i bought some BITA at $58. I like that one better only because it moves faster and its cheaper. BABA is still a little too expensive in my opinion. I'd probably buy down around $75 to $80
I like AMZN a lot long term. One thing people don't consider...they're going to be one of the largest shipping companies in the world within 10 years...I'd imagine that would have a negative impact on UPS/Fedex which has benefitted greatly by the boom in e-commerce.
Buying crashes seems to be working pretty well this year. Just obviously have to time it right. Usually have to wait for the bounce and then the second drop. Some ideas to base this off of are GM, DECK, WYNN. That's what I'm looking for in RL and what I'd look for in PIR. These are all solid companies with good earnings supporting them.
In my opinion, the pullbacks in oil, gold, and Emerging Markets this morning should be bought. Positions to consider would be USO (crude futures, off -4% on top of yesterday's -5% decline), GDX (miners are poised to launch, prior to which the custom is to shake off weak hands), and EEM/RYWVX (-1.2%, in addition to a -3% decline in EWZ [Brazil] to a new 52-wk low).
yeah me too. i think there's plenty of room to go up over time though. they're just scratching the surface of what they can do. the native ads thing they're launching is going to put a dent in Youtube ads. here's an example: https://twitter.com/JuddApatow/status/565555698788864000
Meant native video. This is video hosted by Twitter. Their goal is to get people to upload videos to their site so they don't have to post links to Youtube videos (and then lose those viewers). When they start using native videos more and more, advertisers will gravitate toward the platform that people are using more and more.
There's a Goldman tech conf tonight. I think this should be another catalyst.
I agree with you, TWTR has huge potential if they can, or have, put it all together. MSFT is a good example of failure, good software is few and far between despite working on it for 30 years with all that horsepower it still sucks.
Can you tell software engineers piss me off to no end? :)
ha. i think with TWTR you have to take a leap of faith that they will monetize it properly. hard to find a company with $1.4B in revenues growing 100%, with free advertising all around the world ("tweet us at...")...should it be worth less than LNKD, Uber, Instagram, Youtube, etc? Should it be worth 1/7th of FB?
Yes, but are you actually saying you think LNKD, Uber, Instagran, Youtube are all overpriced? Is that a bit like comparing BXE at $8 with CXO at $150 and concluding BXE is worth $10?
And, why do airlines seem so weak? I notice TBT has been on an absolute tear, wouldn't have guessed that except it seems the market is destined to go up so it makes sense from that point of view.
$US - On a tear still as well, this makes US equities attractive I guess as the currency appreciates. This could snowball to a huge dollar rally going forward, especially if the FED increases rates.
Thus, commodities might have more downside in $US
Perhaps airlines suck wind b/c Joe Sixpack on minimum wage doesn't travel on weekends except for maybe to take the kids to Disneyland once or twice in their young ages. Gotta hand it to Disney, they seem to be on a roll, no?
BSBR - What's wrong with this bank, don't they loan in Reals as opposed to $US? If I owed a loan in $US, I'd want to refinance it in Reals at this point...... So BSBR should be in the catbird seat?
Maybe I grossly misunderstand something fundamentally important..........
(a) EEM currently -0.67%, but well off the morning lows. (b) EWZ (Brazil) has cut its intraday losses in half. Morning buys in EWZ/PBR (Petrobras) well in the green. (c) Oil prices have recovered somewhat, along with USO/OIH/XLE, but all ETFs still present an attractive entry at these levels. (d) GDX miners also well off morning lows, and still attractive at these levels. I plan to add a position in RYPMX at the close. Morning buys in SLW (Silver Wheaton) and FCX (Freeport McMoran) in the green. (e) IWM looks ready to break out. Long RYRSX at the close.
Still think we're a month or so away. Seems like we are setting up for one final leg lower. However, if we rally above the recent highs I think it's safer to say the bottom is in.
(a) Note the +2% spike in silver prices at the London open: http://www.kitco.com/charts/livesilver.html (b) Copper futures +2%. Closing FCX (Freeport McMoran) pre-market @ 19.05 for a +4.3% gain. (c) Crude oil +3.1% and back above 50. Closing PRB (Petrobras) pre-market @ 6.40 for a +6.3% gain. (d) EEM (Emerging Markets) pre-market bid +1.2%. (e) EWZ (Brazil) pre-market bid +1.1%. Ibovespa +1.3%. (f) Europe in full rally mode. (g) IWM (Russell 2000) pre-market bid +0.7%. (h) With the positive spikes in US index futures, TLT (the long bond) is in fact off -0.9%, so I dodged a bullet with my last-minute switch at yesterday’s close.
