Monday, August 10, 2015

8/10/15 It's lonely out in space

A 'gap up' open in US indexes this morning is likely to disallow easy boarding for sidelined investors, and leave last week's weak hands with 'seller's regret.'

(a) DJIA +170 points.
(b) EEM (Emerging Markets) +1.2%. EWZ (Brazil) +1.9%.  FXI (China 'H' shares) +1.9%.  CAF (China 'A' Shares) +3% following last night's +5% rally in the Shanghai Composite.  RSX (Russia) +1.63%.
(c) PBR (Petrobras) +4%.
(d) FCX (Freeport McMoran) plunged to another 52-low at the open, delivering a sucker punch to long-term investors before reversing nicely to print a +5% gain 30 minutes later.
(e) GDX (miners) looking good, +3.85%.
(f) USO (crude) delivered its own sucker punch to set a new low, now rising sharply @ +2%.
(g) OIH (oil services) +2.73%, recovering all of Friday's losses.
(h) CHK (Chesapeake) +5.5% and challenging Friday's highs.

204 comments:

  1. Could be the start of a strong run into year-end.

    Still think this is the likely scenario for the rest of the year.

    Traders seem negative and the economy is growing and rates still low. Hard to see what will cause things to fall off badly.

    Was out with my really bad investor friend on the weekend and he thinks we will have a crash because of the Fed raising interest rates. He is a great contrarian indicator.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hope you're right. I got back up to fully invested on Friday, thankfully. Holding MMYT, FCAU, EDC, KTHN, FSFG right now.

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  2. So I see that indices decided to move right back above the July 28 intraday lows. No sense in being short at this point. I was stopped out flat this morning from my QID position. When I woke up, my TZA position was still in the green, but I just sold it for lunch money. Instead, I recycled a part of that money into 1K shares of GDX at $14.10, and also 10 GDX January 2016 calls with $13 strike at $2.19 each. I think the gold miner rally is just starting. From such low levels of commercial hedging, all rallies in the past have usually lasted at least a couple of weeks...

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    Replies
    1. Good job getting out immediately.

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    2. A good trader that I follow has been targeting $860 for Gold for a long, long time.

      Delete
  3. Dang I should have held on to my AAPL calls. I sold them for a 70% gain and missed out on another 70% gain. I may end up closing the account down though as I hate trading options. I set it up to play a potential crash in IBB or XBI...need to look at this closer to see how this setup is transpiring.

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    Replies
    1. Why did you have to set up another account for options?

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    2. Options suck you in - they let you win for a while and they take it all back and more. There like the Casino.

      At least in my experience!

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    3. Mark - I have most of 95% of my money set up in retirement type account that doesn't have options. I wanted to set aside money to play a potential crash in IBB or XBI...was thinking of pulling a set amount each month and buying far out of the money options for the next few months. Enough that if I'm right then a 20 bagger turns into a decent amount, but not enough to screw with my returns of my main portfolio.

      I haven't done any trades yet on IBB / XBI because I was thinking mid / late august would be the peak and then there would be a significant pullback with an attempt at rallying back to old highs that fails (was thinking like late Sept / early October) followed by a crash. I initially targeted $400 for IBB and it hit that exactly. I probably should have bought the puts there. But I think the best odds are after a initial pullback and then an attempt at the old highs.

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    4. meant to say 95% of my money in that main account.

      The crash setup usually works best after you see a legitimate blowoff type move and then you have to watch really, really closely for the subsequent rally peak. What I would be looking for on the subsequent rally is much weaker RSI / momentum readings and possibly a big reversal day where its up big in the morning and fades all morning long.

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  4. Doubled my position in SORL today - it is still a small position, but at current valuation after the recent pullback, it's hard to see how it doesn't work out.

    I originally bought in 2012 at $2.47 and have held through some good upswings and should have sold, but still think it gets back over $8.00 at least.

    Book value is over $10, is trading at a p/e of 3, has no long term debt, has lots of cash, profitable, trading for less than half of liquidation value, etc.

    Still some China risk of course, but I think this is low, given how long the company has been operating and it is so cheap, I think something good has to eventually happen

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    Replies
    1. Holly crap that's a lot to go through!

