Back in the Eighties, I arrived home one evening to find a handwritten message which read, 'Fear is good.' I had asked around about an oral surgeon (Dr. Fear) who had taken over a local practice, and one DDS had responded with that simple statement. Obviously, a statement in the 'multiple entendre' category.
Fear is in fact a good thing. It's an emotion associated with growth, one that signifies we're making progress. Do you recall the day your Mom dropped you off at Kindergarten, and then walked away? The year you were the new kid in town? What about the first time you asked someone for a date, or signed off on the loan 'docs' for a home purchase? When we're inside our comfort zone, nothing's happening- the same old same old. Fear arises when we reach beyond the limits of the comfort zone.
A certain degree of fear when opening a position is expected, more so when we venture into higher risk levels or take 'the other side' of crowded trades. Yet seeking higher rewards demands that we drive beyond the 'city limits.'
Fear comfort. Embrace fear.
Where is Line of Duty available?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.hulu.com/search?q=line+of+duty
DeleteThx. I'll check it out tonight.
DeleteWeak jobs numbers and a big miss this morning and the stock futures are down almost 1%.
ReplyDeleteI agree with your comment 2nd about trading and life in general., Often trades which are painful to make turn out to be quite good. Same with this work I did on the house recently. Put a lot of stress on myself doing things I had never done before, but feels great when they are done.
ReplyDeleteWhen I signed my loan docs, I was thinking to myself what a great deal I was getting by tying up someone else's money on a property located in Silicon Valley which was and remains, a one of a kind sort of place.
ReplyDelete"why is a German bank owning a Canadian port? Certainly not in their key competence "
ReplyDeleteI own a piece of this incompetent bank, and I ask myself everyday if it's a bad idea to own a Canadian company.
It's generally good to own companies which are moving from poor diversification strategies to a focused business model. The stock market likes this.
DeleteAgreed, the one is working nicely. :)
DeleteReady for the Australia to join the ranks of the recessionary? Coal - In the toilet everywhere, Iron Ore - China's expansion rate is decreasing rapidly.
ReplyDeleteSpeaking of toilets, India is experiencing a severe deficit of sanitary systems.
http://csinvesting.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/holding-period.jpg
ReplyDeleteI can't blame them, it's more of a game than investing.
DeleteDo not really need to see it to know it been going on for awhile. Notice the world does not even care about the one year capital gains rule anymore at least for US investors.
DeleteI wonder how many countries have that capital gains rule - in Canada, we do not. All capital gains are treated the same (at 50% of income rate).
DeleteImpressive CAT technology
ReplyDeletehttp://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2015/04/peek-inside-caterpillars-fully.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+MishsGlobalEconomicTrendAnalysis+%28Mish%27s+Global+Economic+Trend+Analysis%29
Happy Easter egg hunting all.
ReplyDeleteGoing through the annual reports for ING and AEG this weekend - both are around 400 pages - that is way too big. I'm trying to make sure I hit all the important sections and hopefully I don't miss anything important,
ReplyDeleteTwo Big Eggs, were they in plain sight?
DeleteGL with the reading BB.
Even Marketwatch identifying the big banks as good opportunities:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-earnings-seasons-winners-surprisingly-big-banks-2015-04-02
I think the questions really is more when these stocks do well, not if. Maybe it is is this year or maybe further out still.
Do any of you guys know the ASPS / WAC / OCN story well?
ReplyDeleteI've looked into them a couple times, but couldn't figure them out.
DeleteI wonder if they might be hedge fund trading stocks used to fleece the average investor.
(a) Taking half of PBR (Petrobras) off pre-market @ 6.96 (+3.6%).
ReplyDelete(b) Oil futures up as much as +3% overnight, now pulling back to +2%.
(c) Spot gold +1.6%, spot silver +2.5%.
(d) TLT (the long bond) +0.7%.
(e) SPX -0.7%.
nice trade 2nd
DeleteMeaty article if you have the time or inclination.
ReplyDeletehttp://larrysummers.com/2015/04/05/time-us-leadership-woke-up-to-new-economic-era/
ROLL - Wow, how could I have known this one was worth $76 as opposed to $55?
ReplyDeleteHXL - This one has done pretty well also.
