Wednesday, December 24, 2014

12/24/14 Re-BRIC'd

Shanghai sold off -2% overnight, adding to a -3% decline on Tuesday.  Russia opened weak on news of a credit downgrade.  Brazil was pressured by continuing weakness in oil.  

EEM (Emerging Markets), RSX (Russia), CAF (China ‘A’ Shares) and EWZ (Brazil) have had (and still have) no shortage of reasons to sell off.  They’ve recovered from the mid-December washout lows and are holding up nicely.  Seasonal bias (which generally refers to the last 5 trading days of December + the first 2 in January) turns positive today. 


  • Opened CAF (China ‘A’ Shares) @ 27.7x.
  • Opened EWZ (Brazil) @ 36.2x.
  • Opened RSX (Russia) @ 15.5x.
  • Opened PBR (Petrobras) @ 7.5x.
  • Opened GDP (Goodrich Petroleum) @ 4.9x. 
  • Opened RYWVX (Rydex 2x Emerging Markets) at the 1030 est window.

Why the obsession with Emerging Markets?  The US indexes are likely in the later innings of their bull run.  For emerging markets, it may be only the bottom of the first.

(Note that UGAZ declined another -11% today.  That's an extreme, 'off-Desolation Row' kind of negativity.  It ends at some point, but no longer a candidate for trading until a bottom is in.)

146 comments:

  1. Quoting a Marketwatch columnist: 'According to data from Yale and Jeff Hirsch’s Stock Traders Almanac, the average year ending in “5” has produce a gain of 28.3% (!) going all the way back to 1885.' If that holds true in 2015, I predict John Hussman gives up.

    ReplyDelete
  2. "In a speech last year, Tom Donilon, then Barack Obama’s national security adviser, said the US was now less vulnerable to global oil shocks. The cushion provided by shale oil and gas “affords us a stronger hand in pursuing and implementing our national security goals”.

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  3. Miners - gold and silver miners filing bankruptcy, how long before oil and gas producers begin down the same path?

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  4. I'm contemplating holding on to my WYNN position for a longer period than I have. I bought in at $137 which seems like a pretty good price for a longer term hold for a variety of reasons:

    (1) the stock is down big from the $249 high it reached nine months ago. At the time I bought it was down 45% but the $249 high was excessive. It should have not gotten there at that time (maybe later).
    (2) the dividend yield, while in no way guaranteed because the casino business is cyclical, is really attractive. TTM dividends were $7.75 which amounted to a 5.7% yield on the $137 cost.
    (3) they are constructing Wynn Palace in Macau which could be a huge boost to earnings...completion date is expected to be 2016. Not many people know about this but there is a huge bridge being built that will connect Hong Kong to Macau in 2016 that could open up a lot more gamblers to Macau and could transform investment into China (maybe this is part of why the Chinese stock market has been rallying so hard??) Read more here:

    http://online.barrons.com/articles/macau-casinos-time-to-bet-on-the-house-again-1418977279
    (4) Wynn won a casino license in Massachusetts (fairly close to downtown Boston) that could be really lucrative. This is being opposed for a variety of reasons and is not a sure thing yet but it could be a nice boost to earnings down the road.

    From what I know amongst my friends, the perception of WYNN is that it is one of the higher class joints in Vegas and I think the brand is well regarded. I've contemplated the right time to moves some of this money back into FCAU but I feel as though I got lucky with my entry on what might have been a washout low. The December Macau numbers aren't going to be pretty but like the article above says, the worst of the downturn in Macau may be priced in already.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It appears Lake Mead level has gained a few feet in the past few weeks or months, not sure what snow pack looks like currently.

      Delete
    2. fwiw, I received a mailer invitation from Wynn Las Vegas in early November for a Getaway Package> two-night-stays starting from $299 on select dates through April 2015. I've never stayed at the Wynn, so they obtained my name/address via a data bank.

