Another outstanding miniseries, this one a mystery/thriller that begins when a 5-year-old child disappears while on vacation with his parents in France.
Unavailable on Netflix. Also unavailable on Amazon Prime, but the eight episodes can be viewed at your own pace on Amazon Instant Video for $14.99. Does that sound expensive? How much do you shell out to watch a 2-hour film at the local cineplex, and how many films are able to stand up to BBC writing/acting/production standards?
Great article: http://blogs.wsj.com/indiarealtime/2013/08/01/the-grandmother-with-faith-in-indian-stocks/
This is from two years ago but one stat stuck out: 5% of indians invest in stocks. I think what we are seeing with Gold may be a function of individual investors turning toward stocks. If this is true then gold may have a lot further to fall.
There once was a happy fisherman living a simple life on a small island. The fellow goes fishing for a few hours every day. He catches a few fish, sells them to his friends, and enjoys spending the rest of the day with his wife and children, and napping. He couldn’t imagine changing a thing in his relaxed and easy life.
A recent M.B.A. visits this island and quickly sees how this fisherman could become rich. He could catch more fish, start up a business, market the fish, open a cannery, maybe even issue an I.P.O. Ultimately he would become truly successful. He could donate some of his fish to hungry children worldwide and might even save lives.
“And then what?” asks the fisherman.
“Then you could spend lots of time with your family,” replies the visitor.
It seems like we ought to have at least a small bounce, say to GLD = 110 or 115, because almost no one is left to sell gold on COMEX at this point, and COMEX forms by far the largest volume of gold trading in the west.
I just placed a buy limit order for 5 January 2017 $13 calls on GG at $3.00. If GLD returns to 110 (which is a very small bounce back to the previous support level) and GG returns to where it was with GLD at 110 (which is 20), then these calls options should more than double...
Palladium looks dirt cheap to me. Of course the $US could be about to go on a tear if you consider the US FED wants to be the only country raising rates, or at least says there's no plan to lower rates further thus should provide downside support for the currency?
CP, this "tear" for the $USD has already happened, as it ran up from 80 to 100 on expectations of EXACTLY this being the case. That run has ended, though, as this prospect seems to be fully priced in...
David, some say the Chinese economy is nowhere near 7% growth, more like 3~3.5% So there will be some kind of correction based on this once the truth comes out (seems to be happening?). Unless maybe it's already priced in, I really don't know so it's quite possible you may be right.
The other point some have made is China's stock market seems to trade inversely to the Chinese economy, LOL, so it's confusing.
Well, we did just get a hammer on many commodities, so there's hope....
My brother-in-law bought a big RAM truck this weekend. Looked at it and the Silverado, but was so much cheaper, it was a no-brainer for him. I think that FCAU has done a good job of pricing their models, which is helping account for their share growth. Their starting to get their margins higher, and I think they still can raise prices further without hurting their attractiveness too much.
IWM is clearly lagging QQQ recently, indicating a large divergence between the few "darling" companies and the broad market. Even inside Russell 2000, there is a large divergence between price and A/D line:
I heard somewhere that more than half of the issues on NYSE are trading below their 200 day MA. This is not a healthy market. I just sold all the Oracle stock options that vested for me this summer and converted that money into TZA and QID (in 2:3 ratio).
The trading plan is to sell TZA if IWM rises above the recent peak (say reaches $124), and then sell QID if QQQ makes a new all-time high.
Tough to buy TZA / QID here in the short term given the recent downturn but good luck. i still think the global economy is ok and in particular the us economy is good which would make it harder for the market to have much more than a 10% or so correction. valuations aren't ridiculously high, especially relative to the bond market.
Wish I had bought more Rolls Royce. Usually buying in tranches works to my advantage in getting a lower cost, but now it's up 10% in 2 days, so I only got a starter position (1/3 or 1/2 of what I'd want) in it. \
Here is a way to make some almost free money over the next few months - feel free to use, but don't broadcast as I have a few friends who are still getting positions.
Take a look at KCLI. They filed to buy out all shareholders of less than 250 shares for $52.50 and the stock is at $47.09. The buyout is set to occur in mid-December, so if you buy now, you make 12.54% or 35.8% annualized (you will also receive 2 dividends, one if you buy by Aug 4 and the second in Oct).
They haven't filed the proxy yet, so there is a very small chance this doesn't happen, but it is a solid company and half owned by one family who wants this to happen, so unless something really unexpected comes up, it will happen. It was trading around $43 before the news came out, so the downside risk is very reasonable in my opinion. I'd say 99% chance it goes ahead and 1% not.
The reason the arb funds aren't in here buying up all the shares is because at under 250 shares, it is not worth their while, but it works great for small guys like us. I have bought 249 shares in several accounts. Because it is being done via a reverse and forward split, the reverse split will empty out all my accounts. I was concerned that the buyout might be by owner of the stock, so I read prospectuses of a couple other of these and it is by account, so feel safe.
All positions will be stopped out today, most below my entry points from last week's lows. Last Wednesday's gains are history! I'm fairly confident that the final phase of capitulation is underway in commodities and emerging markets. However, I'm not 100% certain. One tenet of my trading is immediate liquidation when positions move against me, which is just another way of saying I will not tolerate large losses. In this case, the portfolio experienced nice gains last Wednesday, a pullback on Thursday, then a partial 'take back' of gains on Friday.
Today's trading has FCX (Freeport McMoran) + NEM (Newmont Mining) + USO (Crude) + XLE (Energy) printing new lows. EEM (Emerging Markets) + GDX (miners) + OIH (oil services) are close to doing so as well. Should prices continue to decline tomorrow on high volume, support levels for these assets will be anyone's guess. Therefore, although the odds are good everything bounces on Tuesday, I'm out on Monday. A +1% gain for the portfolio at last Wednesday's highs will likely end the day at a -1% loss. No worries. I don't expect to win every trade, and my priority is capital preservation.
Good to hear from you! To be honest, however, I don't like what I'm hearing.
I think you should close all positions tomorrow, park your brokerage assets in cash, and await an opportunity you can't refuse. In fact, that's exactly what I should do as well.
The 'gurus' who buy low and sell high all seem to take poundings before their positions pay off. Look at PBR, VALE, GLD. Maybe they're rich enough not to care, or they're playing mainly with OPM. Personally, I can't do it. I can't take that kind of pain.
When you run big money, you have to trade this way, unless it is a huge stock. It takes time to build a large position and time to get out, so you have to start buying early and selling early. If you wait for the bottom to be in, you'll push the price up as you buy.
Yikes, wow.... Wonder if it's indicative of something bigger or isolated to commodities? I wouldn't want to buy into something in distribution, done that too many times already.
I wish the others could go up to help out FCAU some more. I think the performance of f / Gm / Vlkay is keeping fcau down. I bet this all turns around though just like when BAC was down a few years ago on unwarranted fears
EWA - Wonder what changed? If Chinese government is propping their market by making it illegal to trade then gains can't be trusted. REXX - Ouch..... Definitely not in an upward channel.
CVS's sales are down about 8%, since stopping sales of tobacco products. Now they can focus more on selling drugs until/if that also becomes a politically incorrect business model. Stuff with sugar instead of chemical artificial sweeteners should also be considered, no soda or candy, just wholesome foods that aren't GMO, right? Tiger bone powder sounds good to me...
Just shot Mark a message and figured I'd share it here. I haven't added to my MMYT since $15 because I hate trying to catch these falling knives (my avg price is a lot higher at $18ish), but this is reminiscent of ENPH back in December 2013. Its more oversold now than ENPH was a year and a half ago. RSI is at 16.9. ENPH was at 17.52 on 12/12/13. That led to a 84% increase over 8 weeks. Not saying same will happen here but worth keeping an eye on.
Also, an 84% increase from here is around $24 which is where it started its free fall from back in mid May. An interesting level. It also is a reversal of half of the drop from $36 to $13.