DeleteRL - Seems to be taking off, huh?
ReplyDeleteI saw the FLY dude was talking it up today. I guess if you annualize last two quarters' EPS then it is a cheap stock. I think that's a little premature and that it could get down to the low $100's but in a raging bull market odds probably are higher that it doesn't go that low.
DeleteDamn I sold LEVY too soon.
ReplyDeleteBAC interests me a lot. Its dirt cheap compared to the others relative to net asset size. I have no idea what "normalized" earnings should be and I have zero desire to try to read through their annual report because the majority of the shit in there is probably illegible. But common sense tells me that housing will pick up steadily over time due to household formation and underdevelopment of housing and that should be a nice tailwind for them for a long time.
ReplyDeleteFind us an entry.
DeleteI think down here makes sense, which is why I like it so much. Mark is better at timing exact entries than I am. But look at the chart. I see a bunch of higher lows for a while now. I agree with that Marketwatch article about this being a good spot given the fact that a lot of the regulatory penalties are going away.
DeleteIf you want to play the stop out play just in case it drops then a move below $14.8 or so would stop you out. Not exactly a ton of risk here.
Simple buy now stop at 15.01, risk about 3%.
DeleteLong BAC
I see TOF has similar take on play.
DeleteBefore I do something stupid (not out of fear, out of ignorance), LOL
DeleteI bought some today. Plan on buying some more over next few weeks to spread it out.
Deletehttp://investcorrectly.com/20150406/fiat-chrysler-automobiles-nv-fcaus-maserati-plans-uptick-us-dealerships-coupled-aggressive-launch-full-size-crossover-levante/
ReplyDeleteThis Levante SUV should sell really well. It's a sweet car:
http://image.motortrend.com/f/wot/1402_maserati_levante_powertrain_comes_into_focus/65177467/maserati-kubang-concept.jpg
Pretty sure the Lexus SUV (RX?) is responsible for 75% on all LExus sales. If the Maserati SUV comes even close to this, will be a big success. Also read Cadillac going to come out with a crossover as they feel they are missing a big opportunity
DeleteEWS - I missed that drop to ~$12, just noticed.
ReplyDeleteI mentioned EWT a while ago because Taiwan looks to be on the verge of a breakout after consolidating for 26 years (!). TSM should probably move up on that breakout too.
DeleteYeah, maybe I was thinking about the $US going on a wild tear to the upside, that's one feature that can throw me off on foreign stuff. Like BXE for instance, it's not just low energy prices perhaps going lower but also the $CAD, as iron ore, coal and all else exported Australia is about to enter recession (nice contrarian bet?) due to natural resources prices.
Delete$CAD looks to be in a rectangle range here may provide opp.
DeleteI think BB has it right on the currency moves...basically that they just ebb and flow. Although I do think a case should be made for the USD being much stronger than all other currencies due to political stability, rule of law being upheld, economic stability, etc. I got scared out of FCAU earlier this year in large part because I didn't understand the impact of a huge move in the USD. I realized my mistake (of looking into the currency move too much) and got back in but I missed a 30% move. So I guess my point is currencies will do what they will do in the short term (unless we're talking about really horrible countries like Russia / Venezuela / Zimbabwe etc), but in the long term its the fundamentals of the underlying country / company that matters.
DeleteEarly rally in US indexes, reversing the initial reaction last Friday (via futures) to payrolls. RYTNX (Rydex 2x SP) off at the 1030 est window for an expected +0.8% gain.
ReplyDeleteRalph Lauren - Revisiting a Battleground Stock
ReplyDeleteRL's stock is down -21% since reporting on 2/4 - w/an EPS miss in F3Q15, and FY16
guidance implying EPS more than $2 below Consensus at the time. Since then, RL has
become a battleground stock - w/bears convinced the brand is too big to grow - or
worse…"broken". Bulls still believe RL's new retail strategy (while more expensive &
taking longer than expected to boost rev growth) can start to work by FY17 - and EPS
growth can reaccelerate to the high end of the peer group as margins begin to recover
Industry Checks: It's Rough Out There, But There are Still RL Positives Ahead
DeleteWe believe that during RL's May report, it will point to a global cost restructuring (that it eluded to on
the F3Q call)—which could include significant headcount reductions (both in the US & internat'l) that
should help convince investors RL is serious about right-sizing what bears have long-assumed is a bloated
cost structure. Importantly, we believe RL will also announce that Polo Sport will launch (limited) Fall '15
distribution w/premier US athletic retailers (like DKS). While athletic channel distribution will initially be
too small to meaningfully boost RL's revs, it should help create an "authenticity halo" that could help
position Polo Sport to become a bigger long-term growth driver.
