Wednesday, December 10, 2014

12/10/14 Re-BRIC'd

Reopened all positions at today's close: RSX, EWZ, RYWVX. Added a position in CAF as well. Playing the probability of short-term capitulation in the shares of BRIC companies. A contrarian entry based purely on negative sentiment, with a time frame of 1-2 trading days.

153 comments:

  1. Apologies for the lack of participation since last Friday. I was away at a conference, and composing messages on an iPhone didn't work well. Now back home and hopefully back to 'work.'

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  2. Welcome home, I think Mark's coming over to your place so leave the porch light on! :)

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    1. I saw that! For him I might lower the nightly rate by 5%.

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    2. Yeah, not sure how easily you can tell him from a moth so go easy till your eyes can focus, LOl... :)

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  3. ITW - Here's one that isn't actually crashing so not much of a roller coaster ride careening downward that somes with owning an absolute turd like I've grown accustom to although it has come off a little.

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  4. FCAU - Dang man, 46M shares traded???!??!??? Sumthin not right about this?

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    1. I forgot about that gap up from $9.75 or so, that probably has to be taken care of before the chart can be fully exercised of demons don't you think?

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    2. I would say tof dodged a bullet on that one.

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    3. 2nd - Not quite man. I took a 5% beating on that today. I am holding about 55-60% going into tomorrow with the intention to fully reload. I know a lot of people cry manipulation and what not and I usually think it's a joke to cry that but what the f*** man? Granted it could just be a function of rising too far too fast, but there's a convertible bond offering that is being offered where the two largest existing shareholders plan on participating and where its in all of their best interest to have a lower conversion price and magically 40 times the normal daily volume goes through and the stock drops like 15% over a 2 day period? Give me a break.

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    4. Sorry to hear that. For some reason I thought you unloaded FACU at 13+ and moved the money into Z.

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    5. No worries. I've taken a few beatings myself this week. There's really nothing I can do other than pick myself up and wait for the next pitch.

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    6. I did sell at $13+ in anticipation of this convertible but then I tried twice on lower entries only to give up about 10% from last Friday. I contemplated cashing in for a little while last week given I hit new highs for my port but you know how that works. Part of the game. Live to die another day.

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  5. FMD - The polar opposite of FCAU at the moment is FMD, join 'em if you can't beat 'em?

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  6. ALSK - Needs to fill that gap down from March?
    SGEN - Big insider buying, I think $22m plus more, qualifies as confidence don't you?

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  7. Looks like the convertible and share offering for FCAU got priced out:
    http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/fca-prices-offering-of-common-shares-and-offering-of-mandatory-convertible-securities-300008340.html

    It's a bit tricky but my best guess looks like the convertible is going to be priced at a range of $11 and $12.93. That's using a notional amount of $100 divided by between 9.0909 shares per mandatory convertible security and 7.7369 per. The dilution factor is 12 to 14% for the convertible and the share offering will boost shares by about 53 million (its for 87 million but only 53 million that were the shares that were forfeited by existing shareholders during the Fiat Chrysler merger will be replaced in the offering) or another 3.3%. So combined the dilution factor is 15 to 17% which jives with the move down of 16.7% from the $13.76 high. So maybe not manipulation after all.

    Having said that, short term traders focus on dilution whereas long term investors focus on the benefit of dilution...namely, reduction of debt and corresponding increase in EPS. Ultimately, it could be a wash and present people with a better re-entry. I'm hoping we get a drop in the morning to add more shares but my guess is we saw the majority of the selling.

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    1. I wouldn't be surprised to see 1 or 2 more down days, then the uptrend resume. That seems to be the way these things work. Mid-range of bid/ask premarter is $11.30, down another $0.17.

      The thing that is odd is the convertible and additional shares have been know about for weeks. You think this would have been priced into the stock before yesterday. There may be something to your game playing to get lower prices.

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    2. I suspect we get a whoosh down to $11.05 or so to test the secondary pricing and then it reverses. Here's a note I came across...can't figure out where he got the 19% dilution factor. I think maybe he's assuming all of the secondary offering is increasing the outstanding shares. But it's my understanding that a good chunk of the secondary won't be increasing shares.

