(a) DJIA futures +200 points.
(b) TLT (long-dated Treasurys) off -1.3% on top of
yesterday's -1.97% drop.
(c) $USD -1.05%, FXE (Euro) +1.55%.
(d) Gold/miners flat.
(e) EEM (emerging markets) bidding @ 38.44-> +2.5%
above Thursday's close, and +0.9% above the point at which I exited RYWVX @ the
1030 window. So the bounce has legs.
(f) FXI (China 'H' Shares) up another +5% after Shanghai
rallies another +5% overnight.
My take?
(a) If you want to reduce exposure by selling into
strength, this morning appears to be a good time.
(b) Buying opps setting up in miners and bonds.
I like Landry's comments today. It's a choppy market, and he interprets the Jesse Livermore quote re sitting as waiting patiently for the next trade.
ReplyDeleteCovered my SPY short earlier and my BIS recently. Took sizable hits today. In hindsight, really bad timing on those trades obviously. I've managed to dwindle my YTD gains down to a few percent. I still think there's a trade in BIS coming up, perhaps if IBB goes to around $380 and doesn't make new highs.
ReplyDeleteIt's a tough deceptive environment were in.
DeleteHere is vintage live Hendrix from 69 for over the weekend listening if inclined. What a guitar player!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=koxpJ7nhz2Y
Total Sweetness!!!! - Thanks for the link
DeleteI poured a cold one and fast-forwarded to 37:00.
DeleteI did buy some MU and SOXL today. Have been looking at GNTX and TRN (BB mentioned TRN).
ReplyDeleteGrabbed some AXP today.
ReplyDeleteI don't think you get a ton of opportunities to buy this at 13x earnings.
DeleteWouldn't be surprised if it was off to the races from here and we get say a 10%+ return the rest of the year.
ReplyDeleteI see risk coming down with greece hopefully resolved and a lot of people under invested due to fears about this, so any pullback being bought going forward making it hard to get in.
Lots of stocks got back to good buy points recently and hard to see a lot of them going much lower. Thinking things like ING, FCAU, CBI, AEG, AGO.
I agree. I ended up getting a lot more aggressive today and moved to about 90% long. Bought MU, SOXL, AXP, QCOM, MET, HNNA, FSFG, YRCW. Tried to focus on really cheap companies relative to earnings or book value. YRCW is the exception. Just bought that based on what I think is a breakout from a downtrend and I think they're still making improvements on earnings.
DeleteActually I was only able to get filled on 202 shares of HNNA. I've followed these guys for a long time. I once owned their shares around $4 way back in the day. They are family-owned investment managers and have had some really strong growth in assets under management. Their CEO is on CNBC from time to time.
DeleteI understand that being aggressive here comes with some risk. The potential for negative headlines out of Europe is a concern. But by focusing on what are either deeply oversold stocks or stocks that are very cheap relative to earnings / book etc., I feel like I'm insulating myself to the downside. In addition to the above, WMT is also cheap.
Delete(a) TLT now off -3.64% since Wednesday's close. Highly unusual.
ReplyDelete(b) Nymex oil futures off -7.4% for the week.
(c) RYWVX closed the 1030 window @ 55.62, up +2.87% from Thursday's close (but up just +1.64% from my close @ Thursday's 1030 window).
(d) DJIA now +233 points.
(e) GDX (miners) off -1.65% and threatening to set a new 52-wk low.
(f) Greece's Tsipras submits a proposal that basically says last week's fireworks were all a big misunderstanding!
(g) China investors get a two-day reprieve. I see a ton of overhead supply that makes any significant rally unsustainable.
Pretty murky environment, and not something I would not dive into head first.
A quote attributed to a well-known trader named Jesse Livermore (who made [and lost] today's equivalent of billions during the early 20th century): "[Traders] who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon. I found it one of the hardest things to learn. But it is only after a stock operator has firmly grasped this that he can make the big money.” The quote is generally used to support the idea of 'letting winners ride,' but more sophisticated traders interpret the comment in the context of patience. There is no need to trade until a low-risk entry presents itself.
Enough said.
Saturday I go out to play!
DeleteAlright, I spot the double negative, and hope there's no Freudian connection! Obviously, I meant to say either 'not something I would dive into head first,' or 'something I would not dive into head first.'
DeleteWhy is on the good day it's a gap up HOD and either selling into any strength or flat all day at best, while on a bad day the gap down is followed by steady selling.....
ReplyDeleteJuly 29 is the day the FED might raise rates, assuming they intend to.
ReplyDeleteSD - lol, right back into the toilet.