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    2. As always with these Chinese companies, need to make sure you have very limited $$ at risk because there's literally no assurance they aren't lying through their teeth about the business. The only assurance I can find is with website companies. In addition to being able to see their site and follow what people say about them, there's legit ways to track the traffic they get to their site. That's why if its a China / India / etc company, unless its a blue chip, I want to stick with the website companies.

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    3. Thought about selling a number of times, but keep thinking it should be able to get up close to a "fair value". Maybe my estimate of fair value is not realistic, but if it can hit $8.00, even by say 2018, would be a 25% annual return.

      Good it's a small one though!

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  5. All sectors mentioned this morning have extended their gains. There's a possibility of retracement for each of the rallies, but there's a stronger possibility that prices simply gap up further, stranding investors not already on board. It's not easy to buy into a +5% rally, and more difficult still to buy the following day.

    (a) FCX (Freeport McMoran), after briefly plunging to 2008 lows, is now up +10.12%.
    (b) EEM (Emerging Markets) now +1.8%. EWZ (Brazil) +3.25%. FXI ('H' Shares) +2.3%. RSX (Russia) +2.83%. GREK (Greece) +6%.
    (c) GDX (miners) +5.22%.
    (d) OIH (oil services) +4.26%. USO (Crude) +2.37%.
    (e) PBR (Petrobras) +6%.
    (f) EXAS (Exact Sciences) +3%.

    The most likely scenario, in my opinion, is that any 'retest[s]' of recent lows took place last week. After years of failed rallies, miners may be headed for outer space. The market has assured the trip will not be well-attended.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Not sure about the miners but EEM interests me a ton down here. I bought EDC as a leveraged play on that, thinking $36 for EEM is a great area for support. I was surprised to see the P&F target at $60:

      http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?s=eem

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    2. Michael, if you look at 1-year charts, you'll see that EEM is strongly correlated with GDX...

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    3. Which is to say that I like your optimism on EEM given my large GDX position. :)

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    4. That may be so in the short term but look at the list of holdings in EEM:


      Financials 29.39%
      Information Technology 17.08%
      Consumer Discretionary 9.01%
      Consumer Staples 8.40%
      Energy 7.65%
      Telecommunication Services 7.54%
      Industrials 7.33%
      Materials 6.74%
      Utilities 3.03%
      Health Care 2.61%
      Other/Undefined 1.22%

      I see a max of 14% of the entire ETF to energy and materials.

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  6. Nice finish from GDX. Traders might have panicked at the possibility of missing this rally and tried to pile back in at EOD. All in all, I would be surprised if GLD does not reach 110 during this rally, which should take GDX to above 17. At that point, I will be watching closely the level of commercial hedges on COMEX. When it rises above 100K contracts, I'll start taking profits on my GG/GDX calls that I recently purchased. If it rises to 200K contracts, I'll also close the GDX position I purchased today. See the chart below for a guide (the commercial hedge position is the red line in the middle chart):

    http://www.barchart.com/chart.php?sym=GCZ15&style=technical&template=&p=DN&d=X&sd=&ed=&size=M&log=0&t=BAR&v=0&g=1&evnt=1&late=1&o1=&o2=&o3=&sh=150&indicators=COTLC%2813369344%2C26112%2C153%29%3BCOTDLC%2813369344%2C26112%2C153%2C16750848%29&chartindicator_3_code=COTLC&chartindicator_3_param_0=13369344&chartindicator_3_param_1=26112&chartindicator_3_param_2=153&chartindicator_4_code=COTDLC&chartindicator_4_param_0=13369344&chartindicator_4_param_1=26112&chartindicator_4_param_2=153&chartindicator_4_param_3=16750848&addindicator=&submitted=1&fpage=&txtDate=#jump

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  7. I meant to mention I bought some PYPL today at $39.07. The valuation is ok, nothing fantastic. I'm just thinking this will follow the same trading pattern as TWTR / BABA / WING after its IPO: trade sideways for a little while and then pop 15 to 20%. If this doesn't happen, it's a great company and one I'm ok with holding.