What's the Stock Worth? Reasonable Base Case Doesn't Support a Buy Yet
We prefer to wait for more details to boost conviction in a LT EPS acceleration, or wait for an entry point
at/below the current mkt P/E (currently 17.2x vs RL at 18.8x Cons FY16E today) to compensate for
reduced LT visibility today. We could see a base case where EPS could accelerate to a 13-14% LT EPS
CAGR by FY17 as investments slow & w/margins 450bp below peak. Based on FY16 guidance, that
would result in FY17E EPS of $7.90-$8.20. But applying a mkt P/E to reflect low conviction in that
scenario today would only translate to a $136-$141 stock price in a yr (+1%-5% stock upside).
Valuation: Maintain $143 Price Target and Neutral Rating
Our $143 price target is based on 17.5x our FY17E EPS of $8.18 (+13.5% YOY).
Thinking out loud, in my simpleton mind (I'm not kidding), I wonder if RL deserves a larger market cap than JCP?
Delete"Be wary of retailers who claim profitability in omni-channel
"I think the fallacy you hear today and it kind of surprises me as all these companies want to talk about, well their direct business is growing faster and this is happening and their direct channel is their most profitable channel.Well, it all depends on how you’re allocating cost. I don’t know how you make more money when sales shift from retail to direct, right, because your occupancy cost doesn’t go down. Your overhead doesn’t go down. So I think there is a lot of companies that are out there." ($RH)
It is expensive to handle the goods, to ship them and fulfill them
"everybody is all excited because they are growing their direct business and they are missing their earnings, right, because they are finding out that it’s expensive to handle the goods, to ship the goods and so on and so forth and fulfill the goods." ($RH)"
http://skrisiloff.tumblr.com/post/115396858980/heres-what-ceos-are-saying-about-the-economy
RL is a brand though...much different business than a retailer.
DeleteI think you could buy RL now and almost certainly make money over the next few years, but think your annual return will be under 10% at current prices with the way the business looks to be growing.
DeleteSo either we need to wait for cheaper prices or see faster growth coming through
DeleteRe the currency, if I was an American, I'd definitely be looking to use the high US$ to purchase cheap foreign assets. IT may not be completely done going up, but it is near the higher end of it's range against many currencies.
ReplyDeleteIs it too late now to be afraid, LOL.?
ReplyDeleteMade an add to Canadian energy company TBE.TO. COuld have just as easily added to BXE, but the TBE position was smaller.
ReplyDeleteI like the way the large energy companies have moved up off their lows, but the small ones are still languishing. This is pretty typical in a bottoming process where people move into the safer stocks first, then expand into the higher risk/reward ones. Plus, oil seems to have found a bottom, so this could be the long term bottom of the cycle.
Not super confident in this, so it was just a small add, but I think I will just keep adding a bit here and there to these energy companies and watch what happens.
Talk about a long shot, this dude might get his own ass waxed in the process..... Doesn't sound like a 2nd party can have this guy do his dirty work though.... LOL, Perhaps at a substantially higher price?
ReplyDeleteWinning bid receives an ass-kicking from me personally. I am 6'0" and weigh over 230 lbs. If you win this auction, I will personally come to your house and kick your ass........... .........Upon my arrival, I will select a random time to come over and kick your ass. It may be when you are sleeping, or showering, or any other time during the day/night when you are most vulnerable."
(Minimum bid: $100,000,099.00)
By the way, I do like BAC as well. I think the value is there and the timing could be good for a purchase with the real estate market and general economy improving. I haven't bought, mainly because I already have high financial exposure. None are directly affected by the US housing market as BAC is, so I'm still thinking about buying, but I do have exposure to banking in general (all European), exposure to investment banking (DB) and exposure to rising interest rates through my US based insurers.