ReplyDeletePer Jessie Livermore, I think we are at a quite a low risk entry point to buy now because you have valuation support on a lot of stocks and macro risk is coming off. He was probably talking about momentum or bottom sequencing to provide the low risk entry and that can work too, but good valuation also provides this, in my opinion
ReplyDeleteSure, things could go a lot lower, but unless we have something dramatic like a crash or a 2008 sell everything type environment, I think you can pick some good stocks with pretty minima risk.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-10/ferrari-ipo-filing-to-come-in-days-fiat-chrysler-ceo-says
ReplyDeleteHendrix is Sooooo Smooth ... Thanks for posting the link ...
DeleteRe "It's a tough deceptive environment were in." ... It has the potential to get a lot less deceptive very shortly ...
http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp ... scroll down to '013SPX monthly' ... will be interesting to see how this resolves
Take care
A switch from monetary to fiscal support is in order.
ReplyDeleteNo outdoor play today, we had yet another drencher. this morning. Weeds are knee high in places, no telling if there's any real grass remaining or just undesirables.
ReplyDeleteOh man I wish we had a drencher just one time. Getting sunbleached over here. Just spent the morning at the beach and the kids are napping now.
DeleteAAPL - Okay, here's a question......... If the CEO of the company isn't a crony war monger, minority, gay or an extreme environmentalist then is there a compromised chance his company will ever be a beneficiary of generous subsidies?
ReplyDelete"Walmart suppliers grapple with challenge of "Made in USA" labels"
ReplyDeleteI bet China will provide these?
There's a few stocks I like to look at as litmus tests for the economy:
ReplyDeleteBID
WGO
BC
XHB
All of them look ok to me. Not really showing any ominous signs yet.
Up in Northern Michigan for the weekend and amazing how many places are trying to hire people. I know its cottage country and always a bit of a challenge, but seems like every other place is looking. Our hotel says "job openings, most positions, apply within".
ReplyDeleteI like seeing things like this as I think it shows the economy is successfully transitioning to a consumer one for the next leg up
How's the weather in Northern Michigan? My sister always tells me it's nothing like Southeastern Michigan in the summer (where the temp/humidity both hit the nineties)- up North it's usually pretty nice.
DeleteWhile you're up there let me know if you can give me any special info on FFNM (First Federal of Northern Michigan Bancorp)
DeleteWeather has been hot, low 80's, but nice by the lakes with cool breeze. We are in traverse city which is a nice city and had cherry festival, which is a big deal up here.
DeleteNo FFNM branches in town though
Kyle, yeah the MACD rolling over on monthly SPX. Glad you liked Hendrix.
ReplyDeleteEuropean Council President Donald Tusk used the term 'AGreekment' to announce that a third bailout deal had been struck. The use of 'word play' in reference to the Greek crisis has reached absurd levels. The bet placed by Tsipras with last Sunday's referendum lost big, as conditions attached to the revised bailout are significantly worse than those imposed earlier.
ReplyDeleteHeaded towards capitulation in miners, helped along by strength in the $UD (+0.6%). ABX (Barrick) and SLW (Silver Wheaton) already printing new 52-wk lows. GDX (majors) just pennies away from its own 52-wk low, FCX (Freeport McMoran) as well. We may even see new lows in GLD (gold) and SLV (silver).
ReplyDeleteGLD- There's no triple bottoms?
DeleteI bought some jdst for a trade today. Gold looks like it's ready to drop below its support on its way to 900
DeleteNaturally JDST tanks as soon as I buy it. I averaged down to $10.55. Will most likely close out today. Was hoping for some continuation / panic selling.
DeleteAEG - Rinse and repeat on this one, wait till Grease rejects the new terms on Wednesday?
ReplyDeleteAEG is trading at a huge discount to book. Pre crisis it was at 1 to 2x book. Now its at 0.58.
DeleteRBS was recently dumped in much the same manner. Not sure which would be the better to own.
DeleteYeah, I prefer to stick to US based companies. I own MET which is trading at a discount to book (0.86) as well...not as big of a discount but it is a much more stable business and has a reliable dividend yield with a low payout ratio that can go up.
DeleteI sold my MU position for a small gain. Looking to rotate it into some stuff I found over the weekend.
ReplyDeleteSold out of JDST at $10.6
ReplyDeleteYRCW looking really good. I have a 10% position in this and debated adding to it. Looks like I should have.
ReplyDeleteI forgot to keep watching.
DeletePGAL - Sure looks like a hammer, might be bearish?