      "1003 GMT Fiat Chrysler Automobiles' (FCA.MI) share sale and mandatory convertible bond, which were priced late yesterday in New York , will dilute the stock of the Italian-American car maker by 19%-21%, according to Evercore ISI. The dilution, which will depend on the rate at which the bond is converted into shares, is higher than the 16% Evercore had been expecting. The increased dilution more than offsets the positive for FCA of the slightly higher-than-expected price put on the share sale ( $11 apiece). Evercore confirms its sell rating and EUR7.50 target price. FCA is down 7.3% at EUR9.09 in Milan . On Wednesday it closed 9.5% lower in New York at $11.47 ."

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    3. I ended up reloading my shares. There's risk it goes down more in the short term and I'm willing to take that risk but even at a $20 Billion valuation and assuming a low multiple on Ferrari that gives it a $7 or $8 Billion valuation, you're left with a $12 Billion market cap for a company that should be doing $3 Billion or so in net income in the next year or two. I think that's very reasonable and one of the few really cheap stocks I can find.

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    4. There's a $375 million overallotment - maybe that is included as they usually are taken.

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    5. Yeah maybe that's what he's getting. But he still neglect to mention the upside to the business from all of this money. They can reduce interest expense or expand quicker. It's not done in a vacuum.

      here's a good take on it that I agree with:
      http://microfundy.tumblr.com/post/104922047110/why-fiat-should-bounce-back-after-this-weeks

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    6. Makes sense.

      In thinking about this a bit more, if I was a large holder of FCAU and got the option to buy bonds at almost 8% with a mandatory covert at $11.00 in 2 years, I'd sell all the FCAU I could and replace it with bonds. There is no dividend on the stock, so why not get the extra dividend plus the full upside of the stock price. So that also could have been driving the price down as stockholders got their bond allocations.

      In fact, if I can find the bonds to buy, I will almost certainly make that swap today on the markets.

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    7. Good idea BB. Let us know if you find those bonds!

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    8. No wonder then why the selling is taking place. Agree this change will take some time to equalize, maybe it happens in a few days, no idea, but seems reasonable.

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  8. Here's a good report looking at the supply issues of oil and makes a good argument why $60 oil isn't here to stay:

    http://econbrowser.com/archives/2014/11/a-glut-of-oil

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  9. A lot of the energy stocks I follow are right around up trend lines from the 2009 and 2012 bottoms, so could be a logical place for at least a bounce if not a longer term bottom.

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  10. Retirement opportunity: RUSL

    Anyone think Russia bounces soon? If so, the 3x ETF might represent a good (but high risk) opportunity.

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  11. BB - I was under the impression that the convertible was not open to the public. Could be wrong

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    1. What exactly would they be called?

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    2. All I currently see listed at my broker are options.

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  12. Emerging Markets ex-China are crashing. Opening a position in GREK purely on the odds that I'm buying panic.

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  13. Replies
    1. Yeah, they've been kicking butt. I never heard of them before you pointed it out.

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    2. Yeah man. I always find it hard to justify the valuation of companies like that which is why they go higher I guess.

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  14. This is probably too simple on FCAU but consider this:

    Convertible is $2.5 Billion
    Exor (largest shareholder) is buying $886 Million of that. That leaves $1.614 Billion for everyone else. Between yesterday and today 117 Million shares have trade. If I assume the avg price is $11.5 then $1.334 Billion worth of volume has gone through. Presumably a large chunk of the convertible will be hedged out by people shorting the stock. I don't know what that amount is but if its 80% then that's $1.29 Billion. So you could make the argument that the pressure on the stock is just about done. I wouldn't be surprised to see one last attempt to push this lower then a big snap back.

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  15. "In thinking about this a bit more, if I was a large holder of FCAU and got the option to buy bonds at almost 8% with a mandatory covert at $11.00 in 2 years, I'd sell all the FCAU I could and replace it with bonds. There is no dividend on the stock, so why not get the extra dividend plus the full upside of the stock price. So that also could have been driving the price down as stockholders got their bond allocations."

    By the way, BB, the mandatory convert is between $11 and $12.93 based on my take from last night. So if its $12.93 then it's not just a straight shot no brainer...I'd be shocked if they set it up like that because no one would want to own the equity outright. I believe the company or an analyst mentioned there would be a 17.5% to 22.5% premium on the shares before this went down and as it happens $12.93 is 17.5% above $11.