I gotta say, that CEO of TWTR is pretty bad. I listened to their presentation last night at the GS tech conference and he's gotta be one of the worst presenters I've listened to. Having said that, though, the company will go higher with or without him. They need a visionary there to turn it into a FB which it has the potential to be.
Is he the s/w developer type, not a businessman? Maybe he was avoiding over promising or just a dud? Man, how do those duds get appointed CEO..............
KInd of crappy numbers out of lifeco's MFC and SLF this morning. Still a tough environment for them, but with things looking to get better with higher rates and a stronger economy and good demogaphics tailwinds, we should see earnings improving. And because the market is what it is, it will pay a higher valuation on these improving earnings instead of buying them when they are down and push the stocks up significantly - at least that is my theory - the market doesn't always do what I think it should for some strange reason.
How do higher rates make their balance sheets look, doesn't the value of their debt change? They've been buying low return paper for several years now, right?.
FCAU at new highs today, but GM has also made a nice move up over $38. With GM, you have less upside than FCAU, but you've got a better balance sheet, an activist investor, strong stock holders in Buffet and Tepper, new cars that are being well received and pretty good management in Barra.
My GM position isn't as large as FCAU, but still a good sized one. And it looks like the market is going to be rewarding them both this year.
(a) Closing USO (crude oil) here at the day’s high for a +4% gain. (b) Closing GDX (miners) @ 22.2x for a +1.4% gain. RYPMX (Rydex Precious Metals) likely to close end of day with a similar gain. (c) Closing SLW (Silver Wheaton) @ 22.5x for a +3% gain. (d) Closing CAF (China ‘A’ shares) @ 30.5x for a +1.2% gain. (e) Closing OIH (Oil Services) for a +0.5% gain (somewhat disappointing with crude +4%). (f) RYWVX (Rydex 2x Emerging Markets) closed the 1030 est window +2.42%. I left a lot on the table. The fund will probably close the day north of +4%. (g) RYRSX (Rydex 2x Russell 2000) closed the 1030 est window +1.66% (versus a probable +2.2% at session close).
+2.15% gain for the port. Underinvested fund managers may well chase all of the above positions higher Friday morning, but that’s not my style. We all know ‘speed kills.’ When trading, greed kills.
TLT bounces off the 61.8% ‘Fibonacci’ retracement again today. Opening RYGBX (Rydex 1.2x Government Long Bond) at the close. There’s moderate risk attached to the trade, so keeping it small.
Fiat Chrysler Automobiles (NYSE:FCAU): FCAU is Pabrai's largest individual stock position at 29.16% of the US long portfolio. It was established this quarter at prices between $8.74 and $13.61 and the stock currently trades at $14.47. On October 13, 2014 Fiat Chrysler had an IPO on the New York Stock Exchange and Pabrai established the position soon after. The stock has had a stunning performance returning over 60% in the last four months.
Vrooommm.... Hopefully there's some mileage in the luxury brands. Lambo and Ferrari are incredible IMO, and Alpha's legacy to me especially, is intriguing.
This market is doing a great job offering up some interesting opportunities this year. From WYNN, GOOGL, FCAU, DECK, RL, GM, YELP, and a bunch of others. AXP seems to be the next one.
I've got a buy in for Standard Chartered (SCBFF), the UK bank that does a lot of business in developing countries. It's a thinly traded ADR, so tough to get a fill, but hopefully today.
Been thinking about RL as well although not sure if it is done selling yet or what a good buy level would be.
ANother one is Credit Suiss - the Swiss bank. It's had a big pop the last couple days, but still is way down from the last couple of years and cheap and I like what management is saying.
Sold 10% of US commercial insurer ORI (one of my largest holdings) and put the money into CS. Even though CS has had a good bounce and I hate buying up, I can justify it in my mind as ORI has done better over the last month, so I can feel I'm selling even higher!
As usual for me, about a 1/3 position to start and I'll look to add on weakness.
Is the Wicker Rocket back in play?? PIR
My broker has a $10 price objective on it, not making a call myself.
ReplyDeleteBABA - Should we buy this one? Surely it goes back up eventually?
ReplyDeletei bought some BITA at $58. I like that one better only because it moves faster and its cheaper. BABA is still a little too expensive in my opinion. I'd probably buy down around $75 to $80
DeleteAMZN looks cheaper than BABA on p/s, and it's better established in a country that is much sneakier.