I'm still waiting for news on a partnership from Flipkart which was rumored 2 weeks ago. That could be a catalyst. Also, LONG was bought out last week at a multiple that would equate to $22 for MMYT and LONG is a bit of a POS website in China...they have a 9% market share vs 40%+ for MMYT and they have declining net revenues.
$22 is what I recall my broker has as the current objective. Different analyst of course, same broker had much higher price objectives on oil stocks last year this time and has been making a mint on that short.
I've never put any faith in analyst price estimates. I see a few with $38 price targets from last year. I bet they downgrade to $18 targets now. Most of these guys don't have skin in the game so they don't look at it with the same vigor as a shareholder in my opinion. I'd rather hear from a shareholder with a good track record.
Will Hillary be passed the presidential torch? http://www.motherjones.com/environment/2014/09/hillary-clinton-fracking-shale-state-department-chevron
Half a billion solar panels by 2021, what would be the margin on those? http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/07/26/3684585/hillary-clintons-climate-plan-released/
There was in fact a bounce this morning, decidedly of the 'dead cat' variety.
(a) EEM (emerging markets) hit an intraday high of 36.93 early, which was quickly sold. It's now trading in the 36.6x's. I'm contemplating another swing, but I'd be swinging at a curve ball. EWZ (Brazil) also gave up early gains to retest its lows. (b) GDX (miners) also opened strong, but now red and threatening to set a new 52-wk low. FCX (Freeport McMoran, a proxy for copper prices) printed a new low with a 10-handle, handing insiders who recently bought in the low twenties a -50% haircut! (c) OIH (oil services) three cents away from a new low. XLE (energy) has already printed a new low.
Risk is down, so stock now up to $48.50, but even at that price, you can make over 9% in a little over 4 months, pretty much guaranteed, on $12,000 per account you can buy it in,
A bit of a mis out of ING this morning. Nice dividend announcement and commit to return 40%+ of profits to shareholders. Stock down some.
But I'm thinking of selling though as it is now over book value and will be harder for it to move up. You can still buy big US banks like C and BAC at 85% of book and they are turning their business around, unlike ING which already has done so, so probably easier for them to move up.
Taking another swing @ RYWVX (Rydex 2x Emerging Markets) at the 1030 est window. Why? It's a decent pitch. My take on the 'pitch:'
(a) Lots of selling into strength yesterday (Tuesday), which then continued throughout the day despite a steady decline in price. (b) This morning's 'gap up' met with more selling. (c) Sellers are done for now. (d) Swing for a short-term bounce in the likely absence of additional sellers at current levels.
Been busy all morning. Bought some BITA at $38.4. I'm eyeing a very similar chart pattern as NTES back 10 years ago. Looking for a move to $60. I will add on a "breakdown" on earnings as I think it will suck out people just as they should be adding.
I'm showing after market tomorrow. I'm planning on holding longer term (ie 4-6 months) on this so started with small position and will add on a drop on earnings.
My thinking from sentiment standpoint is pretty simple...there's this big movement to online going on in China for autos which is a major tailwind. But investors are punishing the stock because they perceive auto sales in China as slowing down. Reminds me a lot of why people sold off MA back in 2008 despite tailwinds from movement to debit/credit cards.
Thank you for the advice, 2nd_ave! In the past, your advices were always spot on... I just set tight sell stop orders for my large ultrashort positions: at $9.70 for TZA and at $30.70 for QID. If those are hit, then I will keep the cash safe until I see an opportunity I can't refuse.
I did have a few K left over from the sales of my Oracle options, and I decided to press my "gold" trade this morning by buying 12 January 2017 calls on GDX at $2.70. After the recent collapse, GLD is staying flat for almost two weeks now. Seems like the selling is done, buy no buyers want to touch it yet. Given the fact that gold is pretty much trading now at production cost, it would make sense that the downside is very limited at this point. No wonder commercial specs have almost closed their shorts on COMEX -- they don't feel the need to hedge their downside at this point. Such low levels of commercial shorts have always preceeded large bounces on GLD...
Wow. This market is brutal for anything internet related, excluding PCLN, EXPE, GOOGL, AMZN, NFLX. I'm down 5% on my small position of BITA that I bought just a couple of hours ago. This is a stock that was down 60% from highs a year ago.
Z is now down 17% from highs after hours last night.
LNKD hit $259 in AH trading after its earnings report. Those buyers are now down 26%.
MMYT was down 32% from its close the day before earnings, after already having been down 47% from last year's highs.
Granted, some of these are overvalued and deserving of drops like this but the moves seem like there's a lot of fear out there, definitely not indicative of risk-taking right now in the market.
(a) GDX (miners) sinks to a new low today at 13.16. (b) USO (oil) prints a new low today. (c) EEM (Emerging Markets) gapped up, only to meet supply, currently about -0.5% from my 1030 est entry. (d) CVX (Chevron), a major Bay Area energy player, has now slumped -10% since the end of July, and -25% since May. (e) GREK (Greece) making its way to new lows as well, now off -3.64% @ 9.28.
The kind of decimation taking place in commodities right now is gut-wrenching. The plunge in prices of copper, oil, grains, natural gas, and even coffee is literally driving companies out of business.
Anyone holding miners, oils, or commodities ETFs is down well over -50%. One very smart trader I follow recommended that clients buy CHK (Chesapeake) around 12, then recommended it more strongly when it dropped to 10. I started watching closely at 10, played a few times in the nines...and today it's 7.12 (after briefly hitting an intraday low of 6.98)!
I'm not quite sure what to make of the seemingly endless declines in the sector. Both OIH (oil services) + XLE (energy) hit new lows today, and have reversed somewhat. GDX (miners) has yet to show any buying interest.
My sentiment-based trading system 'tells' me enough traders have been shaken down to support a rally. On the other hand, I never argue with price.
(a) There's absolutely no reason to reopen a position in miners, with GDX gapping even lower as I type, now @ 13.07. (b) The reversal in OIH leaves me with a possible 'pitch' in RYVIX. (c) EEM retested (yet again) its recent lows in the mid-36 range. Today will be the third consecutive day the ETF has sold off from an opening high (while trading near its 52-wk nadir), which historically has marked a tradable low.
Unless things change in the final minutes, I plan to open a position in RYVIX + add a second tranche to RYWVX (Rydex 2x Emerging Markets) at the close. If both sectors continue to sell off on Thursday, then by definition they will be setting new lows and I'll just wish remaining investors the best!
I still have that in an account I'm managing. I need to get on the call they had...my assumption is they made some comments about the EIS division being spun off???
I've been just sitting on the sidelines observing prices for the energy stocks, keeping an eye on those stocks that don't make new lows as oil plummets.
I still think it's wise to avoid any banks with exposure to energy (ie Texas banks). I'm holding some KTHN and FSFG for the longer term. I don't believe they have exposure to energy but this was all clearly a potential black swan event for the banking industry.
HII - I guess if the US changes course and makes peace with the world we can cut the military budget and lay off amry/navy/marines, reduce carbon footprint of military in a huge way?
My broker has it as underperform, how much you wanna bet it jumps in AH on earnings? I guess if it doesn't, that would mean liquidations aren't rocketing?
"Maryland is one of the worst states for distressed sales" I guess this means homes....
One last question then I'll shut up..... If the POTUS intends on halting the out of control war machine then what happens to the economy of the nation's capital and all the military contractors here sucking on government tit? Where does that money go aside from pushing the $US higher (due to lack of sufficient waste on stuff for waging war maybe $300B I'm guessing)?
Perhaps unemployed veteran housing and veteran education?
I just moved the stops on my large ultrashort positions in TZA and QID to breakeven points. If those stops are hit, then it would mean that IWM had made a double bottom at $120 using intraday prices over the last 2 weeks. Thus, it would make sense to re-enter the short side only if IWM breaks below $120, which is what I will do *IF* I get stopped out of my ultrashorts today or tomorrow.
