Wednesday, January 28, 2015

1/28/15 It's just a shot away

The most likely reaction to FOMC will be a rally in US indexes.  Not so sure that will be the case today.  What this market really needs (in order to move on to new highs) is a well-deserved rest.  I hope we get one.

131 comments:

  1. Interview with Francis Chou - you can tell he's got a good system and just follows it:

    http://m.gurufocus.com/news_read.php?id=310877

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  2. Wow - AAPL rocking it this morning.

    Funny coincidence, went to my massage guy yesterday and we got talking about stocks a bit, and he said that the 1 stock he really wished he had bought was AAPL. Not sure it means anything other than everyone know about AAPL, but you could take it as there's no-one left who doesn't know the AAPL story, so stock growth will have to come from business growth, not new investors.

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  3. Replies
    1. per Cashin, UBS

      Greek Markets In Turmoil – Things in Athens continue borderline chaotic. The Greek stock market is down the
      equivalent of 2500 Dow points since Friday. Here's a nice synopsis from my friend Peter Boockvar over at the
      Lindsey Group:
      Any thought of pragmatism from the newly elected Greek government is quickly being thrown out the
      window. But, when you elect Marxists, this I guess is what you get. Greek capital markets are under
      major stress again today as they are losing faith that the negotiated process from here on with debts
      and budgets will go smoothly. The Athens stock market is down by another 8% and lower by 14% in
      just 3 days. Greek banks are down by 17-20% today alone. The 3 yr note yield is higher by 295 bps to
      16.98% vs 10.1% as of Friday’s close. Greek 5 yr CDS is wider by 40 bps and has risen by 400 bps over
      the past three days. Alexis Tsipras held his first cabinet meeting today and pledged four priorities: 1)a
      return to dignity for the Greek people, 2)help the economy, 3)renegotiate Greek debt, 4)Get rid of
      corruption in government. He also wants to bring back a higher minimum wage just when the Greek
      economy needs to get more competitive. He wants to hire more government workers just as they have
      too many and he wants to freeze plans for privatizations just as the private sector is most needed. With
      respect to what everyone is most focused on, debt renegotiations, Tsipras today said “we do not want
      an extreme catastrophic clash…we do not want to go to mutually assured destruction but we won’t
      continue being subservient.”

      Delete
    2. It's going to be interesting - was reading through the Greek newspaper - ekathimerini.com and lots of opinions.

      In the grand scheme of things, Greece is so minor (11 million of 350 million people), but its the precedent people are worried about. Ireland made a good turnaround even with their high debt, but they have a productive, open economy - that's what Greece really needs.

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  4. Sold my TUP today at $66. Added some more Z at $99.3 and GREK at $10.7. All small positions.

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    Replies
    1. Nice one - getting back on track

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    2. Slowly but surely. Still a nasty market.

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    3. Shiller agrees

      http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-01-27/nobel-prize-winning-economist-says-it-s-time-to-buy-greek-stocks

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  5. TXT/BC/FCAU - All luxury brand manufacturers.
    COH - What about this one?
    FCAU I can't imagine ever selling this one, except for going to wherever the luxury names go.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I like COH. Issue is its going through a transition period but valuation is pretty low. My wife said she doesn't think Coach products are out of favor at all. Last time she said this was when TLYS was at $8 and when DECK was at $30.

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  6. BXE - As is customary, another $0.20 haircut What a great pick!

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    Replies
    1. I suppose my question is, with all due respect, where was your stop when you purchased and where is your stop now if any?

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    2. My stop was $8, actually. I drank the wrong kool aid now I'm dying. :(

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  7. BB, thanks for the Chou article, working thru it.

    You and TOF use gurufocus a lot and I seem to like the information there myself, do either of you supscibe to the premium service and find it worthwhile?

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    Replies
    1. T3 - I actually do subscribe to the premium service for Gurufocus. I like being able to see the bottom set of ratios on the 10 year financials that they have grayed out for the free users. It helps give me a point of reference for historical valuation ranges a company has gone through. I figure it saves me enough time to make it worth my while.

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    2. Also I think you can get screeners that you otherwise can't get as a free member, like the Joel Greenblatt screens which I have found a few things from like TUP.

      Delete
  8. Added some more GREK at $10.69. Down 40% in 5 weeks is my kind of buyable move.

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    Replies
    1. Added a significant chunk over the past hour to GREK. Now about a 15% position. Just a hunch but feels like exhaustion on the downside to me.

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    2. Also I think you can get screeners that you otherwise can't get as a free member, like the Joel Greenblatt screens which I have found a few things from like TUP.

