Tuesday, January 20, 2015

1/20/15 'I was drowned, I was washed up and left for dead'

But it's all right now, in fact, it's a gas
But it's all right, I'm Jumpin' Jack Flash
It's a gas! Gas! Gas!

Was it just last Wednesday UGAZ (3x NGas futures) spiked +30%?  Today it's plummeting -24% to a new all-time low.  Opening a small position @ 3.32.

219 comments:

  1. UGAZ off @ 3.47 (+4.5%) in less than 30 minutes.

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  2. Well played.

    I'm not entire sure but I think I saw green on my screen today for the first time in a while, thanks to BABA, PCLN and THRM. Closed all of them into the close on account of a tough market.

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  3. FXCM closed a penny more than the open, pretty sure it doesn't count for anything. Shorts are making out like bandits.

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    Replies
    1. UBS and Barclay's have been touting this one this year, maybe they've been short?

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  4. "Venezuela car production plunges 72.5 percent in 2014 Reuters"

    Venezuela's economy is booming, demand for American products globally is driving up the $US, can't get these guys to purchase vehicles manufactured locally.

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  5. Picked up some DECK after hours at $79.3

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  6. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CkDZbGVR7Y8

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  7. CREE - Mark, our favorite stock of all time is lighting up?

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  8. Interesting:
    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-15/california-senator-seeks-to-require-calpers-to-divest-from-coal.html?cmpid=yhoo

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    1. Surprising they haven't already...

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    2. Calpers, with assets of $294 billion, had about $45.9 million in coal and consumable fuels holdings as of Sept. 30, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Its largest holdings were in Consol Energy Inc. (CNX), $19.4 million; Peabody Energy Corp. (BTU), $7.2 million, and Alliance Resources Partners LP , $5.2 million, the data show.

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    3. They should take some direction from the Canada Pension Plan:

      The CPPIB mandate is based on a governance structure that distinguishes us from a sovereign wealth fund. We have an investment-only mandate, unencumbered by political agendas and insulated from political interference in investment decision-making. Our management reports to an independent Board of Directors.

      Hmm, let the investment managers try and figure out the best way to invest - what a novel, unpolitical idea

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    4. Yes, US government must have the ability to determine who the winners and losers will be else there might be too muc opportunity for the middle class and the 1% won't be able to circulate ghost stories as a means for their smoke and mirrors strategy.

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  9. Sure is tempting to go short Gold and US treasuries ahead of the ECB announcement tomorrow. They've both had such big runups into the announcement, I think there is a very good chance we get a sell the news reaction and they bounce down.

    Now, since I'm usually wrong on these short term calls, you can probably make money going the other way, but it sure feels right.

    Not trading either way though, just commenting.

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    Replies
    1. I was considering shorting UST's too but if the ECB buys paper the sellers are going to take that somewhere else and go for a higher yield? Maybe that capital goes into European equities thus european economy, maybe both?

      So for now, I'm sufficiently unhappy with being underwater in DB, not sure how FCAU will be impacted but maybe Fiat auto sales jump?

      Maybe late day action will reveal something.

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    2. Gold looks weak now, a bizarre rally based on SNB's folly or what?

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  10. WGL - Nice chart, eh? Wondering why we pick stuff that doesn't rally and looks weak or trends downward instead?

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  11. SCTY - Short float is pretty dang high considering US government is mandating solar in our portfolios. Surprising there isn't a special capital gains transaction tax that goes directly towards renewable energy. Maybe there is.

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  12. LOL, Oil should trade between $10~$40, as if that price will bring this commodity to market. Maybe Saudi Arabia really does have infinite supply and has just been overcharging?

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    1. $45 was the geometric target BTW, not so many people seem capable of noticing or reading that price from the chart. So they just call for a lower number b/c they see a trend in place.

      We should be buying probably, but the momentum might take it down below the geometric target and the fallout of massive debt for these producers might cause a big scare?

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  13. Notice all energy is in the gutter including alternative, what are the chances somebody understands the real reason that we don't know of? Maybe a revolutionary climate change technology is near?

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    Replies
    1. I think it's just they are all move with oil as oil is what people compare too when making an energy decision.

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  14. Tesco, which Brad mentioned late last year, has had a nice move off the lows and is up 30% in the last 2 months.

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    Replies
    1. TESO has been trending down and is up 10% off recent lows, right?

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  15. Would copper prices crater, and nickel find support?

    “It has the demonstrated ability to produce excess amounts of energy, cleanly, without hazardous ionizing radiation, without producing nasty waste,” said Joseph Zawodny, a senior research scientist at NASA’s Langley Research Center.

    “The easiest implementation of this would be for the home,” he said. “You would have a unit that would replace your water heater. And you would have some sort of cycle to derive electrical energy from that.”