Good timing, 2nd_ave, on entering GDX this morning!!!
Seeing lots of fear creeping into the market...if Jeff Saut is right and we see a mid August low we should see some really bearish reads on $CPCE, CNN Fear and Greed index, etc. Sentiment is getting dour on Stocktwits:
59% Bears: http://stocktwits.com/symbol/SPY
Is that an inverted H&S pattern I see? http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p72504199834
Interesting to see all of this negativity when economic reports are actually strengthening, per the ISM / PMI reports yesterday and the past 2 weeks of jobless claims, which were all really, really strong.
Seems a bit panicky out there. Cramer on TV tonight saying don't buy this dip - "the market character has changed".
Personally, I'm finding the market to be just fine. My portfolio is within 1% of it's all-time high and I'm pretty sure I made money today (TD won't tell me till tomorrow).
Stocks like AGO and CAM.TO reported good quarters and were up 3%. The losses on most of my other stocks were also quite small.
It really does seem like we are seeing the shift from growth outperformance to value outperformance. This means the high fliers with poor valuation support like tech, biotech, etc. get hit and the still cheap stocks, that grow with the economy, like financials and energy go up.
We'll see what happens over the next few months, but I'm feeling pretty good still.
(a) GDX (miners) caught a bid, soaring close to +5% by mid-session, only to close up just +2.14%. RYPMX (Rydex Precious Metals) finished somewhat better @+3.1%. (b) EEM (Emerging Markets) were weak the entire session, posting a -0.87% loss for the day. RYWVX (Rydex 2x Emerging Markets) finished -1.05%. (c) OIH (oil services) slammed at the open to set a new 52-wk low, but ended the day strong, +3.54%. RYVIX (Rydex Energy Services) closed up a solid +3.73%. (d) FCX (Freeport McMoran) closed @ 11.21, +2.74% from my opening basis. (e) PBR (Petrobras) closed @ 6.49, +4.84% from basis. (f) RSX (Russia) closed slightly above basis.
I should note that CHK (Chesapeake), a stock which I considered but ruled out, ended the day +16.5% @ 8.19! That would have been what is called a 'proposition bet' in craps, one with terrible odds but a high payout. No regrets.
What is this, an arbitrage making use of corporate hedges, right? http://seekingalpha.com/article/3397035-over-100-percent-upsides-and-gains-posted-by-monthly-pay-dividend-dogs-for-august-2016?source=nasdaq
NWLI had good earnings and ytd good as well. The increase in book value, which is also important for a financial company, was less than the increase in earnings, so must have been an asset revaluation or something similar. The actual SEC earnings filing will have the details, usually out in a day or two.
Added to most positions following the negative reaction to 'non-farm payrolls' this morning. In my opinion, any single monthly report is a 'non-event' in and of itself, but conveniently used as an excuse to flush weak hands.
I even opened a position in CHK in the 8.20 range (basically, near the close of yesterday's +16.5% move). It may be a 'tell' re washed out sentiment in the commodities sector. Currently at 8.94. Very high risk play.
Despite the generally negative reaction to NFP thus far, my opinion is the markets (US indexes included) will be testing recent highs again. Today's close will be telling.
CENX - Wonder if the rogue trader was short? If so, was that his personal account or on behalf of shareholders too? "Jul-02-15 Reiterated Deutsche Bank Buy $25 → $19"
SCCO - We need to see something less than $25 before getting too worried. Maybe someone knows this? NATI - These guys I think, are going to benefit from subsidized educational programs.
Both QQQ and IWM are trading now below the July 28th intraday low, which makes 2 lower highs and lower lows for QQQ since its all-time high on July 20th, and 3 lower highs and lower lows for IWM, which set its all-time high on June 23. Unless these ETFs can bounce back above July 28th levels today, I would say the chances of more downside next week are very high. Given the large drop in indices in the past few days, I am surprised at how little fear there is out there -- VIX is still at 14.XX! In the past, such declines would push VIX to 18. I guess that's another reason as to why we should have more weakness next week -- people are not panicking yet.
Here is an e-mail I received from Zacks this morning:
"Were you bothered by the market action on Thursday?
I hope not. Remember this is still a long term bull market til proven otherwise. And in the short run it is range bound.
Sometimes we slowly gyrate from the top of the range to the bottom...and right back up. And sometimes it's a more violent move like Thursday. But at the end of the day, it's the same basic outcome.
Those with weak hands (and stomachs) get thrown from the bull just as it is ready to head higher. Don't let this happen to you."
The advisers at Zacks are probably reading other advisers as well, so this must be the prevalent mood out there. Hence the low VIX today...
Yep, last time we had a crash with lower lows going much lower in rabid fashion, PMs followed. Can't imagine how it could be any different this time especially considering central banks are out of bullets for pulling demand forward?
Used equipment prices trend lower but that can easily be made up for in volume, which appears to be poised for liftoff, wouldn't you think?
"Ritchie Bros: Another strong ARR but will it last- Key thoughts heading into conference call 8/7/2015 2:10 AM.Ritchie reported a strong set of Q2 results. The key highlight was the better than expected ARR (12.3% vs BofAe 11.8%). The strong ARR in the 1H (12.2%) may provide some support that RBA is entering a structurally higher ARR level. While the results are certainly +ve, we have some questions on sustainability going fwd as used equipment prices trend lower."
I think it's a good sign AAPL has held up all day. Been watching that one closely. If it can put a bottom in here it would help the tech stocks I think.
I bought some $116 AAPL calls expiring next week. Not much. I missed the IBB down move due to being too busy this week with my website and managing my shitty MMYT position and the move up in FCAU (I decided to sell, not sure why) so the account I put the small $$ into for options I figure I will try it on a gut instinct trade here, that AAPL is due for a bounce after a $20 drubbing in 3 weeks.
Heading into the close, an earlier -132-point decline in the DJIA has been narrowed to -47 points.
(a) GDX (miners) have given up an early +4% gain to trade flat. (b) FCX (Freeport McMoran) has given up all of yesterday's gains and has now set a new 52-wk low. (c) OIH (oil services) has retraced 75% of Thursday's spectacular rally. (e) EEM (Emerging Markets) is treading water, with gains in China offset by weakness in Brazil.
The above scenario is 'good' from the perspective of maximum frustration. The unrelenting disappointment leads more traders to give up each day, allowing markets to ultimately rally with minimal participation.
Even though QQQ finished above yesterday's lows, IWM finished below those lows, so I wouldn't say that all is well for next week. If anything, this just looks like the conditioned "buy this dip" behavior, especially in the "darling" large hi-tech stocks. We may very well keep sliding the slope of hope until VIX rises above 18.
Below the 200DMA for the Dow and rolling over, with the 50DMA about to cross below the 200DMA...that's a recipe for more pain. HOwever, I don't think this market will die easily. A rally back up above the 50 DMA could be in order quickly...a 500 point rally out of nowhere.
If it's like the 1972 market then everyone trading it will get chewed up and spit out.
TOF, I think the time for rallies to new highs has past. The market has been topping for more than a year now (IWM closed today at the March 7, 2014 level). Recently, the market breadth has deteriorated significantly. Take a look at the A/D line for NASDAQ 100:
David - I'm not saying we definitely get new highs, but if you're short you have to be on guard for at the very least a rally to slightly above the 50 DMA
TOF, I am "on guard" for a rally, as I moved the stops on my large ultrashort positions to my entry points, so as not to lose any money on them. If I am stopped out, then I'll just wait for the indices to break below today's intraday lows to re-enter the short side.