ReplyDeleteCommodities look to finish strong. Crude oil +6%, spot gold +1.5%, miners +4%.
ReplyDelete(a) RYTNX closed +1% at the 1030 est window.
(b) Will close RYEIX (Rydex Energy) end of day. XLE currently +2.12%
(c) Will close RYVIX (Rydex Oil Services) end of day. OIH currently +4.1%.
(d) Will close RYPMX (Rydex Precious Metals) end of day. GDX (miners) currently +3.6%.
(e) Will close RYGBX (Rydex 1.2 Government Long Bond) end of day. TLT currently -0.6%.
(f) Closing INTC (Intel) @ 31.15 for a minor gain.
The field bet (miners) paid off. The place bets as well, with the exception of the long bond.
Second half of PBR off @ 6.8x. It cleared 7 intraday, but pulling back fast.
ReplyDelete'Line of Duty' follows in the tradition of great BBC productions. Season 1 blew me away. Now up to Episode 5 of Season 2, which has been even better.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/04/20150405_beer.jpg
ReplyDeleteVALE sold all, more I think about less I want to be in this space now.
ReplyDeleteI do wonder about the stocks in the steel supply chain like VALE going forward. It seems like China has done a lot of its industrial build out, so not sure what future demand would be like. Saw a guy on CNBC at lunch today buying Peabody Coal thinking the bottom might be in, but so hard to know over here in North America what is happening in China
ReplyDeleteLots of reversals today
ReplyDeleteSmall position in RYTPX (Rydex 2x Inverse SPX) at the close.
ReplyDeleteBetter than even odds we test last weekend's lows (as displayed via futures) on the SPX.
DeleteI agree. Today just felt really weak.
DeletePCRX - At support here.
ReplyDeleteTOF- I wasn't even here and it felt weak to me. Probably a good idea to trim and shorten trade durations.
ReplyDeleteSCO - Probably would've been a good short entry today, didn't realize it hit $54 resistance.
ReplyDeleteThe commodity stocks have been quite good the last week or so and the energy smallcaps had a great day today. Maybe we are just seeing some profit taking in stocks which have done well to move into beaten down commodities.
ReplyDeleteEveryone knows that market is extended, when it stops nobody knows.
DeleteMy take is with you BB, ROTATION is going on from stronger sectors to beaten down, unless your hopping in/out like 2nd, I doubt most people are making headway and that may be why it feels weak.
just saying
Yeah I feel like everyone (that isn't a day trader or inherently bearish) is kind of in the same boat: haven't sold anything but just wondering when we move out of this range.
DeleteGood move out of BAC today. Nice to see FCAU bounce back a bit too.
http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/strategy/our_gambling_culture
ReplyDeleteEYES movin
ReplyDeletewow +18% on
ReplyDeleteThe first implant was performed as part of a phase I pre-clinical study.
http://www.streetinsider.com/Corporate+News/Second+Sight+Medical+%28EYES%29+Successfully+Implants+Model+of+Orion+I+Visual+Cortical+Prosthesis/10441066.html
Hard to play these news-driven stocks.
DeleteNice, Orion eh?
DeleteThis was well known in advance for anyone that knew the story. This company has so much promise its ridiculous. But lots of risk as well, of course.
DeleteAmazing can get an 18% move on the publication of known information. Are you still long?
DeleteWell the implant wasn't known news but the fact they were on the verge of doing this was. I sold in the $17s. I still like the stock as a trade. Almost bought at $12. Oh well.
DeleteCP - Orion is the one that attaches directly to the brain, bypassing the need to attach to the retina. It opens up the patient population at least 10x.
DeleteBAC sold,
ReplyDeletemkt skittish, could just be oil give back
do not want to be a bag holder
Nice trade. I'm building out a position for a while so trying to think longer term with it.
DeleteI think you will do well, but they do jig it alot.
DeleteBank of America Corp. (NYSE: BAC) has managed to cut its massive legal costs, but it has depended on other cost cuts to maintain profitability. Trading profits turned to losses last quarter and that may continue. The consensus estimate calls for EPS of $0.30 on revenues of $21.51 billion, well above the $0.05 loss in the year ago quarter. Forward P/E is 9.46 and price-to-book ratio is 0.73. Shares closed most recently at $15.51, compared with a consensus price target of $18.43. The potential gain on the stock is about 18.8%.