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  8. Great chart from saut in light of last weeks ridiculously strong ism report

    http://www.raymondjames.com/images/inv_strat/150810_1.png

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  9. China surprises with a devaluation of the yuan, a change-up for global currency markets. Neighboring indexes reflexively sell off overnight.

    (a) EEM (Emerging markets) giving up all of yesterday's gains in the premarket session and then some. EWZ (Brazil) retracing about half of Monday's move.
    (b) Gold spikes in London: http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html
    (c) USO (Crude) off -1.6%.
    (d) DJIA futures off -100 points.

    One thing I recall in the final months of business school was that the smartest graduates competed for currency trading positions at top firms. FX is not a challenge I've even tried to understand. My only take on market reaction to the news is that snap judgments are likely to be wrong.

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  10. AAPL - Interesting it's red, considering they just received lower manufacturing costs.

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  11. Magic number for FCX today is 9.56.

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  12. MMYT - Nibbled @$14.10 but not really sure I comprehend how they can make money in travel business considering they own no hotels/motels/trains/planes/automobiles........

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    Replies
    1. And, PSEC seems to be leaving the station, which perplexes me.

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    2. Not sure I follow? Does pcln expe Ctrp etc own them?

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    3. AMZN owns major assets. Efficiency of logistics assets produces revenue, not dependent on habits and trends of millenials. currently advert $$ is chasing millenial "hangouts", right?

      pcln/expe actually sell stuff like amzn does, the model doesn't rely on advertising, is this incorrect?

      Delete
  13. MCRN - Earnings........
    DD - Sure has come off.

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  14. BXE - Wonder when debt holders assume ownership?

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  15. The opening -200 point selloff in the DJIA may seem like a bad thing. IMO, it's a good thing. It serves to wash out yesterday's 'feel good' and resets the sentiment meter. What we need is a durable low. The key phrase in this paragraph, of course, is 'IMO.'

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    Replies
    1. I would agree. Want to have people underinvested when the market does go, we get a chasing/melt up type market.

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    2. But it sure is a tedious market

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    3. Its beginning to look more like a downtrending market than up. Yesterday's rally was looking more and more like a short covering rally, much like we saw in 2008

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    4. This is based on the way the Dow and Russell 2000 are trading...the S&P is hanging on by a thread but my guess is that gives way too.

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    5. Maybe we can get a meltup starting at S&P 666..........

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  16. Holly Crap! I'm rich!!!.... Z says my home value went up $50K in the last 30 days.

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    Replies
    1. The builders must be busy, or they're missing out on opportunities. My home value in Austin never really appreciated b/c builders kept building new homes and nobody wanted a used house if they could buy new for the same price I paid.

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  17. MMYT magic number is 13.34 so I'll bid there.

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  18. China certainly is in bad shape if they must make such desperate moves.
    EWS - Low risk entry?

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    Replies
    1. Clearly EDZ was the play, not EDC! I'm sitting on a 7% hit right now on a 12% position. Brutal action.

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    2. I took the 7.5% hit on EDC. In hindsight, a gap down below multi year lows should have been reason to sell pre market.

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  19. Let's see if there's a rally now that the European markets are closed. Kind of feels like we should be buying YANG.

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    Replies
    1. Tough to do this but I bought some at $88. Will close it out by the end of the day.

      Delete
  20. RBA - I think these guys will be holding record auctions for a few years, considering bankruptcy rates are increasing again. I guess this is one reason for concern on PSEC.

    EPA disposes of toxic chemicals by dumping them in nearby rivers.

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  21. EXAS - Notice the gap up oblication has been closed (only momentarily, though). Chart is getting interesting now.but volume hasn't tipped favorably yet?

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  22. Oh-oh... QQQ is back below July 28 lows... The A/D line for QQQ is looking even worse now, and is already below yesterday's lows. I think this warrants getting back into TZA and setting a stop limit at yesterday's lows (for TZA), which I just did (with a somewhat larger position than I initially had).

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  23. CENX - Took off the 2/3 I added on the selloff, take that gain and maybe reload later but I wan'ted to raise cash, mainly, in case we do take another dive.

    BXE still stinks like rotten eggs, what a turd I cannot begin to explain the regret.