ReplyDeleteGBX - Still working for me... amazing.
ReplyDeletePSEC - 7/29 ex-div, guess it goes up now as chasers jump on?
ReplyDeleteTrying MU again. Definitely trying to catch a falling knife here but if this isn't a major cyclical downturn for the business then this is trading at a steep discount at a 5.5 p/e on TTM earnings and 4.1 EV / EBITDA on TTM EBITDA. These are much lower than SNDK / WDC so I'm hoping for at least a bounce here and potentially a substantial rally if the fears of a downturn subside.
ReplyDeleteSold SOXL for a 1.5% gain. Too much exposure to this sector with MU and QCOM holdings. Plus, finding some other interesting spots to put my money.
ReplyDeleteEnded up taking profits in most of my positions. Just thinking we may see a pullback later in the week that presents a good buying opportunity. Plus, with that gap down from 2 weeks ago essentially getting filled today, there may be some overhead supply coming into the market for the short term, again presenting better opportunities to go long on a drop. S&P has run about 50 pts in a few days so might be a reason to rest a little.
DeleteHolding FSFG, HNNA and mostly cash.
Long SPXS for a trade. Thinking we may see a 0.5% to 1% pullback here as people sell into resistance. Not willing to risk too much though.
ReplyDeleteClosed that sucker out.
DeleteHey, where were all the experts two months ago, warning us of a bump in the road, eh?
ReplyDeleteRockville Md. - If you want a $200k income, look into working for the county.
ReplyDeleteBack into YRCW at $13.3x
ReplyDelete(a) The DJIA is (once again) +200 points.
ReplyDelete(b) On the other hand, GREK (Greece) has given up its +5% morning gains and is currently trading in the red -3.8%.
(c) GDX (miners) has recovered nicely to turn slightly green, as has OIH (oil services).
Opening (small) positions in RYGBX (Rydex 1.2x Government Long Bond), RYPMX (Rydex Precious Metals) and RYVIX (Rydex Energy Services) at the close. Trying for a single into right field.
Fitty-Scent ain't got two case quarters.....
ReplyDeleteBack long on SOXL, AXP, QCOM, also looking for singles.
ReplyDeleteLargest surplus in Va. History. So all the warnings of a tight budget were apparently false.
ReplyDeleteBryon Wien, very positive.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ToWLh2e502c
ReplyDeleteWeakness in oil stocks should not be used as a buying opportunity, Barclays analysts say, viewing shares as significantly overvalued and appearing to discount an average oil price of $85-$90/bbl based on group average historical multiples.
The firm removes Newfield Exploration (NYSE:NFX) and Cabot Oil & Gas (NYSE:COG) from its list of top oil and gas stocks, leaving only Canadian Natural Resource (NYSE:CNQ), EOG Resources (NYSE:EOG), Southwestern Energy (NYSE:SWN), Noble Energy (NYSE:NBL) and Concho Resources (NYSE:CXO).
Barclays' bottom group consists of five Underweight rated stocks - CHK, OTCQX:COSWF, PXD, OXY and UPL - while WPX Energy (NYSE:WPX) is bumped off the bottom list to reflect an improved outlook as well as a 20%-plus share price decline.
SWN - Isn't this one primarily natty (REXX too)? I guess if these other guys are in trouble over oil then gas production growth will slow along with oil?
DeleteBummer.
ReplyDeleteState-backed Chinese tech firm Tsinghua Unigroup is bidding $23B, or $21/share, for U.S. DRAM/NAND flash giant Micron (NASDAQ:MU), the WSJ reports.
The report has broken shortly after AH trading closed for the day. Odds are Micron rises sharply in premarket trading Tuesday morning. Shares closed today at $17.61.
With Micron having started the year trading in the mid-30s - shares were still in the mid-20s a few weeks ago - there's a good chance management rejects the offer, which could prove to simply be an opening bid. If Micron agrees to a deal with Tsinghua, U.S. regulators are likely to closely scrutinize it.
Man that is a bummer.
Deletehttp://www.reuters.com/article/2015/07/13/us-investing-greenlight-outlook-idUSKCN0PN2LA20150713?feedType=RSS&feedName=businessNews
DeleteIf this hit after hours it did not seem to affect the price
Re AEG, Contra the Heard has a writeup on why they chose AEG over the Canadian lifeco's - MFC, SLF, GWO.TO which are similar to MET. They appear more expensive, but really are pretty similar in valuations, but things like p/b and p/e are different because Canadian companies use IFRS and US companies use GAAP.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.contratheheard.com/cth/contraguys/150623.html
You can argue with their individual picks, but with a 15 year annualized return of 19%, you have to respect their process and ability.