FWIW
from
http://247wallst.com/banking-finance/2015/04/07/ahead-of-earnings-which-bank-stock-is-cheapest/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+typepad%2FRyNm+%2824%2F7+Wall+St.%29
STT is interesting also in that space
DeleteStrange, BALT getting bought out but stock down 10% and acquirer Genco up 6%.
ReplyDeleteGreece is considering a bad bank mechanism to soak up some of the NPLs in the banking system. I would imagine that could provide a huge boost to NBG. Something I've been looking at today.
ReplyDeleteWhat happened to my "name your price tool", doesn't seem to be working.........
ReplyDeleteBAC - Trading losses, eh? Wonder if that was energy related, they downgraded only AFTER oil fell through it's azz, which should've been a piece of cake given supply/demand fundamentals as production was growing by leaps and bounds.
ReplyDeleteSCO - Have a look at this chart....... Getting ready to break to upside?
"Fitch Ratings-London-07 April 2015: The Greek government's intention to create a "bad bank" is a positive step towards achieving reform because it recognises that high volumes of non-performing loans (NPL) are impeding new lending, Fitch Ratings says. Nevertheless, banking sector reform proposals included in a broader package presented to eurozone partners on 1 April 2015 appear insufficient relative to the scale of the problems faced by Greek banks, despite potential benefits for banks' asset quality and liquidity.
ReplyDeleteThe package describes banking sector deficiencies as 'critical'. We agree with this and believe failure of the banks is a real possibility, as indicated by the 'CCC' ratings assigned to the country's largest banks.
NPLs have reached staggeringly high levels. Fitch estimates that domestic NPLs at National Bank of Greece, Piraeus Bank, Eurobank Ergasias and Alpha Bank (which together account for around 95% of sector assets) reached EUR72bn at end- 2014, equivalent to 35% of combined domestic loans. Net of reserves, Greek NPLs reached a high EUR30bn and still exceeded the banks' combined equity.
The proposal to create an asset management company, or bad bank, using remaining funds from the Hellenic Financial Stability Fund (HFSF), to deal with NPLs is potentially positive for the banks' asset quality. The asset manager may also help banks' weakened liquidity position if they, for example, receive HFSF-related funds in exchange for transferred NPLs.
However, the asset manager is unlikely to provide a material near-term solution to Greek banks' asset quality problems unless it is highly geared. This is mainly because the volume of NPLs held by Greek banks vastly exceeds the EUR10.9bn HFSF buffer that would serve as capital for the bad bank."
The funding profile of the asset manager is still unclear. Fitch notes that Spain's bad bank model, which hinged on government guaranteed bond issuance, with bonds qualifying for discount at the ECB, is unlikely to be replicated in Greece as Greek bonds cannot currently be pledged as collateral to the ECB. Fitch anticipates that Greek banks would still need to retain (and finance) sizeable stocks of unreserved NPLs, constraining future credit growth.
DeleteFurthermore, establishing correct values for the troubled loans will be difficult given the exceptionally challenging operating conditions. Therefore any transfers to an asset manager are likely to require asset write-downs, potentially further eroding banks' solvency.
Fitch notes that Ireland and Spain's bad banks have helped restructure balance sheets - but in these cases, troubled loans transferred to bad banks were linked to real estate. This is not the case in Greece where impairments are spread across all segments, making it more difficult to identify loans eligible to be transferred to an asset manager and to establish appropriate haircuts.
Proposals to introduce supervisory reform are potentially positive but will also be challenging to implement within a short timeframe, particularly in view of the period of extreme stress that the country is undergoing.
The proposals include a suggestion that NPLs should be resolved in a "socially fair" manner, which along with further wording, appears to hint at potential creditor unfriendliness. Fitch is uncertain whether some debt forgiveness is on the cards and whether the proposals point to state-directed lending ambitions. Similarly, proposals include expansion of the role of the Bank of Greece to encompass consumer protection, a function which, in other countries, often includes debtor-friendly measures.