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  24. MMYT - Nice to see a lift off lows. But then again might be like EYES and fall out of channel.

    ALDW and RBA were the ones. Maybe still are, dunno.

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  25. Looks like the market is still above the close from Friday. So this could just be a shakeout. Close could be somewhat important in the short term.

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  26. UTI - Will they defend $5 ? I guess military personnel benefits are a tailwind?
    URI - Good for RBA, and not for MTW or UTI - "Industrial Machinery: Used equipment pricing slips in June – Rental update August 03, 2015"

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  27. ENPH- I put in an order for 5.71 before I left!

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    Replies
    1. Might still get it, never know. But great place to place an order, obviously.

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  28. BID - Is this an opportunity or should we anticipate further cascade?
    WMT - Price rollback good for WMT, I'd think.

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  29. FLY - Sure looks like a bull flag formation.

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  30. Grabbed some Z and PYPL today. I still think there's a chance this market sorts its weak self out and we get some upside movement.

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  31. I've seen the same buyer coming in all day on MMYT with 11,500 share bids. Mark?

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  32. US government property sales are providing increased revenue for the District as the properties become taxable, $59m of increased revenue so far. Notice a stock line WMT moves that much in a single day.

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  33. u guys ever heard of POZN? my old boss said he has been buying a little bit of it. It’s a pharma company. looks pricey to me but they’re growing revenues pretty rapidly and apparently they’re banking on this new aspirin they have coming out that has a slow release formulation that prevents ulcers for those one a day aspirin people. not really my comfort area so i’ll probably pass but just checking to see if you guys have heard of it

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    Replies
    1. Well there's an unopen gap up and it seems headed down........... That's all I know aside from the large companies seem to be acquiring their new products.

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    2. Some aspects explaining tailwinds.

      http://money.usnews.com/money/personal-finance/mutual-funds/articles/2015/08/04/15-stocks-to-capitalize-on-baby-boomer-trends

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  34. Replies
    1. So annoyed that I took my eye off the ball on this one.

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  35. VP Kerry says he expects Russians are reading his email.

    So no wonder the guy makes no sense when he speaks, it's all in coded language!

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  36. F - I'm wondering if the aluminum F150 is too light for pulling the family boat up the loading ramp?

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  37. Turning bullish.

    (a) I'll start by correcting yesterday's quote of Bernie Taupin's lyrics: 'It's lonely out in space.'
    (b) Today's selloff is a bullish development, clearing riffraff off the runway. That's an opinion, not a guarantee.
    (c) It's fear that sets the stage for a rally, and I like where it is today: http://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/
    (d) I plan to add a position in the SPYders at the close.
    (e) What effect will currency wars have on global markets? Even the best economists have no idea. If you think they do, try ex-Michigan Econ Prof John Hussman for relevant commentary.
    (f) GDX (miners) continue to rally, now up +1% after running its own snowplows earlier this morning.
    (g) Oil (USO) hits a 6-year low.
    (h) EEM off -2.38%, revisiting the same neighborhood it terrorized last week. EWZ (Brazil) -3.2%. RSX (Russia) -2.84%.
    (i) FCX was up +10% yesterday? It's off -13% today.

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  38. Regarding the broad stock market, I think you need to consider that the S&P 500 is doing very well in other currency terms. So for the broader, global investor, the S&P chart looks something like this:

    http://quote.morningstar.ca/quicktakes/etf/etf_ca.aspx?t=F00000P290&region=CAN&culture=en-CA

    It's in CDN $, but Euro would be about the same and it is quite good.

    So, I don't see US stocks as weakening so much as the US $ rise is causing things to look weak for US investors. If we see the US $ head back down at all, I think you'd see US stocks jump pretty quickly.

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  39. YANG...contemplating putting a small trade on overnight in case the shoe drops.

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    Replies
    1. If I look at the 1998 chart for the S&P 500 as a guide for the China collapse, it doesn't look like there's all that much more downside to the market. Maybe a fake breakdown below the lows last month but then a resumption of the uptrend.