I think pretty much all the lifeco's are good and own AEG, NWLI and POW.TO, which is the majority holder of GWO.TO (Candai's largest lifeco) and some other things. AEG and NWLI are very cheap and have I like that. POW.TO is a safe, large cap with a good dividend, but would be just as happy owning MET as POW.TO, but chose POW.TO for the tax advantages of holding Canadian stocks.
I've actually been working a lot on insurers today. Finding some decent ones. Interesting how different a bunch of these trade relative to book.
DeleteI can't believe the MU bid. Sucks. I had a 13% position in that. But I bought a 25% position in SOXL and MU is a 3% position in the SOX so hopefully it will net out to the same benefit to my portfolio...doubt it but you never know.
ReplyDeletePicked up some MU at 19.80
ReplyDeleteMU out at 19.73, that was fast
DeleteMU - My broker has a $35 target, says the bid is unrealistic.
ReplyDeleteLLY - This is about Alzheimer's.
ReplyDeleteSPWR/GPRO getting some love today.
ReplyDeleteStill in ENPH?
DeleteNo. I've been selling the rallies. I will try and find a spot for a LT hold. Hopefully when the market isn't this toppy.
DeleteMU- Hun.
ReplyDeleteCLMT - This one's a divy play. Did break out, was hoping for a downside move. But, notice the eurocrisis didn't take it down.. How about that thing, eh? Good products and new refinery in Montana, I think.
ReplyDeleteDowntown Josh Brown @ReformedBroker 19m19 minutes ago
ReplyDeleteFund Managers Holding Highest Cash Percentage Since Lehman http://dlvr.it/BWkR50
Which means the market rips higher in 3,2,1... right?
DeletecP - yeah seems like that. Lots of excessive bearishness lately
DeleteTSN - Notice this one went the opposite direction of WYNN? No fuckin way a food producer like this loses money unless they have to pay an outrageous minimum wage. Which could happen if a certain POTUS decided to increase minimum wage.
ReplyDeleteMTW - Just a bounce, or a reversal? Any bridges/infrastructure projects kicking off?
ReplyDeleteAdded to YRCW today and swapped my AXP for MET at the open
ReplyDeleteI looked closer at comparisons of all credit card companies and AXP is not cheaper than COF DFS SYF . I know some people say it deserves a premium due to its customer base but there's a reason they all trade at 12x eps. I'd guess it's because of electronic payments and gateways squeezing the card companies
DeleteWhat's your thinking on YRCW?
DeleteI haven't looked, but seem V and MA also taking share from AXP. Costco card loss was a big revenue hit for AXP, but they say not a major hit to profits due to card terms, but still not good.
DeleteYRCW - What got me interested in this is the chart setup and the fact that transports have underperformed for a while. Big falling wedge that looks like it's breaking out and retesting the breakout. I know the fundamental story really well...trades at .09 P/S while the lowest ratio its competitors trade at is .32. Most are at 0.8 or so. Operating margins continue to improve and if they can get back to the 5-6% net margins they had pre recession then they could do $140 Million in net profit (vs $430 Million market cap).
DeleteThat Byron Wien interview inspired me to buy some MMYT again. This is the one internet stock that I can think of that has the most long term potential. It's not that cheap of a stock and doesn't have earnings, but its an $800 Million company which is tiny. Look at competitors in different markets: $10 Billion for CTRP, $13 Billion for TRIP, $62 Billion for PCLN. Not saying it gets there but it has that potential.
ReplyDeleteXBI up 41.9% YTD...it’s freaking July 14th!
ReplyDeleteIf IBB continues to line up with the 1987 crash, then we will see a peak in mid August, followed by substantial weakness in September and a feeble rally attempt to old highs toward the end of September. This is exactly when I'll be looking to buy puts on XBI / IBB. I don't trade options anymore but I'm thinking a 35% drop out of nowhere in October would give you a 40-50x return on your money. So I'm thinking of putting a small amount in them and just writing it off. If it works, great, if not then no big deal. I asked my broker to add options to my account to take advantage of this.
ReplyDeleteI took off both SOXL and QCOM.
ReplyDeleteI actually really like QCOM here but I wanted to add a little to YRCW and keep some cash on hand. I think we rally until mid August.
DeleteCrude oil futures reverse from a -2% overnight decline on news of a nuclear 'deal' with Iran (which will lift sanctions on oil exports) to a +1.1% spike heading into the close. The DJIA continues to plow higher, now +90 points.
