The markets are reliable in one sense- if you're left behind by one bus, another one will arrive in due time.
(a) If you've been watching the liftoff in the Euro from the sidelines the past three weeks, no worries. FXE is retesting the mid-March lows today.
(b) Conversely, if you regret not having bet against the $USD in mid-March, RYWVX (Rydex 2x Weakening Dollar) should retest its own mid-March lows today.
(c) TLT (the long bond) is off a remarkable -1.4% this afternoon.
(d) Miners are off an additional -1%. Gold itself is back below 1200.
What's it all mean? I don't know. In my opinion, volatility is likely to spike soon. However, volatility doesn't necessarily mean a correction- it could just as easily mean shorts get taken to the woodshed. My experience has also been that the initial move(s) prior to any trend change will likely be a head fake.
It's a good time to remain patient.
2nd - Here's a good article on the same thinking in your post:
ReplyDeletehttp://morganhousel.tumblr.com/post/115872390778/markets-change-so-should-you
Nice find. Another validation of the quote (incorrectly, yet appropriately) attributed to Darwin: 'It is not the strongest of the species that survives, nor the most intelligent that survives. It is the one that is most adaptable to change.'
DeleteThe beauty of 'admitting I'm wrong' and 'taking losses immediately' (two phrases not oft encountered in the average trading curriculum) is displayed in today's closing prices for RYTPX and RYWYX. I opened positions in both Wednesday night thinking pullbacks were overdue in SPY and EEM. Instead, (i) most of the selling in US indexes took place overnight via the futures market and (ii) the Hang Seng vaulted higher by another +3-4%. Closing positions at the morning window resulted in an acceptable -0.45% loss (note that RYTPX closed in the green despite a slightly positive bid for SPY). I'll admit that I thought about holding 'til end of day (I always do), but the disciplined move is to close at the earliest possible opportunity. The funds ended the day off -0.89% and -2.05% respectively.
ReplyDeleteUGAZ has broken the $2 barrier.
ReplyDeleteSold 60% of tasr ah at $27.6
ReplyDeleteYINN/YANG - Holy crap....
ReplyDelete$USD futures unexpectedly reversed overnight, and a -0.3% decline has jumped a point to print a +0.6% rise. In my opinion, it's a buying opp- the next bus. The Euro coach (a double-decker) arrived this morning, and I'm reopening a position in FXE pre-market @ 104.05. (Last 104 print was March 16, followed by a test of 108 seven trading days later.)
ReplyDeleteROSE - Mark, you still have this monster?
ReplyDeleteBought back my tasr shares at 27
ReplyDeleteI like that one but it bothers me some that a death has to occur to get it going. All the money that's spent on defense contractors to wage war and cops don't have body cameras already.....
DeleteTherein lies the opportunity
DeleteDB - Expensive?
ReplyDelete"Deutsche Bank: Delayed pain
2/6/2015 5:30 AM.EPS cut 11-17% on higher bank levy costs and lower NIMs. PO cut -7% to EUR25 with -8% downside. Reiterate Underperform. DBK has rerated 20% already in 2015 with +8% price and -8-11% consensus EPS cuts. It is at the top of its P/E trading range. Selling Postbank would boost leverage by 40bp, but hit earnings by -9%: DBK would become one of the most expensive global IBs."
FRO - Thought that might happen, Iranian oil should help this one.... (I Think?)
ReplyDeleteInteresting how banks were being pumped recently, with DB at 6 month highs, LOL......
ReplyDeleteMoody's downgraded GE, eh?
ReplyDeleteEXTR - Ouch, guess it's not good enuff to have a small PCB , like nobody thought of that already.....
ReplyDeleteACM - This US1 list stock hasn't done too shabbily, eh?
ReplyDeleteOpened positions in a few 'long(er) term' trades:
ReplyDelete(a) PBR (Petrobras) @ 7.6x.
(b) GREK (Greece) @ 11.0x.
(c) FCX (Freeport McMoran) @ 18.3x.
For various reasons, and employing different entry strategies.
And because I like nothing more than to piss money away, I opened a flyer in UGAZ @ 1.91.
ReplyDeleteCP,
ReplyDeletewho posted that analysis on DB? Are you selling?
Hello world.
ReplyDeleteTaking the majority of PBR (Petrobras) off @ 8.12. It's generally prudent to lock in a one-day +5% move in this stock. On the other hand, it's entirely possible it's beginning a long-term climb back to double digits.