      Delete
  5. Wondering if the slowdown in the oil industry might create issues for pickup truck sales?

    "Canadians registered more new vehicles in 2013 than any year in the country’s auto-buying age. Yet in 2014, that record was very nearly broken in the first eleven months of the year.

    Auto sales in Canada through November 2014 rose 5.5%, a gain of 89,000 units compared with the first eleven months of 2013.

    Despite a sharp 3.4% decline in the number of passenger cars sold in November, the Canadian auto industry was up 3.6% last month thanks to strong pickup truck volume (up 15% to 25,811 units) and continued improvement in the SUV/crossover category. "

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  6. Following a -5% decline early in the week, the Shanghai Composite has now rebounded +185 points (back-to-back gains on Christmas [+3.36%] and Friday [+2.77%]), taking the index back to its highs of the year.

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  7. (a) The RUT (Russell 2000 index of small caps) is at all time high this morning. Not a single investor in the index is holding a losing position. An extremely bullish short-term scenario.
    (b) EEM +1.25%.
    (c) CAF (China 'A' Shares) +5.42%.
    (d) EWZ (Brazil) +1%, RSX (Russia) +2%.
    (e) Crude trying to find its footing. GDP (Goodrich Petroleum) +3%, PBR (Petrobras) flat.

    ReplyDelete
  8. JNK - No reason not to think this pig won't crash again, JNK lifted quite a bit but no reason to think it's not headed down the toilet once the momo play fades out.

    About everything is in oversupply, you name it.

    ReplyDelete
  9. VA - Some nice action, thought I'd mention it instead of pumping stuff in a downtrend.

    ReplyDelete
  10. GPRO - Back to $68, what a load of BS

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  11. Weather report shows cold temperatures have returned and moving this direction.

    ReplyDelete
  12. ITW/GWW/PCP - Now which way, for these?
    NWLI - How many shares did it take to move this one up by $6.38, less than 2,000

    ReplyDelete
  13. 'The Gambler' (James Caan, 1974) available for streaming through 1/15/15.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Make that available through 1/1/15 only.

      Delete
  14. ALSK - Market cap is $92M, debt/eq is 3x and sale of asset is $300M - About debt free now?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Looks interesting - do you know how profitable the remaining business is?

      Delete
    2. Well no, TOF had looked at this one a while back and didn't like what he saw though. Of course I'm unable to make heads or tails of a balance sheet, what looks good isn't and what looks bad is good. I've learned that a PE of 500 is good and a PE of 7 isn't good.

      Delete
    3. OK, too bad. It can often be a good opp when a company can cut a big chunk of debt and reduce their interest costs, especially if the rest of the business is pretty good and now getting full attention.

      Delete
    4. Yeah, I have no idea if the remainder is profitable or not.

      Delete
    5. I haven't followed this one for a while so things may have changed.

      Delete
  15. AEG - This one appears to have a good amount of cash, debt doesn't appear excessive.

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  16. TA - There was a good reason for not buying this one, debentures?

    ReplyDelete
  17. REXX - Big Marcellus gas play, Marcellus is producing gas near zero cost, just stick a pipe in the ground (coal bed?).

    ReplyDelete
  18. Hope you're not short over the weekend:
    "TOKYO (AP) — Japan's Cabinet on Saturday approved about 3.5 trillion yen ($29 billion) in fresh stimulus, including subsidies and job creation, to help pull the world's third-largest economy out of recession."

    ReplyDelete
  19. Lots of stats from Fortune on how tough the year was:

    http://fortune.com/2014/12/24/investing-year-review/

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Tell me about it, my portfolio was hammered in a big way for not exiting BXE, destroyed.

      Delete
  20. VNM - Could be a good entry, economic report was bullish.

    ReplyDelete
  21. GE - What's up with the weak earnings guidance, what the heck happened to the switchover to natty fired turbines?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Nationally, the rise in natural gas accounts for about 45% of the decline in coal. The remainder was mostly accounted for by declining demand.