    A low-energy nuclear reactor offers an extra neutron to stable elements like nickel, carbon, or hydrogen to produce heat, electricity, and stable by-products like copper or nitrogen. It does not produce ionizing radiation nor radioactive waste."

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  16. So we should sell all our stocks the several days leading up to the ECB announcement then buy them all back in the few hours just prior, right? Sure. But, sell nickel. I dunno if I like nickel metal or not but the green energy called LENR might? Amazingly, these guys wait till the stock is down $5 to raise cash....

    ZINC - "Horsehead Holding Corp. Announces Public Offering 5,000,000 Shares of Common Stock Business Wire"

    "The Nickel Products and Services segment processes various metal-bearing waste material generated primarily by the specialty steel industry. It provides recycling services; and produces and sells nickel-chromium-iron remelt alloy that is used as a feedstock to produce stainless and specialty steels."

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  17. Picked up some TUP today at $62.

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  18. TOFer- What are your positions now?

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    1. I don't even know. Too many. Biggest position is now DECK. Have TA, AFL, GREK, COH, NILE, TUP, amongst others.

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    2. I'm still not doing well, though. Been having a really rough year this year.

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  19. BALT - Large volume spike yesterday, maybe accumulation? Anyway, definitely oversold?

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  20. TGIGT, doesn't feel like an arena worthy of exposing your life savings.

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  21. 10,000 gallons of oil spilled onto Yellowstone river from a pipeline, where are the government inspectors we're paying for? They're out enforcing healthcare laws that dictate we can't wipe our asses using a shower curtain? There should be a fuc'in shower curtain tax to discourage the practice.

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  22. Our governor is in the hospital with broken ribs and lung drains from his trip to Tanzania, Africa.

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  23. Corporate Jets - What's with all these sales of small corporate jets, these planes are huge CO2 emitters and they're probably being subsidized.

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  24. RLGY - How's that internet real estate broker doing, in comparison? I forget the name,my brain is spinning, dizzy as hell, brown/yellow blank spots on screen.

    What's the child care play, has Blackstone bought up those assets in the private market yet?

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  25. TOF, it's been a rough market the last while, worse than the indexes show I think.

    Things pretty much stopped working for me around last Aug/Sept. For me, I find when things stop working, it often lasts about 6 to 9 months based on the monthly charts I have since 2000 (except the financial crisis), so I am hopeful we are close to the start of things going well again.

    I personally think its just a matter or certain styles work well in certain markets and the markets go through phases where different things work.

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  26. (a) Emerging markets spiked through resistance today on above-average volume. Fund managers have been underweight the sector since December (remember the -10% pullback last month?). I was tempted to 'buy in' this morning, but that would have meant 'chasing.' A more prudent approach is to 'let price(s) come to you,' so I'm hoping to enter on a pullback tomorrow. Unfortunately, the European Central Bank is scheduled to unveil its bond-purchase (QE) program Thursday morning. If investors react positively, I'm unlikely to see an attractive entry scenario (in which case there will be no trade).

    (b) Note the recent strength in miners. I opened a modest position in GDX this morning on weakness, which I closed later in the day for a +1.3% gain. A better buying opportunity may materialize in the next few days.

    (c) Speaking of 'letting the price come to you,' note that JCP (JC Penney) spiked +20% to 7.89 January 7 (trading 4x normal volume) on an upside surprise in holiday sales. The stock price continued higher to 8.30 before pulling back. I opened a position after hours today @ 7.24, which I consider a reasonable entry.

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    1. So hard to know what the reaction tomorrow will be. On CNBC tonight, they were talking about huge call buying in the EWG (Germany ETF), so if the announcement is in-line or light, we could see strong selling as these calls get closed out. The real reaction may not be for a couple of days when the traders are less of a factor.

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  27. I remember when the US FED did QE, it was a buy. So I don't think anyone can expect for prices to come back to them and this bout of selling has been positioning for the ECB event.

    We'll see, but I'm not expecting lower prices.

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  28. Every time I'm feeling ready to reengage the market I allow my self to be easily distracted. I am very busy at work but there's something under the surface here.

    TOF- I'll give you a buzz tomorrow.

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    Replies
    1. I'm under the surface, where it's exceedingly difficult to breath.

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  29. PCLN - Testing resistance. This feels like BID getting dumped then lifting again. Brokers raping customers?

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  30. guys - heads up on FFIV. this one showed up in my watch list for stocks under the Joel Greenblatt screener (high return on capital, high earnings yield). it took a $20 hit after hours which undoubtedly makes it a lot cheaper. not saying buy right here but definitely worth a look.

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    Replies
    1. Thanks for the heads-up, wonder if it can manage the standard 50% haircut....