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    2. Took the pass on the YANG long. Not worth the risk. Seems to me that this is all just noise that will result in higher prices. Plus, there are so many people bearish after this move that it doesn't make sense to see more pain right away. There are too many people on the negative side.

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  40. That's the type of action I want to see from GDX: when the market is up (yesterday), GDX is up strongly. When the market is down (today), GDX is still up! And it's nice to see it finish above the morning highs.

    As for the broad market, I would be leaning bullish if the A/D line today had declined less than the price:

    http://www.masterdata.com/Reports/Combined/ADLine/Daily/$RUT.htm

    It did not happen, however. As such, only a move above yesterday's highs would make me bullish in the very short term. For now, still holding TZA with a stop just below yesterday's lows (on TZA).

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    Replies
    1. Still holding TZA? Now that took balls, bro.

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  41. Long FOSL after hours at $59.50.

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    Replies
    1. They're guiding for $6.60 adjusted EPS so after hours this is trading at 9x EPS. Not sure if it bounces from here but worth a try.

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  42. EWZ (Brazil) up +2% after hours. Does anyone know the reason?

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    Replies
    1. Probably a good time to short it given the recent trends.

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  43. MMYT- Nope, not me. I did fill a large position again in ENPH at 6.71 though.

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  44. JONE- http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20150811006417/en/Fitch-Assigns-Initial-Ratings-Jones-Energy-Outlook#.Vcpo47cjjBI

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    Replies
    1. Fitch Ratings has assigned a Long-term Issuer Default Rating of 'B' to Jones Energy Holdings, LLC (JEH), a subsidiary of Jones Energy Inc. (NYSE: JONE)

      Delete
  45. I took a nibble on YANG after hours at $86.04.

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  46. Ended up selling fosl at 59 bc I have zero conviction right now

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  47. I took off a good chunk of my longs today. I'm reminded of the saying the first loss is the hardest yet often the best loss to take. I had my shot with mmyt at $16 the day after earnings yet passed. I would have only taken a 15% or so hit. Instead I'm down 25%

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  48. http://whalewisdom.com/filer/dalal-street-llc

    FCAU at 42%

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  49. Replies
    1. I'm glad to be long lots of cash. Been a tough year and I'm not about to sit thru a potential 15% drawdown

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    2. Either way this market risk isn't worth sitting thru until China is resolved and the risk from energy bankruptcies subsides and the market resumes a clearer trend. Spinning wheels is not fun

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    3. Personally 10% long, bought some BIIB and KMI yesterday and today, not your guys kind of stocks.

      Flat on BIIB and up on KMI. Flipped FCX today for dinner. OXY and BMXT holding and along with KMI are div plays, L hope. I have JUNO which reports AH tomorrow probably get smashed.

      Tough environment with not many prisoners today unless your BB with the AGO touch.

      I trust 2nd has his armor on.

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    4. SPX cash been bouncing off 200 dma since July with a few slight undercuts looks like tomorrow my be setting up for the same.

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    5. MMYT - So this one might not be in such a lucrative position? I've been wondering how they intend on generating revenue.... Doesn't add up in my head.

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  50. http://money.cnn.com/2015/08/11/investing/aquinox-biotech-stock-1000-johnson-and-johnson-pfizer/index.html?section=money_markets

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  51. NVDA - You guys still don't like NVDA?

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  52. AAPL - Maybe AAPL will restructure tonight and call themselves "Xylophone", then it rallies like an SOB tomorrow?

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  53. Asian indexes down hard overnight on further devaluation of the yuan.

    (a) EEM (Emerging Markets) off -1.75% pre-market. FXI ('H' Shares) -2.8%. EWZ (Brazil) flat. RSX (Russia) -0.9%.
    (b) Crude futures +1%. Gold pushing higher +0.85%. GDX (miners) +2%.
    (c) DJIA futures -122 points.
    (d) OIH (oil services) + XLE (energy) slightly off Tuesday's close.

    It should be a wild ride.

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  54. A tale of two markets.

    Global stocks selling off, but commodities attracting buyers. Bonds strangely 'silent.'

    DJIA off -190 points. SPX (Spyders) -1%. EEM (emerging markets, maybe we should say submerged markets) -2%. GDX (miners) +3.3%. OIH (oil services) +1%.