As for the GLD, it seems clear to me that we are witnessing a local (or maybe long-term) the bottoming phase. After the 2014/2015 double bottom at 110 was broken, all the weak hands were shaken out, but surprisingly, GLD did not drop like a stone -- it dropped a little and then halted its slide, and since then it was bouncing up and down for 2 weeks. This is a standard bottoming formation, the same that we saw in September 2011 for SPY. So I am debating as to whether I should sell all my ultrashort position and put ALL that money into January 2017 GDX calls -- wouldn't that be something? :)
Or better yet, something solar or alternative power since we're being told in no uncertain terms there will be huge emphasis to implement alternative energies?
You might just be right about the gld though, from the perspective seasoned expert traders have thrown in the towel and advise not taking a position for what could be years.
RBA - Ripping higher - You guys can't see owning this one or is it against your institutional rules to even mutter the ticker like muttering PCP gets you fired or what?
It's the kind of thing the media does best, one of their best calls being the death of Apple Computer in 1997.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.imdb.com/title/tt3877200/
ReplyDeleteAnother outstanding miniseries, this one a mystery/thriller that begins when a 5-year-old child disappears while on vacation with his parents in France.
Unavailable on Netflix. Also unavailable on Amazon Prime, but the eight episodes can be viewed at your own pace on Amazon Instant Video for $14.99. Does that sound expensive? How much do you shell out to watch a 2-hour film at the local cineplex, and how many films are able to stand up to BBC writing/acting/production standards?
Great article:
ReplyDeletehttp://blogs.wsj.com/indiarealtime/2013/08/01/the-grandmother-with-faith-in-indian-stocks/
This is from two years ago but one stat stuck out: 5% of indians invest in stocks. I think what we are seeing with Gold may be a function of individual investors turning toward stocks. If this is true then gold may have a lot further to fall.
There once was a happy fisherman living a simple life on a small island. The fellow goes fishing for a few hours every day. He catches a few fish, sells them to his friends, and enjoys spending the rest of the day with his wife and children, and napping. He couldn’t imagine changing a thing in his relaxed and easy life.
ReplyDeleteA recent M.B.A. visits this island and quickly sees how this fisherman could become rich. He could catch more fish, start up a business, market the fish, open a cannery, maybe even issue an I.P.O. Ultimately he would become truly successful. He could donate some of his fish to hungry children worldwide and might even save lives.
“And then what?” asks the fisherman.
“Then you could spend lots of time with your family,” replies the visitor.
I always did like that one.
DeleteSpeaking about gold, check out this chart of COMEX futures positions:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.barchart.com/chart.php?sym=GCZ15&style=technical&template=&p=DN&d=X&sd=&ed=&size=M&log=0&t=BAR&v=0&g=1&evnt=1&late=1&o1=&o2=&o3=&sh=150&indicators=COTLC%2813369344%2C26112%2C153%29%3BCOTDLC%2813369344%2C26112%2C153%2C16750848%29&chartindicator_3_code=COTLC&chartindicator_3_param_0=13369344&chartindicator_3_param_1=26112&chartindicator_3_param_2=153&chartindicator_4_code=COTDLC&chartindicator_4_param_0=13369344&chartindicator_4_param_1=26112&chartindicator_4_param_2=153&chartindicator_4_param_3=16750848&addindicator=&submitted=1&fpage=&txtDate=#jump
It seems like we ought to have at least a small bounce, say to GLD = 110 or 115, because almost no one is left to sell gold on COMEX at this point, and COMEX forms by far the largest volume of gold trading in the west.
I just placed a buy limit order for 5 January 2017 $13 calls on GG at $3.00. If GLD returns to 110 (which is a very small bounce back to the previous support level) and GG returns to where it was with GLD at 110 (which is 20), then these calls options should more than double...
Palladium looks dirt cheap to me. Of course the $US could be about to go on a tear if you consider the US FED wants to be the only country raising rates, or at least says there's no plan to lower rates further thus should provide downside support for the currency?
DeleteCP, this "tear" for the $USD has already happened, as it ran up from 80 to 100 on expectations of EXACTLY this being the case. That run has ended, though, as this prospect seems to be fully priced in...
DeleteDavid, some say the Chinese economy is nowhere near 7% growth, more like 3~3.5% So there will be some kind of correction based on this once the truth comes out (seems to be happening?). Unless maybe it's already priced in, I really don't know so it's quite possible you may be right.
DeleteThe other point some have made is China's stock market seems to trade inversely to the Chinese economy, LOL, so it's confusing.
Well, we did just get a hammer on many commodities, so there's hope....
FCAU with good sales numbers again this morning - stock bid over $16 in premarket.
ReplyDeletehttp://seekingalpha.com/news/2683895-record-setting-month-for-jeep-models
Continuing to execute well. Maybe this is the run to $20 with Ferrari getting closer.
My brother-in-law bought a big RAM truck this weekend. Looked at it and the Silverado, but was so much cheaper, it was a no-brainer for him. I think that FCAU has done a good job of pricing their models, which is helping account for their share growth. Their starting to get their margins higher, and I think they still can raise prices further without hurting their attractiveness too much.
DeletePickup trucks are SUPPOSED to be ugly as sin, FCAU nailed it.
DeleteMMYT- Sold at 15.05. I've been well served lately selling the rips.
ReplyDeleteJONE - Tailspin, there.
ReplyDeleteBuy a 'stop run' on TWTR just below 30?
ReplyDeleteUSAP - Everyday is red.
ReplyDeleteIWM is clearly lagging QQQ recently, indicating a large divergence between the few "darling" companies and the broad market. Even inside Russell 2000, there is a large divergence between price and A/D line:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.masterdata.com/Reports/Combined/ADLine/Daily/$RUT.htm
I heard somewhere that more than half of the issues on NYSE are trading below their 200 day MA. This is not a healthy market. I just sold all the Oracle stock options that vested for me this summer and converted that money into TZA and QID (in 2:3 ratio).
The trading plan is to sell TZA if IWM rises above the recent peak (say reaches $124), and then sell QID if QQQ makes a new all-time high.
Tough to buy TZA / QID here in the short term given the recent downturn but good luck. i still think the global economy is ok and in particular the us economy is good which would make it harder for the market to have much more than a 10% or so correction. valuations aren't ridiculously high, especially relative to the bond market.
DeleteNice sell on MMYT market. i'm just gonna hold on and wait for the inevitable euphoric rise in indian internet stocks...might take 5 years.
ReplyDeleteBummed I missed out on Rolls Royce. Nice call BB.
FCAU holding up well in this rough market.
Wish I had bought more Rolls Royce. Usually buying in tranches works to my advantage in getting a lower cost, but now it's up 10% in 2 days, so I only got a starter position (1/3 or 1/2 of what I'd want) in it. \
DeleteMaybe I'll get a chance to add.
Here is a way to make some almost free money over the next few months - feel free to use, but don't broadcast as I have a few friends who are still getting positions.
ReplyDeleteTake a look at KCLI. They filed to buy out all shareholders of less than 250 shares for $52.50 and the stock is at $47.09. The buyout is set to occur in mid-December, so if you buy now, you make 12.54% or 35.8% annualized (you will also receive 2 dividends, one if you buy by Aug 4 and the second in Oct).
http://www.bizjournals.com/kansascity/news/2015/07/28/kansas-city-life-starts-process-to-go-private.html
http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/54473/000101410815000191/kcli-form8k_jul272015.htm
They haven't filed the proxy yet, so there is a very small chance this doesn't happen, but it is a solid company and half owned by one family who wants this to happen, so unless something really unexpected comes up, it will happen. It was trading around $43 before the news came out, so the downside risk is very reasonable in my opinion. I'd say 99% chance it goes ahead and 1% not.
The reason the arb funds aren't in here buying up all the shares is because at under 250 shares, it is not worth their while, but it works great for small guys like us. I have bought 249 shares in several accounts. Because it is being done via a reverse and forward split, the reverse split will empty out all my accounts. I was concerned that the buyout might be by owner of the stock, so I read prospectuses of a couple other of these and it is by account, so feel safe.