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    2. So looks like the subsidy pulled them through but that no doubt expires at some point.

      "F5 revenues missed estimates but EPS beat due to an R&D tax credit. The stock traded down 15% after hours. We maintain our Neutral rating, tweak estimates to reflect lower revenues and new share buybacks, and lower our PO to $126. The quarter raises concerns over the company's key current growth drivers, while the next wave may be slow to materialize."

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  31. WNR - This one sports a 3.55% dividend

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  32. Quite a few buy signals generated the past couple days, I guess you guys noticed. So I have to wonder about stocks that didn't make the cut, some kind of rotation?

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  33. Positions that pulled back for me this morning:

    (a) Reopened GDX @ 22.55.
    (b) Reopened UGAZ @ 3.49.

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  34. SWN- Capitulation a few days ago? Highest volume in 15 years by far.

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    Replies
    1. Yeah, it looks good except hydrocarbon fuels are dead and the new transportation alternative emits no CO2:

      http://www.oldcarmanualproject.com/stuff/1936RadioCar/RadioCar1936_0001.jpg

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  35. Impulse Wave Up?

    Way too many bearish prognostications right now (ie, markets will sell off following today's 'reflexive' buying into ECB announcement of bond purchases). Here's my thesis: Emerging markets are cheap. Oil/commodities prices should recover. Funds will be rotating out of the US and into developing markets.

    (a) Reopened PBR (Petobras) @ 7.60.
    (b) Opening a half position in RYWVX (Rydex 2x Emerging Markets) @ the 1030 window. Half position because I'm uncharacteristically 'chasing' here (although I believe the risk:reward is good).
    (c) Adding to GREK (Greece) on today's decline to 12.30.
    (d) Reopened EWZ (Brazil) @ 37.93.
    (e) Reopened OIH (Oil Services) @ 34.15.
    (f) I may add to miners should the $USD begin declining in earnest.

    There appears to be a stealth impulse buy wave setting up. Traders who shorted into today's ECB moves will be driving indexes back up.

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  36. Adding to UGAZ @ 3.22. (Forgot it was Thursday!)

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  37. TA having a great day. I still think this one makes serious bank with low oil. Plus, the buyouts in its space are at much higher multiples than where this trades at. Here's a good primer on the stock:

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/2817576-straightforward-business-compelling-valuation-and-investment-opportunity-travel-centers-of-america-llc

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    1. lots of companies are using tax loopholes to take advantage of the fuel sales in these gas station type companies. That's what happened with CST / CAPL. PTRY, SUSS, and others. With a high volume / low margin business any incremental margin can dramatically improve the valuation from an acquirer's standpoint. Plus, I think of it as a play on real estate. The locations these guys have become more valuable over time.

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    2. You talked me out of that one over a year ago.

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    3. Ha. I'm like John Kerry. A true flip flopper.

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    4. Yeah, that thesis doesn't apply well to scalp trades. :)

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    5. Extending this logic further, Lake looks like a buy @ $30.

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  38. The Fly: "Banks in Germany can’t sneeze without a bank in NYC feeling the breeze. So, we find ourselves in a situation where central banks desperately attempt to keep the party going. Scott Bleier called it years ago: We are all Japan."

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  39. Am I missing something or is CONN a big time short candidate?

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    1. Sounds like a Circuit City, I'm pretty sure you aren't interested in my theories why it might be a good short.

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  40. Toyota's fuel cell vehicle doesn't pollute, only emits water vapor and no CO2 at all! Wow, man, that's the ultimate solution! :)

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  41. Whack-a-mole-alert.....
    LE - Lands End suffers due to lacking sales from warm winter.. Didn't they say last year sales were down due to colder than normal winter?

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  42. BXE - Despite this one is down the customary $0.10, my port is still green since it's value has deteriorated by 70% Still, BXE slides further from $10 each day it's comforting to know nobody cares as much as I do about my money, LOL, thx..

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  43. "Sounds like a Circuit City, I'm pretty sure you aren't interested in my theories why it might be a good short."

    Of course I am. The issue is I hardly have the time or ability (b/c this website regularly refuses to post my comments on my laptop and never allows me to do so on a phone) to write.

    You guys see the rumor on TWTR? GOOGL to buy them is the rumor. I think this is absolutely essential for GOOGL. Its all about real time news search revenues.

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    1. CNBC saying GOOG knows TWTR has better real time search and is getting nervous, but would be an expensive buy.

      What issue are you having posting? The only thing I get is hitting the backspace after typing, but not having the cursor in the comment space, then it takes it as a web "go back a screen" instruction. Other than that, I can do from my laptop, phone and tablet?