DeleteI like AMZN a lot long term. One thing people don't consider...they're going to be one of the largest shipping companies in the world within 10 years...I'd imagine that would have a negative impact on UPS/Fedex which has benefitted greatly by the boom in e-commerce.
DeleteOh my god (PIR).
ReplyDeleteKeep an eye on RL and PVH. I like RL better. $132 is a spot I marked.
Buying crashes seems to be working pretty well this year. Just obviously have to time it right. Usually have to wait for the bounce and then the second drop. Some ideas to base this off of are GM, DECK, WYNN. That's what I'm looking for in RL and what I'd look for in PIR. These are all solid companies with good earnings supporting them.
DeleteI nearly bought REXX though.
ReplyDeleteIn my opinion, the pullbacks in oil, gold, and Emerging Markets this morning should be bought. Positions to consider would be USO (crude futures, off -4% on top of yesterday's -5% decline), GDX (miners are poised to launch, prior to which the custom is to shake off weak hands), and EEM/RYWVX (-1.2%, in addition to a -3% decline in EWZ [Brazil] to a new 52-wk low).
ReplyDeleteWIX - Ever heard of this one?
ReplyDeleteOZM - This one did actually pop.
ReplyDeleteWas there some scary news I missed?
ReplyDeleteSeems internet stocks are flying?
ReplyDeleteTWTR baby. Gonna be a big one.
DeleteI wanted to buy that f-in one last month, beatch! :)
DeleteNow I have to wait and see if the cat shits in the sandbox again, like FCAU/BXE/DB these were all great stocks too.
Deleteyeah me too. i think there's plenty of room to go up over time though. they're just scratching the surface of what they can do. the native ads thing they're launching is going to put a dent in Youtube ads. here's an example:
Deletehttps://twitter.com/JuddApatow/status/565555698788864000
Meant native video. This is video hosted by Twitter. Their goal is to get people to upload videos to their site so they don't have to post links to Youtube videos (and then lose those viewers). When they start using native videos more and more, advertisers will gravitate toward the platform that people are using more and more.
DeleteThere's a Goldman tech conf tonight. I think this should be another catalyst.
I agree with you, TWTR has huge potential if they can, or have, put it all together. MSFT is a good example of failure, good software is few and far between despite working on it for 30 years with all that horsepower it still sucks.
DeleteCan you tell software engineers piss me off to no end? :)
ha. i think with TWTR you have to take a leap of faith that they will monetize it properly. hard to find a company with $1.4B in revenues growing 100%, with free advertising all around the world ("tweet us at...")...should it be worth less than LNKD, Uber, Instagram, Youtube, etc? Should it be worth 1/7th of FB?
DeleteYes, but are you actually saying you think LNKD, Uber, Instagran, Youtube are all overpriced? Is that a bit like comparing BXE at $8 with CXO at $150 and concluding BXE is worth $10?
DeleteAnd, why do airlines seem so weak? I notice TBT has been on an absolute tear, wouldn't have guessed that except it seems the market is destined to go up so it makes sense from that point of view.
ReplyDeleteMaybe we're done with uber super low rates?
$US - On a tear still as well, this makes US equities attractive I guess as the currency appreciates. This could snowball to a huge dollar rally going forward, especially if the FED increases rates.
ReplyDeleteThus, commodities might have more downside in $US
Perhaps airlines suck wind b/c Joe Sixpack on minimum wage doesn't travel on weekends except for maybe to take the kids to Disneyland once or twice in their young ages. Gotta hand it to Disney, they seem to be on a roll, no?
Spiking the rum with UGAZ @ 2.96.
ReplyDeleteThe morning raid on REXX had the fur on my back standing up, LOL.....
DeleteAKAM - Smacked into resistance again and came off, nice big internet stock party. Just wait for the wheels to come off.
ReplyDeleteDASTY - Dassault Systemes - Any opinions? SOLIDWORKS is the product of focus.
ReplyDeleteHmm, wonder if this might be a good reason to prefer foreign banks as opposed to US banks?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bis.org/publ/work483.pdf
BSBR - What's wrong with this bank, don't they loan in Reals as opposed to $US? If I owed a loan in $US, I'd want to refinance it in Reals at this point...... So BSBR should be in the catbird seat?
ReplyDeleteMaybe I grossly misunderstand something fundamentally important..........
(a) EEM currently -0.67%, but well off the morning lows.