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  55. Taking profits on GDX (miners) @ 15.10, locking in a +15% gain.

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  56. ACM - Oh my, have BACML and JPM been misleading investors? Imagine that, someone wants to mislead you.... More often than not.

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  57. Have scanned the article, seems detailed, relates to NM

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/3426566-navios-midstream-tremendous-income-potential-on-a-fire-sale

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  58. Added to ENPH @ 5.12...I know, I know.....

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  59. Ludicrous thought....I close green today.

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  60. Uncertainty

    24/7 Wall St. wanted to evaluate the upside or downside prospects for some of the key stocks that have already pulled back handily from their highs. Before thinking too aggressively here, it is impossible to ever know if oversold stocks will recover. Some oversold stocks can have larger problems than were priced in, and investors should never, ever try to take “all-in” bets on a bottom. Trying to catch falling daggers can be quite painful.


    http://247wallst.com/healthcare-business/2015/08/12/5-top-biopharma-stocks-that-may-have-sold-off-too-much-and-become-bargains/2/

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    Replies
    1. One falling dagger I'd like to catch at some point is XON, but it would have to be at much lower prices, like $30

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    2. Intrexon, never heard of that one before, interesting.

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    3. Found it from Bill Miller maybe 6 months ago:
      http://www.cnbc.com/2015/02/09/heres-where-bill-miller-sees-opportunity.html

      Delete
    4. Sorry this one be better:
      http://www.gurufocus.com/news/315541/bill-miller-identifies-what-could-be-the-stock-of-the-decade

      They do synthetic biology which is a pretty wild technology. Revenues have been exploding, but it's EXTREMELY expensive.

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  61. if biotechs tank then we could see some real panic. otherwise, i'm still seeing dip buying (see Z, AAPL, oil, NFLX rebounding, etc).

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    Replies
    1. A Nice Time Of Year – My friend and fellow trading veteran, Jeff Saut, the chief investment strategist at
      Raymond James has been talking about his "buy zone" of August 13th through the 18th.
      Separately, the folks over at Bespoke Investment Group said that "Over the last 10 years, the S&P has seen a
      median gain of 1.07% from 8/10 through 8/24, with positive returns 60% of the time."
      Chance favors the prepared mind.

      Delete
  62. David- You're probably waking up soon. Nice calls on both TZA + GDX, bro.

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    Replies
    1. Thanks, 2nd_ave. My GDX conviction to the point of buying calls on it when it was $13 partly stemmed from you turning bullish on GDX at about the same time. And, of course, from the extremely low levels of commercial hedging on COMEX, which no one should ignore even those with negative or uncertain long-term outlook on gold. Gold will be in a clear rally mode until the commercial hedges rise to 100K contracts.

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    2. Nice play. What's your upside target on that?

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    3. As for my TZA entry, I was just entering what seemed like the early stages of a downtrend, with 3 lower highs and 3 lower lows on IWM. Even though the other indices did not have such a pattern at that point, the A/D line for QQQ looked horrible and showed a clear divergence with the price. So entering TZA and placing a tight stop (which I did) was not such a risky entry. I am extra glad, though, that I got the money for my TZA and GDX positions from selling my ORCL call options when it was trading near $40. If I still held onto those calls, I would be down 20% instead of being up 20%...

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    4. Michael, I *hope* that GLD will rally to at least $110 before the current rally fizzles out. This should take GDX above $18. However, the trigger for my selling of GDX will not be a certain price of GLD/GDX -- it will be the level of commercial hedges on COMEX rising above 100K contracts, which would mean that the balance of potential buyers vs. sellers of gold is becoming more even. If commercial hedges rise to 200K contracts, then the balance will clearly shift in the direction of sellers, so I'll exit all my positions.

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  63. I mad a few moves today. I sold some more MMYT, picked up a short in IBB around $362, and added a little YANG at $92.80. I still see too many dip buyers. We need a real washout is my thinking...and I'd rather be short the weakest link right now than long the strongest. Open to changing my opinion if sentiment gets super negative.