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  16. Well, I've reached my limit of disgust with this market again, so look for a nice pop to new highs. Solar is pretty beat up, so keep an eye on that I suppose.
    FCAU - I'd planned on adding if it does move down more but now I'm not so sure I can stomach any additional BS at this point. I need some rest, my head's spinning 90mph

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  17. I've been doing some reading on Buffett and started digging into the AMEX investment he made back in the 1960's. Not sure if you guys know the history behind this but he made a boatload on this investment and it really catapulted his status into the world's best investor. Back in 1963, there was this big salad oil scandal that Amex helped facilitate through loans. You can google it to read about it. The stock took a nosedive on the scandal, dropping about 45% or so. At the time, AMEX was a steady fast growing company, having tripled revenues over the prior 10 years. The valuation of the company was around $200 Million after the salad oil scandal. Buffett took a huge stake in the company and it ended up going up about 45% annually over the next 8 years (up about 20-fold). It marked his status as a value investor that jumps into panic driven situations.

    Here's a good writeup on the valuation of Amex at the time:
    https://hurricanecapital.wordpress.com/2014/03/22/american-express-the-salad-oil-scandal/
    https://hurricanecapital.wordpress.com/2014/04/10/valuation-of-amex-in-1964/
    https://hurricanecapital.wordpress.com/2014/04/30/valuation-of-amex-in-1964-price-vs-value-part-3/

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  18. New IPO today:

    MOMO

    Need I say anymore?

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    1. Off to a great start. No concerns, I can already hear giant sucking sounds.

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  19. DIdn't realize the FCAU convert bonds were non-tradeable. They almost always are up here in Canada.

    Oh well, one of the first things the traders at TD told me was there is no free money in investing and it always gets arbitraged away, but I keep trying to find it.

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  20. FCAU - Only have owned this one a few days and already down 15%..... another nice con job! :)

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    1. just think about how glorious it will be when this shit hits $20

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    2. Sounds too good to be true, wouldn't be surprised to see radio shack hit $20 1st.... That's how life works.

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    3. Seems like Ferrari should be worth at least as much as GPRO though, or perhaps GPRO is worth 1/8 of Ferrari I should say. Not sure if they're both overpriced but apparently that's the current belief, definitely nothing to do with smart money throwing their weight around.

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  21. NLY - Mark, looks like I may have sold my only winner.

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  22. MS/USB - These have been experiencing volume too. Just not the downside price action (yet).

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  23. Seems like when the middle class shuts down, commodities are liable to go into a sort of tailspin.

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  24. XLV - Here's an example of legislated success. Banking is another example.

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  25. Still thinking about oil. Not sure what to do yet - buy into this weakness or get rid of them all or just wait and hold - probably will wait and hold for now, but this is a key decision point for 2015 returns:

    1. Bull case - all new oil is high cost, so we need high priced oil to develop new fields. Otherwise, production naturally declines and will get below demand and drive price up.

    2. The high cost of commodities has incented less oil usage and the development of new technologies which are driving the price of oil down like happens with all commodities over time.

    3. Many countries have become overreliant on oil because of the ongoing high prices and need the oil incomes. As oil prices fall, they cannot afford to cut production and may even increase production to meet revenue requirements, even though this hurts the overall market.

    4. Most of the commodity growth of the last 12 years was based on China increasing demand. Now that China has built out a lot of its infrastructure, you see prices in things like Iron Ore collapsing back to low prices. Perhaps the same is now happening with oil. It is different in that Iron Ore is used for true infrastructure where oil is used for ongoing economic activity, so demand won't fall, but perhaps that incremental demand slows.

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    1. I think the correct answer to oil will be the overwhelming investment thesis for 2015. WAY overwhelming. I'm trying to figure out a way to check in with MOG, but don't want to be rude like Ichan.

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    2. It seems the overwhelming investment thesises (higher rates, Europe over US) didn't work that well. I wonder if oil being a popular thesis is a positive or negative?

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  26. Portable gas to liquids refineries that can be easily transported and set up on site until the gas pocket has been depleted then disassembled and transported elsewhere.