DB and other big boys should have tremendous insight on where the deals are, wouldn't that translate to outsized gains opportunities for these big boys with big pockets?
DeleteSold another 1/3 of my ORI (Old republic Insurance) and bought some more CKI.TO. CKI.TO is my largest holding, and I was hesitant about adding, but they just completed a share buyback and, with the new shares outstanding, the discount to book is pretty much at the highest it ever gets to, so downside is limited. Plus, they are in the process of simplifying their business and being shareholder friendly, so looking to increase value unlike many companies.
ReplyDeleteBALT- Man, that must be one complicated MOFO.
ReplyDeleteStill seems like anything in the steel supply chain (iron ore, copper, coal, dry bulk shippers) are under a lot of pressure.
DeleteI still think Greece end up out of the Euro and am staying away. May be being overly pessimistic, but still Greece and Europe/Germany don't seem to be agreeing on much. If they do get the boot and their stocks get trashed, that would be an interesting time to pick through the wreckage.
ReplyDeleteI think I agree with this. It seems like there could be more fallout. The bad bank thing is a start but it sounds like they don't have enough capital so they may be willing to wipe out their banks' equity holders to get that capital.
DeleteStill holding tanker company NAT and it is hanging in their about a buck above my purchase. Hated buying at 3 years highs, but working out so far.
ReplyDeleteInteresting article on how the Iranian oil coming to market could dramatically push up tanker rates as they look to sell all the oil they've been holding due to the embargo.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/3046736-tanker-market-could-see-a-100-percent-jump-in-vlcc-rates-if-this-happens
I picked up some DGLY today after that South Carolina shooting. Bought it at $13.7
ReplyDeletehttp://frankzorrilla.blogspot.com/2015/04/taser-and-digital-ally-might-be-in-play.html?spref=tw
DeleteWow - brutal.
DeleteGood thing the guy with the camera was there or you wonder if it ever would have come to light.
Yeah. I think lawmakers proposed the body cameras thing but kind of put it on the back burner hoping things would die down a bit. This latest video is a big catalyst for this getting implemented everywhere. Not sure of the ultimate winners but I made good money in DGLY last year on this same time of movement and it seems to me that this is a bigger catalyst in some ways than Ferguson. We'll see.
DeleteI closed RYTPX (Rydex 2x Inverse SPX) @ the 1030 est window. My expectation was that I would take about a -0.8% hit on the position (the SPX was up about +0.4% at 1030)- in fact, it closed @ 23.73, the same price at which I opened last night.
ReplyDeleteNever a dull moment in the markets:
(a) Oil is trading off -6% today on news of record output by Saudi Arabia.
(b) FXI (China 'H' Shares) +6% following a +4% rally in the Hang Seng (which reopened after a 4-day holiday) + a new 52-wk high in the Shanghai Composite. Not surprisingly, EEM is up +1.8%.
(c) Following release of the FOMC minutes earlier in the day (revealing a 'hawkish' tone re interest rate hikes), US indexes gave up earlier gains and are now trading flat. Treasury yields have likewise pulled back, with TLT (the long bond) trading flat.
(d) Miners selling off -1%.
I'm considering reopening RYTPX at the close + adding a position in RYWYX (Rydex 2x Inverse Emerging Markets).
Reopening PBR (Petrobras) @ 6.86. The stock opened @ 7.20 and traded as high as 7.23 before pulling back near the close. I think it's worth another shot here.
ReplyDeletePretty flat day for a FOMC minutes day.
ReplyDeleteWe are starting to get into earnings now (AA today, but really last week of April/first week of May). Seems like the pattern lately is a weak start for earnings, then the market recovers and does well as more earnings come out. Earnings expectations are low, but the stock market is still pretty near it's highs, so will be interesting to see how it plays out this quarter.
From BEspoke:
"Due to a variety of factors including weather, lower energy prices, the stronger dollar, West Coast port closures, etc., companies have been cautious in their outlooks and that has led analysts to continue cutting already reduced earnings forecasts. As of last Friday, analysts had lowered forecasts for 392 more companies in the S&P 1500 over the last month than they had raised forecasts for over that same period. On a net basis, this difference works out to 26.1% of the stocks in the entire index. "
Industrial Disease?
