A few thoughts re Monday's open.
(a) OPEC has dealt Russia a blow far more serious than anything delivered by Western sanctions. How will Putin respond? It's not like him to turn the other cheek.
(b) One danger of trading counter-trend is the possibility that overbought or oversold conditions often exceed what's conceivable. How much lower can foreign currencies (in particular, the ruble) sell off against the dollar (-30% YTD)? Selling begets more selling. Ironically, Japan's Shinzo Abe would probably celebrate a -30% drop in the Yen as 'touchdown!'
(c) Speaking of oversold, it's possible that a secular decline in oil and gas stocks is just getting started.
(d) Miners? This sector has perfected the art of snatching defeat out of the jaws of victory (a close second would have to be NGas).
The portfolio suffered a -1.4% hit on oil. Had I decided to hold positions in emerging markets and miners through today's close, the damage would have been twice as bad (RYPMX closed off -8.11%, or -9.4% from my exit basis; RYWVX closed off -4.1%, or -4.4% from my exit basis; RYMBX closed off -5.49%! [completely unexpected], or -6.6% from my exit basis). I have no actionable 'take' re Monday apart from an expectation of 'volatility.' My only positions are cash and a small position in HDGE.