Sunday, July 19, 2015

7/19/15 She just changes her mind



'Oh, and she never gives out and she never gives in,
She just changes her mind.
And she'll promise you more than the garden of Eden
then she'll carelessly cut you and laugh while you're bleeding,
But she brings out the best and the worst you can be.'

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D4nQB3V10i8

I was shopping at the local Safeway this morning when the Muzak floated an old Billy Joel song, one I haven't heard in decades.  As I descended the stairs to the parking garage my mind transposed memories of college life in the Seventies with an image of Gordon Gekko- the perfect song to have floated over the closing credits to 1987's 'Wall Street.'

101 comments:

  1. Bought a ticket on TZOO today, so popped over to look at the stock and I guess they must have had a bad Q2 as the stock tanked a few days ago back below $10, pretty much at a 5 year low.

    TOF, you still watching this one?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yeah I check in on it from time to time but haven't looked at the financials in a little while. Too much competition in that space

      Delete
  2. Amazon Prime recommendation of the week: 'Son of a Gun' with Ewan McGregor. It starts out as a 2015 version of 'The Glass House,' and transitions into a prison break/heist.

    http://www.imdb.com/title/tt2452200/

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  3. Replies
    1. Crushed. Great sign that scared money is coming out and probably going into stocks.

      Delete
  4. Flash crash in gold/silver underway in Hong Kong: http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html. This may be the flush down that signals capitulation, in which case it's a bullish development and I'm glad it's happening in the overnight markets.

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  5. Shark attack caught live

    http://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/shocked-mother-watches-australian-surf-pro-son-fight-huge-shark/article1-1371076.aspx

    Adrenalin rush

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  6. (a) It certainly looks like capitulation in gold: http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html. Miners are off -3.6% pre-market. Let's see where they close.
    (b) EXAS (Exact Sciences) announces 'in-line' results for Q2.

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  7. AMZN - A double this year from last Christmas?

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  8. ABX- That's about as straight down as you see.

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    Replies
    1. Makes me wonder what changed, all of a sudden.

      Delete
  9. Most miners are down between 8-9%! Tough call for me right here. If I were in cash, I'd be nibbling. Having nibbled Friday, I'm reluctant to add, and in fact have to seriously weigh my usual rule of taking losses immediately.

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  10. I thought ENPH would get some VSLR love today. WRONG!

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  11. OIH - Energy exploration and production for fun and no profit.

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  12. GGN - Dividend on this one is 15%, right?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. So whatever happened to the TOG ????!!??? Pure BS?

      Delete
    2. That was always meant for the NEXT generation.

      Delete
  13. Was talking to my gold bug friend. He said that he will be right on gold, but it just might not be in our lifetimes.

    Wasn't sure what to make of that...

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  14. AKS - Trades like BTU.... Steel is being eliminated from our environment.

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  15. Midday trading now has GDX (miners) down -8.63%. My thoughts re the next 24 hours:

    (a) Today's selloff (on top of a -24% decline since May) appears sufficiently brutal to break the backs of long-term investors. GDX set to close -33% below May highs.
    (b) Margin calls + the likelihood that even liberally placed stops are being run add a sharp edge to the panic.
    (c) I love to buy panic.
    (d) I would place 20% odds on a violent reversal within the next 24 hours.
    (e) I would also place 20% odds that the selling continues. However, I think the emotional intensity of any additional selling will ebb.
    (f) My total position in the sector is small enough to absorb today's decline, and even a further decline on Tuesday.

    I won't add to existing positions, but I plan to hold existing positions another 24 hours.

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  16. URG - Uranium is out the window too. Looking forward to the election rally.

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  17. No mercy in the mining sector today. The kind of day that underscores the emotional nature of trading. It's also the kind of day that underscores the importance of position sizing as a defensive backstop. For every seller there is a buyer. Is it a day to buy, or a day to sell? There are no guarantees, only probabilities.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pRrFWp4DUho

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I tried ABX at the close but didn't fill.