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    3. Got my average down to $10.83. Let's see how this pans out. I'm hoping for an intraday reversal today...maybe close around $11.20...then move to highs from a few days ago for a 20% to 25% move.

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  9. Commodities tend to fall through their butt hole when the economy is growing, right?

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    Replies
    1. Not sure...it has more to do with the dollar in my opinion. I saw this move in the dollar coming from a mile away but didn't think through the implications of it properly. I figured the best way to play it was UUP which was ok but DWTI was a career making move.

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  10. Line in sand: was today a near term bottom?

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  11. Original Seasonality Timing System 012615

    What follows are the three rules that make up the Seasonality Timing System. I retrieved them from the May 2001 issue of Mutual Funds Magazine, the last time I saw the magazine provide a full-scale review of this timing model.
    The first two rules outline the two types of seasonality that the system hopes to exploit, while the third deals with exceptions:

    1) To exploit positive seasonality around the turns of each month: Buy at the close of the third-to-last trading of each month, and sell at the close of the fifth trading session of the following month

    2) To exploit positive pre-holiday seasonality: Buy at the close of the third-to-last trading day prior to exchange holidays, and sell at the close of the last trading day before a holiday.

    3) Exceptions: If the holiday falls on a Thursday, sell at Friday's close rather than Wednesday's. Also, if the last day before a holiday is the first trading day of the week, don't sell until the day after the holiday. Finally, never sell on the first trading day after options expire; instead wait an extra day.

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  12. "Investors are dumping Greek equities today and bond prices are weakening as newly-formed leftist leadership stokes fear that the Hellenes could leave the Eurozone or default on debt.
    The spread between the Greek 10-year bond and its German equivalent widened to more than 10 points in recent trading. The yield on two-year debt rose by nearly 3 percentage points to more than 16.5%, The Wall Street Journal reports.
    The Global X FTSE Greece 20 ETF ( GREK) was down 11%, while the Vanguard FTSE Emerging Market ETF ( VWO) was off by 0.4%. In U.S. trading, shares of Greek banks are plummeting: Eurobank Ergasias ( EGFEY) catapulted 24% lower to 0.06 cents in U.S. trading. Alpha Bank ( ALBKY) is down 19%, Piraeus Bank ( BPIRY) is down 35% and National Bank of Greece ( NBG) is down 23%."

    Lets think this through:

    The new government hates austerity and are forcing the ECB's hand. They're done imposing harsh conditions on themselves. They're against nationalizing stuff, reversing several nationalization plans for ports etc in the past 3 days. This is EXTREMELY positive for their equity markets in my opinion. They're basically saying we are pro business. If the ECB doesn't want us then we will move back to our own currency and devalue it to wipe away debt. In both scenarios (ECB gives in or they move to their own currency) its a huge positive for their stocks.

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    Replies
    1. They are actually cancelling the selling / privatization of port, etc. Other things they are talking is raising minimum wage, rehiring laid off civil servants, restoring pensions. Not business friendly moves. They are taking about trying to clean up the corruption in Greece, which be a huge pro-business thing to do, but they've talked about this for years and it seems too ingrained.

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    2. I'm not commenting on whether or not GREK is a good buy here, but the biggest concern I have about Greece in general is I truly don't think they have a competitive economy other than in a few areas like tourism and shipping. I think that a lot of economic growth they got since year 2000 when they joined the ECB was debt fueled and wasted, and without that debt support, the economy would be much smaller than now. IN 2000, GDP was around $125 million and, even though it has come down a lot, it is still double what it was back then. If they do leave the Euro, I think things gets much worse (as people won't want Drachma'sand they have a tough time buying imports for even necessities like fuel and food.

      "Indeed, Greece has spent approximately half of the 182 years since it achieved independence from the Ottoman Empire in a state of default and therefore denied access to international capital markets"

      In my previous readings, a lot of average Greek people were hoping the ECB could force the Greek government to reform properly as they did not seem to be able to do so internally. Seems like vested interests are going to be too strong even for that.

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    3. Its seems to me that moving away from austerity and layoffs toward the other end of the spectrum is pro business but I could be wrong. At the very least forcing the ECB to reduce debt or else moving back to the Drachma would have a positive impact on their equity markets. Getting timing right is key though if I'm looking to trade it. Longer term (ie longer than my time horizon) I think it makes sense to begin buying what most likely will amount to short term panic by sellers not looking at the longer term picture and considering an eventual return to prosperity.

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    4. Seems like a timing issue. It would be interesting if those countries who agreed to remain in the EZ have public debt forgiven, wow. Germany had their e11B WWII loan forgiven when they entered the EZ.