ReplyDelete(a) TLT (long-dated Treasurys) current bid +0.4%. RYGBX should close +0.5%.
(b) GDX (miners) current bid flat. RYPMX should close likewise.
(c) OIH (oil services) current bid +1.6%. RYVIX should close about the same.
(d) GREK (Greece) off -8.5% @ 9.85. Reopening a small position.
(e) VXX (Volatitily futures) -1.7% today, on top of a -17% drop over the previous two days. A -20% drop in the VIX has often preceded significant downside action in the short term. Opening a small position @ 17.61.
I'll call it a single.
Needless to say, I'm closing all three Rydex fund positions opened yesterday (I distrust any directional move from one day to the next). Unless things change, GREK + VXX will be overnight holds.
DeleteThe Social Security dilemma?
ReplyDeleteHere's a guy who is not only talking about the problem, but has changed Japan's $1.1t pension fund accordingly. Basically, add stocks to the mix.
http://www.wsj.com/articles/japan-pension-funds-investment-chief-nurtures-nations-nest-egg-1436514755
Trump leads the pack, with Jeb Bush in 2nd place.
ReplyDeleteSounds Good -- voted for Ross Perot years ago, looks like a similar script is playing out. We need someone who can take a BLOW TORCH and Stick it up the US Govts Ass & Clean it Out
DeleteHe's crafty, that's for sure. Wonder if a casino recovery rally occurs at some point?
DeleteCELG buys RCPT for $7 Billion. CELG up big. IBB at $391 after hours. Get ready for the blowoff move. Dust off those charts of GLD, PLUG, AMBA, etc. A big volume selloff will mark the top, then we should see a retest of the highs that gets rejected. That's the spot to short it.
ReplyDeleteGLD/PLUG - ? Both in downtrend....
DeleteWFC - CEO blamed higher rates for impacting their mortgage business?
ReplyDeleteKB - Why is ask $1 less than the close, doesn't make sense unless.....
ReplyDeleteGREK off @ 10.21 for a +4% gain.
ReplyDeleteNice bro.
DeleteSolid trade right there. Nice work.
DeleteBXE - This should be upgraded to $1.50 sometime soon. $10, LOL, sure...
ReplyDeleteStopped out of my YRCW at $12.8.
ReplyDeleteGood news for MMYT:
ReplyDeletehttp://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/services/retail/flipkart-in-advanced-talks-with-makemytrip-to-launch-a-ticketing-platform/articleshow/48075480.cms
Flipkart is a big e-commerce player in India.
Stopping out of VXX @ 17.50. I have no doubt volatility will take off soon, but the position itself is too volatile for a 'wait and see.'
ReplyDeleteTrying a long shot. ENPH @ 6.20.
ReplyDeleteThat was ez! :)
DeleteWhere are the tracker-jacker bio-engineered bees?
ReplyDeleteBMY - No triple tops....
ReplyDeleteIBB / XBI pretty big reversals today. Lacking big volume though so most likely just a gap fill then trending higher is my guess. Need to see same exact action as today with heavy volume pouring in. That's the signal to buy puts in my opinion.
ReplyDeleteAfter today I need a Tequilla Mockingbird.
ReplyDelete(a) OIH (oil services) -3.3%, tracking a -3% decline in oil futures (USO -3% as well). XLE (Energy) -1.7%. Good example of the current 'chop' in markets.
ReplyDelete(b) TLT (long bond) continues to climb, +1%.
(c) GDX (miners) off another -2.28%. A good example of taking losses immediately (my position in RYPMX closed off -0.8% yesterday).
(d) EEM (emerging markets) -1.1%, no doubt fueled by today's declines in Shanghai (-3%) and Brazil (Petrobras -2.6%, VALE -4.2%).
(e) GREK now +7% to 10.52. VXX now @ 17.81. So I capped my gains on Greece by selling early, and fouled a decent pitch on VXX by stopping out. Both scenarios happen all the time- no point in changing my 'batting stance' in response.
Tempted to reopen positions in RYWVX (Rydex 2x Emerging Markets), RYVIX (Rydex Energy Services), and RYPMX (Rydex Precious Metals). I'll pass. Batting practice can be useful ahead of opening real positions.
So much for higher rates, lol.
DeleteIran must wait another 10 years before they're allowed to resume building nuclear weapons.
ReplyDeleteBack in SOXL/QCOM right at close
ReplyDeleteBio-diesel - Oh come on man, it takes one hell of a lot of this to push a truck across country, multiply that by 10's of thousands and calculate the volume of bio-mass needed must be incredible. So why are the bio-fuel stocks all money losers and trading in the toilet, eh?
