OPEC leaves output unchanged, and oil traders respond by selling. Last quote was under 70, or -7%. I'm expecting the energy sector to sell off hard on Friday, and bracing for -7-10% (maybe worse) moves in my positions. It's not the news, but the reaction to the news that matters. Position sizing will hopefully limit the damage to about -1.5% of the portfolio, but I sense that the direction of maximum pain will be a brutal gap down- and there's no telling what may unfold when traders panic.
The collapse in crude is 'a big deal.' I believe it signals the beginning of a secular decline in oil prices. The question is whether it portends something more ominous. A decline in oil prices has marked the beginning of recessions, a 'tell' in the form of weaker global demand and deflation.
The currency markets are moving, with large percentage declines (against the $USD) in the Euro, the Pound, and the Australian and Canadian dollars. Spot silver is off -2%, spot gold -0.73%. The Toronto Exchange closed down -0.77%. Australia's All Ordinaries has opened off -1.2%. US futures are not affected (the DJIA currently +3), as lower oil prices are expected to benefit the US economy.
Market movements are a dance. Let's find out how Asian and European markets react to oil prices.