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    5. Maybe Europe can resolve who has morning bathroom rights within the next 5 or so years? Meanwhile I guess GREK hits some kind of bottom as Greece receives another loan for remaining in the EZ, then GREK retraces some portion of the chart?

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    6. extend and pretend?

      http://syriza.net.gr/index.php/en/pressroom/253-open-letter-to-the-german-readers-that-which-you-were-never-told-about-greece

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    7. “Men are so quick to blame the gods: they say that
      we devise their misery. But they themselves- in their
      depravity- design grief greater than the griefs that
      fate assigns.”
      -Homer, The Odyssey
      There is a battle brewing upon the Continent of
      Europe and, as in ancient days of lore, it will be won
      by the Greeks. Make no mistake, Greece will be the
      victor!
      It would be a wonderful story and a grand conspiracy
      theory to think that there was some architect of all of
      this. To imagine some oligarch, someone chosen by
      the ancient gods, that was behind it all but I do not
      believe that is the case. It may be that Zeus and the
      rest fashioned all of this and whispered hints to
      various politicians. Who am I to say? Who am I to
      know the will of the gods?
      The new government in Athens is to the left but that
      is rather incidental in my estimation. The platform of
      Mr. Tsipras and his friends, that won the election, had
      little to do with being left or right or centered. It had
      everything to do with being Greek. The platform was
      nationalistic; Greece run by the Greeks with policies
      decided and implemented by the Greeks and the rest
      of Europe could find its way to Hades on their own.
      The coalition, necessitated by the lack of an out and
      out majority, demonstrates my point. It is the left and
      the right and the common cause is the ending of
      economic and social decisions directed by
      foreigners. Europe has already floated the “extend
      and pretend” olive branch but that is not a stick that
      the new government is going to accept.
      The power mongers in Berlin, Brussels and in
      Washington D.C. at the IMF made their beds long ago
      and now they are going to have to lie in them. The
      luxurious linens have become brambles over time
      and the incredibly poor decisions that were made
      have come home and the price will get paid. The
      prize was a European Union that included everyone
      possible. The goal of some was a third try for
      domination with Berlin at the center. The forces used
      were not weapons but money and so the Greek
      demands should come as no surprise to anyone.
      What was gained by wealth must be sustained by
      wealth or someone will cut the cord. Greece is
      demanding a larger share of wealth than already
      given by the forgiveness of debt and it will either be
      that I am afraid or the curtailing of German ambitions.
      “All things are in the hand of heaven, and Folly,
      eldest of Jove's daughters, shuts men's eyes to their
      destruction. She walks delicately, not on the solid
      earth, but hovers over the heads of men to make
      them stumble or to ensnare them.”
      -Homer, The Iliad
      If there is one thing that can be said, in my opinion,
      with some certainty about the Greek elections is that
      it was based upon nationalism. There is quite real
      anger in Athens and elsewhere in Greece that foreign
      dignitaries are trying to impose their far different
      standards, ethics and demands upon the Greek
      people. It is fitting, I suppose, that the break in
      European unity begins in the birthplace of
      Democracy as a growing amount of citizens in
      Europe just are not happy with foreign imposition.
      This tide is swelling in Spain, Britain, Portugal and
      Italy. The biggest threat to the continuation of the
      European Union now resides in the “will of the
      people” and it is in upcoming elections and then the
      consequences of them where the Fates will flourish
      and the fate of Europe will be decided.
      “Generations of men are like the leaves. In winter,
      winds blow them down to earth, but then, when
      spring season comes again, the budding wood grows
      more. And so with men: one generation grows,
      another dies away.”
      -Homer, The Iliad

      Delete
    8. I am romantic enough, in my own fashion, to imagine
      that the gods of olde are behind all of this. The Troika
      has given Greece so much money, so much wealth to
      entice them in, to keep them in, to hold them in, that
      Greece is really in a no-lose position. It will be debt
      forgiveness in the end or back to the Drachma, no
      debt at all, as they default, a huge hit taken by the
      ECB and other central banks and a do-over for
      Greece. Their main business is tourism after all and
      they would be the cheapest destination on the
      Continent and no debt to be re-paid to anyone. Those
      that claim the economy would be devastated I believe
      are incorrect and as the Greek banks would default
      along with the nation there would be no debt left to
      pay in the financial institutions either.
      “Come, weave us a scheme so I can pay them back!
      Stand beside me, Athena, fire me with daring, fierce
      as the day we ripped Troy's glittering crown of
      towers down.”
      -Homer, The Odyssey
      You may expect shouts and screams and all manner
      of hand wringing and finger pointing. Prepare
      yourselves for curses and threats and all types of
      acts that provide the defamation of characters. There
      will be vengeance and every possible gesture made
      but in the end, the very end, Germany and her allies

      will probably fade and grudgingly use the coins of
      the realm one more time to keep Greece in the fold.
      The Greeks have rolled out the Trojan Horse once
      again and one more time it was pulled into the city.
      “I know not what the future holds, but I know who
      holds the future.”
      -Homer
      As do I and it is the people of Greece. Long live
      Odysseus!