ReplyDelete(b) EWZ (Brazil) has cut its intraday losses in half. Morning buys in EWZ/PBR (Petrobras) well in the green.
(c) Oil prices have recovered somewhat, along with USO/OIH/XLE, but all ETFs still present an attractive entry at these levels.
(d) GDX miners also well off morning lows, and still attractive at these levels. I plan to add a position in RYPMX at the close. Morning buys in SLW (Silver Wheaton) and FCX (Freeport McMoran) in the green.
(e) IWM looks ready to break out. Long RYRSX at the close.
Nice bro.
DeleteGood work, how about VNM?
DeleteTechnical signal energy is ready for buing?
ReplyDelete"Trend improvement, oversold, relative strength improvement, undervaluation and positive flows all at once is a rare event.
The last time all the stars aligned like this was at the market low in 2009. Prior to that, you would have to go back to 2003."
http://blogs.barrons.com/focusonfunds/2015/02/11/oil-crash-triggered-flood-of-money-into-energy-etfs/?mod=BOL_hp_blog_fof
Still think we're a month or so away. Seems like we are setting up for one final leg lower. However, if we rally above the recent highs I think it's safer to say the bottom is in.
Delete(a) Note the +2% spike in silver prices at the London open: http://www.kitco.com/charts/livesilver.html
ReplyDelete(b) Copper futures +2%. Closing FCX (Freeport McMoran) pre-market @ 19.05 for a +4.3% gain.
(c) Crude oil +3.1% and back above 50. Closing PRB (Petrobras) pre-market @ 6.40 for a +6.3% gain.
(d) EEM (Emerging Markets) pre-market bid +1.2%.
(e) EWZ (Brazil) pre-market bid +1.1%. Ibovespa +1.3%.
(f) Europe in full rally mode.
(g) IWM (Russell 2000) pre-market bid +0.7%.
(h) With the positive spikes in US index futures, TLT (the long bond) is in fact off -0.9%, so I dodged a bullet with my last-minute switch at yesterday’s close.
UGAZ off @ 3.14
DeleteFcau up on merger mention by Sergio
ReplyDeleteDB was a sell at last night's close, now it gaps up. Maybe I should just load the remainder of my position into weakness?
ReplyDeleteBXE - Rare to see two consecutive up days, very rare.
ReplyDeleteGEVO - Now priced such that a few cents can translate to a huge move.
ReplyDeleteGEVO Gevo Appoints Andy Marsh, President & CEO of Plug Power Inc., to Its Board of Directors
DeleteToday is a big day! FCAU gains have finally exceeded BXE's losses!!
ReplyDeleteha
DeleteYou must have considerably more FCAU than BXE? BXE stinks to high heaven.
DeleteUGAZ @ 2.87.
ReplyDeleteI think I like that one a lot.
DeleteI was too Chickenpookie to hold Z. Lame.
ReplyDeleteIf it's being embraced by the "system" I can imagine it runs big.
DeleteI gotta say, that CEO of TWTR is pretty bad. I listened to their presentation last night at the GS tech conference and he's gotta be one of the worst presenters I've listened to. Having said that, though, the company will go higher with or without him. They need a visionary there to turn it into a FB which it has the potential to be.
ReplyDeleteIs he the s/w developer type, not a businessman? Maybe he was avoiding over promising or just a dud? Man, how do those duds get appointed CEO..............
DeleteHACK - We still don't like this one, right?
ReplyDeleteI've liked CYBR since $30 but never acted on it.
DeleteKInd of crappy numbers out of lifeco's MFC and SLF this morning. Still a tough environment for them, but with things looking to get better with higher rates and a stronger economy and good demogaphics tailwinds, we should see earnings improving. And because the market is what it is, it will pay a higher valuation on these improving earnings instead of buying them when they are down and push the stocks up significantly - at least that is my theory - the market doesn't always do what I think it should for some strange reason.
ReplyDeleteHow do higher rates make their balance sheets look, doesn't the value of their debt change? They've been buying low return paper for several years now, right?.
DeleteRead the MFC earnings report. they talk this both in US GAAP and IFRS. It is complex.
DeleteSimple answer, good job. You pretty much confirmed my suspicion though, with the word "crappy". My guess is it gets crappier.
DeleteFCAU at new highs today, but GM has also made a nice move up over $38. With GM, you have less upside than FCAU, but you've got a better balance sheet, an activist investor, strong stock holders in Buffet and Tepper, new cars that are being well received and pretty good management in Barra.