      Delete
    2. It sure is tempting to start buying some miners. They seem way overdone to the downside relative to the price of gold. I think many of these gold stocks are pricing in much lower gold prices. The one which I probably like the best now, ASR.TO was only down 4.5%, so just watching.

      I guess my big concern is still $25 billion or so in the GLD ETF, so maybe more needs to come out before this is done.

      Delete
    3. There was a guy on CNBC today saying compared to oil, gold is to expensive. I think he was saying 16x the price of oil...so 16x50= 800??

      Delete
    4. I kind of see $800 as the ultimate target for gold, but it might not get that low, and I think we may be seeing some panic selling in the miners now to get them so cheap they are worth buying at $800 or $1,100 gold.

      Going to try and do some more digging this week and see what the valuations are really like for these miners at various prices.

      Delete
  18. Mercy Mercy Mercy

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-07-19/mick-fanning-clashes-with-shark-in-south-africa-surfing-event/6632214

    Okay you got it

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  19. HTZ - Straight back into the toilet.

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  20. http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2015/07/how-cheap-are-the-gold-miners/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+TheBigPicture+%28The+Big+Picture%29

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  21. (a) Most stocks in the mining sector retracing between 25-30% of yesterday's declines in extended hours trading. The key will be where they close.
    (b) EXAS (Exact Sciences) will open -6% below Monday's close. Why? The company will offer an additional 7 million shares, which will increase the float by 8%.

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  22. ABX- Bummer. OK BB. Lets us know what you find!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Would have been a good buy - top performing stock on the TSX today. Must have been some margin call selling in the PM stocks yesterday, but people doing some bargain hunting today. President of New Gold on BNN talking about how company valuations are lowest he's ever seen and, that while we may not be at the bottom, we are certainly closer to the bottom than the top. Obviously talking his book, but makes sense to me.

      Delete
  23. Do any of you guys use Uber/Lyft?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I have a colleague who also works at another location, and he tells me many of the younger women use Uber to/from work.

      Delete
  24. Checking out SEDG. Basically exactly the opposite of how ENPH works.

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  25. SWC - Hadn't seen this one that low in quite a while.

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  26. GDX (miners) up +5% in early trading, which represents a 50% retracement of yesterday's decline and probably a resistance level. We should expect a retest of the lows, which would present an xlnt buying opp.

    (a) FCX closed @ 15.75 for a small gain.
    (b) Reopening a trading position in EXAS (Exact Sciences) @ 25.26, a -6.5% discount from yesterday's close.

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  27. FB/ZTS - Additions to #1 USA list.

    dow down while gold up..... Yeah, sure.

    ReplyDelete
  28. ENPH - Perhaps the power wall is responsible for the recent weakness?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Magic number today is 5.82....and so there I wait :)

      Delete
    2. OMG, you're kidding.... Oh wait, I said that once before already, huh?...

      ARR - Is that dividend really $3.96 (139%) ?

      Delete
  29. MMYT - I don't believe this shit, pure BS.

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  30. I feel like at some point there's gonna be a rotation out of high-flying banks and into the beaten down stuff. How far off from reality is this expectation?

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  31. Was Biden punched out by the Iatola Kohmeanie?

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  32. BC - I can imagine this one taking off. The reason is opposite of the reason boat manufacturers always struggle, high energy prices...

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  33. ISIS - Using s/w from the only company that doesn't have a back door for their encryption. Wonder how ISIS knew this, US government army has inside info maybe?

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  34. GPRO- Yes, I know I'm going to get killed here.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You're holding? I have good news and bad news. The good news is my wife asked about August calls. The bad news is she didn't follow through.

      Delete
    2. Yep. From 70 to 35 where I added to now! It's a wild one.