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    2. I don't have any problems with posting on this board but I've got all the scripts blocked except the essential one or two. Scripts tend to hang my system, so I block as many as possible b/c I don't have visibility or other control over them.

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  44. "Extending this logic further, Lake looks like a buy @ $30."

    LAKE was good to me for a trade. I think TA is a better longer term trade on falling oil and tax advantages related to fuel sales. I mentioned that NIZ in Allentown, PA...its akin to that kind of tax strategy. In fact, I believe CST did some deals with CAPL to take advantage of the low margin/high volume fuel sales.

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  45. Doubled my position in CBI at $38.84, just up from my first purchase - have about 2/3 of a full position now. Will probably wait a couple months to see if we get a good sell-off this spring to add lower.

    They do a lot of business with energy companies, so trade with the price of oil, but don't have the commodity risk and at last forecast, had good looking 2015 earnings. Even if these earnings don't all come through, seems to be exceptionally cheap and well-positioned in their industry.

    Should we get a fast bounce on oil, of course they won;t have the upside of the energy companies (especially the juniors), but still happy to play the energy rebound from a more conservative angle and still have enough energy stocks if we do get the bounce.

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  46. European exporters, who are they and can we own them in our simpleton accounts?

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  47. Germany - I can imagine Germans were hyperventilating today, and buying gold?

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  48. CW - Told you this one wouldn't slip out of the flag.

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  49. Guys check out BH when you get a chance. It's a holding company and holds 4 Million shares of CBRL, all of Steak n Shake and a few other things. Very interesting company.

    Posting - from time to time I can't post at all and on my iphone i can't post. no idea why.

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  50. UUP is still way outperforming my portfolio, I should be long this one.

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  51. I dunno, are these guys long gold about to get smashed? UUP outperformed gold, eventually this correlation fails?

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  52. RE BH,

    Just based on my quick readthrough,

    1. I would not buy an asset management company at 1.36 time book value unless I knew there was hidden value in the assets or they had a fee income stream that was outside the assets on the books
    2. Seems to be a number of issues where the company is being run for the president and not for the shareholders - I would also be cautious on that. Plus his compensation seems excessive ($900K plus 25% of the increase in book value over 6%)

    They seem to own some restaurants, plus do insurance and some media stuff, so maybe it is more of an operating company (with a dumb name) than an asset management company. So perhaps these businesses are worth more than their book value and it is a good investment. I'd have to read their financials, but based on what I've seen so far, unless you tell me I'm missing something, I'm not going to do more work.

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    Replies
    1. BB - My interest in BH has more to do with the founder than anything...impressive guy from what I've read:
      http://www.thestreet.com/story/12735657/1/a-new-look-at-would-be-buffett-sardar-biglari.html

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sardar_Biglari

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  53. TOF, is it a login issue? I use my google login and it works well, but I have had issues in the past with the wordpress login,

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    1. Pretty sure I'm using a google login

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    2. I use wordpress BB but I honestly haven't bothered to look at alternative login options.

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  54. The impulse wave hit. The question is whether enough shorts are underwater to continue the pounding on Friday.

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  55. BXE - Sure wish I'd sold this Canadian stock at $8, it'll be the last one I ever buy.

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  56. "The amount of projected 2015 oil and natural gas output a company has hedged is a strong indicator of whether they’ll be able to pay their bills, he said. Another important metric is how much is drawn on revolver loans"

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  57. http://www.dnainfo.com/new-york/20140401/upper-east-side/manhattans-real-estate-prices-reach-record-1363-foot

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  58. PAAs' pipeline through Midland is getting a little hot, I guess MTDR is going to be adding to it so maybe this and the Bakken delivering through TEP's pipe will really drop the price in Big Spring. Wonder if Big Spring can process this hot stuff?

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  59. BXE - Well, looking at this one you'd never know Texas oilers are up 20% off the lows while this POS keeps sliding lower and lower...

    SXL, PAA, CXO, etc. What a turd.

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    Replies
    1. are u still holding BXE?

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    2. Yeah man, I am unfortunately. It's stupid as heck to ride it down here from over $8, huh?

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    3. wow. what's the exit strategy on your position?

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    4. LOL, funny question! :) My chance to exit with my ass intact expired long ago when I made the mistake of believing the trumped up hype.

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  60. BB - I know you're a flowers guy. Interesting read here:
    http://microfundy.tumblr.com/post/108675635840/why-ftd-might-get-acquired-in-2017

    Didn't realize FTD is a publicly traded company. It's actually cheaper than FLWS on a FCF basis...most likely b/c of the huge runup in FLWS shares.

    These online niche companies can be very valuable in the long run. It's part of the reason I like NILE a lot.

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    Replies
    1. Good find. Going to do some more research.

