (soy) @ 12.25 (about -1.5% from yesterday's close).
(d) May elect to reopen RYPMX (Rydex Precious Metals) at the close. More downside needed for miners, IMO, but a ST bounce appears likely.
(e) Reopening UGAZ (3x NGas) @ 14.07.
(f) RSX. Up +5%, which is about a 7% difference from where I stopped out. It happens!
(g) US indexes gapped up at the open, and look to close flat. No opinion, and no interest in buying 'til a correction takes place.
MITK settled.
ReplyDeleteMITK, USO, RSX. Every single one was a windup pitch, with a step back just prior to delivery. Hope to see the same with UGAZ, miners, and all commodities.
DeleteBOBE - Well, someone was buying and apparently doesn't know what a limit order is. WTF?
ReplyDeleteI'm cash-ready for the fat pitch, bring it to me.
$WTIC - Trades like natty for crying out loud!
ReplyDeleteIf you think a college education is expensive then think again, about long term care:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/081914/passing-boomers-will-leave-big-economic-wake.asp?partner=YahooSA
REDF - Gonna follow India on higher?
ReplyDeleteYou should just buy it already! I'll follow I swear!
DeleteHey wouldn't it be funny if today's high was the peak. the Bull market that started at 666 in 2009 ended at 2009 in 2014.
ReplyDeleteThat wouldn't be funny at all !
Deletehttp://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/2014-09-03/trader-who-scored-100-million-payday-bets-shale-is-dud.html
ReplyDeleteAnother energy old timer questioning the viability of tracing. I've seen a few of these guys and either they are missing things or it just take a time. Basically the theory is fra cing takes a lot of capital and too much oil will drive prices down causing fracing to stop.
They've rediscovered the shit ton of oil left abandoned out in West Texas. This is MOG's CXO and the likes.
DeleteALDW is the refinery in Big Spring which sits on top of this clapped out oil field we were told was used up.
And, he's betting on "shale's failure" presumably to keep energy prices low but nothing about currency valuations which at the moment are moving against him.
DeleteA whole lot of investment and a lot of success has come from shale exploration, the US is no longer importing such vast quantity of energy from OPEC so that says something about the energy being produced and THAT HAS to be dollar positive as well, no?
Mario Draghi announced the following rate cuts this morning:
ReplyDeleteMain lending rate: down to 0.05% from 0.15%
Overnight bank deposits: down to negative 0.2% from negative 0.1%
Overnight loans: down to 0.3% from 0.4%
The response from commodities futures? Nada! Crude is off -0.64%, but gasoline is up +0.08%. Grains flat to slightly lower. Gold flat, miners somewhat higher. Copper +0.9%. The shoulder shrug can transition into a major selloff at anytime, of course. Until it does, I'm inclined to think traders had priced in even larger cuts (ie, selling the rumor) and are now relieved at the news.
The euro sunk, which is what Draghi wants, a lower euro. Thus, the $US probably lifted (I haven't looked yet) Okay, I looked and yes, the $US lifted considerably.
DeleteFracing will only get better and cheaper as with any new technology. But I agree that right now, roughly, $70 is about BE.
ReplyDeleteMan, if MITK loses 3.50 here... yikes, watch out.
ReplyDeleteJOY - "Joy's earnings profile is in a bottoming out process (book:bill >1x)."
ReplyDeleteISNS - Hmm, seems to have been noticed.
ReplyDeleteAdded to UGAZ @ 13.46.
ReplyDeleteI bailed on 90% of my UGAZ before the report at $14.2s and just added back a little at $13.5. Not marrying this sucker.
ReplyDeleteTook a long position in TZA
I'm now getting a little worried about the spike in the dollar. I think its worth a try in TZA. A spiking dollar is not good for corporate earnings. A slow grind higher is fine over time.
DeleteBXE - Obviously I'm going to have to begin trading this one to recover losses, it's not moving up as long as new cheaper wells in forgotten and abandoned as dry fields from back in the 70's come into production.
ReplyDeleteI read that West Tx. oil worker pay rivals that of silicon valley.
I'd get the hell out of direct energy plays...at least in the short run.