      Delete
  35. (a) I ended up scaling out of all mining positions throughout the day.
    (b) I now plan to close RYPMX (Rydex Precious Metals) end of day for a tepid +3% gain against yesterday's -10% loss. Why? I need to see more conviction behind the bounce. It's bad enough that miners are barely above +3%, but gold itself is trading off another -$8/oz! Gold has every reason to trade higher given today's -0.7% decline in the $USD. Instead, it's moving the other way. I hate to use the term 'red flag' when just about every red flag has proven to be a red herring in a very difficult trading environment.
    (c) Closing RYVIX (Rydex Energy Services) end of day on today's strength in oil (+1.4%) and oil services (+1.2%).

    The portfolio was dented -0.8% by the mining debacle, despite very small position sizes. It could have been much worse had I not driven defensively (sizing down, selling into a dead cat bounce), or driven under the influence (of hubris and/or panic).
    ________________________________________

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  36. CHK (Chesapeake) hits another 52-wk low on a dividend cut.

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  37. Been on vacation. I closed QCOM and SOXL for a gain and loss, offsetting. Closed cmg short for a gain. Holding mmyt which is my only long term holding right now. I will trade some around it but I think it has a 5x upside potential over next few years.

    Have my puts account setup for xbi / ibb. Planning my first options trade in a while

    ReplyDelete
  38. Bb I meant to clarify on tzoo. I refuse to buy second tier Internet stocks anymore. It is a competitive space just like any other internet space but the leaders have significant moats in the form of network size and traffic to their site / apps. Mmyt has a near 50% mkt share in online travel in India. Top line growth appears to be slowing but if you look at transactions on their site / app it's still showing 40%+ growth and India is significantly under penetrated in terms of broadband internet. Mary meeker and Jeff gundlach recently wrote about the opportunity in India. Meeker has some credibility issues but not gundlach

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Relative to sales mmyt is the cheapest Internet travel site amongst the leaders in each market. Trades at about 2.5 to 3x sales. Margins are improving significantly due to higher margin hotels transactions which are making almost 50% of sales now. Compare this to Ctrp with a $10b + mkt cap and trading at a huge premium relative to sales. I bet mmyt gets a major momo run at some point over next couple of years. Better to start buying it now when interest is low (I believe there's like 10 posts on yahoo finance, 90 followers on stocktwits, rarely any posts on Twitter...again compare this to interest in Ctrp or qunr or pcln)

      Delete
  39. Not like everyday isn't a freaking vacation for you beach boy, but where are you guys?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Ha. Up in big bear camping

      Delete
    2. Damn, Big Bear is where the guy I hitchhiked out to California with was headed when we went our separate ways in San Bernardino.

      Delete
  40. ENOC - Gonna jump on this one soon or what?

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  41. In case you didn't know this:

    http://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/makemytrip.com

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  42. ARR - Triple bottom... What's up with that dividend?

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  43. Early indications in fact indicate yesterday's red flag was no red herring. GDX (miners) set to retest Monday's lows. In addition, OIH (oil services) looks ready to give up all of Tuesday's gains at the open.

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  44. REXX - Hey REXX. where ya' going man?

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  45. FCAU - There ya' go, follow up response to the latest round of IPO hoopla.

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  46. SID - New 52 wk low, sure seems like China has hit a wall absent the export market they used to enjoy.

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  47. TOF,

    I've been thinking about getting back into the tankers like NAT as their fundamentals continue to do well, but they've had a good jump since I sold, so won't without a pullback. I think the dry bulk shippers like NM are probably to early still (until China steel production bottoms), but the Dry bulk index has had a good bounce, so maybe it is sustainable this time

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  48. One of the mid-tier value investor guys on BNN yesterday saying he probably will never buy another energy stock in his life - good to hear, maybe things ar getting washed out.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. REXX is only down 11%, and JONE is back to making new lower lows.

      Delete
  49. NM, have been watching but missed the run up, has a div of 5.5% which I like.

    The chart shows resistance in the JAN to MAR period of 2015, break that and a run to 5.75 - 6.00 looks doable.

    Baltic Dry has been on a run too

    http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Had a good bounce last summer too - seems to be a strong seasonal time on average looking at the 5 year. Don't know enough to say if fundamentals have flipped or not.

      Delete
  50. SCON Seems to be taking off, maybe.