Here's the details for the one done by TZOO
http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1133311/000134100413000798/def14a.htm
Same with long after hours. Getting bought for $18 by tencent but look where it's trading
DeleteLONG isn't one of those "Hotel California" stocks you can't sell, is it?
DeleteAll positions will be stopped out today, most below my entry points from last week's lows. Last Wednesday's gains are history! I'm fairly confident that the final phase of capitulation is underway in commodities and emerging markets. However, I'm not 100% certain. One tenet of my trading is immediate liquidation when positions move against me, which is just another way of saying I will not tolerate large losses. In this case, the portfolio experienced nice gains last Wednesday, a pullback on Thursday, then a partial 'take back' of gains on Friday.
ReplyDeleteToday's trading has FCX (Freeport McMoran) + NEM (Newmont Mining) + USO (Crude) + XLE (Energy) printing new lows. EEM (Emerging Markets) + GDX (miners) + OIH (oil services) are close to doing so as well. Should prices continue to decline tomorrow on high volume, support levels for these assets will be anyone's guess. Therefore, although the odds are good everything bounces on Tuesday, I'm out on Monday. A +1% gain for the portfolio at last Wednesday's highs will likely end the day at a -1% loss. No worries. I don't expect to win every trade, and my priority is capital preservation.
Trying MMYT at 13.99. I have no idea how I keep trading new 52 week lows and make money. Luck.
ReplyDeleteTrying ENPH at 5.42.
DeleteSWN took a dive, AKS was low risk.
ReplyDeleteLet's travel to Zimbabwe and shoot a lion mascot. All it requires is a ton of money and money isn't everything, right?
ReplyDeleteFLY - Now the gap up obligation is closed.
ReplyDeleteGoing to assassinate carbon emissions, place your bets!
ReplyDeleteHi David-
ReplyDeleteGood to hear from you! To be honest, however, I don't like what I'm hearing.
I think you should close all positions tomorrow, park your brokerage assets in cash, and await an opportunity you can't refuse. In fact, that's exactly what I should do as well.
CNX - Ouch, Einhorn gonna keep buying that or look for the exits?
ReplyDeleteThe 'gurus' who buy low and sell high all seem to take poundings before their positions pay off. Look at PBR, VALE, GLD. Maybe they're rich enough not to care, or they're playing mainly with OPM. Personally, I can't do it. I can't take that kind of pain.
DeleteWhen you run big money, you have to trade this way, unless it is a huge stock. It takes time to build a large position and time to get out, so you have to start buying early and selling early. If you wait for the bottom to be in, you'll push the price up as you buy.
DeleteJust how bad is it in the commodities sector? This post does a good job with the big picture:
ReplyDeletehttp://jlfmi.tumblr.com/post/125790885155/pfffthe-post-2009-commodity-gains-are-gone-the
Yikes, wow.... Wonder if it's indicative of something bigger or isolated to commodities? I wouldn't want to buy into something in distribution, done that too many times already.
DeleteFCAU- This one pisses me off a bit.
ReplyDeleteUp $0.30 in AH, what's to be pissed about?
DeleteI wish the others could go up to help out FCAU some more. I think the performance of f / Gm / Vlkay is keeping fcau down. I bet this all turns around though just like when BAC was down a few years ago on unwarranted fears
Delete$WTIC - Come on oil, just go to $30 already, okay?
ReplyDeleteBluetooth boot - These boots were made for walkin'....
ReplyDeleteEWA - Wonder what changed? If Chinese government is propping their market by making it illegal to trade then gains can't be trusted.
ReplyDeleteREXX - Ouch..... Definitely not in an upward channel.
CVS's sales are down about 8%, since stopping sales of tobacco products. Now they can focus more on selling drugs until/if that also becomes a politically incorrect business model. Stuff with sugar instead of chemical artificial sweeteners should also be considered, no soda or candy, just wholesome foods that aren't GMO, right? Tiger bone powder sounds good to me...
ReplyDeleteAn economic slowdown would be a quick and effective mechanism for discouraging consumption of fossil fuels to combat global warming, no?
ReplyDeleteCNX - There ya go, another great big day it seems.
ReplyDeleteJust shot Mark a message and figured I'd share it here. I haven't added to my MMYT since $15 because I hate trying to catch these falling knives (my avg price is a lot higher at $18ish), but this is reminiscent of ENPH back in December 2013. Its more oversold now than ENPH was a year and a half ago. RSI is at 16.9. ENPH was at 17.52 on 12/12/13. That led to a 84% increase over 8 weeks. Not saying same will happen here but worth keeping an eye on.
ReplyDeleteAlso, an 84% increase from here is around $24 which is where it started its free fall from back in mid May. An interesting level. It also is a reversal of half of the drop from $36 to $13.
DeleteI'm still waiting for news on a partnership from Flipkart which was rumored 2 weeks ago. That could be a catalyst. Also, LONG was bought out last week at a multiple that would equate to $22 for MMYT and LONG is a bit of a POS website in China...they have a 9% market share vs 40%+ for MMYT and they have declining net revenues.
meant long was bought out last night.
DeleteAnd Flipkart is India's version of BABA. They just raised funding at a $15 Billion valuation.
$22 is what I recall my broker has as the current objective. Different analyst of course, same broker had much higher price objectives on oil stocks last year this time and has been making a mint on that short.
DeleteI've never put any faith in analyst price estimates. I see a few with $38 price targets from last year. I bet they downgrade to $18 targets now. Most of these guys don't have skin in the game so they don't look at it with the same vigor as a shareholder in my opinion. I'd rather hear from a shareholder with a good track record.
DeleteWill Hillary be passed the presidential torch?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.motherjones.com/environment/2014/09/hillary-clinton-fracking-shale-state-department-chevron
Half a billion solar panels by 2021, what would be the margin on those?
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/07/26/3684585/hillary-clintons-climate-plan-released/
LMT - This one goes up everyday, better chance of making money in an uptrend.
ReplyDeleteThere was in fact a bounce this morning, decidedly of the 'dead cat' variety.
ReplyDelete(a) EEM (emerging markets) hit an intraday high of 36.93 early, which was quickly sold. It's now trading in the 36.6x's. I'm contemplating another swing, but I'd be swinging at a curve ball. EWZ (Brazil) also gave up early gains to retest its lows.
(b) GDX (miners) also opened strong, but now red and threatening to set a new 52-wk low. FCX (Freeport McMoran, a proxy for copper prices) printed a new low with a 10-handle, handing insiders who recently bought in the low twenties a -50% haircut!
(c) OIH (oil services) three cents away from a new low. XLE (energy) has already printed a new low.
It's not always necessary to trade.
ENPH reports AH.
ReplyDeleteBORING....and basically guiding flat for Q3.
DeletePut/Call is favorable?
ReplyDeletehttp://jlfmi.tumblr.com/post/125855879680/equity-options-traders-head-for-the-hills
NAV - That was a really bad day, huh?
ReplyDeleteREXX - Wow, look at all those tails on the candles going into the second half of the session, was it really trading up to $2.30 and back to $1.98?
ReplyDeleteVA - Meanwhile, VA is ripping tits off.
ReplyDeleteBirinyi was on CNBC looking for 3000 S&P
ReplyDeleteWatched that - nice to to see a normal portfolio manager on there.
Delete"We own lots of stocks, but have some cash. We don't know what we'll buy. We'll just watch the market and buy what gets to be good value"
Jeff Saut looking for lower lows to be hit mid August, then new all time highs thereafter.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.raymondjames.com/multimedia2.htm?url=Saut_Daily.wma&player=wmp&target=int&width=300&height=0
DeleteUSCR - Concrete is one commodity benefiting from low energy prices.
ReplyDeleteLooks like a slow day for me. Everything I'm interested in is already moved to far.
ReplyDelete....so I did this instead. Added to BXE @ 1.88/9
DeleteKCLI filed their SEC Proxy.