DeleteThen again it could all be priced in I suppose
DeleteThat's a huge oil field out there that was covered up and declared dry. Locals know the oil didn't run out, it was moth-balled.
DeleteIt's this oil that has offset $US downside pressure and is creating jobs for companies who convert this energy into products.
This spike in the dollar is kind of what I feared would play out 6 months ago just from the similar setup to Nat Gas pre spike to $6.50. If it follows suit you could see a spike to at least 90 (for /DX). That would be an additional 9% upside. If it happens and does so in a short time frame that would be a shock to the system. The Fed's commitment to follow through with tapering + the rest of the world setting up for additional stimulus was the fundamental reason for this spike I guess.
ReplyDeletePerhaps the best trade is just to stay short commodities but you need to be quick on that, hoping to get out on a once in a decade type spike. I think the best strategy could be to just wait for prices to come to us. I love EDC on a sharp pullback. Same with just about anything overseas.
When's the next down draft, about 2025 or so?
ReplyDeletehttp://peterlbrandt.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/7.30_ES_D.jpg
The reasons for the dollar is spiking are several, and not all that surprising. In fact, look at the story gold has been forcasting for a couple of years now.
ReplyDeleteSomeone is making out like a bandit, low rates are allowing corporate buybacks, bad asset fire sales are being taken advantage of by financial institutions (they were not made to eat their losses).
BX - These guys became major slum lords by buying bad assets from the recession and have/are hiring thousands of war vets to manage the properties, right? Surely Uncle Sam will continue taking a liking to this company and provide favorable tax benefit?
ReplyDeleteOur leaders don't want egg on their faces and will do "whatever it takes" to keep that from happening so knowing this we should position ourselves accordingly.
$US - Wow, quite a jump there. Does this mean silver might soon not be going to $150Trillion/oz as the world's reserve currency is switched from $US to Disney dollars instead?
ReplyDeleteAdam Parker: S&P goes to 3,000. Isn't this guy like the worst market caller if memory serves me right?
ReplyDeleteHis call isn't really that bold. Says in 5 years which works out to 8.5% annually. In other words he expects the market to average around what it averaged over the past 100 years.
Educated guesses are worth about the same as any wooden nickle.
DeleteBXE - Well, there's my downside target, not really much of a surprise actually. This is why I wanted to sell a few days back but now my only option is to add at some point and hope or take my loss and move on.
ReplyDeleteI think the recent gap up is closed, fellas. But the one from a couple years ago remains open.
DeleteAnything Overseas - Does GM count in this category?
ReplyDeleteAdam Parker is a joke.
ReplyDeleteHave you finished writing the next BXE Pump And Dump article yet? It's about time to hit the send button.
DeleteCP - What's the plan? Are you holding it?
DeleteENSV is kind of in that space...they got an upgrade by Maxim today with a PT of $5. I like that one a lot.
I know you like that one but I'm still trying to figure out what makes it so great. Yep, still trapped in BXE b/c it hasn't gone low enough to add nor high enough to sell (damn near coulda got out flat though).
DeleteClosing the entire UGAZ position @ 13.80 (flat).
ReplyDeleteAli Baba and the 40 thieves.
ReplyDeleteIs that available on NFLX?
DeleteMight have to check today in preparation for next week's IPO.
DeletePeeling off the TZA position. I was all in after clearing out the UGAZ position. Just recouped my losses from yesterday, those dirty thieves. As always, an event looms tomorrow for holders of TZA that makes it pretty much impossible to hold overnight.
ReplyDeleteI still think the Alibaba IPO along with a spiking dollar will create issues for the market in the short term. Crossing fingers we get a crash because I have a bucket list of stocks I want, some of which are:
LEJU
MMYT
PCRX
EDC
Can they bring the S&P down to 1,950?
DeleteNice job on the TZA. Maybe we did see a LT top yesterday, considering the level of indifference on behalf of our leaders seems to have increased of late.
DeleteI just love a good mystery, but I'm not clairvoyant:
"As always, an event looms tomorrow for holders of TZA that makes it pretty much impossible to hold overnight."