ReplyDeleteMy GM position isn't as large as FCAU, but still a good sized one. And it looks like the market is going to be rewarding them both this year.
I suspect Buffett has something up his sleeve with electric cars. He also has invested a bunch in solar and wind, hasn't he?
DeleteAnyway, I'm hoping Mark is right ENPH gets whacked on earnings.
INT - Looks like that fat fuck FMD CEO hasn't cut back on corporate jet expenses.
ReplyDeleteTLT is at bottom of channel here, folks......
Thanks for the heads up, bro.
DeleteNVDA - Gotta like that move.
ReplyDelete(a) Closing USO (crude oil) here at the day’s high for a +4% gain.
ReplyDelete(b) Closing GDX (miners) @ 22.2x for a +1.4% gain. RYPMX (Rydex Precious Metals) likely to close end of day with a similar gain.
(c) Closing SLW (Silver Wheaton) @ 22.5x for a +3% gain.
(d) Closing CAF (China ‘A’ shares) @ 30.5x for a +1.2% gain.
(e) Closing OIH (Oil Services) for a +0.5% gain (somewhat disappointing with crude +4%).
(f) RYWVX (Rydex 2x Emerging Markets) closed the 1030 est window +2.42%. I left a lot on the table. The fund will probably close the day north of +4%.
(g) RYRSX (Rydex 2x Russell 2000) closed the 1030 est window +1.66% (versus a probable +2.2% at session close).
+2.15% gain for the port. Underinvested fund managers may well chase all of the above positions higher Friday morning, but that’s not my style. We all know ‘speed kills.’ When trading, greed kills.
RTH - Wow, just went back to look this chart over........... You guys missed some nice upside.
ReplyDeleteCP- I have a 'Nam post coming up this weekend.
DeleteSpit it out, I'm listening. :)
DeleteTLT bounces off the 61.8% ‘Fibonacci’ retracement again today. Opening RYGBX (Rydex 1.2x Government Long Bond) at the close. There’s moderate risk attached to the trade, so keeping it small.
ReplyDeleteCanceled RYGBX. Another last minute 180.
DeleteIf you don't believe in chart patterns, then how do you explain the pennant formations that always appear on charts?
ReplyDeleteWashington State marijuana growers suffering from excess supply, on the verge of bankruptcy.
ReplyDeleteJust thought I'd note this familiar theme relating to fundamental laws of supply and demand......... 1st grade economics.
$17B in IMF aid for Ukraine - You heard it here last.
ReplyDeleteARO has been rocking.
ReplyDeleteAKAM - Holy crap, nice move yesterday.
ReplyDeleteFiat Chrysler Automobiles (NYSE:FCAU): FCAU is Pabrai's largest individual stock position at 29.16% of the US long portfolio. It was established this quarter at prices between $8.74 and $13.61 and the stock currently trades at $14.47. On October 13, 2014 Fiat Chrysler had an IPO on the New York Stock Exchange and Pabrai established the position soon after. The stock has had a stunning performance returning over 60% in the last four months.
ReplyDeleteVrooommm.... Hopefully there's some mileage in the luxury brands. Lambo and Ferrari are incredible IMO, and Alpha's legacy to me especially, is intriguing.
DeleteYNDX - Will people hold over the weekend?
ReplyDeleteSCO - Back to support here....
ReplyDeleteAIG - Stop sweeper?
ReplyDeleteMilk Chocolate might actually contain milk!!!! SO BEWARE!!!
ReplyDeleteThis market is doing a great job offering up some interesting opportunities this year. From WYNN, GOOGL, FCAU, DECK, RL, GM, YELP, and a bunch of others. AXP seems to be the next one.
ReplyDeleteI've got a buy in for Standard Chartered (SCBFF), the UK bank that does a lot of business in developing countries. It's a thinly traded ADR, so tough to get a fill, but hopefully today.
DeleteBITA acting well now. Very fast mover...
ReplyDeleteBeen thinking about RL as well although not sure if it is done selling yet or what a good buy level would be.
ReplyDeleteANother one is Credit Suiss - the Swiss bank. It's had a big pop the last couple days, but still is way down from the last couple of years and cheap and I like what management is saying.
Sold 10% of US commercial insurer ORI (one of my largest holdings) and put the money into CS. Even though CS has had a good bounce and I hate buying up, I can justify it in my mind as ORI has done better over the last month, so I can feel I'm selling even higher!
ReplyDeleteAs usual for me, about a 1/3 position to start and I'll look to add on weakness.
new post
ReplyDelete