ReplyDeleteI've been waiting for another shot at INTC (Intel), but I didn't want to do it before today's earnings release. Intel beat. Unfortunately, that meant a +9% pop to 32.50 from today's close of 29.69. Now that I'm home, the rally has fizzled, and I'm opening a partial position @ 30.18.
ReplyDeleteLEI - Took this one off, for a reload.
ReplyDeleteEurope auto sales out this morning and FCAU continues to grow market share:
ReplyDeletehttp://seekingalpha.com/news/2632265-fiat-chrysler-automobiles-june-european-car-registrations-plus-17_7-percent?app=1&uprof=44#email_link
Up 3% in Europe with US bid price $15.24. With Ferrari IPO getting close and continued market share growth both in North America and Europe, maybe it can finally get above the $17 mark and up towards $20.
GM, my other auto holding, grew in Europe as well, but lost market share as was less than the overall market. I may just sell GM as, even though they are cheap, they just can seem to get any momentum in their business or their stock price.
http://seekingalpha.com/news/2632235-opel-june-european-car-registrations-plus-7_6-percent
By the way, I also still auto parts maker MRE.TO.
Talking to a friend of mine who works in a vacation area and saying a big increase in US tourists this year taking advantage of the increase in exchange rates this year ($1.00 US = $1.30 Cdn).
ReplyDeleteMakes a lot of sense and need to incorporate into stock decisions. Makes my plan to go to San Diego this fall a lot more expensive, maybe we go to the Caribbean instead.
Another one bites the dust. ANR
ReplyDeleteLarge short float, gap down close?
DeleteAdding a second tranche of INTC @ 29.72.
ReplyDeleteLooking for another single?
DeleteNot sure.
DeleteReopening a trading position in EXAS @ 28.32.
ReplyDeleteHuge short float, doesn't make sense to me can't imagine why.
DeleteNeil Young Agrees with Mark, music streaming is a bad idea due to losses. NY has dog ears too! :)
ReplyDeleteReopening SLW (Silver Wheaton) @ 14.12, which has declined -2% to yet another 52-wk low.
ReplyDeleteKR - This one seems to have a great deal of positive interest.
ReplyDeleteOh, there was a split, that probably explains.
DeleteFRO - Someone's having way too much fun.
ReplyDeleteFDML - What a blood bath, 48,000 employees sitting around with no work to do?
ReplyDeleteSOHU - Pretty substantial beat down too, must've been forced margin call selling?
ReplyDeleteBill Nygren of Oakmont Funds on TV at lunch talking about FCAU which he recently bought. Said Ferrari is worth $6 a share and likes Marchionne and his track record and if they can meet their goal of getting margins up to F/GM levels, will be $3 a share in profit, so you are paying $9 for $3 in earnings.
ReplyDeleteSo if you put a 10 p/e on $3, gives a $30 stock plus $6 for Ferrari, so up 140% from current price
Also liked AXP and said selling overdone on Costco and getting an above average company at a below market multiple.
DeleteFCAU usually gets rejected at the 50SMA, I missed out on this last reload opportunity. But if autoparts makers and metals remain weak could indicate demand is rolling over. FCAU isn't making new highs and good advice rarely is free (experts didn't see oil crash).
DeleteSure he's talking his book, but I believe him. He just bought the stock and it makes sense for him to tell you why as he wants it higher too. Would be different if he had bought say 3 years ago at 50% of current price, then he might be pumping to dump.
DeleteNFLX - So much for streaming, eh?
ReplyDeleteOUTR kicked butt too, wow that would've beat the stuffing outta others like PCRX....
DeleteGOOG - Just noticed GOOG has been on an absolute tear. Doesn't surprise me but I don't know what changed unless they finally made a key decision.
ReplyDeleteFiat Chrysler Gives Up on Merger Talk -- for Now at Motley Fool
ReplyDeleteThis was one positive my broker highlighted, saying this subject would support the share price. I thought that idea was BS, and suspected something else was afoot that Marchioni was working on, such as a concession on behalf of someone to avoid losing employment..
How did 'batting practice' work out?
ReplyDeleteHad I opened three (identically sized) positions yesterday in RYWVX, RYPMX and RYVIX, the results would have been +1.82%, -0.63%, and -0.48%-> for an overall gain of +0.24%. Not exactly a line drive, so I was probably right to check my swing on actual trades.
Did anyone bet on GOOG ahead of earnings?