      Delete
  13. BABA - Today's issue is a large majority of the merchandise is supposedly counterfeit.

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  14. Re Gurufocus, I don't have the premium membership. Morningstar also has a very good free site and I find between the 2 of them, I get most of what I want.

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  15. Treasury rate flattened, must be the FED notes?

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  16. BB - Just to clarify about the Greek situation that I think is unfolding: if you read about this Tsipras guy you will know he's actually pretty pro business. I think what he's saying is let's halt everything and go after a reduction of debt first. If we can get that then we need to attempt to get better prices for our ports and other projects that were previously attempted to be nationalized at absurdly low prices. So on the surface moving away from privatization looks bad but I have a feeling based on his comments and his background that he ultimately is looking for fair selling prices.

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  17. Man these low commodities prices must be creating an economic windfall for Canada and South America,these guys are sprouting superweed green shoots from their ears.

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  18. Replies
    1. Does Canada have some kind of max down rule, the price seems to drop by the same amount daily.

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    2. FWIW

      Bellatrix Exploration

      Since the beginning of October, Orange Capital, LLC has been loading up on shares of Bellatrix Exploration (NYSE:BXE). Orange, who is now well over a 10% owner of the company, continues to add shares with it most recently adding some on January 15th. Bellatrix now represents over 8% of Orange's portfolio and continues to grow. Some of the management has also picked up shares in the past few months according to CanadianInsider.com. In fact, on Jan 23rd, the VP of operations just picked up another 2,500 shares. Below is a chart of the purchase transactions, Orange making up most of them buying on nearly a weekly basis.

      Delete
    3. Yeah thanks. 2500 shares is about 1/100,000 of this guy's salary no doubt. I don't know why they bother mentioning that it's an insult, lol

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    4. Wow, today's a very special day for BXE, down 40 cents....... Oh boy do I regret this idea.

      Delete
  19. CP - Full disclosure on COH, I own some so I'm biased. I think they're going through a rough patch right now but if they stabilize and turn things back around then the business is cheap. It trades at 10X the average FCF for the past 5 years. Before now it previously traded between 12 and 21 times FCF over the past 7 years so lots of upside if they can right the ship.

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    Replies
    1. decent yield plus squeezing btw 50 and 200 dma

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    2. Right. Good yield, low p/FCF, solid balance sheet. Hopefully they can stabilize things but if they don't I think it's a fairly low risk stock. Similar in some ways to TUP.

      Delete
  20. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  21. Nobody posted this today might be they'd rather post about how they could care less about your money:

    Saudi minister reiterated they have no plans to cut production.

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  22. Closing HDGE @ 11.87 (+1.62%). In a range-bound market which seemingly exhibits no memory day to day (and anything can/will happen), I'll take gains when I have them.

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  23. (a) Crude oil futures <45.
    (b) OIH (Oil Services) -5%, XLE (Energy) -4%.
    (c) TLT (the long bond) +2%, as the yield on the 30-yr Treasury falls below 2.3% for the first time in history.
    (d) EEM (Emerging Markets) -1.2%, EWZ (Brazil) -2.6%, PBR (Petrobras) -11.4% (as investors punish the company for failing to reveal the amount of the write-down linked to the corruption scandal).
    (e) DJIA -1%, SPX -1.26%.
    (f) GREK (Greece) off another -11%.

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  24. FCAU - Three consecutive down days, not very inspiring.

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  25. Reopening positions in RYWVX (Rydex 2x Emerging Markets), RYEIX (Rydex Energy), RYVIX (Rydex Oil Services) and RYPMX (Rydex Precious Metals) at the close. Why? Basically, because buying panic is what I do.

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  26. Oh no way, US rates will never move lower, no way man..... Everyone would much rather hide out in Greek notes, lol.....

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  27. Re Greece, extend and pretend is what worked in South America when they had their problems. Basically , keep the debt whole, but minimize interest and let the country grow out its problems.

    I read Tsipras letter and it sounds not unreasonable, except that he is saying the same things the governments before him said.