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  61. Oil is following the 2008 S&P playbook. March lows? Might be something to consider.

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    Replies
    1. According to TD, all (or maybe it was almost all) previous major oil bear markets have ended in early spring, so that lines up too.

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  62. Great story behind Box which will be tomorrow's overpriced IPO, but probably a big winner longer term:
    http://www.techrepublic.com/article/how-aaron-levie-and-his-childhood-friends-built-box-into-a-2-billion-business-without-stabbing-each-other-in-the-back/

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  63. (a) Nice breakout in Greece this morning, sending the Athens Composite up +6% this morning.
    (b) Bourses in Asia + Europe higher across the board.

    We'll find out shortly whether fear is higher in the bull camp or the bear camp. I suspect the path of 'max frustration' leads higher.

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  64. (c) The $USD continues to soar, which will eventually force counter-trend traders to capitulate.
    (d) UGAZ (Ngas) closed pre-market @ 3.60.

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  65. Okay, so what happened to a higher 10yr rate?

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  66. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/95d79ac2-a239-11e4-aba2-00144feab7de.html#axzz3PebW7MRY

    I like this Joaquim Levy guy.

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    1. FYI the only way I've been able to read FT articles is by googling the title and then clicking on the link. otherwise there's a firewall they put up that you can't get across.

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  67. Dropping Euro hurting most of my Euro stocks today. For example, DB flat in Germany, but down 2.3% in the US.

    FCAU is motoring along (haha) though, up over 4% in Europe and 1.7% here. Seems a lot of the good things they are doing is being recognized.

    Watched a show called "Legendary Motorcar" last night where a guy paid over $3 million for a 50 year-old Austin Martin. He also talked about Ferrari and Maserati as being great classic cars to buy - all FCAU brands in the process of value being surfaced.

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  68. FTD definitely going on the watch list. Thanks TOF.

    It's a bit early to buy for a 2017 catalyst event, but I think people will forget about this over the next few months (as most investors are short-sighted) and we may get a pullback.

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    Replies
    1. EXACTLY. keep it on the long term watch list and hope you don't throw the list out :)

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  69. Despite the opening declines, odds are the dip is bought. IMHO, the market doesn't 'want' to go down. Note the put/call ratio of 1.3 this morning suggests a moderate degree of fear (which should be interpreted as bullish)- nothing to suggest complacence right now.

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    1. If I had to guess I'd say that the majority of people are:
      (1) in cash or leaning bearish
      (2) buying dips in oil
      (3) afraid to buy momo/growth stocks

      The opposite should all work in my opinion.

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    2. Agreed. I would also expect divergences to widen:

      (a) Whether oil prices rise or fall, XLE/OIH will begin to recover.
      (b) Whether US indexes rise or fall, EEM will continue to rally.

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  70. There will be volatility in GREK heading into Sunday's elections.

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    Replies
    1. Brazil also has a habit of making 'pronouncements' on Sundays.

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  71. ENPH - GS $11 target eh? They wanted in, looks like.

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  72. Ready for this? "Global stock index charts are poised for massive advance pending a breakout (but, will it happen?)"

    Brandt.... So it's time to be short, right?

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  73. Heroin deaths across the country have risen. Can this be blamed on lax prescription pain killer control?

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  74. TOF,

    re the FT, if you create an account without a subscription, I think you get 30 free articles a month. I read it all the time and rarely hit this limit.

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    Replies
    1. You're right. That's what it says, but I'm sure I read many more than that. I know certain parts are free all the time, so maybe I am staying in those sections. But if I was going to pay news, it would sure be the FT over the WSJ

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  75. GT - Cracks in the rubber, recalls tires.

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  76. Debating whether to hold GREK into the elections. I'll probably sell today and take the 4-5% gain.

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    Replies
    1. Started selling the GREK.

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  77. Sales for EV plug-in vehicles
    2011: 17,080
    2012: 52,607 (up 308%)
    2013: 97,507 (up 85%)
    2014: 119,710 (up 23%)

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  78. Hard to believe, but the S&P almost back to flat for the year.

    Healthcare, Consumer Staples and Utilities doing well, so the defensive sectors. Financials and energy are the bad ones.

    I'm definitely overweight financials and have no utilities or healthcare and minimal staples, so explains why I am down.

    It's still early and I still think this reverses this year with financials doing well and utilities poorly, but it could also be a sign things are worse than I think.

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    1. It's been an incredibly difficult market. No other words to describe it. We can choose to trade it or just deal with it. I tried trading it and quickly lost +/-10% while the one holding I had is the only one I know of that is up nicely this year (FCAU). All we can do is pay attention to what's working and where the market might be heading and position ourselves for it.

