Tuesday, July 7, 2015

7/7/15 Big Trouble in Little China

It started out with a little trouble in Big China.  $3-4t later, it's time to switch the adjectives.

(a) Trading halted for 20% of China listed stocks: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/over-20-of-listed-china-stocks-now-in-trading-halt-2015-07-07-181035534.  When all else fails, freeze prices!
(b) Hang Seng opens down -3.8%: http://www.hsi.com.hk/HSI-Net/
(c) Shanghai opens down -8.12%: http://finance.sina.com.cn/realstock/company/sh000001/nc.shtml

I think they need to halt the entire market.

79 comments:

  1. YANG has been moving for two straight months.

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    Replies
    1. I'm very happy Greece is winning, sick of the weaklings habitually giving free handouts to the uber rich at taxpayer expense.

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  2. HIMX, Don't look now..... or ever?

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  3. OXY was hit yesterday at 74.15

    missed CBI will wait

    so much for yesterday's gut feel for up open

    WTF, Greece caves, guess vote was all show and it seems they have no plan for an exit themselves.

    China blocks certain shareholders from being able to sell, that gives me a warm fuzzy feeling.

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  4. ENPH- Scrambling to figure out how to trade this.

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  5. I think there's a real chance we see the entirety of the China move reversed. The bullshit they're trying to pull over there with forcing people to buy is having the exact opposite effect that it should have. I guess YANG was the play huh?

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  6. Earnings season officially kicks off tonight with AA, but moreso next week and the week after. Earnings seasons have generally been good for the markets recently as people realize that companies are still doing well, regardless of the geopolitical news out there.

    Would make some sense that it happens again.

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  7. CBI down on problems with a plutonium project (I think). They manage their contracts well, so this shouldn't be an issue and probably a good chance to buy if you like it.

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  8. AGO upgraded by smart analyst Mark Palmer - see PR as manageable and stock cheap.


    http://seekingalpha.com/news/2617295-bull-back-on-board-with-assured-guaranty

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  9. ENPH- I've been jumping in and out at 6.60...so I'm just going to leave it there now. See how it goes.

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    Replies
    1. F it. I pulled it again. It looks like the Spec. is leaning on it.

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    2. Holly crap. No there is a tidal wave of selling.

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  10. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8VazBRA0SOc

    One of the best releases in 1989, with lyrics by Don Henley and music by Bruce Hornsby.

    Beijing has certainly erased any doubt about market manipulation in China. The US? What do you call six years of suppressed interest rates?

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    Replies
    1. Your song led me to this.

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cOeKidp-iWo

      Music is a true pleasure of life. 2nd now you have more time to finish your composition. I hope you will share it with us when its finished mate.

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  11. (a) EEM (emerging markets) -2.65% to hit a new 52-wk low.
    (b) FXI (China 'H' Shares) -5%, now negative year-to-date.
    (c) CAF (China 'A' Shares) -5.3%, and negative year-to-date.
    (d) DJIA -200 points.

    If I were trading I'd probably be buying, but only for a short-term 'date.'

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  12. 'Who's Next' was released in 1971, and includes 'Behind Blue Eyes' and 'Won't Get Fooled Again.' Both provide insight into 2015 global markets.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BfuWXRZe9yA

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LinXv5qRXPI

    (a) Now that everyone is freaking out about China, it's no longer time to freak out about China.
    (b) Who's next? I would consider Japan.

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  13. ENOC seems to have good RS today still holding from higher price may add.

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    Replies
    1. AND as soon as I say this it proceeds to weaken.

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  14. ENPH- God, what could have that note said? For a neutral rating and a 10pt this is pretty crazy action. Already 40% upside.

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    Replies
    1. Too funny. If a neutral means 40% upside I gotta see their buy recs

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  15. NAV - Sure is getting the stuffing beat out of it. Despite the CEO bought an impressive amount.

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  16. Just saw this about Greece:

    "In full preparedness is the government the possibility to require the use of a parallel currency euro.



    According to reports, the Ministry of Finance of the parallel currency design process has begun and left deliberations these days with lenders about whether it will require the implementation of that measure. By today's standards, government funds fail to service the obligation to pay wages and pensions at the end of the month.



    According to reports, the first half of the salaries of civil servants (about 300 mil. Euros) is no way to cover euro. In this regard, the Deputy Finance Minister D. Mardas assured that payment of a fortnight is secured. However, today nobody can assure that it is also guaranteed the payment by the State of about 2 billion. euros at the end of the month for salaries, pensions and subsidies to social security funds.



    Apart from the apparent lack of liquidity on wages, the state can not serve longer and pensions.Every month, for the payment of 4,551,074 pensions (information system data "Sun" for May) required 2.3 billion. Euros, of which at least 850 million. Euro is direct government funding. Under these difficulties, many are those who have suggested for months the possibility of a parallel currency use. "

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  17. Well, at least with the NYSE system being down, it's given the media something to talk about besides Greece and China.

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  18. I started selling a little bit of BIS. look closely at the below chart of the 1987 crash (the one on the right). look at the period after the august 1987 top

    https://teamonfuego.files.wordpress.com/2015/06/screen-shot-2015-06-11-at-10-24-57-pm.jpg
    now look at the recent chart of IBB. if the top a couple of weeks ago was as high as it goes, its trading almost exactly the same. see chart below:

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IBB&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p50798187425

    my thinking is it hits lows from a few days ago (around $360), then pops (Maybe on resolution of Greece or some positive trading in China), then crashes.