    "Dear readers, I understand that, behind your 'demand' that our government fulfills all of its 'contractual obligations' hides the fear that, if you let us Greeks some breathing space, we shall return to our bad, old ways. I acknowledge this anxiety. However, let me say that it was not SYRIZA that incubated the cleptocracy which today pretends to strive for 'reforms', as long as these 'reforms' do not affect their ill-gotten privileges. We are ready and willing to introduce major reforms for which we are now seeking a mandate to implement from the Greek electorate, naturally in collaboration with our European partners."

    The above is really the big problem in Greece, and people have been trying to fix it for years without success. Maybe he can do it, but I honestly have my doubts.

    I also wonder if the German's and EU don't justwant the Greeks out of the EU. Greece lied to get in about meeting the requirements, have not seemed to live up to their bargains and aren't really economically up to EU standards. Everyone has had a few years to prepare for this now. Why not just negotiate hard and let Greece take themselves out?

    Below is from Reuters and why I see him as more socialist:

    The government, installed within 48 hours of Sunday's win, is expected to pursue social welfare policies such as handing out free electricity and food stamps to the poor and cutting heating oil prices, alongside a crackdown on tax evasion.

    On the labor front, Tsipras is expected to reverse a cut to the minimum wage and restore collective bargaining agreements abolished under the bailout out deal, as well as instituting a 5-billion-euro plan of incentives for firms to hire workers.

    As well as reviewing privatization plans, Syriza officials have also promised to take on business tycoons, though in the run-up to the vote they said little about whether they will implement earlier pledges to slap new taxes on big Greek shipowners.

    Tsipras has also promised that he will scrap unpopular crisis-era taxes, prompting critics to question how he will be able to afford his lavish social spending while battling depleting cash coffers and exasperated foreign lenders.

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  28. "green initiatives" - Man I could just puke if I hear this terminology again like 10,000 times a day.

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  29. Regarding the broad markets, it sure seems like we've had a lot of bad days lately to only be 5% off all-time highs.

    If the Presidential Cycle is going to play out at all this year, we're going to have to see things turning around pretty soon.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I guess the presidential cycle reflects upon the sentiment towards DC, trying to recall the election 8 years ago didn't seem the candidates were in sync with the economy or current events, lots of clueless jaws hanging open.

      Another thing, why is it they always exit with gray hair?

      Delete
    2. From Ryan Detrick, the 6 month period starting Nov, Dec, and Jan has been up 16 of 16 times with average return around 15%.

      Might not happen this time, but Obama seems to be in campaign mode and I'm sure the republicans are too. Time for goodies for the economy, not tightening and tough decisions.

      http://stocktwits.com/RyanDetrick/message/26670358

      Delete
  30. DB - Here we go, bottom trend line again. Pretty damn weak stock in a severe downtrend, this one is. BSBR has twice as many employees and half the market cap, pays a dividend to boot.

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  31. X had a good day today up 10%. I think these pseudo-commodity stocks where they are not mining, but producing things like Steel and Aluminum do well as the economy grows and the cost of inputs has fallen.

    I still own Steel fabricator CAM.TO and it's my 8th largest position

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    Replies
    1. I wasn't following X, I was watching AKS, it was choking.

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    2. Strange pair - must have been the earnngs vs. expaectationg were a lot better at X

      Delete
  32. VNM ?Chinese oligarchs are hanging out in Vietnam and Philippines in response to Macaw crackdowns against their bad habits.

    Chart looks like total shit.

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  33. 7,000 homeless living in San Francisco

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  34. Tons of capital is flowing into political campaign contributions, Koch brothers are ponying up $1B

    Okay, I don't recall those stocks, CBS or something?

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  35. This guy has been taking notes from the earnings reports:
    http://skrisiloff.tumblr.com/post/108924356895/this-is-what-ceos-are-saying-about-the-economy

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Good link, thanks.

      another interesting one:
      http://avondaleam.com/after-three-years-of-double-digit-gains/

      Delete
  36. IBKC/BOKF/BOCH/FUNC/KRE - Regional banks not doing so well, has the consumer slammed his wallet shut?

    Or, maybe AAPL was Christmas, Valentines, Birthday, Halloween, Hanuka?

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  37. I've looked at a number of the regional banks as a lot of the value guys seem to like them. But everyone I've looked at seems to be expensive. I think people must be expecting higher profitability then current because the last cycle was so much better, but I wonder if there aren't too many banks now given the level of business. So far, I am staying away. interestingly though, the big banks like the BAC and C, are very cheap. But I see too much risk in them.

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    Replies
    1. I agree with this. I was looking closely at IBKC and a few others and it seems to me that IBKC has been overpriced for a long time. Granted banks will look overpriced with interest rates at 0 because earnings are significantly below what they would be with higher rates...if they ever come.