      I still think we consolidate for a while...potentially 2 years...before going higher. I think oil could very well consolidate between $40 and $60 during this time so I am positioned as much as I can for consolidation + things that work in a low oil, low inflation, low but steady growth economy. I also think there's a decent change we just get through this consolidation and rocket higher and see bonds come off and stocks scream into a peak in the next 18 months that ends with a 30 to 40% drop. I put the odds on that as low, though.

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    2. I will say though that there have been quite a few weak econ reports this year so its probably no coincidence that the market is tough. But January seems to always have some weakness.

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  79. GMO is beating the pants off BXE, +122% off the bottom.

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  80. (a) I was wrong about a higher close in global markets today.
    (b) On the other hand, most markets help up remarkably well. EEM closed above my Thursday morning entry point. GDX (miners), FCX (a proxy for copper), OIH (Oil Services), PBR (Petrobras) and EWZ (Brazil) all closed near intraday lows, but well within normal trading ranges for these volatile sectors. GREK was of course an outperformer.
    (c) I continue to believe there's enough fear to push indexes higher. If I'm wrong, my positions will be stopped out for minor losses.

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    1. I took my entire GREK position off. Did you hold?

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    2. No, I still have the 'long term' position. Let's face it, at some point Greece will recover. We just don't know when. The index may sell off another -50% before that happens, so it's a small position. On the other hand, the index could spike +50% at any time. I plan to trade around the core position.

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  81. GGAL - So how do you like this one now?

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  82. Aluminum - The auto industry is going to be using more of this material I think, in order to meet CO2 emissions requirements. Aluminum is about the easiest to recycle as well, as opposed to plastic and resinous composites.

    So keep an eye on this, I'm not counting it out. Maybe it has run too far and due for a smackdown, similar to oilers?

    Oil and gas storage tanks might be worth a look, someone needs to store these cheap hydrocarbons when prices are low so they can release them back into the market at higher prices?

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  83. Mandatory automatic proximity braking! Oh boy, this is gonna be fun.... now the guy behind me is at my mercy, he,he,he....
    Chrysler and Ford tied market share in Mexico, Nissan and GM were clear winners.

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  84. "EPI analysis found that the monthly costs associated with "an adequate standard of living" in St. Louis include $830 for housing, $754 for food, $959 for child care, $607 for transportation, $1,457 for healthcare, $405 for other necessities, and $377 in taxes, for a grand total of $5,389 a month."

    My property taxes are about equal to my power bill.

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  85. “I would like to remind you that in a few days on January 27, it is the 70th anniversary of the liberation of Auschwitz. As the Red Army soldiers liberated the camp, they were confronted with a gruesome sight.”

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  86. Here's the global growth forecast, given the negative correlation capital markets should rally for the next two decades as the turnaround remains out of reach?

    http://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2015/01/21/imfr-j21.html

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  87. The situation described should be really bullish for Greek and European equities, no?
    http://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2015/01/24/pers-j24.html

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  88. GFED - What makes this one too expensive?

    ReplyDelete
  89. Replies
    1. Keep an eye on DB, not sure if you have some. Could get interesting?

      Delete
    2. FCAU is my best girlfriend this year and she'd doing more than trying

      Delete
  90. TOF - 1/2 of flights cancelled for LaGuardia, you're missing the return of winter!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Honestly when I see that it makes me wish it. Snow is the best part about winter. Nothing more peaceful than walking outside in a big snowstorm. The really cold weather is a drag.

      Delete
    2. I enjoy a good snowstorm too, for a few days and esp while it's coming down. Don't care for the mud, ice, slush, and especially the salt everywhere, that's the straw that really ruins it for me b/c salt tears everything up, including my shoes.

      A pair of shoes here lasts half as long, LOL

      DECK?

      Delete
  91. I picked up some RENN today. This is an interesting one. Their main business is dying but they have over 85% of their market cap in cash and have essentially become a VC firm and are focusing on the financial tech space. They did a round of investing in Motif Investing which I think is going to be a huge hit for investors.

    http://blogs.wsj.com/digits/2015/01/20/renren-backs-motif-investing-in-latest-financial-tech-bet/

    ReplyDelete
  92. Read some article (forgot which one it was otherwise I'd share the link) by a guy who thinks MITK is a no brainer because he thinks they will eventually be able to raise prices (his argument was they are saving banks tons of $$ via mobile deposit so they have wiggle room). Not sure what to think about that given the fact they don't necessarily own the patents based on outcome of court case with USAA.

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  93. What I don't get, why should US rates lift given euro rates are so low?

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  94. BTW - Some of us are vacationing in Portugal as I write this, how bizarre is that idea?

