U-turn on bonds yesterday paid off. TLT
(the long bond) is off another -0.73% today.
At this point, it’s worth a contrarian buy. Opening a small position in RYGBX (Rydex 1.2x
Government Long Bond) at the close.
Gold and Oil. A ‘spoonful’ of either has inspired/informed
geopolitical events for centuries. The
spike in oil is likely to retrace. The
decline in gold/silver prices? I think
they hammered out short-term bottoms on Wednesday and Thursday. Long GDX/GDXJ and reopening
RYPMX (Rydex Precious Metals) at the close.
Also opening a small position in HDGE @ 11.06. Trading at its all-time low.
ReplyDeleteTo be clear: I would wait for a retrace before buying oil.
ReplyDeleteYep, just approaching that $54 resistance, a lower high actually.
DeleteAKS - I thought steel was a dead-duck, doesn't look that way today....
ReplyDeleteGood to see someone thinking the same as me on TWTR regarding video (not necessarily the CEO):
ReplyDeletehttp://calacanis.com/2015/01/07/firing-dick-costolo-from-twitter-would-be-a-huge-mistake/
Bought that Standard Chartered Bank today as well.
ReplyDeleteWhat tweaked me was I saw Tweedy Browne had added to their position last quarter and it is now one of their largest holdings. The price today, even after its recent upmove, is lower than most of last quarter, so my thinking is that if Tweedy Browne thought it was good value at higher prices, it's even better value now.
When I looked into it before, I liked the profile of their company - it is a UK-based bank with proper accounting, but one that primarily does business in Asia/Africa/Middle East. Seems like a good way to build some exposure to those generally faster growing parts of the market. It is also an obviously cheap stock on many metrics like p/b and p/e, but what kept me away was they were going through a bunch of turmoil and trouble with regulators.
So I decided to just ride Tweedy's coattails and follow them with the expectation (hope) that they've done much more due diligence than I did and know what is going on and are right about buying down here into a large position.
I know the bank well in my dealing so with Chinese manufacturers...they're big there
ReplyDeleteThat's good to hear. Even if China slows, it's just their growth rate, not an actual decrease in commerce, so a good place to be doing financing.
DeleteSo, I've got 4 Euro-banks now. My largest holding is ING that I bought in 2013 and its done very well and should continue to do so as they become a dividend payer, but the others - DB, SCBFF and CS - are all down quite a lot from where they've been the last couple of years, all are very cheap, BUT all have issues to deal with which is why they are cheap. My thinking is that, in a similar way that ING dealt with their issues, these other banks will deal with theirs and the stocks will recover. I think the issues are well documented, so the downside should be limited (unless we get more bad news) but there should be good upside assuming they can execute.
David Einhorn bought 2.7% of CBI in the latest 13-F filings - another good one to have onside.
ReplyDeletehttp://seekingalpha.com/news/2299596-zillows-audience-visits-show-solid-growth
ReplyDeleteGEVO - Another great session, thought I'd mention it.
ReplyDeleteCBO - Heavy into LNG infrastructure, right? LNG prices FOB Japan are falling rapidly.....
ReplyDeleteCBI
DeleteCEO of FLWS on bloombergs masters of business. Good interview
ReplyDelete