Commodities have taken a beating since April 2014. I
think the entire sector (along with related Emerging Markets stocks) is about to roar
back.
(a) Opening a position in miners (GDX) @ 19.79 (in addition to a position in RYPMX opened last night).
(b) Opened a position in Petrobras (PBR) this morning at a cost basis of about 8.50. Note the stock is already +73% off its 52-wk low, but remains -60% off its 52-wk high. The company has been mired in scandal, but is due to release its delayed earnings report within the next week. Once investors are able to assign hard numbers to corruption-related charges, the stock should be free to trade at its true market value. Of course, they may assign a market value below its current price. Hence the risk.
(c) Opened a position in Brazilian miner VALE @ 6.14.
(d) A related position in RYWBX (basically a short of the $USD, which is itself related to a long position in the Euro) was opened Wednesday night. A decline in the dollar is inversely correlated with commodities prices.
(a) Opening a position in miners (GDX) @ 19.79 (in addition to a position in RYPMX opened last night).
(b) Opened a position in Petrobras (PBR) this morning at a cost basis of about 8.50. Note the stock is already +73% off its 52-wk low, but remains -60% off its 52-wk high. The company has been mired in scandal, but is due to release its delayed earnings report within the next week. Once investors are able to assign hard numbers to corruption-related charges, the stock should be free to trade at its true market value. Of course, they may assign a market value below its current price. Hence the risk.
(c) Opened a position in Brazilian miner VALE @ 6.14.
(d) A related position in RYWBX (basically a short of the $USD, which is itself related to a long position in the Euro) was opened Wednesday night. A decline in the dollar is inversely correlated with commodities prices.
Doug Kass tweets his next generational trade: shorting Sovereign bonds. It makes sense. If only there were a TBT equivalent for European bonds. The bonds are paying negative interest. How likely are yields to continue falling?
ReplyDeleteGiven euro QE is bound to continue, a TBT levered instrument would decay thus eating gains? I guess Germany doesn't really mind a lower euro, on behalf of Mercedes, VW, etc.? The name of the game is "Screw the Savers, reward the risk takers we have work to do if we're gonna save the world from being overlevered and ass-deep in debt"?
DeleteIf I'd only remembered Jack Flash this morning.
ReplyDeleteLove the moves 2nd. Those are the tough trades to make.
ReplyDeleteTASR up nicely today. It's my largest holding. I think they're slowly being recognized as a CRM / ATHN type company with monthly recurring revenues. Valuation is pretty high at about 40x FCF so there's risk for sure. But I think they should get 90% of the police departments using their body cameras and paying monthly fees for storing the video on those cameras. Plus they're getting into a lot of document management and evidence management for police departments and the judicial system. They've focused a lot of effort on boosting their software engineering department and turning it into a software company that lures in customers with hardware.
ReplyDeleteI added more BKJ today at $11.2 avg. Avg is $11.21. They are doing a EPS run rate of around $0.90 to $0.95 so its trading at around 12x. P/B is around 1.2 which isn't incredibly low but not that high. They just did a private placement that will allow them to open up new branches. They're located in a very affluent area (I know it well because I grew up nearby) and I think they have a lot of room to expand especially with a name like Bank of New Jersey. Dividend yield is around 2%. I like this one a lot down here, only up about 20% from the levels in late 2011.
ReplyDeleteSomething to be aware of - when I was in SNBC, who is also in New Jersey, the knock was that it was one of the most competitive states for banking. I thought it would do well as the stock was cheap and Wilbur Ross was involved, but I was wrong. I don't know anything about BKJ though and it may be a completely different situation.
DeleteYep, competition from large banks could be an issue I think, unless the bank has a good grasp of the local market and can lever that not sure if paypal and their ilk help or hurt small banks but it'd be interesting to figure that out.
DeleteEVBS - This bank is in a DC area subburb, I guess it's small in comparison to a SIVB. BTW, SIVB has a strong connection with their clientele and that's what I'm referring to..
Interesting. Something to keep an eye on. BKJ has never had a losing year and the founders came from a successful bank buyout in the area previously so they have some good experience to fall back on.
DeletePlus you've got the name which of course jerks at local heart strings, that counts for a lot if management isn't stuck on themselves.