ReplyDeleteI took my eyes off it a few days and look what happened....
DeleteI didn't. Not sure why given I've been quite bullish on it for a long time.
DeleteI haven't been this bullish on a stock as I am about MMYT in a long time. Look at the recent trends in gross margins...this company is setting the stage for potentially explosive growth. Its by far the category leader in India, a country experiencing almost exponential e-commerce / mobile growth.
ReplyDeleteLook at the most recent quarters' gross margins:
Mar13 - 39.45%
Jun13 - 33.71
Sep13 - 49.22
Dec13 - 40.80
Mar14 - 46.76
Jun14 - 37.38
Sep14 - 53.29
Dec14 - 46.35
Mar15 - 52.51
Margins in the march quarter for the past 2 years have gone from 39% to 52%. It seems to be a pretty seasonal business in terms of margins, but even in the other quarters its rising substantially.
The number of transactions on their platform for hotels and packages was up 59% last year over the prior year.
An easy comparison to this company is CTRP, a $10 Billion market cap company in a similar sized market (China). MMYT has about a $850 Million market cap. I don't see why MMYT couldn't grow into this size of a company over time.
I think this stock is on the verge of seeing a MASSIVE move higher. Any whiff of
Sorry, meant any whiff of positive news should give it a nice boost. But key is obvious to continue to show improving trends in gross margins.
DeleteCommodities under fire this morning. Gold plunges to 1135. Many, if not most, miners setting new 52-wk lows. OIH (oil services) also retesting its 52-wk low. I plan to start nibbling at mining casualties such as ABX (Barrick), GG (Goldcorp), NEM (Newmont) and FCX (Freeport McMoran).
ReplyDeleteBXE - Somebody's selling, Orange perhaps giving up?
ReplyDeleteHTZ - Saw that coming, was too beat down.
ReplyDeleteI'd consider it on a gap close
DeleteIssue I've had with that one is the balance sheet. That's a notoriously cyclical business. What happens to the $16 Billion in debt during a downturn? They spending half of their operating income just on servicing that debt, let alone paying it down.
DeleteENPH off at 6.50/49.
ReplyDelete"It's nice to be nice to the nice"
ABX- That's as low as I can chart back over 15 years.
ReplyDeleteSorry. 20 years.
DeleteTOF- Do you have a postion in MMYT yet?
ReplyDeleteYeah I bought a bunch on Monday / Tuesday. Gonna try to keep a core position through earnings and trade around it a little if it goes up. Still want to play that potential XBI / IBB crash.
DeleteWhat are you in these days?
Anyone have any opinions on CMG as far as the food goes? I am contemplating a short / small put position in that for next week's earnings.
ReplyDeleteLove the food, ut don't eat there quite as much. The price increases have brought my lunch to $12. I can go to our local mexican place that is great for the same cost and get a real plate. It isn't really about the money but the experience. I'd rather hang there with my family than at CMG.
DeleteMan I hate their food. Those gigantic burritos always seem to split open and are soggy.
DeleteJONE - I think there's reason to believe another lower low is is coming.
ReplyDeleteYRCW - There's a light at end of tunnel? Damn.
ReplyDeleteOSK is pretty beat up, don't need military trucks when ISIS uses Toyotas to fight your covert "wars" for you. Backed by Saudi Arabia
ReplyDeleteABX. It's there as far as RSI goes.
ReplyDeleteNBG - Greece is resolved?
ReplyDelete*NEW*....ENPH magic number for today. 6.13
ReplyDeleteHoly crap...., seriously? I can't understand why banks are a good place to be with so much else looking weak. Maybe a rotation out of banks is coming?
DeleteIEP - I heard Icahn's been tooting his ideas on TV lately?
ReplyDeleteCVRR - Has done well, with a great divy. ALDW has a good divy as well.
ReplyDeleteDUST frickin' rocks, KRE sucking big wind.
ReplyDeletePSEC - Makes corporate business loans btw, which way is demand for this service likely to go?
ReplyDeleteAAPL - We should own this....
ReplyDeleteB/C like INTC, AAPL habitually forces their venders into bankruptcy and impossible situations, key to success.
DeleteI see early signs of a positive divergence on miners, faint as they are. GDX printing new lows, now -4% @ 15.50. On the other hand, blue chip miners are coming off intraday lows. It's a high risk sector, and cautiously scaling into ABX/GG/NEM/FCX @ 8.77/14.90/20.74/15.86. Further capitulation by goldbugs is certainly possible.