DeleteOpening small positions in RYTPX (Rydex 2x Inverse SPX) + RYWYX (Rydex 2x Inverse Emerging Markets) at the close.
ReplyDeleteDGLY - Oh man, pretty big short float those guys gonna get run over again?
ReplyDeletePretty flat day for a FOMC minutes day.
ReplyDeleteWe are starting to get into earnings now (AA today, but really last week of April/first week of May). Seems like the pattern lately is a weak start for earnings, then the market recovers and does well as more earnings come out. Earnings expectations are low, but the stock market is still pretty near it's highs, so will be interesting to see how it plays out this quarter.
From BEspoke:
"Due to a variety of factors including weather, lower energy prices, the stronger dollar, West Coast port closures, etc., companies have been cautious in their outlooks and that has led analysts to continue cutting already reduced earnings forecasts. As of last Friday, analysts had lowered forecasts for 392 more companies in the S&P 1500 over the last month than they had raised forecasts for over that same period. On a net basis, this difference works out to 26.1% of the stocks in the entire index. "
Doing some work on stuff tonight and what I found interesting is people say we've had this great bull market, we are really extended, etc, but reality is the return for the last 5 years for the S&P 500 is just over 12% per year. Higher than the long term average, but not outrageous.
ReplyDeletePrior to that, we had the big move off the bottom, but that was preceded by the large bear market in 2008 - 2009, so they kind of offset.
But regardless, the important thing in my mind is we are nowhere near a super overvalued market as many contend.
Heading out to Phoenix tonight for a couple weeks vacation. We rented a condo on a golf course (I think they almost all are on golf courses!). Plan to do some hiking and golfing and biking and general exploring. Plan to take my laptop and keep tabs on the market and maybe even get some work done, but hopefully come back with a larger portfolio than when we leave.
ReplyDeleteBB, can you do this?
Deletehttp://www.nydailynews.com/sports/more-sports/master-insider-nicklaus-hits-hole-in-one-par-3-contest-article-1.2178277
Taking the +3% gain on PBR (Petrobras) @ the open. Closed @ 7.14.
ReplyDeleteOpened Goldcorp @ 18.50.
ReplyDeleteMUX- LOL, if things aren't bad enough they get robed as well!
ReplyDeleteMexico has the highest incidents of missing persons too, higher than Somalia?
DeleteEYES - This one simply tested the 50 day moving average support, notice the coincidental timing of the Orion announcement.....
ReplyDeleteBB- Have a great trip. I get to go to Livermore Sat. and Pleasanton on Sunday. Good times :(
ReplyDelete(a) RYTPX (Rydex 2x Inverse SPX) off at the 1030 window. SPX trading flat.
ReplyDelete(b) RYWYX (Rydex 2x Inverse Emerging Markets) off at the 1030 window. EEM +0.5%.
Goldcorp off @ 18.77.
ReplyDeleteAA - Uh huh, Alcoa not exactly on fire.
ReplyDeleteYo fellas. Got going late this morning after camping out in our backyard with my son.
ReplyDeleteI picked up some TASR today at $26.9. I looked closer at the fundamentals on this and it only trades at 40x FCF. They have only penetrated between 5 and 7% of the total market for body cams in the US. And there's a significant recurring stream to these sales. I think it hits the $33 it hit back in 2004.
How do we get a piece of the Tehran stock exchange?
ReplyDeleteFremont, Ca. (TSLA's home) - Made the top of list for localities that pay the most taxes on income. Arlington, Va. scored very high as well.
ReplyDelete(a) RYTPX closed the 1030 est window @ +23.66 (0.34%).
ReplyDelete(b) RYWVX closed the 1030 est window @ 15 (-0.79%).
I had equal positions in both, so a net -0.45% loss on a small position.
(c) PBR now +7% to 7.40.
I forgot to mention that I sold my FCAU this morning at about $16.8 avg. I didn't really have a reason for doing it just a suspicion it would sell off.
ReplyDeleteAlmost added more BAC in $15.50's today but snoozed. Hope that wasn't the last chance.
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ReplyDeleteYRCW - At lower support resistance.
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