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  95. BMW high performance 4 cylinder paint shaker needs a fake sound track played over the stereo speakers to make it sound good, LOL

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  96. F - "the 3.5L Ecoboost V6 in the all-new Ford Raptor will make 450 horsepower (and weigh 500 lbs less)." Good God....

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I'm still trying my best to avoid the huge blunder that was selling a 100% position in FCAU. Eerily reminiscent of selling SNE at $11 or $12 whatever it was...only to see it run 50% in a month.

      Delete
  97. Refueling a hydrogen fueled vehicle requires a 10,000psi pump?

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  98. BAH - We don't like this one, right?

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  99. BXE - What a freeking surprise, still having major difficulty breaking through to $10 Actually, not even able to hang onto any gain whatsoever...... Woooooooooonder what the problem might be, perhaps it's actually a trumped up P&D sham?

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  100. Started buying a small position in Z. Plan on building it up over time. I love this company and have zero justification for its price right now other than to say its really the only game in town and in my opinion the safest player from GOOGL amongst the "smaller" internet players.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Used proceeds from selling DECK.

      Delete
    2. here's an example of what's going on around the country in the real estate market...everything is trending toward Zillow.

      SEATTLE , Jan. 26, 2015 /PRNewswire/ -- Zillow, Inc. (NASDAQ: Z), the leading real estate and home-related information marketplace, today announced Metropolitan Regional Information Systems, Inc. (MRIS), one of the nation's largest multiple listings service (MLS), has passed a board resolution to finalize negotiations with Zillow to join the Zillow® Partnership Platform. Through the Zillow Partnership Platform, MRIS brokers will have the option to send their more than 50,000 residential listings and 8,800 rental listings directly to Zillow as part of the brokers' online marketing activities.
      "We are very excited to create a direct relationship between MRIS and Zillow ," said Spencer Rascoff , Zillow CEO. "This partnership means MRIS's huge inventory of for-sale listings will appear accurately and quickly to the millions of home shoppers using Zillow , and that the brokers and agents who are part of MRIS will have total control over the content of their listings."
      More than 45,000 real estate professionals throughout the Mid-Atlantic region, including Maryland , Virginia , Washington, D.C. and parts of Pennsylvania , Delaware and West Virginia , are customers of MRIS, and facilitate over $125 million a day in real estate transactions.
      "Our brokers retain complete control over their listings and the opportunity to market them as they see fit," said David Charron , president and CEO of MRIS. " Zillow offers reporting data and other services we believe will help our members be more successful, including highlighting the listing agent on every listing and a dedicated customer service team."
      "MRIS's market is very hot right now," said Curt Beardsley , Zillow vice president of industry development. "Inventory is incredibly tight in this region so ensuring listings are up-to-date is a top priority for us. Having high quality listing data helps guarantee consumers have the best experience possible. A new direct data feed helps us not only maintain that great consumer experience, but allows for us to better serve the customers of MRIS."
      Through the Zillow Partnership Platform, real estate agents will be prominently displayed as the listing agent on all of their listings and be able to receive leads directly from Zillow . Brokerages will receive attribution, branding, a link back directly to their website and have daily reporting access. To learn more about the platform email mlspartners@zillow.com or call 206-757-4250.

      Delete
  101. I heard some guy talk about how the oil crash is reminiscent of the nat gas crash in 2009. he said it wouldn't surprise him to see low prices for a long time just like nat gas because supply is really high and new projects are just coming on that will keep supply really high. he said he thinks producers will keep producing because the work to get the wells set up has already been done and the cost to operate them is low enough to break even. i don't know much about this but it does make sense to me strictly from a sentiment standpoint. It was universally common perception that oil prices would remain high indefinitely and as a result i'd have to imagine we had epic overproduction, just like in any prior bubble.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Someone made the comment he would like to see a 1.5% glut of Toyotas so he can get a 60% discount. LOL...

      Delete
    2. You could be right. It's all about the marginal cost of production for wells which have been drilled versus cost price in the short term. And once a well is producing, companies don't want to stop them due to the costs associated with that. The IEA chart showing oil going into storage last week was off the charts high.

      Looking further out, capital spending is being cut as the full cycle cost of many projects can't be justified on the current price of oil, but that will take a couple years to play out.

      I'd think the only way you see oil back up over $100 anytime soon is something blows up in the middle east.

      Delete
    3. $100 oil - So BXE might not rally to $10 in the next few days?

      Delete
  102. Knew I should have bought TGT last year when it was down. At this point it's probably the best big cap play off low oil going forward. The airline have been big winners but I wouldn't be surprised to see TGT do some eye popping numbers this year.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. One of the reasons TGT did so poorly in Canada and is going bankrupt here is because of their lack of a good web site / ecommerce. You'd search for something to buy online and Amazon, WMT, EBAY, Canadian Tire, even Sears would come up, but never TGT. Perhaps they are a lot better down there with their much larger business, but hard to see how any retail does well these days without a web/store strategy.