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  27. U.S. Coast Guard responding to oil spill in New Jersey: report http://reut.rs/1x7IP2b

    That should put a floor under oil!!

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    1. It probably means there's so much oil it's being poured down drains and into rivers just to get rid of it.

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  28. I do miss Ryan Detrick but this guy (http://jlfmi.tumblr.com/ has done a couple of studies which show the high vix in December is followed by a positive rest of the month 52 of 52 times and the 90% down day is followed by an up December 13 of 14 times.

    Really just saying if we get a hard selloff in December, it is often a blow-off bottom, not the continuation of a trend. And we should now be up from yesterday at the end of the year.

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  29. MTW - May have bottomed but hard to believe.
    RBA - I still like this one b/c I believe heavy equipment is heading for the auction block as oil production comes to a halt. Looks like a knockout in progress.

    I realize you guys are confident with your positions but I'm looking for something that should benefit from the events of the past 6 months, especially if they continue to persist.

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  30. I dunno, maybe there's just too much of everything and demand isn't keeping pace b/c prices are too high.. Name something that's in shortage, only water right?

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    1. WEll, Ferraris for one! Plus the CEO of Air Transat said there's not enough Dominican hotels. in general, hotels are in shortage with room bookings percentage at one of the highest levels ever. Steaks still seem in short supply, judging by the prices. Iphone 6's too. On the people side, there's shortages in many trades, and the STEC skills. In general, he capitalist economy does a good job of matching supply and demand though.

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  31. Replies
    1. I saw a note that one of Canada's pension funds owns a couple million shares of PAL, lol, not sure about that either.

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  32. Banks should do well with low energy prices, I guess?

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  33. TLM - Up nicely in premarket, must be some news?

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  34. MXC - This one's still over $6
    FRO - Up 18%

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  35. EIA cuts energy demand forecast. So that's probably due to global economic expansion, right?

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  36. Or, maybe it means most vehicle sales will not be econoboxes driven 15,000 miles/yr but instead Ferrari's driven maybe 1,000 miles/yr?

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  37. FRO- Damn, that's a 100% move off the bottom.

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    1. Seems like all the turds make a 100% move at some point.

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  38. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  39. Replies
    1. Good going! You're one of the few that can say that these days.

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    2. Mark is pretty good at this stuff, don't let him fool you.

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  40. ALDW - This one's calling me, it pays a dividend.

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    1. One thing to remember about refineries is it takes an act of God to construct one due to the environmental impact it creates. For this particular refinery and I'd bet most, the earth around and under it is soaked in oil due to leaking pipes over the decades.

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  41. BXE - Currently green, the sell signal. Than buy back on tomorrow's $0.20 drop

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  42. TLM - My broker has a $5 price on this so no telling what it's really worth.

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  43. Trees down in Oakland? Mark, let me know if you need a chainsaw, I probably have a dozen of them all ready to go.

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  44. LGCY - Still, my broker hasn't updated (lower) their price objective. Can I assume this analyst must be busy out shopping for Ferrari's?

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  45. FCAU - Going to $8's, you watch and see.

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    1. Dang you're a doom and gloomer!

      http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/FCA/charts?symb=IT%3AFCA&countrycode=IT&time=12&startdate=1%2F4%2F2000&enddate=11%2F4%2F2014&freq=1&compidx=none&compind=none&comptemptext=Enter+Symbol%28s%29&comp=none&uf=7168&ma=1&maval=50&lf=1&lf2=4&lf3=0&type=2&size=2&style=1013

      Does that look like a breakout then retest of prior highs?

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    2. It's really easy to be a doom and gloomer when your port gets smashed by oil like mine has.

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    3. I hear ya man. It's tough to keep a positive outlook when things aren't going well. Probably the hardest part about this game.

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  46. Picked up FCAU, AA, ADT, APA, and BA in my in laws accounts this morning. I managed to cash them out of FCAU at $13.5 and bought a little back at $12.2 and put a bunch more in today at around $11.25 and lowered their basis by almost $2. I wish I followed the same in my own account - I managed to reduce it by about $0.70 to $10.13 now. If I didn't have my money in tax free accounts I wouldn't actively trade this position as much.