ReplyDeleteRisk is down, so stock now up to $48.50, but even at that price, you can make over 9% in a little over 4 months, pretty much guaranteed, on $12,000 per account you can buy it in,
http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/54473/000101410815000202/kcli-pre14a_aug42015.htm
Another view on this (basically the same as mine):
Deletehttp://seekingalpha.com/instablog/747089-alpha-hungry/4247215-kansas-city-life-going-private-arbitrage
ENPH- Ut oh.
ReplyDeleteA bit of a mis out of ING this morning. Nice dividend announcement and commit to return 40%+ of profits to shareholders. Stock down some.
ReplyDeleteBut I'm thinking of selling though as it is now over book value and will be harder for it to move up. You can still buy big US banks like C and BAC at 85% of book and they are turning their business around, unlike ING which already has done so, so probably easier for them to move up.
Taking another swing @ RYWVX (Rydex 2x Emerging Markets) at the 1030 est window. Why? It's a decent pitch. My take on the 'pitch:'
ReplyDelete(a) Lots of selling into strength yesterday (Tuesday), which then continued throughout the day despite a steady decline in price.
(b) This morning's 'gap up' met with more selling.
(c) Sellers are done for now.
(d) Swing for a short-term bounce in the likely absence of additional sellers at current levels.
Been busy all morning. Bought some BITA at $38.4. I'm eyeing a very similar chart pattern as NTES back 10 years ago. Looking for a move to $60. I will add on a "breakdown" on earnings as I think it will suck out people just as they should be adding.
ReplyDeleteI added a small amount at $37.6. Keeping it small in general in case they drop it hard on earnings.
DeleteWhen does BITA report?
ReplyDeleteI'm showing after market tomorrow. I'm planning on holding longer term (ie 4-6 months) on this so started with small position and will add on a drop on earnings.
DeleteMy thinking from sentiment standpoint is pretty simple...there's this big movement to online going on in China for autos which is a major tailwind. But investors are punishing the stock because they perceive auto sales in China as slowing down. Reminds me a lot of why people sold off MA back in 2008 despite tailwinds from movement to debit/credit cards.
DeleteBXE - What a complete scam, nothing has been done correctly.
ReplyDeleteIt's just the sector. I have never seen such a wipe out in so many commodities.
DeleteCHILLING as OJ
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p13yZAjhU0M
Deletehomesick
Deletehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=omG-hZfN6zk
Thank you for the advice, 2nd_ave! In the past, your advices were always spot on... I just set tight sell stop orders for my large ultrashort positions: at $9.70 for TZA and at $30.70 for QID. If those are hit, then I will keep the cash safe until I see an opportunity I can't refuse.
ReplyDeleteI did have a few K left over from the sales of my Oracle options, and I decided to press my "gold" trade this morning by buying 12 January 2017 calls on GDX at $2.70. After the recent collapse, GLD is staying flat for almost two weeks now. Seems like the selling is done, buy no buyers want to touch it yet. Given the fact that gold is pretty much trading now at production cost, it would make sense that the downside is very limited at this point. No wonder commercial specs have almost closed their shorts on COMEX -- they don't feel the need to hedge their downside at this point. Such low levels of commercial shorts have always preceeded large bounces on GLD...
WMT peeking over 50 dma first time in awhile.
ReplyDeleteWow. This market is brutal for anything internet related, excluding PCLN, EXPE, GOOGL, AMZN, NFLX. I'm down 5% on my small position of BITA that I bought just a couple of hours ago. This is a stock that was down 60% from highs a year ago.
ReplyDeleteZ is now down 17% from highs after hours last night.
LNKD hit $259 in AH trading after its earnings report. Those buyers are now down 26%.
MMYT was down 32% from its close the day before earnings, after already having been down 47% from last year's highs.
Granted, some of these are overvalued and deserving of drops like this but the moves seem like there's a lot of fear out there, definitely not indicative of risk-taking right now in the market.
That's nothing, bro. Try commodities.
DeleteAdded another small piece of BITA at $36.15. Position size is 4%.
ReplyDelete(a) GDX (miners) sinks to a new low today at 13.16.
ReplyDelete(b) USO (oil) prints a new low today.
(c) EEM (Emerging Markets) gapped up, only to meet supply, currently about -0.5% from my 1030 est entry.
(d) CVX (Chevron), a major Bay Area energy player, has now slumped -10% since the end of July, and -25% since May.
(e) GREK (Greece) making its way to new lows as well, now off -3.64% @ 9.28.
The kind of decimation taking place in commodities right now is gut-wrenching. The plunge in prices of copper, oil, grains, natural gas, and even coffee is literally driving companies out of business.
Anyone holding miners, oils, or commodities ETFs is down well over -50%. One very smart trader I follow recommended that clients buy CHK (Chesapeake) around 12, then recommended it more strongly when it dropped to 10. I started watching closely at 10, played a few times in the nines...and today it's 7.12 (after briefly hitting an intraday low of 6.98)!
I'm not quite sure what to make of the seemingly endless declines in the sector. Both OIH (oil services) + XLE (energy) hit new lows today, and have reversed somewhat. GDX (miners) has yet to show any buying interest.
My sentiment-based trading system 'tells' me enough traders have been shaken down to support a rally. On the other hand, I never argue with price.
(a) There's absolutely no reason to reopen a position in miners, with GDX gapping even lower as I type, now @ 13.07.
(b) The reversal in OIH leaves me with a possible 'pitch' in RYVIX.
(c) EEM retested (yet again) its recent lows in the mid-36 range. Today will be the third consecutive day the ETF has sold off from an opening high (while trading near its 52-wk nadir), which historically has marked a tradable low.
Unless things change in the final minutes, I plan to open a position in RYVIX + add a second tranche to RYWVX (Rydex 2x Emerging Markets) at the close. If both sectors continue to sell off on Thursday, then by definition they will be setting new lows and I'll just wish remaining investors the best!
ENOC - ? Up in premarket
ReplyDeleteI still have that in an account I'm managing. I need to get on the call they had...my assumption is they made some comments about the EIS division being spun off???
DeleteWas down 25% at one point, now its up 10%. Go figure.
DeleteEnded up taking the 8% gain. Screw it. This market is no joke anymore.
DeleteJONE - Only down by 30%
ReplyDeleteYou had your chance!
DeleteSigns of life in the commodities sector. Reopened starter positions in the following:
ReplyDelete(a) FCX (Freeport McMoran) @ 10.91.
(b) GDX (miners) @ 13.17.
(c) RSX (Russia) @ 16.44.
(d) PBR (Petrobras) @ 6.19.
Also reopened a trading position in EXAS (Exact Sciences) @ 23.31.
You have balls man.
DeleteI've been just sitting on the sidelines observing prices for the energy stocks, keeping an eye on those stocks that don't make new lows as oil plummets.
I still think it's wise to avoid any banks with exposure to energy (ie Texas banks). I'm holding some KTHN and FSFG for the longer term. I don't believe they have exposure to energy but this was all clearly a potential black swan event for the banking industry.
ReplyDeleteHow about banks with exposure to military contractors? EVBS
DeleteUSCR - See, concrete production requires a lot of energy, natty gas to bake the portland cement.
ReplyDeleteHII - I guess if the US changes course and makes peace with the world we can cut the military budget and lay off amry/navy/marines, reduce carbon footprint of military in a huge way?
ReplyDeleteWell, so today ONCE AGAIN, the SPX is down.... When do we short this thing?
ReplyDeleteAt the bottom of course!
DeleteSolar - This sector is driving me nuts..... F'ers. Oil too, JONE and BXE going bankrupt as a result of unsustainable debt.
ReplyDeleteIMH - Reports in AH
ReplyDeletePMT - Mt broker has been promoting this one since $24, I think it was. And, bearish on HII, f'in turds.
OZM - Okay so why did this one tank, what's this move saying?