ReplyDeleteWise move is my guess.
DeleteUGAZ off @ 1.97.
ReplyDeleteI started a tiny position in ISNS at $2.75. I'm looking to double down if drops back to the low $2's. This is a tiny company. I got interested in them when I saw that Norman Pessin took a stake in them. He was buying up a stake in NLS when I was in them around $2.00. I can see why he is interested just in terms of cost structure as they have allowed their SG&A expenses to balloon from $4MM to $16MM while revenues have only doubled over the past 10 years. R&D has ramped up a lot too so it seems to me there could be some room to cut costs and get the cost structure more aligned with revenues.
ReplyDeleteHopped back into VA at $30.03 and FCAU at $16.53 today.
ReplyDeleteStill keeping positions fairly small on everything to give room for adding. I might build into a larger position in FCAU if they drop it down to $16 again.
DeleteFAC - Does this one look cheap still?
ReplyDeleteThey're voting in MD today I think, on police body cameras.
ReplyDeleteVA - Of course it's #1, for starters it nice not feeling dusty and dirty or sitting in a seat for six hours that sinks of urine and puke.
AIG, sold all on break-out, see if it holds.
ReplyDeleteQCOM gives all pre open up
NEM holding on Barron's article that it has 55% upside, a big boys favorite.
other than that not doing much except looking at Pessin
http://whalewisdom.com/filer/pessin-norman-h
Looking more into VA right now.
ReplyDeleteMB
And what do you see?
DeletePutin needs to make a deal with the POTUS while he's feeling jovial, last time I witnessed a black man shake hands with a Cuban was just after they'd stepped into the ring before the bell rang and the fight began......
ReplyDeleteAustin police officer says the body cameras they've sampled aren't able to operate an 8 hour shift without replacing the batteries and the resolution is sub par.
ReplyDelete(a) Intraday high for PBR (Petrobras) was 8.30, currently trading around 8.01.
ReplyDelete(b) Opening small positions in RYGBX (Rydex 1.2x Government Long Bond) and RYWYX (Rydex 2x Inverse Emerging Markets) at the close.
Interesting market 'dance' at this juncture.
I'm hoping for a test of $20 on RSX before opening RUSS again. If it doesn't come oh well
Delete"I waited three months for it but the tanker trade is upon us."
ReplyDeletehttp://reminiscencesofastockblogger.com/2015/04/13/week-197-make-your-money-while-you-can/
Makes a compelling case for ASC - will probably buy tomorrow if the price is still ok. This guy has a good knack for identifying trends and making money off them.
Although I'm on west coast time now in Phoenix and it may be hard to wake up at 6:30 to make a trade.
DeleteCENX - Tons of volume on this one.
ReplyDelete(a) $USD dropping hard (-0.9%). FXE (Euro) trading up +1%.
ReplyDelete(b) The long bond looking good. TLT +1.44 (+1.1%) to 131.25.
(c) Hang Seng finally pulled back overnight. EEM trading flat, and I plan to close RYWYX (Rydex Inverse 2x Emerging Markets) @ the 1030 window.
(d) Re-established a full position in PBR (Petrobras) on the drop to 8.05 (following a strong open @ 8.23).
PBR off @ 8.15.
ReplyDeleteElectronic nose for cancer detection - I believe this should be possible considering dogs can detect cancer also termites then it should be possible to perform gas chromatography to isolate the target species. If it's proven possible there should be other similar perhaps more effective ways, though such as blood gas analysis?
ReplyDeleteBought shipper ASC this morning.
ReplyDeleteNow long ASC and NAT.
The Reminiscences guy has put a large percent of his money into shipping stocks and I'm leveraging his work to go into 2 of the less risky ones. If his thesis works out, the more leveraged ones like FRO will be the big winners, but I like to go with more safety.
Energy - Hey man, I thought energy and producers were supposedly doomed. So WTF?
ReplyDeleteNAT delivering on their dividend increase that the CEO promised last quarter:
ReplyDeleteNAT
Nordic American Tankers declares $0.38 dividend
Nordic American Tankers (NYSE:NAT) declares $0.38/share quarterly dividend, 72.7% increase from prior dividend of $0.22.Forward yield 12.03%Payable May 21; for shareholders of record May 7; ex-div May 5.