DeleteRe commodities,
ReplyDeletehttp://www.reuters.com/article/2015/04/16/us-ironore-goldman-idUSKBN0N707P20150416
Could be they are right, but these are the types of headlines you often see when a sector is completely washed out.
Meanwhile X and AKS (and maybe even NM) look like they're bottoming.
DeleteOpening UGAZ @ 2.29. Intuition tells me this POS may finally present a long opp here.
ReplyDeleteRental car has a flat tire this morning.
ReplyDeleteMay as well look at some stocks.
TASR - Good job TOF, thought I saw a bull flag forming on that one. Called Austin and they said there aren't any cameras they can use and if any police force gets tech stuff it's Austin for sure, cops are thick as fleas there and they're serious about their business no funing around.
ReplyDeleteSALT - Wasn't anticipating a recovery...... Hmm, downgrades for these sectors and bango, up they go. AKS was the most recent but now of course it has to sink again to make sure and squeeze all newbies.?
ReplyDeleteSID too, see that? GS is such a reputable company they sold MBS's and shorted their customers during the housing bubble. Tim Geithner's Alma-mater.
DeleteUS Banks: 1Q15 Preview: Long capital markets exposure
ReplyDelete4/10/2015 10:00 AM.1Q15 earnings are unlikely to be a catalyst for bank stocks given seasonally slower loan growth and higher expenses. Due to increased capital markets activity in 1Q, we would prefer to be long market exposure banks heading into the print. Our top large cap picks for the quarter include C and JPM. Among the Smid-caps, we like SIVB and EWBC.
They must have forgotten BAC (I'm long) has Merrill Lynch. I like the negatively on BAC
DeleteSYK - Seems like I've spent half my weekends at the hospital this past year b/c some of us around here have reached an age where they probably shouldn't be driving or walking alone (The argument for status-quo is: 8 decades and never caused an accident so now I grant myself permission!!!).
ReplyDelete(a) $USD futures now -1% to 97.57. I plan to close RYWBX (Rydex 2x Weakening Dollar) end of day. Not because I lack conviction the dollar continues to slide, but because I distrust leveraged funds. In any case, I will have captured a +2% gain with one-day exposure risk- and may reopen the position on any dead cat bounce that occurs Friday.
ReplyDelete(b) Not surprisingly, FXE (the Euro) having a good day, up +1.1%.
(c) PBR (Petrobra) has recovered to 8.70. I think it's a solid long-term holding, albeit one that will exhibit above-average volatility.
(d) Miners continue to churn. Who's selling? And who's buying?
I picked up some AXP today...not a ton but will add to it if it drops.
ReplyDeleteGrabbed some more under $80.
DeleteDecided to bail on this after hours after I thought more about how this might trade. Think I could get a better entry point.
DeleteI picked up some PRU as well today. Cheapest big cap insurer (small cap would prob be BB's NWLI) that I can find.
ReplyDeleteI'm positioning myself for a move higher in rates. Doubt they rise but if they do I think PRU and BAC would benefit the most. If they don't then both are pretty cheap so downside should be minimized a bit.
Was close to buying some QCOM today. It's a cheap stock.
ReplyDeleteRBS - Is that a huge pile of cash?
ReplyDeleteUSPS - These guys are experimenting with gyrocopters.
ReplyDelete'The China Syndrome' was a fictional portrayal of the threat of nuclear meltdown coincidentally released just weeks before the quite non-fictional incident at Three Mile Island.
ReplyDeleteAn overnight announcement by Chinese regulators to allow 'short selling' of stocks (apparently not an option 'til now) sent futures on Shanghai 'A' shares down -5%. The meltdown in stock futures has now made its way across the globe, with the Euro Stoxx 50 trading -3%, The German DAX -2%, and DJIA indications off -130 points. EEM (Emerging Markets) currently off -1.6%.
All of the above has supported gold prices, now +0.7%. Miners are +1% in early trading.
It's unclear whether the announcement was made after the close of trading in Shanghai (up another +2%).
DeleteNaturally, this has perma-bears out with the usual tweets> 'risk happens fast,' '---- happens,' etc. I'd like to go long, but being unprepared I need time to sort this out.