If it wasn't for the jobs report I'd probably hold TZA. However, I'm also aware of the fact that TZA almost NEVER gaps down and goes. Of course it's been a raging bull market but go look back closely on the charts. You can probably count on your hand the number of times it gapped down the next day and didn't fill that gap. Thus, take profits and hope for a better entry tomorrow seems to be the best strategy with this beast.
DeleteJoan Rivers top?
ReplyDeleteThe opening strength in miners has now transitioned into a selloff going into the close (GDX -2.8%). Commodities (using DBC as a proxy) are doing better, currently off -0.42%. The $USD is up >1%, which IMO poses risks for all markets going forward. With the exception of HDGE, I plan to close all positions. I’ll start with the good news, and end with the bad!
ReplyDelete(a) UGAZ. I doubled down @ 13.46 at breakfast with Jack Flash, and closing the entire position here @ 13.80 (initial entry was @ 14.07). A minor gain on the trade.
(b) WEAT off @ 12.16 for a -2.5% loss. This was a small position.
(c) SOYB off @ 21 for a -1.2% loss. This was an even smaller position.
(d) RYMBX (Rydex Commodities) off at the close for what looks to be a -0.42% loss. I sized up for this trade with a 25% position, so the portfolio will take take a -0.1% hit.
(e) RYPMX (Rydex Precious Metals) off at the close for likely a -3% loss. I sized up (25%) for this trade as well, which will slice 0.08% off my YTD gains!
I’ll take a -1% hit for the day. I don’t mind. Why not? I view losses from the following perspective:
(a) I am not entitled to gains only, with no losses.
(b) Losses are part of the game.
(c) Given that losses are inevitable, I will minimize their impact by taking each hit immediately.
(d) In an up-trending market, I’ll give a position more time to play out. In a down-trending market (how can I characterize commodities right now as up-trending?), I will take the hit and second-guess myself later.
Homo sapiens are wired to deny the possibility of losses. That’s the emotional trap that markets lure us into. We dislike losses. The markets take advantage of our inability to accept small losses to lead us into devastating losses- the kind where we’ll (finally) get out at any price. I don’t want to be in that position. Sure, miners may bounce tomorrow. What if instead they plummet further (we’ve all seen ‘oversold’ become ‘more oversold’)? A further spike in the $USD + panicked traders can easily cause that to happen. I have no edge going into Friday, and I’m not smart enough to game the markets without an edge. I’ll sit in cash (and a little HDGE) and wait for the next pitch.
(Why did I size up for the Rydex trades? In retrospect, it was a bad decision. I’m OK with it.)
I meant to say a hit of -0.8% (and not -0.08%) on the miners!
Delete"Homo sapiens are wired to deny the possibility of losses. That’s the emotional trap that markets lure us into. We dislike losses. The markets take advantage of our inability to accept small losses to lead us into devastating losses- the kind where we’ll (finally) get out at any price. "
DeleteThis is something I've never had an issue with. I'm good at taking losses...its the gains that can be elusive!
That's why you've been successful!
DeleteIt's like a business man. Your gonna have those a-hole customers that you know you will lose money on the moment you talk to them. Just don't take it personal and move on.
DeleteThe thing that has always pissed me off the most is taking gains too quickly. I almost never hold on to something long enough. Then again, it helps you avoid the big hits. I have a buddy that bought MITK when we did at $5 and I advised him repeatedly to sell at $10, $8, $6,...you know the drill. He still has it.
DeleteI must be homophobic or something.
DeleteIt is still a bull market and top calling has cost people more money the last few years than anything else I'd bet.
ReplyDeleteI'm sure buy and hold has done well also and probably continues for a few more years.
Like Jesse Livermore said, it's the sitting that's the hard part, but its where the big money is made.
I agree completely but you can also get aggressive / cautious depending throughout bull cycles
DeleteNanosphere (NSPH -14.3%) hires Jefferies LLC as its financial advisor to help it evaluate and develop a full range of strategic alternatives.
ReplyDeleteShares closed today at $0.6545 on almost a 3x surge in volume. The company's market cap is $50M and its quick assets totaled $21.8M at the end of Q2.
I'm only doing this because I've sat and watched this rip higher and because the comments from PVH were very positive for JCP but I bought some shares after hours at 11.15/11.17. It's a small position so ideally is like to hold for a while.