I added to my position in VA today. I understand the price of oil is rising and this is having a negative impact on airlines, but if you look at the seasonality of oil it generally hits a lull between now and July and my thinking is if oil doesn't rise much further than the mid $50's people will begin to think it will stay lower and this change in thinking will have a positive impact on airlines. I like VA because it consistently ranks in the top for customer service and overall airline rankings, they have a great flying experience, their customers are very loyal, they have the lowest price to current EPS estimates ratio, and they're expanding their fleet significantly over the next year. I'll use a move below recent lows as a sign I'm wrong.
ReplyDeleteI own a Canadian airline - TRZ.B. I am down on it as they had a bad couple quarters due to troubles with the currency and poorly hedged fuel costs, but their profits should move up a lot once this works through. I think, in general, airlines are still a good place to be. They seem to have gotten sensible about competing now and are smart with the add-on charges to generate profits.
DeleteLots of these guys are down 6 to 10% in the past month as oil was up about 15%. Obviously getting the direction of oil correct is key. But I think this impact will diminish a bit as people see that the airlines will do well in any environment, so long as they don't rapidly increase capacity.
DeleteYINN - Time for some YANG?
ReplyDelete(a) RYWYX (Rydex 2x Inverse Emerging Markets) closed the 1030 window flat @ 14.99. I bailed simply b/c my take was wrong (given a one day time frame), and the quick exit resulted in no harm.
ReplyDelete(b) RYGBX (Rydex 1.2x Government Long Bond) looks to close around +1%. My take on bonds was correct. TLT has backed off earlier morning highs (now just +0.7%), but I still like the trade. I plan to hold the position.
(c) FXE (Euro) has also pulled back (now just +0.7% as well), but of course this is a longer-term trade.
(d) For better or worse, I opted to close PBR (Petrobras) @ 8.18 (now 8.20). Entirely based on the sense the stock may 'test' recent buyers.
Re PBR> now entirely out (including the 'core').
DeleteLong RUSS at $7.69
ReplyDeleteLooking to add more at RSX at $20.
DeletePart of me wonders if I should just ignore this trade, though. It does seem like oil could surprise people and rally. Sentiment seems pretty negative still on oil so that leaves the chance for more upside from here.
DeleteRSX trades pretty much in trend with USO, so it seems playing Russia really is really dependent on the price of oil.
DeleteI've looked at the big Russian energy stocks and they are very cheap, but who knows what Putin will do?
I picked up a small stake in BKJ the past couple of days around $11.25. Been watching this one for a long time. Pretty well run bank that trades at a low p/e. Not liquid so I plan on holding for a little while.
ReplyDelete(a) Index futures are pointing to a +0.25% open.
ReplyDelete(b) Interestingly, TLT (long-term Treasurys) are also bidding higher.
(c) The $USD is trading +0.5% higher. This may set up a short later in the day.
Two unexpected reactions to a higher $USD = FXE (Euro) is trading flat, and gold/miners trading higher. Both hinting at limited upside in the $USD.
ReplyDeleteBXE - Up 4% out of the gate, WTF am I dreaming?
ReplyDeleteParts of this is really interesting, should be watched.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2015-04-15/stan-druckenmiller-zero-interest-rates-unnecessary-now
Perhaps start from 19 minutes into vid if you short on time and stop if you lose interest. This guy has a great investment mind!!
Makes me think TBT could be ready, or if it happens overnight (too quickly), mreits should get whacked for an entry.
DeleteI sold the RUSS pre market at $7.38 for a loss. Glad I didn't take a bigger position. I had a feeling that was going to be a loser.
ReplyDeleteAdded to BAC at $15.7 avg today. I thought the earnings were decent.
Sold some VA at $30.4.
YRCW - ???
ReplyDeleteI was looking at this yesterday. I think I like it.
DeleteI drove to DC Monday and the rt-95 was covered thick in trucks.
DeleteA bazzilion energy up/down grades today.
ReplyDeleteHELI - Why up so much.....?
ReplyDeleteFCAU - Not sure why the weakness but action seems like this should be sold?
ReplyDeleteI sold VA today. The breakout in oil concerns me being in an airline. Rolled that into BAC
ReplyDeleteSALT - Bouncing off $2, is bulk really that bad off or gonna heal? I don't want to hld a stock hemorrhaging cash as far as the EYES can see.
ReplyDeleteTDW - This one has had tons of volume lately, some insider buyinf too?