DeleteOpened a small position in FXI (China 'H' shares) @ 49.39 (-5.4% from Thursday's close).
DeleteNext support level for FXI would be around 46.
DeleteHolly Molly. GMO.
ReplyDeleteLast time I paid attention to that stock, it was trading around 3.
DeleteI noticed it was up a couple days ago, not sure what's going on. Is molybdenum up? I could see that maybe if other mining operations are shutting down.
DeleteAdding to VALE @ 5.89.
ReplyDeleteDoesn't bulk shipping rally during economic weakness?
ReplyDeleteSilver Wheaton off @ 19.71 (+1.9%). Goldcorp off @ 20.19 (+2.85%).
ReplyDeleteYANG - Okay, there we go....
ReplyDelete(a) GDX (miners) may continue to run (currently +1.37% @ 20+), but it was prudent to cut back on strength.
ReplyDelete(b) DJIA -237, recovering from an earlier -269 point selloff.
(c) Added to Brazilian miner VALE @ 5.89, which is still weak. Added to PBR (Petrobras) @ 8.37, which is now back to 8.56.
(d) FXI (China 'H' Shares) bounced off a morning low of 49.47 and now trading at 49.90.
(e) Considering a position in RYWVX (Rydex 2x Emerging Markets) at the 1030 window.
I ended up selling all of my FCAU, BAC and PRU pre market, thank God. I added to TASR at $28.6 to $28.8.
ReplyDeleteNice exit on AXP last night as well!
DeleteDodged a bullet across the board. Ducked into the alleyway only to find a cop trying to tase me. So I bought the stock of his supplier.
DeleteCutting back further on PBR (Petrobras) @ 8.72 (+2.8% from basis).
ReplyDeleteCE
ReplyDeleteI'm done with PBR (Petrobras) @ 8.78 (+3.2%). Earnings announcement on Sunday could spike prices either way, and today's global sell off presents more 'interesting' challenges (and with less risk) than a single stock.
ReplyDeleteAwesome stuff. I wouldn't touch that stock but only because I still can't figure out how to value oil. Throw in a political scandal in a foreign country and I just don't have the balls for that one.
DeleteI'm not sure about the market but I fully expect to go green today.
ReplyDeleteI should open a dollar-for-dollar hedge in GMO against my position in UGAZ. What a POS.
ReplyDeleteHere's the news on TASR:
ReplyDeletehttp://finance.yahoo.com/news/taser-surges-6-londons-police-132757929.html
They average about $26 to $30 a month for storage per office. So this would be a $9.4 to $10.8 Million deal for them. They only did $160M or so last year so this would be a massive win. They have won all but one deal so far so my bet is they win 90% of them. There are 2M or so sworn officers in the US/Canada and Europe. At $26 to $30/month that equates to $600 to $700M annually revenue opportunity. These Saas companies generally trade at 8 to 10x revenues so that could be a $5 to $7Billion market cap opportunity. Tough buying up here after the run but I think it has more room to go up given the market opportunity.
Good thinking, seems plausible.
DeleteRisks are:
Delete(1) GoPro gets into the market. Don't think that happens given how far along TASR is with every police department and how much trust they have built with their Tasers. Plus they offer a plan where you can exchange your old Tasers for new ones every so often if you pay for the highest tier plan ($99/month).
(2) Government doesn't want this data stored in the cloud. Possible but I think unlikely given the FBI is planning to move to Amazon (which is what Taser is using): http://fcw.com/articles/2014/07/24/fbi-amazon-cloud.aspx
(3) There is a cloud security breach and the data stored in videos can't be used.
(4) Another vendor like Vievu wins deals. See #1
(5) Valuation is too high and the market size isn't as big because officers won't pay for the storage fees. On the 2nd part, read this article:
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2015/04/17/met_police_to_start_buying_up_to_30000_body_cams
"Goodier said the equipment and storage costs would be fronted by the police, but the use of the technology will dramatically cut costs by speeding up the time it takes to compile evidence and bring a case to trial. "It's about taking an holistic view of the criminal justice system," he said."
KEX - eh.... Could have some upside coming?