      Delete
  38. Mark,

    Not sure if you are trading these days, but my kitchen is done, just having the fireplace installed today then a bit of drywall and paint and the greatroom will be finished.

    But one nice thing I found - got some lumber this week and they finally got rid of those dumb staples to hold on the UPC code and replace it with a sticker. Such a simple idea, but so much nicer, can't believe it took them so long to figure out!

    ReplyDelete
  39. DB - I shoulda gone all in y-day and flipped it today............... Ugh, but who knew?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. PLaying earnings is a crap shoot - can go either way

      Delete
  40. PAL - Holding up pretty well, considering. Should also have taken another 70% haircut along with everything else..

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  41. Greece has a really good point of view though, austerity as dictated wasn't working?

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  42. Hey BB- I'm here all the time. Just busy with other things. Luckily we don't get those freaking stupid tags on the lumber we use.

    Still trying to get back into the swing of things.

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  43. BABA - Ouchie Chinese government was hiding their accusation.

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  44. MITK day. It's already run up a lot so it's gonna be tough.

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  45. TOF,

    another nice winner today with COH. TUP yesterday. NIce going

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    Replies
    1. Thanks. Still a tough market for me because they were both only 7% positions. I'm bleeding with AFL, Z and a few others. I sold COH and GREK.

      Delete
  46. The valuation of FCAU is no longer as compelling as I once thought if the market is only willing to pay 8x earnings for F & GM and both of those pay a 3%+ dividend. Just not as compelling of a stock. Here's my quick math on it:

    Ferrari - $260 Million Net After Tax Profit
    assume a 30% rise in production results in 30% rise in profits
    Results in approx $340 Million Net Profits
    Assume a 45x multiple which is aggressive so $15.3 Billion
    Remaining Piece of FCAU estimated to generate about $1 Billion Net Profit. Apply a 9x multiple you get $9 Billion. That may be aggressive if F & GM are trading at same multiple but offer a sizable dividend.

    Combine the two and you get a $24 Billion market cap. Market cap right now is $22 Billion or so fully diluted.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I think you are being overly generous re Ferrari, but even at 20 p/e, gives $6.8 billion

      But the other side is improving profitability in the main company. F generated $6.2 billion profit on $145 billion sales. FCAU has $1.2 billion profit on $105 billion sales. Assuming they can improve margins up to F's level, would be $5 billion in profit, so put a 9 p/e on that and you have $45 billion + $6 billion for Ferrari, so over $50 billion market cap, so more than a double.

      The are guiding for the $1 billionish for 2015, but I think they have better opportunities to improve margins over the next few years than F does, so should get a higher multiple now, then more in line as things actually do improve.

      Definitely not as good value now as when we were buying in the $10's, but they are executing well and I could see a 20% year this year and grow into a double over a few years.

      Delete
    2. The key is assuming an ability to grow margins over time. You would have thought with a dynamite year for Jeep and Maserati that margins would have expanded but they actually contracted. And they guided for more of the same in 2015. Additionally they suggested that the Ferrari IPO wouldn't be until later in the year. I wouldn't be surprised to see it stall here for a good while and perhaps run up into the Ferrari IPO...maybe a month or so out.

      Delete
  47. Anyone else see the earnings out of PTRY today. These were absurdly good. That bodes well for TA which I own.

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    1. Damn I can't believe these #'s.

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  48. Hopped back into YRCW at $16.1. Only a 7% position but I figure they have got to be a major beneficiary of low oil. I don't quite understand why it would be down so much other than they are losing gobs of money and have a horrible balance sheet (ha!) but I think the odds of a decent bounce heading into earnings after a 30% drop this year alone are good.

    If it falls below $15.4 I'm out.

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  49. BXE - Pretty sure I posted the $1.90 target some days ago, it's just a target though so could go even lower.
    MTDR - This one I found a few days ago, their properties look interesting.

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  50. TBIO - Here's one for ya......... :)

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  51. Looks like TA caught an upgrade from C with a price target of $17 today. I think that's conservative but I'd take it in this market.

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  52. TA vs SUN - Aren't these pretty much the same thing? I dunno if SUN can shine but maybe?

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    1. Similar companies but I believe the ownership structures are different. Plus TA caters to the truck driver crowd which makes it a bit unique. Its a truck stop operator not a retail gasoline chain. They do much higher throughout per station and their ancillary services in many ways are much more important to their customer than the ancillary services are to the average car driver at a gas station/with convenience store. Truckers have many less options for fueling, parking, showering, etc. Not sure if you saw the WSJ article last week talking about the problem of insufficient overnight parking for truck operators. This is increasingly inuring to the benefit of the truck stops with the most parking (and TA states that they as a chain have the largest parking capacity of any of their chain competitors).