    I've been developing a strategy that I'm still testing for S&P 500 stocks that looks like it fairly consistently outperforms the market...I'm still backtesting it to confirm but it does require active management. I've been applying this to 2 of my in laws accounts for the past 6 months and they are up about 30% this year so the initial results look promising.

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    1. S&P 500 stocks, in their entirety, consist of the best run 500 companies in the US. Given that assumption, I'm putting together a strategy that just looks for low risk entries and exits on those stocks. The goal isn't to make 50% a year, but rather to outperform the market by 5 to 10%, and given the high quality nature of stocks in the S&P, risk should be significantly lower. I'll let you guys know how it performs. The hard part is figuring out how to manage the number of positions held at any one time to enhance performance.

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    2. Interesting TOF, so i follow a model which invests in the 20 strongest SP 500 names, this year it's up 40% vs say 12% for SP.

      Since it looks to be in the strongest 20, are your looking to do the same or do you prefer the beaten down turning up concept in the approach your doing?

      Being in the strongest will be a clear winner in strong trending market's, just not sure when/if the mkt chances phases if it performance will continue to shine. I think it to be a good strategy.

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  47. YPF - Still headed off the cliff, Soros' pump and dump.

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  48. Some interesting stats on oil dependency:
    http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=17231

    oil & nat gas exports accounted for 68% of russias revs in 2013.
    oil exports accounts for 50% of venezuela GDP and 95% of exports

    I'm assuming we should see a default by Venezuela if this keeps up.

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  49. The call for 2,014 S&P in 2014 is looking very good!

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    1. LOL, ya think so? Good thing all the bad news is priced in now!

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    2. no idea man. i think that dude from morgan stanley, mark's BFF, has that as his year end target.

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  50. TOF,

    Cara actually had an interesting strategy with his pick the top 100 stocks, then buy with RSI under 30 and sell over 70. This misses the strong trending stocks like AAPL, but mkaes sense in a choppy market especially.

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    1. Mine is somewhat similar to that. I am using a couple of other signals.

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    2. Speaking of the RSI, does anyone here have the link to the CARA RSI tool, I cannot find it.

      TIA

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    3. I could never get Cara's tool to match up with anything else for some reason, and most of the time it wasn't updating. Maybe he fixed it, dunno, I think it was a marketing tool?

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  51. CP, often the best time to buy is when it feels the worst. If you feel good about a buy, it's could be too late.

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    1. True, so funny that a 10% gain on something is considered great while at the same time it's not unusual to experience a 70% move.

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  52. JONE - Alright then, tell me that's the double bottom.

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  53. DB - Needs to close better than $31.42, still have my responsibly small position.

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  54. If you guys are looking to do really short term trades, check out this seasonality:
    http://ibankcoin.com/option_addict/files/2014/12/alliwantforchristmasisayolo.png

    The 15th trading day would be next Friday, December 19th.

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  55. Water, water everywhere and too much shit, apparently. Tunnel boring machines being used to excavate(expand?) sewage systems in Metro area to help avoid sewage spills into rivers during storm surges, will help to reduce sewage pollution of Chesapeake bay, I presume.

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  56. Concrete maker hanging in there with 100 shares bid on each side but looks pricy to me thus going much higher.

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  57. I brought this up before...wouldn't falling oil have a positive impact on TA? Or am I missing something?

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  58. Low gasoline prices leaves some room for increasing fuel taxes, "carbon tax" sounds good to me if those owners of rural wooded acreage and forest receive a huge tax break in exchange for maintaining their lots in wooded condition as opposed to clearing their private properties.

    Hell, I'm looking at a substantial wooded forest through my window here that has to be worth a small fortune when it comes to collecting carbon credits, I'm doing my part towards being an environmental steward over here and not receiving any of the benefit yet.

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  59. "Markets are selling off due to concern surrounding falling oil prices"

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  60. "Maryland's deficit is much larger than anyone imagined"
    LOL, even despite they have a "rain tax" on homeowners!

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  61. Advanced level news just in: "Producer prices fell last month" Thus derisking chances of a FED rate hike.

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  62. Let's say the ultimate premium off the bottom TLM is able to get is 50%. Think how many traders/investors need 100%+ just to BE. I suspect more tax selling into year end.

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    1. Yep, it's one story that keeps unraveling and end of year timing is superb.