ReplyDeleteThis is why I sold FCAU; enough people will not be willing to wait until end of year for Ferrari IPO (so they will sell) to cause the stock to fall; i'll be there to buy lower, maybe in the $13-14 area?:
ReplyDelete"Marchionne declined to comment about the chances of a tie-up between the world's seventh-largest carmaker and U.S. rival General Motors, but said the company was talking to many parties, without giving details.
"We have talks ongoing with various operators on various topics," he said.
Fiat completed its buyout of U.S. arm Chrysler last year and moved the primary listing of the merged group to New York. The company is now incorporated in the Netherlands and has its headquarters in London.
Marchionne said work to spin-off and list luxury unit Ferrari was ongoing and he expected the floatation to happen this year, although he suggested the process may spill over into 2016."
Raiding (RSX) Russia @ 19.37 (the year Stalin began the Great Purge) on it's -5.4% pullback.
ReplyDeleteSure enough man. That gap fill to $20ish was a golden opportunity. I snoozed on RUSS. Foolish.
DeleteRight. And of course last night I decided against reopening a position in RYWYX (Rydex 2x Inverse Emerging Markets).
DeleteDECK, KORS, and RL looking cheap on a EV/EBITDA basis:
ReplyDeleteKORS: 8.6
DECK: 7.9
WWW: 13.92
VFC: 19.06
COH: 10.3
RL: 8.42
NKE: 17.0
UA: 41.1
I've started using EV/EBITDA more lately in addition to P/FCF etc as I've found it to be pretty reliable. Here's a good writeup on it:
http://www.crossingwallstreet.com/archives/2014/02/the-single-best-metric-evebitda.html
RSX sold off hard to 18.69 on high volume (institutional, IMO) several minutes ago. Doubling down @ 18.85, and regardless of price movement I'll be out well before end of day.
ReplyDeleteRSX off at 18.93.
DeleteRSX now 19.15. Sure, my exit could have been better played, but when it comes to taking losses I don't hesitate (apart from the occasional defensive trade intended to quickly 'ameliorate' the damage- in this case, by doubling down into a steep drop). So the trade might have ended 'green' rather than a -1% loss. It happens. The important point is to avoid steep losses by taking losses early. For instance, had I been holding RSX last night, taking the -3.8% at today's open would have hurt- but not as much as the current -6.7%. And depending on pain threshold, the intraday -9% drop to 18.69 might have led to capitulation.
DeleteEYES/TASR - These guys should get together with ISRG and make a "Robocop" capable of taking blood, stool and urine samples by force, if necessary.
ReplyDeleteUGAZ off @ 2.19.
ReplyDeleteBalance of FXI closed here @ 50 (where I had set a 'sell stop') for a +1.2% gain.
ReplyDeleteTicks and 'Tutes
ReplyDeleteWhat's worrisome today? With 2 and 1/2 hours to go, trading volume on SPY is well above the daily average seen earlier this week (the 4 days that saw the SPX tread water). Selling pressure has been extreme, with the feed printing a series of -1000 downticks. A combination of high volume + low ticks generally indicates institutional selling. And when 'tutes are selling, my comfort level with market exposure recedes quickly. Right now, even utilities (XLU) and miners are pulling back.
(a) Taking VALE off the table @ 5.91.
(b) Will close RYPMX (Rydex Precious Metals) end of day.
(a) Closing FXE (Euro) at 106.07 for a +2% gain.
ReplyDelete(b) For good measure, I'm even taking off the small LT position in GREK here @ 10.31.
By market close, I'll be fully positioned in the most underrated asset class in capital markets-> cash.
China margin crackdown - Read the hot news here on TT first!!!!
ReplyDeleteF-----' A.
DeleteYep, this is where it's at, stick around man...
DeleteThese are the kind of stocks I keep an eye on:
ReplyDelete"together with its subsidiaries, designs, manufactures, and overhauls precision components, and engineered products and services primarily to the aerospace, defense, automotive, shipbuilding, processing, oil, petrochemical, agricultural equipment, railroad, power generation, security, and metalworking industries worldwide."
Even though the grammar is atrocious.
Delete"provides instruments, subsystems, and process control solutions that measure, control, power, monitor, and analyze critical parameters of manufacturing processes in the United States and internationally."
DeleteRestoring eyesight by method of molecular therapy....
ReplyDeletehttp://www.eosneuroscience.com/