      Delete
  22. I'm assuming we're taking another week off from any serious trading?

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  23. Ride Winners and Cut Losers. Period.

    http://alphaarchitect.com/blog/2014/07/16/ride-winners-and-cut-losers-period/#.VKDWW14DA

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Quite right, regardless. Before losses rack up.

      Delete
  24. Replies
    1. Or much more by not riding it down. Not sure what moved it up but don't see them going to production anytime in the next decade or two?

      Delete
  25. I think this was known Friday, or what?

    "Japan's Cabinet on Saturday approved about 3.5 trillion yen ($29 billion) in fresh stimulus"

    ReplyDelete
  26. FCAU - Looks like a bear flag, doesn't it? With a gap up.
    http://www.finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=fcau&ty=c&ta=1&p=d

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  27. VNM - I guess the good news was priced in last week?

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  28. Going to be a quiet week, almost for sure. Tax loss selling over, so most trading done and very little company news this week, so will be all macro level trading. Probably biggest news this morning is Libya having oil problems again and 1 facility with 800K bbls/day being hit.

    Going to Mexico this aft for the week and our resort only was wifi in the lobby, so will be very little trading for me unless it rains so I have to go to the bar and the resort runs out of beer and tequila!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Cool bro. Have a great time.

      Delete
    2. where in mexico? we got back from the complete opposite end of the world...we vacationed in colorado for Christmas. My son got to play in 9 inches of snow which was pretty awesome. No beer or tequila for us, though, unfortunately.

      Delete
    3. Playa Del Carmen, south of Cancun. Relaxing, resort area. Not super Mexican culture but lots of fun and good food. Going all inclusive.
      Would like to go skiing in Colorado sometimes, but the rest of the family prefers the heat

      Delete
  29. I keep looking at YNDX. Anyone have any special insight on that one? Came across this:

    Last November, I profiled Russian search engine company, Yandex (YNDX).

    I pegged it as a “major player in the online search market,” and one of my top tech stocks for 2014.

    In fact, Yandex is so large, it’s often dubbed the “Google of Russia.”

    With good reason, too.

    In November, I said, “Yandex is an attractive company that’s well able to continue its growth curve and invest in future product developments.”

    Well… it just added another weapon to its arsenal.

    Last week, Yandex announced that it’s expanding into the “classifieds” area by offering $175 million for car sales and advertising website, Auto.ru.

    With over 400,000 classified car ads, along with ads for auto parts and repair services, Auto.ru is one of Russia’s top three auto classified sites, and No. 1 in Moscow.

    But it’s not just an advertising portal…

    Auto.ru is similar to Yelp (YELP), in that it also functions as a consumer information portal, hosting reviews and forums for automobile subjects.

    So Yandex isn’t just expanding into the auto classifieds market, it’s also becoming the go-to place to get detailed answers about cars.

    The deal is expected to close in the third quarter. And it underlines my belief that it’s a “tech all-star,” as it will add to the company’s already strong growth…

    Consider, in 2013, Yandex cracked the $1-billion barrier by growing its revenue to $1.2 billion, versus the $941.7 million it grossed in 2012. That resulted in net income of $410 million – up a staggering 52%.

    The additional revenue from Auto.ru will only help Yandex going forward. Especially in continuing to trounce Google (GOOG) in Russia, where it boasts more than double Google’s market share.

    Like Google, Yandex is expanding outside of internet search revenue, too.

    In January, the company spent $80 million to buy delivery firm, MultiShip, continuing a trend in recent years that has seen Yandex broaden its reach into mobile technology, mail, mapping and movies.

    The company also penned a deal with Facebook (FB) in January, which gives it access to Russian Facebook users’ public data. Yandex will now be able to include a user’s posts, and the comments on those posts, in its search results.