ReplyDeleteSPF - At bottom of channel, will it drop through? judging by the remainder of this merket it looks like it.
ReplyDeleteCOP - Here's one for ya...
ReplyDeleteRBA - This one's gonna kick azz once all the Texas liquidations begin.
ReplyDeleteMy broker has it as underperform, how much you wanna bet it jumps in AH on earnings? I guess if it doesn't, that would mean liquidations aren't rocketing?
DeleteYRCW - Holy shift, guys?
ReplyDeleteYeah sucks Man. I had a decent chunk of that at $13 and sold at like $12.70
DeleteREXX - Bucking the trend - This was a Stanford Endowment pick, I read.
ReplyDeleteCENX - Reports in AH, another one that drops 30% ?
ReplyDeleteeyes - Well, of course.
ReplyDeleteTA - Down only 18% now, not bad at all.....
ReplyDeleteThey're taking em all down now!
Delete"Maryland is one of the worst states for distressed sales" I guess this means homes....
ReplyDeleteOne last question then I'll shut up..... If the POTUS intends on halting the out of control war machine then what happens to the economy of the nation's capital and all the military contractors here sucking on government tit? Where does that money go aside from pushing the $US higher (due to lack of sufficient waste on stuff for waging war maybe $300B I'm guessing)?
Perhaps unemployed veteran housing and veteran education?
I just moved the stops on my large ultrashort positions in TZA and QID to breakeven points. If those stops are hit, then it would mean that IWM had made a double bottom at $120 using intraday prices over the last 2 weeks. Thus, it would make sense to re-enter the short side only if IWM breaks below $120, which is what I will do *IF* I get stopped out of my ultrashorts today or tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteGood timing, 2nd_ave, on entering GDX this morning!!!
Seeing lots of fear creeping into the market...if Jeff Saut is right and we see a mid August low we should see some really bearish reads on $CPCE, CNN Fear and Greed index, etc. Sentiment is getting dour on Stocktwits:
ReplyDelete59% Bears: http://stocktwits.com/symbol/SPY
Is that an inverted H&S pattern I see? http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p72504199834
Interesting to see all of this negativity when economic reports are actually strengthening, per the ISM / PMI reports yesterday and the past 2 weeks of jobless claims, which were all really, really strong.
whoa...have you seen SUNE? that thing was at $33 just two weeks ago
ReplyDeleteEinhorn has to be feelings the blues.
DeleteI sold BITA for a small gain. probably unwise but i’m done holding hand grenades in this market
ReplyDeleteTo put China’s construction bonanza in perspective, the country used more cement in 3 years than the USA used in the entire 20th century:
ReplyDeleteHoly crap man, wonder if they're still exceeding US consumption?
DeleteOA - Heading for orbit?
ReplyDeleteBITA Looks like a top/bottom line beat w/ guide lower. Guidance: $162 Mill Revs and $0.24 guidance vs $171M and $0.30. Not sure where it will fall to.
ReplyDeleteLPI - I think it was this one, reported much lower cost. BXE of course reported high cost to produce.
ReplyDeleteWas out for the day - that was quite a trade in JONE. Down 40% at the open, but finished flat. Somebody made some horrible trades there.
ReplyDeletethere was only 200 shares that went through at $4.53. Probably a mistake. Outside of that the lowest trade was $5.41.
DeleteSeems a bit panicky out there. Cramer on TV tonight saying don't buy this dip - "the market character has changed".
ReplyDeletePersonally, I'm finding the market to be just fine. My portfolio is within 1% of it's all-time high and I'm pretty sure I made money today (TD won't tell me till tomorrow).
Stocks like AGO and CAM.TO reported good quarters and were up 3%. The losses on most of my other stocks were also quite small.
It really does seem like we are seeing the shift from growth outperformance to value outperformance. This means the high fliers with poor valuation support like tech, biotech, etc. get hit and the still cheap stocks, that grow with the economy, like financials and energy go up.
We'll see what happens over the next few months, but I'm feeling pretty good still.
NUAN - I dunno why this one looks weak in AH, seems revenues were flat yet they beat by a decent amount on eps.
ReplyDeleteATVI - This chart doesn't look anything like ENPH/NWLI/MMYT/BXE/JONE/etc.....
ReplyDeleteA mixed finish.
ReplyDelete(a) GDX (miners) caught a bid, soaring close to +5% by mid-session, only to close up just +2.14%. RYPMX (Rydex Precious Metals) finished somewhat better @+3.1%.
(b) EEM (Emerging Markets) were weak the entire session, posting a -0.87% loss for the day. RYWVX (Rydex 2x Emerging Markets) finished -1.05%.
(c) OIH (oil services) slammed at the open to set a new 52-wk low, but ended the day strong, +3.54%. RYVIX (Rydex Energy Services) closed up a solid +3.73%.
(d) FCX (Freeport McMoran) closed @ 11.21, +2.74% from my opening basis.
(e) PBR (Petrobras) closed @ 6.49, +4.84% from basis.
(f) RSX (Russia) closed slightly above basis.
I should note that CHK (Chesapeake), a stock which I considered but ruled out, ended the day +16.5% @ 8.19! That would have been what is called a 'proposition bet' in craps, one with terrible odds but a high payout. No regrets.
NWLI - Reported earnings but man, I can't make heads or tails of the announcement.
ReplyDeleteNVDA - Will be a big gain tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteARP - Leon Cooperman owns this?
ReplyDeleteWhat is this, an arbitrage making use of corporate hedges, right?
ReplyDeletehttp://seekingalpha.com/article/3397035-over-100-percent-upsides-and-gains-posted-by-monthly-pay-dividend-dogs-for-august-2016?source=nasdaq
NWLI had good earnings and ytd good as well. The increase in book value, which is also important for a financial company, was less than the increase in earnings, so must have been an asset revaluation or something similar. The actual SEC earnings filing will have the details, usually out in a day or two.
ReplyDeleteIs this Leon Cooperman's trades?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.finviz.com/insidertrading.ashx?oc=898382&tc=7
ARP - Long @ $3.07....
ReplyDeleteOff @ $3.50
Deletewtf. Has this blog turned you into a day trader?
DeleteI'm playing defense, copying you and Mark. :)
DeleteAdded to most positions following the negative reaction to 'non-farm payrolls' this morning. In my opinion, any single monthly report is a 'non-event' in and of itself, but conveniently used as an excuse to flush weak hands.
ReplyDeleteI even opened a position in CHK in the 8.20 range (basically, near the close of yesterday's +16.5% move). It may be a 'tell' re washed out sentiment in the commodities sector. Currently at 8.94. Very high risk play.
MCRN - lol, yeah sure.
ReplyDeleteDespite the generally negative reaction to NFP thus far, my opinion is the markets (US indexes included) will be testing recent highs again. Today's close will be telling.
ReplyDeleteGood to see some early strength in AAPL vs a down market. Will be telling if they erase that strength though.
ReplyDeleteCENX - Wonder if the rogue trader was short? If so, was that his personal account or on behalf of shareholders too?
ReplyDelete"Jul-02-15 Reiterated Deutsche Bank Buy $25 → $19"
Public services - Craig's list "safe zones" are police station parking lots.
ReplyDeleteCNX - Oh, not again!
ReplyDeleteSCCO - We need to see something less than $25 before getting too worried. Maybe someone knows this?
ReplyDeleteNATI - These guys I think, are going to benefit from subsidized educational programs.
Both QQQ and IWM are trading now below the July 28th intraday low, which makes 2 lower highs and lower lows for QQQ since its all-time high on July 20th, and 3 lower highs and lower lows for IWM, which set its all-time high on June 23. Unless these ETFs can bounce back above July 28th levels today, I would say the chances of more downside next week are very high. Given the large drop in indices in the past few days, I am surprised at how little fear there is out there -- VIX is still at 14.XX! In the past, such declines would push VIX to 18. I guess that's another reason as to why we should have more weakness next week -- people are not panicking yet.