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    2. I was working a little on OAS.

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  63. With the exception of CAF, none of the positions I opened on Wednesday paid off. All positions were taken off the table this morning. Investors are clearly signaling 'risk off' in the emerging markets sector.

    There will always be winning trades and losing trades. Unless I'm playing an established uptrend, I exit quickly on positions that move against me. I think it's important for those in the financial services industry to acknowledge that not all strategies will be successful, and to furthermore elucidate exactly how they will handle positions that move against them. Nothing more exasperating than listening to traders who report nothing but winning trades. If that was the case, wouldn't they all be retired with no continuing need to risk capital?

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    1. FCAU is working pretty well so far, don't forget to look it over.

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    2. The only auto stock up of the 5 on my list. sp gagging

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    3. Taking every major SP sector down today, finally.

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  64. TLM, that was a great sale on the spike Marko!

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    1. Thanks bro. That one trade turned my whole year around.

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  65. "DC experiencing a condo glut, thousands unsold." I think this is b/c only high end demand exists and $15/hr employment doesn't support high end.

    But the capital beltway is a madhouse much of the day so government employees leave their homes at 4:00am for the commute into the DC area.

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  66. Man I want to step in here but am afraid I'll just step in it.

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    1. Bevmo is going to sell a very expensive bottle of booz tonight.

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    2. What time frame would you have on a purchase?

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  67. FRO - Would it be fair to say this one is a difficult buy at $2.27?

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  68. What an easy day, BXE didn't drop another $0.30 !!!!! Hooray!!!

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  69. JONE - I think on exceptionally bad days, this one could be a good flip. Assuming the strength doesn't vaporize.

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  70. Jerry Seinfeld might be long Ferrari?
    http://jalopnik.com/jerry-seinfeld-says-the-toyota-prius-crushes-the-soul-o-1661169614

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  71. Maybe Monday morning Mark? After a bad Friday, we get the typical Monday selloff and reversal day?

    Interestingly small caps outperformed today and the oil stocks didn't seem to go down as much as oil. Maybe a change in market character.

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  72. Nicely done, Mark. You must have opened the position while I was away (or not paying attention).

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  73. Replies
    1. Could be worse. Managers behind ATACX have been tweeting 'defense' all week, but they must have decided on the Hail Mary instead last Friday. Closed the day at its YTD low.

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    2. Am I finally able to post 'Black Monday' for real?

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    3. I have to say, that doesn't strike me as a robust defense. I bet they make another lower low Monday.

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    4. More of a bust yo' a-- defense.

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  74. Well, that was a ton of fun. My portfolio managed to close near flat today instead of down another 2~3%, amazing!

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    1. I'll be able to say that on Monday. Only b/c I'm holding cash.

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  75. Mark, I'm sitting here trying to think(purely as an exercise) of a way for you to approach MOG and it struck me you could begin with an oil industry joke along the lines of this:

    "An explorer that strikes oil is considered a king while one who strikes water is forgiven and the one who strikes gas is punished."

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    1. I don't get that one. Here's a better one.

      'Hemorrhoids? Yeah I got 'em too, man. You know, I was surfing the web for info, and got a pop-up window ad for a medical marijuana product. They give you a link you can click on to see what hemorrhoids look like. wtf? I don't need to see pix. I don't WANT to see pix. If I want to see one I can take a hand mirror and bend over! Anyway, a few tokes every night is supposed to cure the condition. Serious? Look, anyone who tells you weed can cure hemorrhoids is blowing smoke up yo' ---.'

      After that, you should be able to ask MOG anything.

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    2. Oh good one, complete with an image! :)

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    3. And honestly, if you really believe medical marijuana can't provide relief from that ailment you're obviously not inhaling properly! :)

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  76. RBA - See, this one's revving up for major auction action.

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  77. Okay, so at this point I'm going to stick my neck out by predicting that oil demand goes parabolic.

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  78. YPF - Woo-hoo, wonder if Soros is riding this billy goat?

    Hey, someone look under the table and let TOF know the market's closed.

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  79. Interesting analysis from Carter Worth re. Markets (ex US) ...

    http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000338823

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  80. GE - Looking like an entry coming, don't you guys think? Wonder if they might have something big up their sleeve?

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