    ReplyDelete
  30. ORI - What are the chances the ih&s fruits, considering the US yield curve has flattened bearishly and europe seems unable to QE?

    WYNN - TOF's pick is lifting here today!!!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. check out these dividends on WYNN over the past 8 years:

      2006 $6.00
      2007 $6.00
      2008 $0.00
      2009 $4.00
      2010 $8.00
      2011 $5.00
      2012 $7.50
      2013 $6.00
      TOTAL $42.50

      Delete
  31. Picked up some YNDX at $18.4

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  32. I sold all of my WYNN at $153.7 to $154.5. Booking a 11% gain in like 2 weeks. I think it runs higher but tough to pass up a big gain like that. Rolled more into YNDX. 20% position in that.

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    Replies
    1. Picked up some UGAZ at $4.99 and HABT at $33.36. I'm playing for brief bounces in both.

      Delete
    2. Sold HABT at $33.9.

      Delete
    3. Sold UGAZ at $5.13. I could see that running hard but a nice gain in just 30 minutes or so.

      Delete
  33. I think if you buy YNDX here and hold for a year it could do really well. I don't ever really hold for more than 6 months or so unless it's a internet stock in it's infancy like BIDU which I held for a couple of years but this reminds me a lot of when those other internet stocks like NFLX, BIDU, etc got beaten down and came roaring back a year or so later.

    lots of risk because of russia so it could go down a lot first so i wouldn't put a huge amount in it but it’s pretty cheap right now.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. There was s Canadian oil company back in 1998 which was drilling in Russia and trading at an obscene low price of 1 times cash flow. Ended up being a 30 times winner, but was tough to buy then like any Russia stock is now.

      Probably it ends up Ok, but could be tough in between

      Delete
    2. Any idea what the impact of a crashing ruble is on the debt that a company like VIP has? I think its domiciled in the Netherlands but I believe a lot of their debt is denominated in rubles. If they’re in a net debt position then wouldn’t a falling ruble positively impact them?

      Delete
    3. Did pot squeeze out all the shelf space for beer and tequila in Co.?

      Delete
  34. Added some more YNDX into the close.

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  35. Crude oil supply / demand
    http://www.yardeni.com/pub/globdemsup.pdf

    If this is true (that supply and oil have been rising and we're still seeing higher demand than supply), then I would think it's very very important in determining strategy for next year to consider which companies have benefited most from lower oil and vice versa.

    ReplyDelete
  36. Interesting strategy for long term success: Momentum + Value:
    www.millennialinvest.com/blog/2014/5/12/two-ways-to-improve-the-momentum-strategy

    Downside is the drawdowns in 2008/9 were really big I believe.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. An updated article on this same thing:
      http://www.millennialinvest.com/blog/2014/12/9/value-momentum-the-tortoise-and-the-hare

      Delete
  37. I started buying back into FCAU today. Plan on building out a position.

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    Replies
    1. So far so good. I was looking closer at the p/e's of BIDU as a comparison from 2006 to 2009 and there looks to be more potential downside for YNDX if things really hit the fan. The issue is we're in a raging bull market and the comparison to the lows for BIDU in 2008/9 probably shouldn't apply.

      Anyway, here's what I saw:
      2007 High p/e: 176.5
      2007 Low p/e: 38.8

      2008 High p/e: 62.2
      2008 Low p/e: 16.22

      2009 High p/e: 29.43
      2009 Low p/e: 6.98

      YNDX:
      (Yandex has a much lower rate of growth at around 30% vs 100% for BIDU back in 2008/9)
      2012 High p/e: 58.3
      2012 Low p/e: 34.4

      2013 High p/e: 55.1
      2013 Low p/e: 25.4

      2014 High p/e: 44.3
      2014 Low p/e: 14.6

      Delete
  38. Happy New Years Everyone, all the best in 2015 and beyond, I learned a lot from all of you, thanks.

    ReplyDelete
  39. Interesting if you have time.