ReplyDeleteHere is an e-mail I received from Zacks this morning:
"Were you bothered by the market action on Thursday?
I hope not. Remember this is still a long term bull market til proven otherwise. And in the short run it is range bound.
Sometimes we slowly gyrate from the top of the range to the bottom...and right back up. And sometimes it's a more violent move like Thursday. But at the end of the day, it's the same basic outcome.
Those with weak hands (and stomachs) get thrown from the bull just as it is ready to head higher. Don't let this happen to you."
The advisers at Zacks are probably reading other advisers as well, so this must be the prevalent mood out there. Hence the low VIX today...
Yep, last time we had a crash with lower lows going much lower in rabid fashion, PMs followed. Can't imagine how it could be any different this time especially considering central banks are out of bullets for pulling demand forward?
DeleteBank of Switzerland is probably buying more AAPL today, though.
DeleteAre there any profitable PM miners that have no debt?
Delete"Are there any profitable PM miners that have no debt?" -- that's an oxymoron. :)
DeleteAnd think about what happens if stocks being crashing traders get margin calls thus are forced to liquidate everything.
DeleteCENX - Going under $5 perhaps?
ReplyDeleteHAL - Not far from $36.9, getting there...
ReplyDeleteJNS - What's happening to the high and mighty, did they bet incorrectly?
ReplyDeleteBID - Falling off a cliff today....
ReplyDeleteRBA - No interest in this auctioneer who's about to conduct record used equipment auctions for all the defaulted oil companies and destroyed debt?
ReplyDeleteUsed equipment prices trend lower but that can easily be made up for in volume, which appears to be poised for liftoff, wouldn't you think?
Delete"Ritchie Bros: Another strong ARR but will it last- Key thoughts heading into conference call
8/7/2015 2:10 AM.Ritchie reported a strong set of Q2 results. The key highlight was the better than expected ARR (12.3% vs BofAe 11.8%). The strong ARR in the 1H (12.2%) may provide some support that RBA is entering a structurally higher ARR level. While the results are certainly +ve, we have some questions on sustainability going fwd as used equipment prices trend lower."
I'm here by myself all day.......
I think it's a good sign AAPL has held up all day. Been watching that one closely. If it can put a bottom in here it would help the tech stocks I think.
ReplyDeleteBID is down big, the "indicator" is fake? Swiss national bank buys AAPL
DeleteYeah, that's definitely concerning. I'm talking just for the next few days. I think we get a rally first, then not sure.
DeleteI bought some $116 AAPL calls expiring next week. Not much. I missed the IBB down move due to being too busy this week with my website and managing my shitty MMYT position and the move up in FCAU (I decided to sell, not sure why) so the account I put the small $$ into for options I figure I will try it on a gut instinct trade here, that AAPL is due for a bounce after a $20 drubbing in 3 weeks.
DeleteCENX - Nibbled a little more, my basis is $7.06
ReplyDeleteAXP - Valuact? AXP is up considerably today.
ReplyDeleteHeading into the close, an earlier -132-point decline in the DJIA has been narrowed to -47 points.
ReplyDelete(a) GDX (miners) have given up an early +4% gain to trade flat.
(b) FCX (Freeport McMoran) has given up all of yesterday's gains and has now set a new 52-wk low.
(c) OIH (oil services) has retraced 75% of Thursday's spectacular rally.
(e) EEM (Emerging Markets) is treading water, with gains in China offset by weakness in Brazil.
The above scenario is 'good' from the perspective of maximum frustration. The unrelenting disappointment leads more traders to give up each day, allowing markets to ultimately rally with minimal participation.
I bought a 20% position in AAPL today around $115.2. I think even if this heads lower we will see a rally to as high at $124/125 soon.
ReplyDeleteEven though QQQ finished above yesterday's lows, IWM finished below those lows, so I wouldn't say that all is well for next week. If anything, this just looks like the conditioned "buy this dip" behavior, especially in the "darling" large hi-tech stocks. We may very well keep sliding the slope of hope until VIX rises above 18.
ReplyDeleteHope and climate change.
DeleteDavid - I would be very cautious being short here. I will say that the market is looking toppy, no doubt. It looks a lot like the 1972 top.
Deletehttp://charts.stocktwits.com/production/original_40996772.jpg?1438978865
Below the 200DMA for the Dow and rolling over, with the 50DMA about to cross below the 200DMA...that's a recipe for more pain. HOwever, I don't think this market will die easily. A rally back up above the 50 DMA could be in order quickly...a 500 point rally out of nowhere.
If it's like the 1972 market then everyone trading it will get chewed up and spit out.
I think the most important thing to watch right now is the biotechs. Is it 1987?
DeleteTOF, I think the time for rallies to new highs has past. The market has been topping for more than a year now (IWM closed today at the March 7, 2014 level). Recently, the market breadth has deteriorated significantly. Take a look at the A/D line for NASDAQ 100:
Deletehttp://www.masterdata.com/Reports/Combined/ADLine/Daily/$NDX.htm
Fewer and fewer stocks are participating in the rally. I doubt we'll see new highs any time soon...
David - I'm not saying we definitely get new highs, but if you're short you have to be on guard for at the very least a rally to slightly above the 50 DMA
DeleteNonetheless Biotechs will be a major factor. If they can't put in a bottom here soon then this market has farther to fall
DeleteTOF, I am "on guard" for a rally, as I moved the stops on my large ultrashort positions to my entry points, so as not to lose any money on them. If I am stopped out, then I'll just wait for the indices to break below today's intraday lows to re-enter the short side.
DeleteJONE - Down ANOTHER 12% today..... Such a great stock! :)
ReplyDeleteIMH - Ouch! I think the FED should raise rates immediately, toot-sweet!
ReplyDeleteHGSH - Green shoots!!!
ReplyDeleteUSG - I'm the first to notice, had a feeling.....
ReplyDeleteAs for the GLD, it seems clear to me that we are witnessing a local (or maybe long-term) the bottoming phase. After the 2014/2015 double bottom at 110 was broken, all the weak hands were shaken out, but surprisingly, GLD did not drop like a stone -- it dropped a little and then halted its slide, and since then it was bouncing up and down for 2 weeks. This is a standard bottoming formation, the same that we saw in September 2011 for SPY. So I am debating as to whether I should sell all my ultrashort position and put ALL that money into January 2017 GDX calls -- wouldn't that be something? :)
ReplyDeleteWhat about GGN, for the divy?
DeleteOr better yet, something solar or alternative power since we're being told in no uncertain terms there will be huge emphasis to implement alternative energies?
DeleteYou might just be right about the gld though, from the perspective seasoned expert traders have thrown in the towel and advise not taking a position for what could be years.
DeleteNBL - Wonder what MOG is thinking now?
ReplyDeleteBest Buy will sell the APPL watch, is Apple cutting losses on surplus devices?
ReplyDeleteEWG - 7.2% weighted to BAS..... Wonder what BAS has to do with Germany?
ReplyDeleteWonder what President Trump is up to this morning?
ReplyDeleteThat's funny!
DeleteI like the AAPL idea.
ReplyDeleteENOC- About right I guess.
ReplyDeleteENPH/SEDG- These 2 really need to be paired together from now on.
ReplyDeletePACB - Getting roasted. How much you wanna bet the move is fake?
ReplyDeleteWatch TWTR today.
ReplyDelete27.66 is a level to watch.
DeleteARP - Does this one pay 100% in dividends before the hedges expire? Not sure if that's correct?
ReplyDeleteBXE - This one goes down every damn day...... WTF?
ReplyDeleteRBA - Ripping higher - You guys can't see owning this one or is it against your institutional rules to even mutter the ticker like muttering PCP gets you fired or what?
ReplyDelete..or we just don't know anything about it?
Delete