ReplyDeleteThanks for posting that link with Druckenmiller, T3d. He brought up a great point about the Chinese stock market that is making me think a lot about what is tied to Chinese growth. He said about 95% of the time he has seen a stock market boom like that there is a boom in economic activity within a year. He said it might be different with China because he's not sure he trusts the data completely but he said odds are good it will happen there. If that's the case, what stocks are most heavily tied to this? One idea I think of is NM. As well as CAT. Any other ideas?
ReplyDeleteI have been thinking of CAT for the reason below.
DeleteGrowth for Caterpillar over the next five-to-10 years will likely be strong. Buying at a cyclical trough has historically resulted in rapid earnings growth for shareholders. The trough-to-peak earnings-per-share growth for Caterpillar's last two cycles is shown below:
2002 (cyclical trough) earnings-per-share: $1.15
2008 (cyclical peak) earnings-per-share: $5.71
Earnings-per-share annualized growth rate: 30.6%
2009 (cyclical trough) earnings-per-share: $1.43
2012 (cyclical peak) earnings-per-share: $9.36
Earnings-per-share annualized growth rate: 87.1%
Druck mentioned BMW and Volkswagen, but you need to buy on foreign exchange.
DeleteI'd stay away from NM because of its exposure to the dry bulk market - I don't think steel is going to come back the way people think and these will stay under pressure.
DeleteCrane maker MTW is an interesting one. Ichan is in it and getting them to split their crane and food service business into 2 companies, so you've got a few ways to win (improving economy, better valuations due to focus, better execution). I'm not sure what percent of MTW's business is in China, but they are a global company, so I would have to think it is significant.
Volkswagon has a couple of ADR's that have enough volume (70,000 daily share average) for a buy and hold for a while, not good for a quick trade.
DeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
DeleteYou picked a nice time of year to visit Phoenix.
DeleteHow's the hamburger joint? forgot the name
Great weather and really beautiful place - it's their springtime and a lot of things are in bloom. Funny on the radio they say watch out for tomorrow as it will be quite cool, only going up to 79.
DeleteWe ended up going to Fleming's Steakhouse for burgers. You can buy a $50 gift card at Costco for $40 and get $3 drafts and $7 burgers for happy hour.
Still want to try one of these quick casual burger places though.
I opened a LT position in GREK (Greece) recently @ 11. Opening a ST position here @ 10.36.
ReplyDeleteBIIB went long about 11% pull back from b/o
ReplyDeletenew Q and they love oil, recovered about 10% from the 28% drop from highs (XLE)
I'm ending my long(er)-term trade in FCX (Freeport McMoran) here @ 20.44, which marks a +11.2% gain from last Friday's entry.
ReplyDeleteCan understand why your rang the register, but man does the monthly look good. TOF, maybe this is a China play.
Deletesold BIIB, I do better taking gains when they appear..
Still holding a fairly large position in TASR. It's morphing into a tech/cloud storage company. This whole body camera thing is a huge boon for their business because in addition to paying for the cameras they are getting police departments to pay for video storage on a monthly basis for every officer. Its a huge cash cow for them. While its expensive right now relative to earnings, it's not really that expensive relative to free cash flow (trades at around 40x FCF) and FCF should explode over the coming years.
ReplyDeleteFCF is growing 30% per year for the past 3 years but this figure should actually accelerate as more police departments sign up for body cameras and sign on to their Evidence.com monthly hosting package. It's the perfect monthly recurring business model that companies like CRM perfected. The target market for this is about 1 Million cops in the US, with another 1+ Million in Europe. So at least 2+ Million cops is the target market. If they can capture 1/3 of that and the average price those cops are paying is $50/month (right now they have pricing plans between $20/month to $100/month) then you're talking an additional revenue stream of $400 to $500M a year. If I look at CRM and ATHN, two pure play cloud storage plays, the average p/s for those companies is between 8 and 9x. So this revenue stream for TASR could be worth $3.2B to $4.5B. TASR is worth $1.4B right now. I think the stock goes a good deal higher from here.
TASR popped last week on a win in the UK which most likely gave investors hope they would be able to sell into Europe. Oppenheimer had a bullish report on them as well. They gave a low price target but talked about the opportunity they have.
Delete"In a report published Friday, Oppenheimer analyst Andrew Uerkwitz detailed a recent meeting with TASER International, Inc. (NASDAQ: TASR)'s senior management team, including the company's CEO and Co-founder Rick Smith .