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    2. But having done 3 cross country trips over the past decade, I'm familiar with the TA brand. They're huge plazas typically where they are the only ones on the entire highway stop. They operate over 500 quick service and full time restaurants on their travel centers which is the #1 beneficiary of lower oil. That's predominantly what is working in this market. That and stocks trading at 10 to 13 times earnings with solid balance sheets.

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  53. I started sniffing around the sectors that TUP and COH operate in and one that looks interest is UFPT. I looked into their financials a bit and didn't see anything regarding low fuel costs other than just the cost of shipping. I doubt they would be positively impacted by low oil; however, it's a pretty cheap stock

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  54. LYB/WLK - These guys produce ethylene, the market is saturated. Whoever depends on ethylene as a feedstock now has a huge tailwind. BERY/BLL I guess, and other companies who manufacture products made of plastic.

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    Replies
    1. BERY is a big winner. Probably reflected in the stock price though. I'm convinced the shippers like CNW, SAIA, ARCB, YRCW etc are great entry points if only for a few weeks long trade.

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  55. UPS - Fuel costs have cratered, so I say BS on the selling, whatcha think?

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    1. I think I completely agree. Seems to me its a function of a panicky market and not fundamentally driven. Lower oil is undoubtedly good for those companies. I don't think they will pass on the majority of savings so margins should expand.

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    2. YRCW was actually cash flow and EPS positive last quarter. It's still incredibly risky but the others aren't all that expensive especially if you consider an uptick to earnings due to lower oil. A few of them are taking it on the chin the past 2 days: KNX and SWFT amongst others.

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  56. There appears to have been a major 'shakedown' in all sectors this morning, with OIH/XLE/GDX/EEM all retesting recent lows. There are no guarantees in this game, but it certainly 'feels' like the market wants to move higher (having left weak hands behind).

    (a) DJIA now +165 (reversing an early decline of -55). SPX/NDQ both +0.64%.
    (b) EEM (Emerging Markets) mildly in the red, but +0.7% off earlier lows. GREK (Greece) +6%, rewarding yesterday's intrepid buyers.
    (c) OIH (Oil Services) printed a new 52-wk low this morning, and has now recovered to within -1% of yesterday's close. Selling was less dramatic in in XLE (Energy), reversing well above its 52-wk low and now flat.
    (d) GDX (miners) -1.7%, but this was expected given the strong dollar. The precious metals may in fact have marked the initial leg of a new bull market.

    My 'take' at this point is still bearish- I believe a serious correction is needed to launch markets to new highs. Just trying to play the bounces along the way.

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    1. REXX has been kicking ass, I think their gas is going to smash Canadian producers as the pipeline is open now I think, or close to it.

      Looks like Canada is screwed, and they knew it was coming so tried to make a fake rally and published a lot of misleading data and bullish scenarios to suck in those whomever took the bait.

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    2. And, I suspect the selling we saw was fear of the FED tightening, which didn't happen.

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  57. Pharmacy armed robberies - This could be avoided if pharmacies were banned from selling opiate based pain medication.

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  58. GREK, sold all in morning, had to go and just got back.

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  59. DB - Might be headed to $34 from here, check it out.

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  60. Nice turnaround on GOOGL. DECK got....decked?

    MITK had solid #'s. That looks like a cheap stock, if you can sit through slimy Jimmy's sales presentations on every conference call.

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  61. YRCW- Damn! Surprised to see it back here. When are earnings?

    MITK- .0 EPS?

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  62. TOF, how do you get FCAU market cap of $22 billion?
    Most web sites, including the Fiat one, have it under $17 Billion US (15 billion euro).

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    1. I believe Marketwatch has it correct:
      http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/FCA?CountryCode=IT

      Also, look at their website, I think they don't have the fully diluted shares (assuming 100M share secondary and convertible which I'm not exactly sure how to calc that but I think it's just $2.5 B divided by the convertible price or $2.5B divided by conservatively I used $13 conversion price). So from their site: 1,284,919,505 + 100,000,000 + 192,307,692 = 1,577,227,197. That equates to a $21 Billion market cap at $13.4.

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  63. YRCW - Looks like earnings Feb 5, AMC, Thursday, could run into the event getting some volume here.
    UUP - Hmm, maybe a top?
    WNC - Is it true Blackrock owns $57M of this one?

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    1. Yeah I like YRCW into earnings but if it drops below $15.4 I'll bail.

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  64. EU - Proposal to collect and store for 5 years all air traffic travel/ticket info for each passenger.