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  19. Love this:
    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CA5On_CWAAAsfxb.jpg

    Steve Burns ‏@SJosephBurns Jul 5

    RT @stocktwits: What the path to great investing or trading usually looks like. http://stks.co/b1wL8 " <<~ Truth

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  20. ENPH- No position yet. I saw a little more of the JPM note on line. Basically saying it's dead money until a new product. Losing some pricing power. I was talking to my friend the other day a mentioned the possibility of a loss of institutional support. Might be happening. I remember talking to MOG about this and sometimes they basically start to say FU and you little business. make some money.

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  21. Minor positions in FXI (China 'H' Shares) @ 39, GREK (Greece) @ 9.65, and RYWVX (Rydex 2x Emerging Markets) heading into the close. Traders have deserted the craps table. There is absolutely no reason to invest in China right now, which is often the best time to open a position.

    EWJ (Japan) currently -4%.

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  22. Closed my BIS position. Hoping to see a bounce in IBB back to the $370 area to re-load. If not, then I'll try to figure out the next plan of attack.

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  23. Picked up some gm at 31.2 after hrs

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  24. Given the sentiment washout China has probably hit or come very close to a bottom. It has universal media attention now

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  25. (a) The Nikkei reverses to close +0.6%.
    (b) The Hang Seng reverses to close +3.73%.
    (c) Best of all, the Shanghai Composite reverses to close +5.76%.
    (d) FXI (China 'H' Shares) bidding 41.30 (+6.03%) pre-market.
    (e) EEM (Emerging Markets) bidding 37.72 (+2.56%) pre-market.

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  26. Added to Gm this morning at 31.6

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  27. NYSE will be trading today all day?

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    Replies
    1. We'll never again be able to say for certain.

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    2. Let's email another version of the virus next week, rinse and repeat.

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  28. (a) FXI (China'H' Shares) off pre-market @ 41.09 for a +5.35% gain. It's now set to open somewhat higher @ 41.38. Why not hold for what may be double-digit gains? That wasn't the trade. Having avoided a one-month -30% plunge in China indexes, I'm happy with an overnight gain of +5%.
    (b) GREK off pre-market @ 10.03 for a +3.3% gain. Done with that one as well.
    (c) RYWVX (Rydex 2x Emerging Markets) will be closed at the 1030 est trading window. EEM currently bidding +2.9%.

    Good gains on a pass line bet, but I'm not making a killing. If I were killing it, I would have been inappropriately sized up. We're talking about an index that has traded in volatile swings of 5-8%, right? It could have gone the other way. (As they say at the gaming tables, it could have come up red!)

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  29. Days like today throw a wrench into the entire accumulation strategy.
    WMT - Was expecting this one would hold onto it's gains, given the past several days beacon of sentiment.

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  30. ENPH magic numbers today. 5.78 and 5.31. Wow. We leave today for a tournament so not sure what I'll do. I'm shocked it rolled over this quickly with TAN still +6%.

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  31. TREX - This chart looks very familiar, many others looked like this a few months ago..

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  32. Probably going to sell my GM at a loss. Recent trends in this company's China performance are going to continue to drag this stock down most likely the more that I think about it. I think I misjudged this.

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  33. It's after 9:00 PM in Greece now and still haven't seen anything on their new proposal. Would not be shocked if they don't even put one forward and it 's just over.

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  34. Grabbed some TNA at $85.68. I don't have the greatest read on things right now so I'm just going to stick to day trading for the time being. The news was horrible yesterday and yet even with that there were a lot of areas that still held. So makes me think bullish for the time being.

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    Replies
    1. Closed that out for a small gain. Just gonna stick with these small daytrades. closed out my GM for a 1.5% hit.

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  35. ENPH - Mark, this one trades like FTWR used to.....

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  36. Most markets giving up the bulk of the day's gains.

    (a) DJIA up 'just' +97 points (that's 160 points lower than the opening high).
    (b) EEM +2.29%.
    (c) FXI (China 'H' Shares) hanging in there, still up +4.98%.
    (d) TLT (long-dated Treasurys) -1.9%. I've never seen the kind of sustained volatility in bonds displayed the past few weeks.

    Apart from jumping onto the field for an overnight trade in Greece and China, still liking my seat on the sidelines.

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  37. Replies
    1. Frustrating trade on this one. I've watched it bounce up and down for a few weeks with no overall impact. Guess its holding up relatively well.

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  38. sold AAPL FSLR ENOC should have hit the opening on all

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  39. This is what I think of the mkt.

    F--k my Pumps

    at 25.:28

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QMIM0uaqhaQ

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  40. Ku Klux Klan wants to adopt a section of highway in Georgia, which means they'll have a roadside sign.

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  41. ENPH- God I got lucky. If I had held that would ahve been about a 35K swing.

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  42. I hopped back into BIS at $28.9. Thing that interests me most about today's "rally" is the entire semis space. Look at MU, SNDK, INTC, etc. What's up with that?

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  43. Futures ramping higher. Shorted SPY at $205.9. Will close before after hours closes most likely.

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  44. Market frustration at its finest-> Greece submits new proposals to Eurozone creditors (one which comes closer to ECB/IMF demands), which has SPX futures +20 (+1%) after hours. Never mind the fact that a majority of Greek citizens voted against these demands last Sunday.
    ________________________________________

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    Replies
    1. Hold your horses. SPX futures now just +14.

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    2. Since when does government do what the citizens want.

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  45. Do any of you know anything about fixed-income annuities? A colleague tried to move his funds into cash, only to discover that his 401k doesn't offer a cash/money market option (wtf). The closest alternative is the Valic Fixed Income Fund, which guarantees 2.8% a year. Hey, I would be happy with something like that, but I have a hard time believing it.

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  46. SD - Wonder how long sub $1 lasts?

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  47. I need to learn from Mark how to stay with a trade. Shanghai (and FXI) up another 4-5% this morning.

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