"While we didn't learn anything new, we walked away with more confidence in the fundamental opportunities and Taser's strategy to capitalize," Uerkwitz wrote. "Management reiterated that 2015 would be an investment year as it believes gaining market share will best position the company for the longer term as law enforcement agencies gradually shift from disconnected (often unconnected) evidence platforms toward an all-encompassing network."
See Also: Taser Revisits Late-February Highs
Uerkwitz said that Taser can transform itself from a single weapons based firm to a technology leader for law enforcement and the broader security market. In other words, the company is batting in the "top of the first inning," or merely at the cusp of mass technological change, starting with video storage and moving horizontally into hard evidence management/tracking, and then moving vertically into document collection, interagency sharing, litigation support and editing.
Finally, Uerkwitz noted that Smith would be relocating to Europe for a year to help with the sales effort. As such, 2015 and 2016 could prove to be an "inflection point" for international sales to grow.
Shares remain Outperform rated with an unchanged $28 price target."
Something changed, I just don't know what it was.
ReplyDeleteThe rise in the $USD was indeed capped at +0.5%, now down -0.42%. Cutting back on FXE (Euro) @ 105.15, dancing around the position.
ReplyDeleteFCAU annual meeting tomorrow. I'm assuming we get news of Ferrari IPO and merger rumors.
ReplyDeleteTough call here. I think the $USD continues to decline, and miners continue to rally.
ReplyDelete(a) Closing RYGBX (Rydex 1.2x Government Long Bond) end of day. TLT treading water now, and I'm happy with a +1% gain relative to Monday's open.
(b) Opening a position in RYWBX (Rydex 2x Weakening Dollar) at the close.
(c) Opening a position in RYPMX (Rydex Precious Metals) at the close.
(d) Opened a position in Brazil mining company VALE @ 6.14.
Draghi said ECB isn't planning on stopping QE soon, so you read it here on TT first!
ReplyDeleteShouldn't I report my income/losses under gambling?
ReplyDeleteI seriously always thought this could be a problem here.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-15/japan-s-prisons-are-turning-into-nursing-homes
One of the guys who worked in our group took a joint (or a baggie, it was unclear to me) with him to Japan and it was found in his luggage by customs. Didn't sound like a nursing home at all.
DeleteMCP- There's your triple.
ReplyDeleteOh, of course....... Never seen that happen before...... See PAL though, off the cliff big time. Soon BXE will do that too when the debt payments aren't met? Maybe recent price increase is the bull trap, like DB was a bull trap yesterday?
DeleteNot sure why exactly but my positions usually turn to crap on me.
(a) $USD futures made an attempt at 99 overnight, which was sold, now off -0.4%. The decline in the $USD is helping gold, with miners up +1% in early trade.
ReplyDelete(b) PBR (Petrobras) finally pulling back, which allowed me to reopen a position at 8.59. I was clearly wrong in my call for a retest below 8 yesterday- the stock instead rallied to 8.90!
Always take your gain on a day like yesterday....
ReplyDeleteRocking in the ZOO.
ReplyDeletePretty boring out there.
ReplyDeleteYou still have ROSE?
DeleteWow, ROSE really bloomed.
DeleteI'll be here all day!
NRZ - A great example of how much REITs suck hind tit?
ReplyDeleteSCCO - About to return to $25? Expanding their mine despite ENVIRONMENTAL WIZARDS TWEETING on their SMART PHONES from SF they oppose anything beyond grass huts and solar flashlights.
ReplyDeleteBAC - Quite a spurt there....
ReplyDeletePCRX - What happened to the rising star, or were we chasing a POS?
ReplyDeleteI'm warming up to that one again.
DeleteDB - I won't mind buying DB @ $28 this time around.
ReplyDeleteGMO - Are computers screwing with us again? Feels like it.
I doubled down on FCAU just now at $16.12. 15% position now.
ReplyDeletenew post
ReplyDeleteI added more BKJ today at $11.2 avg. Avg is $11.21. They are doing a EPS run rate of around $0.90 to $0.95 so its trading at around 12x. P/B is around 1.2 which isn't incredibly low but not that high. They just did a private placement that will allow them to open up new branches. They're located in a very affluent area (I know it well because I grew up nearby) and I think they have a lot of room to expand especially with a name like Bank of New Jersey. Dividend yield is around 2%. I like this one a lot down here, only up about 20% from the levels in late 2011.
ReplyDeleteLNC - My broker upgraded this one.
ReplyDeleteNHC - Are people dying to get in AND dying to get out?