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  65. Was looking closer at the PTRY earnings release and am pretty floored by the numbers they did. They boosted fuel margins by 54% last quarter. They do about $1.2 Billion in fuel revenues and $0.45 Billion in merchandise revenue in their convenience stores (so about 75% fuel revenues).

    TA does around 80% fuel revenues per quarter for a total revenue rate of around $2 Billion. Here is TA's margins per gallon for the past 7 quarters:

    Q4 2012 0.157
    Q1 2013 0.158
    Q2 2013 0.175
    Q3 2013 0.179
    Q4 2013 0.169
    Q1 2014 0.188
    Q2 2014 0.193
    Q3 2014 0.193

    Here is PTRY's until last quarter:
    Q1 2013 0.117
    Q2 2013 0.123
    Q3 2013 0.107
    Q4 2013 0.118
    Q1 2014 0.107
    Q2 2014 0.129
    Q3 2014 0.133

    Both had been trending up slightly with Q3 being solid. TA has maintained about a 48 to 53% higher fuel margin per gallon so if you assume this ratio for Q4 then you could see TA do $0.27 to $0.28 per gallon. That seems too high but if you assume those margins then TA could see a boost of $32 Million in operating profit for Q4 (about $0.90 or 0.59 after tax) just from fuel. Additionally, merchandise sales appear to have been helped by the lower oil and it would be logical to see TA experience the same. Last year in Q4 they basically broke even after backing out a one time litigation charge. If you assume a $0.59 boost to after tax income from higher fuel margins, then you arrive at a $0.59 EPS figure for Q4. Again, this seems too high to me but current EPS estimates are at $0.06 which seem really low to me. It seems like this is going to be a blowout quarter for TA.

    TA is an interesting one because they have been spending like crazy to get all of these newly purchased properties fixed up and running well so ultimately this could pay off in the form of better revenues plus a lot of these expenses will be going away. On top of this they're getting a boost to fuel margins and higher consumer spending from oil savings. Q4 and Q1 are usually slower quarters for them but if they can post a big beat like that...even if it's like $0.20 or $0.30...then the total EPS figures for the entire year could be significantly higher than in 2011-13, which averaged around $1.00. I still think this stock gets to at least $20. Plus, the chart is breaking up into blue skies, much like NLS and LNG did a couple of years ago. This could be a good long term one.

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  66. TD has ATD.B in Toronto as a top pick. They are a large convenience store and gas station operator, mainly in the US, and are currently buying PTRY. TA and ATD.B still too expensive for my style, but I can see why people would pay up for them and the stocks could do well this year. For your info, TD also see fuel margins rising:

    "Following up on a strong performance in H1/F15, our fuel margin calculator places the company’s net fuel
    margin at a record $0.26/gallon net of interchange fees ($0.30/gallon gross) for the first 14 weeks of CoucheTard’s
    16-week Q3/F15. We were initially basing our Q3/F15 EPS estimate on $0.153/gallon net
    ($0.200/gallon gross) compared to $0.130/gallon a year ago. Given that significant decline in rack prices, our
    initial estimate seems far too conservative. With the intention of retaining a little conservatism – we find
    Couche-Tard rarely seems to match the industry data at the extremes – we are boosting our Q3/F15 net margin
    estimate to $0.23/gallon ($0.27/gallon gross). This would put our full-year net fuel margins assumption at
    $0.185/gal ($0.228/gal gross).
    Looking further ahead, as long as we do not see oil surge higher – steady increases are more manageable – we
    now believe that annual U.S. net fuel margins can average ~$0.155–$0.160/gallon (~$0.19–$0.20/gal gross) in
    F2016 and F2017.

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  67. A lot of people I know buy stuff through AMZN, this company is putting box stores out of business.

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  68. CBI down 10% on news of a nuclear plant delay - trying to figure out what this really means, but could be a good time to buy

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    1. Ah, nuclear plants... That explains it. Those are on the left end of the smartphone popularity spectrum.

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    2. $34 was my brokers target, just shy of the geometric target. Could go lower.

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  69. Replies
    1. They've knocked the market cap down more than the likely high end hit to earnings from this. Stock is even cheaper now, unless you believe this nuclear issue grows and hurts earnings even more (which is not unheard of for nuclear reactors).

      I'm pretty sure I want to add into this weakness, but suspect we get more selling on Monday after the brokers reduce estimates to reflect this, so I'm watching and waiting for now.

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  70. FAZ - I should've bought this over anything else, along with the SPXS

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  71. US military has 13,000 aircraft, Russian military has 3,000 Russia is the clear leader in rolling vehicles by a wide margin.

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