ReplyDeleteI'm hoping my theory that the baba ipo has negative effect on the china / foreign internet space even if it's only temporary as I'm hoping to buy panic in leju and mmyt for re-entries on longer holds. I did buy a tiny amount of leju today but didn't get filled on much as I was trying too low
ReplyDelete(a) RYPMX/ RYMBX closed as expected, and delivered a -0.93% hit. Why not round up? ATACX closed down -1.03%! In some circles (not mine) that's referred to as 'successful' out-performance.
ReplyDelete(b) Defense wins games. That's been shown to be true in sports. It's even more axiomatic in trading.
(c) Loss aversion is a handicap. Trading becomes much easier once we learn to embrace (small) losses as 'wins.' That's no joke. We all experience setbacks in life. If you have learned to minimize their impact, you've succeeded. All drivers will encounter hazardous conditions. The ones able to avoid a major collision and escape with a fender bender have succeeded. All traders will experience losses. (Trading systems that rarely lose? They don't help me. Trading [in my case, anyway] involves frequent losses, so I fail to understand why so few systems teach 'vehicle handling' skills.)
Former governor found guilty of corruption (sold the citizens down the road for his own personal gain), details at 11:00
ReplyDeleteGoldman sees a strong finish to the year sue to fund underperformance YTD which will drive market chasing.
ReplyDeleteDoes make a lot of sense to me.
http://m.us.wsj.com/articles/BL-MBB-26430?mod=article_prev&ref=/blogs/moneybeat
"Since 1991, there have been nine years in which fewer than 40% of large-cap fund managers outperformed the S&P 500 by the end of the third quarter, according to Goldman. In those instances, the S&P 500 then rallied by 2% more in those fourth quarters than other years when more funds were outperforming the market."
DeleteInteresting...I always thought that was some stupid Wall St saying but there are numbers to back it up. How's France?
Le patatine fritte y Royale with cheese? :)
DeleteWe were in Paris for 3 days and have been down in South France near Nice in a town called Beaulieu Sur Mer (think of the movie Dirty Rotten Scoundrels).
DeleteBeautiful weather and prices for food aren't too bad, especially with the Euro coming down. But did pay $60 today for 2 lounger beds on the beach, so not cheap! The shopping is expensive. I think part of the tough part for their economy is you have all these small shops with a Person sitting waiting to sell you a shirt for $75, but I can get pretty much the same at TJ Maxx back home for $14, so they just don't have the Economy of scale. Plus the trains stop running on the coastal track from 11:30 - 12:30 so the staff can have lunch (can you imagine that in North America?), so I get the impressions unions are pretty strong here.
They also have so much good stuff for tourism, beautiful coastal walking trails, quaint old markets, cafes every street, history everywhere you turn and loads of old money. The harbour across from out hotel had at least 30 boats over $10 million.
I own 5 Euro syocks , ING,AEG, IBDRY, DB, FLY and I can tell you after this that France is a nice place to visit, but I think thy have a lot of work to do to make it a good place to invest.
Oh, and lots of beautiful, styling women. Both on the beach and in the cities. Walking around Monte Carlo it wasnt the castles and things that were the most impreelssive looking!
DeleteRemember, its very rare for TZA to gap higher and stay higher. It's currently bidding above yesterday's close.
ReplyDeleteSo don't buy it now! Employment report was weaker than expected?
DeleteBLMN - Did you guys notice this one keeps melting higher?
ReplyDeleteThankfully!
DeleteOpened QID @ 44 pre-market, and unloaded it @ 44.39. It went on to 44.55, but now @ 44.15.
ReplyDeleteJust trying to get my mojo back.
UGAZ @ 13.74.
ReplyDeleteOMG, think about the POS stocks we look at...NSPH, MITK, AUMN, NES...unreal.
ReplyDeleteYou forgot fmd redf arr and a host of others!
DeleteOpening bearish funds at the 1030 window.
ReplyDelete
ReplyDeleteGolden Minerals (AUMN -26.1%) plunges as it prices a public offering of up to 3.69M units at $0.86 each.