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  64. XON, very interesting, Miller mentioned MD Anderson collaboration with XON where I went. This also has to do with CAR T and working with infusion of autologous T cells and universal off the self T cells. Within ten years most likely will revolutionize cancer treatment but be very expensive.

    Thanks for pointing out.

    http://investors.dna.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=249599&p=irol-newsArticle&ID=2007391

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  65. Shorted FXI at $39.87. Just looking at day trades right now and thinking this little dip buying will get reversed.

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  66. OXY sold, just hit the 50 dma so possible resistence.

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    Replies
    1. KMI sold, like both at lower prices

      Delete
    2. interesting to see strength in XLE. feels bouncy here...

      Delete
    3. If you like on that rips around look at AREX. I prefer less excited in this environment.

      I suspect large oil equities stabilize and go up here unless oil goes to 30, than all bets off.

      SPX 2pts below 200 dma

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    4. I've been watching a lot of energy stocks and comparing their levels with levels from back when oil was down here. CBI is the best performing one that I track, so far.

      Delete
  67. I bought some XBI Puts expiring Sept 4. Strike is $195. Bought em at $1. Not really a large amount but I think if we do get a crash the downside potential is $150 which would make these a 45-bagger if it hits. If not obviously it goes to $0. I will put a small amount into this over each of the next few weeks with an expiration date 3-4 weeks out. I figure now is a good time to do this because crashes typically occur from oversold readings, XBI is now below prior support, and XBI is much more speculative than IBB. I closed my short earlier on IBB and will just keep these options as a way to play this potential.

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  68. XON rallied 7% since you mentioned it.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. This all seems a bit short covering-ish to me. I'm keeping my cash on hand just in case we get a better chance to buy lower. A 3.9% correction seems a bit light to me. Could be wrong, but I'll wait a little still...

      Delete
    2. owns 59% of XON

      http://whalewisdom.com/filer/third-security-llc

      Delete
  69. Looks like my TZA position will finish in the red today... :) At least GDX is green for now. :)

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  70. Cashin just said something really important, paraphrasing, you only survive 50 years in this business looking for an exit sign every time you walk into the room.

    Mostly on China, doubts FEDS raise in SEP.

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/cashin-wall-streets-real-china-163831717.html?l=1

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    Replies
    1. I know everyone likes this guy....he seems like a nice guy. but he's always seemed bearish / skeptical to me since this bull market began.

      Delete
  71. Another 200 point upside day in the Dow tomorrow seems likely. Close at the highs of the day. Would be the pain trade here.

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  72. That's a pretty big reversal for the indices today. IWM is back up above the July 28 intraday lows, which is my "line in the sand." Also, TZA has just dropped back to my yesterday's entry point. Putting these two together, I just closed my TZA flat. Yet another reason for doing so is that I'll be driving toward Mt. Shasta tomorrow morning, with the intent of ascending the summit this weekend. So I won't be able to watch the markets on Thurs and Fri. As such, I am leaving the only positions I am comfortable with -- GDX and its calls.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Wow - that looks like a great climb. What's your plan?

      Delete
  73. Took off my YANG from yesterday / this morning. Closed out the short on FXI. Keeping the XBI puts on since they're already essentially worthless. The rebound today should carry thru to tomorrow I would think. Get the dow back up to Monday's close.

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  74. The perfect save. Both the DJIA + SPX now in positive territory following the early morning plunge. If you took the pitch, you have runners positioned on first and third.

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  75. My SORL buy sure was poorly timed, now down from $2.50 to $1.93.

    Earnings out on the 14th. It generally bounces with earnings and I'm pretty sure they will be fine, so will be interesting to see the reaction this qtr.

    Or if China gets their act together, I would think it would bounce. Generally I like buying stocks which are being pushed down far below their fair value because of extraneous circumstances, but because this is China, I will probably just stay with what I have.

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  76. Any tourists in the market disembarked this morning.

    GDX (miners) will close +6.5%. OIH (oil services) +1.5%.

    EEM (emerging markets) -1.58%. EWZ (Brazil) and FXI ('H' Shares) well off earlier lows. PBR (Petrobras) +2.5%. FCX (Freeport McMoran) reverses from yet another 52-wk low to finish green. RSX (Russia) flat.