    A Dozen Things I’ve Learned from Steve Jobs about Business

    http://25iq.com/2014/12/28/a-dozen-things-ive-learned-from-steve-jobs-about-business/

    ReplyDelete
  40. (a) Adding a position in AFK (Africa) @ 22.2x.
    (b) Adding a position in GREK (Greece) @ 13.5x.
    (c) Adding a position in FCG (an equal-weighted index of companies involved in the NGas sector) @ 11.4x.
    (d) Adding a position in RSXJ (Russia small-caps) @ 19.9x.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I like the GREK move. I've been looking at that one a lot.

      Delete
  41. Whoa I looked at CTCT for the first time in a while.

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  42. I started selling some of my YNDX and taking a small profit. I think I may have an opportunity to enter at a much better price but I could be wrong. Just thinking there is still another panic move lower coming eventually. Maybe there's panic/rioting in the streets???

    ReplyDelete
  43. Easily the most brilliant movie of all time:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7onFrBK_hKE#t=81

    ReplyDelete
  44. Reloaded FCAU at about $11.72 avg I think. Also sold out of YNDX completely for a small gain. I think there could be another panic selloff in Russian stocks which would create a huge opportunity I think in YNDX. In the meantime, I think FCAU is nearing the end of its consolidation period and I think the downside is limited to the low $11s.

    ReplyDelete
  45. KB - Meanwhile this one's busy tanking. Pressure from Japanese QE or Asia in the dumper?

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  46. ALDW - How in the world can this refinery have been paying a $4 dividend when their earnings are far below that? Any ideas?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Looks like they have pretty substantial free cash flow (i.e Cash Flow from Ops minus CapEx). This is the true operating power of a business and adds back things like depreciation expense to earnings because its not a cash item. That # dropped substantially in 2013, though. I dno't know enough about the business to offer up anything else than this but it's always important to look at FCF. This is one of the most important metrics to me when I'm looking at a dividend payer or a larger more stable company.

      Delete
    2. The cash flow increase came from this, which is what I'd anticipated. Now TEP has their Bakken pipeline to Cushing the spread might decrease assuming Midland supply doesn't increase. So this probably explains why share price has fallen:
      "This increase in operating margin was primarily due to a higher Gulf Coast 3/2/1 crack spread and a widening of both the WTI Cushing to WTS spread and the WTI Cushing to WTI Midland spread."

      Delete
  47. TEP - Speaking of this one, insider and institutional buying.

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  48. FRO - Too funny, contango oil is going to push this one up so wonder if management is going to take advantage by diluting into the rally?

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  49. GLDD - Even this one hasn't done badly.

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  50. Utilities - The biggest winner for 2014 - What's that tell us?

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    Replies
    1. It can tell us one of two things (or perhaps both):
      (1) danger - people are seeking shelter in defensives because something bad is going to happen
      (2) yield - people need higher yield because the 10 year / 30 year yields are too low.

      This is an important thing to watch I think.

      Delete
  51. ARO - Looks like total crap, probably ready for a 2015 turnaround?

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  52. BABA - Something holding this one back, PE is way too low!!! ? Surely it should take off?

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  53. 1ft of snow in Flagstaff now, that's where my VW was destroyed in snow in 1967 or so.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. it was cold here (for CA standards) last night. they were calling for flurries in Carlsbad.

      Delete
  54. I've been doing some work looking at winners and losers for myself in 2014 and looks like I will close out the year with more losers (52% of my trades lost $$) than winners despite having my biggest year in terms of $$ gains (not %). Definitely reinforces that concept of cutting losers quickly. As we progress further in the bull market I think it's important to constantly take a litmus test of the market and assess what is working.