      Delete
    2. Right, the web site was their downfall,

      Delete
  103. AMZN - These guys delivered their first package to the White house today.

    ReplyDelete
  104. I demand all of my AMZN purchases to same day now.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I think it got tangled up in the Marine One presidential helicopter rotors, sure you want same day despite this drone crash landed?

      Delete
  105. XCO - Nice pop today, thess are like popcorn kernels lately.

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  106. BXE - Pumpers are pretty quiet lately, maybe they're done selling? So soon?

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  107. Slowing Economy - Shouldn't the market rise, the correlation is inverse?

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  108. BXE - New low, sure this one isn't bankrupt? Sure seems that way.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Damn, nearly another dime. This thing has eaten my butt in a big way, I need some serious relief.

      Delete
  109. Monday's 'no worries' reaction to election results in Greece proved to be a classic set-up: suck 'em in, then stomp on 'em! The DJIA is currently down almost -300 points (-1.6%). EEM (Emerging Markets) is down a relatively mild -0.8%, EWZ (Brazil) -0.7%). OIH (Oil Services) and PBR (Petrobras) are in the green.

    (a) I'm taking down all positions (with the exception of a core position in GREK, which is taking a -6% hit as I type!) strictly due to discipline (ie, my 'take' on a continued global rally was wrong, at least within the intended time frame for the trade).
    (b) The dent to the portfolio (led by a -5% loss in FCX [Freeport-McMoran]) was significantly helped by good gains in JCP (+5.2%) and a series of trades in UGAZ (eg, NGas futures up +3% earlier this morning).

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Sure, the indexes may all bounce into end of month window dressing (especially given the recent success of 'buy the dip' strategies). My concern would be bulls trapped by this morning's gap down in the DJIA + SPX, which will tend to cap any rallies.

      Delete
    2. 6% haircut is nothing, BXE does that every day.

      Delete
  110. Replies
    1. Now there's an 'all in' opportunity for you!

      Delete
  111. AKS - Can this move be trusted? I about don't have any cash to work with if I get into this one, BXE has slammed my account so badly.

    ReplyDelete
  112. Consumer confidence super high. Is this considered an indicator of market top?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. "Consumer confidence super high. Is this considered an indicator of market top?"

      Could be...at least in the near / medium term. The struggle for me is trying to find stocks that do well should the economy still stay strong but the market weak. We've had quite a few "weak" econ reports in January so its no surprise to me to see this weakness in the market. But weak is a relative term vs Q3 2014 reports. They're still fairly solid excluding today's report.

      Something is up in the whole convenience store / truck stop segment. I own TA which is basically flat today. But look at PTRY. They had an all cash buyout offer for $36.75. I just looked at the last trade which was $36.81. Additionally Gabelli took a 5% or 6% stake in the company AFTER the buyout. Seems to me the market is sniffing out another deal. This entire space is cheap in my opinion and a major beneficiary of low oil...fuel margins are rising but on top of them its been shown that people spend all of their oil savings on food at fast food joints, QSRs, and convenience stores. TA owns like 300 c-stores and 360 QSRs.

      Delete
    2. http://www.cnbc.com/id/102351843#.

      Delete
    3. Yeah, I guess I'll wait just in case, it seems prices keep moving down.

      Delete
  113. This and last week's buyers left holding the bag..... Surprise!

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  114. Added some more Z today on the dip.

    ReplyDelete
  115. Back in long GREK at $12.06

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. tiny position. might add a little more later.

      Delete
  116. Monday's 'no worries' reaction to election results in Greece proved to be a classic set-up: suck 'em in, then stomp on 'em!

    > Have to say, i was buying it. Made me think Greece would be a non issue and we were starting the next leg up.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hey maybe we close green today and do get what you thought...

      Delete
  117. "In the last few weeks, speculation that Google should or will make another big acquisition also popped up again, with Twitter Inc. (TWTR) cited a few times again as a likely candidate. Peck told CNBC last week that "it's not lost on Google that Twitter is the best real-time search engine out there,""

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Google is going to have to buy them at some point. Think about if they got into real time deals for hotels or anything else. you could just search San Fran Hotels and find all deals related to it. lots of stuff they could do. but issue is valuation i guess. mkt cap is $25 B and buyout would have to be like $40 B or more. however, it’s not that much more expensive than when GOOGL went public. GOOGL had a $54 Billion mkt cap and did $3 Billion in revenues. TWTR is on pace for $1.4 Billion in 2014. Additionally, TWTR has higher margins at 64% vs GOOGL at 54% at time of IPO

      Delete