Each unit is comprised of one share of its common stock and a five-year warrant to acquire a half-share at an exercise price of $1.21/share.
AUMN plans to use the proceeds toward exploration expenditures primarily related to properties in Mexico, and for other working capital requirements and general corporate purposes.
I hope David got out of this one with at least some capital intact.
DeleteI'm buying back into the shippers. Weighted heavier in nm and sb but have some balt too. I still really like this trade. The emerging market strength should feed into this sector and you have a boom in iron ore shipments out of Brazil along with a tight supply which should send capesize rates dramatically higher...I hope
ReplyDeleteWait a minute! WTF is wrong with ARR!?
ReplyDeleteGMO, MCP, YRCW, CADC, REE.....
I tried to get in the shippers this am but couldn't pay up.
OCLS!
DeleteMark - I'm actually thinking the shippers may need a move lower first.
DeleteIt's tough because you want to time the bottom right given how volatile they can be...just seems like they're setting up for a big rally but most likely not until after they test people's patience one last time. So do you wait for the potential for 10% lower, knowing odds are decent they could be 100% higher in a year or do you just buy a bit over time? I compare them to X/AKS which languished for 7 months or so then broke out. Same with NOK. It was held in check for about 7 months last year before doubling.
DeleteEPI - Just keeps on going, and now what about FLWS, seems something changed?
DeleteTC - I reiterate, this company can be whatever you want it to be.
ReplyDeleteTGIBF !!!! Boy, are my arms tired.....
ReplyDeleteCP - I bought your REDF today. Long at $2.48 avg. Small position but I figure what the hell this sucker can really fly. I also bought a small stake in MMYT. I'd really like to have some skin in the Indian internet game as I think they will all have moves like the China internet plays at some point over the next few years. MMYT is a much larger company with a huge market share.
ReplyDeleteAlso bought back into PCRX at $101.7 today. I am not a huge fan of buying all the way up here but everything I read about this drug on those doctor message boards makes me think this will have to be bought out.
ReplyDeleteI bought a small position in NBG today. I really have no idea how the hell to read their financials to fully understand what is going on. But I figure with the exceptionally easy stance the ECB is taking it should have a positive impact on them along with pretty much every other bank. I like the technical setup as well. I'm pissed I missed out on the IRE entry because I watched it forever but didn't act on it. This is the ugly stepchild of them I guess. DB is one I almost bought too.
ReplyDeletePerhaps Germany is just pretending to require austerity....
DeleteNote on redf
ReplyDelete"This past quarter saw the execution of Rediff.com's strategy: to retain and grow its approximately 15 million engaged users through a variety of digital offerings and then earn revenue from digital services provided to these users and to businesses. The Company's revenue stream, which used to be dominated by advertising, is gradually shifting away from advertising and is increasingly driven by revenues from its ecommerce marketplace and subscription revenues from the enterprise email and collaboration services.
Overall revenue of $4.08 million for the 2014 first quarter is about the same as the comparable quarter last year (up 6% in Rupee terms). This number masks a 49% growth (58% in Rupee terms) in fee based income which grew to US$1.76 million offsetting a decline of 26% (21% in Rupee terms) in advertising revenue to US$1.62 million.
The progress that Rediff.com is making towards finding a profitable, high growth niche in the booming Indian online shopping market is evident in the Company's 27% Take Rate (fees earned as a percentage of value of products transacted), its healthy +14% product margin, and a customer return rate as low as 11%. Additionally, approximately 23% of the transactions on the Company's marketplace were done through mobile phones, a figure which continues to grow as mobile devices become more widespread throughout India and the broadband infrastructure continues to improve.
"India's online shopping industry is extremely active now with multibillion dollar investments being made by companies such as Amazon building large warehouses, holding stock and making deliveries using large numbers of company employees. In this environment we are pursuing a strategy of being a digital intermediary and using data science to enable small merchants to fulfill orders and be competitive. We hope to build a profitable and high growth niche in this industry. You can see signs of a new Rediff emerging," said Ajit Balakrishnan, Chairman and CEO, Rediff.com India Ltd.
One year ago NSPH raised $30M @ 1.75/share.
ReplyDelete