    For me I've been sticking with blue chips for the past 6 months for the following reasons:
    (1) in anticipation of a dollar rally
    (2) because small caps are overvalued relatively speaking
    (3) I think this is the stage of the bull market where you can get demolished picking the wrong small caps.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. If you look at most of the momentum stocks the valuations are still really stretched. Even companies that are down big like TWTR, YELP, Z, etc., you're talking about companies trading at 10-15x 2015 revenue estimates. I wouldn't exactly call that a bargain. I think at best those stocks continue to consolidate for a while unless some foolish company comes out and buys them. The one I like the best in terms of fundamentals is Z but I wouldn't be surprised to see it drop 50% at some point.

      Delete
  55. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-31/birinyi-sees-protracted-durable-bull-market-in-s-p-500.html

    ReplyDelete
  56. Natty - Holy crap , infinite bottom...

    ReplyDelete
  57. SPXS - My short is starting to pay off.........

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  58. I picked up a little CAPL at $40.3 for my in laws accounts. It's a play on lower oil. Plus they have an interesting agreement in place with CST which is taking advantage of the NIZ trax treaty I mentioned a while ago that is in place in Allentown PA.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Man, I think it's not just Allentown, this is going to happen all over. Our Governor has requested the public email him ideas on how to attract new businesses to the state.

      Delete
  59. 1/3 of traffic fatalities are alcohol related.

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  60. SFL - This one might be good if tankers rally, I think they are paid a good deal of FRO's profits and distribute them as a dividend. Just not sure how FRO is beholding to SFL, whether it's a 2-way street or not. Seems like at one time FRO had a great quarter and SFL shareholders received a fat dividend as a result.

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  61. Energy - So I thought the CFTC looked into crude oil market manipulation last year and determined oil prices weren't high due to speculators buying it up........... So now it's being sold off there's no investigation whatsoever.

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  62. GREK - Wonder if Germany is about through trying to rape Greece?

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  63. ALDW - Talk about playing hard ball....

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  64. BB's on the TED spread look pretty tight?
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$TED&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p77964493156

    ReplyDelete
  65. Fed forecasting tool calls for immediate rate hike, Plosser says

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  66. BXE - I think I'm going to have to take the loss, this company has too much debt to make a recovery given the fundamentals.

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  67. SPXS - This is the only position I'm green on, add to winners and cut losers, right guys?

    ReplyDelete
  68. "The Fed has made it clear that it intends to begin the process of raising interest rates some time in 2015. This is a problem for emerging-market countries, who could see their currencies depreciate rapidly as traders abandon them for a higher-yielding dollar. "

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  69. PAL - $0.26 would be a double. What are the chances?

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  70. ASHR - Have you guys seen this thing moving up? I have to think you haven't but who knows.....

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  71. YELP - Don't overlook this one either, seems compelling do we still like it?

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  72. Tof, what were your most successful stocks in 2014?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. How about one that actually makes a profit and pays a dividend?

      Delete
    2. BB - In order of dollar amounts:

      LAKE
      *FCAU
      *WYNN
      *LEJU
      *APT
      BALT
      UGAZ
      DGLY
      *YELP
      ACHN
      *EMES

      CP - The ones asterisked make profits. The only ones I held for more than a few weeks were FCAU, LEJU, and BALT.

      Delete
  73. Closing all positions this morning, one trading day short of what normally marks the end of the 'seasonally positive' late December/early January streak. Sure, the indexes could take off on Monday, but that's not my opinion. Taking minor hits on most positions, somewhat offset by an +11% gain on CAF (China 'A' Shares).

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yep, seems like the Santa rally came and went, took a portion of my portfolio with it. Made some coin back with SPXS and ALDW though.

      You want a better entry, just wait till Germany nixes the ECB QE plan.

      Delete
    2. It wouldn't surprise me to see a sizable pullback right away this year since no one expects it.

      Delete
  74. Recent reports from West Texas indicate the mad boom remains in progress.

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  75. There's a potential for a major move in the euro coming. It is at a 5 year low and could very easily crash lower from here if its pushed on heavily. The bulls need to make a stand here in my opinion.