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  77. I grabbed dis and pypl today. ESPN is worth a ton. I bet they could get 40-50 million subscribers worldwide paying $25 a month for ESPN.

    Also bought a small position in shak. Shak is so ridiculously priced but I do think it has a chance of becoming a bit of a cult type restaurant and growing into a $3b+ valuation

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  78. On a second thought about gold, the COMEX position reports come out on Fridays and report positions as of previous Tuesday. So if gold keeps rallying into Friday, the COMEX report will be way behind. So I may be too late in detecting when the producer short positions cross the 100K level. As such, I decided to place a sell limit order for my most risky GDX-related position -- January 2016 $13 calls (I purchased them on Monday at $2.20 and I just placed a sell limit at $4.20, so as to make a 2K gain). The remaining calls are January 2017, so I can hold them for a while longer.

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  79. Hahaha. Quote of the day
    "Shake shack (SHAK) and Twitter (TWTR) to merge. New symbol SHTR."

    ReplyDelete
  80. SEDG killed the Q AH. I'm going to get killed tomorrow.

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    Replies
    1. you think? i was looking at this one after hours.

      Delete
  81. Reopened the position in GDX (miners) on this morning's -4.5% selloff.

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  82. Sold stock MA.TO, the Quebec truck maker who was going through a sell process I mentioned before. They announced a buyout at $10.20.

    Was good for an 11% gain in 4 months, so 28% annualized, so happy with that, especially in this market.

    AEG, another holding of mine, down almost 10% on weak results. Still trying to fully understand them, as most of this miss was due to hedges not acting properly and usually hedges net out over time, so just reading the concall transcript.

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  83. ENPH- Sold 2/3 5.85-5.72. Took for ever and I'm sure I changed the order flow. SEDG not doing nearly as well as I thought.

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  84. Leuhold Group, good weekend reading, something for everyone here almost.

    30/30 club

    https://www.scribd.com/fullscreen/274314563?access_key=key-hGBKInjTgFIYQR8iabFg&allow_share=true&escape=false&view_mode=scroll

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  85. TRIP - Umm, maybe this one was overpriced, eh?

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  86. SEDG - That's killing it? As in murder? :)

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  87. BIS - I think I'm ready, what's keeping us from doing this one?

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  88. KMI trying to get 32.37, if not have to decide to pay up or pass.

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  89. UHS - Do you guys think this stock would've done so well if it weren't for the health care bill, or do you think that provided a majority of the tailwinds? Just curious...

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  90. Long YANG at $89.37. I think we have some unfinished business there...

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  91. MMYT - Not looking good, wow still collapsing/ Stay away from falling knives.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I'm glad I sold a bunch but not glad I bought it originally...

      Delete
  92. AMT - This one's getting it on, as if cellphones are here to stay.

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  93. California is demanding zero emissions vehicles.

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    Replies
    1. What will the bodies be made of..., plastic, carbon fiber, steel, aluminum? Must be recyclable....

      Delete
  94. WM - Somebody has to haul the garbage off and sort it for recycling, right? Seems like a no-brainer.

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  95. SUNE and/or PBD - Looking good here?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I can't touch SUNE with that balance.

      Delete
    2. sorry with that balance sheet

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    3. How about GS, you know they never have a bad trade. But, is that on behalf of shareholders or insiders?

      Delete
    4. On SUNI, we'd have to rely on a Federal bailout, huh?

      Delete
  96. The explosions and fire really look to have f'd up that port, just saw this on TV and sheesh it's a royal mess.

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  97. GGAL - Breaking out. I won't mention it again.

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  98. PSEC - Way over the trend line, we're going for the parallel descending channel on this one.

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  99. NEWM - Leon Cooperman is still buying, as of yesterday.

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  100. MAT - Goldman has a buy on this one! WTF?

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  101. SORL back to $2.50 from under $2.00 yesterday on solid earnings.

    Forecast for the year is $14 million in earnings and market cap is $48 million, so p/e less than 4. Unless this is a fraud, which I'm quite certain it isn't, hard to see this doesn't work.

    ReplyDelete