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  51. TEP - The experts aren't forecasting this move.
    ZTS - I'll stop posting ideas.

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  52. TCK - Been a while since this traded at $8, wonder if there's some message in this price?

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  53. The thing I find the most intriguing with the shippers is the lower fuel costs. No idea what impact that has.

    Fro / nat have been huge winners. Wouldn't be surprised to see the same out of the dry bulkers since sentiment sucks so bad

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. We have to assume they all hedge right?

      Delete
    2. The fundamentals for tankers is a lot better than dry bulk.

      With US importing less oil, more and more is being shipped to Asia, which takes twice as long, so twice as much use of ships. Because of this increased demand, prices are rising quickly and there is not a larger backlog of ships on order, so supply is increasing less quickly and should stay that way for a couple of years at least. Assuming Iran is allowed to start exporting again, that will be another source of increased demand.

      Dry bulk is under pressure as coal and iron shipping demand is falling due to less demand from China as it shifts to a consumer based economy and ship supply is still high.

      Delete
    3. Australia might fit in there somewhere also? In terms of coal, the distance is not terribly far. Watching EWA

      Delete
  54. Nice numbers out of GM this morning (finally). This shows the kind of profits they can generate if they can avoid more large recall and lawsuit costs. Still holding and it is very cheap, but has been quite frustrating. Will probably continue to hold as it looks like things are finally ready to take off.

    FWD P/E is 6, so analysts looking for $5.00 in earnings - this qtr was $1.29, so in the right ballpark. Stock up about 6% premarket.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Nice. I nearly bought some GM might still. It's been one heck of a trip down....

      Delete
    2. Still below where I bought it, but around break even with the dividends.

      The profitability model here finally coming through. Should get above $50 in the next year or so if they can execute well and the auto cycle doesn't turn (and I don't think it will)

      Delete
  55. Good profitability our of commercial/title insurer ORI as well.

    Interesting that their profits were up and book value at cost up nicely also, but their book value with assets at market value actually went down. I assume this is due to higher rates knocking back the value of some of their bond holdings, but the flip side is this will mean higher investment returns going forward.

    I'd ask about this on the concall, but am going golfing this-aft instead. If it doesn't get discussed, I will contact IR afterwards and see what they say.

    ReplyDelete
  56. Man, we had this one nailed!

    Dougherty & Co transferred coverage and downgraded Enphase Energy (NASDAQ: ENPH) from Buy to Neutral. Its price target was removed (prior $20.00).
    Analyst Andrea James said, "Enphase Energy (ENPH), a leading manufacturer of microinverters used in solar installations, has delivered strong growth since its 2012 IPO. But we believe that the pace of customer migration to competing technologies is accelerating."
    "NPH's products came to market in ~7 years ago and filled a market hole with easy-to-install rooftop micronverters for solar panels. Electricians adopted ENPH inverters en masse. This early innovation led to ENPH capturing about 45% of the residential solar inverter market in North America today ... But the market has continued to evolve and Enphase faces 1) new competition, 2) the emergence of energy storage, 3) a maturing distribution system, and 4) the expiration of a tax credit that helped to drive volumes (and therefore, margins). To point two, Enphase is developing its own storage solution versus making its system compatible with major players, including Tesla," added the analyst.

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  57. ISNS - What's going on with this one?

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  58. ZINC, very beat up, getting some love by Greenlight. On watchlist.

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  59. NM, failed at resistance. 3.90ish half way back.

    Markets trade weak, less is more.

    BB rockin GM AGO ORI

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  60. Somebody blew a horn somewhere....

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  61. FCAU

    http://www.forbes.com/sites/billvisnic/2015/07/19/ferrari-ipo-heres-how-you-can-own-a-piece-of-the-prancing-horse/

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  62. Coal is the issue, meanwhile "Each year in Washington, D.C., about 2 billion gallons of raw sewage is dumped into the Potomac River, the Anacostia River and Rock Creek, according to a report from the Washington Post."

    ReplyDelete