    This does make me a bit nervous holding FCAU in the short term, to be honest.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I clearly expect a lower euro, you don't? If holding FCAU with a lower euro on the way is a bad idea then why do we own it?

      Is there any other currency in the world that deserves to rally more than the $US?

      Delete
    2. ugh i already submitted a response but it got deleted. i think it's still up for debate b/c the majority of their revenues come from the usa right now. they will need to convert those revenues to euros i believe b/c of their headquarters but i wonder what hedging they have in place and if it really matters that much.

      Delete
    3. I would think if the debt was denominated in euros that could be a nice tailwind. I don't know the rate FCAU is paying but hopefully there's some sort of positive spread.

      Delete
  76. I'm almost surprised natty is up today, probably just a bounce helped by news of colder weather next week?

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  77. I took the small gain in CAPL. I think it goes higher on lower oil but I'm more concerned with the overall market in the near term.

    ReplyDelete
  78. Dutch Disease - In economics, the Dutch disease is the apparent relationship between the increase in the economic development of natural resources and a decline in the manufacturing sector. Export of Dutch natural gas caused the currency to rise, squeezing the manufacturing sector.

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  79. ALDW - A lower high, expect it might come back for a reload.

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  80. Was that the yield curve I heard flattening?

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  81. PCRX - What do you guys think, I'm inclined to believe it's unlikely to break down here.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I own it and health care is one of the stronger sectors which gives you wind at your back.

      Also double down on HAL, stop would be around 36.9 for me.

      Delete
  82. ORI - Bounced off that $14.48 support, wonder what "surprises" next week brings?

    ReplyDelete
  83. Good interview with Mohnish Pabrai, a value guy with good returns since 2000...about 18% annually I believe. His top holding is a 25% position in FCAU:
    http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/et-now/experts/aware-of-the-intrinsic-value-of-all-invsts-made/videoshow/45686622.cms

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Enjoyed that thanks for posting.

      Takes:

      Have a checklist, write a paragraph of why you bought, update 3 or 6 months after till target obtained.

      In commodities only buy low cost producers.

      Be patient

      Pick stocks which have downside protection, upside will take care of itself with time.

      He claims his ideas are not original, but clones from other great investors, use 13 F's for ideas

      FCAU, sounds as if he has owned this for awhile, would be curious to know his average price.

      Delete
    2. link to his 13F is under Dalal Street LLC

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lXJGRz1nep8

      Perhaps he just bought FCAU this Q since it does not show in holdings

      Delete
    3. a link to his book

      http://www.amazon.com/Dhandho-Investor-Value-Method-Returns/dp/047004389X/sr=1-1/qid=1162504063/ref=sr_1_1/102-9553816-0807363?ie=UTF8&s=books?tag2=pabraiinvestm-20

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    4. Reading over this F-1 from October, it struck me if Ferrari was monetized that should cover the unfunded pension obligation. Higher rates should also help, perhaps.

      http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1605484/000119312514369330/d755216df1.htm#rom755216_8

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    5. 13F link, sorry about the Feder link by mistake

      http://whalewisdom.com/filer/dalal-street-llc

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    6. That's Federer, poetry in motion, real genius.

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lXJGRz1nep8

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  84. Hi...so what do you guys do here?

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  85. A debate my wife and I are having as we try to figure out where to live:
    How important is it for kids to have their grandparents and uncles nearby as they get older?

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  86. Some fairly soft economic reports today.

    Take a big picture look at the DJIA since 1900:
    http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/historical/djia1900.html

    We are coming off a nearly 6 year run in stocks of 200%. The other times something similar happened were 1928/9, 1956, 1961/2, 1987, 1996. All except for 1996 resulted in at least medium pullbacks lasting for a decent amount of time. In 96 stocks ran another 50% higher only to fall back to where they were again in 1996. Just something to think about more.

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