ReplyDeleteGold usually moves Sunday 03:00 seems like, so maybe worth a try.... Germany probably isn't too upset about a falling euro and secretly likes it that way since that helps their manufacturing machine?
DeleteSeems to be some piling on onto Gold onto Twitter the last couple of days. Usually a sign we are getting closer to a short term bottom.
DeleteThat, and no doubt some 'running of stops' in play here.
DeleteASYS - Have a look at the insider buying... Looks serious to me.
ReplyDeleteKTEC - Same characters have been loading up on this one.....
DeleteARR - Okay so with Canadian dollar at six year low and commodities prices still contracting, are hopes of rate hikes perhaps just a little overblown?
ReplyDeleteDC area homes approaching $1m average price, up, up and away to the moon?
GBX - Run out of town on a rail.
ReplyDeleteShorted some CMG at $661.3. Doubt I can hold it through earnings. Was thinking I could just buy a small out of the money put position on the odd chance they tank on earnings.
ReplyDeleteExpensive stock for sure and will certainly get hit when growth slows - just hard to know when and from what levels.
DeleteI think they only have about 10 restaurants in Canada, so lots of opportunity to grow up here.
Good luck
Insiders have sold a great deal of their position, wonder if they've completed that and waiting for a pullback. I really like a big greasy steak burrito extra butter, spices, beans, rice and crap all rolled up so big you eat it with a fork. Not really Mexican food, I think....?
DeleteOpening minor positions in RYPMX (Rydex Precious Metals) + RYVIX (Rydex Energy Services) at the close. Heading into the close, GDX (miners) off -4.6% and OIH (oil services) -1.85%.
ReplyDeleteENPH- Northland(?) maintains an outperform rating and ADJUSTS it's PT from 24 to 13.
ReplyDeleteI bet a shit load of people got adjusted out of their cash on that call.
WTF, from darling to hell hole in three easy steps.
DeleteOMG what a fing mess...
ReplyDeleteA number of other firms have also recently commented on ENPH. Analysts at JPMorgan Chase & Co. downgraded shares of Enphase Energy from an “overweight” rating to a “neutral” rating and lowered their price target for the stock from $16.00 to $10.00 in a research note on Wednesday, July 8th. Analysts at Northland Capital Partners raised their price target on shares of Enphase Energy from $20.00 to $24.00 in a research note on Wednesday, May 6th. Analysts at Deutsche Bank lowered their price target on shares of Enphase Energy from $15.00 to $14.00 and set a “hold” rating on the stock in a research note on Wednesday, May 6th. Analysts at Canaccord Genuity lowered their price target on shares of Enphase Energy from $18.00 to $16.00 and set a “buy” rating on the stock in a research note on Wednesday, May 6th. Finally, analysts at Bank of America downgraded shares of Enphase Energy from a “neutral” rating to an “underperform” rating and lowered their price target for the stock from $16.50 to $10.50 in a research note on Wednesday, May 6th. Three investment analysts have rated the stock with a sell rating, three have given a hold rating and eight have assigned a buy rating to the company’s stock. The stock presently has a consensus rating of “Hold” and a consensus price target of $16.12.
Average rating is hold, yet the target price is up 250% from current level?
DeleteDon't know anything about it, but the chart looks pretty good.
KMI - What has the smart money been up to and what else are the experts doing perhaps?
ReplyDelete"A total of 66 of the hedge funds tracked by Insider Monkey were long in this stock as of March 31, a drop of five from one quarter earlier. The aggregate value of the holdings of the funds also decreased considerably, to $1.59 billion from $2.07 billion over the course of the first quarter. With Kinder Morgan’s shares being down only slightly (less than 1%) during that time, the decrease is mostly attributable to a withdrawal of capital by the smart money. They have proven to be wise in doing so, as shares have dipped by 10% since the end of that period, as well as the disappointing earnings. We can say that the smart money definitely saw it coming based on their moves."
I'm not sure Barclay's can be trusted at all, they seem to call buy nar tops and vice-versa?
DeleteJun-16-15 Initiated Sun Trust Rbsn Humphrey Buy $48
May-19-15 Initiated Deutsche Bank Buy $49
Apr-01-15 Initiated Stifel Buy $47
Mar-23-15 Initiated Argus Buy $50
Feb-20-15 Resumed Barclays Overweight $50
Who has stats of stocks in uptrends vs stocks in downtrend? I dunno, seems like there's a bit of an imbalance......
ReplyDeleteZGNX - Taking this one off into close.
ReplyDeleteFMD - Oh my, where to now, vacation on company jet?
ReplyDelete